Posted June 18, 201212 yr Crime has been in the news lately, most recently in a report that stated that national crime rates continued their general fall in 2011, part of a long-term decline. There are many theories out there about why crime is going down, but regardless of the causes, national rates are approaching levels not seen since the 1940s. Anyone who tells you crime is worse now than it used to be, especially given the way the news sensationalizes it all, really doesn't have the facts. The FBI's uniform crime stats are collected each year for agencies nationwide. You can search through them for cities from 1985-2010, and they have a link on their main page for the recently released 2011 numbers. I put them all together for Ohio's major cities since 1990 and here's what I came up with on how they've been changing in the state. I'll do a profile for each of Ohio's largest cities based on 5-year increments. Akron Murder Totals by Year 1990: 18 1995: 18 2000: 3 2005: 27 2010: 23 2011: 27 Rape 1990: 193 1995: 209 2000: 92 2005: 194 2010:164 2011: 164 Aggravated Assault 1990: 1,600 1995: 1,166 2000: 143 2005: 443 2010: 886 2011: 860 Robbery 1990: 773 1995: 875 2000: 372 2005: 625 2010: 602 2011: 717 Burglary 1990: 3,513 1995: 2,792 2000: 1,362 2005: 3,441 2010: 4,262 2011: 4,258 Larceny Theft 1990: 9,730 1995: 8,824 2000: 3,278 2005: 7,358 2010: 5,933 2011: 5,744 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 1,669 1995: 2,017 2000: 838 2005: 1,392 2010: 752 2011: 804 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 2,584 1995: 2,268 2000: 610 2005: 1,279 2010: 1,675 2011: 1,768 Total Property Crimes 1990: 14,912 1995: 13,633 2000: 5,478 2005: 12,191 2010: 10,947 2011: 10,806 Akron is probably the worst performing city in the state right now as far as trends go. While there were big drops in the 1990s, crime has generally been rising or holding steady at a higher level in most catergories since then. Still, in most cases, crime is down overall for the entire 1990-2011 period.
June 18, 201212 yr Cincinnati Murder 1990: 49 1995: 50 2000: 22 2005: 79 2010: 68 2011: 61 Rape 1990: 388 1995: 408 2000: 284 2005: 324 2010: 236 2011: 177 Aggravated Assault 1990: 2,426 1995: 2,027 2000: 1,073 2005: 1,010 2010: 1,194 2011: 1,048 Robbery 1990: 1,613 1995: 2,155 2000: 1,404 2005: 2,319 2010: 2,117 2011: 1,771 Burglary 1990: 5,896 1995: 5,366 2000: 4,960 2005: 5,439 2010: 6,515 2011: 6,649 Larceny Theft 1990: 15,458 1995: 15,012 2000: 12,440 2005: 14,077 2010: 12,466 2011: 12,450 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 1,677 1995: 1,913 2000: 2,029 2005: 2,956 2010: 1,619 2011: 1,270 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 4,476 1995: 4,640 2000: 2,783 2005: 3,732 2010: 3,615 2011: 3,057 Total Property Crimes 1990: 23,031 1995: 22,291 2000: 19,429 2005: 22,472 2010: 20,600 2011: 20,369 Cincinnati followed a pattern where crime dropped through the 1990s, bottomed out in 2000, rose through mid-decade and have been generally falling again since. 2011 is generally the low point or near the low point.
June 18, 201212 yr Cleveland Murder 1990: 168 1995: 129 2000: 71 2005: 109 2010: 81 2011: 59 Rape 1990: 846 1995: 689 2000: 615 2005: 485 2010: 344 2011: 352 Aggravated Assault 1990: 3,259 1995: 3,108 2000: 2,271 2005: 2,089 2010: 1,923 2011: 1,847 Robbery 1990: 4,917 1995: 4,224 2000: 3,084 2005: 3,744 2010: 3,181 2011: 3,155 Burglary 1990: 10,198 1995: 7,693 2000: 7,435 2005: 8,624 2010: 9,871 2011: 10,697 Larceny Theft 1990: 15,289 1995: 13,764 2000: 12,969 2005: 13,238 2010: 10,131 2011: 10,502 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 11,408 1995: 9,058 2000: 6,139 2005: 6,809 2010: 3,510 2011: 4,089 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 9,190 1995: 8,150 2000: 6,041 2005: 6,427 2010: 5,529 2011: 5,413 Total Property Crimes 1990: 36,895 1995: 30,515 2000: 26,543 2005: 28,671 2010: 23,512 2011: 25,288 In most cases, Cleveland's rates have been consistently falling. Year to year changes might be higher, such as 2010 to 2011, but the trends have been clear and did not really see the mid-decade rise that other cities saw, such as Cincinnati. Cleveland has probably had one of the best drops overall of all the cities.
June 18, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 Yeah, I thought so too, but that's what the FBI has for them. You'll notice, though, that almost everyone saw significant drops in 2000. Maybe it was a millenial thing.
June 18, 201212 yr Columbus Murder 1990: 89 1995: 77 2000: 67 2005: 103 2010: 95 2011: 87 Rape 1990: 647 1995: 636 2000: 578 2005: 557 2010: 574 2011: 565 Aggravated Assault 1990: 2,745 1995: 2,582 2000: 2,255 2005: 1,733 2010: 1,434 2011: 1,289 Robbery 1990: 3,541 1995: 3,329 2000: 3,098 2005: 3,810 2010: 3,369 2011: 3,244 Burglary 1990: 14,828 1995: 13,126 2000: 13,600 2005: 14,714 2010: 15,258 2011: 15,169 Larceny Theft 1990: 32,387 1995: 31,905 2000: 36,316 2005: 32,181 2010: 30,906 2011: 30,259 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 8,466 1995: 7,040 2000: 7,180 2005: 8,014 2010: 4,159 2011: 3,615 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 7,022 1995: 6,624 2000: 5,998 2005: 6,203 2010: 5,472 2011: 5,185 Total Property Crimes 1990: 55,681 1995: 52,091 2000: 57,096 2005: 54,909 2010: 50,323 2011: 49,043 Columbus does not seem to follow any pattern. 2000 saw rises where other cities saw big drops, some rates rose mid-decade while others consistently fell. The bottom line is that 2011 saw rates near or at their low point in most cases.
June 18, 201212 yr The riots in Cincinnati in 2001 had very strange effects on crime rates, including basically a doubling of murders which continues to this day.
June 18, 201212 yr The riots in Cincinnati in 2001 had very strange effects on crime rates, including basically a doubling of murders which continues to this day. It's interesting to me that most every other category of crime has since fallen to pre-riot levels, except for murders. There's got to be a connection somewhere between the police "backing off" a bit after the riots, since returning to stricter enforcement, and criminals still thinking they can get away with murder, but I just can't quite put my finger on it.
June 18, 201212 yr I would be interested to see how full the jails are now and back then. I still believe they should start striping criminals of their natural born citizenship here. Send them to Samolia. Crime will GUARANTEE to sky rocket down. Murders death penalty.
June 18, 201212 yr The rest of the cities. Dayton Murder 1990: 47 1995: 39 2000: 32 2005: 32 2010: 34 2011: 33 Rape 1990: 321 1995: 237 2000: 152 2005: 142 2010: 93 2011: 98 Aggravated Assault 1990: 1,246 1995: 789 2000: 701 2005: 512 2010: 602 2011: 586 Robbery 1990: 1,475 1995: 1,360 2000: 1,180 2005: 851 2010: 782 2011: 638 Burglary 1990: 4,678 1995: 4,022 2000: 3,749 2005: 3,234 2010: 3,390 2011: 3,121 Larceny Theft 1990: 10,155 1995: 9,357 2000: 7,435 2005: 6,041 2010: 4,882 2011: 4,569 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 2,973 1995: 3,145 2000: 3,207 2005: 2,211 2010: 673 2011: 633 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 3,089 1995: 2,425 2000: 2,065 2005: 1,537 2010: 1,511 2011: 1,355 Total Property Crimes 1990: 17,806 1995: 16,524 2000: 14,391 2005: 11,486 2010: 8,945 2011: 8,323 Dayton is most similar to Cleveland, seeing most catergories seeing consistent, steady drops. This includes burglary, which most other cities saw some rises post 2005 because of the economy.
June 18, 201212 yr Not all cities had complete info. Toledo, for example, did not gather crime stats that were up to FBI standards, so some years weren't included. Toledo Murder 1990: 37 1995: 35 2000: 12 2005: 28 2010: 23 2011: 30 Rape 1990: 422 1995: 278 2000: 163 2005: 179 2010: 140 2011: 124 Aggravated Assault 1990: 1,334 1995: 1,146 2000: 1,175 2005: 2,162 2010: 1,594 2011: 1,562 Robbery 1990: 1,748 1995: 1,414 2000: 1,030 2005: 1,356 2010: 1,097 2011: 1,152 Burglary 1990: 6,268 1995: 6,298 2000: 5,105 2005: 7,101 2010: 7,287 2011: 8,366 Larceny Theft 1990: 17,571 1995: 14,821 2000: 13,805 2005: 13,331 2010: N/A 2011: N/A Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 4,614 1995: 3,204 2000: 2,737 2005: 3,198 2010: 1,197 2011: 1,465 Total Violent Crimes 1990: 3,541 1995: 2,873 2000: 2,380 2005: 3,724 2010: 2,854 2011: 2,868 Total Property Crimes 1990: 28,453 1995: 24,323 2000: 21,647 2005: 23,630 2010: N/A 2011: N/A Toledo is another city without strong trends in most catergories. Some are going down, some up, some are staying steady.
June 18, 201212 yr I would be interested to see how full the jails are now and back then. I still believe they should start striping criminals of their natural born citizenship here. Send them to Samolia. Crime will GUARANTEE to sky rocket down. Murders death penalty. Not sure how we could get away with deporting criminals to another country, assuming without their permission, and I can't imagine why they would agree to it. Incidentally, in regards to prisons, I just read an article not long ago about how Ohio's prison population has declined in recent years.
June 18, 201212 yr Finally, Youngstown Murder 1990: 19 1995: 66 2000: 32 2005: 37 2010: 25 2011: N/A Rape 1990: 64 1995: 62 2000: 40 2005: 60 2010: 28 2011: N/A Aggravated Assault 1990: 644 1995: 791 2000: 537 2005: 476 2010: 406 2011: N/A Robbery 1990: 580 1995: 650 2000: 358 2005: 347 2010: 235 2011: N/A Burglary 1990: 2,442 1995: 2,043 2000: 1,972 2005: 1,718 2010: 2,101 2011: N/A Larceny Theft 1990: 2,876 1995: 2,465 2000: 2,707 2005: 2,217 2010: 1,806 2011: N/A Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 1,060 1995: 973 2000: 650 2005: 765 2010: 523 2011: N/A Total Violent Crimes 1990: 1,307 1995: 1,569 2000: 967 2005: 920 2010: 694 2011: N/A Total Property Crimes 1990: 6,378 1995: 5,481 2000: 5,329 2005: 4,700 2010: 4,430 2011: N/A Youngstown is following most cities in a gradual drop of rates, with some exceptions.
June 18, 201212 yr Just legalize drugs and we will probably see a huge decrease in crime and prison population and an increase in tax revenue.
June 18, 201212 yr I would be interested to see how full the jails are now and back then. I still believe they should start striping criminals of their natural born citizenship here. Send them to Samolia. Crime will GUARANTEE to sky rocket down. Murders death penalty. Not sure how we could get away with deporting criminals to another country, assuming without their permission, and I can't imagine why they would agree to it. Incidentally, in regards to prisons, I just read an article not long ago about how Ohio's prison population has declined in recent years. Just label repeat violent offenders terrorists. Then get them out of here. There is laws on the books that you can do that to terrorists. Citizens or not.
June 19, 201212 yr I would be interested to see how full the jails are now and back then. I still believe they should start striping criminals of their natural born citizenship here. Send them to Samolia. Crime will GUARANTEE to sky rocket down. Murders death penalty. Not sure how we could get away with deporting criminals to another country, assuming without their permission, and I can't imagine why they would agree to it. Incidentally, in regards to prisons, I just read an article not long ago about how Ohio's prison population has declined in recent years. Just label repeat violent offenders terrorists. Then get them out of here. There is laws on the books that you can do that to terrorists. Citizens or not. Just stop dude - it's not funny, practical, reasonable, moral, et al... just stop
June 19, 201212 yr I would be interested to see how full the jails are now and back then. I still believe they should start striping criminals of their natural born citizenship here. Send them to Samolia. Crime will GUARANTEE to sky rocket down. Murders death penalty. Not sure how we could get away with deporting criminals to another country, assuming without their permission, and I can't imagine why they would agree to it. Incidentally, in regards to prisons, I just read an article not long ago about how Ohio's prison population has declined in recent years. Just label repeat violent offenders terrorists. Then get them out of here. There is laws on the books that you can do that to terrorists. Citizens or not. AFAIK, you can't just deport people, no matter what you label them, to random countries without their consent, not to mention the constitutional problems this would present.
June 19, 201212 yr Just legalize drugs and we will probably see a huge decrease in crime and prison population and an increase in tax revenue. and a huge boost in tourism
June 19, 201212 yr Sadly, once per capita is figured the data won't be so positive, considering how many folks Cincy and Cleveland alone lost over that period.
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down?
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? Well, no doubt the economy was doing well in the late 1990s-2000, but that certainly doesn't explain why crime rates generally dropped through the recession as well.
June 19, 201212 yr Okay, so here are the rankings in 2011 based on crimes per 100,000 people. Rankings are highest to lowest. Some cities may not be listed because of a lack of data for 2011. Murder 1. Dayton: 23.2 2. Cincinnati: 20.5 3. Cleveland: 14.9 4. Akron: 13.6 5. Columbus: 11.0 6. Toledo: 10.5 Rape 1. Cleveland: 88.7 2. Akron: 82.4 3. Columbus: 71.7 4. Dayton: 69.0 5. Cincinnati: 59.6 6. Toledo: 43.2 Assault 1. Toledo: 544.3 2. Cleveland: 465.2 3. Akron: 432.2 4. Dayton: 412.7 5. Cincinnati: 352.9 6. Columbus: 163.6 Robbery 1. Cleveland: 794.7 2. Cincinnati: 596.3 3. Dayton: 449.3 4. Columbus: 411.7 5. Toledo: 401.4 6. Akron: 360.3 Burglary 1. Toledo: 2,914.6 2. Cleveland: 2,694.5 3. Cincinnati: 2,238.7 4. Dayton: 2,197.9 5. Akron: 2,140.0 6. Columbus: 1,925.0 Larceny Theft 1. Cincinnati: 4,191.9 2. Columbus: 3,840.0 3. Dayton: 3,217.6 4. Akron: 2,886.0 5. Cleveland: 2,645.3 Motor Vehicle Theft 1. Cleveland: 1,030.0 2. Toledo: 510.1 3. Columbus: 458.8 4. Dayton: 445.8 5. Cincinnati: 427.6 6. Akron: 404.0 Total Violent Crime Rate 1. Cleveland: 1,363.5 2. Cincinnati: 1,029.3 3. Toledo: 999.3 4. Dayton: 954.2 5. Akron: 888.4 6. Columbus: 658.0 Total Property Crime Rate 1. Cincinnati: 6,858.2 2. Cleveland: 6,369.8 3. Columbus: 6223.7 4. Dayton: 5,861.3 5. Akron: 5,430.2
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? Well, no doubt the economy was doing well in the late 1990s-2000, but that certainly doesn't explain why crime rates generally dropped through the recession as well. Population decrease?
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? Well, no doubt the economy was doing well in the late 1990s-2000, but that certainly doesn't explain why crime rates generally dropped through the recession as well. Population decrease? Doesn't explain Columbus. Plus these are national trends, occurring in growing and declining cities alike.
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? I took that into account. I expected some drop, but the level of Akron's drop is suspect. Just take a look at the numbers. Just a wild guess... but perhaps there were some federal programs which incentivized the City to underreport its numbers?
June 19, 201212 yr I've heard that Akron has laid off fewer cops than its competitors on these lists, because their obstinate union wouldn't take layoffs for an answer. One thing I've noticed since moving to Akron is that cops are a lot more visible on city streets. I really do believe that police presence pays dividends.
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? Well, no doubt the economy was doing well in the late 1990s-2000, but that certainly doesn't explain why crime rates generally dropped through the recession as well. Population decrease? Doesn't explain Columbus. Plus these are national trends, occurring in growing and declining cities alike. I dont think Columbus can be compared to the rest of the post-industrial Ohio cities. Its a unique place in where it has annexed alot of its suburban area. Its city is essentially safe, suburb like territory with the exception of the small pockets near downtown and east of downtown. I wouldnt expect Columbus crime to be consistant with Cleve, Akron, Cincy.
June 19, 201212 yr That is a fairly suspicious drop for the Akron MSA around 2000 here's my theory: Post Clinton years. Economy was pretty good at that point. Economy and jobs good, crime down? Well, no doubt the economy was doing well in the late 1990s-2000, but that certainly doesn't explain why crime rates generally dropped through the recession as well. Population decrease? Doesn't explain Columbus. Plus these are national trends, occurring in growing and declining cities alike. I dont think Columbus can be compared to the rest of the post-industrial Ohio cities. Its a unique place in where it has annexed alot of its suburban area. Its city is essentially safe, suburb like territory with the exception of the small pockets near downtown and east of downtown. I wouldnt expect Columbus crime to be consistant with Cleve, Akron, Cincy. However, we are talking about trends in crime rates, not the physical makeup of cities. Again, crime is falling in the vast majority of cities no matter what their population is, whether or not they're growing or declining, industrial rust belt or sun belt boomtown. It's across the board. In that case, Columbus is no different and indicates other factors at play rather than population trends.
June 20, 201212 yr Finally, Youngstown Murder 1990: 19 1995: 66 2000: 32 2005: 37 2010: 35 2011: N/A Rape 1990: 64 1995: 62 2000: 40 2005: 60 2010: 28 2011: N/A Aggravated Assault 1990: 644 1995: 791 2000: 537 2005: 476 2010: 406 2011: N/A Robbery 1990: 580 1995: 650 2000: 358 2005: 347 2010: 235 2011: N/A Burglary 1990: 2,442 1995: 2,043 2000: 1,972 2005: 1,718 2010: 2,101 2011: N/A Larceny Theft 1990: 2,876 1995: 2,465 2000: 2,707 2005: 2,217 2010: 1,806 2011: N/A Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 1,060 1995: 973 2000: 650 2005: 765 2010: 523 2011: N/A Total Violent Crimes 1990: 1,307 1995: 1,569 2000: 967 2005: 920 2010: 694 2011: N/A Total Property Crimes 1990: 6,378 1995: 5,481 2000: 5,329 2005: 4,700 2010: 4,430 2011: N/A Youngstown is following most cities in a gradual drop of rates, with some exceptions. I can't speak for the other crimes, but murder is fairly easy to keep track of. And, I'm pretty sure we had closer to 25 murders in 2010. (and even fewer in 2011)
June 20, 201212 yr Finally, Youngstown Murder 1990: 19 1995: 66 2000: 32 2005: 37 2010: 35 2011: N/A Rape 1990: 64 1995: 62 2000: 40 2005: 60 2010: 28 2011: N/A Aggravated Assault 1990: 644 1995: 791 2000: 537 2005: 476 2010: 406 2011: N/A Robbery 1990: 580 1995: 650 2000: 358 2005: 347 2010: 235 2011: N/A Burglary 1990: 2,442 1995: 2,043 2000: 1,972 2005: 1,718 2010: 2,101 2011: N/A Larceny Theft 1990: 2,876 1995: 2,465 2000: 2,707 2005: 2,217 2010: 1,806 2011: N/A Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 1,060 1995: 973 2000: 650 2005: 765 2010: 523 2011: N/A Total Violent Crimes 1990: 1,307 1995: 1,569 2000: 967 2005: 920 2010: 694 2011: N/A Total Property Crimes 1990: 6,378 1995: 5,481 2000: 5,329 2005: 4,700 2010: 4,430 2011: N/A Youngstown is following most cities in a gradual drop of rates, with some exceptions. I can't speak for the other crimes, but murder is fairly easy to keep track of. And, I'm pretty sure we had closer to 25 murders in 2010. (and even fewer in 2011) 2011 doesn't seem to be available yet on the FBI site, that's why it's not listed here. And you're right, it was 25 in 2010. I had it as 25 on my spreadsheet but put it down wrong here. Changed it on the list.
June 20, 201212 yr jbcmh, You're 2011 homicide numbers for Cleveland are off. Maybe 59 is what they reported to the Feds, but it is a bogus number (and I've seen some similar instances where other cities way under-report their murder numbers to the Feds, not just Cleveland). According the the Plain Dealer, Cleveland had 88 murders in 2011. Here's the article http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/12/cleveland_homicides_up_in_2011.html I take it the Plain Dealer got the numbers directly from the Cleveland Police Department since there are quotes from the chief. At 88 murders, the rate is roughly 22.2 per 100,000, which has been about average for the last 20 years, but significantly lower than other years since 2005. Off the top of my head, I believe the rate has been as low as 15 (in the late 90s) and as high as the mid 30s in the early 90s. It has reached the low 30s as recently as 2009 when there were 122 murders (though the feds show the number as 86.) Overall, the Fedstats numbers for Cleveland seem to be in line with what has been reported by local sources up until 2006. Since then, they have been vastly under-reported in every year but 2010. For example, in 2008 Fedstats has Cleveland for 55 for the year, the actual number was 102 (the 55 number was what Cleveland was at at the mid-year report and Fedstats kept the same number for the end-of-year number). Cleveland's actual 50 year low is 75, which was almost matched in 2010 (though the population is half what it was the last time so few homicides had occurred). Cleveland's more accurate numbers since 2005 are: 2005- 114 (Festats lists 109) 2006- 119 (Fedstats lists 77) 2007- 134 (Fedstats lists 90) 2008- 102 (Fedstats lists 55) 2009- 122* (Fedstats list 86) (11 were the Sowell victims who weren't all killed in 2009.) 2010- 77 (Fedstats lists 81) 2011- 88 (Fedstats doesn't have a number, but the 59 you used is off). Overall, yes, the stats have been better for Cleveland the last two years when compared to the five before that, but it still has had an alarmingly high overall homicide rate. Even the 77 in 2010 represents a rate of 19.4, which is good compared to what it had been recently, but still way too high. If anything, Cleveland is trending away from being one of the 10 most dangerous cities (like it had been from 2005-2009) to one of the 30 most dangerous (like it was for much of the 90s to mid-2000s). One more thing, you didn't mention Canton, but it's been an intriguing city to follow recently. It has traditionally been on the more dangerous side (making the top 50 most dangerous several times by morgan quinto when it qualified for the rankings), but has now seen a drastic see-saw in its murders. In 2009, there were 14 (which tied as a the most ever in the city ... though it was a probably a slight abberation since there were two triple-murders in the city that year). But in 2010 the number went down to 2 (which was a 45-year low). Then in 2011, the number jumped to 17 (which was easily the city's all-time high). But this year, there are only 3 so far (IIRC) and two of those happened in January. So, if it holds up, 2012 will be another on the safer end for the city (which has averaged about 9 per year). I don't know what it means, but interesting nonetheless.
June 20, 201212 yr All murders are homicides, but not all homicides are murders. That might explain the difference in figures.
June 20, 201212 yr Ive always thought this was an interesting way to compare Cleveland to Columbus Cuyahoga County - 2010 Land - 457.19 sq mi Population - 1,280,122 Homicides - 98 Columbus - 2010 Land - 210.3 sq mi Population - 787,033 Homicides - 105
June 20, 201212 yr Ive always thought this was an interesting way to compare Cleveland to Columbus Cuyahoga County - 2010 Land - 457.19 sq mi Population - 1,280,122 Homicides - 98 Columbus - 2010 Land - 210.3 sq mi Population - 787,033 Homicides - 105 What do the numbers look like if you include all of Franklin County?
June 20, 201212 yr ^ I couldnt find Franklin County homicide numbers. That was going to be my original comparison because Cuyahoga County at 457.19 sq miles is close to Franklin County at 532.19 sq miles. I settled on using just Columbus numbers and found it fascinating to see that Columbus has more homicides, than a much larger, geographically and population wise, Cuyahoga County.
June 20, 201212 yr ^ I couldnt find Franklin County homicide numbers. That was going to be my original comparison because Cuyahoga County at 457.19 sq miles is close to Franklin County at 532.19 sq miles. I settled on using just Columbus numbers and found it fascinating to see that Columbus has more homicides, than a much larger, geographically and population wise, Cuyahoga County. The FBI has 3 homicides listed for Franklin County in 2010. The problem here is that Columbus extends beyond Franklin County, so some murders occur in Columbus, but not in the county itself.
June 20, 201212 yr jbcmh, You're 2011 homicide numbers for Cleveland are off. Maybe 59 is what they reported to the Feds, but it is a bogus number (and I've seen some similar instances where other cities way under-report their murder numbers to the Feds, not just Cleveland). According the the Plain Dealer, Cleveland had 88 murders in 2011. Here's the article http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/12/cleveland_homicides_up_in_2011.html I take it the Plain Dealer got the numbers directly from the Cleveland Police Department since there are quotes from the chief. At 88 murders, the rate is roughly 22.2 per 100,000, which has been about average for the last 20 years, but significantly lower than other years since 2005. Off the top of my head, I believe the rate has been as low as 15 (in the late 90s) and as high as the mid 30s in the early 90s. It has reached the low 30s as recently as 2009 when there were 122 murders (though the feds show the number as 86.) Overall, the Fedstats numbers for Cleveland seem to be in line with what has been reported by local sources up until 2006. Since then, they have been vastly under-reported in every year but 2010. For example, in 2008 Fedstats has Cleveland for 55 for the year, the actual number was 102 (the 55 number was what Cleveland was at at the mid-year report and Fedstats kept the same number for the end-of-year number). Cleveland's actual 50 year low is 75, which was almost matched in 2010 (though the population is half what it was the last time so few homicides had occurred). Cleveland's more accurate numbers since 2005 are: 2005- 114 (Festats lists 109) 2006- 119 (Fedstats lists 77) 2007- 134 (Fedstats lists 90) 2008- 102 (Fedstats lists 55) 2009- 122* (Fedstats list 86) (11 were the Sowell victims who weren't all killed in 2009.) 2010- 77 (Fedstats lists 81) 2011- 88 (Fedstats doesn't have a number, but the 59 you used is off). Overall, yes, the stats have been better for Cleveland the last two years when compared to the five before that, but it still has had an alarmingly high overall homicide rate. Even the 77 in 2010 represents a rate of 19.4, which is good compared to what it had been recently, but still way too high. If anything, Cleveland is trending away from being one of the 10 most dangerous cities (like it had been from 2005-2009) to one of the 30 most dangerous (like it was for much of the 90s to mid-2000s). One more thing, you didn't mention Canton, but it's been an intriguing city to follow recently. It has traditionally been on the more dangerous side (making the top 50 most dangerous several times by morgan quinto when it qualified for the rankings), but has now seen a drastic see-saw in its murders. In 2009, there were 14 (which tied as a the most ever in the city ... though it was a probably a slight abberation since there were two triple-murders in the city that year). But in 2010 the number went down to 2 (which was a 45-year low). Then in 2011, the number jumped to 17 (which was easily the city's all-time high). But this year, there are only 3 so far (IIRC) and two of those happened in January. So, if it holds up, 2012 will be another on the safer end for the city (which has averaged about 9 per year). I don't know what it means, but interesting nonetheless. Well, regardless of what local news reports, the FBI numbers are what are ultimately used when reporting crime trends and determining federal funds, so that's what I chose to use. I noticed the differences myself, but as someone else mentioned, perhaps all the homicides were not counted as actual murders. For Columbus, the Dispatch lists 93 homicides in Columbus for 2011, while the FBI lists 87. Perhaps that is where the difference comes in. As far as Canton goes, here are the numbers. 2011 isn't available yet. Total Murder 1990: 10 1995: 12 2000: 7 2005: 4 2010: 2 Rape 1990: 76 1995: 86 2000: 66 2005: 57 2010: 54 Aggravated Assault 1990: 317 1995: 890 2000: 798 2005: 226 2010: 272 Robbery 1990: 376 1995: 471 2000: 283 2005: 381 2010: 324 Burglary 1990: 1,730 1995: 1,546 2000: 1,327 2005: 1,566 2010: 1,523 Larceny Theft 1990: 4,451 1995: 3,988 2000: 3,464 2005: 3,939 2010: 2,337 Motor Vehicle Theft 1990: 623 1995: 874 2000: 477 2005: 546 2010: 269 Total Violent 1990: 779 1995: 1,459 2000: 1,154 2005: 668 2010: 652 Total Property 1990: 6,804 1995: 6,408 2000: 5,268 2005: 6,051 2010: 4,129
June 20, 201212 yr Ive always thought this was an interesting way to compare Cleveland to Columbus Cuyahoga County - 2010 Land - 457.19 sq mi Population - 1,280,122 Homicides - 98 Columbus - 2010 Land - 210.3 sq mi Population - 787,033 Homicides - 105 All murders are homicides, but not all homicides are murders. That might explain the difference in figures. That is true, which is why there usually is some disparity between what departments report to the local media and what they ultimately report to the Feds (see jbcmh reference to Columbus in 2011 with the Dispatch reporting 93, but the Feds listing 87 ... that is a normal disparity), but in Cleveland's case, the numbers have been way to different, you're talking about a difference of 40-50. That's just too much of a disparity to be legit. Overall, don't mean to sway this thread off topic, but just pointing out that the city of Cleveland has tended to be a city that vastly under-reports its murder numbers to the Feds. Not sure what the motive is, maybe to make the city seem safer to outsiders?
June 20, 201212 yr Underreporting crime is certainly not unheard of, but I am not sure you understand the point. You can kill someone with your car and it be ruled a homicide even thought it doesn't rise to the level of murder. I can kill someone in self-defense and it would be a homicide, but not a murder. Unsolved homicides might not be ruled murders. It might boil down to how the coroner characterizes the homicide in his/her report.
June 20, 201212 yr Underreporting crime is certainly not unheard of, but I am not sure you understand the point. You can kill someone with your car and it be ruled a homicide even thought it doesn't rise to the level of murder. I can kill someone in self-defense and it would be a homicide, but not a murder. Unsolved homicides might not be ruled murders. It might boil down to how the coroner characterizes the homicide in his/her report. I don't think they are using the same definitions you might be, Hts. The FBI UCR defines murders to be the willful, non-negligent killing of a human being by another. The figures they are using don't include things like car accidents in their stats. http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/frequently-asked-questions/ucr_faqs_incspec
June 20, 201212 yr The riots in Cincinnati in 2001 had very strange effects on crime rates, including basically a doubling of murders which continues to this day. It's interesting to me that most every other category of crime has since fallen to pre-riot levels, except for murders. There's got to be a connection somewhere between the police "backing off" a bit after the riots, since returning to stricter enforcement, and criminals still thinking they can get away with murder, but I just can't quite put my finger on it. I've been told by friends in law enforcement that Cincinnati had virtually no gang activity prior to the riots. Then during/after the riots national gangs and other local gangs started popping up to take advantage of the slow down and of the chaos in the black community that happened after the riots. Cincinnati's drug crime was also fairly low but spiked after the riots. Since this has been discussed in other Cincinnati/OTR threads, I'll share that for the last 10 years between 75-90% of the homicides each year are of african americans with nearly every single arrest/conviction in these cases being of african americans as well.
June 21, 201212 yr Underreporting crime is certainly not unheard of, but I am not sure you understand the point. You can kill someone with your car and it be ruled a homicide even thought it doesn't rise to the level of murder. I can kill someone in self-defense and it would be a homicide, but not a murder. Unsolved homicides might not be ruled murders. It might boil down to how the coroner characterizes the homicide in his/her report. No, I understand it completely. Your second and third sentences are valid, and often times those cases are reported to local media as "murders", but not the Feds as such. That's why there usually is a slight differences between local numbers and the Fed numbers. Though, it's very, very unlikely that the city of Cleveland is having 40-50 of those types of cases per year. Now, your last sentence makes a lot of sense, though. I'm willing to bet that a bulk of the under-reported numbers are unsolved cases where the police haven't been able to get enough leads to target a suspect. In those cases, they may figure "no suspect, no murder" in the Fed report since they don't know whether or not the killing was justified. Doesn't make it right, but that is the only way some of the numbers are so different recently ... though 2008 seems to be simply the city either resubmitted the mid-year numbers, or the Feds mistakingly used the mid-year numbers in the final report. I did a search to try to find it to no avail, but I remember reading the mid-year report that year, and it had Cleveland at 55. Lastly, it seems like the huge disparity also is a recent thing for Cleveland (2006 to current), the rest of the Fed numbers are almost identical to the numbers the city released to the local media. So, something definitely changed in how the city is reporting its numbers to the Feds. For example, I remember specifically reading an article in the PD in 1991 about the city having 175 murders. ... It was a big deal because it was a 10-plus year high. The Fed numbers also show 175 for that year. Same thing in 1997. Again, I remember reading in the PD that there were 77 murders (I remember that because it was the first time in my lifetime that Cleveland dipped below 100 in a year). Again, that lines up with the Fed numbers. Interesting that Mike McGrath became Police Chief in 2005 and Mayor Frank Jackson was also elected in 2005. Since then, there have been the big disparities. Coincidence?
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