We already basically have this with car-sharing services. The profitability of them seems to be pretty iffy and they haven't changed much about city life. Sure a self-driving car doesn't have to wait for an attending pair of drivers to drop the car off but the question would be is that the game changer. There is also Turo where individuals rent out their cars through an app.

All of those services sound like a headache, if renting a car was as easy, or easier, than calling an Uber, I'd call that game changer. 

This is funny. And sad.

 

 

Musk himself just said again today that the car will drive itself by the end of the year. That magical 6-18 months out window.

 

https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-teslas-will-be-self-driving-teslas-by-th-1850610372

 

Actual AV companies (not Tesla) continue expanding. Cruise in recent weeks announced expansions into Nashville, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

Quote

Tesla Recalls Nearly All Vehicles Sold in U.S. to Fix System That Monitors Drivers Using Autopilot

Tesla is recalling nearly all of the vehicles it sold in the U.S., more than 2 million across its model lineup, to fix a defective system that’s supposed to ensure drivers are paying attention when they use Autopilot. [...]

Tesla says on its website that Autopilot and a more sophisticated Full Self Driving system cannot drive autonomously and are meant to help drivers who have to be ready to intervene at all times. [...]

In May, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose department includes NHTSA, said Tesla shouldn’t be calling the system Autopilot because it can’t drive itself.

 

Driverless car technology has been "12-18 months away" for the last decade.

 

When is the last time that an automaker has issued a single NHTSA recall for almost all cars they've ever sold?

 

 

31 minutes ago, taestell said:

 

Driverless car technology has been "12-18 months away" for the last decade.

 

In private, controlled environments, they will happen and in places like mining sites, it’s already here. Out on the public roads, in everyday use, they won’t be a thing this century. If ever. 

In farming it's been around for quite a while at 4mph with almost no variables. Roads aren't like that.

9 hours ago, taestell said:

When is the last time that an automaker has issued a single NHTSA recall for almost all cars they've ever sold?

To be fair, we're calling it a recall because that's the established language for cars, in reality it's more like a software update. 

 

8 hours ago, roman totale XVII said:

In private, controlled environments, they will happen and in places like mining sites, it’s already here. Out on the public roads, in everyday use, they won’t be a thing this century. If ever. 

A century is a long time, I'd take that bet in a heartbeat. Self driving cars will be safer than human drivers eventually, and once that happens it's just a regulatory and liability hurdle. The only way this doesn't happen is if the governments of all major countries decide it won't happen.

 

Driving isn't easy, but it isn't that hard either, and machines will have many advantages over humans. Chief amongst these is that they don't get distracted. They also can't drive angry, tired or drunk. They can also have a wider range of sensory inputs beyond just the visual light spectrum and sound. They can directly transmit their speed and position to other cars, as well as identified hazards on the road. Plus a machine can react faster than a human, giving them even more safety. 

 

Over the long term I'm more worried about an iRobot scenario where human driving is made illegal than I am for self driving cars never being fully realized. 

Pre-2021 models do not have an in-cabin camera. You can't just OTA that.

3 hours ago, Ethan said:

A century is a long time, I'd take that bet in a heartbeat. Self driving cars will be safer than human drivers eventually, and once that happens it's just a regulatory and liability hurdle. The only way this doesn't happen is if the governments of all major countries decide it won't happen.

Your last sentence is the crux of my view (I’m actually less sanguine on the tech too, but am prepared to accept it could be fully solved over a long-enough timeline). This whole thing is only going to work if most everyone on the road is in a self-driving car. The only way most everyone is going to have one is if it’s mandated. The US was able to pretty much regulate out incandescent light bulbs, but forcing people out of an ICE, into an electric car and then further into self-driving one at that, simply isn’t going to happen. In somewhere with high levels of social control like Singapore, or China it may well become reality, but not here. 

We already see how rarely someone is prosecuted criminally for killing a pedestrian with their car, what happens when a self-driving car kills a pedestrian?  Who is liable?

 

I'm guessing no one.  In other words, we will all need to armor ourselves against self-driving cars by being in cars ourselves.  Car culture for the win.  Oh joy.

2 hours ago, roman totale XVII said:

This whole thing is only going to work if most everyone on the road is in a self-driving car.

To add onto this, what happens to the maintenance requirements for full-autonomous vehicles? Does the entire industry need to be turned into a subscription model to make sure all of the electronic cameras and sensors get fixed when the wiring goes bad? If the future is a fleet that is only fully AVs, what happens to the cars with the fourth owner who isn't all that interested in a perfect maintenance record?

https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/14/24001357/cruise-layoff-quarter-employee-gm-driverless-spending

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/wrong-way-takes-the-shine-off-the-self-driving-car

 

Worth a read, imo.

On 12/14/2023 at 1:53 PM, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/14/24001357/cruise-layoff-quarter-employee-gm-driverless-spending

 

This kind of liability is why so many companies have made self-driving a separate entity.

 Americans remain unconvinced that self-driving cars will happen any time soon:

 

https://jalopnik.com/americans-are-starting-to-realize-self-driving-cars-are-1851231139

San Francisco mob attacks, destroys driverless car:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2024/02/13/driverless-waymo-vehicle-destroyed-san-francisco-orig-contd-dp.cnn?iid=homepage_video_zone-outbrain&dicbo=v4-Aemh2Fh-1131160479

6 hours ago, Lazarus said:

San Francisco mob attacks, destroys driverless car:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2024/02/13/driverless-waymo-vehicle-destroyed-san-francisco-orig-contd-dp.cnn?iid=homepage_video_zone-outbrain&dicbo=v4-Aemh2Fh-1131160479

A gang of Luddites?!

 

Any excuse to post a clip from the first gig I ever went to. 

 

You mean the Apple Car didn't happen?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/apple-cancels-work-on-electric-car-shifts-team-to-generative-ai

These aren't happening in our lifetimes. I just don't see it.

I drove a car with the lane assist recently, and it was really unnerving.

 

The car would jerk back and forth to stay in the lane more than necessary, and unnaturally. I had to turn it off because occasionally it would fail as it was attempting to make a turn, and I had to intervene. Honestly, even the lane assist doesn't feel like it should be allowed on regular vehicles. 

11 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

I drove a car with the lane assist recently, and it was really unnerving.

 

The car would jerk back and forth to stay in the lane more than necessary, and unnaturally. I had to turn it off because occasionally it would fail as it was attempting to make a turn, and I had to intervene. Honestly, even the lane assist doesn't feel like it should be allowed on regular vehicles. 

 

I rented a car last year and drove down through half of Florida before I realized what the heck was happening lol. Yeah this feature is terrible and the concept of driving...perfectly....straight! was maybe devised by people who've never driven on an actual highway before. 

^ ^^ I have it on my car and turned it off before I even left the dealer lot. I think it is a generational thing mainly though. I went to a talk a few years ago by a guy who had an early Tesla. His wife wouldn’t ride in it unless he turned off all the assistance/ self-driving features, yet his 8 year old daughter couldn’t understand why he would even try and drive it himself unless he had to. I know there’s a bunch of reasons why that’s not a perfect analogy, but I think it does illustrate the broader point. 

All of these features vary significantly by manufacturer and even by model. Some of them really suck whereas others are quite good. So if someone says the car "has" one of them (as Consumer Reports does) without telling you the quality of the feature they're not really telling you anything. It doesn't "have" it if people turn it off for not functioning as advertised. 

The lane assist on my car works okay to keep the car centered between the lines, but it's mostly just annoying. It makes it feel like the car is tramlining in the ruts on the road, or the alignment is messed up. Worse, probably in an attempt not to oversell capability, the car freaks out if I don't tug on the wheel every ten seconds or so. Can't just hold the wheel loosely and correct as needed, I almost have to actively countersteer.

On 2/29/2024 at 9:17 PM, mrCharlie said:

The lane assist on my car works okay to keep the car centered between the lines, but it's mostly just annoying. It makes it feel like the car is tramlining in the ruts on the road, or the alignment is messed up. Worse, probably in an attempt not to oversell capability, the car freaks out if I don't tug on the wheel every ten seconds or so. Can't just hold the wheel loosely and correct as needed, I almost have to actively countersteer.

 

Yeah, I drove a couple rental cars in the past year that were like that.  In fact, I had to keep two hands on the wheel instead of my usual one while highway cruising, so it was less than helpful.

 

Also, self adjusting cruise control is a joke- it reads other things in or near the road as problems and slows way down for no reason.

 

I'd almost sooner trust a fully self driving car before the assist features- the worst thing is to have two separate minds fighting to control the vehicle.

Trust and believe or get out. 

 

Musk Says You 'Should Not Be An Investor In The Company' If You Don't Believe Tesla Will 'Solve Autonomy'

 

https://jalopnik.com/musk-says-you-should-not-be-an-investor-in-the-company-1851432004

41 minutes ago, GCrites said:

Trust and believe or get out. 

 

Musk Says You 'Should Not Be An Investor In The Company' If You Don't Believe Tesla Will 'Solve Autonomy'

 

https://jalopnik.com/musk-says-you-should-not-be-an-investor-in-the-company-1851432004

Get out, or short?

 

There are "autonomous" features that will continue to get better, particularly for the relatively-predictable highway driving.  The new sensors that control following distance on cruise control work great -- but still shouldn't be relied upon to brake in an emergency.

 

I don't see fully autonomous vehicles being terribly good in urban/suburban environments, which are just too chaotic and unpredictable.   The kid/ball/dog/bunny running into the road?  As you swerve around a pothole or the car in front of you brakes suddenly to make an unexpected turn?    Or traveling through a construction site.  Bicycles.  Motorcycles. Scooters.  Delivery vans.  School buses.  Other cars not signaling before crossing in front of you.  Cars running crossing red lights. There is a lot to account for. 

 

The roadway lobby will likely push for more "roads" and fewer "streets" so that there are fewer distractions for autonomous vehicles.  But maybe instead of investing in more autonomous cars we should invest in better neighborhoods, more separated bike paths, more walkable places where people want to be without their cars.  Let the cars drive between cities and into the countryside, but within the city fewer cars on the road should be the goal, no matter how good the autonomous features are. 

No comment.

 

 

@Foraker@GCrites Musk can't even design a decent truck. Some of the problems with that vehicle are absolutely ridiculous. Look at all the promises he made about that vehicle that he didn't keep.  Hertz is trying to sell their Teslas at deep discounts to people who've rented them because the depreciation is killing them.  Then there is the fact that the rest of the Tesla lineup is a 10-year old design.  And this is always as funny as it is true. The original commercial is on YouTube

Edited January 6Jan 6 by gildone

24 minutes ago, gildone said:

No comment.

 

I can't believe these Waymo cars are still legally allowed on the road. It seems like they make up over half of the incidents I see. 

Here's another one, though it's from October:
Men Stall Waymo Driverless Car to Catcall Female Passenger Inside
https://www.pcmag.com/news/men-stall-waymo-driverless-car-to-catcall-female-passenger-inside

1 hour ago, gildone said:

No comment.

 

 

@Foraker@GCrites Musk can't even design a decent truck. Some of the problems with that vehicle are absolutely ridiculous. Look at all the promises he made about that vehicle that he didn't keep.  Hertz is trying to sell their Teslas at deep discounts to people who've rented them because the depreciation is killing them.  Then there is the fact that the rest of the Tesla lineup is a 10-year old design.  And this is always as funny as it is true. The original commercial is on YouTube

 

Longbed of course!

autonomous delivery trucks in china —

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE65NF1J1Ob/?igsh=MTJjZnh4cG4zOXFlcg==