It's hard to judge the safety of driverless cars until there are a significant number of driverless cars sharing the road with regular cars. Will we be safer when the roads are 80% driverless cars? Sure. But in the mean time there will be a big learning curve.

 

Right now, when you see a driverless car, is mostly a single driverless car sharing a road with nothing but human-driven cars. That type of situation is pretty easy for everyone to deal with. But in the future, imagine that there is a "pack" of driverless cars going down the highway. They will all be traveling at the same speed, obeying the speed limit, and maintaining proper spacing between each vehicle. Of course, human drivers don't drive like that. So the human drivers will be getting frustrated, weaving in and out of lanes, trying to get around the driverless cars so they can speed. You know that it's true -- we all see idiot drivers on the highway all the time. And unlike even the best human drivers, the driverless cars will be leaving plenty of space between vehicles for the human drivers to cut in.

 

I don't see how roads will function in a world where we're 50% driverless, 50% traditional cars unless we either have dedicated "driverless car lanes" or they all connect to a centralized system to coordinate their movements.

^Yes a lot of people are anticipating that regular drivers will "bully" the driverless cars by cutting them off.  If we get to a 50/50 split many people will keep driving themselves so that they can get to their destination faster by driving 7mph over the posted speed limit like they do now. 

 

 

You can bully them to a complete stop then take off like a bat out of hell and a haze of burnout smoke.

In addition, worldwide numbers are practically useless since this is waht's going on in 3rd world countries. 

 

Let's cut back on this a little before we subject American roads to the robots only.

You can bully them to a complete stop then take off like a bat out of hell and a haze of burnout smoke.

 

Right. If you pull in front of a driverless car and then slam on your breaks, the driverless car is going to stop. Then you can just pull away because the computer isn't going to hold a grudge against you.

 

Unless...driverless cars take pictures of the license places of cars that cut them off and upload them to a central database...

I predict that at some point the burden of scrutiny will shift from the driverless cars to the human operated.  Probably when it's 2-1 driverless or thereabouts.  It will be the human errors that will stand out and leave people complaining about the dangers of human drivers.

You can bully them to a complete stop then take off like a bat out of hell and a haze of burnout smoke.

 

Right. If you pull in front of a driverless car and then slam on your breaks, the driverless car is going to stop. Then you can just pull away because the computer isn't going to hold a grudge against you.

 

Unless...driverless cars take pictures of the license places of cars that cut them off and upload them to a central database...

 

It doesn't know if you had a mechanical problem or if you were avoiding a dog or human being in the road that moved away afterward. Especially with today's six foot tall monster SUVs and trucks.

Fact is, unless somebody works with the public 40+ hours a week like bartenders, wait staff, retail workers and many others do they can't envision the insane things that the public does. The nerds that put these techie type things together work with the public 0 hours a year.

Fact is, unless somebody works with the public 40+ hours a week like bartenders, wait staff, retail workers and many others do they can't envision the insane things that the public does. The nerds that put these techie type things together work with the public 0 hours a year.

 

Programmers who are designing the software are suppose to be attuned to the user experience. The trend with software development companies (or at least the successful ones, on the up-and-up) is having their programmers adhere to"Agile Methodology" which, in part, means they study and consider the user's actual experience as they're creating a backlog of features, and then go on to develop said software based on all of the feedback from users during stages of development. Essentially, disregarding all that and developing the software however you want based on pre-concieved notions of what people will need, without regard to testing and gaining / analyzing feedback, is called the "waterfall" approach. From my understanding, it's almost never used anymore, except in government agencies (the epic failure that was healthcare.gov, for example.)

Throw those guys into marketing focus groups 40 hours a week for a while or at least put them behind the one-way mirror. Or better, put them in the car so it can dodge 2001 Buick Centurys andnutty 21-year-old Florida-Georiga Line fans in their smoky diesel flat black rollerskate-tired lifted trucks all day for 5 years rather than a bunch of 40-year old well-behaved Asians driving Accords in San Francisco.

Unless...driverless cars take pictures of the license places of cars that cut them off and upload them to a central database...

 

Yeah what about freedom and all that rah rah rah when The Government knows everywhere you go?  When you're being filmed by a traffic jam full of Google streetview cars?  People tolerate that their phones know everywhere they go (or obviously some don't know it does since their cell phones ping in contradiction to their flimsy alibis) but will they tolerate the complete loss of privacy?  There is an element of anonymity out on the road that is sort of like comments at the end of a political story, and that's why a certain segment of the population really loves driving, and those people will say Uncle Sam is taking control of their car over their dead bodies.   

 

Unless...driverless cars take pictures of the license places of cars that cut them off and upload them to a central database...

 

Yeah what about freedom and all that rah rah rah when The Government knows everywhere you go?  When you're being filmed by a traffic jam full of Google streetview cars?  People tolerate that their phones know everywhere they go (or obviously some don't know it does since their cell phones ping in contradiction to their flimsy alibis) but will they tolerate the complete loss of privacy?  There is an element of anonymity out on the road that is sort of like comments at the end of a political story, and that's why a certain segment of the population really loves driving, and those people will say Uncle Sam is taking control of their car over their dead bodies.   

 

It's very bizarre to me how people are so outraged over "the government" gathering their data when they're perfectly OK with Kroger and Target tracking every item they buy, and Google and Apple knowing everywhere they go. I wonder if Waymo taxis (the new brand name for Google cars) will have an incognito mode.

Not only are these companies collecting tons of data, they're also getting hacked all the time.  When Target got nailed a few years ago I didn't care because I've never been to one, but obviously billions of people have.  It's easy to imagine that hacked driverless taxi info could be used for all sorts of unethical activity like anticipating business deals and making what amount to insider trades. 

 

I'm really worried that the driverless taxis will need multiple cameras in the vehicles in order to provide evidence if someone vomits, damages the car in some other way, harasses another rider, etc.  I suppose that we're used to that when we park a car in a garage and use an elevator, but this would be an extreme level of monitoring. 

Hold on just a second. I know I'm getting way off topic here, but lets just be clear: you have never been to a Target store? Is that correct?! I know someone who has never been to Target? WEEEEIRRRRD!!!! That's crazy. How the hell did you manage to never shop at Target?

Unless...driverless cars take pictures of the license places of cars that cut them off and upload them to a central database...

 

Yeah what about freedom and all that rah rah rah when The Government knows everywhere you go?  When you're being filmed by a traffic jam full of Google streetview cars?  People tolerate that their phones know everywhere they go (or obviously some don't know it does since their cell phones ping in contradiction to their flimsy alibis) but will they tolerate the complete loss of privacy?  There is an element of anonymity out on the road that is sort of like comments at the end of a political story, and that's why a certain segment of the population really loves driving, and those people will say Uncle Sam is taking control of their car over their dead bodies.   

 

It's very bizarre to me how people are so outraged over "the government" gathering their data when they're perfectly OK with Kroger and Target tracking every item they buy, and Google and Apple knowing everywhere they go. I wonder if Waymo taxis (the new brand name for Google cars) will have an incognito mode.

 

 

I bet Waymo was spun off from Google to isolate the massive liability risk to one separate company.

Hold on just a second. I know I'm getting way off topic here, but lets just be clear: you have never been to a Target store? Is that correct?! I know someone who has never been to Target? WEEEEIRRRRD!!!! That's crazy. How the hell did you manage to never shop at Target?

 

 

Target didn't really do much in Ohio until the early/mid-2000s. There's not really that many around as compared to your Master Kroger who must be visited.

Self-driving Uber runs red light in San Francisco:

 

Uber is saying that this and another incident from this week were due to human error.  Sure, we believe you.  Perhaps Kellyanne Conway is moonlighting as Uber's spokesman.   

Hold on just a second. I know I'm getting way off topic here, but lets just be clear: you have never been to a Target store? Is that correct?! I know someone who has never been to Target? WEEEEIRRRRD!!!! That's crazy. How the hell did you manage to never shop at Target?

 

 

No I haven't been there.  I'm not sure what they even sell beyond blenders and bath towels or whatever?  I don't buy stuff.  I don't "go shopping". 

 

Self-driving Uber runs red light in San Francisco:

 

To make matters worse, Uber rolled out self driving cars without getting permission from the California DMV! Imagine if some taxi company just said, "We're going to put 1,000 unlicensed drivers on the roads tomorrow. In your face, DMV!"

^They're doing it just for the publicity.  They're very Trump-esque in presenting things that don't exist as settled matters. 

I don't buy stuff.  I don't "go shopping". 

 

All Jake can say is that his life is pretty plain; he like watching the puddles gather rain

Ran across this article about constructing parking structure​s to be convertible to other uses in the (near) future. What a great idea that I haven't really heard of. Seems smart. I'm unaware of anything like this in Cleveland. Maybe Ohio should get on board. Apparently  Downtown Denver already requires the ground floor of stand alone parking garages to be convertible to active uses today.

 

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/10/15/denver-developers-future-parking-self-driving-cars/

 

The new dunnhumby building in Cincinnati was actually designed like this - most of the floors of the parking garage can be converted into more office space when 84.51 needs to expand.

Driverless buses being tested somewhere near Reno, NV:

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2017/05/proterra-eyes-the-future-of-autonomous-buses/524937/

 

The driverless city bus has the potential to really change everything because with the cost of the driver deleted from the equation, transit agencies will be able to operate widespread and very frequent service with their current levels of public support.  The better the level of service, the more people who will ride and pay a $1 bus fare instead of $15 to ride in a driverless taxi. 

 

The paradox though is that a transit agency can operate a driverless streetcar or light rail train for less than a driverless bus on the same arterial road.  So the argument for in-street rail is stronger than ever, especially since transit lanes could be digitally protected from driverless cars. 

 

In short, we don't pay ourselves to drive our own cars.  We /do/ pay someone else to drive city buses and taxis.  So the finances change dramatically for a driverless bus or a driverless taxi, but NOT for our personal vehicles.  A swarm of driverless taxis, quite obviously, cannot compete price-wise with a comprehensive network of driverless buses.  Personal vehicles with driverless ability won't be significantly cheaper in the future.   

There are so many servos, motors and actuators involved with driverless cars that Moore's Law can do little to make things cheaper over time.

There are so many servos, motors and actuators involved with driverless cars that Moore's Law can do little to make things cheaper over time.

 

Professional driverless car shills are now pushing "single-width cars".  So single-passenger cars that will lane split like motorcycles and, in theory, at least double the capacity of existing roads.  Except they won't -- since they can only double the capacity in hum-drum areas and not the complicated areas that are the cause of all of the traffic congestion we have today.  Also, narrow one-seat cars would obviously share the roads with trucks, buses, etc., so their advantage would be limited. 

 

Also a "single-width" car will be almost or just as expensive to build and maintain as an ordinary "double-width" vehicle (yes, that is the pejorative they have coined for traditional 4-seat cars).  Less weight means more fuel economy, but there could be serious safety and ride-quality issues.  What is a fact is that they would double the capacity of most parking lots and garages, and that's where its real advantage would lie. 

 

As for a true revolution in ridesharing, electric bikes could get so cheap in the next 10-15 years that electric bikes similar to mopeds could offer a very cheap alternative to owning cars and way less sweat, obviously, than citibkes.  Yes, they already have a few electric-assist bikeshares around the globe, but no doubt in 10+ years they'll be way, way better. 

 

 

 

Maybe they will talk Uncle Sam into building special roads just for the credit card cars.

Maybe they will talk Uncle Sam into building special roads just for the credit card cars.

 

Of course.  Except they'll be built with public funds but owned by private companies.  That's the great swindle they will attempt to pull. 

I've been spending a lot of time in airports the past few months, and it has gotten me wondering: has anyone at Google or Tesla proposed electrifying and autonomizing airport ground fleets? The whole ground fleet is almost entirely small, slow vehicles that make short, predictable trips and spend a lot of time sitting around, which would seemingly make them ideal for switching to battery power and driverless car technology. I assume getting FAA approval would be difficult but I feel like it would be a better proof-of-concept in a closed, professional, government-controlled environment than trying to push it to the consumer first.

Hmm, that seems like one of those things where there would be a huge upfront investment (not only the new equipment but multiple charging stations at each gate) and would take many years to pay off. But yeah, that might be a good thing of Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) funding if the airports would take the time to apply for it. It certainly sounds more deserving than some of the projects that OKI has allocated CMAQ funding towards in recent years.

I suppose I can put this here?

 

Self-Driving Shuttle Bus Shows up on Campus & OSU is Looking to Buy One

 

Sharped-eyed observers on Ohio State University’s main campus might have spotted an unusual-looking vehicle cruising around on Tuesday.

 

Olli is the brand name of a 12-passenger van produced by an Arizona-based company called Local Motors. Designed to be fully autonomous, the rectangular-shaped shuttle was on campus for a “promotional and video shoot,” according to Benjamin Johnson, Director of Media and Public Relations.

 

More below:

http://www.columbusunderground.com/self-driving-shuttle-bus-olli-at-osu-bw1

 

I've been spending a lot of time in airports the past few months, and it has gotten me wondering: has anyone at Google or Tesla proposed electrifying and autonomizing airport ground fleets? The whole ground fleet is almost entirely small, slow vehicles that make short, predictable trips and spend a lot of time sitting around, which would seemingly make them ideal for switching to battery power and driverless car technology. I assume getting FAA approval would be difficult but I feel like it would be a better proof-of-concept in a closed, professional, government-controlled environment than trying to push it to the consumer first.

 

It depends. Most of those fleets are either owned by an airline or a ground handling company. To maximize their utility means they are not always doing the same actions at the same gate all day long. Many are shared and move around as the operation does working different types of aircraft. Some also can have quite long trips depending on the size of the airport. It's certainly possible though.

 

I think the bigger issue would be cost. Under the wing is generally where new investments are made last by an airline. There's lots of ground equipment out there that are decades old and held together by tape and bubble gum. If the price tag is too high for airlines and it's going to need to be quite low to beat the current system, no one will invest in it.

Interesting article covers a lot of city-building issues including self-driving cars which they awesomely call "zombies" and which they are considering banning....

 

Paris deputy mayor questions London's approach to skyscrapers and public space

Marcus Fairs | 12 September 2017  13 comments

 

A project like London's now-abandoned Garden Bridge would "never" happen in Paris, according to its deputy mayor, who has criticised the UK capital's free-market approach to development.

 

"We don't accept to give the management of public space to the private sector," said Jean-Louis Missika, who is responsible for architecture, urbanism and economic development in the French capital.

 

The Thomas Heatherwick-designed Garden Bridge, which was scrapped last month, would have been controversially owned and operated by a private trust.

 

MORE:

https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/12/paris-deputy-mayor-questions-london-approach-skyscrapers-public-space/

^It's amazing how the French are wise enough not to exhibit jealousy for or pursue London's stock exchange and financial sector.  They understand that that brings all sorts of snakes into the conversation. 

^It's amazing how the French are wise enough not to exhibit jealousy for or pursue London's stock exchange and financial sector.  They understand that that brings all sorts of snakes into the conversation. 

 

Not to get too far off topic, but isn't France undergoing a financial crisis?

I light critique of Nashville's light rail & subway plan:

 

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/10/23/lurking-question-nashvilles-transit-plan-what-self-driving-cars/776070001/

 

 

We're still decades and decades away from seeing the central control of all vehicles (every single vehicle of all kinds) that would be necessary to realize widespread improvements in peak-hour travel volumes on existing roads.  And once that happens, demand will be induced and we'll be right back to where we started.

 

The self-driving car issue vs. public transportation never addresses the specter of driverless city buses, which will be profitable unlike current buses. 

 

 

^In the meantime, self driving vehicles are going to make you Grandma look like a 16 year old with daddy's Corvette!

The self-driving car issue vs. public transportation never addresses the specter of driverless city buses, which will be profitable unlike current buses. 

 

Here they come: Vegas, Helsinki, Michigan, and China (bus-train hybrid) --

http://fortune.com/2017/01/14/vegas-self-driving-bus/

https://www.curbed.com/2017/6/15/15810912/driverless-self-driving-bus-finland-helsinki-transportation

https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/21/15848098/michigan-driverless-shuttle-navya-mcity

https://www.techspot.com/news/69593-china-unveils-electric-road-train-runs-painted-tracks.html

None of those are legit buses on legit, ordinary streets.  A robot vehicle shuttling people on a closed campus, or whatever, isn't impressive.

That's basically a WVU PRT with tires.

Toyota developing driverless vehicle that can be used for pizza deliveries

 

Everybody from auto manufacturers to pizza makers wants to get in on the driverless car frenzy.

 

Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM), which hosts its North American headquarters in Plano, Texas, unveiled a concept vehicle this week at the CES conference in Las Vegas.

 

Several businesses, including Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Uber Technologies Inc. and Plano-based Pizza Hut were named as partners in the project.

 

More below:

https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2018/01/09/toyota-developing-driverless-vehicle-that-can-be.html

 

We won't have to pay a tip and worry about delivery time taking over an hour while the driver is out selling drugs in-between their deliveries  ;D

 

There must be separate compartments on the vehicle with only one opening up, upon delivery, allowing the customer to grab their food. If not, there would be nothing stopping the customer from grabbing all the pizzas.

 

I'm assuming it's unmanned or this wouldn't even be worth it. If unmanned, it would allow them to increase sales by broadening their delivery boundaries to include unsafe streets/neighborhoods that drivers refuse to go to. Drivers will find any reason not to take the late night deliveries. Most of the time, I couldn't blame them. I had one driver refuse to deliver to a certain apartment complex because he said the crack smoke messes with his emphysema. I said, "Really? But the two packs of cigarettes you smoke outside in the parking lot, on the clock, doesn't?!"

 

When I worked at Donatos, one of my drivers was stabbed roughly 8 times by a gang of people who rushed out of the bushes. The delivery was a setup. They gave a fake address and phone number. They didn't even take his cash. We figured it was some gang initiation thing. He came back to the restaurant covered in blood and I tried applying pressure to his wounds with a towel to prevent blood loss but he had so many stabs I just couldn't keep up with it, until paramedics came. It was crazy. After that, he quit and all the other drivers were thinking about it too so we hired a rent-a-cop to go on uncomfortable deliveries with our drivers -- the biggest waste of money. I think we were charged about $50 an hour and he sat in the dining room most of the time because drivers either had too much pride to bring security or were afraid that he'd cite them for traffic violations during the ride-along, lol! The only female driver we had, took him everywhere. She loved it. He basically became her personal armed body guard on her shifts. I can't imagine the look on customers faces and what was going through their mind when she walked up to their door and rang the bell, with an officer right next to her. This was N. Linden so I'm sure a lot of folks panicked and flushed drugs down their toilet or aired out the house to get rid of the weed smell before opening the door.

 

The pizza business is crazy.

 

 

 

I don't think that these things really portend much of an advantage for the business.  Most pizza places pay their drivers tipped minimum wage.  So they're replacing a worker who costs them nothign who drives their personal vehicle with a fleet of $50,000 driverless vehicles. 

 

Also, people want the food brought up to their apartment or at least to their door.  The vehicle can't get inside buildings.

^BBBBBBut tech!

I don't think that these things really portend much of an advantage for the business.  Most pizza places pay their drivers tipped minimum wage.  So they're replacing a worker who costs them nothign who drives their personal vehicle with a fleet of $50,000 driverless vehicles. 

 

Also, people want the food brought up to their apartment or at least to their door.  The vehicle can't get inside buildings.

 

Donatos pays the true minimum wage for drivers.

 

The payroll cost for the driver is more than that, when you factor in things like workers comp, unemployment, medicare and SS taxes. There's a lot of indirect costs pertaining to drivers that aren't related to payroll. We paid a lot of money to a third party company each time I had MVRs ran on PROSPECTIVE drivers that we didn't even know if we could hire, yet. I used to have to inspect the drivers vehicles regularly, keep/update detailed logs of those inspections along with up-to-date insurance information on every driver. It was annoying and time consuming.

 

I could picture these vehicles ultimately saving money for high volume places. The vehicles wouldn't call off all the time. You wouldn't get scam artists calling you, wanting free food because the "truck was rude!" It would take a while to break even but I'm sure Pizza Hut can afford such a cash-sucking venture.

 

There are folks who are handicap or elderly who can't come down or go outside to grab their food from a truck. I suppose in that case a manager could be sent on said deliveries or one driver per shift could be kept around for those scenarios.

Also, since customers can't tip a truck, those restaurants could justify raising the delivery charge to $5-$6, even more. That's how much you usually pay after delivery and tip, anyway.

 

I almost forgot about how drivers cherry-pick orders. They knew who tipped and who didn't so often times they'd run off with a more recent delivery order, causing someone who ordered first to get their food last (and of course the non-tippers they discriminated against were the ones most likely to call back and complain, demanding a credit.) I'm sorry, I know it eliminates a lot of jobs but I have to say, the more I think about it, the more I think it's a great idea. Obviously if you're a driver, you're not going to feel the same way.

^ I'm not paying a delivery charge for a pizza when they've eliminated the human being. 

I don't think that these things really portend much of an advantage for the business.  Most pizza places pay their drivers tipped minimum wage.  So they're replacing a worker who costs them nothign who drives their personal vehicle with a fleet of $50,000 driverless vehicles. 

 

Also, people want the food brought up to their apartment or at least to their door.  The vehicle can't get inside buildings.

 

Donatos pays the true minimum wage for drivers.

 

The payroll cost for the driver is more than that, when you factor in things like workers comp, unemployment, medicare and SS taxes. There's a lot of indirect costs pertaining to drivers that aren't related to payroll. We paid a lot of money to a third party company each time I had MVRs ran on PROSPECTIVE drivers that we didn't even know if we could hire, yet. I used to have to inspect the drivers vehicles regularly, keep/update detailed logs of those inspections along with up-to-date insurance information on every driver. It was annoying and time consuming.

 

I could picture these vehicles ultimately saving money for high volume places. The vehicles wouldn't call off all the time. You wouldn't get scam artists calling you, wanting free food because the "truck was rude!" It would take a while to break even but I'm sure Pizza Hut can afford such a cash-sucking venture.

 

There are folks who are handicap or elderly who can't come down or go outside to grab their food from a truck. I suppose in that case a manager could be sent on said deliveries or one driver per shift could be kept around for those scenarios.

 

The pay and roll of pizza drivers differs from place to place.  For example, at many chains, the drivers do nothing but drive but at others the drivers answer phones, help stock the cooks, fold boxes, etc.  Also, at some places the drivers make minimum wage continuously but at others the computer switches them to tipped minimum wage when they're clocked out on runs. 

 

Another factor is that cooks are usually paid over minumum wage (say $9 or $10 in Ohio, where minimum wage is $8.10).  So many places make the drivers, who are paid true minimum wage, close down the restaurant at the end of the night. 

 

The advent of driverless delivery matters a lot more to the bottom lines of industries where the drivers receive a professional wage and benefits, like city buses and local and long haul trucking.  Some of those workers are unionized wheras nobody in the pizza or other food delivery world is unionized. 

 

 

 

Edit: Never mind, Jake covered it better in the time I was typing.