First, some recaps of previous census and Business Journals estimates.

 

July 1st 2011 Census Estimate and Change from the April 1st, 2010 Census

Akron: 701,456 -1,744

Cincinnati: 2,138,038 +7,887

Cleveland: 2,068,038 -8,957

Columbus: 1,858,464 +21,928

Dayton: 845,388 +3,886

Toledo: 650,266 -1,163

Youngstown: 562,739 -3,034

 

Business Journals April 1st 2012 Estimates and the Difference from the 2011 Census Estimate

Akron: 703,376 +1,920

Cincinnati: 2,147,876 +9,838

Cleveland: 2,063,508 -4,775

Columbus: 1,881,610 +23,146

Dayton: 840,193 -5,195

Toledo: 647,029 -3,237

Youngstown: 558,877 -3,862

 

And the most recent Business Journals estimate for January 1st, 2013 and Change from their April 1st, 2012 Estimate

Akron: 700,614 -2,762

Cincinnati: 2,150,524 +2,648

Cleveland: 2,057,610 -5,898

Columbus: 1,889,595 +7,985

Dayton: 874,067 +6,874

Toledo: 648,120 +1,091

Youngstown: 558,250 -627

 

And their projection and date for each metro's next population milestone.

Akron: 700,000 2/6/2014

Cincinnati: 2,160,000 2/20/2014

Cleveland: 2,050,000 1/29/2014

Columbus: 1,890,000 1/8/2013

Dayton: 850,000 8/17/2015

Toledo: 640,000 9/29/2018

Youngstown: 550,000 8/20/2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally, I see some obvious issues.  For example, in their 2012 estimates, they have Akron growing and Dayton and Toledo shrinking, and then for their January 2013 estimates, it's just the opposite.  And much of the growth elsewhere, especially in Columbus and Cincinnati, has slowed drastically.  Just seems to be a lot of inconsistency.  Granted, they are not official estimates anyway.  It will be interesting to compare them to the census ones when they come out next month.

They need to rethink the Methodology of these yearly estimates.  They were off big time the past decade. I doubt that business journals have the resources to even estimate correctly. I heard they used some type of software. Not all data is available for all cities every year.

 

And Dayton is on pace to add 12k a year?