Meanwhile Model 3 parts are being handmade on the production line during something called "Production Hell" where they act like they're making Call of Duty or something. Each car will turn out different but that's OK since there are no model year designations for owners to compare their cars' different parts.

 

But savior Musk always tweets those cool robot videos!!!11!!1!

Musk and Trump have a lot in common.  Over-promise on Twitter and under-deliver in real life. 

 

If Tesla had simply stayed a hi-end electric car company, I bet they could have maintained a niche for a long time.  The forays into self-driving and this "affordable" car might sink the whole enterprise.  As I have mentioned previously, when Detroit and Japan have great small and mid-sized electric cars on the market in five years, Tesla is doomed. 

Musk and Trump have a lot in common.  Over-promise on Twitter and under-deliver in real life.

 

Or, perhaps, succeed at feats that everyone told them were impossible right up until the moment they did it.

 

If Tesla had simply stayed a hi-end electric car company, I bet they could have maintained a niche for a long time.  The forays into self-driving and this "affordable" car might sink the whole enterprise.  As I have mentioned previously, when Detroit and Japan have great small and mid-sized electric cars on the market in five years, Tesla is doomed. 

 

That's not the way we (Tesla shareholders) see it.  EVs are still an absolutely tiny portion of the market.  Tesla doesn't need to capture all the growth in the sector or even the majority of it to be a fantastically successful enterprise.  Also, I think a lot of the OEMs are going to find that simply throwing a ton of money at the issue won't necessarily catch them up with Tesla as fast as they hope or dream.  Tesla had to build the world's largest electric battery factory just to service its own demand.  It has already struck long-term supply deals for lithium and other critical raw materials; those materials are generally geologically abundant but companies mining vast quantities of them are not.

 

The legacy OEMs are greatly hampered by their business models and business cultures.  Those things are difficult to change.  We believe that to be the primary reason why, for example, Nissan and GM, despite having early entrants into the EV game, have completely squandered any first-mover advantage they might have had, and why their EVs have consistently failed to gain the kind of traction or popular cachet that they could have had.

 

In just a few years after launch, the Model S absolutely dominated its price class at the high end of the luxury sedan market.  I don't yet have any reason to believe that the Model 3 will not be similarly well-received among customers in the $35k-$55k range, including myself, even if the EV tax credit goes away.

Detroit and Japan have been slow to enter the electric car market because small cars of any propulsion method are barely profitable. They have to be produced on a global scale to be even minimally profitable.  That's why the Big 3 generally manufacture their small cars outside the United States and design them for every market (i.e. Ford's "global" cars).  I can sit at the Taco Bell in Covington, KY or tailgate before a Bengals game and watch mile-long trains of sparkling new full-size pickup trucks lumber across the Ohio River on their way from Michigan to Southern car dealerships where they will earn $4,000 per unit for the Big 3. 

 

Tesla is burning through billions to produce a minimally profitable car.  It makes no business sense.  That's why Musk is out there twirling his hype towel every day on Twitter -- he has to present the image that everything is A-Okay when in fact, as the Times piece points out, there is basically zero way the company survives this stunt. 

Elon Musk hinting-not-hinting that Tesla flying cars are just around the corner:

 

Not saying the next gen Roadster special upgrade package *will* definitely enable it to fly short hops, but maybe …

 

Certainly possible. Just a question of safety. Rocket tech applied to a car opens up revolutionary possibilities.

http://fortune.com/2017/11/20/inside-tesla-electric-semi-truck/

 

Tesla unveiled plans for an EV semi-truck.

 

They also announced a new Roadster 2.0...which will be able to go from 0 to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds.

The new Roadster is mostly about bragging rights but that 620 mile range will be incredible if they can then get that into their sedans.

 

The Tesla Semi, however, is an absolute game-changer if they can execute and produce it in bulk.  The short-haul market that an electric Class 8 (18-wheeler) will be able to disrupt is massive both in terms of revenue and in terms of CO2 emissions.  The fact that electric motors have all their torque available at 0 rpm makes getting a fully-loaded semi into motion a much less trying exercise.  Also, the fact that they're in some sense designed to be parked in specific locations (loading bays) for extended periods means that they can charge while being loaded and unloaded if warehouses and stores and other such places with loading bays install a charger right next to the loading bay.  In addition, the wear and tear on most semi fleets is extraordinary--while some semi trucks, with the right maintenance, can last for a million miles, they can also put those miles on their rigs in a hurry, and some don't last nearly so long.  Major purchasers of new semis also tend to sell their used equipment after 3-5 years (to independent truckers who can't afford the cost of a new one).

 

Tesla already has orders from JB Hunt and Wal-Mart (just for small quantities, likely as a test).

The Tesla Semi, however, is an absolute game-changer if they can execute and produce it in bulk.  T

 

We're still waiting to see if they can produce the Model 3 in bulk.

The Tesla Semi, however, is an absolute game-changer if they can execute and produce it in bulk.  T

 

We're still waiting to see if they can produce the Model 3 in bulk.

 

A fully loaded semi weighs at least as much as 25 Model 3's.  But I'm sure the Muskman will will it into existence. 

It also has way more parts for them to hand-make

The Tesla Semi, however, is an absolute game-changer if they can execute and produce it in bulk.  T

 

We're still waiting to see if they can produce the Model 3 in bulk.

 

A fully loaded semi weighs at least as much as 25 Model 3's.  But I'm sure the Muskman will will it into existence. 

 

Did you watch the unveiling?

Did you watch the unveiling?

 

No.  Because Musk is a showman. 

 

Incidentally, an existing trucking company made a similar announcement over the summer.  But nobody heard about it because they don't have a tweeter at the helm:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2017/08/29/take-that-tesla-diesel-engine-giant-cummins-unveils-heavy-duty-truck-powered-by-electricity/#6f6575d778f1

 

"Tech presentations" don't connect with me at all.

Did you watch the unveiling?

 

No.  Because Musk is a showman. 

 

Incidentally, an existing trucking company made a similar announcement over the summer.  But nobody heard about it because they don't have a tweeter at the helm:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2017/08/29/take-that-tesla-diesel-engine-giant-cummins-unveils-heavy-duty-truck-powered-by-electricity/#6f6575d778f1

 

 

A Class 7 with a 100 mile range?  Could have its uses, I suppose.  But I don't think it's going to compete with a Class 8 with a 400-mile range.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong.

 

Also, Musk is emphatically not a showman.  He stutters and he's actually a bit awkward in front of a crowd.

Did you watch the unveiling?

 

No.  Because Musk is a showman. 

 

Incidentally, an existing trucking company made a similar announcement over the summer.  But nobody heard about it because they don't have a tweeter at the helm:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2017/08/29/take-that-tesla-diesel-engine-giant-cummins-unveils-heavy-duty-truck-powered-by-electricity/#6f6575d778f1

 

 

A Class 7 with a 100 mile range?  Could have its uses, I suppose.  But I don't think it's going to compete with a Class 8 with a 400-mile range.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong.

 

Also, Musk is emphatically not a showman.  He stutters and he's actually a bit awkward in front of a crowd.

 

In some of his one-on-one interviews / TED style talks he says it's because his brain is just moving so fast and he's trying to figure out how to form his thoughts into coherent sentences.

 

Dude is a genius.  But I still have my doubts given the Model 3 struggles that Tesla can mass produce ANYTHING right now.

I read recently that each day 48,000 people travel from San Diego to LA.

 

https://tesloop.com/

 

All Tesloops are shared rides to maximize the sustainability of the vehicle. You book per seat in our Tesla Model Xs which are driven by our certified and trained pilots. There are 4 seats available to book on any Tesloop.

 

Pricing on Tesloop varies by day, time of day and by seat between $29 - $79. To see how much your Tesloop will be, press "Book Now" on the homepage and search for your desired Tesloop.

 

 

Did you watch the unveiling?

 

No.  Because Musk is a showman. 

 

Incidentally, an existing trucking company made a similar announcement over the summer.  But nobody heard about it because they don't have a tweeter at the helm:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2017/08/29/take-that-tesla-diesel-engine-giant-cummins-unveils-heavy-duty-truck-powered-by-electricity/#6f6575d778f1

 

 

A Class 7 with a 100 mile range?  Could have its uses, I suppose.  But I don't think it's going to compete with a Class 8 with a 400-mile range.  Perhaps I'll be proven wrong.

 

Also, Musk is emphatically not a showman.  He stutters and he's actually a bit awkward in front of a crowd.

 

In some of his one-on-one interviews / TED style talks he says it's because his brain is just moving so fast and he's trying to figure out how to form his thoughts into coherent sentences.

 

Dude is a genius.  But I still have my doubts given the Model 3 struggles that Tesla can mass produce ANYTHING right now.

 

There are scientific geniuses all over the place, but few of them are self-promoters AND lucked out with money.  Musk is masquerading as a nerd when he and the crew he came up with, especially Peter Thiel, are cold-blooded capitalists.  Like 19th century robber baron capitalists.  Thiel goes out and publicly argues that his goal is always to create a monopoly and to disguise it as a competitive business. 

 

What's scary about what Musk has set into motion is that he is slowly building the various components of a vertically integrated transportation system.  He will own the "track" and you will have to buy a vehicle he makes that has exclusive rights to that "track", in a reversion to the disastrous railroad ownership situation that has always uniquely plagued the United States.  It could be a physically exclusive ROW like a tunnel that only his cars are permitted to use (or non-Musk cars pay 3X the toll, or whatever) or a hyperloop-type technology where cars are carried on a train-like contraption over long distances.  Or it could be a completely separate space-based GPS-type system that only his devices are permitted to use.

 

I actually work peripherally in trucking and the amount of long-haul trucking is actually pretty small.  The bulk of pickups and deliveries are by box or "straight trucks" that stay within a 50-100 mile range of their terminal or company.  The big problem with putting charging stations at docks is that you'd have to put them on pretty much every dock out there because places often do not have a dock door open and deliveries/pickups have to take the next available dock door.  The other variable that sort-of works to the advantage of local deliveries is that trucks vary wildly in weight depending on where they are in their route.  So when they're running empty, they're consuming much less power than when they have a full load.  But the problem in a driverless future is that a robot truck would almost always be almost entirely full.  That's a huge efficiency gain over what exists right now so far as the number of trucks out there on the road but complicates the task of powering them with batteries. 

 

I read recently that each day 48,000 people travel from San Diego to LA.

 

https://tesloop.com/

 

This has business networking written all over it. 

 

48,000 people is not really that many people.  The California HSR line will connect LA and SD in the 2030s. 

 

 

I read recently that each day 48,000 people travel from San Diego to LA.

 

https://tesloop.com/

 

All Tesloops are shared rides to maximize the sustainability of the vehicle. You book per seat in our Tesla Model Xs which are driven by our certified and trained pilots. There are 4 seats available to book on any Tesloop.

 

Pricing on Tesloop varies by day, time of day and by seat between $29 - $79. To see how much your Tesloop will be, press "Book Now" on the homepage and search for your desired Tesloop.

 

 

Isn't the hyperloop going to solve this?

I read recently that each day 48,000 people travel from San Diego to LA.

 

https://tesloop.com/

 

All Tesloops are shared rides to maximize the sustainability of the vehicle. You book per seat in our Tesla Model Xs which are driven by our certified and trained pilots. There are 4 seats available to book on any Tesloop.

 

Pricing on Tesloop varies by day, time of day and by seat between $29 - $79. To see how much your Tesloop will be, press "Book Now" on the homepage and search for your desired Tesloop.

 

 

Isn't the hyperloop going to solve this?

 

If LA hadn't ripped out all of the interurban trains that were fully functional and profitable up until 1950 then we wouldn't even be having this LA>SD conversation.  The Santa Ana ROW, all 20 miles of it, is still a conspicuous 100-foot diagonal line across the LA basin.  It's probably the most conspicuous preserved ROW in a city anywhere in the United States.  Right now the Measure R light rail is planning to rebuild some of it, but just wait for the Muskman to swoosh in, cape aflutter, and make some sort of offer on it. 

 

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Santa+Ana,+CA/@33.7951732,-117.9775762,852m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x80dcdb956c823085:0xc74f843a1f1efdbc!8m2!3d33.7454725!4d-117.867653

 

I read recently that each day 48,000 people travel from San Diego to LA.

 

https://tesloop.com/

 

This has business networking written all over it. 

 

48,000 people is not really that many people.  The California HSR line will connect LA and SD in the 2030s. 

 

I know, wish that was sooner. The trains from SD to LA are a cool option, but not conducive for commuting.

 

Also Tesloop appears to be not affiliated with Tesla Motors.

Republican tax plan is bad news for Tesla and other electric vehicles:

 

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2017/11/are-electric-vehicles-about-to-hit-a-roadblock/545612/

The worst part is that it makes the stock go down unnecessarily since most people don't know that the target buyers of the Model 3 can't take full advantage of the $7500 tax incentive. But the rich could! So potentially there's one non-regressive aspect of the tax reform bill.

Time to get out the hammer and anvil to forge some more handmade parts, Tesla. While it's convenient that Tesla techs come to you rather than working on things in a real garage with permanent tools and whatnot, the owner's residence isn't a conductive place for real automobile service and repair.

 

Tesla Owner Resorts To Tweeting At Elon When His Door Handles Break For The Third Time

 

"i had to literally climb into the car from the passenger door. Tesla says they will address and fix my issue as soon as they have availability of the part and time to send out a technician with no clear answer on when that will be..."

 

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-owner-resorts-to-tweeting-at-elon-when-his-door-h-1821128355

Tried to find out how much CO2 was released in order to launch an electric car into space...this is the best I could find:

http://theconversation.com/falcon-heavy-spacex-stages-an-amazing-launch-but-what-about-the-environmental-impact-91423

 

Elon Musk doesn't give a damn about the environment.  He just wants your money. 

My problem with Musk is he portrays himself as a serious man who cares deeply about saving the planet, the human race, etc.  Yet he thinks his next genius idea is digging a subway system under L.A.  No one in L.A. thinks it's a good strategy.

 

There's really no reason to use a Tesla Roadster as the dummy payload other than "LOL I'm a billionaire."

 

Until we come up with a better way to send a rocket into space, there is going to be pollution associated with launches.

Tesla update:

 

In the fourth quarter ending on December 31st, the company lost $675.35 million dollars. During the same quarter in 2016, the company lost $121.38 million.

 

But the company was able to grow revenue from $2.85 billion in Q4 2016 to $3.288 billion this past quarter. More than expected by analysts. It also announced that it expected to begin generating "positive quarterly income on a sustained basis" in 2018.

 

Meanwhile, on the Model 3 production front, the company hopes to hit 2,500 Model 3s per week by the end of the first quarter and plans to be producing 5,000 Model 3s by the end of the second quarter. That should be good news to anyone waiting on reservations.

 

 

"hopes to" "expects to"

Until we come up with a better way to send a rocket into space, there is going to be pollution associated with launches.

 

There already is a better and much cleaner way but it needs more investment:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator

 

 

 

 

Tesla regularly misses its promises on estimates.  Weren't they supposed to be producing 10k Model 3s/week by now?

"hopes to" "expects to"

 

By comparison, Ford manufactures over 15,000 F-150s per week. 

We 'discount' what Elon Musk says substantially, says analyst

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/08/we-discount-what-elon-musk-says-substantially-says-analyst.html?play=1

Also, they're only making the higher-end Model 3's right now.  You can't get the base model -- you know, the long-promised $35,000 car.  Most of the ones they'll be selling in 2018 are all $45,000+. 

Interestingly, they're making one specific kind of the high-end Model 3 right now: the long-range battery one with 2WD.  The AWD ones will actually be among the last produced in the queue.  So it will go 2WD long range, then 2WD standard range, then AWD (both battery sizes).

They're prioritizing the high end models because those are the ones that they make a profit on. There is some speculation that they will lose money on each base level Model 3 they sell.

My friend was in fairly early for the Model 3 deposits, but upon realizing that the model he wants (AWD) would be last and thus put the EV credit in jeopardy he changed course (I believe) and is considering a Model S instead.

@elonmusk

Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec

 

1:12 AM - Jul 3, 2017

 

LOL

 

As of February 2017, Tesla planned to ramp up production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week in 4Q2017 and reach 10,000 vehicles per week in 2018. However, Tesla missed their Q4 production target by far, as only 2,425 vehicles were produced during the entire 3-month period. 5 months before, Musk claimed on Twitter that Tesla would be able to produce 20,000 Model 3 per month by December of the same year. Tesla's actual production numbers were therefore 93% lower than his prediction.

 

By early November 2017, Musk postponed the target date for manufacturing 5,000 of the vehicles per week from December 2017 to March 2018.[118] When asked when the company would reach a production level of 10,000 units per week, he declined to speculate. An analyst with Cowan and Company, a public-relations firm, commented that "Elon Musk needs to stop over-promising and under-delivering". In early January 2018, the target date for producing 5,000 units per week was extended to the end of June, in spite of significant expenditures on robots. Later the company explained that it will continue to target weekly Model 3 production rates of 2,500 by the end of the March 2018 and 5,000 by the end of June

My friend was in fairly early for the Model 3 deposits, but upon realizing that the model he wants (AWD) would be last and thus put the EV credit in jeopardy he changed course (I believe) and is considering a Model S instead.

 

A guy at the Gigafactory has to carve each center differential out of a solid hunk of metal first.

 

Also, Musk is emphatically not a showman.  He stutters and he's actually a bit awkward in front of a crowd.

 

In some of his one-on-one interviews / TED style talks he says it's because his brain is just moving so fast and he's trying to figure out how to form his thoughts into coherent sentences.

 

Dude is a genius.  But I still have my doubts given the Model 3 struggles that Tesla can mass produce ANYTHING right now.

 

Very common on the autism spectrum.  Verbal communication can be a challenge.

 

But so is generating out of the box ideas out of the blue.  He just put his car in the second most iconic picture of the space era.  Yeah, he's a showman.

 

Oh there's definitely going to be lots of Tesla collectors in 40 years. I'm not talking just about cars, but memorabilia. When there's this kind of hype about something the hype sticks around in people's brains then they get nostalgic for it later in life. Much in the same way you see people filling their garages with old gas station pieces from the '60s, muscle car advertising, car dealership signs and whatnot in addition to having the old car parked in the garage.

 

Oddly, we 3rd Gen (82-92) Camaro/Firebird guys are more obsessed with the era of when our cars were hated during say the late '90s. Putting on mullet wigs, throwing cans of Old Milwaukee in the back, tattered Whitesnake shirts with beer belly imprints, questionable modifications such as gigantic rear tires and other trailer park tomfoolery.

Saw my first Model 3 this morning...only saw it for a second so I didn't get a very good look at it. 

Lithium Miners' Pain Is Tesla's Gain As Prices Seen Plunging This Much

 

https://www.investors.com/news/sqm-albemarle-lithium-stocks-dive-tesla-rises/

 

========================================

 

Granted, commodity prices are volatile things.  But it's good to know that the trendline of lithium prices isn't just an exponential upward growth curve and that, at least so far, there are no imminent threats of shortages even as both electric cars and utility-scale battery backup installations are becoming more mainstream.  This bodes well not just for the medium-term affordability of electric cars (since the battery is a very significant portion of the cost of the entire car), but also likely for the expansion of adoption (since companies aren't going to invest in more factories like Tesla's huge battery factory in Nevada, the Gigafactory, if raw materials are likely to be unavailable or prohibitively expensive).

Lithium prices probably shot up then crashed because of Musk's mouth.

 

 

If they're that responsive to one guy, even a CEO of a major customer, then the market is still underdeveloped.  A mature market should be more stable than that.

The sheer amount of weight Tesla claimed they were going to need would certainly affect the market. It takes thousands of smartphone batteries to equal the weight of one car's battery or hundreds of power tool batteries.

High number of flawed parts reported at Tesla factory:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/tesla-manufacturing-high-volume-of-flawed-parts-employees.html

 

I seem to recall reports that Tesla was building its final machinery first instead of building test machines like every other manufacturer.  If so, their rush to market is going to end up costing them much more than it saved. 

Tesla's bond rating downgraded:

 

Late on Tuesday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Tesla’s credit rating to B3 from B2, citing "the significant shortfall in the production rate of the company’s Model 3 electric vehicle.” It also noted “liquidity pressures due to its large negative free cash flow and the pending maturities of convertible bonds.”

 

Tesla has $230 million in convertible bonds maturing in November 2018 and $920 million in March 2019.

 

Moody’s said its negative outlook “reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity shortfall.”

 

It said Tesla's weekly production target is now 2,500 Model 3 vehicles by the end of March, down sharply from its year-earlier target of 5,000 per week by the end of 2017. Tesla's weekly target for the end of June is 5,000.

Delay, delay, delay...the Tesla way!

 

My buddy sent in his configuration for his Model 3 last week and was told to expect it delivered in the next 3-6 weeks.  We'll see if that actually pans out (narrator: it won't).

Mean old bankers keeping the future from happening

 

 

"More bad news: Two days ago, Moody’s, the credit ratings service, downgraded Tesla to a rating of Caa1, which is extremely bad and will make it very expensive for Tesla to borrow money. All of which might not be a problem if creditors still believed in Tesla’s basic mission and Elon Musk. But yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg reported that that might not be the case anymore.

 

    'Wooed by Musk’s personal appeals, bond investors pretty much ignored the carmaker’s prolific cash burn and repeated failures to meet production targets and lent it $1.8 billion at record-low interest rates.'"

 

https://jalopnik.com/things-are-not-looking-good-for-tesla-right-now-1824174945

 

 

Electric Mini -- looks cool, but how will it drive?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/03/27/electric-mini-way-next-year/464504002/