Even though Gottaplan and I frequently disagree on politics, he has good sources in the real estate development industry and I respect his information.

 

Because of the proposed location of the office component of this development, I can see that portion completed first while the interior work is being done on hotel and the steel is still being raised for the 54-story tower.

 

EDIT: as for timing, environmental abatement prior to demolition of the old county administration building for the Hilton hotel tower began in January 2014. Stark said he will start demolitions for nuCLEus after the RNC. So it's plausible that the smaller office portion could be completed by mid- to late-2018.

^ I think speaking generally for those of us that are able to provide feedback based on sources... It's not like we can come on here and spill every aching detail about a project or what we hear. There are confidentiality agreements and so on and so forth. Calling someone "high schoolish" because they will not say their sources or divulge a ton of detail is short sighted and selfish... The general perception in the market is that this project still has a long ways to go before they break ground, if it happens as designed. We've discussed that at length on here, at least what we can say publicaly. I think we all hope that this project is built, but there are rumblings in the market about the viability based on whatever - cost, feasibility, financing, etc...

 

My sources are chief brokers in commercial real estate downtown and executives at Walsh construction. 

 

 

Does the delay affect the entire development or the vertical, non-retail/parking portion?

Just as an interesting note from the SCT ad, this is the first time the ad has ever indicated a groundbreaking date- "Construction Starting 2016". So that's something. I know Stark likes the big announcements and talks about his love for downtown but up to this point has proven nothing but being a suburban developer. And he worries me because he would think nothing of going after Medical Mutual as a fit for Crocker Park.  But I think it's his son that is driving Nucleus .

What is SCT?

 

^ Industry mag -  Shopping Center Today.

Not to be a Debbie downer but there was a sign up at Flats East Bank back in 2008... Coming in 2009.  Also, how many of you remember the failed Marous Development "District Park" on West 9th in early 2000's...  They had a website, leasig office, taking deposits, etc

... and the model showing all three phases, which probably cost a pretty penny. Not speaking on behalf of everyone but plenty of forumers have been following development in Cleveland for a long time; I think it's premature to be either boosterish *or* a downer.

That model is nicer than my apartment.

^i wish those would come back. I'm in the market for a new apartment or condo ? But I digress...

District Park was built, It just moved. Its now called Battery Park. Marous Brothers/Vintage Development...same thing.

^i wish those would come back. I'm in the market for a new apartment or condo ? But I digress...

 

And the parking lot it was slated to be built on has been for sale for YEARS. 

Isn't that parking lot basically the foundation of a building too?

District Park was built, It just moved. Its now called Battery Park. Marous Brothers/Vintage Development...same thing.

 

And if I recall correctly, the ultimate reason given for the suspension of development was a large increase in the price of structural steel from when the project was first proposed. Seems that with steel currently being relatively weak, and the downtown market being that much more robust than in the mid- to late 2000, District Park could be viable again for Marous, or another developer.

 

^yes and ^^yes but that's a topic for the warehouse thread

Back to the comments regarding the timing of construction start, I seem to remember in the initial flurry of stories about Nucleus where Stark said something to the effect that the aggressive timeline was one of the underpinnings of the rationale for this project.  Didn't they even say some of it, perhaps the parking and retail, could be open in time for the RNC?  This tells me at the very least, things are taking longer than first envisioned.  At worst, it was a lot of hype designed to build momentum for an overly ambitious project.

Talked to some friends with inside knowledge today, and they say that this is a no go :(

Talked to some friends with inside knowledge today, and they say that this is a no go :(

 

This, if true, is the buzz kill of the decade.

How the heck does this go from "he has national retailers already committed" to this is a no go so quickly. More clarity please

Yeah seriously!? Do they maybe mean that it's not a no-go this year perhaps? Does anyone have any clue what stark has going on?

I'd put about zero faith in anything not directly from Stark. People "in the know" quite often claim things are going downhill because it's a fantastic talking point.

 

None of us know. Not even our sources, no matter how close to the project they are. The only people who know are Stark and the people he's asking for money from. Everything else is just hearsay and filtered through people's perspectives and biases.

How the heck does this go from "he has national retailers already committed" to this is a no go so quickly. More clarity please

 

Commitments from national retailers doesn't mean a thing.  Probably a non binding letter of intent.  Plenty of "outs" for both parties

I'd put about zero faith in anything not directly from Stark. People "in the know" quite often claim things are going downhill because it's a fantastic talking point.

 

None of us know. Not even our sources, no matter how close to the project they are. The only people who know are Stark and the people he's asking for money from. Everything else is just hearsay and filtered through people's perspectives and biases.

 

Not sure I'd put any faith in something directly from Stark either.

I'd put about zero faith in anything not directly from Stark. People "in the know" quite often claim things are going downhill because it's a fantastic talking point.

 

None of us know. Not even our sources, no matter how close to the project they are. The only people who know are Stark and the people he's asking for money from. Everything else is just hearsay and filtered through people's perspectives and biases.

 

Not sure I'd put any faith in something directly from Stark either.

 

Haha, true. But still, the point is that unless it's coming from someone official it's more or less useless information as much as we all love to speculate and analyze our sources' information, myself included.

Gottaplan's comments concern me more. He has more experience in local development circles. But it's best to wait for something official.

I believe nothing going to be built, in November 2014 Stark said this is going to be fast track jan. or feb of 2015 we will start demo of site and have parking garage done for r.n.c, than I heard aug of 2015 for site work nothing now it feb 2016 still nothing, I e-mailed someone involved with law firm taking 66,500 sq ft  of the office tower and they said

they are still in but not sure about stark, if I was a builder and there was a 1,800 waiting list for apartments plus I had a tenant that was taking 4 or 5 floors of my building, I would not be waiting for the r.n.c I be building, same goes for 515 Euclid why wait. To tell you the truth I believe most of what we here is to be built downtown will never happen,

that just the way Cleveland rolls, everytime something good is talked about that's all it is is talk. It's great that they fixed up all the old building"s but a game changer like nucleus never.

I understand it's hard to shake old perceptions, but much of what has been proposed since the recession has been built or is under construction in Cleveland. Perhaps being a pessimist serves as a shield from revisiting deep disappointments experienced in the past. Maybe it's best not to get emotionally invested in things over which you have no control.

 

Stark has talked a good game downtown before and after the recession but has yet to produce. But consider this... Stark has invested 10s of millions of dollars downtown this time, so I think he has a strong motivation to produce something tangible even if it isn't the rendering that currently appears in his marketing materials. So don't head for the I-480 bridge yet (or at all). We're in a very different time in the history of U.S. cities in general and Cleveland in particular.

Unless someone has some real solid first hand knowledge can we stop with the speculation and rumors?

Did anyone else notice that in the State of Downtown report that DCA put out doesn't reference hotel rooms for nuCLEus? They talk about planned projects on page 8 and mention 279 hotel rooms in the former Huntington building (925 Euclid) but don't mention any for nuCLEus...

The project can roughly be divided into two phases, 1, parking structure with groud floor retail, and the second being the tower with hotel and everything else.

 

Just my personal opinion, if they did the first phase and delayed the second, I would still be delighted with the project. 

 

We all know there is going to be competition for tenents in a new office building.  There is a market for at least one new tower, but that does not mean that Stark's plan will be the winning one. (for now)

They reference 500 apartments though which I would assume they're taking the tower into account.

Talmer Bank and Trust which according to the sign on the Stark property as providing financing for the Nucleus project is merging with Chemical Bank.  Wonder if this is having any effect as Stark continues to seek financing. The Chemical Bank board will now call the shots. Could be good could be bad.

 

http://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2016/01/26/talmer-bank-chemical-bank/79340328/

Noticed this on Eventbrite.

Happening tomorrow at Red

^Good grab... interesting.

^^Now the apartments went down by 50 and again no mention of the hotel? Interesting...

I'll be there too.  Should be an interesting presentation.

^^Now the apartments went down by 50 and again no mention of the hotel? Interesting...

 

From January 2015: "The entire nuCLEus project could include 500 residences, 1,600 parking spaces, 200,000 square feet of offices and 140,000 square feet of retail, plus the hotel"

 

Doesn't sound too much different to me?  Just no mention of the Hotel.

 

I won't be able to attend, hopefully someone you can fill us in!

^^Now the apartments went down by 50 and again no mention of the hotel? Interesting...

 

From January 2015: "The entire nuCLEus project could include 500 residences, 1,600 parking spaces, 200,000 square feet of offices and 140,000 square feet of retail, plus the hotel"

 

Doesn't sound too much different to me?  Just no mention of the Hotel.

 

I won't be able to attend, hopefully someone you can fill us in!

 

A subtraction of 75 apartments and 70,000 SF of office space as well as eliminating the hotel seems like a pretty big reduction to me. They did add 10,000 SF of retail and some parking spots but it’s still a net loss of space. Seems like maybe the scale of the building is going to decrease. Just speculation.

A loss of 75 apartments could mean nothing more than them finalizing the mix of unit sizes and finding larger units would be more profitable long-term over a higher unit count. For all we know those 425 units represent an increase in residential area over their original estimate of 500 units.

 

It could also mean that that prediction was optimistic and when design actually was worked through thoroughly they found they really only had room for 425 units in their design.

Also some of the apts were to be for sale (condos). I hope that that is still in the mix. I would readily buy a place downtown at $2k/month, but will definitely not pay that in rent. buyers are investing in the longer term to the downtown neighborhood than are renters.

Hopefully the reduction in number of units means adding in some extra 3 bedroom units. Even though I personally don't need that many bedrooms, I see the lack of them downtown driving out a whole segment of current and potential residents.

Big picture - relief!  There was some speculation in this forum that the project might not happen at all - that rumor seems now to be

put to rest - As were some others, I'm also wondering about the reduction by 70,000 SF of office space.  The Stark Enterprise website still had

the old numbers (200,000sq office space) up as of today, April 6.  I would think the CoreNet presentation is the updated, correct number.

And if a hotel is no longer part of it- seems it would be a significant downsizing in the height and mass of Nucleus.  Very curious to see

if a new design is revealed at the presentation.

Based on a reliable source I heard from today, the hotel is still part of the project (despite it not being in the Corenet description above).

I thought we were holding off posting any rumors in this thread...

Really? then what makes this board more insightful than reading a press release or a news story?

Really? then what makes this board more insightful than reading a press release or a news story?

 

Agreed... not to mention interesting as well.  Once you start hearing news/plans from contractors, then real things are getting planned.  I know an HVAC contractor has already been contacted about this project and Weston Citymark.  The HVAC guy seems to think that Citymark will start first, though he believes both projects are a definite.

Any updates from the meeting last night?

I'm not fully aware of everything that has been announced, but I don't think anything new was unveiled.  That said, here are my notes.  I don't recall the name of the presenter, but it was a guy I'd say in his mid 30s, so obviously not Bob Stark.  He did a good job.  This is all to the best of my recollection / note taking, so please forgive me if I got anything wrong.

• They expect to break ground middle of this fall.  Delivery will be late 2018 / early 2019 and they are expecting a two year absorption from there
  
• Financing - the equity is committed and the financing is just about done, but there are a lot of components to it.  The presenter talked about getting it all wrapped up soon so they could break ground mid fall.  He referenced that maybe he was being a bit aggressive on getting everything tied up quickly on the financing to be ready for a mid fall ground breaking and one of their attorneys in the audience nodded in agreement
  
• Office  - I think he said they are 65% preleased with Benesch taking 90k and they have another 60k committed
  
• Residential - said the top 5 (I think) floors are being underwritten as apartments, but they'd like to sell as condos if market will bear.  Residential unit numbers and size are not finalized, but the apartments right now would be around 1,000 sf and those upper 5 floors would be 2,000 sf.  Said they are going back and forth on whether there will be balconies.  Also waiting on wind studies that could impact this.
  
• Retail -  I THINK he said they were 65% preleased on this, but I may have misheard so I'm not 100% sure.  He said to expect 3-4 announcements before ICSC convention in May.  They are targeting national tenants and have several national restaurants committed.  They are targeting unique brands that are not in Cle that typically have high volume sales.  Mentioned they are not looking to compete with local chef driven product.  As far as retailers, it has been a tough sell so far.  He said a lot of retailers can look at tenant mix and understand if a national restaurant can make something work, then maybe the retailer can go in too, but it's hard for the retailers to gauge the market based on local restaurants.  He talked about potentially holding back some space to target national retailers to go in after national restaurants 
  
• Parking deal is done with operator in place.  I think he said "ABS"??
  
• Hotel operator is Olympia out of Portland ME
  
• Was asked about LEED/green - he said they have tax abatement for the residential so they must meet city of Cleveland green community standards.
  
• Roof - said they were open to feedback but their goal is to make a statement and not duplicate existing buildings. Sounds like they aren't changing it. 
  

Nice work on the notes!

Thanks for the updates!