I wonder if Stark was introduced to LA real estate when he bought the parking craters in the Warehouse District (which are again for sale) and Gateway District (proposed site of nuCLEus) from the LA-based company?

Is the project that was slated for the Warehouse district no longer a reality?  If so, does this help or hurt nuCLEus?

Is the project that was slated for the Warehouse district no longer a reality?  If so, does this help or hurt nuCLEus?

 

There is a different thread devoted to that. But I have not heard a peep from CityMark or Weston. The only potential reason for the silence may be Weston's development of the Standard Building at the moment.

 

Nonetheless, I believe NuCLEus will function independent of that development. Personally, I do not think either will be realized until more areas of downtown convert from apartments to condominiums.

Just because I wish the best for Stark and that this project goes forward, I think about the proposed preservation and re-purposing of these buildings along Prospect. Let's not forget the very real historic nature of this location. I've mentioned earlier upthread that this would be a very do-able restoration of a rock-n-roll landmark.

Just because I wish the best for Stark and that this project goes forward, I think about the proposed preservation and re-purposing of these buildings along Prospect. Let's not forget the very real historic nature of this location. I've mentioned earlier upthread that this would be a very do-able restoration of a rock-n-roll landmark.

 

I agree and absolutely believe in historic preservation in Cleveland's core along with new construction and growth like nuCLEus.  The Record Rendezvous building will require a lot of internal shoring up as it's in very bad shape according to an older article by Michelle IIRC... but it's definitely worth it.

Just because I wish the best for Stark and that this project goes forward, I think about the proposed preservation and re-purposing of these buildings along Prospect. Let's not forget the very real historic nature of this location. I've mentioned earlier upthread that this would be a very do-able restoration of a rock-n-roll landmark.

 

I agree and absolutely believe in historic preservation in Cleveland's core along with new construction and growth like nuCLEus.  The Record Rendezvous building will require a lot of internal shoring up as it's in very bad shape according to an older article by Michelle IIRC... but it's definitely worth it.

 

Is it worth it to a private developer though? That's what matters

That's when the Landmarks Commission needs to step in.

The Landmarks Commission doesn't step in and make a building get renovated.  That's not how that works.

Of course I know that. I'm talking about protecting the buildings as historic properties, which is either a local, state of national designation for which a property owner must seek an exemption to either significantly alter or demolish.

The Landmarks Commission doesn't step in and make a building get renovated.  That's not how that works.

 

The Restoration Society does though.  Contact Kathleen Crowther or Michael Fleenor.  They will respond to an email. 

Spoke with some Stark employees (or at least agents to Stark, I'm unsure) in the 515 Garage. They all rolled their eyes when I asked how this was going :(

That probably honestly means very little. I knew some people working on various high profile projects around the world, all of which have since come to fruition in a timely manner, who went on and on about how they'll, "never happen as planned" or "have no funding" or "there's no market for that."

 

Most people, even those who may be working on a specific project, honestly know very little about how it'll work out in the end. Especially with real estate development. People can speculate all they want but it's very often even those not far from the top get it completely wrong when it comes to new projects.

gottaplan[/member]  If I recall you have been one of the least confident this project would ever move forward.  So coming from you this is a good sign. Can you share what you learned?

 

Speaking with the construction folks from Walsh that are building the tower.  They are moving full speed ahead.  I still think the Stark team will have a major uphill battle to find office tenants, deal with a softening hotel market and lease apartments at a rate even higher than FEB or the Nine...  Certainly not rooting against it though, it's very exciting

 

Circling way way back to this, I'm told the Walsh people were recently informed the project is delayed again at least 4 months.  Talking to real estate folks, the hotel market is saturated in Cleveland and the retail component does very little to add value.  It seems Stark should just scrap all the other layers and just focus on the office component.  Not what everyone wants to hear and certainly not predicting anything here either...

^ I wouldn't be surprise if we're still talking about this next year with no construction unless only the office portion is built as you suggested.

I can understand how the hotel market could be saturated right now - but even if that aspect of Nucleus was eliminated couldn't that still mean (at the least) that the Jenga Tower part of Nucleus could still rise with the dimensions originally planned?  Between the office segment and apartment (or condo) demand I would think there would still be enough demand to result in one new skyscraper. I'm not sure how the office and residential components coexist in Nucleus but wasn't the hotel in " the bridge"?  I would be interested in the more informed speculations of you experts on a possibly smaller redesign of Nucleus  if the hotel piece has become problematic.

I can understand how the hotel market could be saturated right now - but even if that aspect of Nucleus was eliminated couldn't that still mean (at the least) that the Jenga Tower part of Nucleus could still rise with the dimensions originally planned?  Between the office segment and apartment (or condo) demand I would think there would still be enough demand to result in one new skyscraper. I'm not sure how the office and residential components coexist in Nucleus but wasn't the hotel in " the bridge"?  I would be interested in the more informed speculations of you experts on a possibly smaller redesign of Nucleus  if the hotel piece has become problematic.

 

Given how far out Nucleus completion is and how many apartment projects are currently underway, the market could shift in 2 years and apartment demand could significantly soften in Cleveland, especially for new construction, high-end product.  Condo market downtown is unpredictable as well for high end.  What has been completed recently as a comp in the downtown market?

 

If the hotel, retail & condo's were removed from the project, what size is the building?  I can't remember what the total SF of office proposed, but figure 22k - 25k per floor...  not including the first floor.

^ I agree with your assessment.  I don't know of any sizable condo development in or near the CBD in quite a while.  The last attempt was the Avenue which ended up mired in legal difficulties.  I think if NuCleUs happens in the next year or so it will be like office only or very heavily office and that's only if they can snag MedMutal or SW.

^SW will not be in a shared building, they will be in their own.

^ I would assume that their need for a solo building wouldn't be big enough for NuCleus then?

It's been so long since we heard from Stark on nuCLEus, would it surprise anyone if he went back to the drawing board to go after Sherwin Williams or Medical Mutual? Maybe that isn't realistic -- I don't know how far along he was with design, financing, etc with the original plans.

^ I would assume that their need for a solo building wouldn't be big enough for NuCleus then?

 

They already had a commitment from Benesch lawfirm.  Maybe one or two other tenants perhaps?

^ I forgot about Benesch.  Perhaps if the could snag MM too that would be enough. Frankly, I'm fine if only one part of the development gets built but perhaps they can do a mixed use office/housing with like a 80/20 mix.  That way they are not putting many new housing units out there.

I know some of the other sites that MM is looking at.  Can't imagine they are also considering brand new space.  It would be the most expensive space in NE ohio when you include all the parking required for employees

I can understand how the hotel market could be saturated right now - but even if that aspect of Nucleus was eliminated couldn't that still mean (at the least) that the Jenga Tower part of Nucleus could still rise with the dimensions originally planned?  Between the office segment and apartment (or condo) demand I would think there would still be enough demand to result in one new skyscraper. I'm not sure how the office and residential components coexist in Nucleus but wasn't the hotel in " the bridge"?  I would be interested in the more informed speculations of you experts on a possibly smaller redesign of Nucleus  if the hotel piece has become problematic.

 

Given how far out Nucleus completion is and how many apartment projects are currently underway, the market could shift in 2 years and apartment demand could significantly soften in Cleveland, especially for new construction, high-end product.  Condo market downtown is unpredictable as well for high end.  What has been completed recently as a comp in the downtown market?

 

If the hotel, retail & condo's were removed from the project, what size is the building?  I can't remember what the total SF of office proposed, but figure 22k - 25k per floor...  not including the first floor.

 

200k sq feet of office space is purposed.  Stark and Benesch are taking roughly half of it. 

The downtown Cleveland residential market is vastly undeveloped and has a lot of room left to grow. So while fears of a softening of the downtown residential market are worth noting, it is at least as likely to go in the opposite direction.

The downtown Cleveland residential market is vastly undeveloped and has a lot of room left to grow. So while fears of a softening of the downtown residential market are worth noting, it is at least as likely to go in the opposite direction.

 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Considering the target market is predominately young professionals and empty nesters, how many are out there that

 

A) want to live down town

B) can afford rents around $2/sf

 

Given how many units have been added in the last 2 years and how many more are in progress, I think it's safe to expect the market to cool off

 

Big picture, Cleveland downtown is not significantly adding jobs.  At least not at a rate much faster than the suburbs.  I know of more new suburban office projects in the pipeline/underway than downtown. 

^ There are not very many new jobs being created downtown but I wonder if there are enough in midtown and University Circle (including CC and UH). I haven't seen this data in while.

The downtown Cleveland residential market is vastly undeveloped and has a lot of room left to grow. So while fears of a softening of the downtown residential market are worth noting, it is at least as likely to go in the opposite direction.

 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Considering the target market is predominately young professionals and empty nesters, how many are out there that

 

A) want to live down town

B) can afford rents around $2/sf

 

Given how many units have been added in the last 2 years and how many more are in progress, I think it's safe to expect the market to cool off

 

Big picture, Cleveland downtown is not significantly adding jobs.  At least not at a rate much faster than the suburbs.  I know of more new suburban office projects in the pipeline/underway than downtown. 

 

Downtown is still ADDING jobs.  Neither Millenia nor NRP have relocated their ee's to downtown yet,  but they will before 2017 is over. 

 

The answers to both A & B are a lot.  Don't underestimate the number of workers who reverse commute as well.  I don't think I could even count the number of people I know who work in Solon, Westlake, Strongsville, etc, but live downtown. 

If you build it they will come. This project will be in the middle of all the excitement downtown. A perfect spot for millennials and young professionals, as well as empty nesters. They will come.

What percentage of the metro area's residents are living downtown?

 

What percent of other metro-area residents are living downtown?

 

The answer will reveal how much Cleveland can still grow (as does downtown Cleveland's rising rents and high/stable occupancy rates as more inventory is added to the market).

^ Dr. Bier from CSU did a study on this and I believe his conclusion is that 1% of the MSA could easily be absorbed in the CBD. 

Big picture' date=' Cleveland downtown is not significantly adding jobs.  At least not at a rate much faster than the suburbs.  I know of more new suburban office projects in the pipeline/underway than downtown. [/quote']

 

Doesn't matter. Per 2014 data, for downtown residents, excluding those who work at home, more of them work OUTSIDE of downtown than downtown. Yet they live Downtown. Meaning, people want to live Downtown--not because their jobs are there, but because they want to be downtown.

 

Here are the numbers:

There are 3,686 people who live downtown who have jobs (excluding self-employed and postal & FBI/DHS employees). Of those 1,176 work in 44113, 44114, or 44115. This totals 31.9%.  So the remaining 2500 people (68.1%) leave Downtown each day for work.  (543 people work in 44106---14.7%).  (The boundaries of downtown I used are shown on the map a few posts below.)

 

3,686 sounds low, as DCA touts 15,000 people living Downtown. Some are self-employed. But remember, the 15k number includes those in group quarters, Justice Center populations, students, retirees--both at the CMHA tower on Superior as well as throughout Downtown...

DCAs number does not include the Justice Center or anything beyond innebelt

Big picture' date=' Cleveland downtown is not significantly adding jobs.  At least not at a rate much faster than the suburbs.  I know of more new suburban office projects in the pipeline/underway than downtown. [/quote']

 

Doesn't matter. Per 2014 data, for downtown residents, excluding those who work at home, more of them work OUTSIDE of downtown than downtown. Yet they live Downtown. Meaning, people want to live Downtown--not because their jobs are there, but because they want to be downtown.

 

Here are the numbers:

There are 3,686 people who live downtown who have jobs (excluding self-employed). Of those 1,176 work in 44113, 44114, or 44115. This totals 31.9%.  So the remaining 2500 people (68.1%) leave Downtown each day for work.  (543 people work in 44106---14.7%).

 

3,686 sounds low, as DCA touts 15,000 people living Downtown. Some are self-employed. But remember, the 15k number includes those in group quarters, Justice Center populations, students, retirees--both at the CMHA tower on Superior as well as throughout Downtown...

 

Correct. This idea of looking at jobs in the area and using that to determine the market size and potential for housing is antiquated, especially when we're talking about downtown. First of all, downtown is a neighborhood of choice. There are some people who move downtown to be closer to their work, but I would wager that it's not most people. People live there because they want to. It's about the experience and the quality of life. Second of all, let's be honest, if you live downtown, you're probably making good money already anyway. You can commute to work with few problems. We're not talking about some working class neighborhood here where other considerations matter more. You ain't broke if you're living downtown.

DCAs number does not include the Justice Center or anything beyond innebelt

 

This is how I defined Downtown  (east bank of the river to the lake to the innerebelt to carnegie:

 

 

The pattern of most cities throughout history has been the wealthy would live near the center, with the others away from it.

I'll bet nothing happens with the public financing until after the mayoral election.

 

Benesch is extending stay at 200 Public Square

June 25, 2017

By STAN BULLARD

 

When the proposed 45-story nuCLEus tower begins rising skyward remains unknown, but move-in day for major tenant Benesch, Friedlander Coplan & Aronoff has been pushed back to 2021 or even 2022.

 

The major downtown Cleveland law firm recently renewed its lease with its current landlord at 200 Public Square until July 2022, although it secured the ability to leave the building as much as a year earlier, July 2021, according to a lease recorded in Cuyahoga County land records.

 

John Banks, chief operating officer/chief financial officer of Benesch, said, "We remain fully committed to the (nuCLEus) project. However there's been some delay for it."

 

MORE:

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20170625/NEWS/170629871/benesch-is-extending-stay-at-200-public-square

From the article:

Ezra Stark, chief operating officer of the family-owned real estate development company, said, "It's a non-story" when asked about Benesch renewing its lease at the former BP Tower.

 

"They're just creating a buffer for themselves," Stark said. "For us, nothing has changed. We're shovel-ready (at nuCLEus) when we get our public financing approved."

Your marquee tenant extending their existing lease for 2 years is not a non story. It's an acknowledgment Benesch doesn't think nucleus will break ground any time soon.

 

When the proposed 45-story nuCLEus tower begins rising skyward remains unknown ...

 

The incredible shrinking skyscraper: First it was 54 stories, then 48 stories, now 45 stories.

From the article:

Ezra Stark, chief operating officer of the family-owned real estate development company, said, "It's a non-story" when asked about Benesch renewing its lease at the former BP Tower.

 

"They're just creating a buffer for themselves," Stark said. "For us, nothing has changed. We're shovel-ready (at nuCLEus) when we get our public financing approved."

Your marquee tenant extending their existing lease for 2 years is not a non story. It's an acknowledgment Benesch doesn't think nucleus will break ground any time soon.

 

But it also implies that Benesch still believes the project is going to happen (or am I reading too much into them simply not walking away at this point?)

I guess it's  better news than them negoiating a much longer lease or leaving for another building...

The article does not mention a hotel. Is the hotel out?

If there's no change to the hotel situation, then there's no need to mention it in a news article. And it's not important for background info. The article also doesn't mention what apparently has been the hang-up with this project -- that the TIF agreement with the school district remains in limbo. Apparently the mayor, who controls the school board, considers the TIF to be controversial with some voters and doesn't want it's passage to harm his chances of re-election. That's probably why this project is on hold until after the election.

Bullard's article DOES mention four components of the property - NOT mentioned in that sentence in relation to change.  I say there's no hotel expected, at this time. I'm very skeptacle about any of Stark's announcenents - the way huge, multi-block, mixed-use project proposed for the Warehouse District fizzled out!  I say there's about 10%about a n  What a shame.  i say there's about a 10% chance nuCLEus will materialize at all...

A TIF package doesn't preclude the Stark, or any property owner, making a "payment in lieu of taxes" to the schools. Forest City had done this with it's TIFs for several components of it's Tower City, Skylight Tower, and Ritz Carleton project back in the 1990s.

 

Now if Stark has no interest in paying it's fair share of educating Cleveland school children - well that is another matter altogether, and sleazy if that's the plan.

Bullard's article DOES mention four components of the property - NOT mentioned in that sentence in relation to change.  I say there's no hotel expected, at this time. I'm very skeptacle about any of Stark's announcenents - the way huge, multi-block, mixed-use project proposed for the Warehouse District fizzled out!  I say there's about 10%about a n  What a shame.  i say there's about a 10% chance nuCLEus will materialize at all...

 

Can you name another development that Stark Enterprises has failed to deliver? How is Weston/Citymark doing so far in delivering its own Warehouse District Superblock development? And, on what are your odds of success/failure of nuCLEus based?

Bullard's article DOES mention four components of the property - NOT mentioned in that sentence in relation to change.  I say there's no hotel expected, at this time. I'm very skeptacle about any of Stark's announcenents - the way huge, multi-block, mixed-use project proposed for the Warehouse District fizzled out!  I say there's about 10%about a n  What a shame.  i say there's about a 10% chance nuCLEus will materialize at all...

 

Can you name another development that Stark Enterprises has failed to deliver? How is Weston/Citymark doing so far in delivering its own Warehouse District Superblock development? And, on what are your odds of success/failure of nuCLEus based?

 

I'm with KJP[/member] here for the most part. However, spoke with a friend of mine on the legal side of the financing for the project and said he gives this thing a 5-10% chance of ever being anything beyond a multi-level parking garage.

NuCLEus will get done in some form.

Another Stark proposal that didn't happen: huge mixed-use project near downtown Solon.

NuCLEus will get done in some form.

 

I think "some form" might mean a parking garage with street level retail.