September 13, 20231 yr 45 minutes ago, sooner said: Hope Bridgeworks followed by Bedrock phase 1. Maybe Bedrock will be followed by Bridgeworks? 😜 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
September 13, 20231 yr 19 hours ago, WhatUp said: I know a lot of the conversation also goes into the Cleveland Development Map thread, but I'm trying to re-start the predictions! I tried to make a list of everything I thought hasn't started yet, but I know I have left a bunch out. Please predict what you think, hope, pray and wish is next. ... and maybe what will never come to be. Demo/site prep? : The Apartments at Bolivar, 1060-1124 Bolivar Rd The Rockefeller Westinghouse Cleveland Police Artcraft Building Centennial United Church of Christ Church Building University Circle Stokes West Centrovilla 25 CCF Global Center for Pathogen and Human Health Research Cleveland Heights Cedar Lee Meadowbrook Next to start (in no particular order) : Warner & Swasey renovation Weston / Reallife Warehouse District Flats East Bank Wolstein-Kenect apartment building Flats East Bank (not Kenect) NuCLEus site project Harbor Bay's Market Square phase 2 Greyhound site Lumen phase 2 Ballpark village Erieview Tower CSU new arena Wolstein Center redevelopment Rock & Roll Hall of Fame expansion 4732 Lorain CWRU new Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering Building (ISEB), Voss Industries ‘Carriage works’ site The Village Partnership project (Slavic Village neighborhood redevelopment) Chester 82 Chester 75 East 9th/Bolivar Spaghetti House lot Dream Hotel Hulett Hotel Delta Hotel by Marriott Midtown The Uptown seven-story Beach Building addition Sokolowski’s property, 1201 University Rd., six-story apartment building Columbus Road Peninsula. The Pine, 45-unit Bridgeworks One Lakewood Place 2208 Superior Viaduct 1250 Riverbed / The Apollo Nautica Justice Center Courthouse County Jail Brown’s Stadium Lakefront development Old River Road Samsel Supply Bedrock: Vision for the Valley Circle square (next building) The Pearl Hough Tower – 9410 Hough Ave Canon Healthcare USA’s new headquarters (maybe no actual construction) Shoreway Tower Blue Abyss Diving Ltd. deep sea and space research center Arkitainer Hough Paradigm Apartments Infinium Ontario Stone 5 Acre Parcel Shoreline Phase II Silverhills at Thunderbird Woodhill Station Woodhill Center East Agora Apartments Asiatown Food Hall City Block (BlockLand Tech Hub) Hough Bakeries Renovation Ohio Bell Pilsener Square Woodhill Station and Woodhill Center East are both well under construction, I think Silverhills could be considered in site prep at least It would be awesome to see NuCLEus or one of the FEB projects started, in addition to Bedrock’s riverfront plan
April 18, 20241 yr For those in the know - which is not me, which is the most likely new "whale" project to get underway. From my list (which would a wish list): -Justice Center Courthouse Tower -SWH Tower II -Rocket Mortgage Tower -New Cleveland Cliffs HQ??? -Lumen II?? -New Skyline-changing Hotel?? -New Jones Day Cleveland HQ/Back-Office (wishful thinking for new build)? -Something else!!!!
April 18, 20241 yr I love your post @Chazz Michael Michaels Because it gives us six new towers! Woo hoo! CLE! You can just tell the UrbanOhio crowd is super hyped for some hot new tower rumors!
April 19, 20241 yr 44 minutes ago, CleveFan said: I love your post @Chazz Michael Michaels Because it gives us six new towers! Woo hoo! CLE! You can just tell the UrbanOhio crowd is super hyped for some hot new tower rumors! Why not us!?!? IMHO - Cleveland is set up nicely for the future
April 19, 20241 yr 6 hours ago, Chazz Michael Michaels said: For those in the know - which is not me, which is the most likely new "whale" project to get underway. From my list (which would a wish list): -Justice Center Courthouse Tower -SWH Tower II -Rocket Mortgage Tower -New Cleveland Cliffs HQ??? -Lumen II?? -New Skyline-changing Hotel?? -New Jones Day Cleveland HQ/Back-Office (wishful thinking for new build)? -Something else!!!! My guess is the Justice Center?
April 19, 20241 yr I'd say SW II. The current tower will be completed around the end of the year. I'm not an insider, but if what we've heard is true and the current building is too small, SW will want to get that going quickly. Whatever the new Courthouse is still has to have its developer named, the site formally chosen, cleared and made ready for construction. SW II is essentially ready to go, or otherwise way further ahead in the process.
April 19, 20241 yr I'm not sure which project will be next, but it would be nice to see that huge parking crater at 4th & Prospect developed soon. It would add some much needed density to the CBD and fill a gap in the skyline.
April 19, 20241 yr I was starting to reply with an answer but it started sounding like an article so, I figured, OK I'll write an article and incorporate some of the reasons why many developments aren't going to be happening for 6-12 months. Of course, the reason is always one thing -- money. If you don't already have it, you're not going to get it to building anything for a while. That's my hint as to what is and isn't imminent. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 19, 20241 yr 3 hours ago, LibertyBlvd said: I'm not sure which project will be next, but it would be nice to see that huge parking crater at 4th & Prospect developed soon. It would add some much needed density to the CBD and fill a gap in the skyline. Batter up! 😜 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 19, 20241 yr 1 minute ago, KJP said: I was starting to reply with an answer but it started sounding like an article so, I figured, OK I'll write an article and incorporate some of the reasons why many developments aren't going to be happening for 6-12 months. Of course, the reason is always one thing -- money. If you don't already have it, you're not going to get it to building anything for a while. That's my hint as to what is and isn't imminent. With inflation as high as its remained I’m starting to think “survive until 2025” might get pushed out until 2026
April 19, 20241 yr 47 minutes ago, Henke said: With inflation as high as its remained I’m starting to think “survive until 2025” might get pushed out until 2026 Not necessarily. The key is consistancy in the rate of inflation which seems to be in the 3-3.5% range adusted annually. If you can price in those increases with some accuracy, you can then you can have a better handle on your budget and raise funds accordingly. Its the "shocks" that get you. Those cant be budgeted in
April 19, 20241 yr I meant as far as the timing of the federal reserve lowering interest rates. Originally they were targeted to begin June of 2024, but now they’re saying March of 2025 is when they will begin to lower. And I think it’s unlikely that much lending happens until we’ve settled at our long term rate, which is likely not coming until 2026 at this point.
April 19, 20241 yr One can argue we raised rates too quickly and its impact on inflation may be overstated. It's all so politicized and biased who can tell. But it would be a miracle if they raised rates in less than a year, and I wonder if that would make a difference. Offshoring, material costs, hybrid work and AI are plaguing good jobs regardless, and it will only get worse with AI. Outside a handful of cities, commercial real estate is so doomed in so much of the country even if lending were to get a little cheaper. Can't be bullish on any large projects outside of residential frankly Edited April 19, 20241 yr by TBideon
April 19, 20241 yr The did raise rates fairly quickly but the problem wasn't that so much as they waited too long to begin raising them. And while 6-7 % isn't all that high (l remember when they got to the high teens in the late 70's) compared to 1% in the recent past it comes off as a kind of sticker schock. I agree we'll have to wait probably a year until they fall enough for most big projects to get started. Not to mention the whole WFH crap putting a real damper on office buildings. It is amazing to see SHW bucking the trend.
April 20, 20241 yr 19 hours ago, KJP said: I was starting to reply with an answer but it started sounding like an article so, I figured, OK I'll write an article and incorporate some of the reasons why many developments aren't going to be happening for 6-12 months. Of course, the reason is always one thing -- money. If you don't already have it, you're not going to get it to building anything for a while. That's my hint as to what is and isn't imminent. Wait - so is there an article forthcoming? I'm not saying I live for your articles but "THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I'M SAYING!!" :)
April 20, 20241 yr 20 hours ago, cadmen said: The did raise rates fairly quickly but the problem wasn't that so much as they waited too long to begin raising them. And while 6-7 % isn't all that high (l remember when they got to the high teens in the late 70's) compared to 1% in the recent past it comes off as a kind of sticker schock. I agree we'll have to wait probably a year until they fall enough for most big projects to get started. Not to mention the whole WFH crap putting a real damper on office buildings. It is amazing to see SHW bucking the trend. The prime rate in the late 70's, very early 80's was around 14%. Even with good credit, an auto loan was north of 20%. And yet, National City, Eaton, Medical Mutual and Ohio Bell all got built. Was North Point built in this era also?
April 23, 20241 yr Told ya I'd turn it into an article! 😁 Downtown’s next crane may be MIA for a while By Ken Prendergast / April 23, 2024 While the nation’s employment is high and incomes are rising, in many respects, the slowdown in new real estate construction projects is the worst the nation has seen since the credit crunch of 2008-10. Back then, everything stopped. Nothing new was getting built. Things aren’t too different now unless you’re building new data centers, warehouses or small housing projects. MORE: https://neo-trans.blog/2024/04/23/downtowns-next-crane-may-be-mia-for-a-while/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 23, 20241 yr On 4/19/2024 at 5:58 PM, cadmen said: The did raise rates fairly quickly but the problem wasn't that so much as they waited too long to begin raising them. And while 6-7 % isn't all that high (l remember when they got to the high teens in the late 70's) compared to 1% in the recent past it comes off as a kind of sticker schock. I agree we'll have to wait probably a year until they fall enough for most big projects to get started. Not to mention the whole WFH crap putting a real damper on office buildings. It is amazing to see SHW bucking the trend. I agree 6-7% isn't all that high, but that's for long-term money. 3-5-year construction loans are 10% for the best projects currently - 15% or more for the shakier stuff. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
April 23, 20241 yr Anyway you look at it each little rate hike will shake out some projects as different developers have different resources. Hopefully, the increased rates will slow the economy and thereby reduce inflation which will then allow the Feds to lower rates which will then allow more projects. Rinse and repeat.
April 23, 20241 yr My vote for next big project is either SHW 2.0 or something on the Riverfront. SHW and Bedrock have tons of cash and already have a head start on planning/design work. But I think the next year or two will probably be spent doing more planning/design and other prep work before we really see something large coming out of the ground.
April 23, 20241 yr Great article as per usual. Sounds like SHW HQ2, Bedrock Riverfront and the new Courthouse are the front runners for next. Please- for all that is holy - I hope that if the Cliffs/US Steel deal goes through, I hope KJP's sources are just posturing with this suburban campus stuff. Don't end up like Progressive and Eaton out in the suburbs wishing you weren't CLF
April 24, 20241 yr Author @KJP Any insights into whether the Vibrator apartments in Ohio City is "small enough" that it will go ahead sooner rather than later? The project has been pretty quiet since it was before Planning Commission (or was it Landmarks?) for initial approvals awhile back. Edited April 24, 20241 yr by Htsguy
April 24, 20241 yr It's probably too big in total. Perhaps it could be pursued in pieces unless TurnDev has some magic elixir it can bring to bear. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 24, 20241 yr On 4/19/2024 at 1:46 PM, Henke said: With inflation as high as its remained I’m starting to think “survive until 2025” might get pushed out until 2026 I’ve been told its survive until who knows when. It’s not coming down any time.
April 24, 20241 yr 3 hours ago, Htsguy said: @KJP Any insights into whether the Vibrator apartments in Ohio City is "small enough" that it will go ahead sooner rather than later? The project has been pretty quiet since it was before Planning Commission (or was it Landmarks?) for initial approvals awhile back. I’m sorry, the WHAT apartments? Who in the… nvm…
April 24, 20241 yr 22 minutes ago, columbus17 said: I’m sorry, the WHAT apartments? Who in the… nvm… Yep. And Batteries+Bulbs is the ground floor retail
April 24, 20241 yr what about circle square? there are several buildings planned, surely one of them could get underway soon?
April 24, 20241 yr 5 hours ago, Htsguy said: @KJP Any insights into whether the Vibrator apartments in Ohio City is "small enough" that it will go ahead sooner rather than later? The project has been pretty quiet since it was before Planning Commission (or was it Landmarks?) for initial approvals awhile back. 4 hours ago, KJP said: It's probably too big in total. Perhaps it could be pursued in pieces unless TurnDev has some magic elixir it can bring to bear. I'm going to assume the puns were intended and hilarious to those of us with a juvenile sense of humor.
May 18, 20241 yr Updated list based on Cliffs latest decision. Still not sure when/if news will ever arrive on the skyline changing hotel. My take from trying to keep on all of the articles is that the list below is probably in order of most likely outcome?? From my list (which would a wish list): -Justice Center Courthouse Tower -SWH Tower II -Rocket Mortgage Tower -New Skyline-changing Hotel?? -Lumen II?? -New Jones Day Cleveland HQ/Back-Office (wishful thinking for new build)? -Something else!!!! Out of contention: -New Cleveland Cliffs HQ???
May 18, 20241 yr ^If on that list Lumen II is the Playhouse Sq foundation project at the Greyhound station, I'd say that would be next. On your list, except for the Justice Center, its the only one not profit-based, and lending rates/construction costs too high for lots of for-profit projects. Re the Justice Center, yeah, that'll be a while for anything to happen there.
May 19, 20241 yr Not to forget about all the large redevelopments: Rockefeller Erieview Centennial and the decent sized redevelopments: United Church of Christ (did this start? I thought interior demo began, but nothing can be seen from the Cityclub construction cam) Westinghouse (same question as above) Flats Samsel Supply Ohio City Carriage Works Flats 1198, 1204 and 1220 Old River Rd As for new construction: Next phase of Circle Square mid/high rise in the Riverview plan FEB masterplan that could still include that Kenect building. There is also this website that can come in handy when trying to keep track of all the excitement: https://www.centerforcleveland.org/current-cle-projects
May 19, 20241 yr 18 hours ago, Chazz Michael Michaels said: Updated list based on Cliffs latest decision. Still not sure when/if news will ever arrive on the skyline changing hotel. My take from trying to keep on all of the articles is that the list below is probably in order of most likely outcome?? From my list (which would a wish list): -Justice Center Courthouse Tower -SWH Tower II -Rocket Mortgage Tower -New Skyline-changing Hotel?? -Lumen II?? -New Jones Day Cleveland HQ/Back-Office (wishful thinking for new build)? -Something else!!!! Out of contention: -New Cleveland Cliffs HQ??? I think that's a fair list. If Lumen II is built, I don't see it rising much more than 7-8 stories -- 2-3 stories of concrete podium, 5 stories of stick-build above. With those cheap construction methods, you could see Lumen II, III and IV. Where? Keep an eye on parking lots in PSQ that extend the built environment. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 19, 20241 yr Author It is interesting how the development world turns. Or maybe it is just my own ineptitude. This is the one and only thread I ever started. Way back in Oct 2014 so we are approaching 10 years. At the time my number one guess was the Brinkman Duck Island development (and to be fair to me a number of posters at the time agreed). As we know, not only was it not first, it didn't even happen-although we "eventually" got a scaled down development on the site (Waterford Bluffs). What is really sad is that two of the examples I used as possibly being ready for ground breaking "at any time now" didn't-and won't-even happen (Nucleus and a second Flats East Bank Office Building). And my saddest prediction of something that was going to be happen quite soon. LAKEFRONT DEVELOPMENT. Like I said, ten years ago and we are still in limbo. Although in reality this has been a sad 40 year saga. One University Circle and Lumen were also on my list and thank god they did eventually happen. Edited May 19, 20241 yr by Htsguy
May 19, 20241 yr That's why I resist making predictions. Most developments don't happen, regardless of city. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 19, 20241 yr We haven't been hearing anything about Rocket Mortgage in a while. Rather than building new, I wonder if they would consider moving into Landmark after SHW vacates?
May 20, 20241 yr Is the Cavs building on the river considered a whale? If so, I'd say that's next. They already started the bulkhead work. If you count the bulkhead work, you could say that the Riverfront has already kind of started to happen.
May 20, 20241 yr 1 million square feet or more is a whale. The Cavs-Clinic facility would be about 1/4 that. Still a big project. None of the others in Chazz's list are whales either unless you include the inevitable parking with the courthouse project. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 21, 20241 yr I think I can sneak this comment into this thread about what might be next - Is there any chance that the new Courthouse/Justice Center is an upright tower? Or are they definitely committed to a low-rise structure?
May 21, 20241 yr I replied here.... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 27, 2024Jun 27 My take from trying to keep on all of the articles. Below is my updated list of potential large new builds. I'm excluding the new Cavs facility, which is amazing looking, and anything about a new Browns stadium. Ranked in order of likelihood??: -Justice Center Courthouse Tower/ Mid Rise Campus -New Skyline-changing Hotel?? -Lumen II?? -Rocket Mortgage Tower -SWH Tower II -Something else!?!?!?! Out of contention: -New Cleveland Cliffs HQ???
June 28, 2024Jun 28 The Rose Building is a $100 million project that seems like it will happen if they win a T-MUD.
June 28, 2024Jun 28 And with the stagnation in the housing/mortgage market plus the growth of AI, I dont feel good about Rocket Mortgage either. I hear Cross Country Mortgage is already laying off some people due to AI. The only reason why Rocket Mortgage won't be laying off people here any time soon is because they accepted a city grant to grown and sustain an employment level here. They're cutting jobs elsewhere but when the term of that grant expires, look for it to happen here too unless the mortgages market makes an unexpected turn around. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
November 3, 2024Nov 3 Besides a Justice Center decision, I'm predicting nothing new in 2025, but some big project proposals will emerge by the end of 2025.
November 3, 2024Nov 3 Author 23 minutes ago, sky said: Besides a Justice Center decision, I'm predicting nothing new in 2025, but some big project proposals will emerge by the end of 2025. Are you talking just about new proposals? It looks like, Vibrator, Bridgeworks (ugh) and the new Circle Square apartment will all break ground in 2025.
November 3, 2024Nov 3 1 hour ago, Htsguy said: Are you talking just about new proposals? It looks like, Vibrator, Bridgeworks (ugh) and the new Circle Square apartment will all break ground in 2025. Didn't expect to see the word Vibrator while reading on an early Sunday morning 🫢 I had to search the KJP archives to see recent names of the key TurnDev project. Per this KJP pic it looks like there are 2 buildings with 2 proposed names (if current?) - Hanover House and Clinton House. Not as catchy though we admit, but great that each of these are slowly filling in and creating critical mass approaching the Clinic Lutheran parking lots, West 25th and the soon to be iconic Irishtown Bend park.
November 3, 2024Nov 3 1 hour ago, Htsguy said: Are you talking just about new proposals? It looks like, Vibrator, Bridgeworks (ugh) and the new Circle Square apartment will all break ground in 2025. Isn't the Erie view redevelopment supposed to begin in 2025 as well? I also predict we'll hear about the PHS project as well and if it's announced soon enough it could break in 2025.
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