A new study of Central Ohio predicts 25 percent population growth (500,000 people) in the next 25 years, while a 3 percent decline is forecast for the rest of the state. Calthorpe Associates was engaged by MORPC and other entities to look at how the region will handle the influx and the accompanying demographic shifts -- which include aging baby boomers, one-person households making up 55 percent of the total and parents-with-children households accounting for just 19 percent.

 

http://www.morpc.org/Sustainability/insight2050/resources/index

 

Columbus grew by 224K during the 2000s, which was higher than the 1990s which was in turn higher than the 1980s.  If we accept the same trends into the future, 500K in the next 36 years is going to be a very low number.  I expect something more like this:

 

2020: +225K-230K

2030: +230K-235K

2040: +235K-240K

2050: +240K-245K

 

Total 2010-2050: +930K-950K

 

There really isn't any reason to expect that the growth totals will decline as the metro grows larger and becomes a greater magnet.  Worst case, I think 800K is more reasonable.  The report expects only 125,000 per decade, much lower than current growth rates.  Why?

 

That's the main issue I have.  Other than that, I like how it lays out the different results depending on how development patterns move forward and that it clearly prefers urban infill over sprawl. 

 

 

I doubt that Columbus maintains the same level of growth for the next 50 years.  Things change and markets peak.  Hell.... if Cleveland would've maintained the same level of growth over the course of the entire 20th century as we saw in the first 20 years (+400,000), the population of our City proper would be over 2,000,000........ or larger than even NYC if we maintained the same 'rate' of growth (doubling every 20 years).  I think with the sprawl going so far out and the large lot zoning restricting further infill in most of that sprawl, you are going to start to see the growth start to plateau.  The key is not allowing the same forces which affected former boomtowns cause an eventual decline..... and certainly be very mindful not to neglect the city core or the decline will turn rapid and cause the need to essentially hit the re-set button.

A new study of Central Ohio predicts 25 percent population growth (500,000 people) in the next 25 years, while a 3 percent decline is forecast for the rest of the state. Calthorpe Associates was engaged by MORPC and other entities to look at how the region will handle the influx and the accompanying demographic shifts -- which include aging baby boomers, one-person households making up 55 percent of the total and parents-with-children households accounting for just 19 percent.

 

http://www.morpc.org/Sustainability/insight2050/resources/index

 

 

Nashville is predicted to grow by over a million people in it's metro area over this same timeframe.  Any thoughts as to why Nashville would be growing so much faster than Columbus? 

^Just guesses, but weather and less in-state competition from other large metros could be factors.  I could see Tennessee being the next North Carolina

I doubt that Columbus maintains the same level of growth for the next 50 years.  Things change and markets peak.  Hell.... if Cleveland would've maintained the same level of growth over the course of the entire 20th century as we saw in the first 20 years (+400,000), the population of our City proper would be over 2,000,000........ or larger than even NYC if we maintained the same 'rate' of growth (doubling every 20 years).  I think with the sprawl going so far out and the large lot zoning restricting further infill in most of that sprawl, you are going to start to see the growth start to plateau.  The key is not allowing the same forces which affected former boomtowns cause an eventual decline..... and certainly be very mindful not to neglect the city core or the decline will turn rapid and cause the need to essentially hit the re-set button.

 

I'm not sure you can compare a city like Cleveland to Columbus.  Cleveland declined because of the overall collapse of domestic manufacturing, among other things.  Columbus just doesn't have that kind of overreliance on a single industry.  Even if government cut back significantly from current levels, it would likely still do okay.  Plus we're talking about the metro area, not just the city.  Metros tend to grow regardless of how the city does.  There really isn't too much, if anything, to suggest that growth will slow down by the near 50% the study suggests. 

A new study of Central Ohio predicts 25 percent population growth (500,000 people) in the next 25 years, while a 3 percent decline is forecast for the rest of the state. Calthorpe Associates was engaged by MORPC and other entities to look at how the region will handle the influx and the accompanying demographic shifts -- which include aging baby boomers, one-person households making up 55 percent of the total and parents-with-children households accounting for just 19 percent.

 

http://www.morpc.org/Sustainability/insight2050/resources/index

 

 

Nashville is predicted to grow by over a million people in it's metro area over this same timeframe.  Any thoughts as to why Nashville would be growing so much faster than Columbus?

 

I think most studies just assume that what's happened already will continue to happen.  In Nashville's case, domestic migration is actually falling, which raises some doubts about its potential future growth.