We may be seeing a revival of tower city. I mean where else would this thing end up at?

My filing cabinet, along with several feet thick of studies since the 1970s that never resulted in actual construction. I collect these studies in case someone in the future wants to know the history of Ohio's inaction.

 

By the way, that's another distraction. Cleveland Union Terminal lost its railroad access because the Ohio Rail Transportation Authority refused to save the commuter train to Youngstown. ORTA was focused only on high speed rail. After the commuter train stopped running in 1977, we lost all rail access to Tower City. The entire railroad station underside of Tower City was converted to a multi-level parking deck that prevented the cost effective return of railroad service.

+ US Railcar's proposed an excessively high-level self-propelled rail car that was not in production. It was pushed by a successful businessman who was a close friend of the ODOT director during the 3C project. It wasn't the worst idea in the world but sometimes Ohio acts like it has no awareness whatsoever of any existing, off the shelf rail technologies that would reduce the amount of bugs and delays and cost overruns while introducing a new rail service like 3C. Instead Ohio's leaders like to make things harder on themselves because they doesn't know any better.

 

Not to prove your point about Ohioans getting distracted by unrealistic rail technology, but do you have more information about this? I've never heard about it.

 

Not to prove your point about Ohioans getting distracted by unrealistic rail technology, but do you have more information about this? I've never heard about it.

 

Google videos of US Railcar and Tri-rail demo in Florida.

Now I know for certain these people have no practical awareness of how to develop this system. The average time for infrastructure for a proven transportation technology to go from idea to ribbon cutting is 10 years. This doesn't have a working prototype yet. But Cleveland is innovative!

 

Great Lakes Hyperloop consortium sees Cleveland-Chicago link possible in 3 to 5 years (photos, video)

https://articles.cleveland.com/architecture/index.ssf/2018/02/goal_of_great_lakes_hyperloop.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Its funny because some of the same viscerally negative reactions I see here about hyperloop remind me of some of the things I used to see people say at Cleveland.bomb about BRT. I mean, let the doggone thing play out. Let the feasibility study be done and then go from there.

BRT had prototypes including in revenue service.  That's my biggest concern. Everybody's going crazy about this and they don't even know if the technology will work.

the feasibility study will not even look at the feasibility of the technology

Just to sum - if a hypothetical headline said:

 

"High speed rail being explored to connect Chicago and Cleveland"

 

If its Amtrak - good?

If its Hyperloop - bad?

 

Correct, because if it was an Amtrak proposal it would be sensible, by a proven operator, based on already existing technology, and about 1,000 times more likely to actually come to fruition.

 

Is that always true?

https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/19/us/amtrak-derailment-washington/index.html

 

there are other parts of the world ready to implement Hyperloop

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/billionaire-richard-branson-unveils-hyperloop-plans-for-india

No, they're not.  The technology does not exist. 

 

Is that always true?

https://www.cnn.com/2017/12/19/us/amtrak-derailment-washington/index.html

 

 

Car travel is up to 17 times more dangerous than train travel, per passenger mile. Did that keep you from driving a car today?

 

There are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of recently completed, underway, or about to begin projects for traditional steel-wheel-on-steel-rail technology carrying people. That includes many billions to improve Amtrak, including positive train control that would have prevented that Washington State derailment that killed two friends if mine who were riding the first run over that new rail line.

No, they're not.  The technology does not exist. 

That you know of.  Cutting edge technology is not typically public knowledge.

While lots have things have changed with 1s and 0s in the past 80 years nothing has changed with physics. And it won't. Physics operates on Laws whereas screen stuff has few Laws.

Not to mention that none of the trials have demonstrated that they can do anything groundbreaking.  Maglev in a tunnel, woooo!

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-infrastructure-rant-helps-hyperloop-case-2018-2

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-infrastructure-rant-helps-hyperloop-case-2018-2

 

So?  Bureaucracy driving up costs of infrastructure is an orthogonal concern to the technology used.  There's no reason high-speed rail couldn't be built more efficiently and/or a potential hyperloop couldn't end up being bogged down by government regulations and requirements.

Just because the internet managed to get away with a lot fewer regulations than TV and radio from being "new", doesn't mean that something in the physical realm that can easily kill people and results in changes to the physical landscape won't become extra regulated.

 

If meatspace was capable of advancing quickly and in leaps and bounds we definitely wouldn't be doing our own laundry by now. Meatspace changes happen in an evolutionary manner over decades and centuries.

That you know of.  Cutting edge technology is not typically public knowledge.

 

I think the point he is saying that the technology is not ready for revenue service. The reason is that there is no operational prototype for a long-distance (100+ miles) Hyperloop. A long-distance prototype is essential to learn how that tube's low-atmospheric pressure is maintained over a significant distance with the steel tube's temperature rising and falling, and thus the tube expanding and contracting (metal fatigue!). It will require vacuum sealed expansion joints and perfect tube alignments.

 

Three years ago, Elon Musk wanted a 5-mile-long Hyperloop test track, proposed to be built in Texas. But construction finished last year on the longest Hyperloop test track in the world -- a mere 0.75 miles in Hawthorne, California, which is a little longer than Virgin Hyperloop One's DevLoop. Consider:

 

For starters, the radial thermal expansion of the steel tubes under direct sunlight will result in pipeline distortions between joints. And, over a 100km pipeline, the longitudinal thermal expansion could be as much as 50m, meaning that a huge number of flexible joints would have to be in place. With so many moving joints, over such a distance, all under vacuum: it’s a maintenance nightmare in the making.

 

Then there are questions about whether the steel is strong enough to withstand normal atmospheric pressure when it’s internal pressure is so drastically reduced. Atmospheric forces acting on the outside of the structure would be around 10 tonnes per square metre, with almost nothing pushing back on the vacuum sealed inner structure. It makes sudden and catastrophic buckling a very real potential hazard. The pipeline would also have to take the vibrational and centrifugal forces of the pods – thought to weigh between 10 and 15 tonnes fully loaded – travelling at close to the speed of sound. The steel pipelines wall thickness will almost certainly need to be greater than the current test pipelines of just 20mm.

 

SOURCE: http://www.eurekamagazine.co.uk/design-engineering-features/technology/the-impossible-engineering-reality-check-facing-hyperloop/157339/

While lots have things have changed with 1s and 0s in the past 80 years nothing has changed with physics. And it won't. Physics operates on Laws whereas screen stuff has few Laws.

 

This issue comes up all the time as it relates to battery life. The reason that smartphones keep getting longer battery life each year is because the software gets better about using the battery (turning off cell/wifi/bluetooth radios when they are not needed, etc.). The actual battery technology only gets a tiny bit better each year, and won't have a major jump until scientists have a breakthrough and invent a new type of battery that can store more energy in a smaller physical space.

^KJP, it should be noted that the California High Speed Rail authority is spending A LOT of time and effort studying the ground vibrations that will be caused by its trains.  Those trains will no doubt be much heavier than a hyperloop pod (especially when loaded with hundreds of passengers instead of just 30), but they'll "only" be traveling 220mph.  No doubt that the vibrations caused by a 30-person pod traveling at 500+mph will be very significant, even if the thing is a mag-lev. 

While lots have things have changed with 1s and 0s in the past 80 years nothing has changed with physics. And it won't. Physics operates on Laws whereas screen stuff has few Laws.

 

This issue comes up all the time as it relates to battery life. The reason that smartphones keep getting longer battery life each year is because the software gets better about using the battery (turning off cell/wifi/bluetooth radios when they are not needed, etc.). The actual battery technology only gets a tiny bit better each year, and won't have a major jump until scientists have a breakthrough and invent a new type of battery that can store more energy in a smaller physical space.

 

Musk's companies are working on that too.  He wants to be not only D. D. Harriman but Daniel Shipstone as well.  One of the worst trends wrt the future is science fiction replacing bold advances with SJW yawnfests.

 

Hyperloop may not be feasible, but in essence NE Ohio is betting on someone a lot of people have made a lot of money betting on.

 

The fact is if some alien entity communicated with us and said some history changing secret was on the moon, whoever got to it first gets it, but you can't kill your people or attack other efforts, SpaceX would probably have it within a couple years, well before any government could.

The term SJW has officially jumped the shark with that comment.

Just because the internet managed to get away with a lot fewer regulations than TV and radio from being "new", doesn't mean that something in the physical realm that can easily kill people and results in changes to the physical landscape won't become extra regulated.

 

If meatspace was capable of advancing quickly and in leaps and bounds we definitely wouldn't be doing our own laundry by now. Meatspace changes happen in an evolutionary manner over decades and centuries.

 

The rules of aerodynamics haven't changed, yet the F-16 , F-117, and other "fly by wire" aircraft, once impossible, push the limits on a daily basis.

 

For that matter, some once thought the speed of sound was a hard limit for controlled aircraft.

Science fiction has never been SJW-free.  The concepts go hand in hand.  Those "bold advances" are often just storytelling devices allowing the author to deal with mundane issues through metaphor.  Star Trek is credited with inspiring personal computers and cell phones, but it was also infamous for blunt social commentary.  Warnings about an unequal future go back at least as far as HG Wells.

I don't know why we are using "hyperloop" as the generic name for the technology that Elon Musk is proposing. Shouldn't we be calling it "vactrain," which is what this technology was called before Musk re-invented it?

... well before any government could.[/color]

 

And who is funding the hyperloop feasibility studies??

... well before any government could.[/color]

 

And who is funding the hyperloop feasibility studies??

 

And whose launch pad is SpaceX using?

The U.S. Space program started from scratch in 1958 and 11 years later landed men on the moon and brought them back home safely.  Space X was founded in 2002.  They've had 16 years to do something.  So far they launched a car into space as a publicity stunt. 

 

Also, the Saturn V was *significantly* more powerful than Space X's new rocket -- that was FIFTY years ago.  Yet Musk gets away with fooling the public into thinking he built the "world's most powerful rocket".  There are still a half dozen Saturn V's sitting around -- one's at a rest stop in Alabama. 

... well before any government could.[/color]

 

And who is funding the hyperloop feasibility studies??

 

And whose launch pad is SpaceX using?

 

Not for free.

 

Government can do closed end projects like building launch pads reasonably well.  It's ongoing programs without clear goals where they stumble.

Just because the internet managed to get away with a lot fewer regulations than TV and radio from being "new", doesn't mean that something in the physical realm that can easily kill people and results in changes to the physical landscape won't become extra regulated.

 

If meatspace was capable of advancing quickly and in leaps and bounds we definitely wouldn't be doing our own laundry by now. Meatspace changes happen in an evolutionary manner over decades and centuries.

 

The rules of aerodynamics haven't changed, yet the F-16 , F-117, and other "fly by wire" aircraft, once impossible, push the limits on a daily basis.

 

For that matter, some once thought the speed of sound was a hard limit for controlled aircraft.

 

Fly-by-wire is essentially an R/C plane. Chuck Yeager broke the speed of sound 70 years ago. The Concordes got parked 15 years ago since they couldn't make money.

It's ongoing programs without clear goals where they stumble.[/color]

 

The purpose of government is to do the things that don't make money.  Police. Fire. Military. Water. Sewer. Gas. Electric.  Railroads (well, everywhere but here).  Airports/airlines (well, everywhere but here). 

 

Musk is only in it for the money.  He shrouds himself in a benevolent tunic, but the dude is just another cold-blooded capitalist. 

That's why government had to go into space, break the speed of sound and do all of the other things that don't make money. Musk doesn't know how to make money with those things either... because you can't.

starting a new space tourism market is big money... Starting a 'somehwat' revolutionary transportation system is big money... Making fully autonomous cars and fully battery powering them is big freaking money... Selling paypal was big money...

 

I don't see how you can't give this guy credit... He's putting faith in the public yet you dismiss him because he ''can't make money''.

Faith in the public is how anyone makes money. Why do you think snowboarding became so popular? Back in the 70's and 80's skiiers thought they were a nuisance.

It was basically a social inequality, yet companies started up and sold snowboards having 'faith' in the public. That's why companies like Burton and K2 are so big because they started out so early.

 

We may have come a long way, but We aren't too far in the industry. Transportation will only get better. It reflects Moore's law which is the exponential increase in speed of advanced computational systems. I sure hate rush hour but i'd love to see something to somewhat relieve the pain of sitting in bumper to bumper traffic. Once driverless cars are pretty much the standard there wont be many more of those. Hyperloop will also relieve these issues. The less cars we have on the streets at one time, the better.

Musk had a company before Paypal that made a small amount of money, and then the sale of Paypal made him and Peter Thiel very wealthy.  Nothing he has done since has made money.  Tesla is losing billions per year. 

Making money in digital is nothing like making money in things that involve the physical realm. It all comes back to revolutions in screen stuff and 1s and 0s making people think everything else is possible, too.

 

Moore's Law does not apply to the physical realm. This needs repeated often for some reason.

^Mark Cuban made $3 billion at the same time as Musk and Thiel did.  He's amazingly less irritating, despite being a bro.  Possibly the Uber-bro. 

Musk had a company before Paypal that made a small amount of money, and then the sale of Paypal made him and Peter Thiel very wealthy.  Nothing he has done since has made money.  Tesla is losing billions per year. 

 

Yet he's worth almost $21 billion.

Yet he's worth almost $21 billion.

 

That is the value of the stock he holds in companies that are losing money -- billions per year.  When he makes a grand proclamation, the value of the stock goes up, because the market is irrational.  Tesla is a massively overvalued stock.  It makes a tiny fraction of the vehicles that any of the big automakers do.  Ford F-150s are highly profitable.  Tesla Model 3's are not. 

 

 

Yet he's worth almost $21 billion.

 

That is the value of the stock he holds in companies that are losing money -- billions per year.  When he makes a grand proclamation, the value of the stock goes up, because the market is irrational.  Tesla is a massively overvalued stock.  It makes a tiny fraction of the vehicles that any of the big automakers do.  Ford F-150s are highly profitable.  Tesla Model 3's are not. 

 

The rest of your post doesn't matter.  That's the fair market value.

The rest of your post doesn't matter.  That's the fair market value.

 

Buying Tesla stock is not an investment, it is speculation.  American automakers make nearly all of their money on pickup trucks, SUVs, and large and high/end cars.  The margin per unit is high and they can manufacture these cars in the United States.  Midsize and compact "American" cars are low margin and so typically are assembled in Mexico or elsewhere. 

 

Tesla can't grow into a profitable business without manufacturing pickup trucks and other expensive cars.  The choice to do the Model 3 and build it in California will likely prove fatal. 

 

I don't think Tesla builds any loss leaders like the Chevy Cruze.  Everything they make is high-end and high-profit.  They don't even really have a competitor in their market segment.  If they're losing money it's not for lack of trucks.

American automakers make nearly all of their money on pickup trucks, SUVs, and large and high/end cars.  The margin per unit is high and they can manufacture these cars in the United States.  Midsize and compact "American" cars are low margin and so typically are assembled in Mexico or elsewhere. 

 

If gas prices shot up to $9-10/gallon, they might have to rethink their business model.

Tesla can't grow into a profitable business without manufacturing pickup trucks and other expensive cars.  The choice to do the Model 3 and build it in California will likely prove fatal. 

 

Have you seen the prices on Model S and X's?

 

 

Have you seen the prices on Model S and X's?

 

Have you looked at Tesla's quarterly statements?  They're losing hundreds of millions of dollars every three months.  Absolutely burning through investor cash.  Musk has to keep twirling that rally towel so that people keep blindly throwing cash at his money pit. 

 

Behold, the Falcon Heavy, the world's most powerful rocket which would look puny next to the Saturn V.

 

Think about it -- nascent MTV used the moon launch and landing footage because it was free and because the generic U.S. astronaut was not copyrighted.  We taxpayers were robbed!

Tesla is building the high end Model 3's first because they make the most profit on those. The base model configuration won't be available for several more months, and some analysts believe they will lose money on every base model they sell.

American automakers make nearly all of their money on pickup trucks, SUVs, and large and high/end cars.  The margin per unit is high and they can manufacture these cars in the United States.  Midsize and compact "American" cars are low margin and so typically are assembled in Mexico or elsewhere. 

 

If gas prices shot up to $9-10/gallon, they might have to rethink their business model.

 

 

 

If gas prices do hit that level Chevrolet and Ford can be trusted much more to scale quickly enough to respond to demand than a company that is still machining everything from solid hunks of metal as Tesla is now.

Musk had a company before Paypal that made a small amount of money, and then the sale of Paypal made him and Peter Thiel very wealthy.  Nothing he has done since has made money.  Tesla is losing billions per year. 

 

Ever see Amazon's early P&Ls? 

 

Where the 1s and 0s meet 3DL/meatspace is where the money is made.

The U.S. Space program started from scratch in 1958 and 11 years later landed men on the moon and brought them back home safely.  Space X was founded in 2002.  They've had 16 years to do something.  So far they launched a car into space as a publicity stunt. 

 

They launched their first successful satellite in 1958. 

 

The program itself started with Operation Paperclip, during the late 1940s.  Those guys, of course, actually put a rocket into space in 1944.

 

 

The U.S. Space program started from scratch in 1958 and 11 years later landed men on the moon and brought them back home safely.  Space X was founded in 2002.  They've had 16 years to do something.  So far they launched a car into space as a publicity stunt. 

 

They launched their first successful satellite in 1958. 

 

The program itself started with Operation Paperclip, during the late 1940s.  Those guys, of course, actually put a rocket into space in 1944.

 

 

 

NASA started in 1958 or thereabouts.  They had to invent...computers. 

 

They put an electric car on the moon.  Musk merely launched one aimlessly. 

 

 

 

How Far-Fetched Is This Columbus Hyperloop, Anyway?

http://radio.wosu.org/post/how-far-fetched-columbus-hyperloop-anyway#stream/0