Just to add to the posts starting here in the Cleveland population thread....

https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,5363.msg930093.html#msg930093

 

Some anecdotal info, but I'm noticing a lot more $200,000+ houses selling in Cleveland too. I check property transactions each month to look for any anomalies and that's one that has stuck out at me in recent months. I used to see the usual multi-million-dollar sales of downtown buildings and industrial properties, then it would drop off to $100,000-$150,000 houses and lower. Now there's up to a page (with 100 transactions per page) of houses selling for $200,000+ per month.

^Back in early-mid 1990s, I remember pouring over the house sales listed in real estate section of the PD and counting on one hand the number breaking $100K. Amazing how most of the city has totally crumbled since then, but also how many more sales there are on the high end in the handful of neighborhoods doing really well.

Just to add to the posts starting here in the Cleveland population thread....

https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,5363.msg930093.html#msg930093

 

Some anecdotal info, but I'm noticing a lot more $200,000+ houses selling in Cleveland too. I check property transactions each month to look for any anomalies and that's one that has stuck out at me in recent months. I used to see the usual multi-million-dollar sales of downtown buildings and industrial properties, then it would drop off to $100,000-$150,000 houses and lower. Now there's up to a page (with 100 transactions per page) of houses selling for $200,000+ per month.

 

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

 

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

 

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.

It's a classic move by the county - I actually challenged and won a hearing about the value increase back in 2010.  I assume most don't think to challenge and pay the increase.  Bam!  Money in the pocket.

 

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

 

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.

 

Don't think it affects the amount of taxes the schools collect by very much, if it at all, due to HB 920: https://fiscalofficer.cuyahogacounty.us/en-us/house-bill-920.aspx

 

The country tax revaluations going on right now are causing quite a stir....

 

I'm sure the school districts are loving it. And hopefully saving it for a rainy day.

 

Don't think it affects the amount of taxes the schools collect by very much, if it at all, due to HB 920: https://fiscalofficer.cuyahogacounty.us/en-us/house-bill-920.aspx

 

It does affect their charter/inside millage (up to 10 mills) however, as well as any new or replacement levies they get passed.

^ Taking all of that into account, school districts will be looking at an average increase of 8%

^That's pretty big. Do school districts have charter millage like municipalities or is that average driven by all the levies passed since 2013, which might not be subject to HB 920 (per the link I posted above)?

No it's by statute. Up to 10 mills is charter millage and thus not subject to HB920. Some school districts have 40, 50, 60 mills on the books, but the older millage is so old and has been so eroded by  HB920, that it's effective millage is nearly worthless.  But what some school districts will do is to replace those old levies with new ones and the language that appears on the ballot makes it sound like the replacement is a renewal. But it gets replaced at the originally stated millage and therefore is able to pull in the same revenue as a new levy.

2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

 

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.

http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html

2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

 

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.

http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html

 

Does "on the market" mean from when it was listed to when an offer was accepted, or from when it was listed till closing?

"On the market" from when it was listed until closing date. Offers fall though all the time and it is still for sale until it is closed.

"On the market" from when it was listed until closing date. Offers fall though all the time and it is still for sale until it is closed.

 

but aren't houses not technically on the market when there is an accepted offer?

Yes and no. You can have it "on the market" with an accepted offer to get backup offers, continue generating interest, etc. Obviously the definition of what "on the market" means is modified since they can't accept another offer once they already have, but in a general sense I think it's fair to say that it's "on the market" up until the moment the closing is finished.

^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

2 months? Where? I tried to get a showing of a Lakewood house on Monday that had been on the market for two days. It had already sold.

 

July home sales up 8.2% across Northeast Ohio. Prices still climbing. Average days on market down to roughly 2 months, based on MLS data.

http://realestate.cleveland.com/realestate-news/2018/08/july_home_sales_up_82_percent.html

 

Even in South Euclid, which people may not think of as being a "hot market" (especially compared to Lakewood) I've seen houses under contract the next day after being listed. Many people have been scrambling to complete their repairs at the last minute, because they end up finding a buyer quicker than they expected. We all know its much better to sell the house "violation free/POS compliant". I would guess that the number of days on the market is much higher in the collar counties, and especially in the rural counties though.

^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

 

You can't. You can, however, accept "backup offers" which aren't actually binding, but in hot markets they're fairly common. People will put in an offer on a place that already has an accepted offer so that if that accepted offer falls through they can already have an offer in on the property.

^ I was under the impression that you can't accept other offers when you are under contract.

 

You can't. You can, however, accept "backup offers" which aren't actually binding, but in hot markets they're fairly common. People will put in an offer on a place that already has an accepted offer so that if that accepted offer falls through they can already have an offer in on the property.

 

My friend put in a backup offer on a 4-unit in Lakewood. He went +15k over the asking price and all cash. I wouldn't be surprised if the seller sabotaged his own electrical panel to get out of the contract. But my friends offer did in fact end up getting accepted.

^"Oh my, how did all this WATER get in here? There must be an unseen leak somewhere!"

August 14, 2018 2:41 pm

A lack of building following the economic downturn has left America with low inventory and an aging supply of houses

SCOTT SUTTELL

 

America's housing stock is aging. And in Cleveland, it's older than almost anywhere else in the country.

 

MarketWatch reports that the median age of owner-occupied homes as of the most recent Census survey, in 2016, is 37. That's up sharply from 31 in 2005, according to an analysis from the National Association of Home Builders.

 

From the story:

 

The home builder industry group is interested in the issue because it's the lack of construction of new homes over the decade since the bubble burst that's accelerating the overall aging of the housing market.

 

MORE:

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20180814/blogs03/171766/lack-building-following-economic-downturn-has-left-america-low

 

 

Actually, here's the MarketWatch story which doesn't require a password to view.....

 

Here’s why America’s houses are getting older

It’s just as hard to reverse the aging process in the housing market as it is for people

Published: Aug 14, 2018 8:23 a.m. ET

By ANDREA RIQUIER

 

A few more gray hairs, a creaky back... do you ever catch yourself feeling, well, old? It’s not just you: America’s housing stock is also aging.

 

The median age of owner-occupied homes as of the most recent Census survey, in 2016, is 37. That’s up sharply from 31 in 2005, according to an analysis from the National Association of Home Builders.

 

(Median refers to the midpoint of all the ages throughout the housing market. That is, half of all homes now standing were built before 1980, and half were built after. Unfortunately, they’ll never agree on which set of Star Wars films is best.)

 

The home builder industry group is interested in the issue because it’s the lack of construction of new homes over the decade since the bubble burst that’s accelerating the overall aging of the housing market.

 

MORE:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-americas-houses-are-getting-older-2018-08-14

 

Not sure if this belongs here but an interesting article.  I was really surprised to see that the Standard Building is only about half leased....but others like Worthington Yards are 100% and Halle is already 70%.

 

Downtown apartment rentals gain momentum

 

http://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/downtown-apartment-rentals-gain-momentum

 

 

Amazing that the market dipped to a 6.6 percent vacancy rate last January and some panicked. So an occupancy rate of 93.4 percent causes concern? I guess the 5 percent or less vacancy had become the new paradigm in the 2010s. Glad to see it rebounded to 96.4 percent this summer so that everyone can relax. :) Except K&D which seems to think that storm clouds are brewing and/or it had overextended itself with 55 Public Square.

 

But Millennia's interest in making some of the housing in its 925 Euclid building could offer a turning point for downtown. If they follow through with it and the condos sell quickly, watch a new-construction building get announced, such as Joel Scheer's proposed 20-story skinny tower next to the former Sammy's.

Not sure if this belongs here but an interesting article.  I was really surprised to see that the Standard Building is only about half leased....but others like Worthington Yards are 100% and Halle is already 70%.

 

Downtown apartment rentals gain momentum

 

http://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/downtown-apartment-rentals-gain-momentum

 

 

 

Rentals are absolutely part of the housing market and this was an appropriate and useful article here.

I was really surprised to see that the Standard Building is only about half leased....but others like Worthington Yards are 100% and Halle is already 70%.

 

http://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/downtown-apartment-rentals-gain-momentum

 

Weston may have underestimated the demand for bigger apartments in the Standard Building.  IIRC, another Crain's article several months ago reported that the building is about 50-50 1br vs 2br units and that the 2br units were renting MUCH better than the 1br.

Amazing that the market dipped to a 6.6 percent vacancy rate last January and some panicked. So an occupancy rate of 93.4 percent causes concern?

 

A blurb from DCA last week was even more cautionary.  They reported a 91.5% occupancy rate.  It's good to see Bullard putting that to rest; I wonder where the usually upbeat DCA got their numbers. Could it be the difference between signed rental agreements vs actual move-ins?

 

http://www.downtowncleveland.com/news/august-2018/downtown-cleveland-continues-momentum-towards-a-24

I was really surprised to see that the Standard Building is only about half leased....but others like Worthington Yards are 100% and Halle is already 70%.

 

http://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/downtown-apartment-rentals-gain-momentum

 

Weston may have underestimated the demand for bigger apartments in the Standard Building.  IIRC, another Crain's article several months ago reported that the building is about 50-50 1br vs 2br units and that the 2br units were renting MUCH better than the 1br.

 

I am also wondering if maybe we have reached a point downtown where your project better be loaded with amenities and/or be a super cool space in order to compete.

 

The Standard Building is nicely done but not incredibly unique, whereas both Worthington and the Halle Building are pretty neat spaces, less run of the mill.

A blurb from DCA last week was even more cautionary.  They reported a 91.5% occupancy rate.  It's good to see Bullard putting that to rest; I wonder where the usually upbeat DCA got their numbers. Could it be the difference between signed rental agreements vs actual move-ins?

 

http://www.downtowncleveland.com/news/august-2018/downtown-cleveland-continues-momentum-towards-a-24

 

The January 93.4 percent occupancy rate was for the region, according to Crain's. The DCA's 91.5 percent occupancy was for downtown only.

I was really surprised to see that the Standard Building is only about half leased....but others like Worthington Yards are 100% and Halle is already 70%.

 

http://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/downtown-apartment-rentals-gain-momentum

 

Weston may have underestimated the demand for bigger apartments in the Standard Building.  IIRC, another Crain's article several months ago reported that the building is about 50-50 1br vs 2br units and that the 2br units were renting MUCH better than the 1br.

 

I am also wondering if maybe we have reached a point downtown where your project better be loaded with amenities and/or be a super cool space in order to compete.

 

The Standard Building is nicely done but not incredibly unique, whereas both Worthington and the Halle Building are pretty neat spaces, less run of the mill.

 

I honestly think it comes down to pricing.  Both the Worthington and Halle Building have pricing hovering around $1.50/sqft whereas the Standard Building has pricing hovering around $2/sqft.

Just so it is perfectly clear, do NOT ever share tips on how to get past paywalls, etc. People can figure that out on their own, but in no way, shape or form do the Admins endorse this.

 

For those who don't know or remember, several years ago, UrbanOhio.com was served a 'cease and desist' by the eight largest newspapers in Ohio because people were copying and pasting entire articles, and we were *this* close to being shut down. It was yours truly who negotiated on the forum's behalf for time to lock non-compliant threads and edit them to be compliant with their wishes. After hundreds of hours of volunteer time from selected forumers, we got all the threads in order and the 'okay' from the newspaper groups.

Just two anecdotal data points here, but for what they're worth:

 

(1) Within the last two months, my credit union has increased its mortgage rates by around 0.5 percentage points across the board.  The rate on their 10-year mortgages was 3.00% when my wife and I refinanced ours about a year and a half ago.  Those rates remained basically unchanged at least as of May of this year, when we started looking at houses because we were thinking about moving to get our kids into a better school system.  Since sale prices tend to move inversely to interest rates, and my credit union doesn't adjust rates in real time (quarterly at most), the era of ultra-cheap mortgages may be behind us, which should (if the laws of economics actually hold) cool off the white-hot housing market a bit.

 

(2) A number of properties that we have been following on Zillow (a) have remained active on Zillow since close to the start of the summer, contra the prior stories of things getting snapped off the market in days or less, and (b) have had multiple price reductions, in several cases amounting to 20% or more of initial asking price.  (Zillow tracks price history so we can see the original price listing as well as the dates and amounts of various reductions.)

Average time on market in my zip has dropped to 16 days. One neighbor who only owned his house for 6 months, painted everything inside that had the original wood finishes white, then listed it for 30 percent more has already been sitting on it for 3 months. Hey dude, you didn't raise the value of the house with your stupid white and gray paint... you lowered it.

It is amazing to watch the way in which the market responds quickly to homes that are professionally renovated inside and out.  Meanwhile, homes with an old kitchen and a big crack in the front driveway sit and sit and sit. 

My parents' house sat and sat while they grudgingly replaced dark colors and busy patterns with white paint.  At first people weren't getting past the foyer, they would catch one glimpse of wallpaper and run off.  As soon as there was enough white paint, it sold. 

It's amazing to think how popular wall paper and those wall paper trims used to be.  My grandparents had this pretty cool 3-D textured monochrome wallpaper of cattails (like those things on the edge of a pond) from the 1960s.  When they moved to a condo in the late 80s, amazingly some wallpaper store still had a roll of the stuff sitting around and they had it installed in the dining room, just like how it had been in their house, with the same dining room table, obviously. 

One bedroom of our house when I was a kid had peacock wallpaper.

People want a perfect house today. They do not want to be bothered with renovations, even painting a house. There is a lot more kicking of the tires going on before some of the newer first time home buyers get realistic as to what they can get in the market.

People want a perfect house today. They do not want to be bothered with renovations, even painting a house. There is a lot more kicking of the tires going on before some of the newer first time home buyers get realistic as to what they can get in the market.

 

Many people view outdated decor as being a fixer upper.  Having a 1980s kitchen is not a fixer upper in my book.  If things work properly and safety, the house is move in ready. You can always update down the road.  That's how you find some good housing deals. 

 

Years ago when my grandmother died we sold her house complete with 1970s kitchen. The house was great mechanically, newer furnace, central air, driveway, roof.  It was priced to see too.  So many people couldn't look past the kitchen except one young couple who recognized the value of a fully functioning home with updates that mattered.  They got a good deal and we got the house sold without having to be bogged down with a kitchen remodel.

People want a perfect house today. They do not want to be bothered with renovations, even painting a house. There is a lot more kicking of the tires going on before some of the newer first time home buyers get realistic as to what they can get in the market.

 

I remember selling our circa-1960 house in the 80s.  We didn't do a damn thing to it, my dad sold it by owner, and it sold the first day it was advertised in the paper.  Everything in that house was original from the 60s, except for the 70s renovation of the basement, which had fake wood paneling, a wet bar with pads, and green shag carpet.  They even wrapped the beam pole with that shag carpet.  I broke a glass table on that shag carpet and there are likely still shards of glass in it, if it hasn't been ripped up. 

Nobody noticed that kind of stuff back then. It was normal. So what if it didn't have the pink carpet and white couches that got popular in the '80s? People didn't turn around and walk out; they bought the place and didn't bother remodeling it until 1996 or later. Since 2000 though, a bunch of uninteresting people with happy hands have probably painted it 5 times.

Nobody noticed that kind of stuff back then. It was normal. So what if it didn't have the pink carpet and white couches that got popular in the '80s? People didn't turn around and walk out; they bought the place and didn't bother remodeling it until 1996 or later. Since 2000 though, a bunch of uninteresting people with happy hands have probably painted it 5 times.

 

People watch too much HGTV now. They want to follow every trend.

People watch too much HGTV now. They want to follow every trend.

 

I have to admit being startled when I started watching those shows around 2005 and seeing them renovate all of the crap small houses in North Carolina and Tennessee that nobody cared about until HGTV came along.  They changed tastes not just in renovations but the very neighborhoods that people found appealing. 

 

(2) A number of properties that we have been following on Zillow (a) have remained active on Zillow since close to the start of the summer, contra the prior stories of things getting snapped off the market in days or less, and (b) have had multiple price reductions, in several cases amounting to 20% or more of initial asking price.  (Zillow tracks price history so we can see the original price listing as well as the dates and amounts of various reductions.)

 

Zillow is definitely not a great site to watch for which properties are currently available, or how long they have been available. Case in point: When I bought my condo in April of this year, it still showed as "available" while we were under contract for a few weeks, and then for another two months after I closed on it and moved in. Realtor.com is a much more reliable site for this information, as they update directly from MLS. I use Realtor.com professionally (since I can't access MLS), and have found it to be incredibly reliable for current property statuses.

Redfin is the site I use.  Much more accurate and up to date, though accessing on mobile isn't great - they do an have an app though.

Dave Ramsey profiles very young Iowa couple who paid off their $52,000 house:

 

I can just see the west coast antifa warriors seething with anger.  They want to believe that their local housing crisis is a national issue, but it isn't. 

People want a perfect house today. They do not want to be bothered with renovations, even painting a house. There is a lot more kicking of the tires going on before some of the newer first time home buyers get realistic as to what they can get in the market.

 

It goes a step further than just not wanting to paint - people just don't have imaginations. When we sold my wife's house earlier this year, we moved everything out and consolidated at my house so that it'd be easier for us to slap a coat of paint on everything and replace the kitchen floor tile. It sat for a couple months even though it had almost daily showings the entire time. We took it off the market, had it staged with furniture for about $1000, and relisted it at the same price. It got multiple offers and sold in 3 days.

Dave Ramsey profiles very young Iowa couple who paid off their $52,000 house:

 

I can just see the west coast antifa warriors seething with anger.  They want to believe that their local housing crisis is a national issue, but it isn't. 

 

 

It is a national crisis that too much of the nation's money is getting Hoovered up by the Pacific Northwest and San Francisco since people are giving all of their money to the internet rather than spending it in their communities. The Seattle housing crisis paired with nearly valueless houses in Appalachia and smaller Midwestern towns is merely a symptom.

Yeah I have debated idiots on the West Coast who really think that all housing always goes up in value and there is no way to not make money as a landlord.  Just ask the owners of all of the vacant buildings and lots all over the middle of the country. 

 

You repeatedly see online that people who grew up in blue blood areas and went to top schools honestly do not understand how things actually work.  They are certain that whatever pops into their mind is correct because of their pedigree, but they're wrong and frankly pretty easy to trick. 

^ I was out skiing a couple years ago and in the lounge of the lodge we were staying in, there was a group of Stanford MBA's that were having a reunion. They flew in that Friday afternoon for their annual class reunion from all parts of the country, mostly east or west coast. I remember striking up a conversation with a guy who was exciting about his new health care startup that was going to change the entire paradigm about healthcare billing. He was telling me about it and how individual patients would be able have control over their bills. He had spent 2 years working on this and thought it was a revolutionary idea except the one problem was that he never actually understood his customer and that for his company to work he would have to convince not only hospitals, but insurance providers and government, that the way they have been doing business for the last 70 years is completely wrong and they need to change to his revolutionary model. 

 

This is not a way I would choose to spend or waste 2 years of my life, with something that has zero chance of working.

 

There are a lot of wide eyed MBA's from prestigious schools that really have no clue of the world, or even the business which they are trying to compete with.

My uncle has an MBA from Xavier and he told me that the single most important thing he learned was statistically how many businesses fail soon after posting their biggest year because they recklessly expand away from their core business, often withe debt.  His company grew slowly because it never used debt to expand or diluted ownership by taking on investors.  Now the place is bulletproof and printing money. 

 

Meanwhile, my brother who is in the MBA program at UCLA is in love with "good" debt.  He gets upset whenever I tell him I'm probably going to pay off my house early.  No doubt the high-risk tech industry business models are difficult to ignore in California.