Yvette's hasn't ran the best campaign ever, but I think a lot people made up their mind a long time ago. Her campaign is at least better run than Qualls was. If Yvette can get the liberal whites and African Americans to turn out more than Cranley's republicans and west side voters then she wins. Her crushing him the primary makes me feel good about it. There's still a few days left but Yvette knocked on my door Sunday in Pleasant Ridge, I haven't had a visit from Cranley or a Cranley volunteer yet.

Gut feeling from what I've been seeing is that liberal white support is a touch weaker but African American support is MUCH stronger.

It's now become a whodunit:

 

PX: Who's behind mystery mailers attacking Mayor John Cranley?

 

Whoever's behind the anonymous and likely illegal fliers that surfaced this week smearing Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley, be warned: The Ohio Democratic Party is hellbent on finding you.

 

The party plans to file a "John Doe" complaint Friday with the Ohio Elections Commission regarding three fliers that did not list a disclaimer saying who paid for them, a violation of state elections law.

 

The fliers throw gas on an already nasty mayoral race between Democrats Cranley and Yvette Simpson. The fliers do not mention Simpson, who is African-American. Simpson's campaign said it had nothing to do with the fliers, nor does it know who put them out but did not disavow the message...

 

...The fliers all have a color red-and-white color scheme and template similar to the one the Black Agenda used to announce its slate of endorsed candidates in the mayoral and city council races. The group is led by former Mayor Dwight Tillery, who has turned on Cranley since supporting him in 2013.

 

Black Agenda endorsed Cranley's challenger, Yvette Simpson.

I'm seeing responces on reddit and its ugly people are getting really turned off by Simpson being too extreme...  >:(

 

Even though she didn't even do these flyers!  They could have even been posted by the opposition just to get people away from her

I'm sure the folks who made the flyers were very fine people.

This is the source of the fliers: http://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/simpson-campaign-denies-creating-fliers-accusing-cranley-of-racism-mismanagement

"Pierce Communications does advertising work for Republicans across the state. Locally, it has worked on outgoing City Councilman Charlie Winburn's campaign. He paid Pierce more than $67,000 in 2013 for ad work on his council re-election campaign, city records show."

So it was Pierce in the Billiard Room with the lead pipe

^^ The advertising company may have ordered the flyers but they aren't the ultimate source, someone paid them to run these ads. I don't see what Winburn's motive would be here - whatever beef he has with Cranley, he has far more political disagreements with Simpson, why would he want to help her to increase black voter turnout? I think the same color scheme and template as "Black Agenda" is a better lead to follow up on. Though, for some reason I don't think we'll find out who paid for these until after Tuesday.

The election is close to my understanding and Yvette needs both the AA and white urbanists/progressives to support her.  This is designed to weaken the latter as IMO from my general understanding (though its hardly scientific) most of the AA community is with Yvette right now.

 

 

Much of the latter group is already a bit weary of her due to her taking stances to the left of where most of Cincinnati stands (even the progressives), and this might have been the final straw for a few people.  That's at least the reaction I'm seeing on reddit...

I noticed that reaction on Reddit too and it's definitely worrisome, but my unscientific observations of where most Cincinnati Reddit users live seems to be places like Westwood and Price Hill, and I really don't think many of them were going to vote Yvette anyway.

There are quite a few people who live in OTR and Northside too.  The most worrisome aspect is people who say "I was for Yvette... but..." and even a fair number of people who say they are for her now say they have reservations.  The f*hipster account stated he was in Northside.

Although I'm strongly behind Yvette Simpson in her attempt to unseat one of Cincinnati's worst mayors ever, I'm also very afraid for her.  Children's Hospital was her Waterloo.

I don't believe that these people exist in large numbers.  Seems like Cranley has people trolling reddit (I have never even looked at Cincinnati's reddit section).  Any online sample is a useless indication as to who is actually going to vote and for whom.

 

FWIW, I don't personally know a single black person who is going to vote for Cranley.  The city is 45% black.  If 80% of black Cincinnatians vote for Simpson, there is no way that 80% of white Cincinnatians are voting for Cranley, assuming each group shows up in equal numbers.  Demographics alone don't favor the Cran-man. 

For what it's worth, I was canvassing yesterday for Yvette in Northside. All the people we met were white, unlike last time when we were in Bond Hill, and all said they were supporting Yvette. I don't know what metrics they were using to determine who we should talk to (maybe they were previously already identified as Yvette supporters), but I came away feeling pretty positive. Still think it will be close though. Turnout, as always, is key.

I think that Simpson will be a 1-term mayor if she is elected.  Both Sittenfeld and Smitherman will be intentionally frustrating her from inside city hall to position themselves for 2021, plus we will see the dramatic return of COAST and their frivolous lawsuits and ballot issues. 

 

So I don't think that Simpson is going to be able to get much done if she is elected.  But getting Cranley out of there and putting a scar that can't be ignored on his record might help put his so-far ridiculous political career on ice. 

 

 

 

 

I seem to recall Mrs. Cranley calling up Dan Wright to complain about a hot dog he named for the mayor. And now this: Dena Cranley: Shedding light on my husband's true character

 

 

Facebook user Marc Raab's comment:

"When you have to write an op-ed to tell everyone your husband is not a prick....he is probably a prick. When you have your mom send out mailers on your behalf saying how sweet her son is.....he is probably not so sweet."

Oh boy.  Cranley acquaintances coming out of the woodwork to vouch for how "nice" John Cranley is.  It's pretty desperate when you call on all of these character witnesses 15+ years into public life. 

 

These desperate moves by Cranley hint that his internal polling is bad. 

Rumor has it that the polling has it within the margin of error. It's been said a thousand times already, but it's all about who shows up to vote. Tell your friends.

 

 

FWIW, I don't personally know a single black person who is going to vote for Cranley.  The city is 45% black.  If 80% of black Cincinnatians vote for Simpson, there is no way that 80% of white Cincinnatians are voting for Cranley, assuming each group shows up in equal numbers.  Demographics alone don't favor the Cran-man. 

 

Cranley had much more support from black voters last time. If they aren't with him them he's probably doomed. Plus, the white West Siders that were hell bent on stopping the streetcar don't have that motivating them this time.

^ yeah, I seem to remember Qualls had a very hard time courting black voters last election. There seemed to be some odd alliances in that election. I predict these election results will look similar to the Mallory elections.

I noticed that reaction on Reddit too and it's definitely worrisome, but my unscientific observations of where most Cincinnati Reddit users live seems to be places like Westwood and Price Hill, and I really don't think many of them were going to vote Yvette anyway.

 

City subreddits on Reddit are notoriously right-wing/reactionary, like comments on newspaper sites. And Reddit as a whole is trending alt-right. I wouldn't worry too much about what Reddit says.

^ I was always told that Reddit was a left wing hangout. That is amusing. I have never been on Reddit so I personally don't know, but it is quite interesting depending on who you speak to.

^I’d say it’s generally libertarian with a somewhat socially-liberal bent more than straight-up liberal. But it’s a huge website so you get a lot of different opinions depending on what subreddit you’re reading.

 

 

ANYWAY... Today’s the day! Friendly reminder to everyone to go out and vote!

The median age of the electorate will probably be double the median age of reddit users.

The median age of the electorate will probably be double the median age of reddit users.

 

Lots of Ken Bones:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ken-bones-disturbing-reddit-history-shows-hes-not-nearly-as-adorable-as-we-thought

^I’d say it’s generally libertarian with a somewhat socially-liberal bent more than straight-up liberal. But it’s a huge website so you get a lot of different opinions depending on what subreddit you’re reading.

 

Yeah I didn't mean to characterize it as a right-wing website, as a whole I agree with your characterization. The city subreddits just always were a lot like, the same type of discussions you'd find on city-data or the cleveland.com or cincinnati.com comments.

 

And the alt-right is growing on the website especially after the whole trump thing. A lot of nerdy young STEM types on reddit who unfortunately can be drawn in to that whole worldview. Then again a lot of the altrighters on there are actually the famous russian trolls.

^I’d say it’s generally libertarian with a somewhat socially-liberal bent more than straight-up liberal. But it’s a huge website so you get a lot of different opinions depending on what subreddit you’re reading.

 

Yeah I didn't mean to characterize it as a right-wing website, as a whole I agree with your characterization. The city subreddits just always were a lot like, the same type of discussions you'd find on city-data or the cleveland.com or cincinnati.com comments.

 

And the alt-right is growing on the website especially after the whole trump thing. A lot of nerdy young STEM types on reddit who unfortunately can be drawn in to that whole worldview.

 

^Yeah, it's easy for those kind of guys get sucked right in since they think about technical details all the time rather than thinking about people.

This is interesting:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/11/02/px-see-why-cincinnati-election-turnout-expected-up/826911001/

 

 

Btw, vote no on anything that POS from LA brings onto the ballot, he abuses his non-profit to support really shady (also anti urban things).

^I’d say it’s generally libertarian with a somewhat socially-liberal bent more than straight-up liberal. But it’s a huge website so you get a lot of different opinions depending on what subreddit you’re reading.

 

Yeah I didn't mean to characterize it as a right-wing website, as a whole I agree with your characterization. The city subreddits just always were a lot like, the same type of discussions you'd find on city-data or the cleveland.com or cincinnati.com comments.

 

And the alt-right is growing on the website especially after the whole trump thing. A lot of nerdy young STEM types on reddit who unfortunately can be drawn in to that whole worldview.

 

^Yeah, it's easy for those kind of guys get sucked right in since they think about technical details all the time rather than thinking about people.

 

And for those guys it also has to do with trouble with dating and relating to women. The alt right preys on that and convinces guys that feminism and liberals and cultural shifts are the reason they have a hard time getting dates. That can be the gateway into it.

^Yeah, there weren't too many (any?) girls carrying tikki torches around Charlottesville, from what I saw. 

Everyone should follow Timmy Broderick, who is helping the Business Courier with their election coverage, on Twitter. He has been going around to polling places and talking to voters.

 

Interestingly, he talked to one voter who had voted for Cranley in the primary, but switched to support Simpson after the Children's Hospital issue. The voter said he knew someone who lost their house due to the Children's expansion. It's just interesting to hear, because even with the "Simpson shakedown" narrative that Cranley and the local media have been pushing, there is another side to that coin.

That's the side I'd always respond to people with... but it kind of comes from my own experiences living in that part of town.

Does anyone know of another source/link with good voter turnout news or data, in addition to the Twitter account for Timmy Broderick that taestell provided???  I thought Chris Wetterich would have more informative tweets than he has so far...

Someone retweeted a Jason Williams tweet saying that voter turnout is even lower than 2013 so far...

Voter apathy drives me up the wall, especially at the local level where your vote arguably has more clout and can change things that are directly affecting your day-to-day life.

 

 

If people don't vote, can we at least restrict their ability to complain about their municipality on news sites and social media?

 

The highest turnout has been in several Hyde Park precincts according to Jason Williams' tweet, which is good news for Cranley:

 

 

https://twitter.com/jwilliamscincy

 

 

Still, the absentee tally should be informative since I've heard it's often indicative of the final results. 

Early voting totals:

 

Cranley - 56.22%

Simpson - 43.78%

It was briefly 59/41, but now the margin has tightened:

 

John Cranley

 

11,449

55%

 

Yvette Simpson

 

9,236

45%

Cranely is simply dominating right now, wow.

 

Sad, Simpson dropped the ball real bad.

Everyone should follow Timmy Broderick, who is helping the Business Courier with their election coverage, on Twitter. He has been going around to polling places and talking to voters.

 

Interestingly, he talked to one voter who had voted for Cranley in the primary, but switched to support Simpson after the Children's Hospital issue. The voter said he knew someone who lost their house due to the Children's expansion. It's just interesting to hear, because even with the "Simpson shakedown" narrative that Cranley and the local media have been pushing, there is another side to that coin.

 

Didn't Children's pay several times the market value for most of those properties? Can you really say you "lost" your house if you sold it for 5X what it's worth? If he's referring to renters, well that's a whole other discussion but not exactly a position most people empathize with.

Simpson has conceded... Cranley wins re-election in a surprising landslide of ~55% of the vote.  :o

Eh, I don't think it was surprising.

The Cran Man did it. Reading some of the comments from the biz courier, it really did appear the Children's issue hurt her significantly.

Everyone should follow Timmy Broderick, who is helping the Business Courier with their election coverage, on Twitter. He has been going around to polling places and talking to voters.

 

Interestingly, he talked to one voter who had voted for Cranley in the primary, but switched to support Simpson after the Children's Hospital issue. The voter said he knew someone who lost their house due to the Children's expansion. It's just interesting to hear, because even with the "Simpson shakedown" narrative that Cranley and the local media have been pushing, there is another side to that coin.

 

Didn't Children's pay several times the market value for most of those properties? Can you really say you "lost" your house if you sold it for 5X what it's worth? If he's referring to renters, well that's a whole other discussion but not exactly a position most people empathize with.

 

Right, because who cares about renters being kicked out of their homes. They're not even people.

Farewell guys.  I'm done with following Cincinnati, its too exhausting.  Let you guys fester in your own garbage.

Lol you’re awfully dramatic.

What this goes to show, as jmecklenborg[/member] has said many times, is that most voters simply do not show up unless there is a major statewide or national issue on the ballot. Most voters simply do not take the time to learn about local issues and candidates. When SB5 was on the ballot, liberals showed up and swept in a wave of liberal council members. There was nothing to bring people out in 2013 or 2017, so the only people who showed up were the same handful of good ol' Cincinnatians who show up at every election anyway.

Absolutely

Farewell guys.  I'm done with following Cincinnati, its too exhausting.  Let you guys fester in your own garbage.

 

We're totally back to the chaos of the Luken years. 

 

We re-elected someone who was given everything he has by his inheritance.  The #1 council candidate has never had a full-time job.  All of the working-class people in this city have been fooled by the aristocracy, once again. 

Children's clearly hurt Yvette, but that's not the whole story. Not with such a large loss. We need change the election cycle to fall on presidential years.