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2018 Gubernatorial Election

ColDayMan
in Ohio Politics

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So, is he saying he had a relationship with Senator Bob Taft (Senior)? His first true love!  ;D

  • 3 weeks later...
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  • freefourur
    freefourur

    don't worry about polls.  Just vote.

  • DEPACincy
    DEPACincy

    As of 10:15am on Monday, November 5th, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +2.6 -- 67.1% chance of victory Classic Version (polls

  • Columbo
    Columbo

    Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.   Not surprised that DeWine won - but the 5-point margin of victory was a surprise in a race that looked like a 50-50 split.

Posted Images

Ohio GOP governor candidate Jim Renacci picks Cincinnati City Council member Amy Murray as running mate

 

Renacci, a Northeast Ohio U.S. House member, is seeking the Republican nomination to replace Gov. John Kasich, who is term-limited. Murray adds a Southwest Ohio balance.

 

 

More below:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/11/ohio-gop-governor-candidate-jim-renacci-picks-cincinnati-city-council-member-amy-murray-running-mate/940500001/

“To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”

^That's a better combo then Josh Mandel + whoever he picks, but hopefully the Democrats can pull it off this election.

 

Some kind of Cordray / Whaley combo would be good IMO.

Mandel is running for senate (again) against Sherrod Brown.

So, is he saying he had a relationship with Senator Bob Taft (Senior)? His first true love!  ;D

 

Someone needs some grammar help!  It does sound like he was doing Bob Taft!

  • 4 weeks later...

Stay in California Kuch.

Kucinich is a kook.  Perhaps on the level Trump.

Maybe we'll be treated to a free Willie Nelson concert as part of the campaign

Kucinich couldn't  win Ohio 40 years ago, his chances are even worse now. It is either going to be Dewine, Cordray or Renacci

I'm still standing with "Cordray vs. DeWine" for the GE. I don't see Renacci winning the GOP nod at all. He has little recognition outside of NE Ohio, and his attempts to position himself as a Trump-like candidate are increasingly likely to backfire as Trump's own political fortunes and popularity tank.

 

Kucinich will also be on the margins in this race. The Dems' nominee needs to aim to win over a broad political coalition in order to be competitive, something that Cordray seems well suited for, but Kucinich not so much.

Cordray will announce his running mate Wednesday.  Any guesses?

Kucinich is a kook.  Perhaps on the level Trump.

 

Exactly. He's a liberal version of Trump. No moral compass. He's all about Dennis, not about the issues. Was anti-abortion all of his life until he ran for president, licked his finger, stuck it in the air and found that he could get more votes if he did a 180 on a very important position. Sorry, while I believe it's the woman's right to choose, I also believe it's important to fight for what you believe in and be a reliable policymaker.

 

EDIT: I rest my case....

 

Dennis Kucinich‏Verified account

@Dennis_Kucinich

 

GREAT #inauguration speech @RealDonaldTrump! Congratulations & best wishes from Dennis & Elizabeth Kucinichwatching from Beirut, Lebanon

 

12:37 PM - 20 Jan 2017

 

https://twitter.com/Dennis_Kucinich/status/822498322816630785

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

Kucinich couldn't  win Ohio 40 years ago, his chances are even worse now. It is either going to be Dewine, Cordray or Renacci

 

I think it comes down to DeWine vs. Cordray.  I think they are both capable and qualified.  I would view this race as a toss up too.

I'm still standing with "Cordray vs. DeWine" for the GE. I don't see Renacci winning the GOP nod at all. He has little recognition outside of NE Ohio, and his attempts to position himself as a Trump-like candidate are increasingly likely to backfire as Trump's own political fortunes and popularity tank.

 

Kucinich will also be on the margins in this race. The Dems' nominee needs to aim to win over a broad political coalition in order to be competitive, something that Cordray seems well suited for, but Kucinich not so much.

 

A state wide democrat needs to be similar to Senator Brown on trade/labor.  Being liberal on social issues helps to bring n the progressives.  I think Cordray has a chance to thread that needle.  I don't think union blue collar types care as much about social as they do about fiscal issues. 

 

I think Tim Ryan is someone who could put that coalition together too.  But perhaps not well known enough yet.

Dewine would not be bad. Cordray may be too cerebral to win now a days. He is a  very smart educated man but may not have the personality to carry himself in blue collar Ohio.

^ You may be right about Cordray but I think he can appeal to blue collar types with the right message.  Maybe he can campaign with Sherrod.

He definitely will be formidable competition and the best Democrat that has run in Ohio in a long time. However, given Ohio's recent shift to the right, he will have his work cut out for him. Personally, I thought Jerry Springer would have been very competitive in Ohio given the current political climate.

I saw Cordray speak in person once; he looks and sounds the part, and obviously he's extraordinarily intelligent, though that's obviously not synonymous with electoral success.  I'd be interested in hearing him speak on the opiate crisis or other issues that could fall under the very broadest rubric of "consumer protection" but not necessarily consumer financial protection that was his bailiwick at the CFPB.

It may be early but the interesting thing so far is that there really is not a candidate for either party that garners the passion of really anyone on this board, either love or hate. Now, I don't expect anyone to garner the passion that Trump has but the passion level around everyone is pretty meh. (I.e. Dewine would be fine, don't love him or hate him; Cordray is highly intelligent and qualified, but not all that up to going for a rally for him)

 

For example, In state politics, Mandel really is a figure who excites his base and angers his opponents base.

 

Just not seeing that in the governors race so far. It is interesting

Just to be clear, I have no problem with politicians being boring.  I think DeWine would be fine.  But I get that "Fine With DeWine" is not likely to be a rallying cry for his campaign.

How about Cordray is OK?  Lol

There was excitement for Bill O'Neill but not anymore.  DeWine has made some moves toward the center, suing the opiate companies and such.  He might be able to coast in on name recognition.  It will take some work for Cordray to counter that.  DeWine is nothing like Trump so tying them together isn't likely to help.

^ Do people think Trump has sucked so much air out of the room that it is hard to get excited for the governors race, the candidates are just non polarizing, or state races in general are rather boring.

 

I remember in 2006 & 2010 and to a limited extent 2014 there seemed to be passion on both sides. Everyone on the left was energized for Strickland and hated Blackwell. The right loved Kasich in 2010 and he was fairly polarizing in 2014

 

 

Also, has Dewine moved toward the center or has the Trump effected pulled everyone way more right?

^ Do people think Trump has sucked so much air out of the room that it is hard to get excited for the governors race, the candidates are just non polarizing, or state races in general are rather boring.

 

It's quite early. I'm not saying it will turn out to be a passionate race, but I think it's too early to say it isn't one or it won't be one.

 

I think the campaign specifically for governor will be relatively calm because I think we're going to get Dewine vs. Cordray who are two calm, measured people in this era of chaos. But I also think that due to it being Trump's midterm, there will be high turnout and lots of energized Dems, that it'll be very close and the best chance for Dems in Ohio in what feels like forever.

It's definitely early.  However, I don't think any of these two will generate a lot of passion against them.  I don't care for many of DeWine's policy positions, but I think he'd be fine.  I prefer cordray but neither of these guys strike me as polarizing.  Perhaps,  it's just what we need.

It'll be interesting to see if Cordray or whoever wins the D nomination can make education a big issue. That seems to be the big thing that the suburban Republicans I know dislike Kasich for - "He's destroyed the schools." Referring to underfunding, overtesting, and ridiculous teacher evaluations which don't account for the students at all.

^ I really think the economy will be the big issue.  Whoever can reach the blue collar voters will likely win the election. 

I suppose I should add ...

It may be early but the interesting thing so far is that there really is not a candidate for either party that garners the passion of really anyone on this board, either love or hate. Now, I don't expect anyone to garner the passion that Trump has but the passion level around everyone is pretty meh. (I.e. Dewine would be fine, don't love him or hate him; Cordray is highly intelligent and qualified, but not all that up to going for a rally for him)

 

For example, In state politics, Mandel really is a figure who excites his base and angers his opponents base.

 

Just not seeing that in the governors race so far. It is interesting

 

Having spent several more posts kind of nodding along to this about Cordray and DeWine, I admit I had already kind of blew past the posts regarding Kucinich announcing his run.  If Kucinich is the Democrat nominee, then there will be passion, and I will very passionately vote against the Flake By the Lake, even if the Republicans nominate Joe the Plumber.

I would say the same thing about Renacci. The idea of a politician who openly wants to be more like Trump is appalling. Trump didn't even choose to be Trump, he just is Trump.

 

If that Trump inauguration day tweet from Dennis Kucinich is real, that'll be enough to sink him in the D primary if his rivals just get the word out about it. Dems aren't going to be in the mood for anyone who has that kind of praise for Donald.

I suppose I should add ...

It may be early but the interesting thing so far is that there really is not a candidate for either party that garners the passion of really anyone on this board, either love or hate. Now, I don't expect anyone to garner the passion that Trump has but the passion level around everyone is pretty meh. (I.e. Dewine would be fine, don't love him or hate him; Cordray is highly intelligent and qualified, but not all that up to going for a rally for him)

 

For example, In state politics, Mandel really is a figure who excites his base and angers his opponents base.

 

Just not seeing that in the governors race so far. It is interesting

 

Having spent several more posts kind of nodding along to this about Cordray and DeWine, I admit I had already kind of blew past the posts regarding Kucinich announcing his run.  If Kucinich is the Democrat nominee, then there will be passion, and I will very passionately vote against the Flake By the Lake, even if the Republicans nominate Joe the Plumber.

 

If dems nominate Kucinich (unlikely), I will leave the governor box blank.  Unless the GOP nominates Jim Jordan (I know he isn't running)

Looks like Cordray has chosen Betty Sutton for his Lt. Gov. candidate. I predicted he would either choose Sutton or Dayton's Nan Whaley. Sutton is probably the best strategic choice he could have made as a counterweight to DeWine's Lt. Gov. choice of Jon Husted.

 

The main event for the GE is shaping up fast, despite whatever pretenses are being made now to the contrary. I don't take Kucinich seriously as a gubernatorial candidate, nor does Mary Taylor's or Bill O'Neill Lt. Gov choices today suddenly make them legitimate gubernatorial contenders. Kucinich would have been better off running for Congress again somewhere on the West Coast, while Taylor and O'Neill are both likely heading for political retirement after the primaries.

 

I, for one, honestly don't see this presumptive matchup as as a yawn fest. I mean, isn't the apparent want of drama and celebrity in our politics in the vein of Trump, Jerry Springer, etc., what got us into the mess we are in with DJT? If DeWine and Cordray can have a series of rational debates around the state on the real issues, without all of the name-calling, tweeting, and over-the-top bs that we saw nationally this past cycle, we're all the better for it here in Ohio.

 

Ohio has a unique and pleasing shape, I have always thought. Kind of a pentagon or home plate, with straight sides, a meandering river boundary below, and a partly straight top with a friendly bite mark out of it on the northeast side from Lake Erie.

 

Uhhhhh....ok?

Very Stable Genius

^ Sounds like he's channeling his inner Kucinich.

It was fine until he got to the part about the bite mark.

Nan Whaley drops out and endorses Rich Cordray.

^wow. Just lost whatever respect I had for Renacci. People say, amongst the GOP he's pretty decent, but I just heard him speak for the first time--about being a 'businessman' and about defending the 'shithole' comment.....I can't see what people are talking about. I'm happy he's dropped out of the governor's race. A guy like that could do far more damage as governor than as a senator....but hopefully he won't win that either.

 

 

WHat was once a crowded field is starting to gain a lot of clarity on both sides.

  • 4 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

So apparently "polls have been tightening" and Kucinich might be competitive with Cordray in next month's Democratic Primary. That would be terrible if Kucinich won, and a good way to hand the GOP control for another 8 years. I will be voting in the Dem primary and pulling the lever for Cordray.

^I have a strong preference for Cordray too, but if the last presidential election taught us anything, it's don't count out the deranged white populist with name recognition.

I've just noticed some Cordray ads beginning to appear on TV here in Columbus, prominently featuring his work for the CFPB and with voice-over from Obama. Elizabeth Warren will also be in town tomorrow for a Cordray rally near OSU

I never thought I'd say this but I hope the good voters of Central and Southern Ohio save the voters of Northeast Ohio from themselves (in the Dem primary at least)

 

I've been curious about that, because at least here in NEO, Kucinich ads and signs are surprisingly common.  As in, there is an enormous billboard for the Kucinich campaign very, very visible from my office window.  There are Kucinich signs on lawns along major slow-speed, high-traffic commuter streets (i.e., prime campaign sign real estate).  I haven't seen anywhere near as many for Cordray.  Is Kucinich concentrating the bulk of his firepower in the NEO and this is therefore the exception, not the rule?  The yard-sign and billboard landscape would be very different in Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, etc.?

Bill O'Neil all the way.  He may not know anything about a bridge in Cincinnati but he knows plenty about the ladies.

I never thought I'd say this but I hope the good voters of Central and Southern Ohio save the voters of Northeast Ohio from themselves (in the Dem primary at least)

 

Kucinich has been all over Fox News defending Trump. Seems like he would have potential to bring the Obama voters who went for Trump back into the D column. I wouldn't count him out as a legitimate contender in a general election.

I'm still a little skeptical but that's actually an interesting point.

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