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2018 Gubernatorial Election

ColDayMan
in Ohio Politics

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What if he was right, about all the corruption?  How much better off would we be today if we'd listened to him and cleaned house?  Brent Larkin is as complicit as anyone in allowing malfeasance to go unchallenged.  Guess whose job it is to "call everybody a bunch of crooks" if that's what they are?

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  • freefourur
    freefourur

    don't worry about polls.  Just vote.

  • DEPACincy
    DEPACincy

    As of 10:15am on Monday, November 5th, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +2.6 -- 67.1% chance of victory Classic Version (polls

  • Columbo
    Columbo

    Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.   Not surprised that DeWine won - but the 5-point margin of victory was a surprise in a race that looked like a 50-50 split.

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Cordray v Dewine will definitely be a rather boring election

 

Boring is good these days.

"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

#MEBA

 

Make Elections Boring Again™

The most recent NRA report card has DeWine as a B, Taylor as an A, Cordray as a C-, and Kucinich as an F.

Very Stable Genius

Received this text yesterday:

 

Hi Travis, I'm John w/Kucinich for Governor. We’re for healthcare4all, legal cannabis, great public transportation! Will you vote Dennis May 8?

 

Just received this one as well:

 

Hi! This is Amanda with Joe Schiavoni For Governor. He's a Democrat who fights for gun safety & to fix our schools. Can he count on your vote?

^ It's interesting to see him push his gun control policies out as "gun safety." His website vaguely says he supports the 2nd Amendment, but most of the talking points he lists don't have anything to do with gun safety, which typically refers to the safe handling of firearms in order to prevent accidental discharge. I think his campaign decided "gun control" sounded too authoritarian for an Ohio audience, even though that's precisely what he's pushing (albeit a light version of it - for a Democrat).

"in the late 2000s."    You mean like the year 2950?  Just kidding.

 

"Columbus had a handgun ban in the 2000s but it went away sometime"

 

It didn't passively 'go away'---Cordray fought to prevent Columbus from having such a law.

 

 

You understand he was defending the law that was passed by the legislature and signed by the governor, right?  That was his job.

 

The last time the Dems won the governorship, Ted Strickland, he had the NRAs endorsement.  He had it against Kasich and lost, but he polled way behind Fingerhut.

 

Seriously, the smartest thing the Ohio Democratic Party could do is renounce any tightening of gun laws.  It cost them lots of votes and gains them zero.  Just like abortion for the GOP.

"It's not every day in Cleveland or any other city that you have the mayor calling the city council a bunch of lunatics and buffoons," says Brent Larkin, The Plain Dealer's editorial director, who covered Kucinich's reign for the now-defunct Cleveland Press. "You don't call everybody a bunch of fucking crooks, and that's what he did."

 

Kucinich may have been right about corruption and lethargy, but he was now proving to be a much worse alternative. After all, a mayor's job is a yeoman's task, about paving streets and ensuring safety. But Kucinich had allowed style to manhandle substance; he was against everything, rather than providing solutions of his own.

 

Who does that sound like?

 

 

Hint: Trump

 

For a while, I've thought of Kucinich as the Trump of the left.

 

It's not unfair.  They are both populists who change their views when the polls suggest they should.  Ever look at Kucinich's history on abortion?

Cordray smashed Kucinich - Dennis didn't even win one county.

 

Wow!  Not even Cuyahoga?  That's sad for Dennis!  Time to retire to the cushy life of a Fox News contributor.

Cordray smashed Kucinich - Dennis didn't even win one county.

 

Wow!  Not even Cuyahoga?  That's sad for Dennis!  Time to retire to the cushy life of a Fox News contributor.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html

 

Schiavoni won Trumbull and Mahoning counties.  Cordray won the other 86.

 

In Cuyahoga it went Cordray 68,870, Kucinich 50,580, and Schiavoni 5,219.

Very Stable Genius

Good.  Now I don't have to care so much who wins in November because we've actually got two good candidates in the general election.

I BADLY miss "boring" elections, where experienced politicians talked about actual issues

The enquirer had the headline today "Sanity Returns to Ohio"

I BADLY miss "boring" elections, where experienced politicians talked about actual issues

 

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

I BADLY miss "boring" elections, where experienced politicians talked about actual issues

 

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

 

Damn fair point. Idk how I can let the world know that everyone has Trump Derangement Syndrome without screaming

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

 

If you really want an answer, just scroll back a few years through any of the pre-Trump political threads on this forum and you'll see exactly how it used to be done.

Leave the policy crap to D.C. propellerheads

 

Let's shoot some tube TVs with shotguns!

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

 

If you really want an answer, just scroll back a few years through any of the pre-Trump political threads on this forum and you'll see exactly how it used to be done.

 

I don't think I've ever seen you discuss policy TBH.  I am not scrolling back to look for it either.  You and EVD hide when policy is discussed and only come around to own libs.

Leave the policy crap to D.C. propellerheads

 

Let's shoot some tube TVs with shotguns!

 

I found some crazy hippy on the street who has crazy beliefs.  All libs are like this.  Hannity with the story at 9.

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

 

If you really want an answer, just scroll back a few years through any of the pre-Trump political threads on this forum and you'll see exactly how it used to be done.

 

*Weeps*

But how are you supposed to own the libs by talking about boring policy and whatnot.

 

If you really want an answer, just scroll back a few years through any of the pre-Trump political threads on this forum and you'll see exactly how it used to be done.

 

*Weeps*

 

Remember when the conservatives on this board got mad at me for telling the truth.  Modern conservatism has no tenets other than making liberals mad.  I have been proven correct.

PPP tends to skew a little high toward the Dem candidate. I would anticipate Cordray is leading at this point, but since Ohio has been skewing rightward of late, I doubt it would be that high, especially since neither candidate carries much external baggage in this race nor are either candidates overly charismatic.

https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

 

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Democrat Richard Cordray continues to hold a strong lead against Republican Mike DeWine in the general election race for Ohio Governor.

Cordray held a 9-point advantage (47/38)over DeWine in April and currently leads by 5 points (44/39).

 

PPP polls usually add about 2 to 3 percentage points for the Dem so I'd say this race is a complete tossup at this point.

I think Cordray is unfortunately facing an uphill battle, even if Brown wins by a comfortable margin. DeWine has much better name recognition, and despite the Trump takeover of the ORP and somewhat bruising primary battle with Taylor, he's still seen as a moderate, sane, Kasich-style Republican. I can foresee a lot of split tickets, especially in suburban areas that vote for both Brown and DeWine

I think Brown easily holds his Senate seat and the governors race will be a toss up.  But November is still a ways out and national events (economy, etc.) can change by then.  I think it comes down to whether economy continues growing or a slow down occurs.

Brown is pretty popular and Renacci is not well known throughout most of the state.  It is not a great year for an upstart. If the Gov race was not going to be competitive, it may have helped Renacci but really cant see him winning this race.

Brown is the like what the Midwest prototype for a Democrat should be like.  He is very progressive but he tends to focus his messaging on economic issues.  I don't really support many of his economic views myself but I think they are popular with blue-collar voters.

https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

 

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Democrat Richard Cordray continues to hold a strong lead against Republican Mike DeWine in the general election race for Ohio Governor.

Cordray held a 9-point advantage (47/38)over DeWine in April and currently leads by 5 points (44/39).

 

This is very surprising to me, to be honest. I feel like almost every poll I've seen has shown DeWine ahead. I'm a bit more (cautiously) optimistic about Cordray's chances now. He was clearly the right choice for the primary, and is a good fit for Ohio. I highly doubt that Kucinich would be polling ahead of DeWine if he won.

Brown and Portman are probably our senators for as long as they want to be. As far as the PPP poll, that's nice for Cordray but there needs to be a few more polls from different pollsters to really get a good idea of where the race stands.

  • 4 weeks later...

The big difference between this and the Senate race is that Brown is already above 50% in the Senate race.  That tends to suggest an electorate that has already largely made up its mind, barring shocking new news.

 

There are a lot more undecideds in the governor's race.  But I'm not all that surprised that Cordray has a lead here, though I admit I'm surprised at the length of that lead, even at this early stage.

 

Remember one thing about the Republican attacks on the CFPB: They tended to focus on its structure.  It was drafted in a kind of constitutional limbo that made it easy to attack on that front.  Minimal accountability, separate funding, etc.  But when Republicans wanted to attack the substance of what the CFPB was actually doing, they seldom went to the broader media with that; that would be confined to specialized business press where the financial industry is part of the essential infrastructure of capitalism rather than a den of soulless, lying, cheating, bloodsucking parasites.

 

To this day, I remain convinced that most people didn't care overmuch about Trump's previous business bankruptcies in the general election because very few ordinary people actually lost their shirts in those bankruptcies.  Most of the losses fell on bondholders and other institutional investors.  I'm not even sure how many were held by retirement funds and similar vehicles that serve a broad range of ordinary-people beneficiaries.  Most of the losses might well have been borne by private equity investors and other high-end institutional investors.  And no one loses sleep over them.  At least no one in Ohio.  The bank bailout still remains one of the seminal moments in the formation of the tea party movement, and more particularly, the anger that motivated that movement.  That anger is the same anger that ultimately elected Trump.  And Cordray is more able to tap into it, if he chooses, than Republicans might expect.  I would be stunned if it played poorly in Ohio.  (In fact, one of the few things that I could see getting Trump's actual, serious fanbase to turn against him would be another bank bailout.)

 

 

To this day, I remain convinced that most people didn't care overmuch about Trump's previous business bankruptcies in the general election because very few ordinary people actually lost their shirts in those bankruptcies.  Most of the losses fell on bondholders and other institutional investors.  I'm not even sure how many were held by retirement funds and similar vehicles that serve a broad range of ordinary-people beneficiaries.  Most of the losses might well have been borne by private equity investors and other high-end institutional investors.  And no one loses sleep over them.  At least no one in Ohio.  The bank bailout still remains one of the seminal moments in the formation of the tea party movement, and more particularly, the anger that motivated that movement.  That anger is the same anger that ultimately elected Trump.  And Cordray is more able to tap into it, if he chooses, than Republicans might expect.  I would be stunned if it played poorly in Ohio.  (In fact, one of the few things that I could see getting Trump's actual, serious fanbase to turn against him would be another bank bailout.)

 

It is absolutely true that we did not hear much about normal folks losing their shirts in those bankruptcies but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. I spend a decent amount of time in Atlantic City. Go there and talk to locals about the effect Trump had on that town. Lots of regular folks in that town lost their shirts because of Trump's actions.

Atlantic City is irrelevant to the Right because it "lost", like Detroit.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Trump voters have been bankrupt themselves; that's why they don't mind. But imagine the hellfire from the Right if someone who went bankrupt was a Democratic candidate.

Atlantic City is irrelevant to the Right because it "lost", like Detroit.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Trump voters have been bankrupt themselves; that's why they don't mind. But imagine the hellfire from the Right if someone who went bankrupt was a Democratic candidate.

 

Anecdotally, this rings true. My family members who are the most fervent Trumpers also have multiple bankruptcies.

Name recognition typically is beneficial to a candidate's polling, even in today's anti-establishment environment.

 

Furthermore, Cordray's won statewide elections before, so I wouldn't say he's unknown. Dewine is definitely more well known though.

 

The poll results are very interesting but it will take a few more polls to figure out what's really going on.

Cordray is well-known around Columbus for sure.

Cordray is not known like say Sherrod Brown. If Brown were running and the polls said this, I think it would be a much more ominous sign

Cordray is not known like say Sherrod Brown. If Brown were running and the polls said this, I think it would be a much more ominous sign

 

Lucky for Cordray, Brown will also be on the ballot.

So far this is the first time the Democrats didn’t self destruct since 2006, and they won that one.

 

Mary Taylor would have won, I’m pretty sure.  I have doubts about DeWine, I may not vote for him myself.  They never should have turned over the state party to Cult45 after their hero got trounced in the primary.

 

So far this is the first time the Democrats didn’t self destruct since 2006, and they won that one.

 

Mary Taylor would have won, I’m pretty sure.  I have doubts about DeWine, I may not vote for him myself.  They never should have turned over the state party to Cult45 after their hero got trounced in the primary.

 

 

You really think Mary Taylor would've been the stronger candidate against Cordray? I disagree. I think she alienated a lot of the more moderate-thinking people whose votes are needed to win in Ohio

^Like me. I'm proudly a Kasich supporter who never would've voted for Mary Taylor. I'm still undecided about November.

  • 2 weeks later...

For as long as I can remember, the hateful and divisive political rhetoric that has now, unfortunately, become the norm on the national state has always been rare in Ohio. Ohio's Republicans and Democrats aren't all that far apart on most issues, and even when they are there's not a lot of vitriol between the two sides. Unfortunately, Cordray appears to be taking the low road.

 

PX column: Why did Richard Cordray link some Ohio Republicans to Nazi collaborators?

 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2018/06/25/ohio-governors-race-dem-richard-cordray-makes-bizarre-nazi-reference/730717002/

 

In the age of Donald Trump, Nazi references are way out of control in American political discourse.

 

How out of hand? Even some of the wonky, nice guys in politics are making them.

 

But that doesn't excuse Ohio gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray, who made a bizarre comment likening some Republicans to Nazi collaborators while speaking in Lima before last month's primary. Politics Extra on Monday obtained a video of Cordray's speech to the Allen County Democratic Party Women's Club on March 8.

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