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  • don't worry about polls.  Just vote.

  • As of 10:15am on Monday, November 5th, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +2.6 -- 67.1% chance of victory Classic Version (polls

  • Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.   Not surprised that DeWine won - but the 5-point margin of victory was a surprise in a race that looked like a 50-50 split.

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Much ado...

 

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180626/cordray-touts-clean-energy-backs-off-gop-nazis-quote

 

Responding to a Dispatch question after the event, Cordray expressed regret for linking Ohio Republicans with Nazi collaborators during an earlier speech.

 

Criticizing local GOP officials who stayed silent while Republican officials in Columbus were cutting funding to their communities, Cordray had said: “Somebody said to me these are ‘Vichy Republicans,’ which I didn’t fully understand. I guess that’s ‘Vichy France’ during World War II, the ones who went over and collaborated with the Nazis.”

 

The comments came to the Allen County Democratic Party Women’s Club on March 8, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, which posted the video.  “I repeated a comment that somebody else had made to me, and I now regret that I did that because it was not particularly well thought-out in the first place,” Cordray told The Dispatch.  “My point was that people ought to be willing to speak up for what’s right in the state, regardless of party.”

For as long as I can remember, the hateful and divisive political rhetoric that has now, unfortunately, become the norm on the national state has always been rare in Ohio. Ohio's Republicans and Democrats aren't all that far apart on most issues, and even when they are there's not a lot of vitriol between the two sides. Unfortunately, Cordray appears to be taking the low road.

 

Do you need a safe space?

Very Stable Genius

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Look what you made me do. 

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

It was a sarcastic comment about how you make fun of liberal "safe spaces" on campuses and the left being too sensitive.

Very Stable Genius

  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180711/dewine-pledges-to-keep-full-medicaid-expansion-coverage

 

Mike DeWine long had labeled Ohio’s expansion of Medicaid health coverage to 664,439 adults — largely the working poor — as financially unsustainable.

 

The Republican gubernatorial candidate talked of continuing treatment for the drug-addicted and mentally ill while seeking unspecified flexibility and waivers from federal authorities to revamp the program. The expansion, DeWine said, “will not exist as we know it.”

 

On Wednesday afternoon, DeWine flatly said he would retain the entire Medicaid expansion while seeking reforms, imposing work requirements for recipients and instituting wellness programs to reduce costs.

 

DeWine basically adopting Cordray's position (with a few slight differences) on Medicaid expansion.

Very Stable Genius

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

 

He didn't start it.  He adopted the tactics of the "PC" left and adapted them for his purposes.  He's an accomplished BS ar...errrr....."salesman" so he is better at them.

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

 

He didn't start it.  He adopted the tactics of the "PC" left and adapted them for his purposes.  He's an accomplished BS ar...errrr....."salesman" so he is better at them.

 

Adopted the tactics of the PC left.  AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  We are still plugging that boogeymen.

 

Was it the PC left that wore shirts during the campaign that said f*** your feelings?

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

 

The discussion we were engaged in (read a few posts back) was about how for the most part, the "low road" tactics that permeate both sides of national politics now have not been seen much in Ohio state politics. Neither from the Republicans nor Democrats. Until now.

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

 

The discussion we were engaged in (read a few posts back) was about how for the most part, the "low road" tactics that permeate both sides of national politics now have not been seen much in Ohio state politics. Neither from the Republicans nor Democrats. Until now.

 

Right. And where we saw it on full display was the GOP gubernatorial primary. Some of the worst attack ads I've ever seen in a statewide election.

Do you need a safe space?

 

This type of comment also serves as an example of what I'm talking about when I say "low road." It's something I'd expect in the Trump thread, but you guys seem to have been completely overcome by this type of hateful divisiveness. I've never voted a straight ticket before, but if this type of rhetoric is going to become the norm it might drive we towards that.

 

Really? This is so maddening. Trump and the GOP have been taking the "low road" from square one. Trump started all the devisiveness and keeps stirring it up every chance he gets. Republicans invented the concept of calling people snowflakes and asking them if they need a safe space. But it's liberals that are overcome by hatefulness? Please.

 

The discussion we were engaged in (read a few posts back) was about how for the most part, the "low road" tactics that permeate both sides of national politics now have not been seen much in Ohio state politics. Neither from the Republicans nor Democrats. Until now.

 

Jim Jordan is from Ohio.

Very Stable Genius

FOP just endorsed Cordray.  That's a significant one because, IIRC, they're one of the few unions that's not always a lock to endorse the Democratic candidate.

 

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180724/fop-of-ohio-endorses-richard-cordray-for-governor

 

Even more interestingly, the FOP almost entirely endorsed Democrats for the statewide races this year: Cordray for governor, Brown for Senator, Dettelbach for AG, Space for Auditor, Richardson for Treasurer, and Stewart and Donnelly for Supreme Court. The only Republican they endorsed was LaRose for Secretary of State, which kinda makes me wonder what exactly they saw in Kathleen Clyde that differentiated her so much from the rest of the Democrats.

 

Not that I really care that much either way. The FOP is not an organization I would take political advice from. Still I thought this was interesting.

  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

An interesting comment at the latest City Club of Cleveland roundtable was that Columbus for the past several years has been cleaning up in the competition for state funds relative to the other two C's. Has this point come up in either gubernatorial campaign?   

Remember: It's the Year of the Snake

^Has that observation been documented anywhere? Could very well be true, but seems just as likely to be a misconception getting passed off as fact.

I read a Dispatch article on state development dollars a few years back that stated 80% of them went to the Columbus metro that year. It wasn't just one big project for just that one year, either.

FOP just endorsed Cordray.  That's a significant one because, IIRC, they're one of the few unions that's not always a lock to endorse the Democratic candidate.

 

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180724/fop-of-ohio-endorses-richard-cordray-for-governor

 

Even more interestingly, the FOP almost entirely endorsed Democrats for the statewide races this year: Cordray for governor, Brown for Senator, Dettelbach for AG, Space for Auditor, Richardson for Treasurer, and Stewart and Donnelly for Supreme Court. The only Republican they endorsed was LaRose for Secretary of State, which kinda makes me wonder what exactly they saw in Kathleen Clyde that differentiated her so much from the rest of the Democrats.

 

Not that I really care that much either way. The FOP is not an organization I would take political advice from. Still I thought this was interesting.

 

Might be more that LaRose is seen as a very principled guy.  He was open about his qualms about Trump in '16 and won't commit to supporting him.  He was my state senator before I moved and was very good.

 

At this point I'm likely to vote for the Republicans except for governor where I will probably go third party.  Neither major gubernatorial candidate can convince me to vote for them at this point, though either could convince me to vote for the other.

It seems like most of the Republicans I know are planning to vote for Sherrod and Aftab, or whomever the D running for Representative is in their district, because they aren't happy with how R's have been unwilling to check Trump. But they're mostly sticking to the party line in other races. Aside from those who appear to be transitioning out of the party altogether, feeling like it left them behind.

It seems like most of the Republicans I know are planning to vote for Sherrod and Aftab, or whomever the D running for Representative is in their district, because they aren't happy with how R's have been unwilling to check Trump. But they're mostly sticking to the party line in other races. Aside from those who appear to be transitioning out of the party altogether, feeling like it left them behind.

 

I can't vote for Sherrod and there's no Republican in my district.    I'll probably go ahead and vote for Renacci.

Cant vote for Aftab. Dislike Chabot, but cant vote for Aftab.

Cant vote for Aftab. Dislike Chabot, but cant vote for Aftab.

 

Why?  He doesn't appear to be a MFA or Abolish ICE candidate.

Very Stable Genius

Aftab's entire platform, so far as I can tell, is "I'm not Chabot." That's not good enough. As a lite Republican who rarely, if ever, votes party line I don't really have much of a reason to dislike Chabot so that's not going to swing me. I had a similar conversation with an Aftab volunteer who knocked on my door a week or two ago. Her only talking points were about Chabot and Trump, in the few minutes we talked there was no discussion whatsoever about the candidate she was trying to get me to vote for. Now, you can say a lot about Chabot but it's not like he's Hillary Clinton - people aren't going to line up to vote for anyone but him. I don't think that's a winning strategy.

Aftab's going to suffer from low information voters who tend to vote based on their gut feeling of a candidate and not the positions they hold.  Unfortunately, there are far too many of these people who will stay with the grey-faced, old, white male incumbent versus someone who I'm guessing is from Indian descent.

"Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." - Warren Buffett 

Cant vote for Aftab. Dislike Chabot, but cant vote for Aftab.

 

Why?  He doesn't appear to be a MFA or Abolish ICE candidate.

 

I know him personally, not a huge fan. He is ok.

I wont say anything personally bad about the guy, just personally not a huge fan. I don't have issues with people who vote for him.

He is not to the level of Chris Seelbach who is just an giant a-hole and generally a complete jerk of a human being.

FOP just endorsed Cordray.  That's a significant one because, IIRC, they're one of the few unions that's not always a lock to endorse the Democratic candidate.

 

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180724/fop-of-ohio-endorses-richard-cordray-for-governor

 

Even more interestingly, the FOP almost entirely endorsed Democrats for the statewide races this year: Cordray for governor, Brown for Senator, Dettelbach for AG, Space for Auditor, Richardson for Treasurer, and Stewart and Donnelly for Supreme Court. The only Republican they endorsed was LaRose for Secretary of State, which kinda makes me wonder what exactly they saw in Kathleen Clyde that differentiated her so much from the rest of the Democrats.

 

Not that I really care that much either way. The FOP is not an organization I would take political advice from. Still I thought this was interesting.

 

Might be more that LaRose is seen as a very principled guy.  He was open about his qualms about Trump in '16 and won't commit to supporting him.  He was my state senator before I moved and was very good.

 

At this point I'm likely to vote for the Republicans except for governor where I will probably go third party.  Neither major gubernatorial candidate can convince me to vote for them at this point, though either could convince me to vote for the other.

 

LaRose is a flip flopper. He changed his mind on SB5 and the FOP was very upset with him. He made amends by sponsoring a bill to hide dash cam footage from public records. (https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/05/ohio_senators_bill_would_shiel.html) A cynic would say he created this bill for one reason - to get back in FOP's good graces. I'm not sure it was ever passed.

  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Fraternal Order of Police on DeWine lying tonight about his commitment to police training #OHGovDebate

IMG_20181008_230316.jpg

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

https://www.suffolk.edu/news/77863.php

 

Cordray leads 46-40% in latest Suffolk poll of the governor's race.  Brown is pulling ahead 54-36% of Renacci for the Senate seat.

Very Stable Genius

EXCLUSIVE: An internal memo, obtained by American Bridge and provided to Plunderbund, indicates that in 2012 and 2013, Mike DeWine twice declined to go after the drug companies that flooded Ohio with addictive prescription opioids. Instead, he waited to take legal action in May 2017, a month before announcing his bid for Governor.

http://plunderbund.com/2018/10/15/documents-reveal-mike-dewine-declined-to-take-on-drug-companies-fueling-opioid-epidemic/

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

That's out of spite for Corday's former position as the head of the CFPB.

It's probably the only reason why Dewine is tied with Cordray. DeWine is such a bad AG that the FOP is endorsing Democrat Cordray. It sickens me that this race is so close. 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

1 hour ago, KJP said:

It's probably the only reason why Dewine is tied with Cordray. DeWine is such a bad AG that the FOP is endorsing Democrat Cordray. It sickens me that this race is so close. 

 

I think the FOP has been endorsing a lot more Democratic candidates lately in order to save face.

1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ohio/articles/2018-10-17/nearly-1-million-absentee-ballots-requested-in-ohio

 

This could go in any number of threads, but nearly 1 million absentee ballots have been requested across Ohio, up almost 200,000 from this point in 2014.

 

This is more because the rules changed than anything else.   Anyone can request one, and no longer has to show up in person at a certain place during a certain time frame.   It's not as much political as an example of the same megatrend that has caused ATMs and online shopping to boom.

^Yes, it will be interesting to watch if this is "enthusiasm" or more people just transitioning to absentee ballots.

Very Stable Genius

2 hours ago, KJP said:

 

 

I'm still undecided between Cordray and Irvine, but every time a GOP commercial talks about "opiates" I lean more towards the former.   Both parties have a completely misdirected approach to the heroin crisis, but the GOP is more militant.

I think it's super bizarre that DeWine has tried to spin his record during the opioid epidemic as not only something positive, but something to gloat about. I guess it's such an important issue that keeping quiet wasn't a reasonable option, so might as well claim he's done a great job (more like about as bad as possible until right as election season was starting). The numbers really speak for themselves. Ohio's been hit harder than any other state.

1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

 

This is more because the rules changed than anything else.   Anyone can request one, and no longer has to show up in person at a certain place during a certain time frame.   It's not as much political as an example of the same megatrend that has caused ATMs and online shopping to boom.

What rules are you talking about? I've voted absentee in every election for the last 12 years. I filled out a form, dropped it in a mailbox, and then they sent me my ballot. Nothing about that has changed. I do it the same way, as I did back then. If I had to guess, many of the gains are due to parties pushing early voting. It is flat out encouraged on both sides of the political spectrum. 

Does Cordray really have a chance to win? I have not been following as closely as I should. I can't stand Dewine.

^Cordray has ~40% chance according to FiveThirtyEight.

Just now, Toddguy said:

Does Cordray really have a chance to win? I have not been following as closely as I should. I can't stand Dewine.

 

Everything I've read shows it honestly as a 50/50 race.

Very Stable Genius

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