October 29, 20186 yr After this past week, I'm interested to see how the polls move. I'd guess he goes from 40% to 50/50 chance. Although early voting may have cancelled out a portion of the recency bias.
October 29, 20186 yr Just now, 10albersa said: After this past week, I'm interested to see how the polls move. I'd guess he goes from 40% to 50/50 chance. There are very few polls being conducted. Not sure we see any more before 11/6. Very Stable Genius
October 29, 20186 yr True, I guess I should have said the 538 'political climate/generic ballot' adjustments over the next few weeks.
October 30, 20186 yr https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-close-governor-races-ohio-oregon-kansas-democrats-look-pick-congressional-seat-kansas#.W9hcOExFyUk Quote Ohio Governor Ballot Test Richard Cordray (D) 49%, Mike DeWine (R) 46%, 3% undecided Emerson shows Cordray holding a 3-point lead over DeWine heading into the final week (also, perhaps notably, they only have Sherrod Brown leading by 6 points over Renacci). Very Stable Genius
October 30, 20186 yr Baldwin-Wallace also out with a ton of Ohio Polls: Republican Mike DeWine holds a 39.4 percent to 38.8 percent lead over Democrat Richard Cordray, according to the latest polling, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Senate: Brown up 51.2 percent to 31.7 percent, Attorney General: Democrat Steve Dettelbach leads Republican David Yost, 40.2 percent to 38.9 percent. Ohio Secretary of State: Democrat Kathleen Clyde leads Republican Frank LaRose, 39.8 percent to 33.7 percent. Auditor: Democrat Zack Space leads Republican Keith Faber, 40.2 percent to 32 percent. Treasurer: Democrat Rob Richardson leads Republican Robert Sprague, 38.8 percent to 36 percent. Issue 1 is supported, 43 percent to 39.8 percent, the BW polling found. Yet, 17.2 percent remain undecided. https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2018/10/polling_shows_ohios_governors.html Edited October 30, 20186 yr by cincydave8
October 30, 20186 yr You have to try really hard to find ~20% of voters who are undecided a week out from Election Day. Very Stable Genius
October 30, 20186 yr I'm guessing most people will just skip a lot of the issue's and judges like they always do. Plus a ton of people have already early voted - myself included.
October 30, 20186 yr Just now, DarkandStormy said: You have to try really hard to find ~20% of voters who are undecided a week out from Election Day. I'm hoping there are a lot of people who know who DeWine is and don't like him and don't really know much about Cordray. This has been backed up by a couple of the polls I've analyzed. They will say undecided unless pushed by the pollster but hopefully they'll cast their vote for whoever the Democrat is on election day.
October 30, 20186 yr Just now, cincydave8 said: I'm guessing most people will just skip a lot of the issue's and judges like they always do. Plus a ton of people have already early voted - myself included. I'm talking about the governors number. Neither is at 40%. Edited October 30, 20186 yr by DarkandStormy Very Stable Genius
October 30, 20186 yr As of 11:00am on Tuesday, October 30th, the 539 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +0.9 -- 55.7% chance of victory Classic Version (polls + fundamentals) -- DeWine +0.2 -- 51.5% chance of victory Deluxe Version (polls + fundamentals + expert ratings) -- DeWine +0.5 -- 52% chance of victory
October 30, 20186 yr https://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2018/oct/29/mike-dewine/mike-dewine-ad-blames-rich-cordray-raising-taxes-a/ DeWine is really reaching (aka lying) in his final ads leading up to the election. Very Stable Genius
October 30, 20186 yr There's a real chance the Great Lakes states are a total wipeout for GOP gubernatorial candidates. Chances are that Walker holds onto WI or DeWine squeaks it out, but not both. Overall it's looking like a real shift is in store.
October 30, 20186 yr 17 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said: https://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2018/oct/29/mike-dewine/mike-dewine-ad-blames-rich-cordray-raising-taxes-a/ DeWine is really reaching (aka lying) in his final ads leading up to the election. I think his negative ads have backfired. The rape kit ads really rubbed people the wrong way. I know a few Republicans who have said they thought the ad was so preposterous on its face that they were inspired to actually do more research and then they found out just how disingenuous it was.
October 30, 20186 yr Its all based on who actually shows up at the polls. i wonder if gen z and suburban moms are getting under counted in the polling as well as various ethnicities. This is an incredibly diverse country now and the prez has managed to tick off most all ethnicities. He sort of had orthodox Jews in his camp since his daughter is Jewish. But after this week i don’t see them giving him much support. Also in this last week of campaigning Trump is going to be running around the country in panic mode flying off the handle trying to scare up his base. Not a good look for the rest of the country. Sure he can get his 50 million trumpies to come out and vote. The country’s population is now 325 million. So there should at least another 150 million more eligible voters. I don’t see how there isn’t a blue wave.
October 30, 20186 yr 11 minutes ago, StapHanger said: There's a real chance the Great Lakes states are a total wipeout for GOP gubernatorial candidates. Chances are that Walker holds onto WI or DeWine squeaks it out, but not both. Overall it's looking like a real shift is in store. It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa all flip to a Democratic governor. Georgia, Florida, and New Mexico as well (I'm sure there are a few I'm forgetting). Very Stable Genius
October 30, 20186 yr Not getting talked about enough is that these governors will be in office for redistricting, this is a huge deal. I know Michigan and Ohio will probably have redistricting councils in place now, but having a D in office should hopefully help even these states' reps out so that it actually represents the electorate.
October 31, 20186 yr http://radio.wosu.org/post/ohioans-requested-12-million-absentee-ballots-outpacing-2014 1.2 million absentee ballots requested, outpacing 2014 midterms. Very Stable Genius
October 31, 20186 yr On 10/30/2018 at 2:51 PM, DarkandStormy said: It's not out of the realm of possibilities that Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa all flip to a Democratic governor. Georgia, Florida, and New Mexico as well (I'm sure there are a few I'm forgetting). Guess we have to add *Alaska* to the watch list. Very Stable Genius
October 31, 20186 yr https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/414116-court-rules-ohio-must-count-provisional-ballots-for-certain Quote A federal appeals court is ruling that the Ohio boards of elections must count provisional ballots in this year's midterm elections for certain individuals who were previously purged from the voter rolls. A three-judge panel of the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals issued the ruling on Wednesday, Cleveland.com reported. The court stipulated that Ohio must count votes cast by people who were purged from the voter rolls between 2011 and 2015 and live in the same county of their last registration. Those voters can cast ballots as long as they were not disqualified from voting due to reasons such as felony conviction, mental incapacity or death. Very Stable Genius
October 31, 20186 yr On 10/30/2018 at 2:29 PM, audidave said: Its all based on who actually shows up at the polls. i wonder if gen z and suburban moms are getting under counted in the polling as well as various ethnicities. This is an incredibly diverse country now and the prez has managed to tick off most all ethnicities. He sort of had orthodox Jews in his camp since his daughter is Jewish. But after this week i don’t see them giving him much support. Also in this last week of campaigning Trump is going to be running around the country in panic mode flying off the handle trying to scare up his base. Not a good look for the rest of the country. Sure he can get his 50 million trumpies to come out and vote. The country’s population is now 325 million. So there should at least another 150 million more eligible voters. I don’t see how there isn’t a blue wave. I don't think there will be. Those 50 million include a lot of what can be called "left populists", especially from the white working class. People with left or left leaning views about economics that don't buy into identity politics (or buy into their own, depending on how you see it). They were the reason Trump won in 2016. The Dems took them for granted and they resented it, and that's a group that resents hard. For the most part the Dems are still taking them for granted. Trump is still pandering to them, and even though they are pretty sure he is full of modell tehey much prefer that to what they are hearing from the Democrats. Then there's this "caravan" thing. Uncontrolled immigration is an issue where they stand firmly with the right-populists, albeit for different reasons. This is why I suspect GOP allies may have stirred it up. Ohio is a different matter. The state Dems have largely wised up, the GOP has not.
November 1, 20186 yr ^I think the expected suburban voting pattern has been captured in the polling. What the big question is, will first time Millenial voters come out as well as gen Z. Gen Z is the great unknown at this point. I’m certain the polling is assuming like other generations before, the initial forays are around 15-20% of 18-25 are voting aka not a significant factor. If as i suspect, they double that participation percentage that will shift races all over the country. Hence the blue wave. I think Gen Z wants to make their voice heard. Many things in their lives are made pretty easy with technology and the crazy policy issues the GOP is digging up hail from the 1870s-1940s are not going to play well with them. Its certainly a history lesson. But not one they feel they need to live. They are interconnected i feel and as seen following parkland can organize themselves pretty effectively. With cultural icons like Taylor Swift imploring them to vote, I feel they get the power they now have. We will not know for sure until Tuesday night. But if Gen Z votes as a block and comes out in force, it could be a blue tsunami. That might even flip a few seats in Ohio.
November 1, 20186 yr A lot of Gen Z is still young enough to vote the same way their 56-year old dads do though
November 2, 20186 yr https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Ohio_November_1_2018.pdf Cordray up 48-43% in latest OH Governor poll. The poll managed to find 56% of respondents who approve of Trump - which is kind of an outlier among state polling. Good sign for Cordray, imo. Very Stable Genius
November 2, 20186 yr As of 9:50am on Friday, November 2nd, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +1.9 -- 62.8% chance of victory Classic Version (polls + fundamentals) -- Cordray +0.9 -- 55.7% chance of victory Deluxe Version (polls + fundamentals + expert ratings) -- Cordray +0.7 -- 54.9% chance of victory Still a tossup but has moved in Cordray's favor.
November 2, 20186 yr FWIW, I have seen more campaign signs for Cordray, O'Connor, and other Democrat office holders than I have for most Republicans (exceptions being Troy Balderson & Andrew Brenner) in my corners of Delaware & Morrow Cos. this week.
November 5, 20186 yr On 11/2/2018 at 10:54 AM, DEPACincy said: As of 9:50am on Friday, November 2nd, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +1.9 -- 62.8% chance of victory Classic Version (polls + fundamentals) -- Cordray +0.9 -- 55.7% chance of victory Deluxe Version (polls + fundamentals + expert ratings) -- Cordray +0.7 -- 54.9% chance of victory Still a tossup but has moved in Cordray's favor. As of 10:15am on Monday, November 5th, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +2.6 -- 67.1% chance of victory Classic Version (polls + fundamentals) -- Cordray +1.6 -- 59.5% chance of victory Deluxe Version (polls + fundamentals + expert ratings) -- Cordray +1.2 -- 57.2% chance of victory Edited November 5, 20186 yr by DEPACincy
November 5, 20186 yr On 11/2/2018 at 4:41 PM, Magyar said: FWIW, I have seen more campaign signs for Cordray, O'Connor, and other Democrat office holders than I have for most Republicans (exceptions being Troy Balderson & Andrew Brenner) in my corners of Delaware & Morrow Cos. this week. In Lake County, the greater portion of the signs I have seen are for Dewine, Joyce, and Renacci. But to be honest, there aren't nearly as many signs as I was expecting for any candidates.
November 5, 20186 yr Just now, DEPACincy said: As of 10:15am on Monday, November 5th, the 538 model has been updated to show the following results: Lite Version (polls only) -- Cordray +2.6 -- 67.1% chance of victory Classic Version (polls + fundamentals) -- Cordray +1.6 -- 59.5% chance of victory Deluxe Version (polls + fundamentals + expert ratings) -- Cordray +1.2 -- 57.2% chance of victory Dammit I want Cordray so bad I can't stand it. I hope these are right.
November 5, 20186 yr Can anyone tell me the point of yard signs in public places? I can see the point in yards themselves, but "autumn weeds" spread all over a median seems like a waste of campaign resources. What's ironic is I say this, having made a bit of a positive reputation with the Reagan '80 campaign for suggesting we pass out our extras at the Monday Night Football game the night before the election. ?
November 5, 20186 yr 44 minutes ago, freefourur said: ^ did you vote yet? No I prefer to do it with the masses Tomorrow.
November 5, 20186 yr 41 minutes ago, E Rocc said: Can anyone tell me the point of yard signs in public places? I can see the point in yards themselves, but "autumn weeds" spread all over a median seems like a waste of campaign resources. What's ironic is I say this, having made a bit of a positive reputation with the Reagan '80 campaign for suggesting we pass out our extras at the Monday Night Football game the night before the election. ? In local elections, yard signs can make a big impact. People might vote for some random local judge because they recognized their name from all the signs they saw. In high profile races like for statewide and national elections they make no difference other than that house showing their support for a candidate or issue.
November 7, 20186 yr Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent. Not surprised that DeWine won - but the 5-point margin of victory was a surprise in a race that looked like a 50-50 split.
November 7, 20186 yr Just now, Columbo said: Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent. Not surprised that DeWine won - but the 5-point margin of victory was a surprise in a race that looked like a 50-50 split. I was pretty shocked by this outcome. Not only because the polling off, but because I felt like DeWine didn't run as good of a campaign, didn't have a clear message. I think there's underlying issues with some of these polling methods that's not being accounted for. Whether it's turnout, making assumptions on undecided voters, or just more accurate polling...
November 7, 20186 yr I've heard that with polling switching to cell phones and online surveys, they now underestimate Baby Boomer voters as opposed to older methods that missed young people. So, DeWine's support was underestimated. This also impacted polling leading up to the 2016 election.
November 9, 20186 yr If there are any Dewine/Brown voters out there, please explain how you arrived at that vote. Thanks. Very Stable Genius
