$3.80 now with some pretty big blocks on the buy side.

 

Edited April 1, 20205 yr by Dougal

There was 100,000 shares sitting at $4; that got taken up in bout 30 seconds.

 

Touched $4.10 briefly. Every cent it goes up, my position's value grows by $200.

I went to the yahoo posts to see what is going on. They said that the CEO was on Fox being interviewed. So it now has a chance to be seen and touted by trump. That means that this plus the 15 million shares today it is now in the land of super hype.  All logic and reason goes out the window now. 

Looking at the book, there's nothing in the way of $4.50 if there's enough time today.  Then expect some profit taking tomorrow.

 

Edit: back down to $4 ...  day traders getting out ...

 

Edited April 1, 20205 yr by Dougal

On 3/25/2020 at 11:23 PM, jmecklenborg said:

 

My dad shoved myself and my brothers out into the real world with almost zero guidance or financial support. 

 

The only advice I ever got from my father was, "Never invest in anything that eats or needs painting."

28 minutes ago, audidave said:

I went to the yahoo posts to see what is going on. They said that the CEO was on Fox being interviewed. So it now has a chance to be seen and touted by trump. That means that this plus the 15 million shares today it is now in the land of super hype.  All logic and reason goes out the window now. 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/cleveland-biotech-company-making-headway-on-possible-covid-19-treatment

58 minutes ago, Dougal said:

 

The only advice I ever got from my father was, "Never invest in anything that eats or needs painting."

I would disagree with that. Typically real estate is a solid asset class in almost all environments and after we emerge from this, we will probably have an inflationary environment and it is a great hedge against inflation.

16 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I would disagree with that. Typically real estate is a solid asset class in almost all environments and after we emerge from this, we will probably have an inflationary environment and it is a great hedge against inflation.

 

Vacation rentals are bad in this environment.  Airbnb is bad in this environment.  Raw land is bad in this environment.  Student rentals will be very bad if classes do not return for the fall.  

 

Renting bedrooms in a single-family house or a typical multifamily is pretty tough to beat.  A recent study from 2017 or 2018 that analyzed the 08-09 recession found that single-family homes did a little better than multifamily because people prefer to live in a single-family vs. an apartment if the prices are similar, which they were at the depths of the recession.  

16 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

Renting bedrooms in a single-family house or a typical multifamily is pretty tough to beat.  A recent study from 2017 or 2018 that analyzed the 08-09 recession found that single-family homes did a little better than multifamily because people prefer to live in a single-family vs. an apartment if the prices are similar, which they were at the depths of the recession.  

 

Or you can take it one step further, buy a multi-family, live in it and rent out the other units.   I did this 12 years ago and couldn't be happier.  My tenant pays my mortgage for me and I get to write 1/2 all maintenance.  

 

28 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

Or you can take it one step further, buy a multi-family, live in it and rent out the other units.   I did this 12 years ago and couldn't be happier.  My tenant pays my mortgage for me and I get to write 1/2 all maintenance.  

 

 

Yeah those damn millennials call it "house-hacking".  Considering the fact that most duplexes are at least 50 years old, I'm not sure how they've tricked themselves into thinking they invented it.  

I remember a buddy of mine's folks rented their half from their neighbor Maxine in the '80s.

1 hour ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Vacation rentals are bad in this environment.  Airbnb is bad in this environment.  Raw land is bad in this environment.  Student rentals will be very bad if classes do not return for the fall.  

 

Renting bedrooms in a single-family house or a typical multifamily is pretty tough to beat.  A recent study from 2017 or 2018 that analyzed the 08-09 recession found that single-family homes did a little better than multifamily because people prefer to live in a single-family vs. an apartment if the prices are similar, which they were at the depths of the recession.  

I would not be in student rentals for another 20 years. The Millennials are the largest generation on the planet and they are cycling their way through college and will be done by 2023-2024. Gen Z which is starting to get to college is the smallest generation, smaller than Gen X. All of the expansion done the last 12 years in student housing is going to be a crash. Colleges are going to see a 20-25% drop in enrollment in the next few years just because there will be a lot fewer babies born in the 2000-2020 range then were born 1980-2000

43 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I would not be in student rentals for another 20 years. The Millennials are the largest generation on the planet and they are cycling their way through college and will be done by 2023-2024. Gen Z which is starting to get to college is the smallest generation, smaller than Gen X. All of the expansion done the last 12 years in student housing is going to be a crash. Colleges are going to see a 20-25% drop in enrollment in the next few years just because there will be a lot fewer babies born in the 2000-2020 range then were born 1980-2000

 

Agreed, except tons of college students are having their luxury apartments funded by living or deceased grandparents.  This phenomenon didn't exist to the degree it does today during Gen X's heyday or certainly before. 

 

Meanwhile, we're seeing huge mortgage forbearance predictions:

 

1 minute ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Agreed, except tons of college students are having their luxury apartments funded by living or deceased grandparents.  This phenomenon didn't exist to the degree it does today during Gen X's heyday or certainly before. 

 

 

 

All in the name of Supermax security levels in the buildings.

1 hour ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Agreed, except tons of college students are having their luxury apartments funded by living or deceased grandparents.  This phenomenon didn't exist to the degree it does today during Gen X's heyday or certainly before. 

 

Meanwhile, we're seeing huge mortgage forbearance predictions:

 

But, things that places like UC is doing with its innovation district or other urban area campuses can be a little more insulated because some of the university housing is going to be repurposed to young professional housing for those who work in some of the emerging tech companies in the incubators. 

 

The places that are going to get killed are the smaller liberal arts schools in small cities and rural areas. If there are not employment drivers in the city to keep alumni there, there is no way to absorb a 20% reduction in students. State schools like Miami and OU will be fine but will still struggle with some dip in enrollment. Being state schools help out there.

Where I went, SSU, is already back down to the enrollment level it was at when I was there in the late '90s/early 2000s after peaking in 2009-2010. People look at P-town and are like "No way will I find a job here unless it is at the hospital/middle school/MRDD/bar."

Edited April 2, 20205 yr by GCrites80s

where does everyone see the Dow going to?  It went down around 20k then saw a nice bump when the bail out bill was passed but I'm seeing way too much impending economic news coming especially from Europe...  I think it'll go down to around 18 but I have nothing to base that on other than a hunch.

 

I've been toying with the idea of putting money back in as a Dow average ETF rather than specific stocks

29 minutes ago, gottaplan said:

where does everyone see the Dow going to?  It went down around 20k then saw a nice bump when the bail out bill was passed but I'm seeing way too much impending economic news coming especially from Europe...  I think it'll go down to around 18 but I have nothing to base that on other than a hunch.

 

I've been toying with the idea of putting money back in as a Dow average ETF rather than specific stocks

It's tough to predict the bottom but I would think that as COVID peaks it will get worse.  I am waiting for tomorrow's job numbers to see what effect that will have.  I think 16K might be a realistic bottom but this is just a guess on my part. I don't think you could wrong in the longterm if you jump in at 18K though. It just depends on your time horizon. 

My best guess is that 14K is the floor, but there's really no telling due to the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 in modern times.  My general plan is to start feathering in (in total market mutual funds or ETF's obviously) at 18K and I'll ride it down to the bottom or until I run out of money.

I'm more optimistic, actually.  I think we may touch the 19k range again but I think there's a decent chance that we're already past the bottom, and if not, I think we will be by the end of April.

 

The Dow is down around 29% (using the 29,000 figure as my estimate of its peak).  It was down about 38% when we scraped 18,000 a few weeks ago.

 

Have we really destroyed 38% of the wealth of the entire economy?  Or are we on the verge of getting there?  Granted, the 29,000 peak was a bit of a bubble so some correction was due anyway.  But as I noted on the coronavirus thread, a lot of the economy is still running.  A lot of the economy really is essential.

 

I think the 14k number at this point would require a breakdown even within the essential sectors.  And I'm not seeing that.  Manufacturing, agriculture, distribution, tech, mining, forestry, utilities, emergency services--all are still functioning for now and I think they will continue to do so.  The big what-if in my mind is health care, which of course is not shut down but rather is overloaded (and is on the front line, meaning that there is a risk that hospitals themselves could be forced to close if their own staff becomes too infected across the board, which fortunately has not been happening just yet either, and hopefully never will).

 

Let's put it this way: I would consider a virus that posed a wide-scale threat to grain production (especially if it could threaten multiple kinds of grains) vastly more dangerous than one that actually threatens us humans directly, even if it could not pass into humans and required no quarantine measures at all, and almost no one in a city ever actually saw the virus in action directly.

10 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

I think the 14k number at this point would require a breakdown even within the essential sectors.  And I'm not seeing that.  Manufacturing, agriculture, distribution, tech, mining, forestry, utilities, emergency services--all are still functioning for now and I think they will continue to do so.  The big what-if in my mind is health care, which of course is not shut down but rather is overloaded (and is on the front line, meaning that there is a risk that hospitals themselves could be forced to close if their own staff becomes too infected across the board, which fortunately has not been happening just yet either, and hopefully never will).

 

Manufacturing had been in recession for most of 19, ending at it's worst level in quite some time.   It would be reasonable to assume that COVID19 will have a huge impact on sectors that were already hurting.   If there is going to be another stimulus, they should be looking at this data.  

On 3/10/2020 at 6:24 PM, jmecklenborg said:

I wanna see the tech bros suffer.  

 

 

nothing would make me happier, but as everyone is online now, remote working and all, its likely they will only get richer.

I agree that a lot of the economy is still running as close to as normal as possible, but what you're missing are the gig, retail and service workers of the world.  This is a significant portion of the US workforce, and they are going to need to get by on unemployment pay and a $1,200 check? This isn't going to magically all get better once social distancing is lifted.  Those people are going to push/default on loans, not be able to pay electric/water/insurance/etc, only buying essentials. There will be ripples felt for years simply on those lines of work.

 

Macy's and Mercy Health furloughing corporate workers may be the canary in the coal mine for these ripples and the effect they may have on the office jobs of the world.

 

And if construction stops (it hasn't yet here in Ohio), then we are talking major supply chains being busted and going under. On top of those workers being out of jobs.

Edited April 2, 20205 yr by 10albersa

Lots of profit-taking today on ATHX. I might use this opportunity add to my position.

Goodyear is trading at $5/share.  They are typically around $20 and were $35 back in 2018...

2 hours ago, 10albersa said:

Macy's and Mercy Health furloughing corporate workers may be the canary in the coal mine for these ripples and the effect they may have on the office jobs of the world.

 

And if construction stops (it hasn't yet here in Ohio), then we are talking major supply chains being busted and going under. On top of those workers being out of jobs.

 

The Macy's furlough is a headline that's not getting nearly enough press.  Add up all those locations.  Assume 1/4 of them will not re-open, the shutdown will just be too lengthy and financially devastating...

 

Now add up the effect that has when a major anchor tenant like that goes dark in an already struggling suburban mall.   What happens to the secondary retailers....  

 

What happens to the property owners when Macy's is no longer a paying tenant?  Everything gets reduced  - security, maintenance, cleaning, etc

 

What happens to the entire real estate market when more big blocks of space like this become available?   I think this entire pandemic has accelerated the death of brick/mortar retail and ramped up the online-purchasing for so many who weren't previously using it. 

 

I see grocery stores as the next big shakeup.  For a host of reasons, people just don't want to go into a grocery store anymore.  Set up your online "shopping cart" with frequently purchased items, and get it at curbside pickup or home delivery.  Done.  When this is the "new normal" (I hate that buzzword by the way) it no longer requires a grocery store to occupy valuable real estate - it can be located anywhere, in a cheap warehouse, whatever

Well if you want a preview of what the economy will look like if people give all their money to the internet rather than spend in in their communities, this is it.

RE: Macy's, the most devastating thing that happened to department stores is the lack of white-collar jobs in this country brought on by computers and the internet. Most jobs now either have uniforms or it's OK to wear Wal-Mart clothes at them.

Someone just bought a sh*tload of ATHX at $2.50. Caused the price to drop 20 cents in a heartbeat -- mine. I'm not having a good day. EDIT: had to sell it before I lost everything.

Edited April 2, 20205 yr by KJP

21 minutes ago, KJP said:

Someone just bought a sh*tload of ATHX at $2.50. Caused the price to drop 20 cents in a heartbeat -- mine. I'm not having a good day.

There was a hit piece put out on this stock on seeking alpha.  The guy basically says everything about ATHX is garbage and is short and feels the value is $0.  That is mainly why this dropped so heavy.  It probably is a good time to jump back in.  The author of the article didn’t really leave his name but its understood he has a libel suit against him. 

I am looking to move more cash in to ATHX. I might wait to see if it goes below $2.

13 minutes ago, audidave said:

There was a hit piece put out on this stock on seeking alpha.  The guy basically says everything about ATHX is garbage and is short and feels the value is $0.  That is mainly why this dropped so heavy.  It probably is a good time to jump back in.  The author of the article didn’t really leave his name but its understood he has a libel suit against him. 

 

I might join in on the libel suit! Dude just cost me 20K.

27 minutes ago, KJP said:

I might join in on the libel suit! Dude just cost me 20K.

Paper losses aren't real until you sell...

Further good news(or bad news for KJP)from testing in NY from a doctor:
 

@FaheemYounus: Treatment news! 5 critically ill COVID patients (on ventilators) received antibody-rich plasma from 5 other patients who had recovered from COVID. 

Results: 3 discharged; 2 in stable condition!

Now 1 of my recovering patients wants to donate his plasma!

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983?resultClick=1

3 minutes ago, audidave said:

Further good news(or bad news for KJP)from testing in NY from a doctor:
 

@FaheemYounus: Treatment news! 5 critically ill COVID patients (on ventilators) received antibody-rich plasma from 5 other patients who had recovered from COVID. 

Results: 3 discharged; 2 in stable condition!

Now 1 of my recovering patients wants to donate his plasma!

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983?resultClick=1

 

There was a big hoo-hah about this in the WSJ today also - as if it's something somebody just thought up.  It's a standard method of addressing a virus infection. 

Yes and I’m not surprised it is successful. There were some questions when the virus first was coming out whether there were agents in the blood that would be left to attack the virus again. The answer is very much likely yes. This was such a small sample I have to believe they are going to make this much larger. 

Meanwhile, back on Wall Street ... my longstanding bitch about ATHX is they have fallen in love with their own technology.  Their "multi-stem" tech has for years shown promise, sometimes even huge promise; but they just can't seem to get a product out the door. And shipping *something* has not been their priority. That's why I was encouragd by their recent hires of a couple experienced 'emerging bio-tech company' veterans. 

5 hours ago, Cleburger said:

 

Manufacturing had been in recession for most of 19, ending at it's worst level in quite some time.   It would be reasonable to assume that COVID19 will have a huge impact on sectors that were already hurting.   If there is going to be another stimulus, they should be looking at this data.  

 

I'm more pessimistic than most about this economy I think and it's probably because I work in aerospace which is taking it on the chin right now.  But I honestly believe that this recession is going to be deep and long.  Aerospace employs something like 2.5 million people in the US at wages that are well above median and it also accounts for approximately 20% of US manufacturing.  In Ohio the aerospace sector accounts for 10% of our exports.  This industry is at a standstill right now.  I've never seen anything like it.  If we don't begin to see some relief by the end of May it could get really ugly.  What do you do with thousands of highly skilled engineers, scientists, technicians, pilots, etc. while waiting for the industry to rebound (which could take years)?  Massive military programs?

 

The larger problem in my opinion is that our economy is so driven by the consumer that we're exceptionally sensitive to pandemics like this.  Live by the consumer, die by the consumer.

4 hours ago, Hootenany said:

 

But I honestly believe that this recession is going to be deep and long. 

 

The larger problem in my opinion is that our economy is so driven by the consumer that we're exceptionally sensitive to pandemics like this.  Live by the consumer, die by the consumer.

 

Much of the quote-unquote "economy" is silly stuff paid with debt.  The MBA's make fun of you if you save cash and pay for things with cash. 

 

I work in a not-glamorous industry.  I get on our work computer and I see how screwed up our pending PO's are from our mysterious Chinese vendors.  We buy basic, basic stuff.  U.S. suppliers are going to add a third shift in a month or two, price gouge, but ultimately produce too many widgets.  Suddenly the Chinese stuff will show up in Long Beach in June or July and our U.S. producers will have to sell their stock for pennies on the dollar.  The whole damn thing is so predictable. 

 

I was just at the supermarket. It looks like they overordered bottled water since it was piled up all over the place. By now there's fewer customers in there than there normally would be.

12 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

I was just at the supermarket. It looks like they overordered bottled water since it was piled up all over the place. By now there's fewer customers in there than there normally would be.

 

Think of all of the spring season clothes piled up in the warehouses of J.Crew, Abercrombie, etc.  Hundreds of thousands of prom dresses that will never be worn. 

 

Macy's, etc., are having to decide right now how much summer and fall stuff to order.  They're going to order way less than last year.  So if things go back to normal, they left money on the table. 

It's true that I wouldn't be invested in luxury retail now, but I also wouldn't have invested in luxury retail six months ago, either.  Not that Macy's counts as luxury, of course, but I wouldn't have invested in anything that relies on big spenders for formal parties, whether proms or the high-end stuff that goes on well beyond high school.  LVMH, for example, has doubled in five years from $36 to $71, even counting the recent dip, so not too bad, but I'd still be leery.  Likewise, I wouldn't have touched most brick-and-mortar retailers even a year ago, so the fact that I wouldn't touch them now is not a change.  The last one I think I owned was Bed Bath & Beyond, which I held for a few years and sold basically for minimal change.

35 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Think of all of the spring season clothes piled up in the warehouses of J.Crew, Abercrombie, etc.  Hundreds of thousands of prom dresses that will never be worn. 

 

Macy's, etc., are having to decide right now how much summer and fall stuff to order.  They're going to order way less than last year.  So if things go back to normal, they left money on the table. 

 

Winter clothes are often a problem for retailers since some winters are totally wussy in much of the U.S. So the apparel industry does have a lot of experience with that side of things and it's why Burlington Coat Factory exists. It's also why winter clothing looks change much more slowly than other seasons. No Fast Fashion in the winter biz.

 

I still think about how every Kroger was dedicating 800 square feet per store to vats of $1 5-packs of Silly Bandz around 2013 which was a full year after the 4-month fad was over.

 

But the prom store in every mall, you know the one that is open all day every day, despite doing 90% of their business in a 6-week period? Those could be toast. So the place sits there with 0 dollar day after 0 dollar day for months (with a few $500-$1000) days here and there then BOOM $250,000 in six weeks from April 10-May 25. That $250K isn't coming this year.

Edited April 3, 20205 yr by GCrites80s

On the other hand, these forgivable loans and grants that Uncle Sam is putting out could save a lot of places. I don't have all the details yet, but Prom store can be like, "Lost all of our sales from being a prom store" and the SBA might help get them a check that fixes it. That's what I've applied for in the case of my business.

28 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

totally wussy

 

The biggest fools are the lawn care guys who go all out on the mega-shovel for their mega-truck for the winter snowstorms that rarely arrive in Southwest Ohio.  Back in 2008 or so, there was a year when we got a 6-7" snowfall on December 23.  Anyone with a shovel on the front of their truck was getting $1,000 cash to clear a gas station and a lot more to clear the front of Toys-R-Us.  I'm sure that there were a number of guys in Cincinnati who made $5,000 or more that day.  That motivated a few hundred guys in Southwest Ohio to invest $5,000+ in anticipation of a similar payday that hasn't happened since. 

2006-2009 were three tough winters in a row for Cincinnati and that's probably why people thought it was going to keep up like that.

 

In Columbus those were bad plus we had a rough 2013-2015. I don't know how the latter ones were in Cincy since I had moved back up to C-bus by then.

Edited April 3, 20205 yr by GCrites80s

50 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

2006-2009 were three tough winters in a row for Cincinnati and that's probably why people thought it was going to keep up like that.

 

In Columbus those were bad plus we had a rough 2013-2015. I don't know how the latter ones were in Cincy since I had moved back up to C-bus by then.

 

For all of the "side hustle" talk of the 2010s, it's still pretty impossible to beat delivering pizzas.  The problem with bartending is that you're up way too late to maintain a regular hours job and you have to talk to annoying regulars.  Most pizza places shut down by midnight and you average around $15/hr and sometimes a lot more than that. 

 

 

 

 

Did you know that pizza guys can also be annoying regulars? I actually stopped having pizzas delivered to my stores because 1) Pizzas have far too much sodium and 2) The pizza guys would hang around the store for 15 minutes afterward wanting to talk about video games and trading cards; video games especially. I'd be standing there starving to death with a pizza turning into ice cubes while they would go on and on about video games. This happened constantly at all three of my stores for 9 years plus. Then when they weren't working they'd come in 3 times a week which I didn't mind as much because I wasn't near death those times and they'd buy things. Lots of things. Pizza gals (which there were plenty) never did this. They just took the money and ran.

And working 'til midnight is still sh*t hours. That's why the pizza guys get so cracked out on video games since the games can take place at anytime, anywhere in any weather. Anything where you're working after about 8pm and you can't participate in society. It's like a permanent Covid-19.