On 6/12/2020 at 11:37 AM, Gramarye said:

Small investors should emphatically not try timing the market.  That doesn't mean that small investors cannot learn solid long-term-buy-and-hold (LTBH) investing and beat the market solidly even over the long term.  For some reason, my data doesn't go back to 2008 when I actually started (which means that how I did in the Great Recession is lost in this data ... I did well but would have done much better if I knew about investing then what I know now).  Nevertheless, my 5-year of 20.74% is almost 11 percentage points above the market.

 

Do share.

1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

The stock market isn't the economy.  Plus, JPow is printing money faster than the machines can produce it lol

 

The stock market is becoming less and less of the economy all the time as a buttload of companies have merged and/or gone private. I wouldn't be surprised if the Wilshire 5000 has to become the Wilshire 4000 soon. ~3.5 million businesses in this country and that few of them are public.

Anybody follow KR?  They announced sales and profits for the 1st quarter that both beat street estimates and said nice things about the rest of the year. So ...? The stock went down $2 to slightly under $31.  Then I noticed there is a huge open interest in $31 puts (some of which is me on the short side).  I'm planning to take the stock if it's put to me tomorrow and I bet it bounces on Monday.

 

Thoughts?

4 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

The stock market is becoming less and less of the economy all the time as a buttload of companies have merged and/or gone private. I wouldn't be surprised if the Wilshire 5000 has to become the Wilshire 4000 soon. ~3.5 million businesses in this country and that few of them are public.

 

...and the very biggest companies in the S&P 500 are doing okay or banking right now, which masks what's going on with companies 50-500.  

 

So basically, this over-emphasis on The Market forces everyone to mainly focus on how well 3M, Amazon and Microsoft do. Give them free reign or else you have no retirement.

25 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

...and the very biggest companies in the S&P 500 are doing okay or banking right now, which masks what's going on with companies 50-500.  

 

My small cap growth fund (VBK) is up 54% in the last 90 days.  MGK (Mega cap) is up 46% in that same time.  S&P500 is up 35%.

26 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

So basically, this over-emphasis on The Market forces everyone to mainly focus on how well 3M, Amazon and Microsoft do. Give them free reign or else you have no retirement.

 

Quantitative easing and low interest rates were necessary in 2009 and few a few years thereafter, but they never let up, and that forced everyone out of bonds and into stocks and real estate.  

 

The problem now is that for stocks to rise in the 2020s they need to keep printing money and need to keep interest rates absurdly low.  Otherwise retirements savings will drift downward in value, which will discourage people from contributing to their 401ks.  

 

If we switched back to pensions that were obligated to invest in AAA bonds and blue chip dividend stocks, there wouldn't be the need for capital gains in the S&P.  

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure if what we're looking at is real, but an article is circulating that sez some 20 year-old killed himself recently after going $700k negative on Robinhood.  

 

I know a few young guys who have downloaded Robinhood on their phone and I have told them that they need to do this stuff while seated at a real computer.  Slow the hell down.  

 

 

They want people doing impulsive stuff like this though. Having to go to an actual computer makes you feel like you're actually doing something. The phone feels like Candy Crush.

WTF happened to Athersys today?  It dropped 31%!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ATHX?p=ATHX

On 6/18/2020 at 4:01 PM, GCrites80s said:

They want people doing impulsive stuff like this though. Having to go to an actual computer makes you feel like you're actually doing something. The phone feels like Candy Crush.

 

The number of people who threw their Trump checks + some saved cash into the market in March and April was massive.  So some money was still going into big, boring stuff thanks to 401k contributions, but then a lot of cash came out of nowhere and was thrown at random crap.  It pissed off the institutional buyers because they aren't allowed to throw money into random penny stocks. They aren't allowed to throw money in companies after they go bankrupt. 

 

If 10 million Americans put their $1,200 checks into the market, that's $12 billion.  But I'd bet that the sum was much higher than that - maybe $100 billion (roughly 10 million people putting $10,000 in).  So suddenly $100 billion came out of nowhere, with people accidentally piggy-backing automated trading & pump-and-dump schemes.  There are tons of listed companies with valuations around $500 million, and it doesn't take that much erratic money to double those stock prices for a day or two.   

 

 

 

 

 

On 6/20/2020 at 12:35 AM, jmecklenborg said:

 

The number of people who threw their Trump checks + some saved cash into the market in March and April was massive.  So some money was still going into big, boring stuff thanks to 401k contributions, but then a lot of cash came out of nowhere and was thrown at random crap.  It pissed off the institutional buyers because they aren't allowed to throw money into random penny stocks. They aren't allowed to throw money in companies after they go bankrupt. 

 

If 10 million Americans put their $1,200 checks into the market, that's $12 billion.  But I'd bet that the sum was much higher than that - maybe $100 billion (roughly 10 million people putting $10,000 in).  So suddenly $100 billion came out of nowhere, with people accidentally piggy-backing automated trading & pump-and-dump schemes.  There are tons of listed companies with valuations around $500 million, and it doesn't take that much erratic money to double those stock prices for a day or two.  

 

People are also spending a lot less because of the shutdown.  I would typically be going to a few Reds games every month, out to bars, out to eat, on a long vacation, etc. but I've done... none of that.  I have, in turn, been investing more. I imagine this is pretty common and helping to keep the stock market propped up.

On 6/18/2020 at 3:58 PM, jmecklenborg said:

 

I know a few young guys who have downloaded Robinhood on their phone and I have told them that they need to do this stuff while seated at a real computer.  Slow the hell down.  

 

Damn. I don't even like to send multi-paragraph emails without sitting down at a computer.

8 hours ago, Ram23 said:

 

People are also spending a lot less because of the shutdown.  I would typically be going to a few Reds games every month, out to bars, out to eat, on a long vacation, etc. but I've done... none of that.  I have, in turn, been investing more. I imagine this is pretty common and helping to keep the stock market propped up.

 

A guy at my workplace who doesn't make big money showed up last week on a brand-new Suzuki sport bike and rode it into the warehouse to show it off.  He used his Trump cash as a down payment and now owes the bank $12,000.  It was a terrible personal finance decision but unfortunately it is just this sort of thing that the government was really hoping that people would do with the checks. 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 20204 yr by jmecklenborg

Have you heard the fireworks so far this year? It's like everyone was handed a one time payment of $1200, and $600 a week until July.

19 hours ago, Ram23 said:

 

People are also spending a lot less because of the shutdown.  I would typically be going to a few Reds games every month, out to bars, out to eat, on a long vacation, etc. but I've done... none of that.  I have, in turn, been investing more. I imagine this is pretty common and helping to keep the stock market propped up.

 

I've spent so much on stupid purchases trying to shop away the boredom, probably atypical though.  I now have killer speakers, in a small apartment, that I can't use anymore because my neighbors don't like the same music I do ? 

14 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

A guy at my workplace who doesn't make big money showed up last week on a brand-new Suzuki sport bike and rode it into the warehouse to show it off.  He used his Trump cash as a down payment and now owes the bank $12,000.  It was a terrible personal finance decision but unfortunately it is just this sort of thing that the government was really hoping that people would do with the checks. 

 

 

 

 

Oh... boy... another Hayabusa (Daria voice). Hayabusas are the Nickelback of bikes -- they put up good numbers but nobody who cares about bikes cares.

Athersys took a big dive on Friday. Anyone know why? It's slowly recovering today.

1 hour ago, KJP said:

Athersys took a big dive on Friday. Anyone know why? It's slowly recovering today.

 

Options expiration day. Lots of $2 strike options were open, so it bounced (was manipulated) around that number.

 

Edit to add triple-witching explanation:

 

Understanding Triple Witching

Triple witching days generate trading activity and volatility because contracts that are allowed to expire may necessitate the purchase or sale of the underlying security. While some derivative contracts are opened with the intention of buying or selling the underlying security, traders seeking derivative exposure only must close, roll out or offset their open positions prior to the close of trading on triple witching days.

Triple witching days, particularly the final hour of trading preceding the closing bell which is called the 'triple witching hour', can result in escalated trading activity and volatility as traders close, roll out or offset their expiring positions.

.

Edited June 22, 20204 yr by Dougal

On 6/22/2020 at 2:39 PM, KJP said:

Athersys took a big dive on Friday. Anyone know why? It's slowly recovering today.

 

Currently up 31% this morning 

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

 

Currently up 31% this morning 

Bank of America Securities recommended ATHX this AM with a $5 price target.

2 hours ago, Dougal said:

Bank of America Securities recommended ATHX this AM with a $5 price target.

 

And then faded away in the afternoon when it was reported that Bank of America was the underwriter of ATHX's offering of 25.5 million shares in April. So there's a tiny conflict of interest there....

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/25/heres-why-athersys-is-soaring-today.aspx

11 hours ago, KJP said:

 

And then faded away in the afternoon when it was reported that Bank of America was the underwriter of ATHX's offering of 25.5 million shares in April. So there's a tiny conflict of interest there....

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/25/heres-why-athersys-is-soaring-today.aspx

 

It would be nice to know if BofA was on the sell side of any of that volume today moving some of their unsold allotment.  It's illegal; but, come on, this is business.

 

I don't want to own the stock; but I sold a few $3 puts.

8 hours ago, Dougal said:

 

It would be nice to know if BofA was on the sell side of any of that volume today moving some of their unsold allotment.  It's illegal; but, come on, this is business.

 

I don't want to own the stock; but I sold a few $3 puts.

 

I bought Crowdstrike and was enjoying a good run. Then it's all gone this morning. A total wipeout of the stock values over the past couple of months. I just lost $1,500 as a result. But a Crowdstrike sold $2.65 million in shares before a large block of shares was offered.

 

Sorry, but the market isn't a market of many players anymore. It's highly manipulated by a bunch of 1-percenters. There's no regulation anymore. It's all a bunch of uber-rich people playing games and using my money to play. I'm out.

Edited June 26, 20204 yr by KJP

1 hour ago, KJP said:

Sorry, but the market isn't a market of many players anymore. It's highly manipulated by a bunch of 1-percenters. There's no regulation anymore. It's all a bunch of uber-rich people playing games and using my money to play. I'm out.

 

It's always been like this.  The "I invested in NFLX @$10 and held to the top!" stories are rare.  It's also why active fund managers - nearly 90% - end up losing vs. the broad market over any 5-10 year period.

Edited June 26, 20204 yr by DarkandStormy

1 hour ago, KJP said:

Sorry, but the market isn't a market of many players anymore. It's highly manipulated by a bunch of 1-percenters. There's no regulation anymore. It's all a bunch of uber-rich people playing games and using my money to play. I'm out.

 

It's not just the uber-rich; it's enormous pension funds which are equally desperate for the last half of a percent yield. The Fed thinks is has to hold interest rates near zero, but the flip side of that is that it's killing pension funds or at least forcing them into much riskier investments. I go back to my theory that if we enforced the EXISTING anti-trust laws (which we have not done since the Kennedy Administration), half the problems would be solved.

 

Squawk off.  ATHX crossed $3 this AM.  ?

 

Interest rates need to be higher so that people have a wider variety of real-return investment choices other than just equities and real estate. This would bring housing values to more reasonable levels for one.

22 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

Interest rates need to be higher

 

Speaking of which...it took 12+ weeks but I finally closed on my refinance this past Wednesday:

 

 

Plus, I could see the house (almost) from the office where I signed the paperwork:

 

 

Congrats--I actually locked in at 3.25 back in 2010 when Obama was trying to jumpstart the housing market again.   Haven't seen much better deals since.  I have been adding extra every month so don't owe all that much--thinking of shopping for a 10 year ARM if I can control the costs.  

56 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Speaking of which...it took 12+ weeks but I finally closed on my refinance this past Wednesday:

 

 

Plus, I could see the house (almost) from the office where I signed the paperwork:

 

 

 

The combo of low interest rates and very few listings this spring has made for some wild pricing in the housing market. There have been a few sales on our street in the past month or two and they appear to have all gone for well over $300,000. One was listed for $389k and sold for $415k. The other two haven't posted yet but were listed for $349k.

24 minutes ago, Ram23 said:

$349k.

 

The prices of all homes in Cincinnati accelerated wildly in 2018-19.  There is pretty much nothing left in move-in condition under $150k.  That's a doubling in value since 2016-17, when $75k homes sat on the market for months.  I was under contract to buy a 2-family in Norwood for $63k before the seller just stopped communicating.  That same building is worth at least $125k now, even with those two ancient furnaces and the asbestos.    

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

3.25 back in 2010

 

 I actually could have gotten slightly lower if I wasn't doing a cash-out, I think they said 3.15%.  My cash-out amount was $25,000 of which I'm getting approx. $22,000.  

The weird thing is that if you refinance this time of year, it's unclear as to whether your old escrow has paid property tax or not.  So I had to pay a ton into escrow on the new loan and at some point I should get an overage check from the old loan.  

 

On 6/12/2020 at 11:47 AM, Cincinnatus said:

Workhorse Group WKHS is up huge for me. Was around .50 a share a little over a year ago, hovering around $3.60 now.

 

How you like it today?  ?

On 6/12/2020 at 11:47 AM, Cincinnatus said:

Workhorse Group WKHS is up huge for me. Was around .50 a share a little over a year ago, hovering around $3.60 now.

 

$18-20/share now ... this is going to give me a nice little bonus check. ?

4 hours ago, oakiehigh said:

 

How you like it today?  ?

Just saw this before I responded. I think there's plenty of room for even more growth. The new EV truck (Endurance), a $70 mil investment, all ev stocks are seeing growth. The Lordstown facility, contracts with USPS & UPS. 

Anything remotely related to EVs is doing well - TSLA, WKHS, NKLA, FUV, BLNK.

On 6/30/2020 at 2:02 PM, Cincinnatus said:

$18-20/share now ... this is going to give me a nice little bonus check. ?

 

JPow giveth...and JPow taketh away.

 

EDIT - nvm, JPow still giveth

Edited July 1, 20204 yr by DarkandStormy

Good grief Tesla.

 

And Amazon is roaring to 3000. Time for a 7-1 split Bezos.

2 minutes ago, TBideon said:

Good grief Tesla.

 

And Amazon is roaring to 3000. Time for a 7-1 split Bezos.

 

Wayfair has shot from $25 to $220.  

 

No way there isn't a big pullback later this year.  

 

 

2 hours ago, TBideon said:

Good grief Tesla.

 

And Amazon is roaring to 3000. Time for a 7-1 split Bezos.

 

Selling 60%-ish of my TSLA position at $353 or so was not my brightest move.  It felt good when the stock dropped below $200 after that, but since then ... wow.  Except that it then dropped back to just below where I sold it during the CoronaCrash and then has been on a tear.  I was this close to putting limit orders in to rebuy my position at $353, too; its low on March 18, 2020 was $350.51 (so $350 limit orders would never have filled, but my $353 ones would have).

 

I did actually establish a trial position in WKHS today.  I definitely worry it's a bubble (looks like some high-frequency or high-volume guys noticed the company around 6/18), but it looks like it has at least some decent prospects and I thought it was worth taking a flyer on.  Just enough to keep me interested and make me follow the company.

 

Zoom (ZM) I was a bit worried about when I bought it on 3/19, since it had already risen from $68.80 at the start of the year to $130 when I bought in, but it closed today at $259.13.  Even if it cools off a little, it is still a major gainer and I think it has a strong chance at growing into its newly elevated valuation.  It's got mindshare at this point.  That will translate to dollars with a marketable product.  Also, I've been using some partially-competing products (e.g., Microsoft Teams) but they aren't the same as a pure videoconferencing platform.

 

AMZN, of course, still remains my largest holding, since as I mentioned earlier, it already was even before this recent run and I have not sold any (in many years now), nor did I buy anything else in anything approaching the quantities it would take to equal my Amazon stake.  The Motley Fool axiom of "99% of long term investing is doing nothing; the other 1% will change your life" was something I had trouble processing during the Great Recession.  My first stake in AMZN was, I think, sometime in 2010 around $130 and I sold it for a quick gain not long afterward.  My next tranche was in January of 2011 for $177.  I still have it.

Congrats to all the TSLA and WKHS stock holders lol

17 hours ago, Gramarye said:

 

 

 

I did actually establish a trial position in WKHS today.  I definitely worry it's a bubble (looks like some high-frequency or high-volume guys noticed the company around 6/18), but it looks like it has at least some decent prospects and I thought it was worth taking a flyer on.  Just enough to keep me interested and make me follow the company.

 

 

 

I'm holding out. I think it'll be interesting to see what comes about the UPS and USPS truck deal. UPS operates ~120k trucks. USPS is around ~140k.

 

 

 

17 hours ago, Gramarye said:

 

 

 

Zoom (ZM) I was a bit worried about when I bought it on 3/19, since it had already risen from $68.80 at the start of the year to $130 when I bought in, but it closed today at $259.13.  Even if it cools off a little, it is still a major gainer and I think it has a strong chance at growing into its newly elevated valuation.  It's got mindshare at this point.  That will translate to dollars with a marketable product.  Also, I've been using some partially-competing products (e.g., Microsoft Teams) but they aren't the same as a pure videoconferencing platform.

 

 

Zoom is interesting. I work in IT at the mid-market to enterprise level and sell all things IT (infra, security, cloud, storage, DC) including zoom, webex, msft/cisco teams, etc. There's a lot of concern with companies using or joining a Zoom meeting. Google banned its employees from downloading or taking zoom calls, but I think this is more so because zoom chose oracle cloud over the other cloud providers (azure, gcp, aws). Covid def helped zoom propel, but I think cisco is taking this seriously and will answer. Google is also pushing pretty hard in the web conf market.

It will be interesting to see what products/services from the virus will be tossed away like Y2K kits or the special purple and orange 3D glasses from Super Bowl XXIII and what will continue to chug on afterward.

17 hours ago, Gramarye said:

 

"99% of long term investing is doing nothing; the other 1% will change your life" was something I had trouble processing during the Great Recession.

 

I know an old guy in Cincinnati who bought Apple stock in the 80s and...still has it.  The reason I know him is because he throws a lot of money at eccentric stuff around town like a low-wattage radio station and the Cincinnati Railroad Club.  

 

A lot of people in Cincinnati got rich when I was a kid because of P&G's stock.  Many people retired in their 50s and moved to Florida.  It caused a lot of tension because the winners weren't any wiser than the losers - to a large extent they just lucked into it.  

 

My grandmother worked as a cleaning lady at P&G from 1943 until 1949.  She didn't tell the story until after my grandfather died but she did get P&G stock but they visited a financial planner in 1955 and he advised them to sell it so they did.   

 

So in short, if they had visited a different planner or none at all they likely would have retired millionaires instead of borderline broke.  

 

On the "work/school" from home front...a lot of states seem to be in chaos about their back to school plans this fall.  Might it make sense to pick up CHGG?  I know it's already up some 160% since its low but seems like their sales are going to keep increasing.

 

I mentioned upthread about anything related to EVs doing incredibly well...TSLA gets a lot of the headlines, but less hyped stocks include FUV, WKHS (mentioned here a bit), SOLO, BLNK, IDEX, NKLA, SHLL, and maybe a few more I'm missing.  Some of these are penny stocks.  Some of these are TSLA hype without any actual products (NKLA).  Some have started producing vehicles in various spaces - consumer cars, commercial trucks, golf cart/motorcycle types, etc.

 

FUV - seems interesting.  High MSRP when you compare to a base model Yaris or other lower end compact vehicles.  They picked up Sandy Munroe, who some think is one of the better minds in the EV space.  Potentially some golf cart market interest?  Otherwise, it's a glorified motorcycle on three wheels and there are some questions around drivers needing to get a motorcycle permit for a three-wheeled, open air vehicle.

WKHS - already discussed in this thread a bit.  More in the commercial space with some impressive partners/contracts already lined up.

SOLO - up some 240% since earlier this year.  I don't believe they're in production yet?  But the Solo looks like it'll compete with Arciomoto's (FUV) Fun Utility Vehicle.  The specs on their other concept vehicles look paltry compared to Teslas, Porsche Taycan, etc.

BLNK - network of EV charging stations; unclear to me how it stacks up with Electrify America or any number of other ones out there.  Price per kwh seems very high compared to Tesla's Superchargers (nearly 3x as high with a longer charging time required).  So...I don't fully get the hype here.

IDEX - know very little

NKLA - for now, seems like a total scam.  The CEO is trying to out Elon Elon.  That's a tall order.  They have no production vehicles - just a semi prototype - and no factory yet to build their concept vehicles.  The deposits on the pickup become *NON REFUNDABLE* before the vehicle is even unveiled.  A lot of gimmicks have gone into the preorders this week (selling raffle tickets for a free vehicle depending on your deposit amount, for example).  They're also mixing BEV and FCEV tech which seems...odd.  They're going to need to build a ton of hydrogen stations if they want to scale.  To me, this has Theranos written all over it as of now.

SHLL - this is essentially VTIQ (VectoIQ) before they merged with Nikola via an SPAC.  It's essentially a blank check corporation that is public with the purposes of seeking a company to acquire.  The company in this case is Hyliion, which specializes in hybrid and electric powertrains for commercial trucks - the leader in Class 8 at the moment.  They do actually have products, though I'm a bit unfamiliar with their claim that they will recycle natural gas as part of a new power train.  Still...they have a record in sales and could beat both TSLA and NKLA to the punch in commercial trucking.

 

All of these stocks are up massively in the last few months.  I do believe we will be transitioning to more electric vehicles, so the growth is there in this space.  It's just a matter of picking out a few winners and not falling for the scams/losers.

Edited July 2, 20204 yr by DarkandStormy

It's like how there were a bazillion different carmakers in the U.S. before the Depression.

Andrew Yang:

 

Quote

 

So what is the solution? There is a bill in the House with 40 co-sponsors — the Emergency Money for the People Act — that would direct $2,000 a month to every adult making less than $130,000 per year for up to 12 months. Married couples earning less than $260,000 would receive at least $4,000 a month and qualifying families with children would receive an additional $500 per child (for up to three children).

 

This bill would put money straight into people's hands. It would help tens of millions of Americans get through this crisis while supporting millions of jobs, as families would be able to order takeout, repair their cars and buy groceries every day from hard-working small businesses. Instead of funneling money to companies and hoping for the best, we should be directing funds to families. This would give Americans a secure path forward and give us all a real chance to beat this pandemic. It's common sense. It's direct. It's effective. It's popular. It will work.

 

 

Well people like me are just going to put all of that into stocks.  Not sure how myself and another million Americans doing that helps the economy.  

 

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

Andrew Yang:

 

 

Well people like me are just going to put all of that into stocks.  Not sure how myself and another million Americans doing that helps the economy.  

 

 

 

 

Apparently the Fed and Treasury Secretary think it helps.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

Apparently the Fed and Treasury Secretary think it helps.  

 

The Fed buying corporate junk bonds to clear their balance sheets is a lot different than citizens buying stock.  

 

Changing subjects: people hesitated to jump in during the initial plunge in March, which allowed the market to sink 30%.  It seems less likely that we'll see more than a 10% pull-back with bad economic news because there will be so many people (like myself) ready to jump back in when the S&P drops to 2800.