The NRCC wants retired folks to trust a Republican, you know...the party that has said they want to cut social spending and reform Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security to help plug the deficit, with their Medicare, a form of socialism.

 

So they're admitting some forms of socialism are good?  Does their base agree?

Don't think Balderson's "We don't want someone from Franklin County representing us" comment will have enough time to take hold.

 

But I'm certain O'Connor will be playing that on blast leading up to the November election.

The OH-12 special election is finally here - voting ends today at 7:30PM.  As anyone who watched any amount of TV in Central Ohio can attest, removing the carpet-bombing level of Balderson/O'Connor ads from the broadcasts will be welcome:

 

http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180804/political-ad-bombardment-reaches-potus-campaign-levels

Sunday's Capitol Insider column in the Dispatch from Darrel Rowland is always a good read.  Here's last Sunday's column, which looks at the OH-12 race:  http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180805/capitol-insider-is-it-now-or-never-for-danny-oconnor

 

This was another column about the OH-12 race from a different Dispatch reporter.  It's also a good read, with five reasons why this race could set the scene across Ohio and nationally for what happens in November:  http://www.thisweeknews.com/news/20180802/12th-district-race-means-more-than-just-one-seat-in-congress

 

^ The second linked article also contained a very detailed map of the Franklin County portion of the OH-12 district.  OH-12 is one of the most heavily gerrymandered congressional districts, sprawling over parts of six counties north and east of Columbus.  But it is in the northern part of Franklin County that we see the gerrymandering taken to a street-to-street level.  Here's a map of OH-12 in Franklin County:

 

 

 

And here's the entire OH-12 district map:

OH-15 might be even more gerrymandered than OH-12.

 

It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

 

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

 

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

The Green Party continues to be UH-TRO-SHUS at politics

 

Rep. Chris Collins arrested by the FBI on insider trading charges and lying to the FBI

 

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/crime/rep-chris-collins-arrested-by-the-fbi-on-insider-trading-charges-and-lying-to-the-fbi/71-581613154

It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

 

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

 

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

 

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

 

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

Yeah, kind of absurd.

 

It'll be interesting to see if the Green Party leaves it alone or not.

It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

 

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

 

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

Yeah, kind of absurd.

 

It'll be interesting to see if the Green Party leaves it alone or not.

 

Haha...yeah right.  The Green Party will go in harder. 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

^ if the GOP has to put all their resources into narrowly holding onto safe districts, they're gonna have a bad time in November. 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

It was a +12 Republican district. It's been Republican for 35 years. Now it's a toss up. That says something.

Ram is trolling.  Anyone who can actually read and comprehend what happened understands that districts swinging 10-13 points to the left = bad time for the Republicans in the fall.

Bottom line ....

 

 

Our redistricting plan is superb.

 

Beyond 2020 it is going to be VERY hard for people like Marcia Fudge, Jim Jordan, Bob Latta and the like to get elected. We're going to see people like Tim Ryan's, Joyce, or Wenstrup taking their places.

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

I think that's like expecting a Blue Wave on the Medina City Council.

I believe $4-6 million was spent by the GOP candidate Balderson vs around 1.5 million by O’Conner.  Plus Trump had to come to town and Balderson got the approval of both Trump and Kasich. It is considered a +17 district for GOP.  The GOP will not have this amount of resources to defend this seat in the Fall.  This seat is still an open seat until all provisional ballots are counted. Typically these type of ballots favor Democrats since they are the ones that are going to more likely need a provisional ballot since they are going to be taken off voter rolls.

This does not bode well for what is left of the Republican party.

http://gothamist.com/2018/08/08/chris_collins_ny_congressman_vocal.php

Another GOP seat has opened up. Looking at the Cook political report that seat was considered safe Republican as i don’t see it in the toss-up, lean, or likely lists.

I think the OH-12 stays GOP in November, it was a special election so this was the best chance for a motivated Dem base to shake things up. In Nov more GOP voters will show up who skipped will come out in Nov. It will still be a close race but not as tight

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

It was +12 Republican district. It's been Republican for 35 years. Now it's a toss up. That says something.

 

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip? Most of Ohio's Republican-held districts had similarly large double-digit margins in 2016. Democrats won't have the resources to flood them all in November like they flooded this one. I'm genuinely not worried about Ohio. Nationally, based on historical trends, I'd expect Republicans to lose a few seats but I'm not all that concerned about it. The Senate almost certainly won't flip.

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

It was +12 Republican district. It's been Republican for 35 years. Now it's a toss up. That says something.

 

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip? Most of Ohio's Republican-held districts had similarly large double-digit margins in 2016. Democrats won't have the resources to flood them all in November like they flooded this one. I'm genuinely not worried about Ohio. Nationally, based on historical trends, I'd expect Republicans to lose a few seats but I'm not all that concerned about it. The Senate almost certainly won't flip.

 

They can likely flip any seat that is less than R+12.  There are a lot of those.

 

Senate likely remains Republican because of who is up for election. But ted Cruz is starting to have trouble. 

What margin of victory are we referring to here?

 

80,000-ish votes in 3 states swung the election?

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

It was +12 Republican district. It's been Republican for 35 years. Now it's a toss up. That says something.

 

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip? Most of Ohio's Republican-held districts had similarly large double-digit margins in 2016. Democrats won't have the resources to flood them all in November like they flooded this one. I'm genuinely not worried about Ohio. Nationally, based on historical trends, I'd expect Republicans to lose a few seats but I'm not all that concerned about it. The Senate almost certainly won't flip.

 

They can likely flip any seat that is less than R+12.  There are a lot of those.

 

Senate likely remains Republican because of who is up for election. But ted Cruz is starting to have trouble. 

 

WHere the Dems will win the house is not in districts like the OH-12. It will be taking some of the CA seats that were held by retiring GOP candidates as well as winning a few in the Philly burbs and Mid-Atlantic GOP held seats.  OH-12 and OH-1 will remain GOP but the votes will be a lot closer than normal in November. I tend to agree with Ram that the race will be much closer than it normally has been but still will remain GOP.

 

I think the Dems take the house but it is going to be based more on some coastal districts going blue.

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

I don't think it's meaningless - it's a preview of November in Ohio. This was supposed to be the first appearance of the "blue wave" here, and it's didn't materialize. Democrats will face similar challenges in Ohio's other Republican districts - they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats.

 

It was +12 Republican district. It's been Republican for 35 years. Now it's a toss up. That says something.

 

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip? Most of Ohio's Republican-held districts had similarly large double-digit margins in 2016. Democrats won't have the resources to flood them all in November like they flooded this one. I'm genuinely not worried about Ohio. Nationally, based on historical trends, I'd expect Republicans to lose a few seats but I'm not all that concerned about it. The Senate almost certainly won't flip.

 

They can likely flip any seat that is less than R+12.  There are a lot of those.

 

Senate likely remains Republican because of who is up for election. But ted Cruz is starting to have trouble. 

 

WHere the Dems will win the house is not in districts like the OH-12. It will be taking some of the CA seats that were held by retiring GOP candidates as well as winning a few in the Philly burbs and Mid-Atlantic GOP held seats.  OH-12 and OH-1 will remain GOP but the votes will be a lot closer than normal in November. I tend to agree with Ram that the race will be much closer than it normally has been but still will remain GOP.

 

I think the Dems take the house but it is going to be based more on some coastal districts going blue.

 

I agree.  Dems will win the House by winning suburban districts.  They can win many of these districts with candidates like Connor Lamb.

Interesting take from a man I very much respect

This is a pretty definitive look at what the races for seats looks like.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings

 

There could be more indictments over the SEC insider trading coming as several other current and former GOP Representatives also were trading that Innate stock in January of 2017.  Conaway of Texas and Price the former Secretary of HHS are a couple.

It's too close to call as of now in the OH-12 special election.  Some 8,433 ballots are still outstanding - absentee and provisional ballots.  Balderson is clinging to a 1,734 vote lead, or 0.9%.  If O'Connor were to win the outstanding ballots by 60.2% he would win the race.

 

So Balderson is certainly sitting in better position, but this was a district Tiberi won by 34 points and Trump carried by 11 points less than two years ago.  To be a virtual tie is a terrible sign for Republicans.

 

It also reinforces why they gerrymandered the **** out of the state and have been pushing for voter roll purges the last several years.

 

Results aside, I'm reading that this election is meaningless - the two candidates will face off again in the fall???? 

 

Did I read that correctly?

 

Yeah, kind of absurd.

 

It'll be interesting to see if the Green Party leaves it alone or not.

 

Haha...yeah right.  The Green Party will go in harder. 

 

I know I'm planning to write Joe Manchik a check:

 

Green party spoiler candidate in Ohio election whose 1,100 votes could tilt outcome says his ancestors were from another planet and can't remember his own campaign website address

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6039535/Ohio-Green-Party-spoiler-candidate-remember-campaign-website.html

 

Joe Manchik played spoiler Tuesday in Ohio, taking nearly enough votes in from the Democrat in a special election to trigger a statewide automatic recount

 

The native of Hell, Michigan says his ancestors came from a distant planet and couldn't remember his own website address during an interview this year

 

He claims marijuana is the solution to opioid addiction and says he speaks 19 languages including 'Spanglish' and 'Sheet Music'

 

Calls Israel's prime minister a 'war criminal' and says every American should be required to grow hemp

^Just a politically savvy candidate right there.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

In 2018 Trump is in the mid to high 40s and is flat or slightly rising depending on which poll you see.

 

In 2006 the makeup of the legislatures and state maps were very different. In Ohio for example, there are many more safe districts now than 2006.

 

In 2006 the GOP base was uninspired by Bush and were not interested in turning out to support GOP candidates. While the reliable suburban voters turned out in 2006 because they always turn out, the more rural voters stayed home or less educated GOP leaning voters in the exurbs stayed home. The Franklin County GOP who supported Bush turned out regardless.

In 2018 the Trump base is still very energized. They love him in Trump country and while suburban voters are turned off who were solidly the GOP base in 2006, there are a lot more of Trump base to replace disaffected suburban voters like myself and YABO713[/member]  to take our places.

 

I don't think it Is as clear as what the media may be predicting ,although I still think the Dems may take the house, I think the media is still has a bit of a confirmation bias that it is falling into again and reading into things a bit too much and stuck in the echo chamber. At the same time, it is also important to recognize that the forces which allowed Trump to ascend to the WH were essentially razor thin in the states he won.  The thing the media misses is that those states are pretty still reliable Trump country, but it has turned a lot of other more moderate states off from the rhetoric coming from some areas of the Rust Belt and Heartland which can hurt the GOP there in areas they would otherwise have won.

There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than the #PA18 seat Dems won in March. Dems need to flip 23 to win House.

 

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

In 2018 Trump is in the mid to high 40s and is flat or slightly rising depending on which poll you see.

 

In 2006 the makeup of the legislatures and state maps were very different. In Ohio for example, there are many more safe districts now than 2006.

 

In 2006 the GOP base was uninspired by Bush and were not interested in turning out to support GOP candidates. While the reliable suburban voters turned out in 2006 because they always turn out, the more rural voters stayed home or less educated GOP leaning voters in the exurbs stayed home. The Franklin County GOP who supported Bush turned out regardless.

In 2018 the Trump base is still very energized. They love him in Trump country and while suburban voters are turned off who were solidly the GOP base in 2006, there are a lot more of Trump base to replace disaffected suburban voters like myself and YABO713[/member]  to take our places.

 

I don't think it Is as clear as what the media may be predicting ,although I still think the Dems may take the house, I think the media is still has a bit of a confirmation bias that it is falling into again and reading into things a bit too much and stuck in the echo chamber. At the same time, it is also important to recognize that the forces which allowed Trump to ascend to the WH were essentially razor thin in the states he won.  The thing the media misses is that those states are pretty still reliable Trump country, but it has turned a lot of other more moderate states off from the rhetoric coming from some areas of the Rust Belt and Heartland which can hurt the GOP there in areas they would otherwise have won.

 

This isn't what bore out yesterday though. The rural, pro-Trump precincts did not do as well as expected. It was Delaware County, a Kasich stronghold, that pulled through for Balderson.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

In 2018 Trump is in the mid to high 40s and is flat or slightly rising depending on which poll you see.

 

In 2006 the makeup of the legislatures and state maps were very different. In Ohio for example, there are many more safe districts now than 2006.

 

In 2006 the GOP base was uninspired by Bush and were not interested in turning out to support GOP candidates. While the reliable suburban voters turned out in 2006 because they always turn out, the more rural voters stayed home or less educated GOP leaning voters in the exurbs stayed home. The Franklin County GOP who supported Bush turned out regardless.

In 2018 the Trump base is still very energized. They love him in Trump country and while suburban voters are turned off who were solidly the GOP base in 2006, there are a lot more of Trump base to replace disaffected suburban voters like myself and YABO713[/member]  to take our places.

 

I don't think it Is as clear as what the media may be predicting ,although I still think the Dems may take the house, I think the media is still has a bit of a confirmation bias that it is falling into again and reading into things a bit too much and stuck in the echo chamber. At the same time, it is also important to recognize that the forces which allowed Trump to ascend to the WH were essentially razor thin in the states he won.  The thing the media misses is that those states are pretty still reliable Trump country, but it has turned a lot of other more moderate states off from the rhetoric coming from some areas of the Rust Belt and Heartland which can hurt the GOP there in areas they would otherwise have won.

 

This isn't what bore out yesterday though. The rural, pro-Trump precincts did not do as well as expected. It was Delaware County, a Kasich stronghold, that pulled through for Balderson.

 

I would say that Kasich's endorsement is what did it for him.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

 

That seems like a hell of a stat, that Bush had approval ratings lower than Trump currently does.  Especially considering how strong the economy was in 2006...

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

 

That seems like a hell of a stat, that Bush had approval ratings lower than Trump currently does.  Especially considering how strong the economy was in 2006...

 

I think we were starting to see some strains in the economy in 2006.  Also, two wars will tend to decrease your support too.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

 

That seems like a hell of a stat, that Bush had approval ratings lower than Trump currently does.  Especially considering how strong the economy was in 2006...

 

I mean in applying similar GDP growth in times of peace to other Presidents, Trump SHOULD be polling in the high 60s.

As with today’s indictment of a sitting Representative, I feel that there are more indictments to drop over the next few weeks.  I’m thinking Roger Stone and DJTjr and maybe Jared could be hit with indictments plus some more GOP Reps since they all sold off with the same insider info.  Any of those things happen I just don’t see how Trump keeps his 41% approval rate. 

  Only positive news story I see happening is getting the farm bill passed in early September.  The unnecessary trade war will have more effects in 3 months on most peoples wallets and likely more people will lose their jobs.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

 

That seems like a hell of a stat, that Bush had approval ratings lower than Trump currently does.  Especially considering how strong the economy was in 2006...

 

The Iraq war was going poorly, support was waning. Bush was blamed by the left and right on Iraq. Remember the USA Today add with General Betrayus.

Also, you cant forget about Katrina which was only one year prior. Gas prices surged through the $2.00 gallon threshold which was unheard of before that time.  This really put a lot of pressure on the economy. Also, the early fissures in the housing market were starting to develop at that time.

 

Finally, you also had a lot of Congressional scandals with Tom Delay and other Congrressmen that was frustrating the electorate on the local level (Ohio had the Taft admin and coingate scandal) . You don't have nearly the amount of Congressional scandal now with GOP Congressmen that was going on in 2006. There was a lot more going on besides an unpopular president too.

People compare this to the 2006 cycle but there are some differences.

In 2006 Bush had an approval in the mid to high 30's and was still sinking.

In 2018 Trump is in the mid to high 40s and is flat or slightly rising depending on which poll you see.

 

In 2006 the makeup of the legislatures and state maps were very different. In Ohio for example, there are many more safe districts now than 2006.

 

In 2006 the GOP base was uninspired by Bush and were not interested in turning out to support GOP candidates. While the reliable suburban voters turned out in 2006 because they always turn out, the more rural voters stayed home or less educated GOP leaning voters in the exurbs stayed home. The Franklin County GOP who supported Bush turned out regardless.

In 2018 the Trump base is still very energized. They love him in Trump country and while suburban voters are turned off who were solidly the GOP base in 2006, there are a lot more of Trump base to replace disaffected suburban voters like myself and YABO713[/member]  to take our places.

 

I don't think it Is as clear as what the media may be predicting ,although I still think the Dems may take the house, I think the media is still has a bit of a confirmation bias that it is falling into again and reading into things a bit too much and stuck in the echo chamber. At the same time, it is also important to recognize that the forces which allowed Trump to ascend to the WH were essentially razor thin in the states he won.  The thing the media misses is that those states are pretty still reliable Trump country, but it has turned a lot of other more moderate states off from the rhetoric coming from some areas of the Rust Belt and Heartland which can hurt the GOP there in areas they would otherwise have won.

 

This isn't what bore out yesterday though. The rural, pro-Trump precincts did not do as well as expected. It was Delaware County, a Kasich stronghold, that pulled through for Balderson.

 

But that is exactly my point. In a special election in mid August, you are nto going to draw the reliable but not necessarily motivated voters to the polls. People are on vacation, they simply are not focusing on voting, or they are in the middle of work, they just don't care enough to take time out to vote on a hot summer day. They are more focused on the November voting time frame.

 

This vote reminded me of the special election in OH-2 in 2006. This was to replace a popular Rob Portman who held the seat for about 14 years. It was a very reliable GOP seat with a similar make up to the OH-12.  The Dems ran a Cincinnati attorney who was an Iraq war veteran and moderate views and the GOP had a woman named Jean Schmidt. She was not a strong candidate and had a number of gaffes along the way. It was extremely close. The same candidates met in November for a rematch and it was not as close.

 

This was because a lot of the reliable and uninspired GOP voters sat it out and just did not care. When it was shown the threat was real, they turned out. He still over performed in the district, but even then it was not enough to flip it.

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip?

 

There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than the #PA18 seat Dems won in March. Dems need to flip 23 to win House.

 

Yeah, it says " they might get a bit of a bump and chip away at Trump's margin of victory, but not enough to flip the seats." If Democrats couldn't flip this seat in Ohio, what seats do you think they will flip?

 

There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than the #PA18 seat Dems won in March. Dems need to flip 23 to win House.

 

 

How many of those 68 are in Ohio? And how many of those are essentially on par with OH12? Also, why'd you stop quoting my post at that spot? Was it to purposely remove context in order to make it seem like I wasn't specifically talking about seats in Ohio?

OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

 

OH-10 and OH-14 are equally Republican or less so than OH-12 as well. So there are potentially five seats in play if things stay the same or get worse for the GOP. Not that I think there's any chance that they'd all go Republican, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 3 or 4 of them flip.

I don't see the 10th going Democratic. The district shifted more red for Trump than it had in previous elections (unlike Warren and Hamilton or Franklin and Delaware). Also, Turner is moderate on a lot of things, like he voted against repealing Obamacare (which is possibly the main issue making Republicans vulnerable aside from being the party of an unpopular president).

Dave Joyce in OH-14 also voted against the first Obamacare repeal (AHCA?).

OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

 

Don't see the OH-1 going democratic. It will be a closer race than normal but Chabot will likely win. Too much Warren county to cover to really have a good chance to flip it. Plus, given that Chabot is an incumbent with name recognition, it is harder to upend such candidate with the name recognition. The thing that made OH-12 so competitive is that it was an open seat and neither candidate had the name recognition of an incumbent. This was part of the reason why OH-2 became briefly competitive 12 years earlier.

OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

 

Don't see the OH-1 going democratic. It will be a closer race than normal but Chabot will likely win. Too much Warren county to cover to really have a good chance to flip it. Plus, given that Chabot is an incumbent with name recognition, it is harder to upend such candidate with the name recognition. The thing that made OH-12 so competitive is that it was an open seat and neither candidate had the name recognition of an incumbent. This was part of the reason why OH-2 became briefly competitive 12 years earlier.

 

Balderson was well known state-wide, no?

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ohio-finds-votes-special-elections_us_5b6c0aeae4b0530743c72e77

 

588 uncounted votes were tabulated yesterday.  Balderson's lead is down to 1,564 votes, or 0.8%.  If the absentee and provisional ballots drop that to 0.5% it would trigger on automatic recount.

OH-1 and OH-15 have partisan leans that are less Republican than OH-12.  So there's 3 seats, possibly.

 

OH-10 and OH-14 are equally Republican or less so than OH-12 as well. So there are potentially five seats in play if things stay the same or get worse for the GOP. Not that I think there's any chance that they'd all go Republican, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 3 or 4 of them flip.

 

OH-16 has a PVI of R+8 with no incumbent running.  Unlikely, but crazier things have happened.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

 

OH-1 (Chabot) now listed as a toss-up by Cook Political Report.