April 3, 20223 yr I think Franklin County has hit its population peak. Housing has gotten too expensive for what people get in return in terms of Columbus being an attractive city. I was hoping we could have been like Austin--a "techie" small town that is the state capital, with Cleveland being more like Houston, the "big" city in the state. Three of my friends have left Columbus in the past year for better opportunities--one to Cleveland, one to North Carolina, and one to Austin. Did we peak already?
April 3, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, jcw92 said: I think Franklin County has hit its population peak. Housing has gotten too expensive for what people get in return in terms of Columbus being an attractive city. I was hoping we could have been like Austin--a "techie" small town that is the state capital, with Cleveland being more like Houston, the "big" city in the state. Three of my friends have left Columbus in the past year for better opportunities--one to Cleveland, one to North Carolina, and one to Austin. Did we peak already? No way. Columbus will continue to be a magnet for Ohio and people in the Midwest/Northeast. The best days are still to come in my opinion.
April 3, 20223 yr 10 hours ago, jcw92 said: I think Franklin County has hit its population peak. Housing has gotten too expensive for what people get in return in terms of Columbus being an attractive city. I was hoping we could have been like Austin--a "techie" small town that is the state capital, with Cleveland being more like Houston, the "big" city in the state. Three of my friends have left Columbus in the past year for better opportunities--one to Cleveland, one to North Carolina, and one to Austin. Did we peak already? No. Not even close. The irony of your statement is that 2 of the places you mention friends moving to are much more expensive than Columbus. I keep hearing how people may be moving because of housing costs, but the majority of places elsewhere in the nation have an even higher cost of living and housing costs have been going up rapidly everywhere. Austin has ridiculous housing costs far higher than Columbus, and it doesn't struggle for growth. The Sun Belt is NOT cheaper in most cases, and most of it has a lower quality of life for the price. In general, the places that are cheaper than Columbus are rural with few overall economic opportunities and few amenities. That will only appeal to so many people. Furthermore, we need to stop using anecdotes as evidence of any trends. Columbus- and Franklin County- just saw their fastest-growing decade of all-time, and yet even during that time, ther were also people who moved away. Columbus and the county are nowhere near peak population, and with all the major companies moving to the region, it'll be fine. As I've said before, it's highly unlikely that the census estimates were even accurate to begin with. The area is growing and will continue to grow long into the future. Edited April 3, 20223 yr by jonoh81
April 3, 20223 yr The demand is there. Just gotta build enough housing for everyone. Housing supply is the issue.
April 3, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, jonoh81 said: No. Not even close. The irony of your statement is that 2 of the places you mention friends moving to are much more expensive than Columbus. I keep hearing how people may be moving because of housing costs, but the majority of places elsewhere in the nation have an even higher cost of living and housing costs have been going up rapidly everywhere. Austin has ridiculous housing costs far higher than Columbus, and it doesn't struggle for growth. The Sun Belt is NOT cheaper in most cases, and most of it has a lower quality of life for the price. In general, the places that are cheaper than Columbus are rural with few overall economic opportunities and few amenities. That will only appeal to so many people. Furthermore, we need to stop using anecdotes as evidence of any trends. Columbus- and Franklin County- just saw their fastest-growing decade of all-time, and yet even during that time, ther were also people who moved away. Columbus and the county are nowhere near peak population, and with all the major companies moving to the region, it'll be fine. As I've said before, it's highly unlikely that the census estimates were even accurate to begin with. The area is growing and will continue to grow long into the future. You're right--all three of my friends who moved last year are paying more in rent than they did here. But even if the other places are more expensive to live in, they're considered better with more things to do and its not crazy expensive housing like San Francisco. What I was saying was, if someone is gong to pay a lot for housing, the place better be worth it and Columbus to be honest doesn't have that much to offer. I love Columbus. But I was born here so I know I'm probably biased. But Intel is only coming here because the state is giving them 2 billion dollars. That kind of money definitely influences any company's decisions.
April 3, 20223 yr 26 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: The demand is there. Just gotta build enough housing for everyone. Housing supply is the issue. How do we get more housing fast? Can the city or county build a bunch of units? It could be small, temporary housing while the private sector or 'real' housing gets built.
April 3, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, jcw92 said: How do we get more housing fast? Can the city or county build a bunch of units? It could be small, temporary housing while the private sector or 'real' housing gets built. The biggest thing, IMO, would be to limit the area commissions’ ability to oppose density. So many construction projects have had to decrease the number of units or have been scrapped altogether because of pushback. Also, the city and county offer tax incentives to developers to build affordable housing. And the city is planning on putting another bond issue on the ballot this November to find more affordable housing.
April 3, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, DEPACincy said: The demand is there. Just gotta build enough housing for everyone. Housing supply is the issue. Yep. For all the people who are supposedly moving away, did their homes and apartments stay empty after they left? Vacancy rates remain pretty low.
April 3, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, jcw92 said: You're right--all three of my friends who moved last year are paying more in rent than they did here. But even if the other places are more expensive to live in, they're considered better with more things to do and its not crazy expensive housing like San Francisco. What I was saying was, if someone is gong to pay a lot for housing, the place better be worth it and Columbus to be honest doesn't have that much to offer. I love Columbus. But I was born here so I know I'm probably biased. But Intel is only coming here because the state is giving them 2 billion dollars. That kind of money definitely influences any company's decisions. Considered better by whom, though, and why? Everyone has different wants and needs. I personally would never want to live in places like Texas or Florida, but other people do. Plenty of people enjoy living in Columbus, plenty of people move there. Almost none of my Columbus friends were born there, and half of them are from other countries. My anecdote doesn't prove anything more than yours does, though, that's why we go with the available hard data. Vacancy rates are not rising, housing is in record demand, large companies are moving to the region, the local economy is diverse and strong, and whatever slowdown the pandemic may have caused is ending. When the city finally updates its zoning codes, it should also help to encourage more density throughout the city, which would at least help address increasing demand. You're wrong about Intel. We know at least one other state offered more incentives, so it didn't come down to money alone. There was a specific list of things they needed, and the site they picked met all of them. Given that the investment will likely exceed $100 billion by Intel alone, a $2 billion incentive is a hell of a good deal for the region and state. And it's already paying off in other ways, as not only are other support companies going to build and invest locally for Intel, but there are strong rumors that other tech companies are now looking at either expanding their market presense significantly, or entering the market for the first time with new investments. I still think people are vastly underestimating the local impact this will have on the economy and population. Edited April 3, 20223 yr by jonoh81
April 3, 20223 yr I enjoy reading about Columbus, but I don't really know as much about the demographics there as I do here in Cleveland. The main cause of population decline in cities of Cuyahoga County (outside of Cleveland) was families initially moving, having 2-3 kids, and then the kids growing up and moving out while the parents remain and age in place- decreasing household size basically. In the 2020 census we saw evidence of that trend being reversed, with inner ring suburbs like Shaker Hts having strong growth for the first time in decades as those homes finally turn over and are being filled by new families. My question is - is Columbus starting to enter that stage of its growth where it could start slowing from decreased household size? Obviously its not "landlocked" like Cuyahoga cities in that there are still greenfield areas that can be developed with new housing. There has to come a time though where areas built all around the same time start to naturally decrease in population, without any abandonment. School enrollment is a great harbinger for an area about to start decreasing in population.
April 4, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, PoshSteve said: I enjoy reading about Columbus, but I don't really know as much about the demographics there as I do here in Cleveland. The main cause of population decline in cities of Cuyahoga County (outside of Cleveland) was families initially moving, having 2-3 kids, and then the kids growing up and moving out while the parents remain and age in place- decreasing household size basically. In the 2020 census we saw evidence of that trend being reversed, with inner ring suburbs like Shaker Hts having strong growth for the first time in decades as those homes finally turn over and are being filled by new families. My question is - is Columbus starting to enter that stage of its growth where it could start slowing from decreased household size? I doubt it. Cbus area was one of the few (or only?) areas in the state that had substantially more births than deaths, and I believe Cbus to have a population a bit younger than Cle (although I don’t think it’s a huge gap, IIRC). Ultimately, it would be a bad idea to draw any sort of conclusions from this data one way or another. I am 99% certain we’ll see a several thousand person revision next year. Even the Census Bureau itself urged caution with the data they used for these estimates: ”The Census Bureau does not recommend comparing the 2020 ACS 1-year experimental estimates with our standard ACS estimates or the decennial census, or comparing the 2020 1-year PUMS data with standard pre-tabulated products or PUMS-based estimates from previous years. In addition, because the experimental weighting procedure was designed primarily to produce experimental estimates for states, estimates for PUMAs should be used with caution as the experimental weights are not optimized to produce estimates for these areas.” https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/experimental-2020-acs-1-year-data.html
May 26, 20223 yr Author Columbus grew! As for others major cities in Oh...um...yeah...in "the region" Indy dropped.
February 3, 20232 yr Central Ohio's population now projected to exceed 3 million by 2050, boosted by new economic development projects “The latest modeling projections show a 3.15 million population for the 15-county region, an uptick from previous projections. In 2020, the population was estimated to be about 3 million. That new projection means that over the next 25 years, the Central Ohio region will see 726,000 additional people – or 272,000 additional households and 357,000 additional workers. Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth. The surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations, with Delaware increasing by 80%, and Madison and Licking counties increasing by 30%. Franklin County's population will increase by 26%. Recent growth places Central Ohio among the fastest-growing large metro areas in the country, according to MORPC. Additionally, the region leads the state in growth.” https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2023/02/02/morpc-growth-3-million-central-ohio.html
February 3, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, amped91 said: Central Ohio's population now projected to exceed 3 million by 2050, boosted by new economic development projects “The latest modeling projections show a 3.15 million population for the 15-county region, an uptick from previous projections. In 2020, the population was estimated to be about 3 million. That new projection means that over the next 25 years, the Central Ohio region will see 726,000 additional people – or 272,000 additional households and 357,000 additional workers. Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth. The surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations, with Delaware increasing by 80%, and Madison and Licking counties increasing by 30%. Franklin County's population will increase by 26%. Recent growth places Central Ohio among the fastest-growing large metro areas in the country, according to MORPC. Additionally, the region leads the state in growth.” https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2023/02/02/morpc-growth-3-million-central-ohio.html The city and surrounding towns need to start thinking of how to get builders and workers to the area. We need housing and housing and housing. Hopefully the region can keep up and provide enough housing. Edited February 3, 20232 yr by VintageLife
February 5, 20232 yr On 2/2/2023 at 7:41 PM, amped91 said: Central Ohio's population now projected to exceed 3 million by 2050, boosted by new economic development projects “The latest modeling projections show a 3.15 million population for the 15-county region, an uptick from previous projections. In 2020, the population was estimated to be about 3 million. That new projection means that over the next 25 years, the Central Ohio region will see 726,000 additional people – or 272,000 additional households and 357,000 additional workers. Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth. The surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations, with Delaware increasing by 80%, and Madison and Licking counties increasing by 30%. Franklin County's population will increase by 26%. Recent growth places Central Ohio among the fastest-growing large metro areas in the country, according to MORPC. Additionally, the region leads the state in growth.” https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2023/02/02/morpc-growth-3-million-central-ohio.html One thing I disagree with is the thought that Franklin County will get 50% of that growth. Historically, it's gotten 70% or higher. Not sure why it should get that low of the total.
February 6, 20232 yr 16 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: One thing I disagree with is the thought that Franklin County will get 50% of that growth. Historically, it's gotten 70% or higher. Not sure why it should get that low of the total. We know Licking will now get a larger share of the region’s population growth, but I feel like MORPC has an incredibly high growth projection for Delaware: ”Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth and will welcome more than twice as many newcomers as the next-highest county (Delaware). That said, the six surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations ranging from a 30% increase (Madison and Licking) to 80% (Delaware), compared to 26% for Franklin County.” On a related note, is it next month county level 2022 estimates are released?
February 6, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, amped91 said: We know Licking will now get a larger share of the region’s population growth, but I feel like MORPC has an incredibly high growth projection for Delaware: ”Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth and will welcome more than twice as many newcomers as the next-highest county (Delaware). That said, the six surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations ranging from a 30% increase (Madison and Licking) to 80% (Delaware), compared to 26% for Franklin County.” On a related note, is it next month county level 2022 estimates are released? Hopefully those surrounding counties build proper developments with good density, instead of sprawling everything out. One can dream.
February 6, 20232 yr Not to rain on the parade, but MORPC's projections are notoriously rosy. I don't see any way this actually happens. The United States population is rapidly aging and every demographer believes that population growth will slow greatly without huge increases in immigration. If Columbus adds the same number of people each of the next three decades as they did in the 2010s, a situation that is *highly* unlikely, that would be about 700,000 more residents between 2020 and 2050. I think that is the absolute highest end estimate and assumes a giant increase in migration to the region. A more probable outcome is probably somewhere less than half of that. The Ohio Dept of Development projections, which are the official projections used by the state and more statistically sound, put the Columbus metro at 2.4 million people in 2050, or a growth of 264,000 between 2020 and 2050. Those projections actually show a slight decrease in the metro population between 2040 and 2050.
February 6, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, DEPACincy said: Not to rain on the parade, but MORPC's projections are notoriously rosy. I don't see any way this actually happens. The United States population is rapidly aging and every demographer believes that population growth will slow greatly without huge increases in immigration. If Columbus adds the same number of people each of the next three decades as they did in the 2010s, a situation that is *highly* unlikely, that would be about 700,000 more residents between 2020 and 2050. I think that is the absolute highest end estimate and assumes a giant increase in migration to the region. A more probable outcome is probably somewhere less than half of that. The Ohio Dept of Development projections, which are the official projections used by the state and more statistically sound, put the Columbus metro at 2.4 million people in 2050, or a growth of 264,000 between 2020 and 2050. Those projections actually show a slight decrease in the metro population between 2040 and 2050. The Ohio Department of Development's projections predate multiple very large economic investments in the Columbus "metro". The MORPC metro is 15 counties, not the MSA, and even by the ODD projections will be at 2,711,050 by 2050. The 2.4 is probably for the official MSA. Which, who knows, may be the 15 counties by 2050.
February 6, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, aderwent said: The Ohio Department of Development's projections predate multiple very large economic investments in the Columbus "metro". The MORPC metro is 15 counties, not the MSA, and even by the ODD projections will be at 2,711,050 by 2050. The 2.4 is probably for the official MSA. Which, who knows, may be the 15 counties by 2050. MORPC has Franklin County adding 342,000 by 2050. That's 30% more than the *total* increase for the entire MSA projection by ODD. The MORPC number is just insanely high. To be clear, I'd love to see Columbus get to 3 million plus, or even 4 million plus, by 2050. But it just strains credulity. It has nothing to do with the value of Columbus as a place. It's just basic math. The Boomers are dying. Fertility rates are through the floor. Immigration is nowhere near where it needs to be. It would take massive changes in federal policies to make the MORPC projections a reality. I would love to be wrong though. I guess we'll see in 2050.
February 6, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, DEPACincy said: MORPC has Franklin County adding 342,000 by 2050. That's 30% more than the *total* increase for the entire MSA projection by ODD. The MORPC number is just insanely high. The 342,000 number is right in line with Franklin’s growth this century. I don’t think it’s that wild to project the county’s growth is going to continue on the same trajectory, given all of the economic dev announced for the region last year.
February 6, 20232 yr 12 minutes ago, amped91 said: The 342,000 number is right in line with Franklin’s growth this century. I don’t think it’s that wild to project the county’s growth is going to continue on the same trajectory, given all of the economic dev announced for the region last year. I think when you look at the underlying demographics of the US as a whole it is pretty wild to project that any relatively fast growing city in the US will see the same growth they've seen over the last couple of decades. We are on the precipice of a huge demographic cliff. I would consider closely the fact that the MORPC and ODD projections differ so greatly and ask, which one seems more accurate? The one that exists for state agencies to make plans around services, and is not ever hyped up in the press? Or the one that is totally out of line with what professional demographers believe and is pushed out to the press at every opportunity? MORPC is intentionally vague about their methodology for a reason.
February 6, 20232 yr 5 hours ago, DEPACincy said: The one that exists for state agencies to make plans around services, and is not ever hyped up in the press? I mean the state notoriously undercounts city / state growth and routinely under provisions services. ODOT has been 10 years behind since at least the start of the 2000s. Edited February 7, 20232 yr by atothek
February 7, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, atothek said: I mean the state notoriously undercounts city / state growth and routinely under provisions services. ODOT has been 10 years behind since at least the start of the 2000s. ODOT's big problem is actually that they overshoot traffic projections repeatedly. There's never as much traffic as they predict. That's a problem with the traffic engineering profession generally. But the demographers at ODD are completely different people in a completely different agency with completely different training and have a much better record.
February 7, 20232 yr 23 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: ODOT's big problem is actually that they overshoot traffic projections repeatedly. There's never as much traffic as they predict. That's a problem with the traffic engineering profession generally. But the demographers at ODD are completely different people in a completely different agency with completely different training and have a much better record. It would be interesting to see how accurate they've been, maybe thru Census 2000, 2010 and 2020 if that data is easily available. Don't doubt you at all and would be curious to see past projections about other regions in the state.
February 7, 20232 yr https://devresearch.ohio.gov/files/research/P6090.pdf Above is there population projections starting in 2010 through 2040. They were low on Columbus’ growth by about 30,000 people for 2020. Is that a huge difference? Not really, but I mean it also isn’t sacrosanct. This was the first dataset I could find in like a five second search.
February 7, 20232 yr On 2/5/2023 at 6:14 PM, amped91 said: We know Licking will now get a larger share of the region’s population growth, but I feel like MORPC has an incredibly high growth projection for Delaware: ”Franklin County is expected to absorb half of the regional growth and will welcome more than twice as many newcomers as the next-highest county (Delaware). That said, the six surrounding counties will experience greater growth relative to their current populations ranging from a 30% increase (Madison and Licking) to 80% (Delaware), compared to 26% for Franklin County.” On a related note, is it next month county level 2022 estimates are released? I'm not so sure about that, honestly. They'll be building more in Licking County for sure, but if total growth to the region increases overall, I would still expect the vast majority to still be into Franklin County itself. It has the most housing, the most neighborhood options, the most amenities, the most jobs, etc. All those things will continue to be true going forward, especially in regards to housing. Franklin County will build far, far more residential units than all the other counties combined over the next 20 years. The Census release schedule has been screwed up since Covid began. Normally, there would be significant releases in March and May, but looking at the site's release schedule, nothing is listed at all, so who knows.
February 7, 20232 yr 23 hours ago, DEPACincy said: Not to rain on the parade, but MORPC's projections are notoriously rosy. I don't see any way this actually happens. The United States population is rapidly aging and every demographer believes that population growth will slow greatly without huge increases in immigration. If Columbus adds the same number of people each of the next three decades as they did in the 2010s, a situation that is *highly* unlikely, that would be about 700,000 more residents between 2020 and 2050. I think that is the absolute highest end estimate and assumes a giant increase in migration to the region. A more probable outcome is probably somewhere less than half of that. The Ohio Dept of Development projections, which are the official projections used by the state and more statistically sound, put the Columbus metro at 2.4 million people in 2050, or a growth of 264,000 between 2020 and 2050. Those projections actually show a slight decrease in the metro population between 2040 and 2050. While MORPC's estimates may be rosy, I think the DOD's projections are overly pessimisstic, if not outright ridiculous. Keep in mind that the Columbus metro added almost 237,000 people 2010-2020, so a 264,000-person gain over 3 decades would be an epic slowdown to just 88,000 per decade, or almost a 63% decline per decade. That would be the slowest metro growth since the Great Depression. I just don't see that happening, not with all of the economic momentum with the megaprojects planned and related development. If anything, while the rest of the state may fair a lot worse, Columbus should remain a very bright spot in Ohio and the Midwest.
February 7, 20232 yr 10 hours ago, atothek said: https://devresearch.ohio.gov/files/research/P6090.pdf Above is there population projections starting in 2010 through 2040. They were low on Columbus’ growth by about 30,000 people for 2020. Is that a huge difference? Not really, but I mean it also isn’t sacrosanct. This was the first dataset I could find in like a five second search. So I’ll admit this is based on some rushed math while I’m at work, but it looks like if you assume the same/similar undercounting for Franklin county throughout the provided projection figures, we’d get a number just slightly below the MORPC projections, on a per year basis. And, as you said, these projections were released before all of last year’s economic dev announcements. It looks like Delaware county was also underestimated by a few thousand for 2020. Again, not a huge number, but Delaware is supposed to be one of our fastest growers, on a percentage basis. So if I were to guess, I would say we end up somewhere in between the state and MORPC projections by 2050.
February 7, 20232 yr 11 hours ago, DEPACincy said: ODOT's big problem is actually that they overshoot traffic projections repeatedly. There's never as much traffic as they predict. That's a problem with the traffic engineering profession generally. But the demographers at ODD are completely different people in a completely different agency with completely different training and have a much better record. They don't overestimate traffic because they believe there will be more people, though. They do so to justify the billions they spend building these projects. There's a powerful lobbying effort behind road building, and they inflate usage numbers to keep the grift going.
February 7, 20232 yr 18 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: While MORPC's estimates may be rosy, I think the DOD's projections are overly pessimisstic, if not outright ridiculous. Keep in mind that the Columbus metro added almost 237,000 people 2010-2020, so a 264,000-person gain over 3 decades would be an epic slowdown to just 88,000 per decade, or almost a 63% decline per decade. That would be the slowest metro growth since the Great Depression. I just don't see that happening, not with all of the economic momentum with the megaprojects planned and related development. If anything, while the rest of the state may fair a lot worse, Columbus should remain a very bright spot in Ohio and the Midwest. Their hamilton county prediction for 2030 and 2040 is equally atrocious. After a gain from 802k to 830k we are going to suddenly slip to 790k???? laughable.
February 7, 20232 yr 11 hours ago, atothek said: https://devresearch.ohio.gov/files/research/P6090.pdf Above is there population projections starting in 2010 through 2040. They were low on Columbus’ growth by about 30,000 people for 2020. Is that a huge difference? Not really, but I mean it also isn’t sacrosanct. This was the first dataset I could find in like a five second search. For one county, 30,000 is pretty big. Over the metro area, they were off by just over 40,000.
February 7, 20232 yr 54 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: They don't overestimate traffic because they believe there will be more people, though. They do so to justify the billions they spend building these projects. There's a powerful lobbying effort behind road building, and they inflate usage numbers to keep the grift going. You're absolutely right. Just saying they are different agencies, with different people, and different motivations.
February 7, 20232 yr 32 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: For one county, 30,000 is pretty big. Over the metro area, they were off by just over 40,000. Yes, I think that the ODD projections are going to undershoot Franklin County growth, but probably be very close to correct overall.
February 7, 20232 yr 58 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: While MORPC's estimates may be rosy, I think the DOD's projections are overly pessimisstic, if not outright ridiculous. Keep in mind that the Columbus metro added almost 237,000 people 2010-2020, so a 264,000-person gain over 3 decades would be an epic slowdown to just 88,000 per decade, or almost a 63% decline per decade. That would be the slowest metro growth since the Great Depression. I just don't see that happening, not with all of the economic momentum with the megaprojects planned and related development. If anything, while the rest of the state may fair a lot worse, Columbus should remain a very bright spot in Ohio and the Midwest. I 100% believe the Cbus will continue to be a bright spot in the Midwest. But without huge changes in federal policy there is zero chance we get anywhere close to the growth of the last couple of decades. The demographics of the US and especially the Midwest are just that unfavorable. We are looking at a huge wave of increased deaths over the next couple of decades and a huge slowdown in births (these are already happening but will continue to accelerate). If Cbus gains somewhere around 300k over the next three decades it very well could look huge compared to neighbors, many of whom will see massive population losses. Maybe that will be different if we get a ton of climate refugees from Florida, Arizona, etc.
February 7, 20232 yr Author 35 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: I 100% believe the Cbus will continue to be a bright spot in the Midwest. But without huge changes in federal policy there is zero chance we get anywhere close to the growth of the last couple of decades. The demographics of the US and especially the Midwest are just that unfavorable. We are looking at a huge wave of increased deaths over the next couple of decades and a huge slowdown in births (these are already happening but will continue to accelerate). If Cbus gains somewhere around 300k over the next three decades it very well could look huge compared to neighbors, many of whom will see massive population losses. Maybe that will be different if we get a ton of climate refugees from Florida, Arizona, etc. Columbus has a fairly low average age compared to most of the rest of Ohio. Also the demographics for the Midwest have been unfavorable for a while, and Cbus has grown. We also need to look at what is happening in the rest of the nation-housing costs increasing even more, and we need to seriously look at climate change migration by 2050. And if we start going off a demographic cliff, we can open up-we traditionally have been a nation of immigrants. Look at how many are getting in legally and illegally as it is. We really do not have crystal balls to look at future trends. Remember when in 1970 the demographers were predicting a Hilliard population of 100,000 by the year 2000? We just do not know enough about all of the future variables. That being said, the best predictor of the near future is the near past. Which would be continued high growth for Central Ohio-especially with the job and economic news as of late. We just do not know how great that growth will be. *I also don't see Cincinnati slowing down much if at all. JMHO of course. Of course it won't matter if we don't start building more damn housing!
February 7, 20232 yr 37 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: I 100% believe the Cbus will continue to be a bright spot in the Midwest. But without huge changes in federal policy there is zero chance we get anywhere close to the growth of the last couple of decades. The demographics of the US and especially the Midwest are just that unfavorable. We are looking at a huge wave of increased deaths over the next couple of decades and a huge slowdown in births (these are already happening but will continue to accelerate). If Cbus gains somewhere around 300k over the next three decades it very well could look huge compared to neighbors, many of whom will see massive population losses. Maybe that will be different if we get a ton of climate refugees from Florida, Arizona, etc. Columbus is still relatively young, and it still counts towards almost half of the metro population. I think the aging population will effect the outer counties the most- Perry, Hocking, Morrow- but less so ones like Franklin, Delaware and even Licking. It will also heavily depend on immigration, both domestic and international. I could easily see the region's domestic migration increase over time. It's been the smallest contributor to the metro's growth compared to natural and international, and there's little doubt that more people will be moving to the region based on economic factors alone. International is more iffy. There is so much political nonsense involved with it now, but even so, the international migration rate has grown from an average of about 1500/year in the 1990s to almost 6200/year in the 2010s. Natural growth has been pretty stable. Between the 1990s and 2010s, births increased an average of about 3,932/year. Deaths increased an average of 3,704/year. So birth growth is still outpacing death growth over time. Any influx of domestic or international migration over what already exists could widen that gap more considering those groups tend to be younger outside of retirees, of which Ohio is not generally attracting. I'm not necessarily saying that there can't be any slowdown in growth rates, but I am arguing the factors in play all argue against a 63% drop decade to decade. I fully expect the metro area to hit another 200K+ this decade. Perhaps the 2030s and 2040s will be slower than that, but the average should be well above 88,000.
February 7, 20232 yr I hope you all are right and I'm wrong. My last word on this will be that we haven't really seen anything close to the demographic cliff we are about to face. It is going to be monumental. And there are going to be lots of reverberations throughout the entire national economy. Not enough people are concerned about it IMHO. And I'm an extremely optimistic person usually.
February 7, 20232 yr WFH is going to make things even worse. People need to meet organically -- not just on apps. The nature of apps rely entirely too much on people being outgoing and of secure attachment style. You're not going to meet someone sitting at home on your computer all day. 1984 called that one.
February 8, 20232 yr 16 hours ago, GCrites80s said: WFH is going to make things even worse. People need to meet organically -- not just on apps. The nature of apps rely entirely too much on people being outgoing and of secure attachment style. You're not going to meet someone sitting at home on your computer all day. 1984 called that one. Are most people's friends work colleagues, though?
February 8, 20232 yr 21 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Are most people's friends work colleagues, though? No, but a lot of my friends are people I met tangentially through work.
February 8, 20232 yr You're right. A lot of introverts, shy and anxious people, and transplants need work as a place for some socialization. At least as a starting off point. Not everyone has a hobby or can just go to a bar to meet people. And look at the s**tshow and damage of online dating: Full and hybrid WFH is just making things worse. I don't know the answer or if there even is one.
February 8, 20232 yr 22 hours ago, DEPACincy said: I hope you all are right and I'm wrong. My last word on this will be that we haven't really seen anything close to the demographic cliff we are about to face. It is going to be monumental. And there are going to be lots of reverberations throughout the entire national economy. Not enough people are concerned about it IMHO. And I'm an extremely optimistic person usually. The teenage birthrate is a fraction of what it was in the 1990s: https://www.statista.com/statistics/259518/birth-rate-among-us-teenagers/ If a woman only has one child, and that single child is born when the mother is age 16 versus age 32, it's an entirely different thing. There are many grandparents out there now with fewer grandkids than kids.
February 9, 20232 yr Several things: -Ohio's fertility rate is above that of the U.S. -Fertility rates are on a slight climb post-covid -> anecdotally, almost everyone I know age 25-35 is having kids this year or had one last year -Columbus has a pretty diverse economy -> state government, insurance, universities, probably several other sectors I'm leaving out -Housing shortage is still a thing in the metro area, though with interest rates rising it's harder for people to qualify for housing Imo, a lot of these population projections are just guesses. Even the CBO estimates by the 2040s we will have a net negative natural population growth (births < deaths) for the country and all of our population growth will have to come from net migration. Edited February 9, 20232 yr by DarkandStormy Very Stable Genius
February 9, 20232 yr 22 hours ago, TBideon said: You're right. A lot of introverts, shy and anxious people, and transplants need work as a place for some socialization. At least as a starting off point. Not everyone has a hobby or can just go to a bar to meet people. And look at the s**tshow and damage of online dating: Full and hybrid WFH is just making things worse. I don't know the answer or if there even is one. Even "bars" aren't even bars anymore. The proverbial "meat market" is pretty much over. It's all taprooms where everyone shows up with their couples group and maybe 1-2 single friends. And most hobbies are so gender-segregated anymore it's unbelievable.
February 9, 20232 yr 22 hours ago, Lazarus said: The teenage birthrate is a fraction of what it was in the 1990s: https://www.statista.com/statistics/259518/birth-rate-among-us-teenagers/ If a woman only has one child, and that single child is born when the mother is age 16 versus age 32, it's an entirely different thing. There are many grandparents out there now with fewer grandkids than kids. In China they are talking a near future of "4-2-1" which is 4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 kid that has to take care of all 6. Soon.
February 23, 20232 yr I decided to do all the Near North End neighborhoods. For the University District out of necessity I went over Iuka Ravine in a couple spots, and over the railroad tracks a tiny amount. Wish they'd adjust these Census Blocks. The University District includes Weinland Park. These 2020 numbers mean a lot of missing people. Harrison West is missing all of Founders Park. Italian Village and Weinland Park are missing a smattering of projects since completed and currently under construction. Whole Near North End from 670 to I̵u̵k̵a̵ Glen Echo Ravine between the Olentangy River & the railroad tracks: Population: 70,772 Land Area: 4.60sqmi Density: 15,377ppsm Weighted Density: 55,423ppsm University District: Population: 51,633 Land Area: 3.04sqmi Density: 16,957ppsm Weighted Density: 67,832ppsm Weinland Park: Population: 5,104 Land Area: 0.32sqmi Density: 16,044ppsm Weighted Density: 30,828ppsm Harrison West: Population: 4,498 Land Area: 0.38sqmi Density: 11,700ppsm Weighted Density: 16,279ppsm Victorian Village: Population: 4,872 Land Area: 0.43sqmi Density: 11,444ppsm Weighted Density: 19,534ppsm Italian Village: Population: 4,665 Land Area: 0.43sqmi Density: 10,864ppsm Weighted Density: 20,209ppsm Edited February 23, 20232 yr by aderwent missed a comma
February 23, 20232 yr That is awesome, thanks! "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
February 23, 20232 yr On 2/9/2023 at 10:34 AM, GCrites80s said: In China they are talking a near future of "4-2-1" which is 4 grandparents, 2 parents and 1 kid that has to take care of all 6. Soon. This led to what was called the "little emperor syndrome", where the doting parents and grandparents spoiled the one child rotten.
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