December 26, 20186 yr 43 minutes ago, ink said: Thank you for pulling this together! The population losses between the 1950 and 2017 City of Cleveland boundaries seem too significant. Cleveland's boundaries have grown very little since the 1930s, except for a few annexations from Brook Park for airport expansions. http://northcoastgeo.com/blog/2016/9/29/map-of-city-of-cleveland-land-annexations Yes, Cleveland's 1950 boundary is very similar to its 2017 boundary, meaning that pretty much all of the losses in the city have occurred within the 1950 boundary.
December 26, 20186 yr Author 10 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Yes, Cleveland's 1950 boundary is very similar to its 2017 boundary, meaning that pretty much all of the losses in the city have occurred within the 1950 boundary. I think he may be referring to this: Cleveland 1950 Boundary 2010-2017 Change: -6,000 2017 Cleveland City Boundary 2010-2017 Change: -11,290 If they are the basically the same, then why the discrepancy between these two numbers? Where did the extra 5,290 people come from? Unless I am just misconstruing this and all which is possible...
December 26, 20186 yr 3 hours ago, Toddguy said: I think he may be referring to this: Cleveland 1950 Boundary 2010-2017 Change: -6,000 2017 Cleveland City Boundary 2010-2017 Change: -11,290 If they are the basically the same, then why the discrepancy between these two numbers? Where did the extra 5,290 people come from? Unless I am just misconstruing this and all which is possible... They're similar, but not exactly the same. A large amount of Cleveland's losses seem to be happening on the fringes away from the very core, where neighborhoods like Downtown and UC are doing relatively well. Keep in mind also that the 1950 figures are based on extrapolation. When I said before that using 1950 boundaries was difficult, I meant it. I took every 1950 census tract in Cleveland and had to find all the changes they went through to the present day. A lot of them split up over time. The census provides files on how they changed, but even so, the 2017 1950 figures likely represent a slightly different area size than they did in 1950 itself. While they shouldn't be taken as exact, the numbers are as close as we're ever going to get to find modern-day population numbers for the city that existed in 1950. Edited December 26, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2018/12/26/columbus-surges-as-ohio-wanes-what-to-know-about.html MORPC is estimating that Columbus grew by 22,000 people through this year, surpassing 900,000 (902,674 to be exact). The 2017 Census estimate was just over 879,000. I haven't followed their previous estimates before, so I'm not sure how accurate they are. 22,000 people in 1 year would be a huge jump from last year's 15K+ increase, though, and pretty much the largest single-year increase in the city's history. It would also likely be a top 5 fastest-growing city again. That alone makes me question its validity. They also estimate Franklin County increased by 30,000 in the last year, also a near record. The little over 70% of the county's growth captured within the city is typical of recent years, so at least that would be consistent. In any case, if the 22,000 is even close to real, that would mean Columbus could hit 1 million residents within 5 years. Edit: I checked MORPC's previous estimates through the 2000s... one thing that they've consistently done is undercount versus the Census. In 2017, they estimated the city at just over 861,000 versus the census being at just over 879,000. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr Year-End 2018 MORPC Columbus-area population estimates and change since 2010. Cities, Towns and Villages in Franklin County Bexley: 13,386 +329 Canal Winchester: 8,828 +1,727 Columbus: 902,674 +115,641 Dublin: 49,905 +8,154 Gahanna: 36,075 +2,827 Grandview Heights: 8,483 +1,947 Grove City: 42,400 +6,825 Groveport: 5,687 +504 Hilliard: 38,106 +9,671 Marble Cliff: 587 +14 Minerva Park: 1,557 +285 New Albany: 10,897 +3,173 Obetz: 5,226 +694 Pickerington: 22,443 +4,152 Reynoldsburg: 37,571 +1,678 Riverlea: 569 +24 Upper Arlington: 35,555 +1,784 Urbancrest: 991 +31 Valleyview: 635 +15 Westerville: 39,955 +3,835 Whitehall: 18,531 +469 Worthington: 14,440 +865 Cities, Towns and Villages in Other Counties Delaware: 39,937 +5,184 Lancaster: 40,888 +2,108 Lithopolis: 1,545 +439 Marysville: 24,224 +2,130 Pataskala: 17,565 +2,603 Plain City: 4,460 +235 Powell: 14,464 +2,964 Sunbury: 5,457 +1,068 Counties Delaware: 208,0687 +33,853 Fairfield: 157,799 +12,875 Franklin: 1,318,164 +154,750 Hocking: 28,586 -794 Licking: 175,755 +9,842 Madison: 44,609 +1,174 Morrow: 34,969 +157 Perry: 36,172 +114 Pickaway: 58,339 +2,641 Union: 58,285 +5,985
December 27, 20186 yr Author ^^ Dang. Where are they putting all of these people? There just does not seem to have been enough new construction to handle over 150,000 more people in Franklin County since 2010. Is there a link to those numbers you posted? I can't find anything for those 2018 MORPC numbers and was curious about a few other places not on your list. Impressive numbers for Grandview Heights, which may reach 10,000 when all the infill is completed I think. And Obetz! is now a city at over 5,000. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by Toddguy
December 27, 20186 yr 9 hours ago, jonoh81 said: Year-End 2018 MORPC Columbus-area population estimates and change since 2010. Cities, Towns and Villages in Franklin County Bexley: 13,386 +329 13,786 -400 Canal Winchester: 8,828 +1,727 8,294 +534 Columbus: 902,674 +115,641 879,170 +23,504 Dublin: 49,905 +8,154 47,619 +1,386 Gahanna: 36,075 +2,827 35,297 +778 Grandview Heights: 8,483 +1,947 7,778 +705 Grove City: 42,400 +6,825 41,022 +1,378 Groveport: 5,687 +504 5,621 +66 Hilliard: 38,106 +9,671 35,935 +2,171 Marble Cliff: 587 +14 683 -96 Minerva Park: 1,557 +285 1,321 +231 New Albany: 10,897 +3,173 10,781 +116 Obetz: 5,226 +694 4,967 +259 Pickerington: 22,443 +4,152 20,402 +2,041 Reynoldsburg: 37,571 +1,678 37,847 -276 Riverlea: 569 +24 566 +3 Upper Arlington: 35,555 +1,784 35,337 +218 Urbancrest: 991 +31 1,001 -10 Valleyview: 635 +15 638 -3 Westerville: 39,955 +3,835 39,737 +218 Whitehall: 18,531 +469 18,913 -382 Worthington: 14,440 +865 14,646 -206 Cities, Towns and Villages in Other Counties Delaware: 39,937 +5,184 39,267 +670 Lancaster: 40,888 +2,108 40,280 +600 Lithopolis: 1,545 +439 1,573 -28 Marysville: 24,224 +2,130 23,912 +312 Pataskala: 17,565 +2,603 15,566 +1,999 Plain City: 4,460 +235 4,379 +81 Powell: 14,464 +2,964 13,204 +1,260 Sunbury: 5,457 +1,068 5,293 +164 Counties Delaware: 208,0687 +33,853 200,464 +7,604 Fairfield: 157,799 +12,875 154,733 +3,066 Franklin: 1,318,164 +154,750 1,291,981 +26,183 Hocking: 28,586 -794 28,474 +112 Licking: 175,755 +9,842 173,448 +2,307 Madison: 44,609 +1,174 44,036 +573 Morrow: 34,969 +157 34,994 -25 Perry: 36,172 +114 36,024 +148 Pickaway: 58,339 +2,641 57,830 +509 Union: 58,285 +5,985 56,741 +1,544 I decided to go through and look at the population change over the last year for each of the listed areas. I added the 2017 population and the 2017-2018 change in bold red font above. I understand these comparisons might not be spot on because I'm assuming the MORPC and the Census Bureau have slightly different methodologies. Regardless, it gives us a pretty good picture of which areas have experienced a great deal of growth in just the last year. Pickerington's growth really stood out to me. They added ~4k people between 2010 and 2018, with ~2k of that growth coming in the last year.
December 27, 20186 yr Author ^^ I am glad that some of you like you and jonoh81 go through the trouble of calculating these things and posting them for us. *I admit I am tempted to keep the *booster bro* thing going and post a thread like "COLUMBUS HITS 900,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME!!!!" just to troll other cities...but I will restrain myself out of respect for Mr. Renn and the board here and instead go over once again all of the shortcomings and things that need improved in Columbus lol. NO LIGHT RAIL! what a disgrace!!!! .... Edited December 27, 20186 yr by Toddguy No light rail, bad airport, no identity, generic, suburban, cows, giant concrete ears of corn, overgrown college town, too many hillfolk, etc. etc.
December 27, 20186 yr 6 hours ago, Toddguy said: ^^ Dang. Where are they putting all of these people? There just does not seem to have been enough new construction to handle over 150,000 more people in Franklin County since 2010. There was so much overbuilding in subdivision areas during the 2000s that it took until 2015-2016 to catch up. Almost all of the housing that went up from 2009 until very recently was apartment buildings or single-family houses that people bought before they were built. Also, people moved into units from all eras that were at say 70% occupancy in the '90s. Take a look at Lancaster. It has added 10,000 people in the past 15 years but only one subdivision was added. Instead, people moved into existing structures that hadn't seen love in a while. Want a house that still is totally '70s inside? Get thee to Lancaster! Edited December 27, 20186 yr by GCrites80s
December 27, 20186 yr 1 hour ago, cbussoccer said: I decided to go through and look at the population change over the last year for each of the listed areas. I added the 2017 population and the 2017-2018 change in bold red font above. I understand these comparisons might not be spot on because I'm assuming the MORPC and the Census Bureau have slightly different methodologies. Regardless, it gives us a pretty good picture of which areas have experienced a great deal of growth in just the last year. Pickerington's growth really stood out to me. They added ~4k people between 2010 and 2018, with ~2k of that growth coming in the last year. I think you have to use the MORPC numbers given the different methodologies and to be consistent. Here they were for 2017-2018 Bexley: +124 Canal Winchester: +157 Columbus: +21,847 Dublin: +1,405 Gahanna: +367 Grandview Heights: +632 Grove City: +905 Groveport: +74 Hilliard: +1,043 Marble Cliff: +5 Minerva Park: +200 New Albany: +193 Obetz: +164 Pickerington: +1,223 Reynoldsburg: +436 Riverlea: +5 Upper Arlington: +392 Valleyview: +6 Westerville: +1,367 Whitehall: +166 Worthington: +155 Delaware: +723 Lancaster: +497 Lithopolis: +53 Marysville: +665 Pataskala: +390 Plain City: +294 Powell: +226 Sunbury: +238 Counties Delaware: +4,076 Fairfield: +2,877 Franklin: +29,818 Hocking: +263 Licking: +1,864 Madison: +1,433 Morrow: +11 Perry: -10 Pickaway: +144 Union: +1,563
December 27, 20186 yr 9 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: There was so much overbuilding in subdivision areas during the 2000s that it took until 2015-2016 to catch up. Almost all of the housing that went up from 2009 until very recently was apartment buildings or single-family houses that people bought before they were built. Also, people moved into units from all eras that were at say 70% occupancy in the '90s. Take a look at Lancaster. It has added 10,000 people in the past 15 years but only one subdivision was added. Instead, people moved into existing structures that hadn't seen love in a while. Want a house that still is totally '70s inside? Get thee to Lancaster! Yes, in Columbus many areas that previously had high vacancy rates are filling up quickly. South Linden, for example, saw one of the top 10 influxes of young adults of any neighborhood in the city since 2010. There are few areas in the city that have not seen growth. However, that situation can only last so long. Developers have to like quadruple the construction just to keep up, according to recent studies. Either prices are going to skyrocket over the next several years, or the pace of building will have to. The current market of high growth, low construction is a big problem going forward. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr 4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Yes, in Columbus many areas that previously had high vacancy rates are filling up quickly. South Linden, for example, saw one of the top 10 influxes of young adults of any neighborhood in the city since 2010. There are few areas in the city that have not seen growth. However, that situation can only last so long. Developers have to like quadruple the construction just to keep up, according to recent studies. Either prices are going to skyrocket over the next several years, or the pace of building will have to. The current market of high growth, low construction is a big problem going forward. Although I agree we need to build more, we're building more now and in the last 5 years sans 2015 than we did in the peak of 2007:
December 27, 20186 yr 10 minutes ago, aderwent said: Although I agree we need to build more, we're building more now and in the last 5 years sans 2015 than we did in the peak of 2007: Yes, but the city is also growing significantly faster than in the 2000s. The average growth rate this decade is at least 2x what it was in the 2000s, and the last year's is 3x faster. I don't have the link, but there was just a study released that Columbus has a serious housing crisis on its hands because construction is well below population growth. The level of infill is historically high, but even so, it's not nearly enough. That's why reductions in size drive me nuts. Local developers are making the problem worse by underbuilding in prime locations. Worse, NIMBYers like with the recent fiasco in Victorian Village with the Kaufmann project are getting in the way. The city needs to overall its entire zoning plan, IMO, to allow for greater densities across the board. Columbus is not at all prepared for a significant, sustained boom, and it's clearly entering one. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr It's tough to build enough quickly enough with the current size of the skilled labor pool.
December 27, 20186 yr 10 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: It's tough to build enough quickly enough with the current size of the skilled labor pool. Yes, but I've also heard that local banks have consistently been stingy with financing, and developers themselves have also taken a rather doubtful view of the local market, in that neither think that it can support more than they're already doing. It seems that they don't really believe the growth or demand. We have seen a ramp up in the last few years of project sizes, from 4-5 stories consistently to more and more larger projects being proposed. So that might be changing finally, but it's still an issue. That project on the Swan Cleaners site in Downtown that was recently reduced in size by the developer is a good example. There is absolutely no reason for that. The demand is there, so it's either the developer doesn't have the financing or they don't believe in the market. This is why Columbus desperately needs some more out-of-town developers. There aren't many locals willing or able to go big. The housing issue clearly has multiple origins. One thing the city can do is change zoning rules to allow for greater density, if not demand it. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr 54 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Yes, but I've also heard that local banks have consistently been stingy with financing, and developers themselves have also taken a rather doubtful view of the local market, in that neither think that it can support more than they're already doing. It seems that they don't really believe the growth or demand. We have seen a ramp up in the last few years of project sizes, from 4-5 stories consistently to more and more larger projects being proposed. So that might be changing finally, but it's still an issue. That project on the Swan Cleaners site in Downtown that was recently reduced in size by the developer is a good example. There is absolutely no reason for that. The demand is there, so it's either the developer doesn't have the financing or they don't believe in the market. This is why Columbus desperately needs some more out-of-town developers. There aren't many locals willing or able to go big. The housing issue clearly has multiple origins. One thing the city can do is change zoning rules to allow for greater density, if not demand it. Lately, even with projects we have been working on, scale backs and material changes are more profit driven than demand driven. The situation I've noticed is that developers absolutely can go bigger, but when a developer decided to go bigger they tend to want to VE with materials. When devs VE materials, they run into issues with commissions, with commission issues comes delay and delays incur costs because every day a lot sits without a tenant is lost profit. The cycle is one that developers well understand which means they're going smaller, because in the end, smaller developments cost less, get built quicker, and profits sooner. Most of their thumping relates them wanting to pass through approvals easier. Personally, it often seems that the developers answer to supply and demand is 'Build just enough units to keep the market strong, but never enough to cause a drop in profits/rent'. Until smaller developments are seen as lost profit, this is where we will sit. It's slowly changing but not as quick as it should/could be.
December 27, 20186 yr 10 minutes ago, tlb919 said: Lately, even with projects we have been working on, scale backs and material changes are more profit driven than demand driven. The situation I've noticed is that developers absolutely can go bigger, but when a developer decided to go bigger they tend to want to VE with materials. When devs VE materials, they run into issues with commissions, with commission issues comes delay and delays incur costs because every day a lot sits without a tenant is lost profit. The cycle is one that developers well understand which means they're going smaller, because in the end, smaller developments cost less, get built quicker, and profits sooner. Most of their thumping relates them wanting to pass through approvals easier. Personally, it often seems that the developers answer to supply and demand is 'Build just enough units to keep the market strong, but never enough to cause a drop in profits/rent'. Until smaller developments are seen as lost profit, this is where we will sit. It's slowly changing but not as quick as it should/could be. I think part of that is because a lot of the local development companies tend to be on the small side. Maximizing profit is always going to be something a business wants, but I think squeezing every dollar out of every project is going to be much more important for the local, small-scale developer than a national or regional one that might focus more on big returns from bigger projects. I've also heard a lot of complaining about the approvals process, which I think is both a mix of NIMBYism and unrealistically strict zoning codes that require variances for any type of urban characteristic (like height or reduced parking). Those zoning codes need to be updated, especially along commercial corridors. But there need to also be minimum height restrictions in some places like Downtown. There should be no reason we are still seeing 5-6 stories on main corridors like High or Broad. The city has codes that merely "encourage" higher densities, but that's just not enough. Edited December 27, 20186 yr by jonoh81
December 27, 20186 yr Is "Booster Bro" the new "Fake News?" "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
December 27, 20186 yr 6 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: I could use a picture of this archetype for identification purposes.
December 28, 20186 yr "Hi, I'm Tom. I'm your first friend in Columbus. You can unfriend me or stay friends to receive updates about Columbus. Our population is growing out of control and there's all sorts of fun, exciting developments going up around town. I take it your hometowns such as Stryker and Portsmouth are looking pretty sad by this time. Not Columbus!"
January 15, 20196 yr Not sure if anyone here ever jumps over to Columbus Navigator, it's a pretty surface site but they have recently been a nice reprieve from the CU/Walker Evans dominated Columbus info stream. Anyway, yesterday they posted a pretty interesting article that takes a fairly realistic look at Columbus and some major issues it faces and the road it took to get where it is today. Overall its not the deepest article but it is a nice realistic look at some conversations that absolutely need to be happening in terms of transit, housing, image, and growth. Enjoy. Columbus Is Booming, Ready or Not. https://www.columbusnavigator.com/ready-or-not-columbus-is-booming/
January 31, 20196 yr https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2019/01/31/columbus-must-revolutionize-our-transit.html This is exactly the kind of problem I'm always talking about with Columbus. The headline talks about revolutionizing transit in Columbus, but then just about all of the article talks about getting people from personal cars into other types... of cars. WTF? And why the hell is Rick Ricart part of the discussion on transit? His family is all about cars. They're literally car salespeople. What does he even know about transit? They talk about car-sharing as good for transit, but it's literally the opposite. Car sharing actually means people use real transit less, and it's not even affordable to everyone- certainly not as a way to commute every day. Arrrrrrggghhhh….
January 31, 20196 yr That article was hard to read and digest, while I appreciate the notion that roads don't need to be wider and multimodal solutions like bike and scooters should be given equal space, I hate this last comment "It’s going to take all of us working together to solve these challenges,” Arseneault said “How do we make sure nobody is left behind?” Here's the deal, every major city has managed to figure out how to begin solving these issues and it's mass transit. The city leaders keep sitting around with their fingers in their ears screaming "lalalala" whenever this comes up. MASS F*CKING TRANSIT is the only real option. True BRT, Lightrail, Streetcar, between destinations and job centers. Why have people in this city not held leaders more accountable? Chasing autonomous dreams only keeps proving the lack of viability in any near future. Columbus need a true organized effort because this has gotten absolutely absurd.
January 31, 20196 yr 15 minutes ago, DevolsDance said: That article was hard to read and digest, while I appreciate the notion that roads don't need to be wider and multimodal solutions like bike and scooters should be given equal space, I hate this last comment "It’s going to take all of us working together to solve these challenges,” Arseneault said “How do we make sure nobody is left behind?” Here's the deal, every major city has managed to figure out how to begin solving these issues and it's mass transit. The city leaders keep sitting around with their fingers in their ears screaming "lalalala" whenever this comes up. MASS F*CKING TRANSIT is the only real option. True BRT, Lightrail, Streetcar, between destinations and job centers. Why have people in this city not held leaders more accountable? Chasing autonomous dreams only keeps proving the lack of viability in any near future. Columbus need a true organized effort because this has gotten absolutely absurd. Yeah, they've gone from talking about autonomous as a solution for "last mile" travel to talking about it as an entire transportation system in and of itself, which is not really what it's meant to be. It's meant to be a safer alternative to the personal car, but it is still basically a personal car. Fundamentally, very little changes with the technology. As usual, the city is coasting on the thoughts and prayers version of mass transportation, just as it does on development. The fact that a literal used car salesman is a spokesman for transit in Columbus says a lot. Talk about a conflict of interest. If a million more people do end up in the Columbus area the next few decades- and I have no reason to believe they won't- the city's in real trouble. Edited January 31, 20196 yr by jonoh81
January 31, 20196 yr "Biggest American city without mass transit rail" is the type of marketing slogan you don't just want to give up, though. EDIT - rail, not transit. Edited January 31, 20196 yr by DarkandStormy Very Stable Genius
January 31, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, DarkandStormy said: "Biggest American city without mass transit" is the type of marketing slogan you don't just want to give up, though. I mean, that's kind of a misnomer anyway because buses do count as mass transit, just not the kind most people associate with the term. I think even implementing a large-scale BRT system would be great and a real step forward, but they couldn't even do that right. The Cleveland Avenue CMax line is a joke. I just read how they are considering that for Broad Street, but I am very worried it will end up the same way.
January 31, 20196 yr I'd hope they'd at the very least make it like the Cleveland State Line along Clifton in Cleveland, if not going full HealthLine. Lord knows Broad is wide enough to put dedicated transit lanes along it. “To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”
January 31, 20196 yr 4 minutes ago, BigDipper 80 said: I'd hope they'd at the very least make it like the Cleveland State Line along Clifton in Cleveland, if not going full HealthLine. Lord knows Broad is wide enough to put dedicated transit lanes along it. Broad is wide enough for all of that and a lane filled with water for yachts. Like holy effing god that street is ridiculously wide....almost absurdly so. Yet the bike lanes still aren't protected.
January 31, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, BigDipper 80 said: I'd hope they'd at the very least make it like the Cleveland State Line along Clifton in Cleveland, if not going full HealthLine. Lord knows Broad is wide enough to put dedicated transit lanes along it. So was Cleveland Avenue had they done it correctly. But they prioritized cars in that case.
January 31, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: I mean, that's kind of a misnomer anyway because buses do count as mass transit, just not the kind most people associate with the term. I think even implementing a large-scale BRT system would be great and a real step forward, but they couldn't even do that right. The Cleveland Avenue CMax line is a joke. I just read how they are considering that for Broad Street, but I am very worried it will end up the same way. Sorry, I meant to say rail, not transit. I posted this over in the COTA thread, but sort of applies here as well (mods - if the expletive is too much, please delete and I'll repost with a link): I understand this is just something someone sketched together and might not serve as the best model, but you get the idea. Not a lot involved in terms of tearing up existing roads/land, though you'd have to add commuter tracks alongside the existing rail lines that are used for freight - I don't think you can share them. As it is with this mock up, you do leave most of northeast Columbus and Linden several miles from any rail, so that would be an area to consider. Of course, I don't think this is even a serious proposal but just giving us an idea of what could be. Very Stable Genius
February 6, 20196 yr Author Hell if we could just get some REAL BRT around town and at least a light rail line from downtown to the airport and up to Easton I could die happy. I really think that a real(as in really good and improved state of the art) bus system with BRT that we could convince people to ride would be the biggest thing we can do regarding public transit for our urban area population. I just don't see that many areas where we can feasibly implement light rail and have the accompanying density to make it work given our city layout and the intractable NIMBYS that would fight to the death to stop any needed increase in density in their areas. All the transit fantasy maps are nice, but are just that-fantasy. I would like to see a map (including some realistic light rail lines that would not be money pits or "boutique" lines) with BRT that might actually have a chance of getting implemented. It would be nice to include areas that could be upzoned for greater density to help support these lines as well.
February 6, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Toddguy said: Hell if we could just get some REAL BRT around town and at least a light rail line from downtown to the airport and up to Easton I could die happy. I really think that a real(as in really good and improved state of the art) bus system with BRT that we could convince people to ride would be the biggest thing we can do regarding public transit for our urban area population. I just don't see that many areas where we can feasibly implement light rail and have the accompanying density to make it work given our city layout and the intractable NIMBYS that would fight to the death to stop any needed increase in density in their areas. All the transit fantasy maps are nice, but are just that-fantasy. I would like to see a map (including some realistic light rail lines that would not be money pits or "boutique" lines) with BRT that might actually have a chance of getting implemented. It would be nice to include areas that could be upzoned for greater density to help support these lines as well. Transit should not just be built for current conditions, but also to prepare for future growth. Maps like that are meant to show full buildout, anyway. Any system has to start somewhere, though.
February 7, 20196 yr Author 12 hours ago, jonoh81 said: Transit should not just be built for current conditions, but also to prepare for future growth. Maps like that are meant to show full buildout, anyway. Any system has to start somewhere, though. The problem is that current conditions often dictate future conditions, as in well established single family home neighborhoods(think Clintonville for the ultimate example)are not just going to disappear in the future. Most of Columbus is designed and built out for the car and that is something that we have to deal with, and current conditions will likely guide where future growth(especially TOD)will occur. This region(most areas of it anyway)will have problems with the upzoning and densification needed to make any dense transit system, especially a fixed in place one like light rail, able to be implemented. I hope I am wrong, but this is Columbus and all lol. We have problems when it comes to "the big picture" as you have noted. I would love to be wrong on this of course. We need a strong leader, a regional leader, something like a Coleman/Wexner hybrid mix to push for things like this and there is none such person to be seen, IMO. Another thing we lack that I will note even though a certain "lover of cities" thinks we are all mindless booster bro's and all. ? Edited February 7, 20196 yr by Toddguy grammar, spelling, etc-I am sick and on antibiotics and meds and it is messing with my head
February 22, 20196 yr Transit can be built in reaction to something or it can be built to shape something in the future. The most successful transit lines incorporate a little bit of both, like this photo of Queen Boulevard at Rawson Street station in the Sunnyside section of Queens in 1917. Sure, the transit line was built to shape the urban form of Queens, but it was done in reaction to decades of New York City's phenomenal growth, which was expected to continue. Meanwhile, on to Columbus-specific news...... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 18, 20196 yr Author So... Franklin County grew by 14, 594. If trends have continued, maybe 9,000 were within Columbus itself, which would take Cbus to about 888,000, from 879,170. San Francisco County/city was at 884,363, but looks to have been downgraded to 883, 305(grew by over 4,000 but adjusted back to 879,166 for 2017. Mecklenburg County North Carolina (which Charlotte is entirely within) grew by 16, 590. Charlotte was at 859, 035 in 2017, so if these stand, Charlotte could not have passed Columbus. Tarrant County Texas (Fort Worth and some in adjacent counties) grew by 27,463, so with Fort Worth at 874, 168, it is likely it passed Columbus. So if Cbus really did get passed by Fort Worth, but edged ahead of San Francisco, it remains in 14 place???? We shall see. *Franklin County and the immediately adjacent counties all grew, by a total of 23,930. Cbus metro growth of 24,066. Total Ohio growth was 25.303. Edited April 18, 20196 yr by Toddguy
April 18, 20196 yr So the whole metro grew by only 2,000 more than all of Franklin County last year. Seems under counted. Probably due to lack of housing starts. Actual growth has not slowed that much.
April 18, 20196 yr 26 minutes ago, Toddguy said: So... Franklin County grew by 14, 594. If trends have continued, maybe 9,000 were within Columbus itself, which would take Cbus to about 888,000, from 879,170. San Francisco County/city was at 884,363, but looks to have been downgraded to 883, 305(grew by over 4,000 but adjusted back to 879,166 for 2017. Mecklenburg County North Carolina (which Charlotte is entirely within) grew by 16, 590. Charlotte was at 859, 035 in 2017, so if these stand, Charlotte could not have passed Columbus. Tarrant County Texas (Fort Worth and some in adjacent counties) grew by 27,463, so with Fort Worth at 874, 168, it is likely it passed Columbus. So if Cbus really did get passed by Fort Worth, but edged ahead of San Francisco, it remains in 14 place???? We shall see. *Franklin County and the immediately adjacent counties all grew, by a total of 23,930. Cbus metro growth of 24,066. Total Ohio growth was 25.303. I couldn't care less about city limits numbers. Even MSA numbers don't get me too excited. I'm most excited about urban area growth. Unfortunately the Census Bureau only releases those numbers for official censuses. So unless you want to put in a ton of time manually adding it up you're going to have to wait a couple years to see those numbers. I've thought about doing it for just Columbus, but then I wouldn't have anything to compare it to; other than itself.
April 18, 20196 yr Author 18 minutes ago, aderwent said: So the whole metro grew by only 2,000 more than all of Franklin County last year. Seems under counted. Probably due to lack of housing starts. Actual growth has not slowed that much. No-look again. Franklin County grew by 14,594. The metro grew by 24,066. And if most of the growth is in Franklin County, it is probably going into the urban area as well(probably some of Delaware County growth as well)which is an important thing to consider. The city and the region seem to be holding there own, which is the most important thing, especially considering some surprisingly low growth in other metros. * I am sure jonoh81 can do a really good analysis of all of these things if he decided to. Edited April 18, 20196 yr by Toddguy
April 18, 20196 yr Just now, Toddguy said: No-look again. Franklin County grew by 14,594. The metro grew by 24,066. And if most of the growth is in Franklin County, it is probably going into the urban area as well(probably some of Delaware County growth as well)which is an important thing to consider. The city and the region seem to be holding there own, which is the most important thing, especially considering some surprisingly low growth in other metros. Last year Franklin County alone grew by 22,000.
April 18, 20196 yr Author 16 minutes ago, aderwent said: Last year Franklin County alone grew by 22,000. Please check your sources. Unless you are referring to the year before. "The fastest growing counties in Ohio last year were Franklin County (up 14,594 to just over 1.3 million) and Delaware County just north of Franklin (up 4,284 to 204,826)" https://expo.cleveland.com/news/g66l-2019/04/6d0312c650133/cuyahoga-countys-population-drop-9th-worst-in-the-us-last-year-new-census-estimates-say.html The data was just released to the public today. And we still are doing well compared to other metros and counties looking at the new data. Edited April 18, 20196 yr by Toddguy
April 18, 20196 yr On 3/26/2018 at 1:36 PM, Toddguy said: Well I searched and did not see any thread for this particular area and there is one for Cleveland, so maybe we can use this one for Columbus without having any problems with any city vs city stuff and just talk about our own area? I am impressed with the growth-over 31,000 for the metro in only one year and something like 22,000 for Franklin County. I just wonder how much of that number will be in Cbus city limits? https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk 22,000 in last year's released numbers for just Franklin County.
April 18, 20196 yr Author 1 hour ago, aderwent said: 22,000 in last year's released numbers for just Franklin County. I can't remember...was that after being adjusted? *will try and check* Okay it apparently was not so and (like many areas) we are down a bit from last year. We edged out in MSA raw numbers Portland, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose(last two should be one of course), and were about tied with Sacramento, and only about 4,000 behind Raleigh-Durham and only about 6,000 behind Nashville. Not so bad really. We were about half of Austin, Las Vegas, and Charlotte. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk# Edited April 18, 20196 yr by Toddguy
April 18, 20196 yr You guys are talking about different estimates, from MORPC and the Census. They do estimates for different time periods. MORPC: Estimates go from January-January Total City Population for Columbus 2010: 787,033 2011: 792,225 2012: 797,322 2013: 805,348 2014: 817,383 2015: 829,690 2016: 838,912 2017: 861,141 2018: 880,828 2019: 902,674 Total Population Change By Year 2010-11: +5,192 11-12: +5,097 12-13: +8,026 13-14: +12,035 14-15: +12,307 15-16: +19,222 16-17: +22,229 17-18: +19,687 18-19: +21,846 Average Annual Growth: +12,429 Obviously, MORPC has significantly increased the rate of growth over the last decade, being at times 4x faster now than at the beginning. That raises some suspicion, in that I think part of the reason for the increase was that they were far too low at the beginning, and are attempting to catch up to real growth rates. They are also likely trying to match them with their projection that the area will add another 1 million people by 2050. Meanwhile, here are the Census figures for Columbus' city population, which run from July 1-July 1. 2010: 787,033 2011: 800,388 2012: 812,275 2013: 825,906 2014: 839,646 2015: 852,305 2016: 863,741 2017: 879,170 And Total Change by Year 2010-11: +13,355 11-12: +11,887 12-13: +13,631 13-14: +13,740 14-15: +12,659 15-16: +11,436 16-17: +15,429 Average Annual Growth: +13,162 The Census numbers show far more consistent growth over the decade than MORPC, and we don't have 2018 and 2019 yet from the Census, either. Still, let's compare the numbers through 2017. Difference between the Census and MORPC Estimated Population by Year 2010: 0 2011: +8,163 2012: +14,953 2013: +20,558 2014: +22,263 2015: +22,615 2016: +24,829 2017: +18,029 The Census figures tend to be far ahead of the MORPC numbers, but it's hard to compare directly due to the fact that the start and end times for the estimates are 6 months apart. It seems that they're pretty close if one uses compares them 1 year apart. However, the average annual growth rate with both is fairly similar- +12,429 with MORPC vs +13,162 with the Census. This suggest the estimates are in the same ballpark for growth. One interesting thing to note, though, is that both MORPC and the Census estimates were too low vs the actual 2010 count, so there's been recent history of undercounting Columbus' city growth. In all likelihood, Columbus' current population is well past the 900K mark, and I would suggest that MORPC's January 2019 estimate is even probably a good 10K-15K too low. Given that we are just a year away from the 2020 Census, and 2 years away from seeing the results of that, I would not be surprised at all to see 2020's city population in the neighborhood of 930K-945K. Edited April 18, 20196 yr by jonoh81
April 18, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, Toddguy said: *Franklin County and the immediately adjacent counties all grew, by a total of 23,930. Cbus metro growth of 24,066. Total Ohio growth was 25.303. And Hamilton, Butler, Warren, and Clermont Counties around Cincinnati grew a combined 10,264 this year. Added to the Cbus metro number that is a combined 34,330. So the net for the rest of Ohio was -9,027.
April 18, 20196 yr Here were the MORPC and Census Franklin County estimates. The same ideas/rules apply here as with the city numbers. MORPC 2010: 1,163,414 2011: 1,169,407 2012: 1,175,979 2013: 1,186,955 2014: 1,200,469 2015: 1,215,381 2016: 1,231,148 2017: 1,253,522 2018: 1,288,346 2019: 1,318,175 Change 2010-11: +5993 11-12: +6,572 12-13: +10,976 13-14: +13,514 14-15: +14,912 15-16: +15,767 16-17: +22,374 17-18: +34,824 18-19: +29,829 Average Annual Change: +17,196 Census 2010: 1,163,414 2011: 1,180,741 2012: 1,199,071 2013: 1,218,985 2014: 1,238,527 2015: 1,257,552 2016: 1,274,580 2017: 1,295,706 2018: 1,310,300 Change 2010-11: +17,327 11-12: +18,330 12-13: +19,914 13-14: +19,542 14-15: +19,025 15-16: +17,028 16-17: +21,126 17-18: +14,594 Average Annual Change: +18,361 IMO, 2018's estimate is very low. It's a significant decrease from all previous years this decade, and doesn't make any rational sense given everything else we know. Related to that, all other years actually saw estimate increases by as much as 2,000 annually from the 2017 estimate, so the Census is basically conceding Franklin County is being undercounted. 2018's number, though, is a good 3K-5K too low and should be closer to the annual average that it's been at for some time. My 2020 estimate for Franklin County is between 1.35 and 1.36 million. Edited April 18, 20196 yr by jonoh81
April 30, 20196 yr According to this Reddit post as of 2017 only 36,041 of 88,358 new Columbus residents since 2010 have moved into Columbus City Schools limits. i.e. more or less the urban core. Interesting post to read through if you're wondering where most of the urban area's population growth is.
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