December 23, 20195 yr On 12/21/2019 at 11:58 AM, jonoh81 said: Getting down to a smaller level, here is some updated data on Franklin County census tracts. Top 15 Most Populated in 2018- Note that most of these are much larger suburban tracts. 1. 102 Far SE: 18,266 2. 6230 NW/Dublin: 17,721 3. 9740 Far South: 16,104 4. 7395 Far East: 14,380 5. 7396 Far East: 11,684 6. 9450 Pickerington: 10,356 7. 1121 Campus: 10,200 8. 7210 New Albany: 10,171 9. 7551 South of Easton: 10,027 10. 7921 Hilliard: 9,988 11. 8162 Galloway: 9,529 12. 6383 Dublin: 9,163 13. 7393 Far East: 9,095 14. 105 Dublin: 9,083 15. 7951 West Side: 8,890 Top 15 Fastest Growing Tracts 2010-2018 1. 7207 Far NE: +60.1% 2. 7205 New Albany: 53.2% 3. 9331 East/Whitehall: +52.3% 4. 7209 NE: +49.6% 5. 7533 NE/Easton: +41.2% 6. 7721 Linden: +39.9% 7. 1121 Campus: +39.7% 8. 7922 Hilliard: +39.2% 9. 7203 New Albany: +38.4% 10. 32 Vic. Village: +37.1% 11. 6230 NW/Dublin: +35.0% 12. 1901 5thxNW: 33.7% 13. 14 Linden: +31.3% 14. 6933 North Side: +30.5% 15. 7531 NE/Easton: +30.3% Top 20 Tracts with the Highest Density 1. 1121 Campus: 29,218.0 2. 1810 South Campus: 26,609.8 3. 13 Campus/Indianola Terrace: 22,237.8 4. 10 Old North Columbus: 17,076.2 5. 12 Campus: 15,001.9 6. 17 Weinland Park: 14,644.1 7. 1110 North Campus: 14,229.7 8. 20 Vic. Village: 12,386.5 9. 6933 Morse Road : 11,748.0 10. 21 Short North: 10,710.4 11. 6942 Northgate: 10,646.1 12. 47 Hilltop: 10,612.7 13. 8163 Lincoln Village: 10,423.7 14. 6352 NW Side: 10,047.2 15. 6 Old North Columbus: 9912.9 16. 9323 East/Whitehall: 9,801.0 17. 4810 Hilltop: 9,741.0 18. 730 Linden: 9,617.6 19. 16 Weinland Park: 9,381.9 20. 1902 5thxNW: 9,370.1 Are these new numbers or just more detailed versions of the estimates that come out in the summer?
December 23, 20195 yr 2 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said: Are these new numbers or just more detailed versions of the estimates that come out in the summer? These are brand new. Census tract and block data only comes out each December. It is not part of the spring-summer releases.
December 23, 20195 yr 4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: These are brand new. Census tract and block data only comes out each December. It is not part of the spring-summer releases. Ok. Sorry. I'm not too familiar with the population releases. Does this mean we have a new number for the city of Columbus other than the 892,533 2018 estimate? Or do we need to wait until summer 2020 for that? I know MORPC has also been releasing their own estimates at the end of the year. They tend to be higher than what the census says. If their trend for their 2018 estimate continues(city reached 902,674 with an increase of 22,000), they'll probably have a number higher than 915,000 for 2019. Why are their numbers are so different? Do you think they're being way overly optimistic? Or, could we see a significant correction in the census numbers in 2020?
December 23, 20195 yr Some more data on the census tracts. # of Census Tracts by Density in Franklin County 25,000 or More 2010: 1 2018: 2 20K-24,999 2010: 2 2018: 2 15K-19,999 2010: 3 2018: 2 10K-14,999 2010: 2 2018: 9 7.5K-9999 2010: 27 2018: 35 5K-7499 2010: 61 2018: 62 2.5K-4999 2010: 109 2018: 104 2499 or Less 2010: 79 2018: 68 Average Tract Density 2010: 4512.6 2018: 4852.0
December 23, 20195 yr Author 8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Some more data on the census tracts. # of Census Tracts by Density in Franklin County 25,000 or More 2010: 1 2018: 2 20K-24,999 2010: 2 2018: 2 15K-19,999 2010: 3 2018: 2 10K-14,999 2010: 2 2018: 9 7.5K-9999 2010: 27 2018: 35 5K-7499 2010: 61 2018: 62 2.5K-4999 2010: 109 2018: 104 2499 or Less 2010: 79 2018: 68 Average Tract Density 2010: 4512.6 2018: 4852.0 Interesting that Columbus appears to be approaching a density of 5,000 persons per square mile. Also interesting is the big jump in overall tracts over 10,000 per square mile-about a 50% increase. I really hope these estimates are accurate. Do you remember(or have the data)regarding what the last census estimate was for Columbus before the actual official number was released? I can't remember and I was just wondering how close it was. If I recall correctly the actual number was significantly higher for Columbus than the estimate, which was unlike many other cities that were considerably lower?
December 23, 20195 yr 22 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said: Ok. Sorry. I'm not too familiar with the population releases. Does this mean we have a new number for the city of Columbus other than the 892,533 2018 estimate? Or do we need to wait until summer 2020 for that? I know MORPC has also been releasing their own estimates at the end of the year. They tend to be higher than what the census says. If their trend for their 2018 estimate continues(city reached 902,674 with an increase of 22,000), they'll probably have a number higher than 915,000 for 2019. Why are their numbers are so different? Do you think they're being way overly optimistic? Or, could we see a significant correction in the census numbers in 2020? The release schedule is typically as follows: April: County/Metro/CSA population data and components of growth. May: City population data/State and county housing data June: State/County/Metro/CSA demographic data September: ACS 1-Year Estimates including demographic data for cities. December: Tracts/Blocks/States estimates and ACS 5-year demographic data that includes all sub-county areas like tracts and Census Designated Places. So we won't have data for the cities for 2019 until next May. I did a breakdown not that long ago about the difference between MORPC and Census estimates on this thread, and MORPC just seems to be doing 1 year ahead. They had 2019 estimates out before the Census had 2018, but overall, they seem to be following similar trajectories. I expect the 2019 Census estimate will be in the range of where MORPC was for 2019, if not a bit higher- somewhere in the range of 905K.
December 23, 20195 yr 19 minutes ago, Toddguy said: Interesting that Columbus appears to be approaching a density of 5,000 persons per square mile. Also interesting is the big jump in overall tracts over 10,000 per square mile-about a 50% increase. I really hope these estimates are accurate. Do you remember(or have the data)regarding what the last census estimate was for Columbus before the actual official number was released? I can't remember and I was just wondering how close it was. If I recall correctly the actual number was significantly higher for Columbus than the estimate, which was unlike many other cities that were considerably lower? Population estimates for cities for 2009 or earlier are no longer available on census.gov. However, on the old ACS website, the 1-year estimate for 2009 was 773,021. 2010 census was 787,033, so not an unreasonable figure. However, these numbers were always revised with each new estimate and these numbers were all revised upward, in some cases significantly. The 2008 estimate ACS has is 740,086, which suggests a single-year growth rate of 33,000. Obviously that is incorrect and the numbers were revised to match the subsequent 2010 census count. The 5-year ACS has a 2009 estimate of 753,572, which is probably much closer to the original 2009 figure. What this all means is that the estimates were too low and had to be revised upward when the real count showed stronger growth. Basically, Columbus was being underestimated. Edited December 23, 20195 yr by jonoh81
December 23, 20195 yr Author 9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Population estimates for cities for 2009 or earlier are no longer available on census.gov. However, on the old ACS website, the 1-year estimate for 2009 was 773,021. 2010 census was 787,033, so not an unreasonable figure. However, these numbers were always revised with each new estimate and these numbers were all revised upward, in some cases significantly. The 2008 estimate ACS has is 740,086, which suggests a single-year growth rate of 33,000. Obviously that is incorrect and the numbers were revised to match the subsequent 2010 census count. The 5-year ACS has a 2009 estimate of 753,572, which is probably much closer to the original 2009 figure. What this all means is that the estimates were too low and had to be revised upward when the real count showed stronger growth. Basically, Columbus was being underestimated. Thanks yeah I remembered that Cbus was undercounted but I could not remember by how much it was undercounted. For some reason I keep thinking that we might be overcounted this time, just because the estimates have been so good and are showing such growth...almost like it is too good to be true-especially given how new residential construction seems to be lagging and all which makes me think where are all of these people living? I know the vacancy rates seem to be much lower than in 2010. I remember going to visit my parents and there were so many vacant properties then, and now you barely see any there. I also wonder with so many new immigrants and given the relatively large number of people living here you that were not born in the US(something like 185,000 or so I believe)if the birth rate for that group and family size might be higher than average. Well we will just have to wait and see. I hope that the stupid changes to the Census questions do not cause an undercount. Edited December 23, 20195 yr by Toddguy grammar, spelling, etc. etc. -why do I not proofread my posts before posting????
December 23, 20195 yr 2 hours ago, Toddguy said: Thanks yeah I remembered that Cbus was undercounted but I could not remember by how much it was undercounted. For some reason I keep thinking that we might be overcounted this time, just because the estimates have been so good and are showing such growth...almost like it is too good to be true-especially given how new residential construction seems to be lagging and all which makes me think where are all of these people living? I know the vacancy rates seem to be much lower than in 2010. I remember going to visit my parents and there were so many vacant properties then, and now you barely see any there. I also wonder with so many new immigrants and given the relatively large number of people living here you that were not born in the US(something like 185,000 or so I believe)if the birth rate for that group and family size might be higher than average. Well we will just have to wait and see. I hope that the stupid changes to the Census questions do not cause an undercount. I don't know, I'm actually still thinking it's being undercounted, if anything. It's not just the vacancy rate of new construction that's low, but also in old neighborhoods. There have been several articles this decade highlighting how former bombed out, high-vacancy neighborhoods like Old Oaks, Driving Park, South Linden, etc. have been seeing plummeting vacancy rates. As housing costs have gone up in the city, the relatively cheaper housing of these neighborhoods has become a lot more attractive. Even some of the worst neighborhoods have started to stabilize. But yeah, that will only go so far. Without building 2x-3x more per year, it will eventually affect how fast Columbus can grow. Edited December 23, 20195 yr by jonoh81
February 9, 20205 yr https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/2020-q1-renter-migration-report/ A different way of looking at in-migration and out-migration from online rental service ApartmentList.com. The website did a study of inbound searches (people who live elsewhere but are searching for apartments in the Columbus metro) and outbound searches (people who live in the Columbus metro but are searching for apartments elsewhere). ApartmentList found that 30.5% of out-of-town searches for Central Ohio apartments from June through December 2019 came from residents of the Detroit area. Significantly higher than the second and third ranked metros of Cleveland (11.9%) and Akron (7.5%). On the outbound search side, the top three were Cincinnati (6.8%), Cleveland (5.6%) and Lexington, KY (4.8%).
February 26, 20205 yr Downtown Columbus could hit 10,000 residents this year. Here's what it still needs The pace of population growth downtown is expected to accelerate during the next three years. Capital Crossroads and Discovery Special Improvement Districts publicized their annual State of Downtown report Wednesday, finding that while the center city's population ended 2019 a little lower than projections at 9,270 people, the area should still grow to 10,700 this year in 7,963 housing units. ... The pace of the growth is expected to keep accelerating. The report predicts 11,900 people in 8,886 housing units in 2021 and 14,000 people in 10,642 housing units by the end of 2022, according to data from Vogt Strategic Insights. More here: https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/02/26/downtown-columbus-could-hit-10-000-residents-this.html?iana=hpmvp_colum_news_headline spoiler alert: the "what it still needs" is transit Edited February 26, 20205 yr by TH3BUDDHA
February 27, 20205 yr 13 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said: Downtown Columbus could hit 10,000 residents this year. Here's what it still needs The pace of population growth downtown is expected to accelerate during the next three years. Capital Crossroads and Discovery Special Improvement Districts publicized their annual State of Downtown report Wednesday, finding that while the center city's population ended 2019 a little lower than projections at 9,270 people, the area should still grow to 10,700 this year in 7,963 housing units. ... The pace of the growth is expected to keep accelerating. The report predicts 11,900 people in 8,886 housing units in 2021 and 14,000 people in 10,642 housing units by the end of 2022, according to data from Vogt Strategic Insights. More here: https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/02/26/downtown-columbus-could-hit-10-000-residents-this.html?iana=hpmvp_colum_news_headline spoiler alert: the "what it still needs" is transit Some other positive notes from the article: Currently, there are 86,665 workers employed downtown. The downtown office vacancy rate is 14%. There are 1,000 hotel rooms under construction. Downtown has a hotel occupancy rate of 66.5%, which is close to the 70% threshold that signifies more rooms are needed.
May 23, 20205 yr Author 2019 estimate 898,553 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/columbuscityohio,US/PST045219 Midwest Cities (250,000+): City / 2019 Estimate / Change since 2010 Chicago: 2,693,976; -1,622 Columbus: 898,553; +111,520 Indianapolis: 876,384; +55,939 Detroit: 670,031; -43,746 Milwaukee: 590,157; -4,676 Kansas City: 495,327; +35,540 Omaha: 478,192; +69,234 Minneapolis: 429,606; +47,028 Cleveland: 381,009; -15,806 St. Paul: 308,096; +23,028 Cincinnati: 303,940; +6,997 St. Louis: 300,576; -18,718 Lincoln: 289,102; +30,723 Toledo: 272,779; -14,429 Read more: https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/3158922-2019-city-estimate-prediction-discussion.html#ixzz6NGcUqk38 Edited May 23, 20205 yr by Toddguy
May 25, 20205 yr On 5/23/2020 at 7:05 AM, Toddguy said: 2019 estimate 898,553 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/columbuscityohio,US/PST045219 Midwest Cities (250,000+): City / 2019 Estimate / Change since 2010 Chicago: 2,693,976; -1,622 Columbus: 898,553; +111,520 Indianapolis: 876,384; +55,939 Detroit: 670,031; -43,746 Milwaukee: 590,157; -4,676 Kansas City: 495,327; +35,540 Omaha: 478,192; +69,234 Minneapolis: 429,606; +47,028 Cleveland: 381,009; -15,806 St. Paul: 308,096; +23,028 Cincinnati: 303,940; +6,997 St. Louis: 300,576; -18,718 Lincoln: 289,102; +30,723 Toledo: 272,779; -14,429 Read more: https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/3158922-2019-city-estimate-prediction-discussion.html#ixzz6NGcUqk38 It's kind of funny how even though Columbus is growing quickly, it would still take it almost 145 years to reach Chicago's population right now.
May 26, 20205 yr Author 2 hours ago, jonoh81 said: It's kind of funny how even though Columbus is growing quickly, it would still take it almost 145 years to reach Chicago's population right now. Well only one other American city besides NYC has been able to pass it. You never know though. Who in 1950 would have thought that Columbus would have more than 200,000 people than Detroit? Or that Cleveland and Columbus would basically be trading places regarding 1950 populations by 2020? Who knows, with the way Columbus annexes(per other residents of certain cities and certain editors of certain .com local news websites that got rid of their comment section not too long ago)in 30 years Columbus might extend all the way from the Ohio River to Lake Erie, cover 10,000 square miles, and have more than 3 million people! ? Edited May 26, 20205 yr by Toddguy
May 26, 20205 yr Well, more realistically, the Columbus metro population will likely pass Kansas City in the next 3-4 years, Cincinnati in the next 6-7 years, and maybe Pittsburgh as well. Of course, population changes can shift so who knows what the next decade will bring. Very Stable Genius
May 26, 20205 yr 3 hours ago, DarkandStormy said: Well, more realistically, the Columbus metro population will likely pass Kansas City in the next 3-4 years, Cincinnati in the next 6-7 years, and maybe Pittsburgh as well. Of course, population changes can shift so who knows what the next decade will bring. You just wait...they will finally add Dayton to the Cincy MSA and then people realize how truly powerful Cincinnati is! /s
December 14, 20204 yr Was just taking a look at some of the tract data that @jonoh81posted in the Ohio population thread. I thought it was interesting that a couple of the fastest shrinking tracts were in the Old North area. I was surprised by that.
December 14, 20204 yr 1 minute ago, TH3BUDDHA said: Was just taking a look at some of the tract data that @jonoh81posted in the Ohio population thread. I thought it was interesting that a couple of the fastest shrinking tracts were in the Old North area. I was surprised by that. Maybe as a result of less students being packed into off-campus domiciles and now residing on campus? Or the overall trend of students housing both on and off campus requiring demanding more overall living space, resulting in less people overall? Or is Old North Columbus transitioning also to more single-family uses? I know a lot of young singles and couples that have bought in the area that might be driving overall populations down. Or maybe a combination of all 3.
December 14, 20204 yr 7 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said: Was just taking a look at some of the tract data that @jonoh81posted in the Ohio population thread. I thought it was interesting that a couple of the fastest shrinking tracts were in the Old North area. I was surprised by that. I think it's entirely related to OSU's requirement for freshman and sophomore's to live on campus. The population dropped in several tracts surrounding OSU, but boomed on campus itself.
December 14, 20204 yr 1 minute ago, CMHOhio said: Maybe as a result of less students being packed into off-campus domiciles and now residing on campus? Or the overall trend of students housing both on and off campus requiring demanding more overall living space, resulting in less people overall? Or is Old North Columbus transitioning also to more single-family uses? I know a lot of young singles and couples that have bought in the area that might be driving overall populations down. Or maybe a combination of all 3. Beat me to it. Yeah, a lot of these neighborhoods are in transition away from mostly student residents.
February 25, 20214 yr Map of where racial demographics have grown the fastest by total per Franklin County census tract, 2010-2019. https://arcg.is/0qva4v0 Purple is Non-Hispanic White Blue is Non-Hispanic Black Green is Non-Hispanic Asian Red is Non-Hispanic Other- this includes multi-racial people, Native Americans and Pacific Islanders, among others. Orange is Hispanic Non-Hispanic White dominates Downtown areas and the outer suburbs, Asians are most plentiful around Dublin and West Campus, Hispanics are clustered around Hilltop and Whitehall, Non-Hispanic Black has grown the most along the northwest side near Morse, around Easton and the eastern suburbs, and Other seems to be most concentrated on the South Side and Linden. Edited February 25, 20214 yr by jonoh81
April 23, 20214 yr Author I can't wait for the 2020 census data for Columbus and Central Ohio and it sucks that it is delayed and all. Does anyone know the timelines for the release of the various parts?
April 23, 20214 yr 13 minutes ago, Toddguy said: I can't wait for the 2020 census data for Columbus and Central Ohio and it sucks that it is delayed and all. Does anyone know the timelines for the release of the various parts? Here are estimate release schedules: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html 2020 Census important dates: https://2020census.gov/en/important-dates.html Edited April 23, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA
April 26, 20214 yr Now that we see the state population was underestimated, any updated predictions for the Columbus metro?
April 26, 20214 yr @jonoh81you were pretty close with your state level prediction. What is your MSA prediction?
April 27, 20214 yr 18 hours ago, TH3BUDDHA said: @jonoh81you were pretty close with your state level prediction. What is your MSA prediction? So there are 3 possibilities: 1. A growth rate similar to the 2000s. 2. A growth rate faster than then 2000s. 3. A growth rate a bit slower than the 2000s. #3 seems highly unlikely as all indications point to record growth in the metro area, along with the fact that Ohio grew more that past 10 years than it did during the 2000s. #1 is more possible, but again unlikely given the evidence. So that leaves us with #2. 2000-2010, the metro grew by 226,961. This was a rate of 13.55%, or an annualized rate of 1.355% 2010-2019, the metro was being estimated to have grown by 220,297, a rate of 11.58%, an annualized rate of 1.287%. However, we now know that the estimates were off quite a bit in Ohio, with even the 2020 estimate being off by more than 106,000. Cincinnati may have picked up some of that, but given that Columbus is the only Ohio metro that's had positive domestic migration overall in recent years, it's entirely possible the Columbus metro picked up the vast majority of that undercount. Furthermore, the Columbus region has been consistently undercounted when compared to earlier estimates, and has always needed to be revised upwards. Given all the other evidence, the Columbus metro only growing by 1.287% annually is very unlikely. Furthermore, it seems that a rate similar to the 2000s is also not supported. So all that said, I would not expect to see an annual growth rate above the 2000s at minimum. I would put the annualized rate between 1.4%-1.8%. That would put the Columbus metro between 2,168,250 and 2,244,329, with a most-likely number around 2.2 million. The 2019 estimate was 2,122,271. Edited April 27, 20214 yr by jonoh81
April 27, 20214 yr Author 58 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: So there are 3 possibilities: 1. A growth rate similar to the 2000s. 2. A growth rate faster than then 2000s. 3. A growth rate a bit slower than the 2000s. #3 seems highly unlikely as all indications point to record growth in the metro area, along with the fact that Ohio grew more that past 10 years than it did during the 2000s. #1 is more possible, but again unlikely given the evidence. So that leaves us with #2. 2000-2010, the metro grew by 226,961. This was a rate of 13.55%, or an annualized rate of 1.355% 2010-2019, the metro was being estimated to have grown by 220,297, a rate of 11.58%, an annualized rate of 1.287%. However, we now know that the estimates were off quite a bit in Ohio, with even the 2020 estimate being off by more than 106,000. Cincinnati may have picked up some of that, but given that Columbus is the only Ohio metro that's had positive domestic migration overall in recent years, it's entirely possible the Columbus metro picked up the vast majority of that undercount. Furthermore, the Columbus region has been consistently undercounted when compared to earlier estimates, and has always needed to be revised upwards. Given all the other evidence, the Columbus metro only growing by 1.287% annually is very unlikely. Furthermore, it seems that a rate similar to the 2000s is also not supported. So all that said, I would not expect to see an annual growth rate above the 2000s at minimum. I would put the annualized rate between 1.4%-1.8%. That would put the Columbus metro between 2,168,250 and 2,244,329, with a most-likely number around 2.2 million. The 2019 estimate was 2,122,271. Any guesses/estimates for within Columbus city limits?
April 27, 20214 yr 2 hours ago, Toddguy said: Any guesses/estimates for within Columbus city limits? The city has been getting about 50% of the total metro growth for some time, but there's no guarantee that that has continued. My metro range is +266,276 to +342,355. Bare minimum, I think Columbus will pick up 40%. 40% of Metro Growth: 893,543-923,975 50% of Metro Growth: 920,171-958,211 60% of Metro Growth: 946,788-992,446 So a total overall range of 893,543-992,446. Columbus very likely hit 900K in 2017-2018 given the overall estimate undercounts. I would think a number around 930,000 would not be all the surprising.
April 27, 20214 yr On the outright, I would say Columbus picked up the majority of the Ohio underestimate, just based on its past trajectory. But when I really think of it, I'm not so sure. The Census methodology is the same across the board. Compare where the over/underestimates were nationally. They overestimated the traditional fast growth areas, and underestimated the slow growth areas, some massively so in the case of NY/NJ. From that, I wouldn't be surprised of Cbus and central Ohio were overestimated, with the 106k coming from faster than expected growth (or slower decline) in the traditional slow growth areas of the state.
April 28, 20214 yr 5 hours ago, PoshSteve said: On the outright, I would say Columbus picked up the majority of the Ohio underestimate, just based on its past trajectory. But when I really think of it, I'm not so sure. The Census methodology is the same across the board. Compare where the over/underestimates were nationally. They overestimated the traditional fast growth areas, and underestimated the slow growth areas, some massively so in the case of NY/NJ. From that, I wouldn't be surprised of Cbus and central Ohio were overestimated, with the 106k coming from faster than expected growth (or slower decline) in the traditional slow growth areas of the state. There really isn't any evidence that Central Ohio is being overestimated. In the past few decades, it's been just the opposite.
April 28, 20214 yr On 4/26/2021 at 5:32 PM, TH3BUDDHA said: Now that we see the state population was underestimated, any updated predictions for the Columbus metro? I haven't had time to catch up on everything with the Census yet. How do we know Ohio was undercounted? That really sucks.
April 28, 20214 yr 11 minutes ago, Zyrokai said: I haven't had time to catch up on everything with the Census yet. How do we know Ohio was undercounted? That really sucks. It wasn't undercounted. It was underestimated. The yearly estimates actually were around 100,000 people too short. So the official census count was higher than expected. Now, everybody here is trying to figure out where exactly in Ohio those extra 100,000 people are. Edited April 28, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA
April 28, 20214 yr 2 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said: It wasn't undercounted. It was underestimated. The yearly estimates actually were around 100,000 people too short. So the official census count was higher than expected. Now, everybody here is trying to figure out where exactly in Ohio those extra 100,000 people are. Oh. That makes much more sense. That's interesting. And we still lost a district. I wonder how much more we would have needed to maintain 16 and not lose one.
April 28, 20214 yr 5 minutes ago, Zyrokai said: I wonder how much more we would have needed to maintain 16 and not lose one. About 11,500 additional residents. We were very close.
April 28, 20214 yr 26 minutes ago, Zyrokai said: And we still lost a district. As did California, even though they gained 2 million people in the decade. New York lost a seat by 89 people.
April 28, 20214 yr Author 1 hour ago, TH3BUDDHA said: As did California, even though they gained 2 million people in the decade. New York lost a seat by 89 people. And it was Covid that probably did it as it hit them first. *sigh* Could they demand a recount? Anyway I really do wonder where the extra 100,000 people will be? Every area seems to think they will get a significant chunk of them. Maybe it will be evenly distributed, so as to avoid intrastate city 'rivalries' and all. If most of it goes to just one of the three C's the other two will be pissed-you know how it is lol.
April 28, 20214 yr 12 hours ago, jonoh81 said: There really isn't any evidence that Central Ohio is being overestimated. In the past few decades, it's been just the opposite. Exactly!! The Census does provide yearly estimates and that's a pretty good snapshot of where population is happening vs not. I hope my city, the city of Newark gets in on a fraction of this outstanding 100k population, as its growing pretty steady right now. I would guess that a majority of this growth will be in Central Ohio region. There's just no overwhelming evidence to support that Cleveland or Cincinnati where underestimated by that much and grew by that much. That would actually be a really big failure of the Census Bureau if you ask me. BUT...having said that, i agree and hope that all 3C's are on the growth side of population. From an image and marketing standpoint, it would AWESOME for the state of Ohio to be able to say that Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati all gained population. Lets hope that's the case.
April 28, 20214 yr 19 hours ago, jonoh81 said: Columbus very likely hit 900K in 2017-2018 given the overall estimate undercounts. I would think a number around 930,000 would not be all the surprising. Anything over 915,000 would itself be historic--surpassing Cleveland's all-time high water mark in 1950 to become the largest city ever in Ohio. Columbus is also on track to be the first city in Ohio to ever amass 1 million residents within its city limits, likely within this decade.
April 28, 20214 yr 3 hours ago, DEPACincy said: About 11,500 additional residents. We were very close. Very Stable Genius
April 28, 20214 yr 52 minutes ago, Toddguy said: And it was Covid that probably did it as it hit them first. *sigh* Could they demand a recount? Anyway I really do wonder where the extra 100,000 people will be? Every area seems to think they will get a significant chunk of them. Maybe it will be evenly distributed, so as to avoid intrastate city 'rivalries' and all. If most of it goes to just one of the three C's the other two will be pissed-you know how it is lol. Realistically, most of the extra 100k will be in the Columbus metro, with a few in the Cincy metro. But hopefully Cleveland gets in on the action too.
April 28, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said: Yep. But every state had COVID so that's a caveat. With no COVID at all it's hard to say what the impact would've been.
April 28, 20214 yr Author 44 minutes ago, NEOBuckeye said: Anything over 915,000 would itself be historic--surpassing Cleveland's all-time high water mark in 1950 to become the largest city ever in Ohio. Columbus is also on track to be the first city in Ohio to ever amass 1 million residents within its city limits, likely within this decade. I really have doubts about Cbus reaching 1 million. Unless there is just huge infill/redevelopment within areas already built out, there are just not that many places left within the city limits that would be at all amenable to development to add 85,000 or so residents. So many NIMBYS! but maybe it can though I don't know. Most undeveloped land is not really open to residential development as it is on the west and south sides of the city. I really think the city should annex a bit more where it can north of 70 or maybe in the southeastern areas. The city is sort of getting shut in north of 70-JMHO of course. If things go back to suburban development Cbus can't be caught without growing room(again JMHO). Trying not to get the Cbus crowd at me and all lol. Edited April 28, 20214 yr by Toddguy
April 28, 20214 yr Seems like some additional annexation north along I-71 & Rt. 23 past Polaris and further into Delaware County is inevitable, at the very least. It's one of the least obstructed avenues that the city has for additional growth, barring Powell or Sunbury going on a major annexation binge first.
April 28, 20214 yr 20 minutes ago, Toddguy said: I really have doubts about Cbus reaching 1 million. Unless there is just huge infill/redevelopment within areas already built out, there are just not that many places left within the city limits that would be at all amenable to development to add 85,000 or so residents. So many NIMBYS! but maybe it can though I don't know. Most undeveloped land is not really open to residential development as it is on the west and south sides of the city. I really think the city should annex a bit more where it can north of 70 or maybe in the southeastern areas. The city is sort of getting shut in north of 70-JMHO of course. If things go back to suburban development Cbus can't be caught without growing room(again JMHO). Trying not to get the Cbus crowd at me and all lol. Cbus is FAR from built out. Tons of underdeveloped and undeveloped parcels left. Here are two pics. One is the heart of the Clintonville business district. All low rise, auto-oriented commercial. In 10 years I guarantee it will be lined with mid-rise apartments over commercial. The other is just a random lot in Franklinton. But it's indicative of the kind of vacant lots that are located all over the city, ripe for development.
April 28, 20214 yr Beat me to it @DEPACincy Exactly, there is A LOT more room on the ground than people realize. Areas like Downtown, OTE, Franklinton, Clintonville, and Livingston Ave all are popular/growing areas and all have so much room for density and infill. Columbus currently sits at a density of ~4000 people per square mile, with no additional annexation the city will average 4500 people per square mile with population of 1 Million. We already have multiple neighborhoods that eclipse this average and plenty that don't. There is plenty of room for infill, and grow within city limits.
April 28, 20214 yr 8 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: Cbus is FAR from built out. Tons of underdeveloped and undeveloped parcels left. Here are two pics. One is the heart of the Clintonville business district. All low rise, auto-oriented commercial. In 10 years I guarantee it will be lined with mid-rise apartments over commercial. The other is just a random lot in Franklinton. But it's indicative of the kind of vacant lots that are located all over the city, ripe for development. Agreed. There are still hundreds of unused or underutilized lots spread throughout the city limits. Downtown itself, despite the many buildings that have sprung up over the past decade or so, remains full of empty lots that are ripe for residential development. Suburban Columbus has even seen some of this conversion. Taylor House was built on top of an old K-Mart and its parking lot, for example:
April 28, 20214 yr There's plenty of room to fill in everywhere in the city. Zip code 43202 (South Clintonville and North Campus) has a population density of about 8000 and there's still room to add new housing.
April 28, 20214 yr 10 minutes ago, CMHOhio said: Agreed. There are still hundreds of unused or underutilized lots spread throughout the city limits. Downtown itself, despite the many buildings that have sprung up over the past decade or so, remains full of empty lots that are ripe for residential development. Suburban Columbus has even seen some of this conversion. Taylor House was built on top of an old K-Mart and its parking lot, for example: We've also seen the old Anderson's site undergo a huge residential redevelopment, very similar to this.
April 28, 20214 yr 54 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: Realistically, most of the extra 100k will be in the Columbus metro, with a few in the Cincy metro. But hopefully Cleveland gets in on the action too. I think we are all kind of talking about slightly different things. Cleveland almost definitely didn't grow the last decade, so we're really talking about how many people it was able to retain. I think some of the underestimate may be in assuming the losses there were greater than they were. In Columbus, it's more likely to be an underestimate of how fast it added people overall. Cincinnati is kind of in between, with some growth and some retainment.
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