55 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

I really have doubts about Cbus reaching 1 million. Unless there is just huge infill/redevelopment within areas already built out, there are just not that many places left within the city limits that would be at all amenable to development to add 85,000 or so residents. So many NIMBYS! but maybe it can though I don't know.  Most undeveloped land is not really open to residential development as it is on the west and south sides of the city. I really think the city should annex a bit more where it can north of 70 or maybe in the southeastern areas. The city is sort of getting shut in north of 70-JMHO of course. If things go back to suburban development Cbus can't be caught without growing room(again JMHO). Trying not to get the Cbus crowd at me and all lol.

 

Columbus city limits has enormous amounts of room to both add infill and just densify.  All of Linden and much of the far South Side alone, just for starters, could see decades of infill without breaking a sweat.  If Columbus ever did away with single-family exclusionary zoning, the sky's literally the limit.  No more land needs to be added to keep growing indefinitely.  

22 minutes ago, CMHOhio said:

 

Agreed. There are still hundreds of unused or underutilized lots spread throughout the city limits. Downtown itself, despite the many buildings that have sprung up over the past decade or so, remains full of empty lots that are ripe for residential development. Suburban Columbus has even seen some of this conversion. Taylor House was built on top of an old K-Mart and its parking lot, for example:

 

 

I would argue that's a good example of what NOT to do.  Columbus has and is building far too many of these intermediary developments- half urban and half suburban- that don't fully take advantage of their land use potential.

31 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Cbus is FAR from built out. Tons of underdeveloped and undeveloped parcels left. Here are two pics. One is the heart of the Clintonville business district. All low rise, auto-oriented commercial. In 10 years I guarantee it will be lined with mid-rise apartments over commercial. The other is just a random lot in Franklinton. But it's indicative of the kind of vacant lots that are located all over the city, ripe for development.

 

 

OMG...your first example of an area that will be lined with multi-story apartment buildings is Clintonville?-where you cannot even get a two story building built at a prime location because of the huge NIMBYISM? lol

 

Again I said it was my own opinion multiple times-If you don't agree fine. We don't know what the 'trends' will be 10 or 20 years from now. If Cbus is closer to 930,000 or more then it will probably pass 1 million and probably by 2030 but after than I really don't know...none of us do. Again this is JMHO. We don't know how long the whole density thing will last-it was really not around 20 or 30 years ago. Didn't downtown alone reach it's lowest population just 20 years ago? 30 years ago the short north was still kind of slummy.  We don't know what is in store for us. I would love for current trends to continue and Cbus to far surpass 1 million residents. And I am sure the metro will continue to grow...I just don't know how much will continue to be within the Cbus city limits. 

 

again JMHO YMMV.

1 minute ago, Toddguy said:

OMG...your first example of an area that will be lined with multi-story apartment buildings is Clintonville?-where you cannot even get a two story building built at a prime location because of the huge NIMBYISM? lol

 

Again I said it was my own opinion multiple times-If you don't agree fine. We don't know what the 'trends' will be 10 or 20 years from now. If Cbus is closer to 930,000 or more then it will probably pass 1 million and probably by 2030 but after than I really don't know...none of us do. Again this is JMHO. We don't know how long the whole density thing will last-it was really not around 20 or 30 years ago. Didn't downtown alone reach it's lowest population just 20 years ago? 30 years ago the short north was still kind of slummy.  We don't know what is in store for us. I would love for current trends to continue and Cbus to far surpass 1 million residents. And I am sure the metro will continue to grow...I just don't know how much will continue to be within the Cbus city limits. 

 

again JMHO YMMV.

 

I agree no one knows the future.  The only point of contention was suggesting Columbus didn't have much existing room to build within its current limits.  It absolutely does, and even if it was otherwise fully built out, densification could occur across like 99% of its land area long into the future.  

The irony is that Columbus is estimated to have added more people in the 9 years between 2010-2019 than the 10 years of any single decade in its history, including the decades it was packing on the square miles through annexation.  

5 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Columbus city limits has enormous amounts of room to both add infill and just densify.  All of Linden and much of the far South Side alone, just for starters, could see decades of infill without breaking a sweat.  If Columbus ever did away with single-family exclusionary zoning, the sky's literally the limit.  No more land needs to be added to keep growing indefinitely.  

True-as long as people don't change their minds and want new suburban greenfield developments on the fringes. We just don't know. Even with best practices Mid Ohio planning is showing the urban growth area expanding by over 100 square miles, and with worst practices several times that. We can't predict the future. Just because it can happen doesn't mean it will happen. I hope we continue to densify as I am sure everyone else on here does but I am not going to place money on it. Just look at the unexpected things  that can happen-like a Trump, an insurrection, a pandemic, a war, etc. 

 

And yes we need to seriously amend the SFH zoning, build with density and transit along major arteries, create dense notes that can be connected by transit like at Easton. But will we do it? Will increasing growth activate even more NIMBYS? Does the city have the will to follow through?

8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

I agree no one knows the future.  The only point of contention was suggesting Columbus didn't have much existing room to build within its current limits.  It absolutely does, and even if it was otherwise fully built out, densification could occur across like 99% of its land area long into the future.  

The irony is that Columbus is estimated to have added more people in the 9 years between 2010-2019 than the 10 years of any single decade in its history, including the decades it was packing on the square miles through annexation.  

Where do you see areas that could be new builds and not redevelopment that would actually be within current city limits and would be amenable to residential development? I see some areas on the southeast side, but the other areas are way down south(where nobody wants to live)or west(where development is limited by the Big Darby Accord, etc.) ?  The open areas that are hot for development have seemed to fill up(like around New Albany, the strip between Dublin and Hilliard, and Polaris). And I don't think any areas that are currently developed(like nearly everything in southern Delaware County)would ever consider annexation to Cbus. 

 

I guess I just don't see that much area for brand new development in desirable areas. Now if the redevelopment/infill housing in established areas keeps up, yeah we won't need any more room. I just would rather we try and annex some more in crucial areas just to be on the safe side.

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by Toddguy

Just gonna chime in here and say that Columbus is by NO means maxed out. There is SO much potential just inside the city limits, not just the metro. My goodness, my head spins thinking about it. I don't agree we're "maxed out" at all.

8 minutes ago, Zyrokai said:

Just gonna chime in here and say that Columbus is by NO means maxed out. There is SO much potential just inside the city limits, not just the metro. My goodness, my head spins thinking about it. I don't agree we're "maxed out" at all.

Where? Seriously where is there all of this open undeveloped land that is ripe for brand new development that is in areas where residential development can happen and will be in a desirable area? And I am not talking about infill on existing streets or redevelopment of existing areas...I am talking about places where development can occur if current trends change and we go back towards more SFH greenfield subdivision sprawl?

*some of this is happening right now just past the Kroger in the Westland area at Broad and Galloway-they already are putting up some of the apartments and the SFhousing will follow. And it is in Cbus, but that is about as far west as you can build. Where are these large areas where this kind of development can occur if current trends change and this becomes the more desired living situation-new builds on greenfields-like in much of Delaware County now?

 

Somebody post a map with these desirable open available undeveloped greenfields currenty within the city limits? And stuff out by Hellbranch Run or near Scioto Downs, etc. is not going to cut it. 

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by Toddguy

20 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Where? Seriously where is there all of this open undeveloped land that is ripe for brand new development that is in areas where residential development can happen and will be in a desirable area? And I am not talking about infill on existing streets or redevelopment of existing areas...I am talking about places where development can occur if current trends change and we go back towards more SFH greenfield subdivision sprawl?

*some of this is happening right now just past the Kroger in the Westland area at Broad and Galloway-they already are putting up some of the apartments and the SFhousing will follow. And it is in Cbus, but that is about as far west as you can build. Where are these large areas where this kind of development can occur if current trends change and this becomes the more desired living situation-new builds on greenfields-like in much of Delaware County now?

 

Somebody post a map with these desirable open available undeveloped greenfields currenty within the city limits? And stuff out by Hellbranch Run or near Scioto Downs, etc. is not going to cut it. 

For a starter, just drive around the entire near east side for a tiny fraction.  The infill happening over there right now is insane.  Hell, you just commented about that in that thread.  There are TONS of random grass lots all over the place over there that will all see apartments and infill housing.  Then drive down Main towards Bexley and see all the blight ready for redevelopment when they choose the east west corridor project.  What about Franklinton?  Tons of huge empty lots and blighted buildings.  Downtown?  Swaths of parking lots prime for redevelopment.  South Columbus?  So much potential.  Easton and Polaris areas have tons of open space still left to densify.  Columbus is nowhere near maxed out.  It's honestly hard to answer your "where" question because the answer is literally "everywhere."

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA

13 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Where? Seriously where is there all of this open undeveloped land that is ripe for brand new development that is in areas where residential development can happen and will be in a desirable area?

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

 

 

The amount of potential in just these three images alone is insane.

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA

2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

I think we are all kind of talking about slightly different things.  Cleveland almost definitely didn't grow the last decade, so we're really talking about how many people it was able to retain.  I think some of the underestimate may be in assuming the losses there were greater than they were.   In Columbus, it's more likely to be an underestimate of how fast it added people overall.  Cincinnati is kind of in between, with some growth and some retainment.

 

Nope. That's exactly what I meant. You just said it better.

2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

OMG...your first example of an area that will be lined with multi-story apartment buildings is Clintonville?-where you cannot even get a two story building built at a prime location because of the huge NIMBYISM? lol

 

Again I said it was my own opinion multiple times-If you don't agree fine. We don't know what the 'trends' will be 10 or 20 years from now. If Cbus is closer to 930,000 or more then it will probably pass 1 million and probably by 2030 but after than I really don't know...none of us do. Again this is JMHO. We don't know how long the whole density thing will last-it was really not around 20 or 30 years ago. Didn't downtown alone reach it's lowest population just 20 years ago? 30 years ago the short north was still kind of slummy.  We don't know what is in store for us. I would love for current trends to continue and Cbus to far surpass 1 million residents. And I am sure the metro will continue to grow...I just don't know how much will continue to be within the Cbus city limits. 

 

again JMHO YMMV.

 

Not attacking you. You're sharing your opinion and I'm sharing why I think it's wrong. No biggie. 

 

The Clintonville NIMBYs will be irrelevant in a few years for a number of reasons. First, there's a younger contingent moving in that wants more urban amenities. I know a few of these people that moved to Clintonville because Grandview or Short North/Victorian Village got too expensive. They'd like to see a lot more density. Second, there is a national movement for zoning reform to allow more density by-right and Columbus will definitely jump on board with that. That takes a lot of power away from NIMBYs.

 

And you're right we don't know what the trends will be in 10 or 20 years and that's why it seems so silly to me to say that Columbus proper is built out. Nobody foresaw what the Short North has become. If people want to live in Cbus there's plenty of places for density to be added. Columbus city limits cover so much of the metro that if Cbus proper stops growing you'll likely see a halt to metro growth as well.

7 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

I know a few of these people that moved to Clintonville because Grandview or Short North/Victorian Village got too expensive.

 

I wish I had the money to be forced to downgrade from Grandview/SN/VV to Cville...

 

 

2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Where? Seriously where is there all of this open undeveloped land that is ripe for brand new development that is in areas where residential development can happen and will be in a desirable area? And I am not talking about infill on existing streets or redevelopment of existing areas...I am talking about places where development can occur if current trends change and we go back towards more SFH greenfield subdivision sprawl?

*some of this is happening right now just past the Kroger in the Westland area at Broad and Galloway-they already are putting up some of the apartments and the SFhousing will follow. And it is in Cbus, but that is about as far west as you can build. Where are these large areas where this kind of development can occur if current trends change and this becomes the more desired living situation-new builds on greenfields-like in much of Delaware County now?

 

Somebody post a map with these desirable open available undeveloped greenfields currenty within the city limits? And stuff out by Hellbranch Run or near Scioto Downs, etc. is not going to cut it. 

 

People already shared good pics, but this is such a weird question to me. We agreed that the future is unknowable, but based on what we do know, a new trend toward fringe greenfield development being more desirable is very unlikely. There are fewer and fewer fringe greenfield areas left in the metro and, at a certain point, people are unwilling to commute long distances, so fringe areas become less desirable anyway. Plus, we know that as metro areas densify, people place an even higher premium on central location and dense urban neighborhoods. That's not a new development. That's been happening for a long time and is consistent across the world.

 

So I guess it is within the realm of possibilities that people will en masse decide they want big boxes on big lots and hate the city again. But it doesn't seem particularly likely. So if I was a betting man I'd say Cbus will hit the million mark and keep going. 

2 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Where? Seriously where is there all of this open undeveloped land that is ripe for brand new development that is in areas where residential development can happen and will be in a desirable area? And I am not talking about infill on existing streets or redevelopment of existing areas...I am talking about places where development can occur if current trends change and we go back towards more SFH greenfield subdivision sprawl?

*some of this is happening right now just past the Kroger in the Westland area at Broad and Galloway-they already are putting up some of the apartments and the SFhousing will follow. And it is in Cbus, but that is about as far west as you can build. Where are these large areas where this kind of development can occur if current trends change and this becomes the more desired living situation-new builds on greenfields-like in much of Delaware County now?

 

Somebody post a map with these desirable open available undeveloped greenfields currenty within the city limits? And stuff out by Hellbranch Run or near Scioto Downs, etc. is not going to cut it. 

I don’t know if you don’t count downtown, but this is just a tiny little sample of the downtown area. The amount of parking lots is insane. These areas are perfect for development. 

All of the posted pics are of infill-within the current built up area(with a few portions of greenfield still left in Easton) not the huge undeveloped areas of greenfields that suburbia is built on(if we went back to that). Like the areas in Pickerington, Delaware County, etc.

 

Did everyone miss this part of what I said:

Quote

And I am not talking about infill on existing streets or redevelopment of existing areas...I am talking about places where development can occur if current trends change and we go back towards more SFH greenfield subdivision sprawl?

 

 

And then I get pics of Franklinton and Downtown?  Good God...just nevermind! lol.

 

*Hopefully the current trend of the last few decades of infill and redevelopment will continue and it all will be a moot point.

Columbus should annex itself all the way to Lake Erie and the Ohio river! lol.

21 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

All of the posted pics are of infill-within the current built up area(with a few portions of greenfield still left in Easton) not the huge undeveloped areas of greenfields that suburbia is built on(if we went back to that). Like the areas in Pickerington, Delaware County, etc.

 

Did everyone miss this part of what I said:

 

 

And then I get pics of Franklinton and Downtown?  Good God...just nevermind! lol.

 

*Hopefully the current trend of the last few decades of infill and redevelopment will continue and it all will be a moot point.

But.... we're replying to your comment where you said that Columbus can't get to 1 million residents because it is "built out."  This is wildy incorrect.  There are limitless development opportunities within Columbus, still.  As @jonoh81said, Linden alone could go for decades without breaking a sweat.  If Columbus doesn't get to 1 million residents, it will be for a different reason than us being "built out."

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA

1 minute ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

But.... we're replying to your comment where you said that Columbus can't get to 1 million residents because there is nowhere left to develop.  This is wildy incorrect.  There are limitless development opportunities within Columbus.

I agree...as long as present trends continue and we don't have an "exodus from the city" and all that-like we had for decades before the last several decades? I think I also made that point as well. We have plenty of room if trends continue and we continue to do things like increase mass transit, upzone SFH areas, etc. I believe I mentioned that too. 

 

As long as things continue as they have been then we are fine.  I would like us to be fine if things change as well. But nobody seems to want to have that discussion so I will drop it. 

 

Also if we really are closer to 930.000 then I actually think the 1 million mark is inevitable as no matter what infill of some sorts and at some levels will continue throughout the city unless there is some as of yet some unknown catastrophe awaiting it.

If that was what you wanted to get across then sure, 100K sub-division style houses aren't in the city-propers future.... but thats for the best.

 

I think the "trend" of urban infill and densification is here to stick tbh, for quite a while. Overall, developers still get the bang for their buck and urban areas have really made themselves attractive to many demographics. As for annexing more land? No thanks. I'd rather the city focus on smart growth than accommodate the more wasteful and inefficient trends of the past. 

 

Based on continuing of infill and density, Columbus should have no problem hitting that million mark. If things flip back to suburban, I think it could still be achieved but I'd rather it not. 

17 hours ago, DevolsDance said:

Beat me to it @DEPACincy

 

Exactly, there is A LOT more room on the ground than people realize. Areas like Downtown, OTE, Franklinton, Clintonville, and Livingston Ave all are popular/growing areas and all have so much room for density and infill.

 

Columbus currently sits at a density of ~4000 people per square mile, with no additional annexation the city will average 4500 people per square mile with population of 1 Million. We already have multiple neighborhoods that eclipse this average and plenty that don't. There is plenty of room for infill, and grow within city limits. 

I agree, Columbus is nowhere near built out.  Just go look at Franklinton which is just beginning its transformation.  The Scioto Peninsula development alone is going to bring how many people into Columbus? Also, Easton is getting ready to enter into a residential boom.  They are talking multiple mid rise residential buildings around there too.  Lastly...downtown Columbus isn't even close to being developed.  Downtown just reached 10k residents right?  In my opinion, 30-50k isn't unrealistic.  

5 hours ago, OhioFinest said:

I agree, Columbus is nowhere near built out.  Just go look at Franklinton which is just beginning its transformation.  The Scioto Peninsula development alone is going to bring how many people into Columbus? Also, Easton is getting ready to enter into a residential boom.  They are talking multiple mid rise residential buildings around there too.  Lastly...downtown Columbus isn't even close to being developed.  Downtown just reached 10k residents right?  In my opinion, 30-50k isn't unrealistic.  

 

30K-50K will absolutely never happen Downtown without pushing for far denser projects than what it's been getting.  The 3-8 story projects are just too small, especially when factoring in the lower average household size than what existed during the population peak in the 1950s.  Franklinton has had more proposals over 10 stories the past year than Downtown has had proposed or built in the past decade. 

Take the Nicholas or HighPoint projects- both have plenty of units, but occupy relatively large lots.  Had either one of those projects been split into 2 or more separate projects with similar units but with some additional height, density with both could've been doubled or more.    

Edited April 29, 20214 yr by jonoh81

5 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

30K-50K will absolutely never happen Downtown without pushing for far denser projects than what it's been getting.  The 3-8 story projects are just too small, especially when factoring in the lower average household size than what existed during the population peak in the 1950s.  Franklinton has had more proposals over 10 stories the past year than Downtown has had proposed or built in the past decade. 

Take the Nicholas or HighPoint projects- both have plenty of units, but occupy relatively large lots.  Had either one of those projects been split into 2 or more separate projects with similar units but with some additional height, density with both could've been doubled or more.    

True...BUT the good news is, is that there are tons of surface lots in downtown Columbus.  As those lots gradually become redeveloped, hopefully the density will come. I wont say "never" happens.  There is still plenty of time to change the standards. 

41 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

30K-50K will absolutely never happen Downtown without pushing for far denser projects than what it's been getting.  The 3-8 story projects are just too small, especially when factoring in the lower average household size than what existed during the population peak in the 1950s.  Franklinton has had more proposals over 10 stories the past year than Downtown has had proposed or built in the past decade. 

Take the Nicholas or HighPoint projects- both have plenty of units, but occupy relatively large lots.  Had either one of those projects been split into 2 or more separate projects with similar units but with some additional height, density with both could've been doubled or more.    

 

You have to get through the 3-8 story phase in order to push land prices up enough that taller buildings are necessary to make the project profitable. If they can make enough profit at 3 stories then land is too cheap.

So when again are we going to get some info?/Census #'s?

 

Still really curious about where those extra people in Ohio are at, and if the pandemic messed with OSU student numbers and hurt our numbers overall. 

 

Pretty sure we will still be over 900,000....but by how much?

 

Maybe I will make a thread with a poll to see what people think?

17 hours ago, Toddguy said:

So when again are we going to get some info?/Census #'s?

 

Still really curious about where those extra people in Ohio are at, and if the pandemic messed with OSU student numbers and hurt our numbers overall. 

 

Pretty sure we will still be over 900,000....but by how much?

 

Maybe I will make a thread with a poll to see what people think?

 

At the earliest, I'm thinking sometime in September.  That's when the redistricting info has to be sent to the states, so we'll probably see something then.    

 

Edit: So the definitive answer is that all data down to the block level will be released by August 16th.  The data will appear on the old ACS data portal by September 30th.  So we’ll be able to see everything within 3 weeks.  

 

Edited July 26, 20213 yr by jonoh81

On 7/25/2021 at 10:01 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

At the earliest, I'm thinking sometime in September.  That's when the redistricting info has to be sent to the states, so we'll probably see something then.    

 

Edit: So the definitive answer is that all data down to the block level will be released by August 16th.  The data will appear on the old ACS data portal by September 30th.  So we’ll be able to see everything within 3 weeks.  

 

So even though the data will appear on the old ACS portal by 9/30 it will be able to be accessed when released on 8/16, right?

So with the info coming soon, what do you think? Just bored and curious as to what others think. 

 

I chose 910,000-917,500.  I just do not see where any more people could have been crammed into the city given the relative lack of housing construction-JMHO. Also I wonder about how the pandemic may have changed the counting of OSU students as well. 

Edited July 29, 20213 yr by Toddguy

12 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

I just do not see where any more people could have been crammed into the city given the relative lack of housing construction

Don't forget about the amount of housing stock in the city that simply wasn't being used before but now is.  There were tons of houses in areas like the near east side, Linden, and Franklinton that were boarded up but have since been rehabbed and now have people living in them.  That being said, I think your choice is probably the correct option.

Edited July 29, 20213 yr by TH3BUDDHA

4 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Don't forget about the amount of housing stock in the city that simply wasn't being used before but now is.  There were tons of houses in areas like the near east side, Linden, and Franklinton that were boarded up but have since been rehabbed and now have people living in them.  That being said, I think your choice is probably the correct option.

Did you vote? 

 

And yes I should consider that. Ten years ago there were so many vacant properties. Not so now. There were tons of vacant places in the neighborhood where I grew up. Now you can drive around and not see a single vacant property or for sale sign. 

32 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

So even though the data will appear on the old ACS portal by 9/30 it will be able to be accessed when released on 8/16, right?

 

Yes, it'll likely show up on the front page of the Census site, and on the 2020 Census data page.  There is no mention on the calendar about exactly when it will arrive, whether on a date before 8/16 or on 8/16 itself.  The last news release just stated that it would be no later than then, so it could technically show up at any time.

Edited July 29, 20213 yr by jonoh81

I said 917K-925K.  Awhile back, I was thinking closer to 930K, but there's been so much weird stuff the past several years that there is more uncertainty than normal.  The pros for a higher number include housing demand being white hot and previously abandoned neighborhoods filling up.  Estimates have also shown Columbus growing at a historically high rate the last decade, and estimates have tended to be too low versus other census results.  The Ohio undercount also probably works in Columbus' favor given it is the state's population growth heart.  Going against the higher number include the census data being played around with too much before, during and after the count, international migration perhaps not being as strong as it normally is given recent immigration policies, economic conditions that may have stifled some relocations and the off possibility that the estimates themselves were too high.  Simply put, there have been a lot of unusual circumstances going into this, so I am tempering my expectations some, and still may end up being a bit on the high side.  Now, that won't mean Columbus doesn't actually have more people than what the official numbers show, but we are guessing what they will show.  

Whatever the ultimate number, I expect Columbus to be near Cleveland's all-time figure, with Columbus ultimately becoming the largest city in Ohio history by 2020 or soon after.

 

 

Edited July 29, 20213 yr by jonoh81

On 7/29/2021 at 4:29 PM, jonoh81 said:

I said 917K-925K.  Awhile back, I was thinking closer to 930K, but there's been so much weird stuff the past several years that there is more uncertainty than normal.  The pros for a higher number include housing demand being white hot and previously abandoned neighborhoods filling up.  Estimates have also shown Columbus growing at a historically high rate the last decade, and estimates have tended to be too low versus other census results.  The Ohio undercount also probably works in Columbus' favor given it is the state's population growth heart.  Going against the higher number include the census data being played around with too much before, during and after the count, international migration perhaps not being as strong as it normally is given recent immigration policies, economic conditions that may have stifled some relocations and the off possibility that the estimates themselves were too high.  Simply put, there have been a lot of unusual circumstances going into this, so I am tempering my expectations some, and still may end up being a bit on the high side.  Now, that won't mean Columbus doesn't actually have more people than what the official numbers show, but we are guessing what they will show.  

Whatever the ultimate number, I expect Columbus to be near Cleveland's all-time figure, with Columbus ultimately becoming the largest city in Ohio history by 2020 or soon after.

 

 

I was looking at population estimates on that WorldPopulationreview site, and I saw that they had significant increases in the population of places like Lincoln Village and Blacklick Estates, like increases of around 10 or 15 percent from 2010 to 2020. These areas did not have any new housing built that I know of in that time period. So these estimates have to be based on vacant housing filling up, or family size increasing as different people moved into these areas. I don't know much about that site, but it is interesting to see that. They have Lincoln Village increasing from 9,032 to 10,549. Interesting. 

 

Also in Lincoln Village there are almost 4500 housing units(pretty much unchanged since 2010) and the 2010 census showed only 3723 households, which suggest a lot of vacant units, and I can attest to this-there were a significant number of vacant homes in 2010-it was very noticeable when driving thru the area-but not so at all now-hardly a vacant unit or for sale sign to be seen. I wonder how much of this would translate over to many Columbus neighborhoods that would be similar?

3 hours ago, Toddguy said:

I was looking at population estimates on that WorldPopulationreview site, and I saw that they had significant increases in the population of places like Lincoln Village and Blacklick Estates, like increases of around 10 or 15 percent from 2010 to 2020. These areas did not have any new housing built that I know of in that time period. So these estimates have to be based on vacant housing filling up, or family size increasing as different people moved into these areas. I don't know much about that site, but it is interesting to see that. They have Lincoln Village increasing from 9,032 to 10,549. Interesting. 

 

Also in Lincoln Village there are almost 4500 housing units(pretty much unchanged since 2010) and the 2010 census showed only 3723 households, which suggest a lot of vacant units, and I can attest to this-there were a significant number of vacant homes in 2010-it was very noticeable when driving thru the area-but not so at all now-hardly a vacant unit or for sale sign to be seen. I wonder how much of this would translate over to many Columbus neighborhoods that would be similar?

 

For the record, those numbers seem to be based on the census data.  10,549 is the 2019 census estimate for Lincoln Village.

 

Housing did show a modest increase, again according to the Census.

Blacklick Estates

Total Housing Units

2010: 3,311

2019: 3,501

Change: +190

Total Occupied Units

2010: 2,980 or 90.0%

2019: 3,364 or 96.1%

Total Vacant Units

2010: 331 or 10%

2019: 137 or 3.9%

So in Blacklick, nearly 200 new units were added over those 9 years, but despite that, the number of vacant homes dropped by almost 59%. 

 

Lincoln Village

Total Housing Units

2010: 4,142

2019: 4,299

Change: +157

Total Occupied Units

2010: 3,826 or 92.4%

2019: 4,151 or 96.6%

Total Vacant Units

2010: 316 or 7.6%

2019: 148 or 3.4%

It's a similar story here.  Total units did increase modestly, but occupancy increased enough to cover all new units and 53% of vacant units.  

 

As to the size of the households in these two places...

Blacklick housing units by occupant number

1-Person

2010: 498

2019: 762

2-Person

2010: 980

2019: 1083

3-Person

2010: 587

2019: 551

4+ Person

2010: 918

2019: 968

Blacklick saw its largest rise in the single-person units, with 2-person being second.  So most of its group seems to being single people or couples with no children.

 

Lincoln Village housing units by occupant number

1-Person

2010: 1247

2019: 1234

2-Person

2010: 1228

2019: 1313

3-Person

2010: 520

2019: 738

4+ Person

2010: 826

2019: 866

In Lincoln Village, the opposite is true.  Single-person households declined, while multi-person households increased the most.  This may have something to do with the larger immigrant population in that part of the city, which tend to have larger households overall.

 

You raise an interesting question about vacancy across the city.  Seems like I have my next data collection project and map to create.

 

 

Edited July 31, 20213 yr by jonoh81

^^ Wow thanks for all of that information.  I will have to figure out where they added those extra 157 units within the 1.9 square mile census designation for Lincoln Village.  I am drawing a blank right now.

 

And it all seems to point to one thing-we need more housing! 

Edited August 1, 20213 yr by Toddguy

i think we are well beyond the passing of the all time ohio city pop high of peak cle, its a forgone inevitability. if not soon or even already, then definitely before the next census. but i do always wonder why cols isn’t bigger than its kissing cousins, austin and indianapolis? steady growth like say minneapolis is probably better, but i wonder why there is no boom period like austin or i guess nashville nowadays? or maybe cols is actually booming right now? i dk. thoughts?? and apologies if that’s off topic here.

2 hours ago, mrnyc said:

but i do always wonder why cols isn’t bigger than its kissing cousins, austin and indianapolis? 

Hey, what's with this "not being bigger than Indy"? 😉  Indianapolis has a 2019 city population estimate of 886,220 - and that's with the city/county merging of surrounding Marion County into the "City of Indianapolis".  The Indy 2019 MSA estimate is 2,048,703.

 

Columbus' 2019 city population estimate is 898,553 and the 2019 MSA estimate is 2,122,271.  BTW, the merged Columbus/Franklin County population is at 1,316,756 (2019 est).

 

Now Austin is bigger at a 2019 city estimate of 978,908 and MSA estimate of 2,295,303.  All three cities are in the same ballpark, with Austin's city and MSA population starting to put some distance from C-BUS and Indy.  But when you consider that Austin is the state capital of the 2nd-most populous state and has all that Texas oil money plus Dell, that's not too surprising.

 

2 hours ago, mrnyc said:

or maybe cols is actually booming right now?

If you ask all the crane counters in the Columbus Projects & Construction threads, they'd say yes.

 

2 hours ago, mrnyc said:

and apologies if that’s off topic here.

This new poll thread is beginning to act like an alternative Columbus Population thread - and that's okay.  I think after the actual 2020 population numbers are released we might merge this into the main Columbus Population thread.  But until then, we can let this thread play itself out.

11 minutes ago, Columbo said:

This new poll thread is beginning to act like an alternative Columbus Population thread - and that's okay.  I think after the actual 2020 population numbers are released we might merge this into the main Columbus Population thread.  But until then, we can let this thread play itself out.

The whole point is to see who is closest, so yeah it can be merged or closed after we find the answer and maybe can discuss it. But yeah some of this talk is getting off the topic.  There is no need to bring up other cities and compare them to Cbus in this thread.

 

*With the way estimates can be off, and with the mess the pandemic caused, we may be surprised on the high end or the low-kind of why I made the thread-to see if most of us get a surprise! lol.  There could also be a thread somewhere about "where are all the extra people from the census at?"

3 hours ago, Columbo said:

Hey, what's with this "not being bigger than Indy"? 😉  Indianapolis has a 2019 city population estimate of 886,220 - and that's with the city/county merging of surrounding Marion County into the "City of Indianapolis".  The Indy 2019 MSA estimate is 2,048,703.

 

Columbus' 2019 city population estimate is 898,553 and the 2019 MSA estimate is 2,122,271.  BTW, the merged Columbus/Franklin County population is at 1,316,756 (2019 est).

 

Now Austin is bigger at a 2019 city estimate of 978,908 and MSA estimate of 2,295,303.  All three cities are in the same ballpark, with Austin's city and MSA population starting to put some distance from C-BUS and Indy.  But when you consider that Austin is the state capital of the 2nd-most populous state and has all that Texas oil money plus Dell, that's not too surprising.

 

 

Austin also has about 100 more square miles in its borders than Columbus does.  At the same size, Columbus would be similar or, I believe, a bit larger than Austin, though Austin is still growing faster overall.  Its metro area is a whopping 1,000 square miles larger than Columbus, despite having fewer counties within it.  Columbus would easily be larger with the same size metro.  Incidentally, Columbus would still easily be the largest city at comparable sizes to the other 2-Cs.  Cleveland would be the largest metro at the same size as the other 2, however.  

 

 

3 hours ago, Toddguy said:

The whole point is to see who is closest, so yeah it can be merged or closed after we find the answer and maybe can discuss it. But yeah some of this talk is getting off the topic.  There is no need to bring up other cities and compare them to Cbus in this thread.

 

*With the way estimates can be off, and with the mess the pandemic caused, we may be surprised on the high end or the low-kind of why I made the thread-to see if most of us get a surprise! lol.  There could also be a thread somewhere about "where are all the extra people from the census at?"

 

There is a chance, though very unlikely, that the Ohio undercount was in the rural areas.  Sometimes when areas are in decline, the decline can end up being overestimated.  That said, I do think we'll see the undercount in the population centers.  

3 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

There is a chance, though very unlikely, that the Ohio undercount was in the rural areas.  Sometimes when areas are in decline, the decline can end up being overestimated.  That said, I do think we'll see the undercount in the population centers.  

Well we will be finding out August 16th, right? 

1 hour ago, Toddguy said:

Well we will be finding out August 16th, right? 

 

That day or before then if the last news was accurate.

On 7/31/2021 at 3:02 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

For the record, those numbers seem to be based on the census data.  10,549 is the 2019 census estimate for Lincoln Village.

 

Housing did show a modest increase, again according to the Census.

Blacklick Estates

Total Housing Units

2010: 3,311

2019: 3,501

Change: +190

Total Occupied Units

2010: 2,980 or 90.0%

2019: 3,364 or 96.1%

Total Vacant Units

2010: 331 or 10%

2019: 137 or 3.9%

So in Blacklick, nearly 200 new units were added over those 9 years, but despite that, the number of vacant homes dropped by almost 59%. 

 

Lincoln Village

Total Housing Units

2010: 4,142

2019: 4,299

Change: +157

Total Occupied Units

2010: 3,826 or 92.4%

2019: 4,151 or 96.6%

Total Vacant Units

2010: 316 or 7.6%

2019: 148 or 3.4%

It's a similar story here.  Total units did increase modestly, but occupancy increased enough to cover all new units and 53% of vacant units.  

 

As to the size of the households in these two places...

Blacklick housing units by occupant number

1-Person

2010: 498

2019: 762

2-Person

2010: 980

2019: 1083

3-Person

2010: 587

2019: 551

4+ Person

2010: 918

2019: 968

Blacklick saw its largest rise in the single-person units, with 2-person being second.  So most of its group seems to being single people or couples with no children.

 

Lincoln Village housing units by occupant number

1-Person

2010: 1247

2019: 1234

2-Person

2010: 1228

2019: 1313

3-Person

2010: 520

2019: 738

4+ Person

2010: 826

2019: 866

In Lincoln Village, the opposite is true.  Single-person households declined, while multi-person households increased the most.  This may have something to do with the larger immigrant population in that part of the city, which tend to have larger households overall.

 

You raise an interesting question about vacancy across the city.  Seems like I have my next data collection project and map to create.

 

 

 

So going through the numbers for Franklin County tracts...

Between 2010-2019, tracts within the county added approximately 30,606 housing units.  Occupied units increased by 53,648.  This means that all new units were filled plus an additional 23,039 units that had been vacant in 2010 were occupied by 2019.  

There still were estimated to be 43,643 vacant units across Franklin County in 2019, but clearly vacant housing had a significant decline the past decade around Columbus and its suburbs.  The average tract vacancy dropped from 13.4% to 9.1%. 

Now, this data is derived from adding up the individual tract figures using the 5-year ACS, but the overall county numbers show a similar pattern.

 

If we just used the overall county figures...

Between 2010-2019, Franklin added 36,681 units.  Occupied units increased by 59,667, meaning that 22,986 previously vacant units were filled during those 9 years.  Vacancy dropped from 12.3% to 7.4%

These numbers are from the 1-year ACS.  

 

Edited August 2, 20213 yr by jonoh81

1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

 

So going through the numbers for Franklin County tracts...

Between 2010-2019, tracts within the county added approximately 30,606 housing units.  Occupied units increased by 53,648.  This means that all new units were filled plus an additional 23,039 units that had been vacant in 2010 were occupied by 2019.  

There still were estimated to be 43,643 vacant units across Franklin County in 2019, but clearly vacant housing had a significant decline the past decade around Columbus and its suburbs.  The average tract vacancy dropped from 13.4% to 9.1%. 

Now, this data is derived from adding up the individual tract figures using the 5-year ACS, but the overall county numbers show a similar pattern.

 

If we just used the overall county figures...

Between 2010-2019, Franklin added 36,681 units.  Occupied units increased by 59,667, meaning that 22,986 previously vacant units were filled during those 9 years.  Vacancy dropped from 12.3% to 7.4%

These numbers are from the 1-year ACS.  

 

 

 

 

 

^^So all of Franklin County only added about 60,000 occupied housing units in 9 years? The average household size in 2010 was 2.38, so that would suggest an addition of about 142,000 for the whole county in 9 years. Columbus was at about 787,000 in 2010. For Columbus to have reached 900,000 then nearly 115,000 of those 142,000 would have to have been added to Columbus instead of suburbs or unincorporated areas in the County?  

 

An addition of only 60,000 or so occupied housing units seems to suggest we may be overestimated...?  Am I getting this wrong?  Was there significant growth in the Fairfield and Delaware sections of Columbus that could add some to the total for the city?

Also at that rate of addition of units and reoccupation of vacant units then the 10 year total would be about 66,500 units, and an addition to Franklin County of about 160,000 people? 

 

Would there be a reason to think that there would be a change in the number of people per occupied unit in the last ten years?  Would more Gen Z and Millennials leaving home later because of financial difficulties(student loans, etc.)cause an increase or keep the number stable?  What about immigration?-has it declined(and the larger household sizes that tend to go with it?)

 

So many questions! I don't want to wait another two weeks lol.

 

What do you think? 

 

Please show me where I am wrong as I do not want us to end up with less than predicted! lol. If we are below 900,000 for 2020 I will be disappointed I will admit.

5 hours ago, Toddguy said:

 

^^So all of Franklin County only added about 60,000 occupied housing units in 9 years? The average household size in 2010 was 2.38, so that would suggest an addition of about 142,000 for the whole county in 9 years. Columbus was at about 787,000 in 2010. For Columbus to have reached 900,000 then nearly 115,000 of those 142,000 would have to have been added to Columbus instead of suburbs or unincorporated areas in the County?  

 

An addition of only 60,000 or so occupied housing units seems to suggest we may be overestimated...?  Am I getting this wrong?  Was there significant growth in the Fairfield and Delaware sections of Columbus that could add some to the total for the city?

Also at that rate of addition of units and reoccupation of vacant units then the 10 year total would be about 66,500 units, and an addition to Franklin County of about 160,000 people? 

 

Would there be a reason to think that there would be a change in the number of people per occupied unit in the last ten years?  Would more Gen Z and Millennials leaving home later because of financial difficulties(student loans, etc.)cause an increase or keep the number stable?  What about immigration?-has it declined(and the larger household sizes that tend to go with it?)

 

So many questions! I don't want to wait another two weeks lol.

 

What do you think? 

 

Please show me where I am wrong as I do not want us to end up with less than predicted! lol. If we are below 900,000 for 2020 I will be disappointed I will admit.

 

You're overthinking it. The 2010-2019 county estimate had it growing by just over 153,000.  Columbus was getting about 76% of the county's growth.  If Franklin County grew by 160,000, the city would get about 122,000 of that growth to be around 908K-909K.  That would be well within expectations.   We're also dealing with estimates and should not take them as exact figures.

I saw somewhere(maybe lurking on citydata?)that there will be some info coming out on the 12th?  I just need more of this kind of data to obsess over. I admit I love it when this kind of info is released and can be pored over and analyzed to death lol.

 

Looks like the consensus is between 902,500 and 917,500 and I agree with this. 

 

I wonder also about the suburbs? Dublin will almost certainly pass 50,000 right? Also (not a suburb!!!lol)Newark should be over that mark as well....just ten days away.....

 

 

*to me this reminds me of getting excited as a kid because a new almanac was coming out and I was waiting to get it.  lol

Edited August 6, 20213 yr by Toddguy

Yes, the data will be out on the 12th.

Three days now! lol.  

On 8/1/2021 at 9:51 AM, mrnyc said:

i think we are well beyond the passing of the all time ohio city pop high of peak cle, its a forgone inevitability. if not soon or even already, then definitely before the next census. but i do always wonder why cols isn’t bigger than its kissing cousins, austin and indianapolis? 

Austin and Nashville are both in states that don't have personal income tax. Until that happens, I don't think you can call them "Kissing Cousins."