Posted March 20, 200619 yr Ohio population 2005 Adams County 28,454 2005 Highland County 42,818 Indiana 2005 Ripley County 27,710 2005 Switerland 9,718 They currently meet the 25% commuter threshold. http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/commuting.html Old 2005 MSA 2,070,441 Old 2005 CSA 2,113,011 New 2005 MSA 2,179,141 New 2005 CSA 2,221,711 It could be more i didn't bother with KY
March 20, 200619 yr They were the only ones to meet the threshold. I checked KY but no others were even close. The dayton MSa would take sometime, because i would have to add up all the numbers from each Dayton MSA county to every single county in the Cincy MSA. I did look at Warren county commutes to Montgomery county only and that was a little over 11k. I'll do a run down on how i did one of the counties later on.
March 20, 200619 yr I'll do the smallest one Switzerland county. Switzerland county has a population of 9,718 In 2001 the the workforce was 2,289 So you need 25% of 2,289 worker to travel to the Cincinnati MSA to be counted as being in the MSA itself. Below is how many workers are commuting to the Cincinnati MSA per county. Dearborn, In 422 Franklin, In 22 Ohio, In 393 Boone, Ky 171 Campbell, Ky 5 Gallatin, Ky 193 Kenton, Ky 35 Butler, Oh 45 Clinton, Oh 4 Hamilton, Oh 288 Warren, Ky 23 Total 1601 That's over 50% of their workforce traveling to the Cincinnati MSA for work.
March 20, 200619 yr The rule is that 25% need to commute to the MSA's central county (i.e. Hamilton), not just anywhere in the MSA.
March 20, 200619 yr Nah it's anywhere in the MSA. I checked Clinton County, 25% of the workforce don't goto Hamilton County.
March 20, 200619 yr Clinton County isn't part of the Cincinnati MSA, though. It's the Wilmington micropolitan area, which is combined with the Cincinnati MSA to form the Cincinnati CSA in some process I don't know much about. Anyway, for the MSA it's definitely got to be a commute to the central county or counties... although it's possible that Butler County might also be considered a central county since Middletown is called a "principal city" in the metro.
March 20, 200619 yr Same criteria except it was already a micropolitan area. The counties i listed are not a micopolitan area that's why they are part of the MSA. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/metroareas122700.pdf Section 3. Outlying Counties A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements: (a) at least 25 percent of the employed residents of the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; or (b) at least 25 percent of the employment in the county is accounted for by workers who reside in the central county or counties of the CBSA.
March 20, 200619 yr People in Cincinnati are also very unlikely to ever commute to these counties. Adams county has like 1 traffic light in the entire county.
March 20, 200619 yr Same criteria except it was already a micropolitan area. The counties i listed are not a micopolitan area that's why they are part of the MSA. http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/metroareas122700.pdf Section 3. Outlying Counties A county qualifies as an outlying county of a CBSA if it meets the following commuting requirements: (a) at least 25 percent of the employed residents of the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; or (b) at least 25 percent of the employment in the county is accounted for by workers who reside in the central county or counties of the CBSA. I'm uncertain what you're trying to say here... the quote you posted (from the same PDF I've been looking at) confirms what I said, that the commuting has to be to the central county or counties. The trick is then to figure out what other counties besides Hamilton might be central counties. (I can't seem to find a list and the definition is a little vague.) It's only the CSAs that take into consideration commuting to the whole metro. In any case, if the four counties you've mentioned met the criteria, they would already be a part of the MSA, as the data are from 2000, predating the MSA revisions.
March 20, 200619 yr Oh ok I'm making up stuff, i think not. It's all there for all to find. http://www.economy.com/home/redef/OMBMetroDefinitions.pdf If specified criteria are met, adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, in various combinations, may become the components of a new set of complementary areas called Combined Statistical Areas. For instance, a Combined Statistical Area may comprise two or more Metropolitan Statistical Areas, a Metropolitan Statistical Area and a Micropolitan Statistical Area, two or more Micropolitan Statistical Areas, or multiple Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas that have social and economic ties as measured by commuting, but at lower levels than are found among counties within Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas. The geographic components of Combined New England City and Town Areas are individual metropolitan and micropolitan NECTAs, in various combinations. The areas that combine retain their own designations as Metropolitan or Micropolitan Statistical Areas (or 2 NECTAs) within the larger Combined Statistical Area (or Combined NECTA). Combinations for adjacent areas with an employment interchange of 25 or more are automatic. Combinations for adjacent areas with an employment interchange of at least 15 but less than 25 are based on local opinion as expressed through the Congressional delegations.
March 20, 200619 yr I think their whole system is flawed. I think they just need to base it on population density in close proximity to more population density. There is nothing in highland and adams county. There is no reason for it to be considered metro Cincinnati. Looking at it on a map, it appears as if Dayton is closer to Cincinnati than these counties.
March 20, 200619 yr unusualfire, are we talking about MSAs or CSAs here? You originally said MSA, and those counties do not meet the MSA criteria because 25% of the workforce does not go to the central counties. They would meet the CSA criteria as in the definition given in your last post, except that they'd have to first be micropolitan areas, which they're not. And that's why they're not part of anything. David, for numbers based on population density, check out the census Urbanized Area stats... those are what I like best for measuring population. I think Cincy is around 1.5 million.
March 20, 200619 yr Pigboy They do not have to work in Hamilton county. As along as 25% of the workforce work inside the Cincinnati MSA. Then they will be part of the MSA. The UA is over 1.7 million now. let me ask you something. Grant County is in cincinnati's MSA right? Wanna bet 25% does not work in Hamilton County, but through out the rest entire region?
March 20, 200619 yr Pigboy They do not have to work in Hamilton county. As along as 25% of the workforce work inside the Cincinnati MSA. Then they will be part of the MSA. The UA is over 1.7 million now. let me ask you something. Grant County is in cincinnati's MSA right? Wanna bet 25% does not work in Hamilton County, but through out the rest entire region? If 25 percent of the people in every county worked in the next county over, then the entire US would be one metro area because eventually they all lead to a county with the big population center. I don't know, maybe my logic is flawed.
March 20, 200619 yr ^It's flawed..lol Trust me I'm right. Commuting happens in metro and micropolitan area's. Not from rural counties to the next rural county. Wow did any of you even look at that commuting page by the census?
March 20, 200619 yr ^It's flawed..lol Trust me I'm right. Commuting happens in metro and micropolitan area's. Not from rural counties to the next rural county. Wow did any of you even look at that commuting page by the census? Okay, but you wanted to include Highland and Adam's county. Say these two counties get absorbed into the Cinci MSA because they have 25 percent of people commuting to areas in the MSA. You're saying that any county that has 25 percent commuting to an MSA can be absorbed into it. So if Adams county is absorbed into Cincinnati MSA and if 25 percent of the people in Pike County were to commute to Adams county or even Clermont (because it would probably be a somewhat reasonable drive to some) then Pike County could then be absorbed into the Cincinnati MSA. It would never stop.
March 20, 200619 yr lol 67 people commuted to Adams County from Pike County. 126 commuted from Pike county to Highland county. So no it wouldn't combine if that what you are thinking.
March 20, 200619 yr I know, but but you're saying that the only criteria is atleast 25 percent of the people commuting to an MSA county...that's not a good way to include counties in a metro area.
March 20, 200619 yr So if (only for example... I know it's not true) say Adams county had only 1000 residents. If 25 percent of them still commute to the closest county included in the MSA then an entire county of only 1000 residents could be included? That's stupid.
March 20, 200619 yr It's not resident. it's workers. If it had 1000 residents. That's about 400-600 workers. Out of them workers 25% or 100-150 would have to travel to another county to combine. There is other criteria too but i'm too tired to look it up.
March 21, 200619 yr Pigboy They do not have to work in Hamilton county. As along as 25% of the workforce work inside the Cincinnati MSA. Then they will be part of the MSA. The UA is over 1.7 million now. let me ask you something. Grant County is in cincinnati's MSA right? Wanna bet 25% does not work in Hamilton County, but through out the rest entire region? Again, it's right there in the definition you posted yourself: (a) at least 25 percent of the employed residents of the county work in the central county or counties of the CBSA; I still can't find a census page telling me which ones are the central counties, although obviously it has to be more than just Hamilton. Based on the definition they give of "central county" I think it would be a county that has at least 50% of its population in the Cincinnati or Middletown UA. My best guess is Hamilton, Butler, Warren, and Clermont in Ohio, and Boone, Campbell, and Kenton in Kentucky. Thus, Grant County is in largely because of commutes to the three NKY counties; but your earlier example of Switzerland IN just barely misses the mark with 567 workers going to the central counties (it needs 572 or 573), so it's not included in the MSA. I've not done it myself, but I bet if you do the same addition for the other three counties (Adams, Highland, and Ripley), it'll fall short of the magic 25% in each case. And as I stated before, the 2003 MSA revisions are based on the very commuting data being discussed here... any place that meets the criteria based on these data is already a part of the MSA. So to address David's concern, a county doesn't get included into the MSA just because of commutes to the next county over unless the next county over is one of the "central counties" (which in the hypothetical example, Adams or Highland would not be).
March 21, 200619 yr Personally i don't think you know what you're talking about. I have been around these forums for years. Heck you yourself don't even know what the central counties are. As far is why it hasn't the census added them. Maybe they missed it.They are known to make mistakes. The core counties is where the UA is located. Clinton,Oh, Ohio, In, Gallatin,Ky, Franklin,In can't be central core counties because the UA does not enter them at all. Certainly the rest are which combined have the 25% threshold. Anyway expect these to be included in the MSA officially by 2010.
March 21, 200619 yr okay, so here's a silly question...that may be ignorant...but I'm going to ask it anyway ;-) With the change to the census on how MSA are accounted for, what does this mean for CIN-DAY? Come 2010 will CIN-DAY happen or are the numbers not there, b/c of the new classificaiton?
March 21, 200619 yr If they don't meet the 25% threshold, maybe not, but the UA is the key now. If it's connected totally you don't need the 25% threshold. It needs a little work but it should happen.
March 21, 200619 yr How is the UA classified? UA meaning Urbanized area...right? I can't drive down 75 from Dayton to Cincy without seeing a huge housing/industry boom. The areas in warren and butler counites along 75 are getting developed so quickly, it's out of control.
March 21, 200619 yr This is the 2000 UA area. That are urban clusters of 1000 people per square mile.
March 21, 200619 yr WOW! it's almost completely connected in that diagram from 2000. I'm sure it's filled in a bit more in the last 6 years....should be interesting to see what it looks like now or in 2010.
March 21, 200619 yr lol Trust me I'm right. Personally i don't think you know what you're talking about. I have been around these forums for years. Heck you yourself don't even know what the central counties are. As far is why it hasn't the census added them. Maybe they missed it.They are known to make mistakes. Dude, you must realize that "trust me, I know what I'm talking about" is a pretty weak argument, especially when it's accompanied by saying Pigboy doesn't know what he's talking about (which is stupid, dude's studying this stuff in school, and you've...er...read lots of boards...riiiiight...), and further backed up by saying the census bureau must have made a mistake...riiiiiiight... Look, it's a pretty plain reading of the very texts you posted - MSA's require the commute to be to the central counties. Those are different from the outlying counties. Here's another quote from the census's website: Each MA must contain either a place with a minimum population of 50,000 or a U.S. Census Bureau-defined urbanized area and a total MA population of at least 100,000 (75,000 in New England). An MA contains one or more central counties. An MA also may include one or more outlying counties that have close economic and social relationships with the central county. An outlying county must have a specified level of commuting to the central counties and also must meet certain standards regarding metropolitan character, such as population density, urban population, and population growth. So, Pigboy and the census and a plain reading of even the things you've posted, we should ignore all of that and trust you because you've read boards for years...yeah, no prob...
March 21, 200619 yr ^ No need to get bent out of shape. This is the internet. Everyone has opinions. And yours is wrong in this case
March 21, 200619 yr This is the internet. Everyone has opinions. This isn't the internet, this is urbanohio.
March 22, 200619 yr Where do more commuters go every day, Do you think that more people travel from homes in Montgomery County to jobs in Hamilton and Southern Butler Counties or more people who live in Cincy commute to Dayton to work? What I am trying to ask is if you guys feel that more and more people who work in Dayton are choosing to live closer to Cincinnati or if many of the people who live in Dayton choose to travel to jobs in Cincinnati. (If this makes any sense)
March 22, 200619 yr Where do more commuters go every day, Do you think that more people travel from homes in Montgomery County to jobs in Hamilton and Southern Butler Counties or more people who live in Cincy commute to Dayton to work? What I am trying to ask is if you guys feel that more and more people who work in Dayton are choosing to live closer to Cincinnati or if many of the people who live in Dayton choose to travel to jobs in Cincinnati. (If this makes any sense) It's hard to say which direction has more commuters because you have to decide where the boundary between Dayton and Cincinnati is in order to know in which direction that boundary is being crossed. There's really not much commuting between the central parts of each metro, but of course there's the whole fuzzy area in between, and you can't see the patterns with the county-level data available from the Census. Some Dayton suburbs are technically in the Cincinnati metropolitan area, so officially you see a fair number of commuters going from (metro) Cincinnati to Dayton, but in reality we know that's not exactly the case. So I don't have a good guess for an answer other than to say that real crossover commuting is not especially significant in either direction; it's more that there is a common pool of residents in the middle from which both cities draw.
March 23, 200619 yr This is exactly why Cincy and Dayton...CIN-DAY is going to become one metro area, it seems like every person I run into says they decided to move to Mason, West Chester, Lebanon...etc. etc. B/C they work in Dayton and their wife or husband work in Cincy. It splits the commute equally for each person. Also, we SOOOOO need to get a light rail/high speed transit system between the 2 cities. It would have such a huge economic impact.
March 23, 200619 yr I think i made a thread last year about a commuter bus line non stop between Downtown Cincinnati and Downtown Dayton. That would give you an idea of what kinda ridership you might have on a commuter rail line. Of course the price has to be right for people to get out their cars. i think it will once gas is back over $3 an gallon.
March 23, 200619 yr I calculated some numbers based on the criteria for combining metro areas into CSAs. Such a combination is based on the "employment interchange measure," which is the sum of the percent of workers in the smaller metro commuting to the larger metro and the percent of employment in the smaller metro accounted for by workers coming from the larger metro. If it's 25 or higher, they are automatically combined; if it's between 15 and 25, they are combined if local opinion favors it. In 2000, the measure between the Dayton and Cincinnati MSAs was about 9. I suppose by 2010 it could be up to 15, paving the way for the Southwest Ohio CSA of Doom.
March 23, 200619 yr As unusual fire pointed out, if the UA is connected, the employement interchange measure becomes a moot point. By 2010, I think the UA will be completely connected. You can thank all of the developers along I-75 in warren and butler couonties for that! so my best guess is that 2010 it becomes one csa...with jeebus as the middle point.
March 23, 200619 yr I guess only time will tell. should be interesting come 2010. I wonder what the vegas odds would be??!?!
March 23, 200619 yr It seems like the same thing would happen with Milwaukee and Chicago. That whole stretch in between is already pretty urbanized and is right on Lake Michigan.
March 23, 200619 yr Has anyone caught all the land that being torn up around the I-71-75 split? A ton of development is going on down there.
March 24, 200619 yr Contiguous urbanization between Cincinnati and Dayton hasnt happened yet. The areas where the urbanized areas nearly touch is in the valley of the Great Miami River, due to a string of older factory towns like Miamisburg, Franklin, Middletown and so forth. There is still quite a bit of open space along the river between Miamisburg and Franklin, and also some between Franklin and Middeltown. There is also open space between Middeltown and Hamilton, to some degree. The big development boom is not happening in the valley, but on the high country along I-75, where there is sort of an advancing patchwork of subdivisions north p into Bulter and Warren Counties. The big gap is around Monroe interchange, by the prison (east of I-75) and the AK Steel plant (west of I-75). This open space gap in the vicintiy of the Monroe interchange is sort of the boundary between the areas influenced by Cincinnait suburbanization and the areas influenced by Dayton suburbanization (and Middletown).
March 24, 200619 yr SO do you think it'll be fully connected? and if so, when? best guess of course :-)I know Ryan Homes is moving into areas like Franklin and Middleton, throwing up homes like crazy!
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