Perhaps this topic has been fully-vetted elsewhere but just in case it hasn’t... I’ve been surprised at the lack of attention around what I foresee as a tax revenue apocalypse for Cleveland as well as many other large cities.  But focusing on Cleveland, COVID combined with perhaps the worst riots in around 50 years (Cleveland is still recovering from those riots from a half century ago), isn’t the city in a doomsday scenario with the work from home world we are now in?  I don’t think this is just a fad.  I think work from home is here to stay for a lot of people, especially high-earners / income tax payers.  This tax revenue is going to stay in the suburbs at a suddenly much higher rate than anyone expected.  Isn’t this backbreaking for a city like Cleveland which depends so much on tax revenue from out of city workers?  It seems like a revenge of the suburbs dynamic.  Of course so goes the city, eventually so goes the suburbs.  If there was a time for necessary regionalism, isn’t that time now?  I feel like Cleveland is the Titanic and it just hit the iceberg and no one thinks it’s a big deal and is too distracted to care anyway.  But the ship is sinking and banding together as a region long ago might have kept it afloat.  Too late now?  Am I being way too pessimistic?  I hope so. 

What was the iceberg? If anything, the city's fast-rising wealth over the past four years is cause for celebration. It represents a diversification of incomes rather than a concentration of poverty.

19 minutes ago, KJP said:

What was the iceberg? If anything, the city's fast-rising wealth over the past four years is cause for celebration. It represents a diversification of incomes rather than a concentration of poverty.

 

Yeah I'm with Ken here. 

 

While there's no doubt some issues ahead, if anything, I think the anticipated budget shortfalls will accelerate regionalism - which will be a good thing in the long term. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland proper includes East Cleveland, Garfield Heights, Warrensville Heights, Richmond Heights, Brooklyn, and Euclid in the next 5-10 years. With Parma, Parma Heights, Cleveland Hts., Seven Hills, Brook Park and Fairview Park not far behind. 

16 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Yeah I'm with Ken here. 

 

While there's no doubt some issues ahead, if anything, I think the anticipated budget shortfalls will accelerate regionalism - which will be a good thing in the long term. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland proper includes East Cleveland, Garfield Heights, Warrensville Heights, Richmond Heights, Brooklyn, and Euclid in the next 5-10 years. With Parma, Parma Heights, Cleveland Hts., Seven Hills, Brook Park and Fairview Park not far behind. 

 

That's a really interesting take and you may be right.  A lot of these smaller communities could be in a bad place financially soon.

 

1 hour ago, NYC Boomerang said:

  I think work from home is here to stay for a lot of people, especially high-earners / income tax payers. 

 

Like off-shoring, work at home has definite limitations that can't be overcome with Zoom or phones. I suspect what we're seeing now is its peak.  No doubt some will stay at home, but probably fewer than people think.

 

I worked at home in one job and found it very isolating. So many little problems which could have been solved by proximity became mountains when delay got involved.

1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland proper includes East Cleveland, Garfield Heights, Warrensville Heights, Richmond Heights, Brooklyn, and Euclid in the next 5-10 years. With Parma, Parma Heights, Cleveland Hts., Seven Hills, Brook Park and Fairview Park not far behind. 

 

Do you really believe that to be possible? Annexations like that seem to be as monumental of tasks as are constitutional amendments. The fact that EC has lasted so long in its current state has driven that point home. Regionalism is so, so, sorely needed in this area, and I hope you're right.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by mu2010

Love the optimism here and I'm not saying suburbs are not going to be impacted, but I think the city of Cleveland is in a grave situation because of its reliance on municipal income tax from non-residents.  Check out this Crain's article... the Brookings Institution examined 139 cities nationwide on their dependence on municipal income tax revenue.  Four of the top five were in Ohio... Cleveland was #5 with 67.5% of revenue being from municipal income tax which is largely from non-residents.  Throw on top lost revenue from sporting events, hotel tax, closed stores, etc.... what am I missing?  What happened in the past is the past.  This is a dark future unless the federal government bails out municipalities.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/editorials/crains-editorial-numbers

 

I think you all need to reconsider your expectations around companies having employees return to their workplaces.  Companies are getting a crash course in how cost-effective and efficient it can be to have people work from home.  RITA taxpayers will be getting a crash course in the cost effectiveness of not working in Cleveland.  This is a big problem.  Fast rising wealth?  Cleveland remains one of the poorest cities in the country.  It remains one of the most reliant cities on suburban taxpayers.  Those who can afford it are trending now towards more spacious single-family residence living and away from multi-family (city) living.  How things have reversed course so quickly is amazing.

 

Let it be heard... I am sounding the alarm!  We are in the perfect storm, we are headfirst into the largest iceberg this city has ever seen (I truly believe that).  All of us here have been trumpeting regionalism.  Now is the time.  But I fear it is way too late.  I've wondered if 2016 will be the peak for this city and region in my lifetime.  I hope not but I worry that might be the case.  Bottoms up.     

36 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland proper includes East Cleveland, Garfield Heights, Warrensville Heights, Richmond Heights, Brooklyn, and Euclid in the next 5-10 years. With Parma, Parma Heights, Cleveland Hts., Seven Hills, Brook Park and Fairview Park not far behind. 

How has a consolidated approach worked out in places like Indianapolis, Nashville, Jacksonville, Miami and others? That representative short list shows a list of rather successful cities, at first glance.  If the short list of cities listed by @YABO713 was incorporated into Cleveland, it would move from 53rd largest to 38th largest in the USA, neck in neck with Atlanta. If the larger list was incorporated, Cleveland would rank as 23rd largest, just ahead of Nashville and close to Boston. I’m not too familiar with the history of the consolidation conversation in Cleveland, but I’m sure others are. 

15 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

Love the optimism here and I'm not saying suburbs are not going to be impacted, but I think the city of Cleveland is in a grave situation because of its reliance on municipal income tax from non-residents.  Check out this Crain's article... the Brookings Institution examined 139 cities nationwide on their dependence on municipal income tax revenue.  Four of the top five were in Ohio... Cleveland was #5 with 67.5% of revenue being from municipal income tax which is largely from non-residents.  Throw on top lost revenue from sporting events, hotel tax, closed stores, etc.... what am I missing?  What happened in the past is the past.  This is a dark future unless the federal government bails out municipalities.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/editorials/crains-editorial-numbers

 

I think you all need to reconsider your expectations around companies having employees return to their workplaces.  Companies are getting a crash course in how cost-effective and efficient it can be to have people work from home.  RITA taxpayers will be getting a crash course in the cost effectiveness of not working in Cleveland.  This is a big problem.  Fast rising wealth?  Cleveland remains one of the poorest cities in the country.  It remains one of the most reliant cities on suburban taxpayers.  Those who can afford it are trending now towards more spacious single-family residence living and away from multi-family (city) living.  How things have reversed course so quickly is amazing.

 

Let it be heard... I am sounding the alarm!  We are in the perfect storm, we are headfirst into the largest iceberg this city has ever seen (I truly believe that).  All of us here have been trumpeting regionalism.  Now is the time.  But I fear it is way too late.  I've wondered if 2016 will be the peak for this city and region in my lifetime.  I hope not but I worry that might be the case.  Bottoms up.     

 

Stop it already with your doom and gloom predictions. This is nonsense.

28 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

Do you really believe that to be possible? Annexations like that seem to be as monumental of tasks as are constitutional amendments. The fact that EC has lasted so long in its current state has driven that point home. Regionalism is so, so, sorely needed in this area, and I hope you're right.

 

The framework for annexation under Ohio law makes it very challenging in a region like NEO with developed city governments. It will always be very hard to achieve consolidation, because city councils and mayors will look to micro-level fixes for budget shortfalls (e.g., Cleveland Heights FINALLY joining Cleveland Water recently). We need a push for consolidation so powerful that it results in legislative change at the Ohio statehouse. I think if economic turmoil were enough to do the trick we would have seen a movement toward that in 2009.

20 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

Love the optimism here and I'm not saying suburbs are not going to be impacted, but I think the city of Cleveland is in a grave situation because of its reliance on municipal income tax from non-residents.  Check out this Crain's article... the Brookings Institution examined 139 cities nationwide on their dependence on municipal income tax revenue.  Four of the top five were in Ohio... Cleveland was #5 with 67.5% of revenue being from municipal income tax which is largely from non-residents.  Throw on top lost revenue from sporting events, hotel tax, closed stores, etc.... what am I missing?  What happened in the past is the past.  This is a dark future unless the federal government bails out municipalities.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/editorials/crains-editorial-numbers

 

I think you all need to reconsider your expectations around companies having employees return to their workplaces.  Companies are getting a crash course in how cost-effective and efficient it can be to have people work from home.  RITA taxpayers will be getting a crash course in the cost effectiveness of not working in Cleveland.  This is a big problem.  Fast rising wealth?  Cleveland remains one of the poorest cities in the country.  It remains one of the most reliant cities on suburban taxpayers.  Those who can afford it are trending now towards more spacious single-family residence living and away from multi-family (city) living.  How things have reversed course so quickly is amazing.

 

Let it be heard... I am sounding the alarm!  We are in the perfect storm, we are headfirst into the largest iceberg this city has ever seen (I truly believe that).  All of us here have been trumpeting regionalism.  Now is the time.  But I fear it is way too late.  I've wondered if 2016 will be the peak for this city and region in my lifetime.  I hope not but I worry that might be the case.  Bottoms up.     

Plenty of companies are having their employees returning. I barely know any companies that are going full time wfh now. Sure there may be more opportunities for wfh in the future, but Zoom calls aren't the answer to everything. Also going away from multi-family city living? Id like to see the evidence of that claim. Enjoy that drink by yourself because the city will continue to progress and be more resilient. Growth and development will continue and the potential is at an all time high in the downtown area and neighboring areas. I get the worrying about this, but the city is not going to shut down.

Ohio's municipal income tax system is screwed up, to be sure, when compared to other states, our cities rely on taxing employees far more. This is what drives a lot of the "poaching" you see when Westlake "steals" American Greetings, etc. It needs reform.

I don't see consolidation ever happening here.  Couldn't even annex East Cleveland which is circling the drain.  All the mayors, police chiefs, fire chiefs, law directors, etc. of the various fiefdoms are not going to relinquish their power.

If a company is located in the city, but a worker is working from home 3 days a week(in the suburb they are living in) and going into the office(in the city)for 2 days a week, Then who gets the income tax? Is it split?  How does that work?

 

*I think some form of some days in the workplace, some days working from home may be more likely than just all working at home.

 

Columbus is in the same boat as Cleveland here regarding tax revenues.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by Toddguy

10 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Stop it already with your doom and gloom predictions. This is nonsense.

He literally provided numbers and facts of how tax revenue is generated in Cleveland. I get some people hate the negativity of this region, but alot of it is pretty sound. Just because there are people with money moving into luxury apartments doesn't mean the citizen wealth of the city has significantly increased. The city proper is still quite poor and still heavily relies on the hundreds of thousands of suburbanites who commute for tax revenue. 

2 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

If a company is located in the city, but a worker is working from home 3 days a week(in the suburb they are living in) and going into the office(in the city)for 2 days a week, Then who gets the income tax? Is it split?  How does that work?

 

I don't think there's a lot of true compliance with the letter of the law. I used to travel all over the state to clients in a previous job, and we only paid tax to the home office city. I know plenty of people working from home (even before the pandemic) that just allow the payroll deduction to go through and pay tax to the city of the office. I believe that technically you are supposed to pay tax by physical location but very few are doing this. They make pro athletes do it, as some of the highest paid traveling salaried employees, haha.

 

Now, if WFH truly changes things to such a large extent that we start to see wider enforcement or even reform, I think things could get... interesting, as @NYC Boomerang suggested.

2 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

I don't think there's a lot of true compliance with the letter of the law. I used to travel all over the state to clients in a previous job, and we only paid tax to the home office city. I know plenty of people working from home (even before the pandemic) that just allow the payroll deduction to go through and pay tax to the city of the office. I believe that technically you are supposed to pay tax by physical location but very few are doing this. They make pro athletes do it, as some of the highest paid traveling salaried employees, haha.

 

Now, if WFH truly changes things to such a large extent that we start to see wider enforcement or even reform, I think things could get... interesting, as @NYC Boomerang suggested.

Thanks.

50 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

 

Those who can afford it are trending now towards more spacious single-family residence living and away from multi-family (city) living.  How things have reversed course so quickly is amazing.

 

There's zero evidence this is true.

16 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

I don't think there's a lot of true compliance with the letter of the law. I used to travel all over the state to clients in a previous job, and we only paid tax to the home office city. I know plenty of people working from home (even before the pandemic) that just allow the payroll deduction to go through and pay tax to the city of the office. I believe that technically you are supposed to pay tax by physical location but very few are doing this. They make pro athletes do it, as some of the highest paid traveling salaried employees, haha.

 

Now, if WFH truly changes things to such a large extent that we start to see wider enforcement or even reform, I think things could get... interesting, as @NYC Boomerang suggested.

Yeah...Ohio tax law is exceptionally complicated. Here’s a flow chart to figure out where you owe. Pretty much depends on how many days you work in a certain city (greater or less than 20 per year)....but it’s obviously not that simple.

 

source: https://www.ohioauditor.gov/trainings/lgoc/2018/Municipal Income Tax.pdf

People that enjoy living in or spending a lot of time time in cities will likely keep doing so. Very few of them are going to decide to move to the 'burbs based on these events.

 

The type of person who only comes downtown a few times per year to check out new restaurants or whatever, is less likely to return in the near future. The number of downtown M-F 9-5 office workers may never return to the January 2020 peak in most American cities.

 

Cities need to use this opportunity to remake themselves as pleasant places to live. The reduction in traffic and new social distancing guidelines are perfect reasons to take public space away from cars and turn it into wider sidewalks, bike lanes, new public plazas, etc. Stop putting so much effort into chasing the next Fortune 500 company HQ  and worrying about the commute of suburbanites driving downtown, and instead improve the quality of life for your citizens.

4 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

There's zero evidence this is true.

There is evidence all over the internet.  Suburbs especially around NYC are exploding with housing demand.  Cleveland will not see as much of an impact but there will be some.  This is one of a variety of issues encircling the city.  https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-real-estate-housing-market-trend-new-york-city-trends/6147512/

 

As far as how municipal income tax is supposed to be paid, it is supposed to be paid based on where an employee is physically working.  Currently however, the state government is having employees continue to pay as if they are working from their usual workplaces.  But that was done as a temporary accommodation for companies' HR departments so they didn't have to deal with the nightmare of overturning their payroll systems overnight.  This is expected to be overturned in the courts and I think employees will have to pay taxes based on their physical location.  If companies aren't following this then it will be interesting to see if cities start to ramp up enforcement as a dog eat dog world settles in among municipalities.  

 

To be clear, I love Cleveland.  But this is a bad situation.  It should not be ignored.  This is like the Great Recession, the race riots, a pandemic all wrapped into one and its hitting a very poor City of Cleveland that has been ripped apart by the region around it and the global economy.  When the Great Depression hit, Cleveland was one of the riches cities in the world with likely much better leadership and a more cohesive region.  Grab your popcorn and your face mask. 

6 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

There is evidence all over the internet.  Suburbs especially around NYC are exploding with housing demand.  Cleveland will not see as much of an impact but there will be some.  This is one of a variety of issues encircling the city.  https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-real-estate-housing-market-trend-new-york-city-trends/6147512/

 

As far as how municipal income tax is supposed to be paid, it is supposed to be paid based on where an employee is physically working.  Currently however, the state government is having employees continue to pay as if they are working from their usual workplaces.  But that was done as a temporary accommodation for companies' HR departments so they didn't have to deal with the nightmare of overturning their payroll systems overnight.  This is expected to be overturned in the courts and I think employees will have to pay taxes based on their physical location.  If companies aren't following this then it will be interesting to see if cities start to ramp up enforcement as a dog eat dog world settles in among municipalities.  

 

To be clear, I love Cleveland.  But this is a bad situation.  It should not be ignored.  This is like the Great Recession, the race riots, a pandemic all wrapped into one and its hitting a very poor City of Cleveland that has been ripped apart by the region around it and the global economy.  When the Great Depression hit, Cleveland was one of the riches cities in the world with likely much better leadership and a more cohesive region.  Grab your popcorn and your face mask. 

I don't know if NYC is the best example to use considering it has by far the highest density and has been hit the hardest by the virus. Compared to NYC, most US cities have density that is comparable to NYC suburbs rather than the city itself. Even Staten Island has 8,000 persons per square mile-much denser than most US cities.

 

Are people trying to flee Denver city, Atlanta city, or other central cities? Will people move out of Lakewood and into Cleveland or some other city since Lakewood is the densest city in Ohio?

 

And thanks for the other info.

3 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

I don't know if NYC is the best example to use considering it has by far the highest density and has been hit the hardest by the virus. Compared to NYC, most US cities have density that is comparable to NYC suburbs rather than the city itself. Even Staten Island has 8,000 persons per square mile-much denser than most US cities.

 

Are people trying to flee Denver city, Atlanta city, or other central cities? Will people move out of Lakewood and into Cleveland or some other city since Lakewood is the densest city in Ohio?

 

And thanks for the other info.

Everything is relative right.  I think this will just extend income inequality.  Wealthier areas will fare much better and poorer areas will fare much worse.  Yes I think people, especially high taxpayers, will leave cities in general or at least move to them at a lower rate.  It's all about revenue and who gets it.  This will be a revenue implosion for Cleveland and many cities.  The Brookings study does not foretell a bright future for places like Cleveland under the current economic and political situation. 

 

As far making Cleveland a better place to live... that's great and all but bike lanes and such, which are great, don't get me wrong, are not going to fill the budget gap.  Regionalism is the only remedy I see right now.  Of course that takes time and thus I am very concerned.  

1 hour ago, AsDustinFoxWouldSay said:

He literally provided numbers and facts of how tax revenue is generated in Cleveland. I get some people hate the negativity of this region, but alot of it is pretty sound. Just because there are people with money moving into luxury apartments doesn't mean the citizen wealth of the city has significantly increased. The city proper is still quite poor and still heavily relies on the hundreds of thousands of suburbanites who commute for tax revenue. 

 

Light on facts....Just one's man prediction of the future.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by Clefan98

Meanwhile, in the local burbs:

 

• Olmsted Falls announces pandemic-related furloughs and layoffs
• Brook Park braces for 'tough times,' temporary layoffs
• Strongsville considers layoffs, pay cuts as income tax revenues drop due to COVID-19 pandemic
• BROADVIEW HEIGHTS, Ohio -- Broadview Heights has laid off all of the city’s part-time workers -- and some nonessential full-timers
• Cleveland Heights announces layoffs of over 100 city workers
• Parma Mayor Tim DeGeeter said his city was laying off more than 40 workers for 14 weeks.
• Solon officials announced that they would be making “significant” budget cuts due to coronavirus.
• Twinsburg laying off 36 city employees

50 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

The Brookings study dos not foretell a bright future for places like Cleveland under the current economic and political situation.

 

BTW the "study" you keep mentioning states this: Unfortunately, the potential impact on most local budgets is largely unknown

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/31/when-will-your-city-feel-the-fiscal-impact-of-covid-19/

1 hour ago, skiwest said:

I don't see consolidation ever happening here.  Couldn't even annex East Cleveland which is circling the drain.  All the mayors, police chiefs, fire chiefs, law directors, etc. of the various fiefdoms are not going to relinquish their power.

 

I think if Mayor Jackson had been more aggressive about taking over EC and Gov. Kasich more supportive twhen the EC mayor suggested it, the merger could have happened; but in the end neither one was.  Jackson would have needed to "sell" the advantages of a merger to both EC-ers and Clevelanders, something he's not very good at, even though the advantages were many and obvious.  Meanwhile Budish stood idly by, something he *IS* very good at.  Maybe a few year from now with different leaders, something can happen.

1 hour ago, NYC Boomerang said:

There is evidence all over the internet.  Suburbs especially around NYC are exploding with housing demand.  Cleveland will not see as much of an impact but there will be some.  This is one of a variety of issues encircling the city.  https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-real-estate-housing-market-trend-new-york-city-trends/6147512/

People are still searching for homes, but traffic on Zillow does not show more urbanites suddenly looking to move into suburban or rural areas. Nor are waves of home shoppers seeking to flee large cities for smaller ones. What's more, while current and prospective buyers in urban areas are most likely to say the coronavirus pandemic has affected where they want to live, 70% of the nearly 10,700 US adults we surveyed in April say they want to live in an area that is equally or even more urban than the neighborhood where they currently live.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/perspectives/homeowners-renters-cities-zillow-coronavirus/index.html

Clefan98 can keep his head in the sand.  That's fine with me.  Keep hoping for the best.  That seems to work for Browns fans.

 

https://thecityfix.com/blog/will-covid-19-affect-urban-planning-rogier-van-den-berg/

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2020-04-15/survey-coronavirus-pandemic-causes-painful-city-budget-shortfalls

 

What facts suggest that it doesn't matter that 67.5% of Cleveland's budget depends on municipal tax revenue?  What fact suggest that it doesn't matter that the unemployment rate is skyrocketing?  What universe are you living in?  If Cleveland can't afford basic services for its citizens, why are people going to want to live there?

 

 

2 hours ago, mu2010 said:

 

Do you really believe that to be possible? Annexations like that seem to be as monumental of tasks as are constitutional amendments. The fact that EC has lasted so long in its current state has driven that point home. Regionalism is so, so, sorely needed in this area, and I hope you're right.

 

My thought being that the County would have to hold a big stick in this regard and essentially incentivize/extort (lol) the suburbs into falling in line with services. We can all agree that the City of Cleveland doesn't have the cache to start the process... but the County could look at this as (1) a way to prioritize its service offerings over that of municipalities, and (2) a way to get Cleveland more funding as the population increases with annexation 

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/859713720/american-cities-and-towns-face-financial-challenges-during-the-pandemic

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/politics/state-city-budget-cuts-covid/index.html

 

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/in-depth/2020/04/30/368324/houston-faces-worst-budget-crisis-in-modern-history/

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/nyregion/nyc-budget-coronavirus.html

2 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

 

The framework for annexation under Ohio law makes it very challenging in a region like NEO with developed city governments. It will always be very hard to achieve consolidation, because city councils and mayors will look to micro-level fixes for budget shortfalls (e.g., Cleveland Heights FINALLY joining Cleveland Water recently). We need a push for consolidation so powerful that it results in legislative change at the Ohio statehouse. I think if economic turmoil were enough to do the trick we would have seen a movement toward that in 2009.

 

Let's not forget the doomsday forecasts every municipal police and fire union will predict. 

13 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

My thought being that the County would have to hold a big stick in this regard and essentially incentivize/extort (lol) the suburbs into falling in line with services. We can all agree that the City of Cleveland doesn't have the cache to start the process... but the County could look at this as (1) a way to prioritize its service offerings over that of municipalities, and (2) a way to get Cleveland more funding as the population increases with annexation 

There are all kinds of other implications regarding consolidation. If Cleveland merged with Cuyahoga County, then the black percentage of the population would drop from a near majority at right around 50%, to only 30% of the population. Will blacks or other minorities be willing to give up that much political clout?-especially given what is happening in the nation right now?

 

Consolidation has been used to "water down" black political power(Jacksonville comes to mind)before.  This might be a hard sell on both sides.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by Toddguy

23 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

There are all kinds of other implications regarding consolidation. If Cleveland merged with Cuyahoga County, then the black percentage of the population would drop from a near majority at right around 50%, to only 30% of the population. Will blacks or other minorities be willing to give up that much political clout?-especially given what is happening in the nation right now?

 

Consolidation has been used to "water down" black political power(Jacksonville comes to mind)before.  This might be a hard sell on both sides.

 

All you had to say is Jacksonville and I'll withdraw my support. 

 

Worst. City. In. America. Bar None. 

57 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

There are all kinds of other implications regarding consolidation. If Cleveland merged with Cuyahoga County, then the black percentage of the population would drop from a near majority at right around 50%, to only 30% of the population. Will blacks or other minorities be willing to give up that much political clout?-especially given what is happening in the nation right now?

 

Consolidation has been used to "water down" black political power(Jacksonville comes to mind)before.  This might be a hard sell on both sides.

 

This is a good argument against consolidation that I had never heard or considered before your post. I'd still love to see more consolidation, and you could probably do that without significant racial dilution by just absorbing some inner-belt suburbs (perhaps, Cleveland Heights, Euclid, Euclid Heights, University Heights, Shaker Heights, East Cleveland, Lakewood, Brooklyn, Linnfield, Newburgh Heights, Cuyahoga Heights, Maple Heights, North Randall, Warrensville Heights). 

I think this entire discussion is premature. Get back to me in a few years to see where we are. I think we all need that level of step-back to have some perspective before making any declarations of pervasive change. Fact is, metropolitan regions and the societies that shape them don't change quickly. The only way any of this relates to the Titanic is that societies don't corner worth a damn.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by KJP

2 hours ago, NYC Boomerang said:

There is evidence all over the internet.  Suburbs especially around NYC are exploding with housing demand.  Cleveland will not see as much of an impact but there will be some.  This is one of a variety of issues encircling the city.  https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-real-estate-housing-market-trend-new-york-city-trends/6147512/

 

That's not evidence. It says realtors are noticing the trend and then provides zero evidence of the trend. Then they interview one person. It's all anecdotal. The actual data, provided by @Clefan98 from Zillow, shows that people looking for houses are looking for a place that is MORE urban than their current location. Which makes total sense to me. Lockdown has been fine for me. I can walk to parks, I can go get carryout, I have lots of neighbors that I can do socially-distanced hangouts with on our block. I have gotten in my car, on average, once every two weeks. It's been a beautiful silver lining in all of this craziness. But if I lived out in the country, or on a one acre suburban lot in a subdivision--I would imagine I'd be going crazy. 

 

Look, I don't know what the impact will be, and neither do you. Maybe people will flock to cities, maybe they'll abandon them. Probably, not much will change when it comes to people's choice of where to live. But all I'm saying is that, so far, there's no data indicating what you're claiming. Before the pandemic, people were looking for more urban locations, and that hasn't really changed yet.

7 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

 

This is a good argument against consolidation that I had never heard or considered before your post. I'd still love to see more consolidation, and you could probably do that without significant racial dilution by just absorbing some inner-belt suburbs (perhaps, Cleveland Heights, Euclid, Euclid Heights, University Heights, Shaker Heights, East Cleveland, Lakewood, Brooklyn, Linnfield, Newburgh Heights, Cuyahoga Heights, Maple Heights, North Randall, Warrensville Heights). 

A compromise might be a targeted consolidation rather than a county/city merger. But I am not familiar with anything like that happening before. I have read and heard numerous times that Jacksonville consolidated with Duval County for the specific reason of keeping Jacksonville from becoming a majority black city. 

 

Unfortunately this has to be considered when talking about consolidation of municipalities, especially county/city mergers. 

 

*At the same time, Cuyahoga County is about 30% black, And Columbus City is about 30% black as well, And we just had a two time black mayor(Coleman), currently have a black(and gay)city council president(who just got sprayed in the face with mace the other day), so it does not necessarily mean the end of the world to have a 30% black population...it just depends on each circumstance and how you view Cbus as a functioning government when it comes to black political power-I admit I am not up to par on this part of it-particularly how might be between Cleveland and the rest of Cuyahoga County-I am just not informed enough on that to give a good opinion.

 

 

*and I agree with KJP-this is all long term and currently premature.

Edited June 1, 20205 yr by Toddguy

Hmmm.. https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/cheaper-cities-including-cleveland-stand-gain-work-home-shuffle

The Jacksonville argument is certainly notable, but, probably wouldn't play out that way here. In all likelihood, the first cities to be annexed would have significant black populations. As opposed to a countywide merger.

59 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

That's not evidence. It says realtors are noticing the trend and then provides zero evidence of the trend. Then they interview one person. It's all anecdotal. The actual data, provided by @Clefan98 from Zillow, shows that people looking for houses are looking for a place that is MORE urban than their current location. Which makes total sense to me. Lockdown has been fine for me. I can walk to parks, I can go get carryout, I have lots of neighbors that I can do socially-distanced hangouts with on our block. I have gotten in my car, on average, once every two weeks. It's been a beautiful silver lining in all of this craziness. But if I lived out in the country, or on a one acre suburban lot in a subdivision--I would imagine I'd be going crazy. 

 

Look, I don't know what the impact will be, and neither do you. Maybe people will flock to cities, maybe they'll abandon them. Probably, not much will change when it comes to people's choice of where to live. But all I'm saying is that, so far, there's no data indicating what you're claiming. Before the pandemic, people were looking for more urban locations, and that hasn't really changed yet.

We're using Zillow as a guide?  Oh boy.  I don't deny that there are some positives about lockdown and many things to like about urban living but this is turning the tide.  

 

57 minutes ago, WindyBuckeye said:

Hmmm.. https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/cheaper-cities-including-cleveland-stand-gain-work-home-shuffle

This article talks about metropolitan areas not urban cores.  It is also theoretical.  

1 hour ago, KJP said:

I think this entire discussion is premature. Get back to me in a few years to see where we are. I think we all need that level of step-back to have some perspective before making any declarations of pervasive change. Fact is, metropolitan regions and the societies that shape them don't change quickly. The only way any of this relates to the Titanic is that societies don't corner worth a damn.

 

Agreed, at this point this entire thread is just a bunch of hot takes.

17 minutes ago, NYC Boomerang said:

We're using Zillow as a guide?  Oh boy.  I don't deny that there are some positives about lockdown and many things to like about urban living but this is turning the tide.  

 

This article talks about metropolitan areas not urban cores.  It is also theoretical.  

Whatever fits your narrative. Lets wait and see

I think it’s far more likely suburbs merge with each other before ever even considering merging with Cleveland. People have a far too negative views of city hall, schools, and city services to ever take that seriously. 
 

I don’t see mergers happening anytime soon though. 

1 hour ago, JSC216 said:

I think it’s far more likely suburbs merge with each other before ever even considering merging with Cleveland. People have a far too negative views of city hall, schools, and city services to ever take that seriously. 
 

I don’t see mergers happening anytime soon though. 

 

Easiest place to start- Schools anchor suburban communities. There's no reason we should have 4 different city governments for one school district, when the people living in those communities often already view it as one community.

20 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

Yeah I'm with Ken here. 

 

While there's no doubt some issues ahead, if anything, I think the anticipated budget shortfalls will accelerate regionalism - which will be a good thing in the long term. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland proper includes East Cleveland, Garfield Heights, Warrensville Heights, Richmond Heights, Brooklyn, and Euclid in the next 5-10 years. With Parma, Parma Heights, Cleveland Hts., Seven Hills, Brook Park and Fairview Park not far behind. 

 

I'd be shocked.   Especially with part two.

The only one I could see willingly joining the city is East Cleveland.  Unwillingly won't be an option.  The Republicans in Columbus would side with the suburbs as a matter of principle, the Democrats because they can't afford to lose those votes.

 

IMO, even mentioning full mergers sabotages efforts at limited regionalism.

10 hours ago, mu2010 said:

 

Easiest place to start- Schools anchor suburban communities. There's no reason we should have 4 different city governments for one school district, when the people living in those communities often already view it as one community.

 

Walton Hills isn't about to merge with Bedford any more than Bedford is to merge with Cleveland.  They want out of the school district, as it is.

15 hours ago, NYC Boomerang said:

We're using Zillow as a guide?  Oh boy.  I don't deny that there are some positives about lockdown and many things to like about urban living but this is turning the tide.  

 

This article talks about metropolitan areas not urban cores.  It is also theoretical.  

 

Isn't this whole thread theoretical?

6 minutes ago, Zyrokai said:

 

Isn't this whole thread theoretical?

No.  I gave real facts such as 67.5% of Cleveland's budget comes from municipal income taxes.  The article theorizes that the metro Cleveland area will benefit because it has cheaper and bigger houses than larger metros.  It does not site any trends as far as peoples' behavior.  But if you all want to ignore the fact of Cleveland's revenue source, by all means, go for it.  It's pretty safe to say the unemployment rate is skyrocketing and the work from home movement is gaining lots of traction.  This all equals much less revenue for the city of Cleveland because of how its revenue sources are structured and because of its overall high poverty.  Sorry if this isn't what you want to hear.