3 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

I really don't get the experience criticisms of Bibb. The way people talk about him you would think he's 19 years old. At 34, sure he's relatively young, but he has several years of experience in strategic consulting related to urban planning and government issues, including a year working for Cuyahoga County under Ed Fitzgerald. Basheer Jones never got the same criticisms, but outside of a couple years on city council, I don't think he has any city planning experience.

 

I think experience criticisms of politicians are legitimate criticisms, but it's only one thing you have to use to evaluate the candidates out of many.

 

Case in point - I was very happy to get an experienced politician in the White House after 4 years of chaos and insanity. But after 16 years of the dull, slow, albeit responsible stewardship of Frank G. Jackson, I wouldn't mind giving the keys to less experienced, visionary type candidate, who while clearly knowledgeable on the issues, has no direct leadership, managerial, or political experience of this type of organization.

 

(That being said, the Mayor of Cleveland has about 9,000 employees when including the airports, utilities and everything else. The Mayor is a CEO. Kevin Kelley has more experience in City Hall than Justin Bibb, but he probably has never managed more than a few employees.)

Edited September 15, 20213 yr by mu2010

21 minutes ago, bikemail said:

https://www.cleveland.com/cityhall/2021/09/precinct-level-data-reveals-trends-about-tuesdays-cleveland-mayoral-primary.html

 

 

Assuming Kevin Kelley gets the Dennis vote, all Bibb has to do is consolidate 2/3 of that east side Jones/Reed/Williams vote and he's golden. West Park will be the battleground as it seems it could legitimately split between the two.

Edited September 15, 20213 yr by mu2010

For people who have been around long enough can you compare and contrast a young Dennis and a young Bibb? How do we know it is not a repeat as some are trying to argue. 

27 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

I think experience criticisms of politicians are legitimate criticisms, but it's only one thing you have to use to evaluate the candidates out of many.

 

Case in point - I was very happy to get an experienced politician in the White House after 4 years of chaos and insanity. But after 16 years of the dull, slow, albeit responsible stewardship of Frank G. Jackson, I wouldn't mind giving the keys to less experienced, visionary type candidate, who while clearly knowledgeable on the issues, has no direct leadership, managerial, or political experience of this type of organization.

 

(That being said, the Mayor of Cleveland has about 9,000 employees when including the airports, utilities and everything else. The Mayor is a CEO. Kevin Kelley has more experience in City Hall than Justin Bibb, but he probably has never managed more than a few employees.)

This is totally fair. To be clear, I'm not saying an experience criticism is invalid in the abstract. Of course experience is important and so you wouldn't want a 19-year-old mayor. My point is that Bibb actually has a fair amount of directly relevant experience. A lot of the "experience" folks often talk about is really just age.

2 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

A lot of the "experience" folks often talk about is really just age.

 

Yes, I agree.

Edited September 15, 20213 yr by mu2010

9 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

For people who have been around long enough can you compare and contrast a young Dennis and a young Bibb? How do we know it is not a repeat as some are trying to argue. 

 

I was not around, but from what I understand Dennis was extremely, extremely combative back in the day. (He softened later in life.) Bibb presents himself as a change candidate but he also comes off as very collaborative... So definitely some differences there.

 

Bibb also has much more of a professional class vibe and the education and experience that go with it, while Dennis was true working class. What makes Bibb so politically viable is his educational/professional pedigree combined with his humble east side Cleveland background.

Edited September 15, 20213 yr by mu2010

I threw together a few maps based on the Sep. 14 Primary Election. Along with the mayoral primary, the ten wards that had city council primary votes are marked. 2021's voter turnout was 117% of 2017's total with nine wards seeing increased turnout over the last election. Here is a breakdown by ward:

 

Here is 2021's Primary Election voter turnout by ward:

 

And here is a map of turnout and each wards winning mayoral primary candidate:

It seems like endorsements could/will make a huge difference in this race. On policy, a candidate like Zach Reed is probably more similar to Kelley, but Bibb received more votes than Kelley in the districts won by Reed. An endorsement of Kelley by Reed could make a huge difference, and help Kelley make the East side inroads he so desperately needs. Conversely, if candidates like Reed, Williams, or Jones decide to endorse Bibb it could be very hard for Kelley to improve his vote share on the East side. I'll be interested to see what happens. 

1 hour ago, Ethan said:

It seems like endorsements could/will make a huge difference in this race. On policy, a candidate like Zach Reed is probably more similar to Kelley, but Bibb received more votes than Kelley in the districts won by Reed. An endorsement of Kelley by Reed could make a huge difference, and help Kelley make the East side inroads he so desperately needs. Conversely, if candidates like Reed, Williams, or Jones decide to endorse Bibb it could be very hard for Kelley to improve his vote share on the East side. I'll be interested to see what happens. 

I think Kelley really needs endorsements or he is in trouble. Bibb beat Kelly in 2/3 of the wards, and in eight of the wards, Bibb got twice or more the votes that Kelley did. Kelley got twice as many votes as Bibb in only one ward. In other words, Bibb drastically outperformed Kelley in the wards where Williams, Jones, and Reed soaked up a lot of votes. The only ward where Kelley really smoked Bibb was in his own ward. Unless Williams, Jones, and Reed all endorse Kelley it’s hard for me to see him winning any east side ward. In most east side wards, Kelley had the fewest votes of any real (ie non DiBello) candidate.

^ To use a bit of math to back up the above, if you assume that Bibb and Kelley will continue to get the same relative share of votes in each ward and the turnout at the general will be the same as the primary (i.e. if Bibb gets twice as many votes as Kelley in a ward in the primary you assume Bibb will win two thirds of that ward in the general; if Kelley gets three times as many votes in a ward in the primary, you assume Kelley will win 75% of that ward in the general) you get the following vote totals:

 

Ward 1 B: 2257, K 901

Ward 2 B: 1588, K 501

Ward 3 B: 2481, K 563

Ward 4 B: 1966, K 539

Ward 5 B 755, K 361

Ward 6 B 1457, K 514

Ward 7 B 1240, K 656

Ward 8 B 1583, K 956

Ward 9 B 1369, K 574

Ward 10 B 1181, K 589

Ward 11 B 837, K 869

Ward 12 B 885, K 1260

Ward 13 B 688, K 2191

Ward 14 B 404, K 524

Ward 15 B 2057, K 618

Ward 16 B 837, K 231

Ward 17 B 2101, K 2652

 

Overall, Bibb would win about 60.5% to 39.5%. 

 

So Kelley needs to find a way to beat Bibb in the wards where he lost to Bibb in the primary, and I'm not sure how he can do that without endorsements.

Thanks for calculating that out! You're right, but it's not obvious to me that the underlying assumptions are necessarily correct. The percentage of people whose first choice was Bibb/Kelley may not be the same as the percentage of people whose second/third choice is Bibb/Kelley. Bibb is a far more singular candidate than Kelley, and it's possible the more standard establishment candidates split the vote amongst themselves. 

 

All in all though, I don't know. It'll be interesting to see how it works out. 

^What you’ve said may all be true.

 

Another thing I just realized. In November there will be an election in D-11. So the eastern wards should get a turnout bump the western wards don’t.

22 hours ago, Pugu said:

I'd say Kelley is the lower risk and higher reward option. Before the results started trickling in I thought the winners would be Kucinich and Bibb, and am happy that Kelley is out ahead of Kucinich. I know Bibb had a quite a following, but I'm surprised by the large margin he came out with. I think a lot of people drank the Bibb Kool-Aid without realizing what a disaster and weak mayor he'd be. He certainly duped a lot of people. I certainly hope Kelley wins in November. He is stiff and seen as a the 'status quo'/Jackson-Rubber-Stamp, I know, but he is still far better than Bibb would be in City Hall. 

 

15 hours ago, GISguy said:

Or maybe people are capable of critical thinking, evaluated all candidates, and found Bibb to be the best choice for the city. This idea of people being duped is a copout, I think people are capable to think for themselves and don't want a retread of city leadership, especially someone who's been on council and part of the city machine for the past decade. Kelley claims his time on council as a strength when many people (myself included) find it to be a flaw. He's been council prez  and a rubber stamp through this whole mess of a Jackson administration - reactive and not an inkling of proactive - reacting based on investigative reporting and frankly I don't want that type of person to lead the city.

 

Look at the people endorsing Justin, they aren't just some schmucks off the street- they're smart people who know what they're doing in their respective industries. Seriously, this "duped" and "Kool-Aid" rhetoric is pretty dumb considering his base.

 

Maybe you need to read this thread (from the head! of Ohio City's CDC) to understand why people are so energized by Justin. 

 

15 hours ago, dastler said:

At what point do you start wondering if it was you who was duped and not the large majority...

 

You guys are like Trumpists. How many millions love that guy, celebrate his birthday, defy laws in his honor, think covid is hoax and/or public health initiatives are unamerican, think storming the US Capitol is a good thing, and the 2020 election was stolen? You can't convince these people of logic and sense. And many are well educated and some with respectable professions--doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc.--not all "schmucks off the street". You Bibbers (Bibbists?) sound no different like he's some kind of saint that will save the damned and dying city. Yes, you drank the kool-aid and are duped. The rhetoric is not "pretty dumb", its an accurate depiction of what is going on. Bibb has done nothing for Cleveland and while he can say ultra-basic things about current conditions (like "people need transit to get to work, to get to school, to get to doctor's appointments"), there's no indication that he'd be able to accomplish a single thing especially when you listen to him talk and the emptiness or cluelessness that he spews---but says it in a very well-spoken way. I don't care if the CEO of Ohio City Inc thinks he's good---he's been duped as well. There's a very scary parallel here of Trump supporters and Bibb supporters that seem incapable or unwilling to really look at the person.

 

Alright.  You can grow up and contribute something to this thread besides insults or you can step away.

8 hours ago, Pugu said:

has done nothing for Cleveland and while he can say ultra-basic things about current conditions (like "people need transit to get to work, to get to school, to get to doctor's appointments")

 

What on earth is your point, that is how politicians talk. Kevin Kelley is going on and on about how we're going to make a Cleveland a city where "every neighborhood counts." So?

 

The reason why people on UO like Bibb is because he's an urbanist. It's not rocket science. Sheesh.

Thanks @LlamaLawyerfor the work you put in. Also s/o to @NorthShore647for the cartographic work. 

 

I'm sure the Exner maps are in that cle dot com article but here's some screenshots showing Bibb/Kelley votes by precinct. It seems like a lot of candidates respect JB and I wouldn't be surprised if they endorsed him - but like it's been pointed out above, voters aren't a 1:1 with a different candidate. Still, not looking great for KK on the east side.

 

 

17 hours ago, Ethan said:

It seems like endorsements could/will make a huge difference in this race. On policy, a candidate like Zach Reed is probably more similar to Kelley, but Bibb received more votes than Kelley in the districts won by Reed. An endorsement of Kelley by Reed could make a huge difference, and help Kelley make the East side inroads he so desperately needs. Conversely, if candidates like Reed, Williams, or Jones decide to endorse Bibb it could be very hard for Kelley to improve his vote share on the East side. I'll be interested to see what happens. 

 

Doesn't Zach despise Kelley?  I know Polensek does, and the two of them were close.

23 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Doesn't Zach despise Kelley?  I know Polensek does, and the two of them were close.

 

I'll admit I only heard two concession speeches (courtesy of After Jackson) - and if I'm not mistaken both Reed and Dennis congratulated JB and nothing on Kelley.

 

Might mean nothing, might mean something, who knows.

40 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Doesn't Zach despise Kelley?  I know Polensek does, and the two of them were close.

Polensek dislikes Jackson and therefore dislikes Kelley as well. Zack likely despises Kelley because he despises Jackson as well. 

What are the other contenders planning for 2025? If Reed or Williams or whoever is planning to run again next time, it'd be in their interest NOT to endorse anyone that may be their opponent in four years.

 

I figured Blane Griffin would endorse Kelley. Griffin is a Jackson ally and Kelley has Jackson's endorsement. I suspect that Brancatelli will endorse Kelly too 

Going back a week or so ago, seeing all the negative print ads that went out against Bibb, some or much of which was funded by the George's and Kassouf, what is their motivation for this?  Is it policy?  Just not their guy?  Racism?  All the above?  What happens now if he wins?  How do you function as a large investor in a City like Cleveland where you've drawn such a hard line against the mayor?

3 minutes ago, gottaplan said:

Going back a week or so ago, seeing all the negative print ads that went out against Bibb, some or much of which was funded by the George's and Kassouf, what is their motivation for this?  Is it policy?  Just not their guy?  Racism?  All the above?  What happens now if he wins?  How do you function as a large investor in a City like Cleveland where you've drawn such a hard line against the mayor?

I'm not sure it's racism with these guys. Bibb is not part of the old boys club so they might fear him being in charge.  Kelley is a known person to them and know how to deal with him. 

26 minutes ago, freefourur said:

I'm not sure it's racism with these guys. Bibb is not part of the old boys club so they might fear him being in charge.  Kelley is a known person to them and know how to deal with him. 

 

Bingo.

35 minutes ago, gottaplan said:

Going back a week or so ago, seeing all the negative print ads that went out against Bibb, some or much of which was funded by the George's and Kassouf, what is their motivation for this?  Is it policy?  Just not their guy?  Racism?  All the above?  What happens now if he wins?  How do you function as a large investor in a City like Cleveland where you've drawn such a hard line against the mayor?

Those two examples wanted someone they could buy. That’s what they’re used to. They hedged their bets by heavily funding four of the candidates, it just didn’t work because those all lost. They focused on the candidates that needed the most financial help. (At one point George was essentially Kucinich’s ONLY sponsor. And many George properties had bunches of Jones and Reed signs. Jones held his kickoff fundraiser at a George restaurant.) Bibb was able to heavily fundraise via small donations, making it easier to be pickier about big donors. 
 

I think it’s worth noting that many developers and business owners heavily supported Bibb. They believe he’s going to make the city more responsive. 
 

As far as your other questions - that’s just politics. Developers support multiple candidates and then they try to figure out how to work with or attempt to bully whoever won. 

7 hours ago, freefourur said:

I figured Blane Griffin would endorse Kelley. Griffin is a Jackson ally and Kelley has Jackson's endorsement. I suspect that Brancatelli will endorse Kelly too 

A vote for the status quo.  A vote for I team investigations of city crews working 1 hour out of a 8 hour day.  

Fundraiser / urbanohio meetup, perhaps @misterjoshr?
 

 

 

3 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

Fundraiser / urbanohio meetup, perhaps @misterjoshr?
 

 

 

 

I would absolutely go. I don't use the Bird App so somebody post the details here when he sends them out!

👀👀

On 9/21/2021 at 1:37 PM, GISguy said:

👀👀

 

On 9/20/2021 at 9:06 PM, Boomerang_Brian said:

Fundraiser / urbanohio meetup, perhaps @misterjoshr?

 

 

 

Got the info for you guys - Event Link - ActBlue

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 20213 yr by mu2010

Mayoral debate:
 

 

We can have 70,000 unmasked fans for a Browns game but they can't host a few hundred masked constituents politely listening to a debate?   

On 9/20/2021 at 9:06 PM, Boomerang_Brian said:

Fundraiser / urbanohio meetup, perhaps @misterjoshr?
 

 

On 9/21/2021 at 12:14 AM, mu2010 said:

I would absolutely go. I don't use the Bird App so somebody post the details here when he sends them out!

 

On 9/23/2021 at 6:49 PM, mu2010 said:

Got the info for you guys - Event Link - ActBlue

 

 

OK, I'm going to this fundraiser. I just made my first ever donation to an individual candidate (Bibb).  Hey @misterjoshr, thanks for hosting!  Who else is in?  @GISguy@Cleburger@KJP@YABO713@mu2010@mack34  ?  @Pugu?  (ha ha, that's a joke.)

Thanks. But I've already donated a couple of times during this mayoral campaign. BTW....

 

 

16 minutes ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

 

 

OK, I'm going to this fundraiser. I just made my first ever donation to an individual candidate (Bibb).  Hey @misterjoshr, thanks for hosting!  Who else is in?  @GISguy@Cleburger@KJP@YABO713@mu2010@mack34  ?  @Pugu?  (ha ha, that's a joke.)

Thanks for posting.  Please everyone feel welcome to come and intro yourself to me!   I am hopeful this will be a joyful, fun event

9 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

 

 

OK, I'm going to this fundraiser. I just made my first ever donation to an individual candidate (Bibb).  Hey @misterjoshr, thanks for hosting!  Who else is in?  @GISguy@Cleburger@KJP@YABO713@mu2010@mack34  ?  @Pugu?  (ha ha, that's a joke.)

 

My wife and I will be there

I actually can't attend this one because I'll be out of town.  But I hope its a big hit and well attended!!  

 

20 minutes ago, bikemail said:

 

At least we know he is a gentleman or there is no way he would get that endorsement haha.

Just curious, for you Bibbers, does Zach Reed's endorsement make you support Bibb more or less?

Basheer Jones just endorsed Kevin Kelley.

 

I think the fact that Kevin Kelley did NOT get endorsed by Zack Reed is more significant than that he did get endorsed by Kevin Kelley. As I've stated before, based on primary vote totals it seems almost inevitable that Bibb outperforms Kelley in the east side suburbs all else being equal. Obviously the endorsement from Basheer Jones will help Kelley some, but I think he would really need unanimity in east side endorsements to stand a chance there.

I wonder if Sandra Williams will end up making an endorsement. I know from talking to her on the primary election day that she hates Kelley, but maybe she would want to hold off on endorsing in case she decides to run again in 4 years.

Will Kucinich endorse Kelley? That's an endorsement Kelley needs and Sandra's will certainly help as well. The Kelley people were pretty harsh towards Kucinich in the run up to the primary, such as the anti-Dennis website and the Dennis the Menace comic book mailed out. I hope Dennis rises above all that and is not personal, but does what is best for the city. As I've said before--but it needs repeating---Bibb would be a total disaster for the future of this city. Would Kelley be great? Probably not, but he's far better by a long shot that putting clueless and dangerous Bibb in City Hall.

48 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Bibb would be a total disaster for the future of this city. Would Kelley be great? Probably not, but he's far better by a long shot that putting clueless and dangerous Bibb in City Hall.

 

Zach Reed worked with Kelley on council and thinks he would be a total disaster.

 

Go Bibb!

With endorsements typically the more the better, but I'm not sure how much a Kucinich endorsement benefits either candidate. Whether or not you like Mayors White, Campbell or Jackson, I don't think any of them are so toxic that their endorsements hurt.

Now, Dennis....

14 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

 

 

OK, I'm going to this fundraiser. I just made my first ever donation to an individual candidate (Bibb).  Hey @misterjoshr, thanks for hosting!  Who else is in?  @GISguy@Cleburger@KJP@YABO713@mu2010@mack34  ?  @Pugu?  (ha ha, that's a joke.)

 

I will be going - we'll need to post some way to identify ourselves while we're at the event so we can all link up. Maybe a special thread and we can post what we're wearing/where we're standing or whatever haha.

Edited September 29, 20213 yr by mu2010

2 hours ago, Pugu said:

Just curious, for you Bibbers, does Zach Reed's endorsement make you support Bibb more or less?

 

Doesn't change my Bibb support, makes me like Zack Reed more. I was not a Reed fan in 2017 (thought he didn't really have a good argument against Frank unfortunately, his whole campaign was catchphrases like "Safety!" and "Hire more cops!" without actual serious discussion of those issues) but I've warmed up to him this campaign season. Partially just because you see the guy everywhere around town and he has just seemed like a good guy to me this time around. Then he makes the right decision with his endorsement.  👏

Edited September 29, 20213 yr by mu2010

5 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

My wife and I will be there

 

5 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

 

I will be going - we'll need to post some way to identify ourselves while we're at the event so we can all link up. Maybe a special thread and we can post what we're wearing/where we're standing or whatever haha.

I look forward to meeting you. We need that legendary UO bat signal. Me: middle-aged 6’ white guy with a horrendous covid ponytail. 

18 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

With endorsements typically the more the better, but I'm not sure how much a Kucinich endorsement benefits either candidate. Whether or not you like Mayors White, Campbell or Jackson, I don't think any of them are so toxic that their endorsements hurt.

Now, Dennis....

 

Dennis seems to respect Bibb in some way given his concession speech, however, the Bibb coalition and Kucinich coalitions don't seem to have much overlap so yeah not sure Bibb would want his endorsement.