1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Last I checked, there were plenty of Democrat donors that write 7 and 8 figure checks for Dem candidates each election cycle. 

 

This was literally the first 8 figure donation in history so try again.

8 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

This was literally the first 8 figure donation in history so try again.

You seem to forget Bloomberg promising to spend 100 million last year in the presidential race. Tom Steyer is a big giver to super pac's. You are being a bit disingenuous here

 

5 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

You seem to forget Bloomberg promising to spend 100 million last year in the presidential race. Tom Steyer is a big giver to super pac's. You are being a bit disingenuous here

 

I'm not being disingenuous. This is a Senate race. And the first one to see an 8 figure donation.

 

But yes, big money in politics is bad. We'd be better off with reasonable limits on what people (and corporations) can give. 

I wouldn't be too worried about raising a ton of money. TV ads don't work anymore and internet ones don't either in these federal races. Worry more about non-practicing lawyers being paid to cook up rhetoric. That's cheaper though.

Edited March 19, 20214 yr by GCrites80s

12 hours ago, KJP said:

 

 

Heard it directly from someone familiar with Mandel's mouth...

 

His strategy is to try to get banned from Twitter and use it as a rallying cry. There's really no other path to victory over Timken/Vance/Kasich et al in the primary unless he somehow becomes the victim of a culture war. 

 

While his rhetoric is racist, xenophobic, and wrong - I do get a certain degree of schadenfreude watching a single man's avarice and moral pliability ruin his own career and a family name that took decades to build in Northeast Ohio. 

 

For the Office fans in the forum - Mandel is to Trump what Andy Bernard was to Michael Scott early on in the office - the consummate "yes man"

36 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Heard it directly from someone familiar with Mandel's mouth...

 

His strategy is to try to get banned from Twitter and use it as a rallying cry. There's really no other path to victory over Timken/Vance/Kasich et al in the primary unless he somehow becomes the victim of a culture war. 

 

While his rhetoric is racist, xenophobic, and wrong - I do get a certain degree of schadenfreude watching a single man's avarice and moral pliability ruin his own career and a family name that took decades to build in Northeast Ohio. 

 

For the Office fans in the forum - Mandel is to Trump what Andy Bernard was to Michael Scott early on in the office - the consummate "yes man"

The thing about Mandel, if he were a viable candidate beyond where he has already ascended, he would still be an elected official at this point. No matter what he does, his star has crested at State Treasurer and he was not going to ascend higher. He has tried on more than one occasion and lost. That says something, it is time to move on.

 

It is true, there is always hope to catch lightening in a bottle and get lucky, like Sherrod Brown did in 2006 to reinvigorate his career, but those times are rare and, while I think the GOP will keep Portman's seat in 2022, I do not see that same energy in 2022 as you saw in 2006, 2010, 1994. Although, that could quickly change.  However, that will not solve his primary issues.

 

I think the race will come down to Vance and Timken, and I am putting my money on Vance. 

33 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

The thing about Mandel, if he were a viable candidate beyond where he has already ascended, he would still be an elected official at this point. No matter what he does, his star has crested at State Treasurer and he was not going to ascend higher. He has tried on more than one occasion and lost. That says something, it is time to move on.

 

It is true, there is always hope to catch lightening in a bottle and get lucky, like Sherrod Brown did in 2006 to reinvigorate his career, but those times are rare and, while I think the GOP will keep Portman's seat in 2022, I do not see that same energy in 2022 as you saw in 2006, 2010, 1994. Although, that could quickly change.  However, that will not solve his primary issues.

 

I think the race will come down to Vance and Timken, and I am putting my money on Vance. 

 

Agreed. 

 

Imo opinion only one Democrat in the state can win this seat, and it's Tim Ryan

2 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Agreed. 

 

Imo opinion only one Democrat in the state can win this seat, and it's Tim Ryan

Tim Ryan would certainly be the most likely. honestly, I think if John Cranley ran for Senate he could win but he wants to run for governor.  That will be an interesting race as Cranley will essentially run to the right of Dewine on some economic issues (at least if he stays true to how he governed in cincinnati).

 

While I agree with your statement, the only caveat I would offer is that anything can happen in politics and you never know if there is going to be a total implosion of a candidate that opens the door for a no name outsider to win. 

3 hours ago, YABO713 said:

Heard it directly from someone familiar with Mandel's mouth...

 

His strategy is to try to get banned from Twitter and use it as a rallying cry. There's really no other path to victory over Timken/Vance/Kasich et al in the primary unless he somehow becomes the victim of a culture war. 

 

Mandel is now tweeting today whining about being "cancelled" by Twitter.

https://www.10tv.com/article/news/politics/poll-dr-amy-acton-has-highest-favorability-among-democratic-us-senate-candidates-in-ohio/530-642e2015-befb-43e0-9f67-77c2e43d605b

 

Quote

Former Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton hasn't officially announced her intentions to run for the U.S. Senate in 2022 yet.

 

But if she does, it may not take long for her to become the front-runner in the Democratic primary.

 

On Wednesday, Public Policy Polling released a new poll regarding the upcoming Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat that will be left vacated by Senator Rob Portman's decision not to run for re-election in 2022. 

 

She holds a 24% lead in net favorability over Tim Ryan.

1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.10tv.com/article/news/politics/poll-dr-amy-acton-has-highest-favorability-among-democratic-us-senate-candidates-in-ohio/530-642e2015-befb-43e0-9f67-77c2e43d605b

 

 

She holds a 24% lead in net favorability over Tim Ryan.

 

Just to be clear, the pollster wants Acton to run and it only compared her with Tim Ryan. No mention of other candidates, especially not Nan Whaley who had her profile raised nationally with the Oregon District shooting.

 

That all said, she obviously has the highest name recognition of potential Democratic candidates but I think the point being made was that Tim Ryan has the strongest message for Ohio General Election voters.

46 minutes ago, Dev said:

 

Just to be clear, the pollster wants Acton to run and it only compared her with Tim Ryan. No mention of other candidates, especially not Nan Whaley who had her profile raised nationally with the Oregon District shooting.

 

That all said, she obviously has the highest name recognition of potential Democratic candidates but I think the point being made was that Tim Ryan has the strongest message for Ohio General Election voters.

 

And can chip off votes in Southeast Ohio which is a tough ask for any Dem candidate

34 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

And can chip off votes in Southeast Ohio which is a tough ask for any Dem candidate

 

Probably not against Vance, though. Vance's story is very relatable to people in Southeast Ohio.

 

IMO, at this point it is his race to lose against whomever the Democrats pick to run.

49 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

And can chip off votes in Southeast Ohio which is a tough ask for any Dem candidate

Your right, what I forgot about earlier in my comment was that pretty much for a dem to win in Ohio, they need to be able to win the SE Ohio area. Ryan (and Sherrod Brown and Strickland) are the only ones who have demonstrated in the last 20 years that they can do this.  

 

Acton may be popular now, but given her political inexperience and probably a high unfavorability in the SE Ohio area, she especially will face an uphill climb. 

18 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Your right, what I forgot about earlier in my comment was that pretty much for a dem to win in Ohio, they need to be able to win the SE Ohio area. Ryan (and Sherrod Brown and Strickland) are the only ones who have demonstrated in the last 20 years that they can do this.  

 

Acton may be popular now, but given her political inexperience and probably a high unfavorability in the SE Ohio area, she especially will face an uphill climb. 

 

Why does a Dem (or anyone) need SE Ohio? Asking earnestly here. It has a very low population compared to the counties around the 3C's + the rest of the state.

42 minutes ago, Ram23 said:

 

Probably not against Vance, though. Vance's story is very relatable to people in Southeast Ohio.

 

A venture capitalist grifting his way to the top is relatable to SE Ohio?

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

 

Why does a Dem (or anyone) need SE Ohio? Asking earnestly here. It has a very low population compared to the counties around the 3C's + the rest of the state.

 

It seems like common sense that the 3 C's would dictate our statewide politicians..... but that's not always the case. 

 

Having said that, our statewide officeholders (with the occasional exception of Yost) tend to be pretty center-right. 

8 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Having said that, our statewide officeholders (with the occasional exception of Yost) tend to be pretty center-right. 

Wouldn't you exclude Sherrod Brown too?

2 hours ago, freefourur said:

Wouldn't you exclude Sherrod Brown too?

 

I was referring solely to GOP. My bad. Funny thing is, rural Ohio would never support a centrist Dem, but would get behind Sherrod. *Shrugs*

21 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

I was referring solely to GOP. My bad. Funny thing is, rural Ohio would never support a centrist Dem, but would get behind Sherrod. *Shrugs*

Sherrod has a populist economic message which appeals to working class voters. I think social issues don't matter that much to this voting bloc. You're right that Tim Ryan could appeal to this same group.

5 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

Why does a Dem (or anyone) need SE Ohio? Asking earnestly here. It has a very low population compared to the counties around the 3C's + the rest of the state.

Think about it in the terms that SE Ohio may contribute 10-15% of the whole statewide vote. If the rest of the state tends to break 50/50, or 45/55 then SE Ohio allows the Republicans to run up a large margin and win. You can’t give up on a large bloc if you want to be viable statewide 

5 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

A venture capitalist grifting his way to the top is relatable to SE Ohio?

If you were talking about Matt Bevin you may be painting an accurate picture. 
 

you really cant say that about Vance though. Yes, he may be a venture capitalist but the guy grew up as one of them in SE Ohio. He has the credibility with the people there because he is essentially one of them. Much more credibility than a Dem technocratic candidate who has never walked in their shoes. 
Vance would be very authentic in that regard. 

The key for a Democrat in statewide race is to run up the score in the 3 Cs and toledo and not lose by too much in SE Ohio. 

The whole "Strickland Democrat" thing is gone for a while due to Trumpism.

On 3/19/2021 at 7:42 PM, Brutus_buckeye said:

If you were talking about Matt Bevin you may be painting an accurate picture. 
 

you really cant say that about Vance though. Yes, he may be a venture capitalist but the guy grew up as one of them in SE Ohio. He has the credibility with the people there because he is essentially one of them. Much more credibility than a Dem technocratic candidate who has never walked in their shoes. 
Vance would be very authentic in that regard. 

 

Middletown isn't SE Ohio.  Neither is Ohio State, where he majored in political science and philosophy.  Neither is Yale, where he earned his law degree.  He seems to have spent much of his adulthood living in Cincinnati and Columbus.

4 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Middletown isn't SE Ohio.  Neither is Ohio State, where he majored in political science and philosophy.  Neither is Yale, where he earned his law degree.  He seems to have spent much of his adulthood living in Cincinnati and Columbus.

His family comes from Eastern Kentucky. His roots are in that part of the country. Southeast, Ohio has a lot in common with Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. That people in that region share a lot of similar culture.  He spent a good portion of his childhood in Eastern Kentucky. He understands the people of the area there that those from the cities do not. He understands the opioid culture issues better than most, he understands the fact that people have been left behind and have limited opportunity because he experienced it in his own family. 

 

This is just like saying Joe Biden does not understand the factory worker in Pennsyvania because he spent most of his life in Delaware even though he is a native son of Scranton.  

 

Face it, Vance is a much more authentic candidate that can speak to SE Ohio voters than any other person, Republican or Democrat in Ohio. The only Democrat who would carry the same cache as Vance in the area is Strickland, and last I recall, he is pretty much retired. 

So, Amy Acton doesn't have the same authenticity?

16 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

His family comes from Eastern Kentucky. His roots are in that part of the country. Southeast, Ohio has a lot in common with Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. That people in that region share a lot of similar culture.  He spent a good portion of his childhood in Eastern Kentucky. He understands the people of the area there that those from the cities do not. He understands the opioid culture issues better than most, he understands the fact that people have been left behind and have limited opportunity because he experienced it in his own family. 

 

This is just like saying Joe Biden does not understand the factory worker in Pennsyvania because he spent most of his life in Delaware even though he is a native son of Scranton.  

 

Face it, Vance is a much more authentic candidate that can speak to SE Ohio voters than any other person, Republican or Democrat in Ohio. The only Democrat who would carry the same cache as Vance in the area is Strickland, and last I recall, he is pretty much retired. 

 

His family did come from Eastern KY. So did mine. But unlike him, I grew up in Appalachian Ohio. You said he was from SE Ohio. He is not. His understanding of Appalachian Ohio and Eastern KY is based on his very limited experience with his own family members who lived there and stereotypes he internalized. I have family in Middletown/Hamilton/Dayton and it is amazing how the folks with Appalachian roots in those places have a caricatured view of Appalachia. They have been made fun of for their Appalachian roots their whole lives and they bought into the stereotype and try their best to disassociate themselves from it. Part of that is playing it up and proudly declaring that they are one of the good ones.

2 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

you said he was from SE Ohio.

He is from the region. SE OHIO, Ashland KY, Huntington WV and the surrounding communities have a similar culture. He is from that culture.  No, he may not be from Lucasville or Marietta, but he grew up in an environment where he understands them and the culture better than most other Ohioans outside of Ted Strickland.

1 minute ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

He is from the region. SE OHIO, Ashland KY, Huntington WV and the surrounding communities have a similar culture. He is from that culture.  No, he may not be from Lucasville or Marietta, but he grew up in an environment where he understands them and the culture better than most other Ohioans outside of Ted Strickland.

 

What I'm telling you is that Middletown and Southeast OH do not have the same culture. People with Appalachian heritage from Middletown have a very different culture and worldview than folks who are actually from SE OH/Eastern KY/WV. It is night and day. He is not from Appalachian culture. He has merely used it to his advantage by convincing people he is. I can tell you this because I am actually from Appalachia and have lots of family who moved out of the region to places like Middletown. I know both worlds.

Most people in SE Ohio don't know who he is. And among those who do there are a lot of people that don't like him. Even my family members who are staunch Trumpers don't like him because of the stereotypes he has played up to gain his fame. They'll vote for him if he has an R next to his name, but he doesn't have any kind of special bond with them.

5 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

. I can tell you this because I am actually from Appalachia and have lots of family who moved out of the region to places like Middletown. I know both worlds.

So, who do you think the people from SE Ohio would better connect with if they were going to pick the candidate of their choice?

Vance? Speaks to working class. Has some street cred

Timken?  City girl, grew up fairly wealthy

Mandel? City guy

Acton? Interesting life story, but does not appear to have the connection with voters outside of healthcare matters

Whaley? - Indiana farm girl. 

Ryan? - Speaks well to working class. Has some street cred

Other? 

3 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

So, who do you think the people from SE Ohio would better connect with if they were going to pick the candidate of their choice?

Vance? Speaks to working class. Has some street cred

Timken?  City girl, grew up fairly wealthy

Mandel? City guy

Acton? Interesting life story, but does not appear to have the connection with voters outside of healthcare matters

Whaley? - Indiana farm girl. 

Ryan? - Speaks well to working class. Has some street cred

Other? 

 

Probably Ryan or Whaley. But they also have Ds next to their name so that hurts them. I think they both would overperform in SE Ohio but they'd still lose the region to a generic Republican. Question is, would they be able to make up for it in the burbs and cities? I don't know. I think Acton would do really well in the burbs. I don't know how SE Ohioans would react to her. It all depends on how she focuses her campaign. I think Mandel or Timken would underperform in SE Ohio compared to a generic Republican.

 

Then there's Athens, which is a whole other animal. Any of the Dems listed would do very well there obviously. 

The best chance the Ohio Democratic Party has had in over a decade to revitalize itself is the gubernatorial race.   God knows the state GOP needs the competition.  Dewine either won't get renominated or will have to fight hard for it.   That's where Tim Ryan should aim.   Hell, I'd probably vote for him over Dewine.   It needs to be a populist labor type though, not a "progressive".

 

Forget about the Senate.   Not happening in 2022, not in a mostly red state with the coastals apparently in charge of the national party.

1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Probably Ryan or Whaley. But they also have Ds next to their name so that hurts them. I think they both would overperform in SE Ohio but they'd still lose the region to a generic Republican. Question is, would they be able to make up for it in the burbs and cities? I don't know. I think Acton would do really well in the burbs. I don't know how SE Ohioans would react to her. It all depends on how she focuses her campaign. I think Mandel or Timken would underperform in SE Ohio compared to a generic Republican.

 

Then there's Athens, which is a whole other animal. Any of the Dems listed would do very well there obviously. 

I agree with you on Ryan. I do not necessarily see that with Whaley. She is more of the typical suburban background. I should not have really called her a farm girl, as she is from the Carmel area. I have had drinks with her on a couple occasionas in the past. I know that she more or less described her ubbringing as more of fringe suburbia. We had a debate about anti-Catholic basis that existed but I get growing up in that part of Indiana, she would face more of it than someone in say suburban Ohio. 

On 3/23/2021 at 10:15 AM, Brutus_buckeye said:

Face it, Vance is a much more authentic candidate that can speak to SE Ohio voters than any other person

 

A venture capitalist can speak authentically to SE Ohio because he has some family there?  That's the logic? lol

 

I don't know why conservatives can't admit a VC doesn't play well in SE Ohio, but Vance clearly knows how to grift.

3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

A venture capitalist can speak authentically to SE Ohio because he has some family there?  That's the logic? lol

 

I don't know why conservatives can't admit a VC doesn't play well in SE Ohio, but Vance clearly knows how to grift.

Amazing how you seem to focus on what he does now act like he is some snobbish elite as opposed to looking at the full background of the person and understanding his upbringing. As long as there is an R behind his name, he is nothing but a grifter. Go ahead and run Richard Cordary or someone in that vein. that would play quite well in SE Ohio. Give him a D behind his name and that means he must be sincere. That is a riot!! Thanks for the laugh

What will likely become the most expensive Senate race in Ohio's history is already on its way there:

 

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/03/26/political-group-314-action-pledges-5-million-help-amy-acton-win-democratic-senate-primary-ohio/7007559002/

 

Acton is kind-of a wet blanket, I think even if big money pours in for her she'll still probably lose to Ryan.

 

I'm a bit curious what happens to all this money (and Vance's $10 million) if they end up not running - neither has formally announced a campaign yet.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1375443641985032198

 

Quote

The Ohio Senate GOP primary is shaping up as a race between a QAnon-curious populist, a guy whose Twitter account was suspended for racist tweets, and a third who's calling for the resignation of her congressman just b/c he supported Trump's impeachment

 

https://www.vox.com/22344549/ohio-senate-primary-rob-portman-jd-vance-josh-mandel-jane-timken-trump

 

Quote

The QAnon-curious figure in the race is J.D. Vance, author of the bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy

Quote

The two candidates who have officially launched campaigns to replace Portman are former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel and former Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken.

 

Mandel’s Twitter account was recently restricted for “hateful conduct.”

 

Timken made headlines a few weeks ago for calling on her Congress member, Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, to resign. Gonzalez was one of 10 House Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment.

 

8 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1375443641985032198

 

 

https://www.vox.com/22344549/ohio-senate-primary-rob-portman-jd-vance-josh-mandel-jane-timken-trump

 

 

It is quite humorous how they are trying to frame Vance as a QAnon guy. The tweets they use for support draw dubious conclusions at best. But of course the narrative is more important than the facts. 

2 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It is quite humorous how they are trying to frame Vance as a QAnon guy. The tweets they use for support draw dubious conclusions at best. But of course the narrative is more important than the facts. 

 

 

This is literally what QAnon is.

2 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It is quite humorous how they are trying to frame Vance as a QAnon guy. The tweets they use for support draw dubious conclusions at best. But of course the narrative is more important than the facts. 

 

Rupar is (rather lazily) grasping at straws because he has no real, tangible way to attack Vance, and it scares him.

 

The fact that Vance was born with nothing and raised in abject poverty, but managed to pull himself up by his bootstraps throughout his life is a huge threat to modern leftists. Their entire worldview is challenged by his mere existence.

 

 

8 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

 

This is literally what QAnon is.

It may have been a reference to pizzagate, but it was more of a direct attack on Epstein, Weaver and Black, and their collaborators through the years

On 3/26/2021 at 1:47 PM, Brutus_buckeye said:

It may have been a reference to pizzagate, but it was more of a direct attack on Epstein, Weaver and Black, and their collaborators through the years

 

How are the three connected and what is the "crazy conspiracy" he is sarcastically referencing?  Please be specific.

 

EDIT - so...a pretty basic question is just unanswerable?  Cool, cool.

Edited March 29, 20214 yr by DarkandStormy

I'd like to hear Vance actually elaborate on his push for more government involvement toward his social conservative agenda.  

On 3/26/2021 at 3:24 PM, surfohio said:

I'd like to hear Vance actually elaborate on his push for more government involvement toward his social conservative agenda.  

 

"Social conservatism" inevitably requires government intervention since it is in practice cultural collectivism and pretty much implies bucking individual preferences.

Reagan got this and it was one of the keys to his success.   

 

I didn’t realize that Bernie Moreno was a Trumpy Republican. He’s trying to protect America from the “left wing radical socialists.”

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/moreno-joins-growing-republican-field-in-ohio-senate-campaign

 

 

"Raise taxes on corporations I don't like" seems kind of fascistic, no?  And Vance is supposed to be the "reasonable" guy in the GOP primary?

^ Lately Vance has been catering to people who have a knee-jerk emotional response, to everything. Those people tend to donate more and think less.