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2022 U.S. Senate Race

Columbo
in Ohio Politics

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LOL, based on what we've seen of the GOP, I wouldn't be surprised to see JD Vance change his name to PJ Mandel.  You know who always has to be correct.

I don't want to get overly excited - but Matt Dolan has a decent chance at a plurality win here. 

9 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

I don't want to get overly excited - but Matt Dolan has a decent chance at a plurality win here. 

Trump's flub could only have helped Dolan. It may get some people who may be a Vance person because of Trump go for Mandel or vice versa.

 

I think the challenge is going to be turnout and who is the turnout. Wil establishment folks turn out for Dolan or will the Trump base turn out hard core. If it were a presidential year, I would think Vance would have the upper hand, but given an off year, and the other chaos going on with the district maps, Dolan has a strong chance. 

This may be enough to convince me to vote in the Republican primary. Although I'm sure many on this forum (myself included) may not like a lot of Dolan's positions, I don't think you can overstate how much better he is than Mandel or Vance.

 

Does anyone have polling on Nina Turner vs. Shontel Brown. Does Turner have more than an outside chance of winning?

 

(I don't want to get off topic, but this has impact on which primary I vote in.)

12 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

This may be enough to convince me to vote in the Republican primary. Although I'm sure many on this forum (myself included) may not like a lot of Dolan's positions, I don't think you can overstate how much better he is than Mandel or Vance.

 

Does anyone have polling on Nina Turner vs. Shontel Brown. Does Turner have more than an outside chance of winning?

 

(I don't want to get off topic, but this has impact on which primary I vote in.)

 

A). You're right - it shifts us one step closer to getting back to "we disagree on politics, so what"...

 

B) Nina Turner has more visibility, but she did last time too and got crushed. I don't see this being close. 

2 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

This may be enough to convince me to vote in the Republican primary. Although I'm sure many on this forum (myself included) may not like a lot of Dolan's positions, I don't think you can overstate how much better he is than Mandel or Vance.

 

Does anyone have polling on Nina Turner vs. Shontel Brown. Does Turner have more than an outside chance of winning?

 

(I don't want to get off topic, but this has impact on which primary I vote in.)

Voting Nan Whaley over John Cranley is also important. 
Turner vs Shontel - it’s a different map, so who knows how that will turn out. 

When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?

40 minutes ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

Voting Nan Whaley over John Cranley is also important. 
Turner vs Shontel - it’s a different map, so who knows how that will turn out. 

That’s what ended up causing me to change my mind and request a Dem ballot. The more Cranley talked, the more I wanted to make sure to get a vote in for Whaley. 

Vote in the GOP primary.... My god... 

 

 

3 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

This may be enough to convince me to vote in the Republican primary. Although I'm sure many on this forum (myself included) may not like a lot of Dolan's positions, I don't think you can overstate how much better he is than Mandel or Vance.

 

14 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Vote in the GOP primary.... My god... 

 

 

 

Ugh, I hate to pull an R ballot since I'll start getting those mailers but seems like a smart idea w these numbers. Has anyone seen D-Gov polling? I can check that thread too instead of bogging this one down.

Has anyone else seen the Cranley ads trashing Dayton or are they only showing them in Columbus? 

41 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

Has anyone else seen the Cranley ads trashing Dayton or are they only showing them in Columbus? 

 

I've seen them...in Dayton.  Not surprised, he's trash.

"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

If anyone thinks Vance is not that bad of a candidate, he just had Gaetz and Greene campaign with him.  Dolan or bust for the Republicans to have any chance at having a rational GOP candidate.

 

Very Stable Genius

Tim Ryan needs to keep pounding all of the small counties Beto style until November, and relentlessly.  The Matt Dolan results so far and the fact that Mandel has so much support despite the Vance endorsement is all very interesting to me.  I’m glad Mandel isn’t going to win. Nutcase

Interesting enough Dolan is essentially winning in any that goes Democrat or leans Democrat.  Shows that the Republicans in those areas tend to be more moderate.

Pulled a republican ballot earlier, glad to see that Ryan pulled through, hopefully my Dolan vote helped, too. Here's to hoping I didn't screw over Whaley. 

21 minutes ago, GISguy said:

Pulled a republican ballot earlier, glad to see that Ryan pulled through, hopefully my Dolan vote helped, too. Here's to hoping I didn't screw over Whaley. 

Whaley won in a landslide so you made the right decision.  Unfortunately it is looking like Vance has it.

58 minutes ago, BelievelandD1 said:

Tim Ryan needs to keep pounding all of the small counties Beto style until November, and relentlessly.  The Matt Dolan results so far and the fact that Mandel has so much support despite the Vance endorsement is all very interesting to me.  I’m glad Mandel isn’t going to win. Nutcase

 

I almost want Mandel to win since he has the best chance of losing in the general of the three.

JD Vance is an opportunist.  He has never struck me as a true MAGA believer, just someone who will say and do whatever it takes to win.  In some ways, I think that's why Trump endorsed him over the vile creature that is Mandel.  I really don't know how it plays out against Ryan.

 

As for Dewine against Whaley... also who knows.  Dewine is despised by the MAGA crowd, but he's still a Republican and will be running against a woman.  Sexism will probably trump any policy disagreements for them, but there may be some suppressed turnout on the Republican side.  

 

The only good news today is that it seems the most extreme candidates lost, including on the Democratic side.  Cranley sucks and I'm glad he lost.  He couldn't even pull out a win in Cincinnati.

Edited by jonoh81

8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

JD Vance is an opportunist.  He has never struck me as a true MAGA believer, just someone who will say and do whatever it takes to win.  In some ways, I think that's why Trump endorsed him over the vile creature that is Mandel.  I really don't know how it plays out against Ryan.

 

As for Dewine against Whaley... also who knows.  Dewine is despised by the MAGA crowd, but he's still a Republican and will be running against a woman.  Sexism will probably trump any policy disagreements for them, but there may be some suppressed turnout on the Republican side.  

 

Dewine will win easily and Vance will also win. Nothing against Whaley, but she is not a super strong candidate as she does not have the recognition that a Dewine or Sherrod Brown has in Ohio. Dewine has been a name in Ohio for 30 years now. It was not that long ago I was hanging out with Nan and she was a peon in the Montgomery Cty Treasurers office. She did a good job building a name for herself in Dayton, but similar to Cranley, I do not think she has the brand at this time to compete against the established Dewine. If she was in Columbus or Cleveland, the calculus may be different, but being from Dayton does not help her imo.  Couple that with the fact that the winds are blowing red this year and Dewine is generally popular with moderates across the political spectrum, he should win pretty easily. MAGA will be insignificant and will likely support him because they will probably go to the polls and support Vance (as long as Trump does not pull his endorsement in the meantime).

 

I think JD wins too, but it will be closer. Ohio is leaning too much to the right now and also with political headwinds where they are, Vance is most likely going to win (unless he does something really stupid). Completely agree with you on the opportunist part though. I almost think he waded into those waters tonight when he thanked his campaign manager for the advice on encouraging him to say stupid things on occasion and make a fool of himself. The way he phrased it seems to indicate that he does not necessarily buy into the full MAGA stuff, or at least that is how I took it (maybe optimistically).  The biggest challenge he will face is if voters find him sincere and authentic. Ryan's strength is that he is authentic. It will be interesting to watch, but still think Vance wins if only because of inertia alone. If this were 2024, the calculus may be different. 

 

If anyone can break through Ohio, I have faith in Tim Ryan, not a ton, but some. Definitely similar to Sherrod with working class and "working man" vote, but I can't imagine two D senators from Ohio. This race is going to be very, very expensive. 

As bad a human as Vance is, thank god it's not Mandel. 

5 minutes ago, TBideon said:

As bad a human as Vance is, thank god it's not Mandel. 

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

13 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

 

We don't have to, they've done that to themselves.  If your own family hates you, there's probably a good reason.  Mandel has a very long history to back up what an awful person he is.  And the guy that had an ad that appealed to white nationalism by starting it out with "Do you hate Mexicans?" is really not anymore deserving.  Those aren't mere policy disagreements at play.  They are trash.  I couldn't care less about their supposed dignity.

15 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

 

Mandel has done nothing to deserve respect of any kind. His ads are vitriolic and his rhetoric is abhorrent. I wonder if he'll lose his fake Appalachian accent now.

1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

And Mandell did break from Trump and concede the election.  If Vance loses in November surely it will be rigged. 


 

9 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It was not that long ago I was hanging out with Nan and she was a peon in the Montgomery Cty Treasurers office.

 

...but then...

 

9 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

 

I. Just. Can't. 

"You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers

Tim Ryan already framing Vance as the coastal, CNN-commentating elite in his new ad. 
 

 

9 hours ago, GISguy said:

 

If anyone can break through Ohio, I have faith in Tim Ryan, not a ton, but some. Definitely similar to Sherrod with working class and "working man" vote, but I can't imagine two D senators from Ohio. This race is going to be very, very expensive. 

 

Not in 2022.   JD won't be running against Ryan, he will be running against Biden and the national Democratic leadership and he might as well be running against one of the Harbaughs.

9 minutes ago, amped91 said:

Tim Ryan already framing Vance as the coastal, CNN-commentating elite in his new ad. 
 

 

 

Came here to post this. One of the best political ads I've ever seen. And it was ready to go on primary night.

 

Vance is a much better candidate than Mandel, but Tim Ryan may have a real shot.

Really tough match up for JD, he can't out-Ohio Tim Ryan.

7 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

Not in 2022.   JD won't be running against Ryan, he will be running against Biden and the national Democratic leadership and he might as well be running against one of the Harbaughs.

 

Tim Ryan certainly has history running against Democratic leadership (versus Pelosi for house leadership), it will be interesting to see how he frames that. I laughed about it then, but in retrospect it was a smart strategy for later seeking higher office. That's an entire line of typical R campaign strategy that isn't much of an option.

 

I get the feeling Ryan (an a lot of other Democrats) will be running against Alito this year.

 

 

The FiveThirtyEight politics podcast covered the Ohio primaries last night, a couple interesting takaways:

 

- Since Ryan didn't face a strong primary challenge he has been able to campaign for the general election this whole time, that means he doesn't have to pivot and tack towards the center now, so he'll have a consistent campaign message. He's also claimed some of the Trump talking points -- attacking China, calling for more funding of police...

 

- However, Ryan only ran ahead of Biden by 1.5 points in his district. Their take away, Ryan doesn't have a strong track record of winning over many Trump voters. 538 also has Ohio as a partisan lean R+12

 

Full episode here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-ohios-gop-primary-and-what-to-make-of-the-draft-scotus-opinion/

49 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

...but then...

She rose through the county to become Mayor of Dayton. It was a nice accomplishment but my point it is not quite enough political cache to take on someone as established on the political landscape as Dewine. She really has no chance to win. But it could bolster her brand long term for a bigger office down the line if she would pursue it. In a good Democrat year she may be able to position herself to make some waves. This year is not going to be that year for her. 

7 minutes ago, Luke_S said:

The FiveThirtyEight politics podcast covered the Ohio primaries last night, a couple interesting takaways:

 

- Since Ryan didn't face a strong primary challenge he has been able to campaign for the general election this whole time, that means he doesn't have to pivot and tack towards the center now, so he'll have a consistent campaign message. He's also claimed some of the Trump talking points -- attacking China, calling for more funding of police...

 

- However, Ryan only ran ahead of Biden by 1.5 points in his district. Their take away, Ryan doesn't have a strong track record of winning over many Trump voters. 538 also has Ohio as a partisan lean R+12

 

Full episode here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-ohios-gop-primary-and-what-to-make-of-the-draft-scotus-opinion/

Ryan has done a decent job presenting himself in the primaries as a moderate working class Democrat in the way of Sherrod Brown. It is really the only path to success in Ohio for a Democrat. A progressive will never win statewide in Ohio right now.  Dems have to run and govern to the center. The GOP ideally should do the same but given the way the winds are blowing in Ohio, they can get away with running further right at this time. 

 

Given the results of last night, I think Vance wins. First the winds are blowing at the Republicans back this cycle so he is helped by that. Second, Ohio is become more red, but more importantly, as much as I hate to admit it, the Trump brand still carries weight in Ohio. 3-4 weeks ago, Vance was polling in 4th place (depending on how reliable you thought the polls were at that time). Once Trump endorsed he vaulted into first and carried him to victory.  The Trump brand in Ohio galvanizes the working class more than Tim Ryan's message will at this time if only because the Trump brand in Ohio at least is a much bigger machine than the Ohio Dem Party.  As much as I hate to say it, Trump's name is on the ballot for Senate and In Ohio right now, that is a proven winner. 

35 minutes ago, mrCharlie said:

 

I get the feeling Ryan (an a lot of other Democrats) will be running against Alito this year.

 

 

Doubt it, and I actually think focusing too much on Roe would be a terrible strategy for Tim Ryan.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/10/despite-ohio-laws-limiting-abortion-majority-of-voters-think-abortion-should-remain-legal-poll-shows.html

 

Abortion is basically a +13 issue in Ohio. Tim Ryan's strategy so far has been focusing on what are basically +50 issues like lowering taxes for the middle class, "taking back manufacturing jobs from China", etc. Focusing on abortion is a way-too-risky move, and in a very hard to win state (for a Democrat), he needs to veer away from wedge issues. That's what he's doing already, with ads that literally say he doesn't care about the culture war.

 

I could be wrong about how this will shake out, but abortion is an issue where public opinion is notoriously hard to pin down. For instance, polling shows most Americans support Roe v. Wade ... but most also believe the cutoff for legal abortions should be the end of the first trimester (i.e. 13 weeks). These are obviously inconsistent positions. and the only thing that's clear is most Americans fall somewhere between 0 week abortion ban is good and partial birth abortions are good. Roe has made all discussions theoretical for the last 50 years, and it may take a few years for people to realize where they stand when the issue is actually on the legislative table.

 

Finally, there is a remote possibility we get a ruling in June that doesn't overturn Roe but permits abortion restrictions around 10-15 weeks, which (as indicated above) may not actually be that unpopular.

 

 

EDIT: additional source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/

Edited by LlamaLawyer

2 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Abortion is basically a +13 issue in Ohio. Tim Ryan's strategy so far has been focusing on what are basically +50 issues like lowering taxes for the middle class, "taking back manufacturing jobs from China", etc. Focusing on abortion is a way-too-risky move, and in a very hard to win state (for a Democrat), he needs to veer away from wedge issues. That's what he's doing already, with ads that literally say he doesn't care about the culture war.

I think you are spot on here. I saw an report of the top issues all voters are focusing on during this election cycle and abortion did not rank in the top ten for either side (at the present). Normally, it is a top 10 issue but never really a top 5 issue.  people are too focused on inflation right now. Ryan is astute enough to recognize this and not engage in the culture war battle, which will help him out. 

12 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Doubt it, and I actually think focusing too much on Roe would be a terrible strategy for Tim Ryan.

 

Fair enough, you are probably right that he is better off not addressing this issue directly to whatever extent possible. He has a lot to go on that will be a lot more popular in this state.

 

That said, I still think if we see a lot of extreme restrictions taking effect across the country between now and November, that will be a huge benefit to any candidate with a (D) after their name. Even if they don't run on it directly.

Edited by mrCharlie

10 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Do we have to dehumanize the guy. I certainly did not like Mandel and glad he lost, I also did not vote for Vance, but both still deserve some dignity in the process policy positions aside. 

 

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IMO - Tim Ryan is the only Dem that could win a statewide election against a Vance, so it's a good thing he's running. He's well liked in the Steel Valleys - or at least not hated - and he will definitely carry the 3 Cs and Akron. 

 

I actually think it will be tough for Vance to beat him, absent another complete 180 where he turns back into a reasonable Republican. I think it will be really hard for Vance to win the suburban vote by a big enough margin. Places like Strongsville and Westlake (and by transitive property I assume the same is true for Hilliard and Blue Ash) really liked Dolan - that was nearly all of his support. 

 

I don't think Vance can win the state with just the exurbs and rural portions. 

1 hour ago, mrCharlie said:

 

Tim Ryan certainly has history running against Democratic leadership (versus Pelosi for house leadership), it will be interesting to see how he frames that. I laughed about it then, but in retrospect it was a smart strategy for later seeking higher office. That's an entire line of typical R campaign strategy that isn't much of an option.

 

I get the feeling Ryan (an a lot of other Democrats) will be running against Alito this year.

 

 

 

He might have problems doing that:

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/04/18/guns-abortion-china-the-evolution-of-tim-ryan/

 

1 minute ago, Clefan98 said:

 

 

This stuff will be particularly troublesome, as I hear Pukita may run in the general as well. He's going to scrape some FAR right vote from Vance, if so. 

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