Interestingly enough - I have a laundry list of friends who would've lined up to vote for Dolan and even Gibbons. They're all staying home in the fall

21 minutes ago, surfohio said:

It's about time for this to resurface.

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-closer-look-at-why-j-d-vances-stance-on-ukraine-is-unpopular/

This could be a big liability for Vance. He needs votes from places like Parma and Parma has a large Ukrainian population.  

29 minutes ago, freefourur said:

This could be a big liability for Vance. He needs votes from places like Parma and Parma has a large Ukrainian population.  

 

Large is an understatement - I just found out that the Parma/Seven Hills area has the largest concentration of Ukrainians outside of NY and Chicago in the country

Fascinating.

 

A mole hunt, a secret website and Peter Thiel's big risk: How J.D. Vance won his primary

The former Trump critic leaned on a super PAC and his billionaire patron to put him in position for Trump's all-important endorsement.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/03/jd-vance-win-ohio-primary-00029881

For all that money we got "Are you a racist? Do you hate Mexicans?"

15 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

J.D. Vance Wins Republican Senate Primary in Ohio

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/03/us/ohio-indiana-primary-election

 

 

And also from the NYT:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/us/politics/jd-vance-ohio-senate-primary-results.html

 

Before the 2016 election, J.D. Vance called Donald J. Trump “cultural heroin” and a demagogue who was “leading the white working class to a very dark place.”

 

On Tuesday, Mr. Vance’s triumph in a crowded Republican field for Senate in Ohio was thanks largely to an endorsement, late in the race, from the former president he once denounced.

 

The conversion of Mr. Vance, an author and venture capitalist, from Trump skeptic to full-on Trump ally might fill a second memoir, a sequel to his best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy,” Mr. Vance’s story of growing up poor in Kentucky and Ohio. When that book was published in 2016, it was devoured by the “coastal elites” he now rails against as a means for them to decode white working-class support for Mr. Trump.

 

...

 

At Yale, he met a fellow student he would marry, Usha Chilukuri, who went on to clerk for an appeals court judge, Brett M. Kavanaugh. Democrats’ fierce opposition to Mr. Trump’s nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018 appeared to be a turning point in Mr. Vance’s political transformation.

 

“Trump’s popularity in the Vance household went up substantially during the Kavanaugh fight,” he recalled in 2019.

 

=================================================================================

 

So then.

 

Vance is a Catholic, Yale-educated contrarian venture capitalist married to an Indian-American Yale Law grad and former clerk for Justice Roberts, D.C Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh (who has since moved up) and Eastern District of Kentucky Judge Amul Thapar (same), raising three mixed-race kids in Ohio.

 

I know why I would like the guy.

 

I even know why Peter Thiel would like the guy.

 

What in any circle of Hell did Trump see in the guy?!

52 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

What in any circle of Hell did Trump see in the guy?!

 

From the Politico story:

 

“To win a Trump endorsement, a candidate has to show growing ballot share. To get that, a candidate has to own a critical issue,” the memo read. “JD can do that.”

 

and

 

While Trump was aware of Vance’s past condemnations, he was hearing from allies including Carlson and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley who encouraged him to get behind the candidate. And he had recently seen Vance playing golf at Mar-a-Lago, where he complimented the candidate on his swing and his personal appearance. But for the TV-obsessed Trump, it was Vance’s performance in the debates that led the former president to endorse his onetime critic. Trump had met with Mandel and investment banker Mike Gibbons, among other candidates in the field. But he was repulsed when he was shown a clip of the two nearly coming to blows during a March forum. After watching one of later debates in full, the president told advisers he was unimpressed with all of those running, except for Vance.

20 hours ago, surfohio said:

...the president told advisers he was unimpressed with all of those running, except for Vance.

Lol what a ringing endoresement

I suspect that the turnaround from fierce critic to slavish lickspittle is absolute heroin for a narcissist like Trump.  What could be better than to see an enemy now grovelling for your favor?  How can mere loyalty from the beginning compare?

Did not realize the definition of “convincing” changed to barely winning without cracking 30% of the vote. Weisman is awful!

 

 

Read the whole thread, starting with these. Vance is just another scam artist whose welcome ran out in the world of scam charities...

 

 

Vance seems like a truly awful candidate and I actually think Ryan has a chance, by following the Sherrod Brown playbook and focusing on calling out Vance's ridiculous and transparent hypocrisy. Vance still slight favorite unfortunately.

51 minutes ago, mu2010 said:

Vance seems like a truly awful candidate and I actually think Ryan has a chance, by following the Sherrod Brown playbook and focusing on calling out Vance's ridiculous and transparent hypocrisy. Vance still slight favorite unfortunately.

Ryan certainly has a chance but he is running as the underdog. Ironically, 30 years ago, it was the Republican who would have had to run as the Ryan type of campaign to win the broad appeal (like Voinovich and Dewine had to do).

now it is the democrat that must moderate their position to win in Ohio. 
 

it can be done in the right environment. Look at Kentucky as the example. I still think as of now Vance wins. The thing that will help Vance is his Appalachian roots and the appeal thst has toward voters in SE and Eastern Ohio whom were once solid Dems

10 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Ryan certainly has a chance but he is running as the underdog. Ironically, 30 years ago, it was the Republican who would have had to run as the Ryan type of campaign to win the broad appeal (like Voinovich and Dewine had to do).

now it is the democrat that must moderate their position to win in Ohio. 
 

it can be done in the right environment. Look at Kentucky as the example. I still think as of now Vance wins. The thing that will help Vance is his Appalachian roots and the appeal thst has toward voters in SE and Eastern Ohio whom were once solid Dems

 

If you go to SEO and even some people in SWO (Butler County), they don't really like Vance. I have a buddy that helps with the Jefferson County GOP, and he said SEO would've done better with Gibbons or Mandel. 

 

Vance's roots, both in Eastern Kentucky and SWO, are viewed by many as something he tries to exploit, rather than as something he's proud of. 

 

The irony is, Ryan will do better in Appalachian Ohio than any other Dem in the state, Sherrod Brown included. 

 

I think Ryan wins handily (2-4%), believe it or not. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. 

3 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

If you go to SEO and even some people in SWO (Butler County), they don't really like Vance. I have a buddy that helps with the Jefferson County GOP, and he said SEO would've done better with Gibbons or Mandel. 

 

Vance's roots, both in Eastern Kentucky and SWO, are viewed by many as something he tries to exploit, rather than as something he's proud of. 

 

The irony is, Ryan will do better in Appalachian Ohio than any other Dem in the state, Sherrod Brown included. 

 

I think Ryan wins handily (2-4%), believe it or not. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. 

 

I agree with your read on Ryan's performance in Appalachian Ohio and his opportunity to copy the Sherrod Brown playbook.  Not sure about the 2-4% Ryan win prediction, but mostly because the national trendlines are trending Republican at the moment, not because of the particulars of Ryan's issue stances against Vance's.  Then again, maybe 2022 won't be quite as nationalized an election as some of our recent ones have been.  I think Ryan would have a better chance if this were 2020 or 2024, honestly, but it being a midterm will be a (mild and potentially surmountable) handicap for him.

 

Also, even if the race is nationalized, I think Vance's stance on the Russo-Ukraine War will be a liability in November unless the war has faded as an issue by then.  Vance adopted the isolationist view in order to "own" the issue, which helped him in the crowded primary but I don't think it will help him in the general, though how much it will hurt him six months from now is an open question.

 

Vance is a candidate that by every identitarian metric, I should already be all-in for.  I don't think it's great for Vance's chances that I'm not.

26 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

Also, even if the race is nationalized, I think Vance's stance on the Russo-Ukraine War will be a liability in November unless the war has faded as an issue by then.  Vance adopted the isolationist view in order to "own" the issue, which helped him in the crowded primary but I don't think it will help him in the general, though how much it will hurt him six months from now is an open question.

 

This is Vance. Nothing he has ever said in the past matters. Wait five minutes, the guy will be wearing a blue and yellow jumpsuit. 

4 minutes ago, surfohio said:

 

This is Vance. Nothing he has ever said in the past matters. Wait five minutes, the guy will be wearing a blue and yellow jumpsuit. 

 

Maybe wearing a nametag that says JD Mandel?

1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

 

If you go to SEO and even some people in SWO (Butler County), they don't really like Vance. I have a buddy that helps with the Jefferson County GOP, and he said SEO would've done better with Gibbons or Mandel. 

 

Vance's roots, both in Eastern Kentucky and SWO, are viewed by many as something he tries to exploit, rather than as something he's proud of. 

 

The irony is, Ryan will do better in Appalachian Ohio than any other Dem in the state, Sherrod Brown included. 

 

I think Ryan wins handily (2-4%), believe it or not. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. 

If Ryan outperforms Sherrod Brown in SEO, then he will win the election. Brown didn't win any counties south of Mahoning, but he kept them close (unlike in 2016 and 2020 where Trump steamrolled that area). Ryan will do well in the Mahoning Valley and should get much of the Brown supporters in NE Ohio and along the lake over to Toledo. Franklin is about as blue as Cuyahoga at this point so he should run up a margin there; Hamilton is increasingly getting more blue so he should be able to get some separation there, even though it's Vance's backyard. Rural areas outside of SEO have always been huge GOP areas so that will draw Vance closer, but he'll likely need the SEO vote in Trump like numbers to pull in front. 

 

I see why almost everybody has Ryan as the underdog (some places have it solid Republican) based on recent elections. But recent elections don't don't really tell the whole story as to why Ohio has been trending red. Obviously, the biggest is that Trump is the most popular (also the most hated) politician in Ohio. His support though outweighs those who hate him. And since the 2010 election when Kasich narrowly defeated Strickland (by 77,000 votes), it set the table for the recent GOP wave. Kasich's win gave the GOP all three branches of the state government, which allowed them to control the redistricting process that resulted in Ohio's 12-4 House map (not one House seat has changed since those maps went into place). Kasich's win also set the table for the last decade's crop of state legislators ...DeWine, Husted, Yost, Mandel, etc., who all won races along with Kasich in 2010 and have moved up the ladder as either incumbents or as close to incumbents as you can get.

 

The Trump phenomenon strengthened Ohio trending red, but Sherrod Brown showed in 2018 that there still is a blue map to navigate in Ohio. It's a map that Ryan, due to his background, can emulate. Granted, 2018 was a Democratic year nationally (DeWine narrowly won re-election that year ... kind of why he straddled the Covid fence straying from other GOP governors before walking his way to the right on the issue), but Ohio still is a state that has a ton of voters (mainly along Lake Erie and then into Southeast Ohio) who will vote for whichever candidate they feel they can relate to over party.

 

Scrolling at past election results by county shows that. It's easy to see that there were tens of thousands of voters who went Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Sherrod Brown (Senate race in 18) and Trump in 2020. Whoever can capture those votes wins this race.

 

Ryan has the advantage in being "relatable" to those voters, plus he will have a big ally on his side in Sherrod Brown.

 

Vance will try to relate to the Applachian voters in SE Ohio, but like Yabo alluded to, will those voters relate to him or see him as a candidate that has exploited his roots for personal gain? Will touting "Applachian roots" relate to the working class voters in NE Ohio and along the lake who for the most part aren't Appalachian, especially when Tim Ryan is pretty much one of them.

 

Vance also has the Trump factor, but he is not Trump. True, Tim Ryan also isn't Sherrod Brown. But Brown will likely hit the trail hard for Ryan if it's a close race, I can see Trump abandoning support to Vance, unless he sees it being a shoe-in. If it is tracking close, Trump will hedge and distance himself from Vance (see just a couple weeks ago when Trump said he supported J.D. Mandel just before the primary). If Vance then loses, Trump will call him a loser who talked bad about him in the past and never was a true MAGA, which is why he stopped supporting him. If he still wins, Trump will then call Vance something like a "true fighter and patriot" and act as if he never hedged that bet. 

 

Appalachians do not like Cletus Safaris and Vance's book is perceived as one. Even if he has roots there.

 I was recently down from Cleveland in Steubenville for work and have family in the area, and in talking with people, Vance is far from popular. I'm talking about people who primaried for Mandel and Gibbons and refuse to vote for Vance. He's viewed as one guy put it "a corporate puppet installed by Peter Thiel to reduce regulations to line their pockets, steal our tax money, and abandon Ohio." A woman who said she voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 said she's voting for Ryan this fall, her first Democratic candidate ever, because Ryan's "not a Republican, but real and honest." I know Vance won the area, but there's a lot of folks who don't primary and are likely to vote for Ryan now that their preferred candidate is out.

I don't follow political trends too closely, but Vance is going to need to run up deeper margins than he's got right now to offset turnout in the big 6 + Youngstown. I know it's a midterm year with a Democratic president, but Ohio loves to buck the trends. From what I've seen my whole life, Ohio doesn't vote straight Republican or Democrat state-wide... we vote for the populist who promises the most meaningful change. Vance is not that guy.

One last note, "free trade" is a big issue in Appalachia from former and current manufacturing workers. People know Ryan has always voted against free trade bills in the house, and they remember this when their ballot is in front of them.

2 hours ago, ELaunder said:

"a corporate puppet installed by Peter Thiel to reduce regulations to line their pockets, steal our tax money, and abandon Ohio." A woman who said she voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 said she's voting for Ryan this fall, her first Democratic candidate ever, because Ryan's "not a Republican, but real and honest."

This is what Ryan hammered as soon as it was announced that Vance won the primary.  And for the last few months the Tim Ryan ads I see are literally just "China bad." He's winning the early game messaging, hopefully he's got a great ground game as well.  SEO might see the facebook ads, but they're much more likely to vote for the "real and honest" candidate if he's out there knocking on doors.

Edited May 10, 20223 yr by 10albersa

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/jd-vance-trump-republican-frumforum/629814/ [warning, 2 article monthly limit outside incognito mode]

 

The J. D. Vance I Knew

His abilities, I never underestimated. What he was willing to do for political advancement, I did.

By David Frum

 

Last week, Politico reported on a strange leak from the J. D. Vance campaign. A super PAC supporting the Ohio Republican—who won the party’s nomination for Senate on May 3—had commissioned opposition research to help Vance defend against his vulnerabilities. The super PAC discovered that a decade ago, the now staunchly pro-Trump Vance had written a half dozen articles for a website run by a future anti-Trumper: me. Politico found the super PAC’s report and posted a link to it. ...

 

 

Many who knew the early Vance ponder the question: What happened to him?

 

I don’t overthink that question; the answer seems obvious enough. I ponder something else.

 

The anti-populist conservative Vance persona of 2010–17 was well designed to please the individuals and constituencies that held power over his future at that juncture in his career. The angry-white-male persona of 2017–22 was as perfectly aimed at the Thiel-Trump-Tucker nexus as the earlier iteration had been to the Allen-Aspen-Atlantic one.

 

With a Senate nomination secured, Vance now has new constituencies to please. Ohio today is not the swing state it used to be, yet it’s still home to many non-Trumpy constituencies, including tens of thousands of voters of Ukrainian descent. If elected to the Senate, Vance may rekindle still-higher ambitions, ambitions that cannot be realized by the narrowly based support that got him not quite a third of the vote in last week’s Ohio Republican primary. I very much doubt that the “Vance for President” dream has died—not in him, and not in his backers.

 

So the question I ponder is not: What happened to the J.D. I knew? It is: Who will J.D. become next?

 

=====================================

 

A very interesting follow-on reveal to the Politico report on the Vance super PAC leak, about Vance's evolution not just from 2016 to 2022 but from the 2009-2012 period to 2022.  Apparently Vance used to write under a pseudonym for a short-lived site run by longtime center-right stalwart David Frum.  The leitmotif of opportunism and evolutions of convenience is fairly prominent.

 

I've seen some more personal and Vance-sympathetic explanations for that pro-Trump evolution than mere opportunism, mostly notably the fact that Trump nominated Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and Vance is now (but was not when he wrote for FrumForum) married to a fellow Yale Law grad whose career was in part launched by Justice Kavanaugh and was a major defender of his against the last-minute-ambush character assassination campaign by the Democrats against the future justice.

 

I don't mind a bit of evolution of the course of a decade.  I'm in a very different political place now than I was in 2000-2004 when I was an officer of the OSU campus chapter of the ACLU.  (In fairness, the ACLU's positions on some issues near and dear to me have changed, too, as has their prioritization of them, but that's another topic.)  That said, the scale of Vance's evolution involved here is ... curious, to put it mildly.  I also staunchly defended Kavanaugh against the smear campaign against him, but I could never see myself trying to position myself in a political campaign for Trump's endorsement.

52 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/jd-vance-trump-republican-frumforum/629814/ [warning, 2 article monthly limit outside incognito mode]

 

The J. D. Vance I Knew

His abilities, I never underestimated. What he was willing to do for political advancement, I did.

By David Frum

 

Last week, Politico reported on a strange leak from the J. D. Vance campaign. A super PAC supporting the Ohio Republican—who won the party’s nomination for Senate on May 3—had commissioned opposition research to help Vance defend against his vulnerabilities. The super PAC discovered that a decade ago, the now staunchly pro-Trump Vance had written a half dozen articles for a website run by a future anti-Trumper: me. Politico found the super PAC’s report and posted a link to it. ...

 

 

Many who knew the early Vance ponder the question: What happened to him?

 

I don’t overthink that question; the answer seems obvious enough. I ponder something else.

 

The anti-populist conservative Vance persona of 2010–17 was well designed to please the individuals and constituencies that held power over his future at that juncture in his career. The angry-white-male persona of 2017–22 was as perfectly aimed at the Thiel-Trump-Tucker nexus as the earlier iteration had been to the Allen-Aspen-Atlantic one.

 

With a Senate nomination secured, Vance now has new constituencies to please. Ohio today is not the swing state it used to be, yet it’s still home to many non-Trumpy constituencies, including tens of thousands of voters of Ukrainian descent. If elected to the Senate, Vance may rekindle still-higher ambitions, ambitions that cannot be realized by the narrowly based support that got him not quite a third of the vote in last week’s Ohio Republican primary. I very much doubt that the “Vance for President” dream has died—not in him, and not in his backers.

 

So the question I ponder is not: What happened to the J.D. I knew? It is: Who will J.D. become next?

 

=====================================

 

A very interesting follow-on reveal to the Politico report on the Vance super PAC leak, about Vance's evolution not just from 2016 to 2022 but from the 2009-2012 period to 2022.  Apparently Vance used to write under a pseudonym for a short-lived site run by longtime center-right stalwart David Frum.  The leitmotif of opportunism and evolutions of convenience is fairly prominent.

 

I've seen some more personal and Vance-sympathetic explanations for that pro-Trump evolution than mere opportunism, mostly notably the fact that Trump nominated Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and Vance is now (but was not when he wrote for FrumForum) married to a fellow Yale Law grad whose career was in part launched by Justice Kavanaugh and was a major defender of his against the last-minute-ambush character assassination campaign by the Democrats against the future justice.

 

I don't mind a bit of evolution of the course of a decade.  I'm in a very different political place now than I was in 2000-2004 when I was an officer of the OSU campus chapter of the ACLU.  (In fairness, the ACLU's positions on some issues near and dear to me have changed, too, as has their prioritization of them, but that's another topic.)  That said, the scale of Vance's evolution involved here is ... curious, to put it mildly.  I also staunchly defended Kavanaugh against the smear campaign against him, but I could never see myself trying to position myself in a political campaign for Trump's endorsement.

Even listening to Vance now, he seems like he is being led by political consultants (good or bad) and that he is not necessarily being authentic to his core beliefs. Clearly, he is indebted to Trump for fighting for Kavanaugh who I am sure is a close ally to his family, given his wife's connections, but listening to him, you sense that some of his positions are less about what he believes and more about what may garner media attention and press to push his campaign.  I circle back to election night where he was giving his victory speech and he thanked his campaign manager for pushing him in certain directions where he was not comfortable going at first.  He clearly was choosing his words carefully there, but it seems like his political positions and convictions are not as genuine as say Mandel  or Gibbons who (love them or hate them) was a bit more authentic.  It was also interesting that when the campaign started, Vance was positioning himself more along the lines of Timken who was in that more pragmatic moderate lane but then had to tack strongly toward Trump as the summer of 2021 wore on. Timken did this too, but not as well as Vance did. Of course, we cannot discount the Trump endorsement as we would be saying JD who now if not for that. 

Mandel and authentic should never be in the same sentence

2 hours ago, Gramarye said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/jd-vance-trump-republican-frumforum/629814/ [warning, 2 article monthly limit outside incognito mode]

 

The J. D. Vance I Knew

His abilities, I never underestimated. What he was willing to do for political advancement, I did.

By David Frum

 

Last week, Politico reported on a strange leak from the J. D. Vance campaign. A super PAC supporting the Ohio Republican—who won the party’s nomination for Senate on May 3—had commissioned opposition research to help Vance defend against his vulnerabilities. The super PAC discovered that a decade ago, the now staunchly pro-Trump Vance had written a half dozen articles for a website run by a future anti-Trumper: me. Politico found the super PAC’s report and posted a link to it. ...

 

 

Many who knew the early Vance ponder the question: What happened to him?

 

I don’t overthink that question; the answer seems obvious enough. I ponder something else.

 

The anti-populist conservative Vance persona of 2010–17 was well designed to please the individuals and constituencies that held power over his future at that juncture in his career. The angry-white-male persona of 2017–22 was as perfectly aimed at the Thiel-Trump-Tucker nexus as the earlier iteration had been to the Allen-Aspen-Atlantic one.

 

With a Senate nomination secured, Vance now has new constituencies to please. Ohio today is not the swing state it used to be, yet it’s still home to many non-Trumpy constituencies, including tens of thousands of voters of Ukrainian descent. If elected to the Senate, Vance may rekindle still-higher ambitions, ambitions that cannot be realized by the narrowly based support that got him not quite a third of the vote in last week’s Ohio Republican primary. I very much doubt that the “Vance for President” dream has died—not in him, and not in his backers.

 

So the question I ponder is not: What happened to the J.D. I knew? It is: Who will J.D. become next?

 

=====================================

 

A very interesting follow-on reveal to the Politico report on the Vance super PAC leak, about Vance's evolution not just from 2016 to 2022 but from the 2009-2012 period to 2022.  Apparently Vance used to write under a pseudonym for a short-lived site run by longtime center-right stalwart David Frum.  The leitmotif of opportunism and evolutions of convenience is fairly prominent.

 

I've seen some more personal and Vance-sympathetic explanations for that pro-Trump evolution than mere opportunism, mostly notably the fact that Trump nominated Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and Vance is now (but was not when he wrote for FrumForum) married to a fellow Yale Law grad whose career was in part launched by Justice Kavanaugh and was a major defender of his against the last-minute-ambush character assassination campaign by the Democrats against the future justice.

 

I don't mind a bit of evolution of the course of a decade.  I'm in a very different political place now than I was in 2000-2004 when I was an officer of the OSU campus chapter of the ACLU.  (In fairness, the ACLU's positions on some issues near and dear to me have changed, too, as has their prioritization of them, but that's another topic.)  That said, the scale of Vance's evolution involved here is ... curious, to put it mildly.  I also staunchly defended Kavanaugh against the smear campaign against him, but I could never see myself trying to position myself in a political campaign for Trump's endorsement.

 

He learned how to get what he wants from the Trump electorate. Basically the same way Vince McMahon taught Trump how to talk to rural voters except Vance is self-taught.

20 hours ago, smith said:

Mandel and authentic should never be in the same sentence

I thought every east side upper class Jewish guy with a law degree from Case speaks in a southern accent from time to time?  

6 hours ago, Cleburger said:

I thought every east side upper class Jewish guy with a law degree from Case speaks in a southern accent from time to time?  

 

Southern Belle Hillary Clinton flashbacks haha! 

 

edit - actually I'm not too sure what accent she was attempting...I'm afraid to guess. 

Edited May 12, 20223 yr by surfohio

7 hours ago, Cleburger said:

I thought every east side upper class Jewish guy with a law degree from Case speaks in a southern accent from time to time?  

ROFL

 

What happened to this guy, eh? I met him back then and he was a lot nicer.

 

 

7 hours ago, Cleburger said:

I thought every east side upper class Jewish guy with a law degree from Case speaks in a southern accent from time to time?  

You forgot “in the Bible and wrapping himself in the shroud of TurinYou forgot “in the Bible and wrapping himself in the shroud of Turin

43 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

ROFL

 

What happened to this guy, eh? I met him back then and he was a lot nicer.

 

I'm guessing his very high level of ambition turned him into something else. 

All disclaimers in force, i.e., this is basically like the NCAA preseason polls in football or basketball and barely even worth the paper it's printed on (on your screen ...), but the first RCP poll for Vance-Ryan is out:

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/oh/ohio_senate_vance_vs_ryan-7624.html

 

Vance 42, Ryan 39

 

Good number of undecideds, as you would expect at this point.

The good news is that Vance is not a likable person. Tim Ryan needs to show emotion and present bold ideas if he has any hope of winning, though. He can't do the typical boring moderate schtick that's lost the last several elections.

7 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

The good news is that Vance is not a likable person. Tim Ryan needs to show emotion and present bold ideas if he has any hope of winning, though. He can't do the typical boring moderate schtick that's lost the last several elections.

He really needs to mirror Sherrod Brown if he wants to win. I think that's the combination that statewide democrats need. Pro-worker populism and progressive on social issues. 

This poll should start money flowing into the Ohio campaign. It's been rated likely Republican, but I know the Democratic Party is just salivating over the opportunity to pickup in Ohio, PA, and WI.

 

EDIT: Also just have to add that Tim Ryan has some of the best ads I've ever seen.

 

Edited June 1, 20223 yr by LlamaLawyer

Anyone know if there's been discussion of a general election debate location and date yet? Metzenbaum and Voinovich were itching like stray cats to hop on that stage by this point back in '88-- I'm sure Vance and Ryan are ready to tussle. 

"The survey, conducted by Center Street PAC, found Ryan ahead of Vance with 43 percent support to the Republican's 34 percent support as of July 3, while 23 percent were undecided"

 

Center Street PAC is a Lincoln Project type organization

 

https://www.newsweek.com/tim-ryan-crushing-j-d-vance-ohio-senate-race-poll-1722482

10 minutes ago, Chas Wiederhold said:

"The survey, conducted by Center Street PAC, found Ryan ahead of Vance with 43 percent support to the Republican's 34 percent support as of July 3, while 23 percent were undecided"

 

Center Street PAC is a Lincoln Project type organization

 

https://www.newsweek.com/tim-ryan-crushing-j-d-vance-ohio-senate-race-poll-1722482

 

538 has given them a pretty average "C" grade

 

However, 538's average shows Ryan slightly ahead and their odds on his winning have improved.

Tim Ryan Seeks Ohio’s Swing Voters in Senate Race

 

Tim Ryan has a problem.

 

Gas and groceries are both spiking. Ongoing supply chain disruptions mean shelves are bare, and getting inflation under control with the Fed raising interest rates is going to sting as well. Consumers will pay more for everything from credit cards to mortgages. Homeowners looking to sell are going walk away with much less than they would’ve a few months ago.

 

Meanwhile, Democrats are having trouble selling their achievements to voters. President Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and a long-awaited infrastructure package have underwritten many of the investments touted by Republicans like Gov. Mike DeWine, but those successes soured amid a fight over the filibuster in the U.S. Senate.

 

Add to that the traditional midterm headwinds, and the ten-term congressman from Niles really has his work cut out for him.

 

Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court may have provided an opening with its Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade. A few generic ballot polls suggests a swing away from the GOP, but the trend still favors Republicans and November is a long way away. At the same time, many are already voicing frustration with the Democratic nostrum “go vote” when the party already controls Congress and the White House.

 

More below:

https://columbusunderground.com/tim-ryan-seeks-ohios-swing-voters-in-senate-race-ocj1/

 

Ryan is doing a good job trying to define himself 

Vance is doing a lousy job of trying to capitalize on the GOP momentum and define his rival. Vance is running a poor campaign in the general so far. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the Fall

14 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Ryan is doing a good job trying to define himself 

Vance is doing a lousy job of trying to capitalize on the GOP momentum and define his rival. Vance is running a poor campaign in the general so far. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the Fall

 

Should be interesting to see what the value of a Trump endorsement will or will not be come election time. 

It still feels that the only chance Ryan has is if there are multiple independents running to Vance's right. When is the filing deadline again?

12 minutes ago, Dev said:

It still feels that the only chance Ryan has is if there are multiple independents running to Vance's right. When is the filing deadline again?

 

Recent polling data shows Tim is ahead of the puppet. 

Good luck to Ryan, but I wish he'd stop running against the Democrats.  I know he needs to distance himself from certain aspects of the national party, but it doesn't help if he is doing the GOP's job in tarnishing the brand.  He's going to want D house reps from Ohio to work with and eventually another D Senator and a D president.  And let's not forget state level reps and governors.  He needs to be broad minded enough to see this and not poison the well on his way to his own victory.

I don't get the feeling that the Harley Guys are going to show up for Vance. And they're not concerned with factory jobs since they've already got their money. You can tell by their appearance that they are beyond caring about fired.

3 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Recent polling data shows Tim is ahead of the puppet. 

It's July. Take every poll before October with a grain of salt.

1 hour ago, Dev said:

It's July. Take every poll before October with a grain of salt.

 

True. Was just pointing out that Tim Ryan is doing much better than most realized he would. 

 

I wouldn't consider it an upset if he wins either.

Edited July 12, 20222 yr by Clefan98

4 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

I don't get the feeling that the Harley Guys are going to show up for Vance. And they're not concerned with factory jobs since they've already got their money. You can tell by their appearance that they are beyond caring about fired.

 

They're not going to show up because word is out that JD despises his true base. He hates campaigning in small towns and struggles to act the Ohio bumpkin part. Tim doesn't have this problem.

4 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

 

They're not going to show up because word is out that JD despises his true base. He hates campaigning in small towns and struggles to act the Ohio bumpkin part. Tim doesn't have this problem.

But sadly at the end of the day, all he needs is enough culture warriors to show up and tick the "R" box all the way down the ballot.   There are a lot of those in Ohio.  

TIM RYAN IS THROWING OUT THE DEMOCRATIC PLAYBOOK IN OHIO

In his campaign against J.D. Vance, the Ohio rep. has distanced himself from national party leaders, applauded Donald Trump’s trade policies, and is now boasting of the praise he’s received on…Fox News. Could this unusual strategy help flip a Senate seat?

 

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/07/tim-ryan-democratic-playbook-ohio

 

While running as a Blue Dog–style Democrat who gets along with Fox News hosts may seem like an antiquated strategy in 2022, Ryan, a onetime presidential candidate, has taken painstaking steps to portray himself as a political maverick disconnected from the economic crises currently plaguing the ruling party. He has frequently condemned trade deals signed by Democratic presidents, which he blames for allowing China to steal manufacturing jobs from the Rust Belt, and has voiced support for Trump’s “America First” economic policies in two ads. “When Obama’s trade deal threatened jobs here, I voted against it. And I voted with Trump on trade,” Ryan says in one of the ads. “I don’t answer to any political party.” In other campaign ads, the 10-term Democratic lawmaker stressed the need to pass “a real tax cut for workers” and expressed his steadfast support for police.

 

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Ryan is not messing around and he's positioning himself to really crowd the plate on Vance.  Cribbing from the Sherrod Brown playbook on trade and manufacturing is a message that has played well in Ohio for a long time, but it's even more potent in the post-COVID world.  In the old days, we at least got the benefit of the devil's bargain: China was a reliable supplier of cheap goods, which helped keep inflation low.  Because of both its own internal upheavals that have reduced manufacturing output, its own growing internal demand, and the snarls in the global supply chain (one of the more acute manifestations of which is at our West Coast ports), China is now an unreliable supplier of not so cheap goods.  Latin American manufacturing is proving to be something of a mixed bag as well, though the mix of imports is also different there.  Either way, though, the manufacturing-repatriation message has a strong hand to play (or perhaps it's more accurate to say that the pro-globalization side now has a weaker hand to play).

Ryan understands what it's going to take to get some of the Obama-Trump voters to vote for him. Vance is way too in bed with Wall Street and is tripling-down on culture war stuff. I honestly think and hope that the GOP has overplayed their hand on abortion and Ryan has said he'd support doing away with the filibuster to codify women's bodily autonomy. There might be a lot of conservative voters in Ohio but many of them are appalled at what the GOP has been doing in terms of abortion and the like.