20 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

All I get are "Taxin Tim Ryan" ads

 

I haven't gotten those ones yet.  But it sounds like the level of rhetorical artistry in modern political advertising is as refined as ever. 🥺

31 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

All I get are "Taxin Tim Ryan" ads

I do find those ads to be a bit clever and I laugh at how many words beginning with "T" can be strung together at one time. 

13 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I do find those ads to be a bit clever and I laugh at how many words beginning with "T" can be strung together at one time. 

 

Tacking thirty-three t's together = a tenuous, trite triumph.  Tiny trombone.

 

3 hours ago, Gramarye said:

The polls showing a lack of enthusiasm for Vance are borne out in my own offline conversations.  I don't know about true aisle-crossing but I could see low turnout among the "gettable Republican vote," so to speak, failing to carry Vance over the line.

 

You have to wonder if things would've looked better for Vance had he run as a normal person, and not some cartoonish MAGA caricature.  

You have to wonder if Trump’s big plan with his endorsements is meant to keep McConnell from becoming majority leader again. If GOP right wingers win and deny MCConnell Trump gets what he wants. If Dems win and McConnel is denied, Trump also gets what he wants 

10 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

You have to wonder if Trump’s big plan with his endorsements is meant to keep McConnell from becoming majority leader again. If GOP right wingers win and deny MCConnell Trump gets what he wants. If Dems win and McConnel is denied, Trump also gets what he wants 

 

Hence the problem with emotion-based politics

8 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

Hence the problem with emotion-based politics

absolutely. Sticking it to the libs is actually sticking it to McConnell. 

21 hours ago, Gramarye said:

Another anecdotal point: YouTube clearly somehow knows that I lean right.  Yet the ads I'm getting don't target Ryan at all.  I'm seeing the same ridiculous attack ad against Emilia Sykes every damn time I try to watch a soccer or Ukraine clip.  As far as YouTube is concerned, (a) I'm a likely Republican voter or Republican-leaning swing voter, and (b) there is no U.S. Senate race in Ohio this fall. 🤷‍♂️

Lol I'm so glad I paid for YouTube premium. The ads, especially during election years, are absolutely atrocious. I remember in 2016 it was the same 2 Trump and Portman ads over and over again. I wasn't really bothered that they were for candidates I don't prefer, it was just so damn annoying that it was the exact same 2 ads constantly.

1 hour ago, Dev said:

Lol I'm so glad I paid for YouTube premium. The ads, especially during election years, are absolutely atrocious. I remember in 2016 it was the same 2 Trump and Portman ads over and over again. I wasn't really bothered that they were for candidates I don't prefer, it was just so damn annoying that it was the exact same 2 ads constantly.

 

I have a friend that somehow got a new trial period of Pandora Premium (ad-free) every general election season for a while, and then would always cancel rather than pay for an annual subscription the rest of the time.  Not sure if he's still somehow able to get a "new" free trial every year or every other year like that, but it was (and is, if he's still doing it) a worthy effort.

20 hours ago, Gramarye said:

 

I have a friend that somehow got a new trial period of Pandora Premium (ad-free) every general election season for a while, and then would always cancel rather than pay for an annual subscription the rest of the time.  Not sure if he's still somehow able to get a "new" free trial every year or every other year like that, but it was (and is, if he's still doing it) a worthy effort.

Lol gotta respect the hustle

On 9/15/2022 at 11:46 AM, Dev said:

I wasn't really bothered that they were for candidates I don't prefer, it was just so damn annoying that it was the exact same 2 ads constantly.

 

I actually like seeing ads for candidates I dislike on streaming platforms, since whatever they spend showing it to me they can't spend showing it to someone who mind they might actually change.

 

I've managed to avoid any Ryan/Vance ads since YouTube seems to think our AppleTV lives in Pennsylvania - so instead we get nonstop Oz/Fetterman ads. One of those two runs unskippable 15-second versions of the typical doom and gloom B&W scare ads usually seen during the local news. The other makes a quick point in 5 seconds, often with a bit of snark. Seems that Oz's social media people don't understand YouTube either. I feel like one of those campaigns has a slightly better understanding of the online audience...

Edited September 17, 20222 yr by mrCharlie

Senate race debates scheduled:

 

JD Vance & Tim Ryan Agree to Two Debates

 

Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance have agreed to debate after all. But their campaigns are still not entirely on the same page.

 

In a press release touting the “final” debate schedule, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-OH, said there would be a total of three debates: On Oct. 4, the U.S. Senate nominees would meet in Hamilton; on Oct. 10, they’ll meet in Cleveland; and on Oct. 17, they head to Youngstown.

 

The only problem? Vance’s team contends they didn’t agree to the first one.

 

“J.D. has agreed to two debates,” campaign spokesman Luke Schroeder said in a statement, describing those on the 10th and the 17th. “We have reiterated in multiple conversations with (host station) WLWT that an October 4th debate in Hamilton is not logistically possible.”

 

More below:

https://columbusunderground.com/jd-vance-tim-ryan-agree-to-two-debates-ocj1/

 

Some Members of Columbus Somali Community Take Issue with JD Vance’s Anti-Immigrant Stances

 

In an interview last year, Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance brought up violence in a Somali community to defend his hardline stance on immigration policy. Columbus is home to the second largest Somali community in the country.

 

Vance made the comments during an appearance on Jack Murphy Live last September.

 

Murphy is an interesting character in his own right. First, Murphy’s real name is John Goldman. He founded a $100-a-month private online men’s club called The Liminal Order after losing a job with a Washington D.C. charter school board.

 

The charter consulting firm that employed him has drawn scrutiny for its business practices, as has his blog under the Murphy pseudonym. When his writing and connections to the alt-right came to light, the school system placed him on administrative leave. He lost his job shortly after.

 

To make an exceptionally long story short, Murphy’s standing even within conservative circles has more recently come into question.

 

More below:

https://columbusunderground.com/some-members-of-columbus-somali-community-take-issue-with-jd-vances-anti-immigrant-stances-ocj1/

 

*shudders*

Interesting article about the race in the WSJ. 

 

Ohio’s Ryan Offers Potential Road Map for Democrats Struggling in Rust Belt

 

PORTSMOUTH, Ohio—Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s competitive bid for U.S. Senate in a Republican stronghold is offering his party a potential model for appealing to working-class voters in the Rust Belt and forcing Republicans to expend resources to beat him.

 

Mr. Ryan, who avoids calling himself a Democrat, has broken with his party in opposing President Biden’s student-debt forgiveness plan and says Democrats erred in pushing for many Americans to get college degrees. Mr. Ryan frequently mentions that he agrees with former Republican President Donald Trump’s tough stance on China trade policies, and has criticized Mr. Biden for considering rolling back some of Mr. Trump’s import tariffs.

 

...

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ohios-ryan-offers-potential-road-map-for-democrats-struggling-in-rust-belt-11664616604

12 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Some Members of Columbus Somali Community Take Issue with JD Vance’s Anti-Immigrant Stances

 

In an interview last year, Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance brought up violence in a Somali community to defend his hardline stance on immigration policy. Columbus is home to the second largest Somali community in the country.

 

Vance made the comments during an appearance on Jack Murphy Live last September.

 

Murphy is an interesting character in his own right. First, Murphy’s real name is John Goldman. He founded a $100-a-month private online men’s club called The Liminal Order after losing a job with a Washington D.C. charter school board.

 

The charter consulting firm that employed him has drawn scrutiny for its business practices, as has his blog under the Murphy pseudonym. When his writing and connections to the alt-right came to light, the school system placed him on administrative leave. He lost his job shortly after.

 

To make an exceptionally long story short, Murphy’s standing even within conservative circles has more recently come into question.

 

More below:

https://columbusunderground.com/some-members-of-columbus-somali-community-take-issue-with-jd-vances-anti-immigrant-stances-ocj1/

 

*shudders*

Garbage Pail Kid lookin mfer. Actually that’s an insult to Adam Bomb et al.

1 hour ago, Ethan said:

Interesting article about the race in the WSJ. 

 

Ohio’s Ryan Offers Potential Road Map for Democrats Struggling in Rust Belt

 

PORTSMOUTH, Ohio—Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s competitive bid for U.S. Senate in a Republican stronghold is offering his party a potential model for appealing to working-class voters in the Rust Belt and forcing Republicans to expend resources to beat him.

 

Mr. Ryan, who avoids calling himself a Democrat, has broken with his party in opposing President Biden’s student-debt forgiveness plan and says Democrats erred in pushing for many Americans to get college degrees. Mr. Ryan frequently mentions that he agrees with former Republican President Donald Trump’s tough stance on China trade policies, and has criticized Mr. Biden for considering rolling back some of Mr. Trump’s import tariffs.

 

...

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ohios-ryan-offers-potential-road-map-for-democrats-struggling-in-rust-belt-11664616604

 

Republicans also pushed everyone to get college degrees until the mid to late 2000s when the party got wrapped up in anti-intillectualism. 

I’m glad someone took the time to put these together.

 

On 8/31/2022 at 8:25 PM, bumsquare said:

Quelle surprise!

 

https://www.clevescene.com/news/jimmy-and-dee-haslam-hosting-fundraiser-for-jd-vance-that-tracks-39881139?media=AMP+HTML

Tim Ryan's dig in the debates was something along the lines of "Ohio needs an ass-kicker not a ass-kisser."  What does this say about the Browns' ownership?  LOL

It's a shame the DNC remains clueless and isn't giving Ryan the support he needs to win. 

16 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

It's a shame the DNC remains clueless and isn't giving Ryan the support he needs to win. 

Are they clueless or are they pissed at Ryan for essentially running a race that is openly hostile to chunks of the progressive platforms?

I still feel that they would smell blood in the water and think the seat is a potential pickup or at least a seat the GOP would have to more vigorously devote resources to the detriment of other competitive races. 

I will say that the environment and energy in Ohio for the Senate race (and Gov race) has been pretty blah lately. I have not felt this lack of energy in a while on boards as well as the airwaves. There seems to be a collective meh on both sides of the Senate race and state house races. 

 

In 2016, 2018 and 2020 there seemed to be much more passion on each side even down to Congressional races. That energy just does not seem to be there anymore (of course it may have to do with UO getting rid of most of the national political topics). 

Holy cow that is absolutely amazing. I didn’t think it was possible for me to think any more highly of@richNcincy and/or @ColDayMan, but they continue to raise the bar. 

Democrats are supporting Ryan behind the scenes. That is the way Ryan wants it. I know because I am one of his supporters and give accordingly.

And tragic

 

 

7 minutes ago, KJP said:

And tragic

 

 

 

The Onion's gunna Onion.   

 

If I was running JD's campaign I would run against Schumer, Harris (especially Harris) and Pelosi.  Since when it's said and done he would vote their way in the Senate.

 

I still think Ryan can pull it out, though of course I hope not.

 

I might have voted for him against Dewine.

On 10/11/2022 at 3:17 PM, Brutus_buckeye said:

Are they clueless or are they pissed at Ryan for essentially running a race that is openly hostile to chunks of the progressive platforms?

I still feel that they would smell blood in the water and think the seat is a potential pickup or at least a seat the GOP would have to more vigorously devote resources to the detriment of other competitive races. 

 

Both.

lol a murdoch take on the peedee:

 

 

JD Vance campaign rips Cleveland newspaper over cartoon ‘racism’

 

By Caitlin Doornbos

October 19, 2022

 

 

more … or less:

https://nypost.com/2022/10/19/jd-vance-campaign-rips-cleveland-newspaper-over-cartoon-racism/

On 10/18/2022 at 9:07 AM, E Rocc said:

 

The Onion's gunna Onion.   

 

If I was running JD's campaign I would run against Schumer, Harris (especially Harris) and Pelosi.  Since when it's said and done he would vote their way in the Senate.

 

I still think Ryan can pull it out, though of course I hope not.

 

I might have voted for him against Dewine.

 

 

blah blah blah of course you hope not. you would rather vance. sez it all.

12 hours ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

blah blah blah of course you hope not. you would rather vance. sez it all.

 

I preferred Dolan, but he didn't win.  

21 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

I preferred Dolan, but he didn't win.  

An argument can be made that the Dolan/Ryan Venn diagram is closer to a circle than the Dolan/Vance. 

52 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

An argument can be made that the Dolan/Ryan Venn diagram is closer to a circle than the Dolan/Vance. 

 

 

just slightly. 🙄😅

 

meanwhile, vance is a mealy weasal of the type to wreck america at every turn. don't put that guy in.

i wouldnt think he needs that kind of help?

 

 

23 hours ago, YABO713 said:

An argument can be made that the Dolan/Ryan Venn diagram is closer to a circle than the Dolan/Vance. 

It depends where you are on certain issues of course. If you are Pro-Life, the leftward tilt of the democratic party poses a problem in that area that almost makes it untenable. I know a lot of pro-life voters who rate that as one of their top 3 issues. Whereas I do not see it as much on the pro-choice side. A lot less passion on that end for the issue outside of the super liberal feminazi crowd. 

 

In the past Ryan has certainly had some pro-life credentials, but he also understands that it is not tenable in today's democratic party to hold that position, despite his likely personal preferences. To your point, I am sure Ryan is certainly more moderate than Vance on even the abortion issue but party pressure has likely pulled him further left than he would naturally prefer.

Edited October 21, 20222 yr by Brutus_buckeye

2 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

 A lot less passion on that end for the issue outside of the super liberal feminazi crowd. 

I think you are underestimating this.   True, lefties and moderate women don't drive pickup trucks around with flags celebrating Roe.  It's a private decision for many women, and WAY more than you know have had a procedure.   

 

My four college age nieces are all suddenly interested in voting this November.   And that's a good thing.  

Early voting so far in Hamilton County:

 

 

2 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

My four college age nieces are all suddenly interested in voting this November.   And that's a good thing.  

The college/younger vote is certainly one that brims with passion but not as much action. IT will be interesting to see if they come out to vote in greater proportion than years past. I do not think that motivated college and 20 something females will be enough to outweigh more of the middle aged and senior voters who (even if they may be a soft pro-choice) are not as passionate about it and more concerned about the kitchen table issues and the economy than abortion. A tick up of a point or two in the college vote is not going to significantly sway things, especially in a state like Ohio.

 

There have been a number of recent polls done lately that show the abortion issue is just not moving or stoking the passion of independent voters the same way it did back in the summer when the Dobbs decision first came out. Also, gas prices were coming down and inflation had stabilized at that point. Now interest rates are going up, inflation is rising again, gas prices are rising and people are more concerned about their jobs. These issues take priority for the vast majority of people and abortion is more of a "first world problem" and many feel they can fight that battle at a later time.  So there is likely going to be a reality that the Dems have overplayed their hand on the issue. 

 

One of the big problems the Dems have by focusing so much on abortion and especially such an extreme position in many cases is that if they lose, the vast majority of states will not see any or much change in the abortion laws and the majority of women will still be able to readily get an abortion anyway. Certain states that may have super restrictive abortion laws would never vote for a Dem candidate anyway and the ones who are most vocal about the issue live in very blue states. So, if the GOP wins the house and senate next year, nothing much will change and many voters may see the abortion push as nothing more than a chicken little moment. 

2 minutes ago, taestell said:

Early voting so far in Hamilton County:

 

 

I do not think this really says much though. My biggest takeaway is that GOP voters were slower to embrace early voting and preferred to vote on election day (still true), however, as time goes on, more and more GOP voters are open to engaging in early voting instead of election day and you are likely to see more of an even distribution of numbers between voters as time goes by. 

12 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I do not think this really says much though. My biggest takeaway is that GOP voters were slower to embrace early voting and preferred to vote on election day (still true), however, as time goes on, more and more GOP voters are open to engaging in early voting instead of election day and you are likely to see more of an even distribution of numbers between voters as time goes by. 

 

Is this because they, too, want to take advantage of ballot harvesting?

53 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

I think you are underestimating this.   True, lefties and moderate women don't drive pickup trucks around with flags celebrating Roe.  It's a private decision for many women, and WAY more than you know have had a procedure.   

 

My four college age nieces are all suddenly interested in voting this November.   And that's a good thing.  

My very moderate wife who's voted for both Democrats and Republicans in recent elections was absolutely disgusted with the Dobbs decision and has vowed to never vote for another Republican until abortion rights are codified.  In fact she wears a ring every day that publicly shows her position on the issue.  She's pissed, she blames Republicans for politicizing this issue, and she isn't the only one.

1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I do not think this really says much though. My biggest takeaway is that GOP voters were slower to embrace early voting and preferred to vote on election day (still true), however, as time goes on, more and more GOP voters are open to engaging in early voting instead of election day and you are likely to see more of an even distribution of numbers between voters as time goes by. 

 

Your logic doesn't make sense. If GOP voters are gradually coming around to early voting there would be more of them so far in 2022 than in 2018 and it is very strikingly the opposite. 

1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

 

Is this because they, too, want to take advantage of ballot harvesting?

I think more and more GOP voters are seeing benefits in voting early. Plus with a demographic shift some of those voters were Dems 10 years ago. I just do not think the raw data like this a week in really offers many conclusions

39 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Your logic doesn't make sense. If GOP voters are gradually coming around to early voting there would be more of them so far in 2022 than in 2018 and it is very strikingly the opposite. 

Whoops I looked at the chart wrong. I was thinking 2018 was on top. 
i still do not think you can draw meaningful conclusions this early in the process though. 

22 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

Whoops I looked at the chart wrong. I was thinking 2018 was on top. 
i still do not think you can draw meaningful conclusions this early in the process though. 

 

You're a trip, dude!

 

Brutus- "See what this data tells us is blah, blah, blah Democrats are screwed"

 

forumers- "You're holding it upside down"

 

Brutus- "You can't tell anything by this data"

57 minutes ago, X said:

 

You're a trip, dude!

 

Brutus- "See what this data tells us is blah, blah, blah Democrats are screwed"

 

forumers- "You're holding it upside down"

 

Brutus- "You can't tell anything by this data"

I admit when I misread the info. BUT the point is, after 1 week of early voting, you really cant tell much about the numbers. To speculate what things will be like after a week of early voting is silly. Get a larger sample size and then draw conclusions. 

 

6 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

I admit when I misread the info. BUT the point is, after 1 week of early voting, you really cant tell much about the numbers. To speculate what things will be like after a week of early voting is silly. Get a larger sample size and then draw conclusions. 

 

Correct, at this point it is all about getting out the vote, that is something polls can't measure.

To my Dem friends, I hope you are all taking note of Tim Ryan's campaign. This is how you have to win elections. Ignore "culture war" talking points, and run center to center-left candidates. 

 

Dude is getting virtually no support from the DNC and is somehow polling ahead of JD Vance, who's receiving the full arsenal of GOP funds and resources. 

1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

To my Dem friends, I hope you are all taking note of Tim Ryan's campaign. This is how you have to win elections. Ignore "culture war" talking points, and run center to center-left candidates. 

 

Dude is getting virtually no support from the DNC and is somehow polling ahead of JD Vance, who's receiving the full arsenal of GOP funds and resources. 

 

The quiet part they won't say out loud is that they want Ryan's seat and his vote but not his policies, or at least not those that he gives the impression that he's supporting.  They don't want to be triangulated against, they want someone who's fully on board with their platform and can somehow sell it to an Ohio audience; they want to convert Ohioans, not cater to them.

 

Remember, if Ryan's message is a winning one, that's not exactly an endorsement of the Democratic Party platform, and even less so it is an endorsement of the relative ranking of priorities within that platform.

 

On a separate note: You say Vance is getting the full arsenal of GOP funds and resources, but my current impression is that he's actually getting more national GOP support than state GOP support.  Maybe I'm wrong about that, looking in the wrong places, or simply nationally known supporters get the media oxygen and I miss other relevant information.

12 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

To my Dem friends, I hope you are all taking note of Tim Ryan's campaign. This is how you have to win elections. Ignore "culture war" talking points, and run center to center-left candidates. 

 

Dude is getting virtually no support from the DNC and is somehow polling ahead of JD Vance, who's receiving the full arsenal of GOP funds and resources. 

Agreed. 
Tsunami of spend against Ryan is ridiculous. I say ‘against Ryan’, as opposed to ‘for Vance’ deliberately. As is usual, the GOP give zero reasons to vote for their guy, but a million reasons why not to vote for the other guy. It’s almost like they have no platform, or one so rancid, they know most right-thinking people don’t want it. 

If Tim Ryan wins, it's a combination of JD Vance being an unlikeable person, and Ryan running a smart campaign. I still think JD Vance wins by several points. I doubt vote counting gets dragged out beyond election night. But it's certainly possible.

 

If he were running against an establishment R in Ohio, he would probably lose by 8-10 points easy.