16 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

To my Dem friends, I hope you are all taking note of Tim Ryan's campaign. This is how you have to win elections. Ignore "culture war" talking points, and run center to center-left candidates. 

 

Dude is getting virtually no support from the DNC and is somehow polling ahead of JD Vance, who's receiving the full arsenal of GOP funds and resources. 

Tim Ryan is an ideal Democratic candidate to run against Trump Republicans.  His pro-worker message takes the America First slogans off the table and shifts the focus to issues that Democrats can win on.  He briefly spoke at a technical conference that I attended in Youngstown and the big applause line was "we have to stop talking about stupid sh*t."  Totally agree that Dem leaders need to follow his lead and stop catering to the stupid sh*t that people in the party say and do.

24 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

If Tim Ryan wins, it's a combination of JD Vance being an unlikeable person, and Ryan running a smart campaign. I still think JD Vance wins by several points. I doubt vote counting gets dragged out beyond election night. But it's certainly possible.

 

If he were running against an establishment R in Ohio, he would probably lose by 8-10 points easy.

 

Agreed - I think Dolan would've won this race by close to 10... but he might've gotten outflanked from the right by someone else. 

 

I honestly think Tim Ryan wins this one, though I'm likely wrong. But Baldwin Wallace's most recent poll is the only one that had over 20% of participants under the age of 40, and that age demographic makes up close to 30-35% of Ohio's registered voters - Ryan leads by a few points there. 

1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

I honestly think Tim Ryan wins this one, though I'm likely wrong. But Baldwin Wallace's most recent poll is the only one that had over 20% of participants under the age of 40, and that age demographic makes up close to 30-35% of Ohio's registered voters - Ryan leads by a few points there. 

 

IF they actually show up and vote.  That's been a problem.

1 hour ago, Hootenany said:

Tim Ryan is an ideal Democratic candidate to run against Trump Republicans.  His pro-worker message takes the America First slogans off the table and shifts the focus to issues that Democrats can win on.  He briefly spoke at a technical conference that I attended in Youngstown and the big applause line was "we have to stop talking about stupid sh*t."  Totally agree that Dem leaders need to follow his lead and stop catering to the stupid sh*t that people in the party say and do.

If Ryan loses, the biggest fear is that many on the Dem side will err and say that he did not emphasize Abortion or Jan 6 enough and run to try and energize the progressive base in the state. I will never understand that line of thinking. 

 

Look at how Ryan is running and where he stands vs the campaign Whaley is running. Whaley is running the tried and true Dem playbook campaign and is getting her clock cleaned. Ryan is running as a moderate talking solely about the economy and outperforming expectations in a race he would normally not be close at. Yes, I know Vance is a bad candidate but Ohio is a red state.  Look at a Whaley add and it focuses on guns, abortion while Ryan has focused solely on jobs, jobs, jobs. Want to know what wins in Ohio, it is jobs. 

Anyone with any knowledge of Ohio politics knew from the outset that JD Vance is a vulnerable candidate, and DeWine is not. Tim Ryan would also be getting crushed by DeWine.

3 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

Anyone with any knowledge of Ohio politics knew from the outset that JD Vance is a vulnerable candidate, and DeWine is not. Tim Ryan would also be getting crushed by DeWine.

Ryan would have lost to Dewine too, but he would have made it closer. He would not lose by 20, Ryan would lose by single digits probably 5-7 points which if handicapping it, would be considered a win, or overperforming. If Whaley meets expectations she loses by 10-12. If she doesn't she underperforms and was a bad candidate.

31 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

If Ryan loses, the biggest fear is that many on the Dem side will err and say that he did not emphasize Abortion or Jan 6 enough and run to try and energize the progressive base in the state. I will never understand that line of thinking. 

 

Look at how Ryan is running and where he stands vs the campaign Whaley is running. Whaley is running the tried and true Dem playbook campaign and is getting her clock cleaned. Ryan is running as a moderate talking solely about the economy and outperforming expectations in a race he would normally not be close at. Yes, I know Vance is a bad candidate but Ohio is a red state.  Look at a Whaley add and it focuses on guns, abortion while Ryan has focused solely on jobs, jobs, jobs. Want to know what wins in Ohio, it is jobs. 

As long as Ryan outperforms Biden's 2020 numbers (he will) then you can't make that argument on the Democratic side.

49 minutes ago, Hootenany said:

As long as Ryan outperforms Biden's 2020 numbers (he will) then you can't make that argument on the Democratic side.

Logically speaking yes, but I do not think that is the narrative we will see in the media on the national dem side. 

Wow, 538 giving Vance 78/100 chance of winning. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

5 minutes ago, surfohio said:

Wow, 538 giving Vance 78/100 chance of winning. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

That has less to do with Ryan or Vance and more to do with the overall electorate breaking Republican at this point. If both Ryan and Vance had R behind their names and it was merely a preference for a candidate, Ryan would likely win big. 

As of 5:30 PM, turnout in Cuyahoga County passed 2014 levels. But the last two hours have to be really active for us to get to 2018 turnout levels. If we're not matching or at least coming close to 2018 turnout, that bodes poorly for Tim Ryan.

welp lorain county annihilated that nitwit vance and therefore his proxy trumpenstein, so they did their part.

Only absentee and 10% of precincts reporting so far, but it's fascinating to see how the vote differs in the Governor and Senate races.

 

Gov (57 Whaley-43 DeWine):

 

Senate (63 Ryan-33 Vance):

whaley is really set up well for next time. as she should be!

2 hours ago, mrnyc said:

whaley is really set up well for next time. as she should be!

If there is a next time. Not 100% sure the country is going to make it out of this. 

9 hours ago, mrnyc said:

welp lorain county annihilated that nitwit vance and therefore his proxy trumpenstein, so they did their part.

 

This aged poorly.  

2 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

This aged poorly.  

 

 

ha -- the allure of a j.d.! good luck with that sniveling toady you personally voted for over a decent human being getting even one thing done and not wrecking something or worse some things.

I'm interested to see what the ultimate margin of victory is for J.D. Vance. When I initially saw up 7 it made me feel kinda sick, but there's still a lot of Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton County outstanding, so you may see that margin drop.

1 hour ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

ha -- the allure of a j.d.! good luck with that sniveling toady you personally voted for over a decent human being getting even one thing done and not wrecking something or worse some things.

It was interesting and perhaps a positive sign in JD's victory sense in what was not said. Namely, he thanked numerous people from his family to his wife, to governor Dewine and other key GOP members in Ohio for helping him with the election. Noticeably absent was the name of Donald Trump. Obviously, Trump thinly endorsed Vance and campaigned with him up until the night before, but I think JD may have tired of his act and found him to be less help then his endorsement was worth. It will be interesting after the overall election if JD can throw Trump overboard for good. 

5 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

It was interesting and perhaps a positive sign in JD's victory sense in what was not said. Namely, he thanked numerous people from his family to his wife, to governor Dewine and other key GOP members in Ohio for helping him with the election. Noticeably absent was the name of Donald Trump. Obviously, Trump thinly endorsed Vance and campaigned with him up until the night before, but I think JD may have tired of his act and found him to be less help then his endorsement was worth. It will be interesting after the overall election if JD can throw Trump overboard for good. 

 

He's an opportunist above all else, so it could be possible

1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

 

He's an opportunist above all else, so it could be possible

He is, as are almost all politicians who advance to the highest levels of National politics. You could say the same thing about Tim Ryan too to a certain extent. 

My take on Vance, when you read his bio and background and his prior statements, was that he was a right leaning individual politically but that he read the tea leaves in Ohio and realized that he needed to act like Trump and even get his endorsement if he were going to compete on the Republican side in Ohio in 2022. It is hard to believe that he believes all of his own rhetoric, while some of the other individuals such as Mandel or Reneacci truly do believe their rhetoric.  Would I have certainly preferred someone like Matt Dolan? Of course, but I am optimistic that JD will not be Trump Jr. in office and governor more closer to Portman than a Cruz

Once again:

 

 

Meme aside: it hurts Tim Ryan that someone like DeWine was running for Governor. He carried the Republicans across statewide for the most part (despite multiple reasons not to vote for him on basic corruption/gerrymandering levels). You could also argue that Democrats abandoned Tim Ryan.

But honestly, he was never going to win this election. He pretended to be a Republican, and lost. If Dems in Ohio had put up an authentic candidate like John Fetterman, they would have had a chance in a red state. 

 

Whenever Sherrod Brown retires, that seat is going red barring some authentic candidate replacing him. If Sherrod Brown was a newcomer to statewide politics, he wouldn't win either.

12 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

He is, as are almost all politicians who advance to the highest levels of National politics. You could say the same thing about Tim Ryan too to a certain extent. 

My take on Vance, when you read his bio and background and his prior statements, was that he was a right leaning individual politically but that he read the tea leaves in Ohio and realized that he needed to act like Trump and even get his endorsement if he were going to compete on the Republican side in Ohio in 2022. It is hard to believe that he believes all of his own rhetoric, while some of the other individuals such as Mandel or Reneacci truly do believe their rhetoric.  Would I have certainly preferred someone like Matt Dolan? Of course, but I am optimistic that JD will not be Trump Jr. in office and governor more closer to Portman than a Cruz

“while some of the other individuals such as Mandel or Reneacci truly do believe their rhetoric.”

The idea that Mandel believes his rhetoric made me laugh out loud. Mandel ABSOLUTELY knows it’s a load of crap and seemed to take great joy in saying whatever he thought people needed to hear for him to win. If Josh was in Illinois and everything else about him was exactly the same, he would have run all his politics as a Democrat. He only cares about winning and adopts whatever positions he thinks will help him win. 

18 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

He is, as are almost all politicians who advance to the highest levels of National politics. You could say the same thing about Tim Ryan too to a certain extent. 

My take on Vance, when you read his bio and background and his prior statements, was that he was a right leaning individual politically but that he read the tea leaves in Ohio and realized that he needed to act like Trump and even get his endorsement if he were going to compete on the Republican side in Ohio in 2022. It is hard to believe that he believes all of his own rhetoric, while some of the other individuals such as Mandel or Reneacci truly do believe their rhetoric.  Would I have certainly preferred someone like Matt Dolan? Of course, but I am optimistic that JD will not be Trump Jr. in office and governor more closer to Portman than a Cruz

 

Respectfully disagree, I'm not sure Rob Portman frequently went on Tucker to assert that Ted Strickland would flood Ohio with illegal immigrants and have the government pay for them to have gender reassignment surgeries. If you want to say that was just him throwing out red meat to the base, then he's a POS, not an opportunist. 

 

Tim Ryan was an opportunist in the sense that he talked about voting with Trump on trade after bashing him for 4 years... that's a far cry from Vance's 180 and conduct. 

On 11/9/2022 at 10:21 AM, ryanlammi said:

Once again:

 

 

Meme aside: it hurts Tim Ryan that someone like DeWine was running for Governor. He carried the Republicans across statewide for the most part (despite multiple reasons not to vote for him on basic corruption/gerrymandering levels). You could also argue that Democrats abandoned Tim Ryan.

But honestly, he was never going to win this election. He pretended to be a Republican, and lost. If Dems in Ohio had put up an authentic candidate like John Fetterman, they would have had a chance in a red state. 

 

Whenever Sherrod Brown retires, that seat is going red barring some authentic candidate replacing him. If Sherrod Brown was a newcomer to statewide politics, he wouldn't win either.

Come on, Tim Ryan wildly outperformed all the more progressive statewide candidates. He definitely helped on D’s winning the three Congressional seats that were long shots.  [Edit: I retract - the D rep-elects earned their wins. Ryan helped the national party, but did not help the Ohio D Reps nearly as much as they earned it themselves.)
 

For me, the big lesson is that we need to improve voter turnout in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. (Along with gerrymandering reform.) That is the best path for improving D results. 

31 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

He is, as are almost all politicians who advance to the highest levels of National politics. You could say the same thing about Tim Ryan too to a certain extent. 

My take on Vance, when you read his bio and background and his prior statements, was that he was a right leaning individual politically but that he read the tea leaves in Ohio and realized that he needed to act like Trump and even get his endorsement if he were going to compete on the Republican side in Ohio in 2022. It is hard to believe that he believes all of his own rhetoric, while some of the other individuals such as Mandel or Reneacci truly do believe their rhetoric.  Would I have certainly preferred someone like Matt Dolan? Of course, but I am optimistic that JD will not be Trump Jr. in office and governor more closer to Portman than a Cruz

 

Mandel would have lost to Tim Ryan. Renacci probably would have too. J.D. Vance is a better candidate than either of them and if he weren't such a disingenuous ass, he would have won by a larger margin.

 

16 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

Once again:

 

 

 

I think this meme just reflects the national problem that Democrats have. A lot of young people are very liberal and just won't get excited for a candidate like Tim Ryan. But a lot of the base is also fairly moderate and shies away from candidates like AOC. The Democrats are lucky that they're only halfway dysfunctional right now while the Republican party (most of it) is circling the drain.

1 minute ago, YABO713 said:

 

Respectfully disagree, I'm not sure Rob Portman frequently went on Tucker to assert that Ted Strickland would flood Ohio with illegal immigrants and have the government pay for them to have gender reassignment surgeries. If you want to say that was just him throwing out red meat to the base, then he's a POS, not an opportunist. 

 

Tim Ryan was an opportunist in the sense that he talked about voting with Trump on trade after bashing him for 4 years... that's a far cry from Vance's 180 and conduct. 

We will have to see how Vance governs in the legislature. Its all speculation at this point, but if he acts like the Senate version of MGT or Matt Gaetz, then I will gladly let you tell me "I told you so." As you well know, I am not afraid to admit I am wrong and also pay up on my bets when I am wrong :) 

3 minutes ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

Come on, Tim Ryan wildly outperformed all the more progressive statewide candidates. He definitely helped on D’s winning the three Congressional seats that were long shots. 
 

For me, the big lesson is that we need to improve voter turnout in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. (Along with gerrymandering reform.) That is the best path for improving D results. 

 

What other statewide progressive candidates were there? Serious question. No one had heard of any of the statewide candidates. I, someone very engaged in politics, had barely heard of a couple of the Democrats running for various statewide offices. I wouldn't be surprised if they combined for $0 in TV ads. This is all mainly because DeWine was a shoe-in and the rest of the offices were going to fall in line with the Governor's race. The only statewide race that was even close to possibly being a contest was US Senate.

 

Democratic Supreme Court candidates lost because the Republicans realized that their electorate never bothered to research judges, so they decided to change state law and put party affiliations next to justices' names. Without that, it probably would have been a close race.

 

Every single year Republicans pretend that if we nominate a moderate, that they have a chance. Every year that moderate loses by 6+ points.

14 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

Once again:

 

 

Meme aside: it hurts Tim Ryan that someone like DeWine was running for Governor. He carried the Republicans across statewide for the most part (despite multiple reasons not to vote for him on basic corruption/gerrymandering levels). You could also argue that Democrats abandoned Tim Ryan.

But honestly, he was never going to win this election. He pretended to be a Republican, and lost. If Dems in Ohio had put up an authentic candidate like John Fetterman, they would have had a chance in a red state. 

 

Whenever Sherrod Brown retires, that seat is going red barring some authentic candidate replacing him. If Sherrod Brown was a newcomer to statewide politics, he wouldn't win either.

 

Lol - projection is wild. Until Cleveland gets above a 30% participation rate, let's pass on these memes. 

 

Ryan flipped exurbs and rural votes and outpaces both Biden and Whaley significantly in key areas. All the cities had to do was show up. But they never do. 

 

I follow a stats geek on twitter that said a 50 - 55% participation rate in the 3 Cs would've been more than enough for Ryan to win. I'm bad at math so I fully admit I'm unable to verify that stat on my own. 

7 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

Once again:

 

 

Meme aside: it hurts Tim Ryan that someone like DeWine was running for Governor. He carried the Republicans across statewide for the most part (despite multiple reasons not to vote for him on basic corruption/gerrymandering levels). You could also argue that Democrats abandoned Tim Ryan.

But honestly, he was never going to win this election. He pretended to be a Republican, and lost. If Dems in Ohio had put up an authentic candidate like John Fetterman, they would have had a chance in a red state. 

 

Whenever Sherrod Brown retires, that seat is going red barring some authentic candidate replacing him. If Sherrod Brown was a newcomer to statewide politics, he wouldn't win either.

A progressive will never win in Ohio. To piggyback on @Boomerang_Brian, Ryan ran about as well as a Democrat can in Ohio at this point. Ohio is not a purple state and Sherrod Brown is a relic of Ohio's past status as a bellwether state. If Dems want to win in Ohio they need to run the campaign Ryan ran. Most races they will still lose, but there will be years where the Dems have headwinds and will pull off a victory when they have the right candidate like Ryan and a weak GOP candidate in a favorable Dem year. This was not that year. 

 

History has shown how progressives underperform in Ohio. Of course you could point to the Gov race and contract Whaley vs Ryan, but I know the power of the Dewine name clouds that some. But look at other items. Take Issue 1 & 2. Both passed overwhelmingly which means a large portion of voters for Ryan and Whaley voted Yes. While Whaley may have supported those issues, many of the true progressives would not have been in favor of them. If Ohio had a progressive tilt to it, or a strong progressive presence, those issues would have been closer (they still would have failed though). Also, look to NE Ohio and Cleveland. Long the progressive bastion in Ohio, they have had numerous chances to nominate a progressive for Congress in Nina Turner and she has lost both times to Shantel, a more pragmatic democrat. If Ohio had a chance to elect a progressive on a statewide ballot, you would have pockets like that district electing such candidates. They are not. 

1 minute ago, ryanlammi said:

Every single year Republicans pretend that if we nominate a moderate, that they have a chance. Every year that moderate loses by 6+ points.

 

Nan Whaley was pretty darn progressive. 

 

Until voter turnout changes, you could run AOC or Bernie Sanders and it won't matter. We've had very progressive local candidates, and turnout doesn't seem to fluctuate with them

Just now, YABO713 said:

 

Nan Whaley was pretty darn progressive. 

 

Until voter turnout changes, you could run AOC or Bernie Sanders and it won't matter. We've had very progressive local candidates, and turnout doesn't seem to fluctuate with them

 

lol progressive does not have to mean AOC or Bernie Sanders. Both of them would get crushed in Ohio.

 

It can mean John Fetterman.

At this point I'm waiting for the rising sea levels and wildfires to drive up the population enough to overcome the poor city turnout and flip the state blue. That anyone would vote for JD Vance just blows my mind...

8 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

A progressive will never win in Ohio. To piggyback on @Boomerang_Brian, Ryan ran about as well as a Democrat can in Ohio at this point. Ohio is not a purple state and Sherrod Brown is a relic of Ohio's past status as a bellwether state. If Dems want to win in Ohio they need to run the campaign Ryan ran. Most races they will still lose, but there will be years where the Dems have headwinds and will pull off a victory when they have the right candidate like Ryan and a weak GOP candidate in a favorable Dem year. This was not that year. 

 

History has shown how progressives underperform in Ohio. Of course you could point to the Gov race and contract Whaley vs Ryan, but I know the power of the Dewine name clouds that some. But look at other items. Take Issue 1 & 2. Both passed overwhelmingly which means a large portion of voters for Ryan and Whaley voted Yes. While Whaley may have supported those issues, many of the true progressives would not have been in favor of them. If Ohio had a progressive tilt to it, or a strong progressive presence, those issues would have been closer (they still would have failed though). Also, look to NE Ohio and Cleveland. Long the progressive bastion in Ohio, they have had numerous chances to nominate a progressive for Congress in Nina Turner and she has lost both times to Shantel, a more pragmatic democrat. If Ohio had a chance to elect a progressive on a statewide ballot, you would have pockets like that district electing such candidates. They are not. 

 

And this is why the report about how Ohio would've lost population and jobs the past 2 decades if not for Columbus will continue to be true. A state that is held back by regressive policy and rejects basic good practices to attract people and business- which is all Republicans will ever provide (when they bother to offer plans at all)- will never be more than its backward reputation.  Republican voters continuously vote for stagnation and irrelevance. 

Edited November 9, 20222 yr by jonoh81

11 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

 

Mandel would have lost to Tim Ryan. Renacci probably would have too. J.D. Vance is a better candidate than either of them and if he weren't such a disingenuous ass, he would have won by a larger margin.

You are right. But Dolan would have beat Ryan if he were the nominee (yes I was a Dolan supporter). What this is saying, and I think you saw this play out nationally last night is that voters do not want candidates on the extremes. Ryan was competitive in a conservative leaning state because he did not run as an extremist.  The candidates who lost ran as extremists, or allowed themselves to fly too close to Donald Trump's sun that they morphed into a junior version of him. This may have played well in 2016 but not anymore nationally. People are turned off by the rhetoric and you see it on both sides. It is why the Dems lost VA gov last year and why the GOP could not pick up seats in AZ, PA, or likely GA. 

 

As much as people complain about gridlock, people actually like it because the status quo is often better than wild swings in one direction or another. 

And Citizens United needs to get overturned tout de suite.

Just now, Ineffable_Matt said:

At this point I'm waiting for the rising sea levels and wildfires to drive up the population enough to overcome the poor city turnout and flip the state blue. That anyone would vote for JD Vance just blows my mind...

 

Racist- check.

Nationalist- check.

Morally bankrupt- check.

Zero plans to address any domestic issues- check. 

 

He's the perfect Republican candidate. 

2 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

You are right. But Dolan would have beat Ryan if he were the nominee (yes I was a Dolan supporter). What this is saying, and I think you saw this play out nationally last night is that voters do not want candidates on the extremes. Ryan was competitive in a conservative leaning state because he did not run as an extremist.  The candidates who lost ran as extremists, or allowed themselves to fly too close to Donald Trump's sun that they morphed into a junior version of him. This may have played well in 2016 but not anymore nationally. People are turned off by the rhetoric and you see it on both sides. It is why the Dems lost VA gov last year and why the GOP could not pick up seats in AZ, PA, or likely GA. 

 

As much as people complain about gridlock, people actually like it because the status quo is often better than wild swings in one direction or another. 

 

Pure projection. Plenty of people want real change with real solutions, but they're pretty much entirely on the Left these days. 

1 minute ago, jonoh81 said:

 

And this is why the report about Ohio would've lost population and jobs the past 2 decades if not for Columbus will continue to be true. A state that is held back by regressive policy and rejects basic good practices to attract people and business- which is all Republicans will ever provide (when they bother to offer plans at all)- will never be more than its backward reputation.  Republican voters continuously vote for stagnation and irrelevance. 

Columbus and Cincinnati both grew yes, but there is much more to that than Columbus or even Cincinnati's policies. Geography played a big role in it too. you cite state policies, but if you look at the areas of Ohio that have done the worst, you go to Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron/canton. Traditionally, these were liberal/democratic strongholds.  Columbus and Cincinnati were much more moderate and even conservative for many years. So, many of these "progressive" policies in Ohio were being promoted for decades in the cities that were failing and doing the worst. 

 

Now, while it would be easy to pick on progressives for their failed policies over the last 50 years, you cant stem Ohio's population loss solely on those and the true picture is actually a lot more complicated than that. Youngstown, Cleveland, Detroit, etc would have had a population exodus regardless of who was in charge (it may have been less with better policies in place, but still would have happened). There were many other factors at play that caused NE Ohio to lose out on population and Columbus and even Cincinnati to fare better than politics. Politics have exacerbated this trend but was not the driving factor. 

Republican voters:

4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Pure projection. Plenty of people want real change with real solutions, but they're pretty much entirely on the Left these days. 

There are plenty of people on both sides that want change, but they do not want to be inconvenienced by it to make it happen. That is why when push comes to shove, people will pick stasis over change. Plus, when you have 1/2 the electorate in the Blue column and the other 1/2 in the red (give or take) radical change is not healthy because it will just cause the pendulum to swing back harder the other way. I think it is what you have seen between 2010-2020 and after last night as much as people may not be happy about the situation, they want moderation not far right or far left candidates.

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

 

 

 

 

I think this meme just reflects the national problem that Democrats have. A lot of young people are very liberal and just won't get excited for a candidate like Tim Ryan. But a lot of the base is also fairly moderate and shies away from candidates like AOC. The Democrats are lucky that they're only halfway dysfunctional right now while the Republican party (most of it) is circling the drain.

 

Ryan hammering blue-collar jobs wouldn't get them excited. What they don't get is that for low-medium-skill blue-collar jobs not to suck (bad work times, high turnover, no AC, bonkers co-workers, bad safety, disrespect) there need to be like 7 openings for each person -- not just two like there are now. So these voters have struggled to get the white-collar jobs they want and here comes a Democrat shoving even more warehouses and steel mills at them. What Ryan was doing with the blue-collar stuff was right and necessary but not everyone can see that. And even if more warehouses and steel mills mean some more white-collar jobs, companies are so bottom-heavy these days people don't see it. Especially if those white-collar jobs are all elsewhere on the coasts.

1 hour ago, Ineffable_Matt said:

At this point I'm waiting for the rising sea levels and wildfires to drive up the population enough to overcome the poor city turnout and flip the state blue. That anyone would vote for JD Vance just blows my mind...

 

 

farmers gonna farm. ryan did not connect with rurals. j.d. is one with them. in their minds i guess.

 

aren't mid-terms always poor turnouts? i did read young voters showed up more than expected, so that is good if true.

15 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

farmers gonna farm. ryan did not connect with rurals. j.d. is one with them. in their minds i guess.

 

aren't mid-terms always poor turnouts? i did read young voters showed up more than expected, so that is good if true.

Turnout in Cuyahoga County was 10 points below 2018.

Ohio, I just can't understand my once beloved state. I moved to Chicago in 2002 and Ohio was a somewhat competitive state politically at that time. My friends here in Illinois ask me often, is Ohio still in the Midwest or has it become a Confederate state. I can only tell them that obviously it has become the headquarters of Trumpism. With all the large urban centers, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron/Canton, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown and several more, how can Ohio still be dominated by the rural areas. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and here in Illinois we crushed deniers and Trump zombies.

24 minutes ago, vulcana said:

Ohio, I just can't understand my once beloved state. I moved to Chicago in 2002 and Ohio was a somewhat competitive state politically at that time. My friends here in Illinois ask me often, is Ohio still in the Midwest or has it become a Confederate state. I can only tell them that obviously it has become the headquarters of Trumpism. With all the large urban centers, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron/Canton, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown and several more, how can Ohio still be dominated by the rural areas. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and here in Illinois we crushed deniers and Trump zombies.

Ohio has the 7th largest population, the cities only make up about 3 million people out of about 12 million. That is a huge rural population and the people in the cities don’t seem to always get out and vote. I think some people focus on, well my city is democrat and I am fine with that. They ignore statewide, thinking it won’t have any affect on them. 

23 minutes ago, vulcana said:

Ohio, I just can't understand my once beloved state. I moved to Chicago in 2002 and Ohio was a somewhat competitive state politically at that time. My friends here in Illinois ask me often, is Ohio still in the Midwest or has it become a Confederate state. I can only tell them that obviously it has become the headquarters of Trumpism. With all the large urban centers, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron/Canton, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown and several more, how can Ohio still be dominated by the rural areas. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and here in Illinois we crushed deniers and Trump zombies.

 

What's pretty sad is that with their vast resources at their disposal, the Vance campaign concluded that the best strategy to win Ohio was for J.D. to lower his IQ by half and turn into Trump lite. 

I've watched all this from Toledo/Lucas County, and noticed a few important differences between the victorious Kaptur campaign (against a weak oppoinent) and the losing Ryan campaign:

 

(1) Kaptur's ads in Toledo consistently addressed African-American voters. They turned out for her in Lucas County. I don't recall seeing a Ryan ad that address Black voters. To suggest they didn't turn out for Ryan is disingenuous; he didn't address their concerns;

 

(2) Kaptur maintained a respectful distance from Biden and national Dems, but didn't reject or publicly criticize them like Ryan did. I think Ohio Dems don't really respect someone who disrespects the party like Ryan did. 

 

(3) Kaptur had an ad late that I think was extremely effective, two lines especially: "We stand for the national anthem; and those who say we defund the police, [with deadpan delivery], are ridiculous. To me Kaptur threaded the needle very astutely about her commitment to Democratic Party's blue collar values (like Sherrod Brown) while criticizing its extremes. Ryan didn't seem to be able to do this.

 

(4) Most importantly for Kaptur - she must be the hardest working politician in Ohio. Everyone in Toledo who supports her has met her, has a story about her, can point to something she has done. She is always in the news, and she has strong support among the Ohioans of East European descent because of her consistent work on Ukraine, the former Warsaw Pact countries. She almost never makes mistakes. I don't think Ryan had adequately prepared Ohio voters in general with a narrative about what he had accomplished. 

 

Im really disappointed that Vance won, but maybe he'll be horrible enough Dems can get rid of him in a cycle or two. 

14 minutes ago, VintageLife said:

Ohio has the 7th largest population, the cities only make up about 3 million people out of about 12 million. That is a huge rural population and the people in the cities don’t seem to always get out and vote. I think some people focus on, well my city is democrat and I am fine with that. They ignore statewide, thinking it won’t have any affect on them. 

 

Having a bazillion Hillsboros, Fostorias and Salems really adds up. These other states have them too but we have more. 

17 minutes ago, VintageLife said:

Ohio has the 7th largest population, the cities only make up about 3 million people out of about 12 million. That is a huge rural population and the people in the cities don’t seem to always get out and vote. I think some people focus on, well my city is democrat and I am fine with that. They ignore statewide, thinking it won’t have any affect on them. 

An anecdote about Toledo - early in the campaigns, I was heading to our local gay bar in Toledo for happy hour, and did a double take when I saw Nan Whaley leaving the bar with a local city councilman. I saw him later that evening at the same bar, and asked "What that Nan Whaley??!" He affirmed, and said he had brought her to the bar to seek signatures to get on the ballot, but among the older crowd there at that hour, no one would sign the petition, because they're all Republicans. Even the bar owner is famously Republican, they all claim because of economic issues and taxes.