If you want to discuss the Ohio Gubernatorial election in 2022, welcome. Keep it civil, please.

 

 

^Pretty good video. Heavy on the "toughness" vs. a message of balancing "toughness" with "business growth". I don't know much about her, and in Cleveland, one never hears anything about Dayton. Is she a good mayor? Will she be a good governor? Its pretty early to announce for an election that is 19 months away--perhaps she's trying to ward off any Democratic challengers by doing so?

13 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Its pretty early to announce for an election that is 19 months away--perhaps she's trying to ward off any Democratic challengers by doing so?

Maybe she's trying to beat Cranley out of the gates?

Dayton mayor to take another run for state's top spot

 

Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley announced she's running for the state's top elected position.

 

Whaley shared on social media Monday that she's entering the race for governor of Ohio in 2022.

 

Whaley tweeted: "If the Republican politicians who have been running Columbus for 30 years had answers to the challenges we face, we'd have heard them by now. Instead, they let extremists run wild while their corrupt friends get rich. I'm running for Governor because Ohio deserves better."

 

More below:

https://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/news/2021/04/19/dayton-mayor-taking-a-run-for-states-top-spot.html

 

11 hours ago, Dev said:

Maybe she's trying to beat Cranley out of the gates?

 

I'd argue she has better name recognition in all Ohio counties except three. On UO, Cranley's might be higher but it's negative.

20 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

I'd argue she has better name recognition in all Ohio counties except three. On UO, Cranley's might be higher but it's negative.

Yup, I don't doubt that at all.

On 2/15/2021 at 11:59 AM, ryanlammi said:

If you want to discuss the Ohio Gubernatorial election in 2022, welcome. Keep it civil, please.

 

When is Dr Amy throwing her hat in the ring? 😜

I think it's nice to hear her give her perspective of Ohio "Growing up in a small Indiana town, Ohio was the Big Time".

 

It's something negative lifelong Ohioans need to hear since the policies of Ohio for many years have made it regressive and backward. Less like Pennsylvania or New York, and more like Indiana.

48 minutes ago, metrocity said:

I think it's nice to hear her give her perspective of Ohio "Growing up in a small Indiana town, Ohio was the Big Time".

 

It's something negative lifelong Ohioans need to hear since the policies of Ohio for many years have made it regressive and backward. Less like Pennsylvania or New York, and more like Indiana.

She grew up in the Carmel area. it was more of a smaller Indiana town at that time for sure but I would not call it small farm town Indiana, still a growing Indy suburb at the time. I did find it fascinating that she still had to face a lot of anti-catholic discrimination early on at that time, but that was probably common throughout most of central Indiana. It has obviously changed as the area became more suburban. 

9 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

She grew up in the Carmel area. it was more of a smaller Indiana town at that time for sure but I would not call it small farm town Indiana, still a growing Indy suburb at the time. I did find it fascinating that she still had to face a lot of anti-catholic discrimination early on at that time, but that was probably common throughout most of central Indiana. It has obviously changed as the area became more suburban. 

 

No, she grew up in Mooresville which is without question a "small Indiana town" at that time.  It's just becoming an exurban Indianapolis satellite as of the late 2010s.

1 minute ago, ColDayMan said:

 

No, she grew up in Mooresville which is without question a "small Indiana town" at that time.  It's just becoming an exurban Indianapolis satellite as of the late 2010s.

I really have not read her press bio. I dont disagree with that. My recollection comes from converstaions I had with her years ago over drinks. She described her town as near Carmel or in Hamilton County I believe and I mentioned I had family in that area so that is probably where I was a bit confused. 

I can see her saying she grew up near Carmel, just like someone in, say, New Richmond saying they grew up near Hamilton.  It's all relative if you don't know Central Indiana or SW Ohio.  But yes, she grew up and went to high school in Mooresville. 

6 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

I can see her saying she grew up near Carmel, just like someone in, say, New Richmond saying they grew up near Hamilton.  It's all relative if you don't know Central Indiana or SW Ohio.  But yes, she grew up and went to high school in Mooresville. 

That does make more sense, she was telling me about her upbringing where there were klan rallies (or something of the sort) through her town that were meant to intimidate the Catholics in the area. there were not very many of them there at that time. She was commenting on how this went on to some extent even up to the late 70s early 80s. It has been about 15 years since Iast spoke to her so some of my recollection of the converstion is a bit hazy, but that was one thing that stood out.  

Scientology mind tricks

Can we please stop letting one guy derail every thread? It's so tiring. If UO doesn't have mute button, maybe we should look into having one.

 

Anyway, is Nan Whaley the only candidate to announce on the Dem side of things? I think she'd be great. As far as name recognition, she definitely is someone I knew while living in Columbus, especially at the time of the tornado and shootings in Dayton. I couldn't even name the mayor of Toledo or Akron, but I could Dayton!

 

I would also like to see Michael Coleman run for something, either senate of governor, but it seems like he might be done. But who knows!

1 hour ago, Zyrokai said:

Anyway, is Nan Whaley the only candidate to announce on the Dem side of things? I think she'd be great. As far as name recognition, she definitely is someone I knew while living in Columbus, especially at the time of the tornado and shootings in Dayton. I couldn't even name the mayor of Toledo or Akron, but I could Dayton!

 

I would also like to see Michael Coleman run for something, either senate of governor, but it seems like he might be done. But who knows!

 

I don't think anyone else has officially announced, but it's an open secret that John Cranley (Mayor of Cincinnati) is running for governor. Those are the only two names I've seen even floated.

 

DeWine is a tough candidate to defeat as it stands today. As long as he doesn't lose to a challenge from the right, he's got the complete support of Trump voters because the alternative is a Democrat, he has the complete support moderate Republicans because he is pretty moderate overall, and he has relatively high approval ratings from Democrats (considering the partisan divide in our country). I don't see a way anyone comes out on top of him in the general election. But I could be wrong.

^ I think Cranley is an interesting option as he positions himself up well. In one sense, especially over COVID, he was almost to the right of Dewine and championed a pro-business pro open mentality. He was seen dining out and openly championing going out but being safe. 

If Dewine survives a challenge from the right flank, Cranley could make things interesting. 

Plus the one thing about Cranley is that almost in every election he has run, he has a history of overperforming expectations. 

34 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

 

I don't think anyone else has officially announced, but it's an open secret that John Cranley (Mayor of Cincinnati) is running for governor. Those are the only two names I've seen even floated.

 

DeWine is a tough candidate to defeat as it stands today. As long as he doesn't lose to a challenge from the right, he's got the complete support of Trump voters because the alternative is a Democrat, he has the complete support moderate Republicans because he is pretty moderate overall, and he has relatively high approval ratings from Democrats (considering the partisan divide in our country). I don't see a way anyone comes out on top of him in the general election. But I could be wrong.

 

DeWine would crush Cranley like a paper cup.

9 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

 

DeWine would crush Cranley like a paper cup.

Dewine would certainly be the favorite and likely win, but Cranely would make it closer than expected in my opinion. 

 

Look at his history. He was a placeholder in 2000 and gave Chabot a run for his money. He twice surprised in the mayoral races, he came pretty close to the upset in 2006 Congressional race. He has a history of overperforming. 

Two Democrats to watch would be Tim Ryan, who is probably running for Senate (and would lose, I don't see how a Democrat can win that race in Ohio in 2022) and Bill O'Neill.   You need a labor oriented candidate who can't be labeled as a "progressive" and can work with the Republicans who will almost certainly maintain their lock on the legislature.    It's doable though.   Republicans haven't forgiven Dewine for his early restrictions and still see him as weak.

I just don't see a downstate urban mayor getting enough name recognition to win in the northeast counties.

Edited April 21, 20214 yr by E Rocc

Richard Cordray

Ed FitzGerald (lol)

Ted Strickland

 

The past several Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Ohio have been milquetoast forgettable centrists. And every year the Republicans on this board say Democrats need to elect a centrist so they can't be labeled a "progressive" and can win over Republican voters (this goes for gubernatorial and Senate candidate). Every single candidate will be labeled as a left wing lunatic progressive even if they nominated John Kasich himself (an actual proposal people on this board were suggesting for Biden's VP). Democrats need to lean into their beliefs, because it's what can actually win elections. Every year the Dems nominate some loser who can't win a race.

Despite where Nan is from formally, I imagine as a child in the 70's Indianapolis still looked small in comparision to Cincinnati or Cleveland. To this day driving into Cincinnati is way more impressive looking and feels like a way bigger city than Indy. Add to that she probably went to Kings Island, Sea World/Geauga Lake and/or Cedar Point. Maybe some of our awesome State Parks as well. 

 

I can see how a child from Indiana in the 1970's would think Ohio was "Big Time". And I think its cool that she still has that mindset that she thinks Ohio has the potential to be what she thought of it as a child. It's a refreshing thing to hear, instead of an old white dude just talking about bringing "good jobs" back to poor old, beaten down, rusted out Ohio.

2 hours ago, ryanlammi said:

Richard Cordray

Ed FitzGerald (lol)

Ted Strickland

 

The past several Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Ohio have been milquetoast forgettable centrists. And every year the Republicans on this board say Democrats need to elect a centrist so they can't be labeled a "progressive" and can win over Republican voters (this goes for gubernatorial and Senate candidate). Every single candidate will be labeled as a left wing lunatic progressive even if they nominated John Kasich himself (an actual proposal people on this board were suggesting for Biden's VP). Democrats need to lean into their beliefs, because it's what can actually win elections. Every year the Dems nominate some loser who can't win a race.

 

The main reason Strickland got in as a Dem the first time was because he had the key to Appalachia. No Democrat is going to get that in 2022 so why bother. Yes Appalachian cities might still have Dem mayors here and there but once you get out of the parts with 3-5 story buildings and walkable town centers the fun's over again. And even if someone builds some buzz in Portsmouth, Steubenville doesn't know who they are. You can probably get to Lima faster from both. Strickland was in a very unique position due to his age and being high-profile throughout the state for so long. Get the people in the cities to make sure and show up.

 

What's changed as opposed to the (now getting more distant) past? Lack of organized labor. And the rabbit ears don't even work in half or more of the area so that means satellite TV and constant flipping between Fox News, Pawn Stars and Storage Wars. Near-dead newspapers and IHeartRadio stations that are either Nu-Country or some mix of '70s/'80s rock.

33 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

What's changed as opposed to the (now getting more distant) past? Lack of organized labor. 

 

Stole my thunder. Plus many of those union Dems were DINO's anyhow. 

Former US Rep Jim Renacci has announced a primary challenge against Gov. DeWine

I might have to register as an R now just to vote for DeWine in the primary and the D in the general.

Renacci is totally going after the Trump voters.

 

IMHO, DeWine will hold the middle (center-right/never Trumpers), plus the Dems in this state who have no qualms about switching parties to vote for a moderate Republican they like (e.g. Kasich in the 2016 Ohio POTUS Primary).

 

DeWine probably wins re-election easily. Barring some disastrous scandal that erupts and badly tarnishes him, the same Dems who vote for him in the primary election likely won't be that motivated to GOTV for Whaley or Cranley in November.

14 hours ago, mu2010 said:

I might have to register as an R now just to vote for DeWine in the primary and the D in the general.

Ohio is an open primary state so you don't actually have to register with a party to receive their primary ballot. When you check in, they will ask which ballot you want.

1 minute ago, Dev said:

Ohio is an open primary state so you don't actually have to register with a party to receive their primary ballot. When you check in, they will ask which ballot you want.

 

Yep, that's what I meant. Doing that actually "changes your registration..." After that I'd show up as a registered Republican in the voter records until the next time I vote in a Democratic primary.

1 minute ago, mu2010 said:

 

Yep, that's what I meant. Doing that actually "changes your registration..." After that I'd show up as a registered Republican in the voter records until the next time I vote in a Democratic primary.

Yes, I should have mentioned that. You might get flooded with Republican flyers in the meantime, depending on how aggressive your local Republican party is.

Other than ignoring common sense, he'd make a great governor....

 

 

You can see the fan sucking the banner into the grille in pic 3.

Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley officially launches bid for Ohio governor

 

 

Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley is running for Ohio governor – officially. 

 

Cranley, 47, launched a gubernatorial bid Tuesday, setting up a Democratic primary with fellow Gen X mayor and friend Nan Whaley of Dayton. The battle of the Southwest Ohio mayors is on.

Cranley is Gen X? He sure acts and sounds like an aged 60+ Boomer to me.

 

In any case, with he and Whaley wasting time and money on a primary, DeWine is virtually guaranteed re-election. The Dems in this state can't afford such divisive shenanigans. They need to get behind a single candidate and run a virtually flawless campaign from the middle. Even then, DeWine would be extremely tough to beat.

 

FWIW, Whaley seems to be the better bet. She received some regional and national attention after the Oregon District Shooting, which elevated her profile.

 

Cranley is virtually unknown outside of the Cincy city limits. People in NE Ohio still think Jerry Springer is Mayor down there.

If they are the only two major candidates on the ballot, I'll be interested to see how Dayton and Cincinnati both vote in the primary. I would guess Whaley would get something like 80-90% of the primary votes in Dayton, and maybe 30-40% of the Cincinnati votes. I doubt she would win Cincinnati, but a lot of people down here don't like Cranley, and he isn't going to get the votes from the Republicans he's accustomed to getting in city elections here.

^^I'd agree that DeWine easily wins if he makes it on the Republican ticket, but is he guaranteed the Republican nomination? 

6 minutes ago, ink said:

^^I'd agree that DeWine easily wins if he makes it on the Republican ticket, but is he guaranteed the Republican nomination? 

 

I would say it all depends on 1) if he runs and 2) if the First Energy thing tanks him.

 

I think if the First Energy thing doesn't stop him, and he runs, he'll win the nomination.

It'll all depend on how the primary goes. Will it be a friendly contest? Or will it get dirty? If it gets dirty they are dooming themselves. If it stays clean and DeWine is dealing with his own dirty primary then Nan might have the slimmest of chances against him in the general.

Seniors love DeWine, even the ones that turned on Trump. The Republican party does not function without them.

17 minutes ago, NEOBuckeye said:

Cranley is Gen X? He sure acts and sounds like an aged 60+ Boomer to me.

 

In any case, with he and Whaley wasting time and money on a primary, DeWine is virtually guaranteed re-election. The Dems in this state can't afford such divisive shenanigans. They need to get behind a single candidate and run a virtually flawless campaign from the middle. Even then, DeWine would be extremely tough to beat.

 

FWIW, Whaley seems to be the better bet. She received some regional and national attention after the Oregon District Shooting, which elevated her profile.

 

Cranley is virtually unknown outside of the Cincy city limits. People in NE Ohio still think Jerry Springer is Mayor down there.

Cranley has a good money connection up in NE Ohio. He went to college up there and has a lot of connections still. IMO he will be able to raise more money than Whaley. Cranley is a bit more moderate than Whaley and may play better in the general.  However, to defeat Dewine, it all depends where Ohio is next year with the pandemic and if a lot of GOP voters who would otherwise turn out for him stay home. 

1 hour ago, JaceTheAce41 said:

I was surprised to see Aftab win so handily. 

Cranley has a snowball's chance to win the nomination for OH governor. Being from Cincinnati alone isn't helping as the rest of the state basically ignores Cincy. He's also just not very likeable.

 

Cranley has a good relationship with the broader Democratic establishment and goes out of his way to nurture those relationships (I believe he hosted Hilary Clinton at one point for a fundraiser).  One example I'm positive of is that when he was Mayor, Rahm Emanuel called him for advice on racial unrest in Chicago over aggressive policing and not Mallory who IMO would have been the better choice.   Emanuel even though he's discredited as a public official still has a lot of influence in the broader DNC.

 

That's my concern - he's in line with establishment democratic politics and their strategy for reddish states like Ohio...  They will prop him up.

^I think people from out of town don't realize how much of a raging DINO he is and he really schmoozes them.

1 hour ago, JaceTheAce41 said:

Being from Cincinnati alone isn't helping as the rest of the state basically ignores Cincy.

Pure nonsense. Im certain 99% of Cincinnatians couldnt name a single Cleveland or Columbus city politician. So the ignoring part is definitely mutual lol. Also isn’t the likely nominee for the democrats Dayton’s mayor??

19 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

^I think people from out of town don't realize how much of a raging DINO he is and he really schmoozes them.

 

I only know about it from lurking on UO Cincy posts. I remember reading on here about how awful he was (and I assume continues to be) with the streetcar.

 

But he probably wouldn't be a terrible choice for gubernatorial nominee in Ohio tbh. Strictly speaking from a "chances to win" perspective.

Edited November 4, 20213 yr by mu2010

Columbus media will jump on him pretty quickly if he does anything super DINO-ish like some of his tweets. 

2 hours ago, mu2010 said:

 

I only know about it from lurking on UO Cincy posts. I remember reading on here about how awful he was (and I assume continues to be) with the streetcar.

 

But he probably wouldn't be a terrible choice for gubernatorial nominee in Ohio tbh. Strictly speaking from a "chances to win" perspective.

 

He's terrible, he'll depress turnout of the base and the mythical moderate conservative doesn't really exist these days (most have already left the GOP).   All the dedicated conservatives  will choose a republican over a watered down dem version of the same thing.   Swing Voters aren't as big a factor as they used to be given the levels of polarization and the nationalization of state politics (city level is a different story but at state level this has happened).

Edited November 4, 20213 yr by neilworms

2 hours ago, mu2010 said:

 

I only know about it from lurking on UO Cincy posts. I remember reading on here about how awful he was (and I assume continues to be) with the streetcar.

 

But he probably wouldn't be a terrible choice for gubernatorial nominee in Ohio tbh. Strictly speaking from a "chances to win" perspective.

 

1 minute ago, neilworms said:

 

He's terrible, he'll depress turnout of the base and the mythical moderate conservative doesn't really exist these days (most have already left the GOP).   All the dedicated conservatives  will choose a republican over a watered down dem version of the same thing.   Swing Voters aren't as big a factor as they used to be given the levels of polarization and the nationalization of state politics (city level is a different story but at state level this has happened).

I completely agree with Neil - if Cranley is the nominee it would be an unmitigated disaster for the Dems. He would have very little chance of winning, for all the reasons listed above. Nan Whaley presents a much more obvious contrast with the Republican Party and therefore would be more likely to convince people to vote. 

 

The "swing voters" in Ohio couldn't even be convinced to vote for Biden over Trump. That tells you everything you need to know. I don't see a Democrat winning regardless of who is nominated. Barring some enormous scandal beyond anything we've seen, it'll be the republican nominee who wins in 2022. But I guess this is a conversation for the Gubernatorial election thread.