Posted April 19, 20214 yr I think one thread for all Ohio Congressional Delegation news and discussion is appropriate. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
April 19, 20214 yr Author Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers to leave Congress next month https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/ohio-rep-steve-stivers-leave-congress-next-month-n1264483 WASHINGTON — Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, announced Monday that he is stepping down next month to lead his state's Chamber of Commerce, opening up another vacancy in the narrowly divided House. Stivers, who’s serving his sixth term in Congress, said he will step down May 16 to take the job as president and CEO of the chamber. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
April 19, 20214 yr 44 minutes ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers to leave Congress next month https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/ohio-rep-steve-stivers-leave-congress-next-month-n1264483 WASHINGTON — Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, announced Monday that he is stepping down next month to lead his state's Chamber of Commerce, opening up another vacancy in the narrowly divided House. Stivers, who’s serving his sixth term in Congress, said he will step down May 16 to take the job as president and CEO of the chamber. Hmmmm... a six-term GOP Congressman stepping down mid-term? I assume there is a "real" story here besides he got a job somewhere....
April 19, 20214 yr 52 minutes ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers to leave Congress next month https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/ohio-rep-steve-stivers-leave-congress-next-month-n1264483 WASHINGTON — Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, announced Monday that he is stepping down next month to lead his state's Chamber of Commerce, opening up another vacancy in the narrowly divided House. Stivers, who’s serving his sixth term in Congress, said he will step down May 16 to take the job as president and CEO of the chamber. In Central Ohio, we would say Stivers "pulled a Tiberi" (Pat not Dom). Tiberi resigned from Congress in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. Stivers lives in highly democratic Upper Arlington (a wealthy inner city suburb located just west of OSU). His 15th congressional district is gerrymandered to include highly republican areas south of Columbus/Franklin County, but includes a narrow arm that reaches into Franklin County to include his home in Upper Arlington(!) With Strivers' district getting redrawn for the 2022, he might have seen a preview of what his new district would look like - likely a more competitive district with more democratic voters if it includes more of Columbus and Franklin County - and said "I need to pull a Tiberi".
April 19, 20214 yr Author 1 hour ago, Columbo said: In Central Ohio, we would say Stivers "pulled a Tiberi" (Pat not Dom). Tiberi resigned from Congress in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. Stivers lives in highly democratic Upper Arlington (a wealthy inner city suburb located just west of OSU). His 15th congressional district is gerrymandered to include highly republican areas south of Columbus/Franklin County, but includes a narrow arm that reaches into Franklin County to include his home in Upper Arlington(!) With Strivers' district getting redrawn for the 2022, he might have seen a preview of what his new district would look like - likely a more competitive district with more democratic voters if it includes more of Columbus and Franklin County - and said "I need to pull a Tiberi". So, he may not have asked for Athens, but he presumably did ask for his home address to be included in his district? Thanks for the additional details. Our gerrymandering reform bill changes can’t get here fast enough. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
April 19, 20214 yr Candidates to replace Stivers are already lining up on both the Republican and Democratic sides: https://www.thisweeknews.com/story/news/2021/04/19/steve-stivers-leave-congress-who-wants-his-seat/7284422002/
April 19, 20214 yr Upper Arlington was pretty Republican 30 years ago. But when the Rs dropped the Connecticuts for the Harley Guys it flipped.
June 5, 20214 yr 12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers Candidates to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington in the 15th Congressional District, who started a new job this week as president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Stivers had represented the district, which spans from Upper Arlington to Athens to McConnelsville, since 2011. The primary is set for Aug. 3, and the general election will be held Nov. 2. The Republican side of the coin will be crowded, with 12 candidates hoping to secure the nomination. They are: John Adams, owner of Green Valley Chemicals Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources Eric M. Clark, LPN at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base Thad Cooperrider, former Perry County Commissioner Ruth Edmonds, former church relations director at the Center for Christian Virtue Ron Hood, former state representative for the 78th District Thomas Hwang, owner of The Virtues Golf Club State Sen. Stephanie Kunze of Hilliard State Rep. Jeff LaRe of Violet Township State Sen. Bob Peterson of Washington Courthouse State Rep. Brian Stewart of Ashville Omar Tarazi, attorney and Hilliard City Council member Meanwhile, two Democrats will compete in the August primary: Greg Betts State Rep. Allison Russo of Upper Arlington MORE: https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/17/ohio-15th-congressional-district-republicans-democrats-file-special-election/5127191001/
June 5, 20214 yr ^ Out of all those 14 candidates to replace Stivers, the only one I've heard of is State Sen. Stephanie Kunze of Hilliard. And that's only because Kunze and her opponent Crystal Lett were all over the airwaves in the November 2020 election for the State Senate. Incumbent Kunze(R) defeated Lett(D) in the 2020 general election for State Senate by a mere 116 votes out of a total 211,990 votes cast(!) Earlier this week, Stivers endorsed State Rep. Jeff LaRe, R-Violet Township, to replace him in the 15th Congressional District. Violet Township is located in Fairfield County, which is southeast of Columbus/Franklin County. Also in the linked article below about Stivers endorsement, it was mentioned that another republican, Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources, was campaigning across the 15th district this week with Donald Trump's former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski — a clear sign that he's hoping to win over Trump's supporters: https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2021/06/02/steve-stivers-endorses-jeff-lare-replace-him-congress-15th-district/7511217002/
June 5, 20214 yr Author I don’t know who Brian Stewart is, but he’s out of the Ohio 15th race: When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 11, 20214 yr Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Mike Carey in the special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District, giving Carey an edge in a contentious GOP primary. Carey, vice president of government affairs at coal mining company American Consolidated Natural Resources, is running against 10 other Republicans for the seat vacated by former U.S. Rep. Steve Stivers. Carey met with Trump on Monday at Trump Tower in New York, according to a campaign spokesman. The endorsement comes after Carey stumped with former Trump adviser and campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Trump's opinion will likely carry significant weight in the 15th, which he won by 14 points in the 2020 election. It also sets up a proxy war in the district over which direction the GOP wants to take itself going forward — toward the former president or away from him. Stivers endorsed State Rep. Jeff LaRe of Violet Township last week but said his decision wasn't about supporting or opposing Trump. MORE: https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2021/06/08/trump-endorses-mike-carey-ohio-15th-congressional-district-race/7611520002/
August 2, 20213 yr https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2021/07/07/ohio-15th-congressional-district-special-election-primary-voter-guide/7779013002/ The special primary run-off election in Ohio's 15th congressional district to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers - who left the U.S. House to take a job as president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce - is tomorrow. Early voting, both by mail and in-person, started July 7 and goes through Monday. The general election will be held Nov. 2. Since this is a heavily republican district, the winner on the republican side of tomorrow's primary vote is most likely to be the next U.S. Rep. for the OH-15, and would serve through 2022. The 2022 incumbent would also face redrawn district boundaries. Here are the top two R's in the primary: -- State Rep. Jeff LaRe from Fairfield County got Steve Stivers' endorsement and would be considered the most mainstream Republican in the race. -- Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at coal mining company American Consolidated Natural Resources got Donald Trump's endorsement and is the super-Trumper of the race. Many of the other R's are also Trumpers, but Carey got an actual endorsement and got Trump to say "I don't know those other guys, I know Carey". Carey's title of "vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources" is also a pretty good whitewash. He has been the long-time lobbyist for Murray Energy, who after declaring bankruptcy, reformed as American Consolidated Natural Resources. In addition to many pro-LaRe and pro-Carey TV ads in the district, there have been an anti-Carey TV ad pointing out his lobbying job by an outside conservative group. An interesting "third way" conservative candidate is Thomas Hwang, who has been running some TV ads along with LaRe and Carey. Hwang is listed as "owner of The Virtues Golf Club", which is the former Longaberger Golf Club in northern Muskingum County (and interestingly, not located within the OH-15 district). In the Dispatch's voters guide, Hwang is listed as being from Waverly, the county seat of Pike County (and also not located within the OH-15 district). Kind of makes you wonder if Thomas Hwang actually lives in the OH-15 district(!) But despite Hwang's TV ads, his very interesting resume and answers in the Dispatch's voters guide, and his solid conservative philosophies - he would be a long shot to beat LaRe and Carey in tomorrow's Republican primary for the OH-15.
August 4, 20213 yr Primary winners for Ohio's 15th congressional district decided Trump-endorsed coal lobbyist Mike Carey won the crowded 11-person Republican primary. While State Rep. Allison Russo easily won the two-person Democratic primary. So the OH-15 will probably get a Trump-endorsed coal lobbyist to finish out the remainder of Stivers term. The biggest surprise was that Mike Carey topped the Stivers-endorsed candidate Jeff LaRe 37% to 13%. But then the primary does distill those voting down to its most extreme version. Still, that's a big margin for Carey over LaRe.
August 13, 20213 yr Author Redistricting Commission public hearing info: https://mcusercontent.com/83058efadac7fd9d118aa89ee/files/5cf2973d-b8d2-2ef6-1558-1dc81ffdc229/2021_Ohio_Redistricting_Commission_regional_hearing_schedule.pdf When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
August 18, 20213 yr 1 hour ago, dastler said: Why aren't any of those hearings in the dense cities? Check the link at the top of that post for a full list of cities https://mcusercontent.com/83058efadac7fd9d118aa89ee/files/5cf2973d-b8d2-2ef6-1558-1dc81ffdc229/2021_Ohio_Redistricting_Commission_regional_hearing_schedule.pdf
August 18, 20213 yr The obvious one that is missing is Columbus. They claim that's because there'll be hearings at the statehouse that people can attend.
August 23, 20213 yr Author On 8/13/2021 at 12:53 PM, Boomerang_Brian said: Redistricting Commission public hearing info: https://mcusercontent.com/83058efadac7fd9d118aa89ee/files/5cf2973d-b8d2-2ef6-1558-1dc81ffdc229/2021_Ohio_Redistricting_Commission_regional_hearing_schedule.pdf Oh yeah, the Cleveland one is tomorrow morning at 9:30 at CSU. I hope someone can make it. If there’s a Zoom option, I’m not seeing it. I think most of the sessions are this week. Akron is Friday. So far this process is not going as well as we deserve. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
August 23, 20213 yr Author Oh, I found the livestream link: https://ohiochannel.org/collections/ohio-redistricting-commission Here’s the more detailed page on the commission meetings: https://redistricting.ohio.gov/meetings On 8/13/2021 at 12:53 PM, Boomerang_Brian said: Redistricting Commission public hearing info: https://mcusercontent.com/83058efadac7fd9d118aa89ee/files/5cf2973d-b8d2-2ef6-1558-1dc81ffdc229/2021_Ohio_Redistricting_Commission_regional_hearing_schedule.pdf 1 hour ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Oh yeah, the Cleveland one is tomorrow morning at 9:30 at CSU. I hope someone can make it. If there’s a Zoom option, I’m not seeing it. I think most of the sessions are this week. Akron is Friday. So far this process is not going as well as we deserve. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
August 23, 20213 yr Author Looks like some people showed up. Good to see: When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
September 17, 20213 yr Author GOP Rep. [Anthony] Gonzalez, who voted to impeach Trump, announces retirement, citing ‘toxic dynamics inside our own party' https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/16/gop-rep-gonzalez-who-voted-impeach-trump-announces-retirement-citing-toxic-dynamics-inside-our-own-party/ Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R-Ohio) on Thursday announced he will not seek reelection in 2022, citing a desire to “build a fuller family life” as well as “the toxic dynamics inside our own party.” Gonzalez, who has two children, was one of 10 Republicans to vote to impeach former president Donald Trump, a decision that brought Trump’s wrath and would have likely thrust him in a tumultuous primary next year against a pro-Trump candidate. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
September 17, 20213 yr Pretty crazy that we've got GOP congresspeople deciding to retire because they fear for their safety because of their own party.
November 3, 20213 yr On 8/3/2021 at 10:24 PM, Columbo said: Primary winners for Ohio's 15th congressional district decided Trump-endorsed coal lobbyist Mike Carey won the crowded 11-person Republican primary. While State Rep. Allison Russo easily won the two-person Democratic primary. So the OH-15 will probably get a Trump-endorsed coal lobbyist to finish out the remainder of Stivers term. The biggest surprise was that Mike Carey topped the Stivers-endorsed candidate Jeff LaRe 37% to 13%. But then the primary does distill those voting down to its most extreme version. Still, that's a big margin for Carey over LaRe. https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/11/02/ohio-15th-congressional-district-republican-mike-carey-democrat-allison-russo/8537008002/ Republican Mike Carey won the special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District on Tuesday. Carey led Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo with 58.3% of the roughly 160,000 votes cast, according to unofficial results. He will take office immediately and replaces former Republican Rep. Steve Stivers, who left Congress in May to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.
January 18, 20223 yr Author Emilia Sykes is running for Congress in whatever district Akron finally lands in. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
May 5, 20223 yr Following Tuesday night's primary, I think we're in a realistic position where Democrats lose no seats and Republicans lose one in the delegation. There are currently 4 Democrats and 12 Republicans. In November, two Democratic seats are complete shoe-ins. District 11 in Cuyahoga will be Shontel Brown. District 3 in Columbus will be Joyce Beatty. Then there are two pretty swingy districts that I expect to go blue. The 9th is an R+6 district where Marcy Kaptur is the incumbent. Her opponent J.R. Majewski attended the Jan 6 riot, has posted QAnon-related hashtags, and his big claim to fame is painting an enormous Trump flag on his lawn. This is the kind of Republican that loses a +6 district, and Kaptur is an incumbent. Even in a wave year, this is district is a really, really hard pickup for Republicans with him as the candidate. Next, the new 13th district (which is all of Summit County and a big chunk of Stark including Canton) is another good target for Democrats. Emilia Sykes is running against the very Trumpy Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. While she's not crazy in the same way J.R. Majewski is, she also doesn't have a +6 advantage. She's Trumpy enough to turn a lot of moderates off. So, it's all gonna come down to turnout for this one. If Akron turns out, Sykes will win. Finally, the 1st district I expect to stay Republican. It's a D+3, but you've got the fairly moderate and pretty popular Chabot defending territory. But even in a wave year, I'd give him a more than 10% chance of losing given the accelerating demographic changes in Cincinnati. None of the other races should really be competitive, but if you look at the above, I actually don't expect Democrats to lose seats, even in a wave year. J.R. Majewski is really what makes the difference. It's like he was designed in a lab.
May 6, 20223 yr Author Interesting comparison of Brown / Turner races in 2020 and 2021. My main critique of Brown is the collapse of D voters in Cuyahoga county under her leadership. Turner got beaten badly by Brown twice, so clearly she is not a person that would be able to fix that problem. Some people need to realize that a person has to be able to win elections to have any chance of being effective. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
May 6, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Interesting comparison of Brown / Turner races in 2020 and 2021. My main critique of Brown is the collapse of D voters in Cuyahoga county under her leadership. Turner got beaten badly by Brown twice, so clearly she is not a person that would be able to fix that problem. Some people need to realize that a person has to be able to win elections to have any chance of being effective. FWIW, turnout was even worse in Franklin County than Cuyahoga.
May 6, 20223 yr On 5/5/2022 at 9:27 AM, LlamaLawyer said: Following Tuesday night's primary, I think we're in a realistic position where Democrats lose no seats and Republicans lose one in the delegation. There are currently 4 Democrats and 12 Republicans. In November, two Democratic seats are complete shoe-ins. District 11 in Cuyahoga will be Shontel Brown. District 3 in Columbus will be Joyce Beatty. Then there are two pretty swingy districts that I expect to go blue. The 9th is an R+6 district where Marcy Kaptur is the incumbent. Her opponent J.R. Majewski attended the Jan 6 riot, has posted QAnon-related hashtags, and his big claim to fame is painting an enormous Trump flag on his lawn. This is the kind of Republican that loses a +6 district, and Kaptur is an incumbent. Even in a wave year, this is district is a really, really hard pickup for Republicans with him as the candidate. Next, the new 13th district (which is all of Summit County and a big chunk of Stark including Canton) is another good target for Democrats. Emilia Sykes is running against the very Trumpy Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. While she's not crazy in the same way J.R. Majewski is, she also doesn't have a +6 advantage. She's Trumpy enough to turn a lot of moderates off. So, it's all gonna come down to turnout for this one. If Akron turns out, Sykes will win. Finally, the 1st district I expect to stay Republican. It's a D+3, but you've got the fairly moderate and pretty popular Chabot defending territory. But even in a wave year, I'd give him a more than 10% chance of losing given the accelerating demographic changes in Cincinnati. None of the other races should really be competitive, but if you look at the above, I actually don't expect Democrats to lose seats, even in a wave year. J.R. Majewski is really what makes the difference. It's like he was designed in a lab. I think the Republicans really got screwed by the Majewski win. ALthough, stranger things have happened. and the district is a bit different than last time. I think Gesiotto will be a tough campaign and certainly the GOP could have nominated a better candidate, but with the way Stark County and some of those counties have been trending lately, a Trumpian populist has as strong of a shot as anyone. It is no longer the district that elected Anthony Gonzalez and has certainly become more populist. I think Gonzalez saw this a year or so ago and why he decided to get out while the getting was good. In the first, Chabot will win this year and retain his seat. At some point in the next 10 years the seat will go blue, but this is not the year.
May 6, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said: I think the Republicans really got screwed by the Majewski win. ALthough, stranger things have happened. and the district is a bit different than last time. I think Gesiotto will be a tough campaign and certainly the GOP could have nominated a better candidate, but with the way Stark County and some of those counties have been trending lately, a Trumpian populist has as strong of a shot as anyone. It is no longer the district that elected Anthony Gonzalez and has certainly become more populist. I think Gonzalez saw this a year or so ago and why he decided to get out while the getting was good. In the first, Chabot will win this year and retain his seat. At some point in the next 10 years the seat will go blue, but this is not the year. Gonzales's district was R+19. This one has as much from the old 11th and from the old 13th (both D districts) as it does from Gonzales. It contains all of Summit County, which is like D+9. The only reason it's even competitive is the carefully selected parts of Stark that got thrown in, which collectively make up about 1/4 of the district.
May 6, 20223 yr @LlamaLawyerI agree with your assessment. Just to add a couple of things. Ohio 13th - I agree that Akron turnout will by key and Sykes is the best candidate to bring that vote out. The Sykes name is well known. On a more macro level, the fact Sykes is from Summit County and Gesiott-Gilbert is from Stark County plays into the favor of Dems. Summit County, since it has been split three ways for the past 20-something years, has only been represented in the U.S. House by Betty Sutton (2006-2012), and her district was only the southwest portion of the county. So, it's really been 22 years since Summit County had a representative who would cover most of the county. That is something she/Dems should drill home, and I expect money will be pumped into this race. IMO, this will remain a slight Dem lean district for however long it stays, but a moderate GOP candidate from Summit County could make this one a true toss-up. FWIW, Biden won this district by about 12,000 votes in 2020 and Sherrod Brown won it by +20 (around 50,000) in 2018. Ohio 9th - Again, I agree. While this one based off the 2020 Trump map was +3 GOP (Trump beat Biden by 11,000 votes districtwide), based on the 2018 Sherrod Brown map, it was +19 Dem (Brown beat Renacci by more than 45,000 votes). Kaptur is closer to Brown than what Majewski is to Trump. Kaptur should be able to motivate her base and due to her history, especially on Lake Erie issues, will play well in Ottawa, Sandusky and Erie counties. Once Kaptur retires, this one very well could flip, but it's one that Kaptur can hold onto this year. Ohio 1st - While I think Chabot holds on, I also agree that this one will flip at some point. Though, I would argue that Dems have a better shot at flipping this one this year and making it a 10-5 map, than the GOP has in the 9th or 13th. With Chabot being a moderate and a pretty popular incumbent, he probably holds onto what is a light blue district and one that has continued to shift more blue in recent years (unlike the 9th or 13th that have been shifting from solid blue to light blue (13th) to slight red (9th). Edited May 6, 20223 yr by Rando Sinclair
May 20, 20223 yr https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/politics/kfile-jr-majewski-secession-2020-election/index.html Y'know, I kinda think Marcy Kaptur is gonna win her district.
September 21, 20222 yr Author Nothing but the best candidates from today’s GOP When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
January 18, 20241 yr Author Ugh. Please just GO AWAY Kucinich. What a clown. He couldn’t even bother to get his paperwork submitted in time for the primary, so he’s running as an independent. https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/01/dennis-kucinich-files-fec-paperwork-to-run-for-congress-against-republican-max-miller.html?outputType=amp “Former Democratic Cleveland mayor, congressman and longshot presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich filed paperwork at the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday that indicates he’s running as an independent for the congressional seat held by Rocky River Republican Rep. Max Miller. Kucinich has previously run for office as a Democrat. He missed the December deadline to run in the Democratic primary for the seat that encompasses western and southern Cuyahoga County, Medina and Wayne counties, and northern Holmes County, but the filing deadline for independents to seek the seat isn’t until March.” When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
January 18, 20241 yr 16 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Ugh. Please just GO AWAY Kucinich. What a clown. He couldn’t even bother to get his paperwork submitted in time for the primary, so he’s running as an independent. https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/01/dennis-kucinich-files-fec-paperwork-to-run-for-congress-against-republican-max-miller.html?outputType=amp “Former Democratic Cleveland mayor, congressman and longshot presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich filed paperwork at the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday that indicates he’s running as an independent for the congressional seat held by Rocky River Republican Rep. Max Miller. Kucinich has previously run for office as a Democrat. He missed the December deadline to run in the Democratic primary for the seat that encompasses western and southern Cuyahoga County, Medina and Wayne counties, and northern Holmes County, but the filing deadline for independents to seek the seat isn’t until March.” I thought he moved to Oregon about 15 years ago?
January 18, 20241 yr 16 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Ugh. Please just GO AWAY Kucinich. What a clown. He couldn’t even bother to get his paperwork submitted in time for the primary, so he’s running as an independent. https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/01/dennis-kucinich-files-fec-paperwork-to-run-for-congress-against-republican-max-miller.html?outputType=amp “Former Democratic Cleveland mayor, congressman and longshot presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich filed paperwork at the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday that indicates he’s running as an independent for the congressional seat held by Rocky River Republican Rep. Max Miller. Kucinich has previously run for office as a Democrat. He missed the December deadline to run in the Democratic primary for the seat that encompasses western and southern Cuyahoga County, Medina and Wayne counties, and northern Holmes County, but the filing deadline for independents to seek the seat isn’t until March.” Better than Max Miller. But that's a bar so low you could trip over it... Miller won the district in 2022 by almost 11%, I'm not sure Kucinich is going to be hurting a Democrat's chances here.
January 18, 20241 yr Author 24 minutes ago, Luke_S said: Better than Max Miller. But that's a bar so low you could trip over it... Miller won the district in 2022 by almost 11%, I'm not sure Kucinich is going to be hurting a Democrat's chances here. Matt Diemer is clearly a long shot. I don’t know how the redistricting impacted this district. But Kucinich taking votes away makes an extremely difficult race for Diemer that much harder. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 12, 20241 yr Author Interesting results in the Ohio 6 special election. “With virtually all ballots counted in #OH06, per the AP, Rulli's final margin over Kripchak is 9 points. This is a Trump+29 seat, so that's a 20-point overperformance for Democrats.” https://x.com/baseballot/status/1800705097518723425?s=46 When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 12, 20241 yr 6 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: Interesting results in the Ohio 6 special election. “With virtually all ballots counted in #OH06, per the AP, Rulli's final margin over Kripchak is 9 points. This is a Trump+29 seat, so that's a 20-point overperformance for Democrats.” https://x.com/baseballot/status/1800705097518723425?s=46 I'm not sure how much can be drawn from this, the general consensus now is that Democrats have gained higher propensity voters that are more likely to be aware and turn out in these types of special elections (or elections in general that Trump is not on the ballot).
June 12, 20241 yr Special elections are always a little weird and I don't think this seat has any real chance of flipping in the November election. However, it may be a good sign for Sherrod Brown if he is able to narrow the margins in Appalachian Ohio like Kripchak did.
June 12, 20241 yr The electorate will be VASTLY different, no way Brown touches a 9% margin. But I agree, if Brown can narrow Trump's likely 30 pt performance (in OH-6) to 15pts against Moreno, he stands a chance. Youngstown is scaring me a little bit trend-wise, but Stark County's trend (in theory) should make up for it. In 2022, Ryan lost by about 25-30pts in OH-6. He ended up losing to Vance by 6%. That theoretically was a favorable environment for him: Trump not on ballot, and the Red-wave was cancelled in places not named NY and CA. Edited June 12, 20241 yr by 10albersa
September 11, 2024Sep 11 Author How am I supposed to take PD endorsements seriously when they do things like this? Dennis J. Kucinich in the 7th Congressional District of Ohio: endorsement editorial https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/2024/09/dennis-j-kucinich-in-the-7th-congressional-district-of-ohio-endorsement-editorial.html When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
