October 25, 2024Oct 25 7 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: I’m not sure if you are saying Tester is likely to win, but unfortunately he only has about a 5% shot at winning reelection at this point. Florida and Texas are both significantly more likely to go blue in the Senate, and even the independent in Nebraska has a better shot of winning than Tester. (Not favored, just more likely than Tester.) Yeah, I meant to say Sheehy, if he wins that pretty much guarantees a GOP Senate. So the Ohio election is more about the merits of the candidates and less about the national ramifications.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 Moreno projected to defeat incumbent Brown to take Ohio’s highly-contested Senate seat for Republicans. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/politics/ohio-politics/moreno-projected-to-defeat-incumbent-brown-to-take-ohios-highly-contested-senate-seat-for-republicans "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
November 6, 2024Nov 6 43 minutes ago, KJP said: Moreno projected to defeat incumbent Brown to take Ohio’s highly-contested Senate seat for Republicans. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/politics/ohio-politics/moreno-projected-to-defeat-incumbent-brown-to-take-ohios-highly-contested-senate-seat-for-republicans This state is full of absolute morons. We will become the Mississippi of the north.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 43 minutes ago, KJP said: Moreno projected to defeat incumbent Brown to take Ohio’s highly-contested Senate seat for Republicans. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/politics/ohio-politics/moreno-projected-to-defeat-incumbent-brown-to-take-ohios-highly-contested-senate-seat-for-republicans Awesome!
November 6, 2024Nov 6 Pretty incredible how Bernardo Moreno, the child of wealthy, Colombian immigrants and educated at U of M no less, gets voted into an Ohio Senate seat by voters with a disdain towards immigrants, make less than the median national income, and who are fiercely loyal to Ohio State.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 8 hours ago, KJP said: Moreno projected to defeat incumbent Brown to take Ohio’s highly-contested Senate seat for Republicans. https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/politics/ohio-politics/moreno-projected-to-defeat-incumbent-brown-to-take-ohios-highly-contested-senate-seat-for-republicans The national ticket dragged Sherrod down. In a non-Presidential year, or with a more credible Presidential nominee, he wins. No doubt in my mind. Moreno was likely going to the Senate anyway, to replace Vance. So now, who does? I favor LaRose, or it could be Dolan. Or does Dewine resign in favor of Husted, who sends him back to the Senate for the next 4 years?
November 6, 2024Nov 6 45 minutes ago, E Rocc said: The national ticket dragged Sherrod down. In a non-Presidential year, or with a more credible Presidential nominee, he wins. No doubt in my mind. Moreno was likely going to the Senate anyway, to replace Vance. So now, who does? I favor LaRose, or it could be Dolan. Or does Dewine resign in favor of Husted, who sends him back to the Senate for the next 4 years? Will be interesting what DeWine does as he has not been a trumpster So Vivek is not likely and DeWine is tight with powerful Dolan family so that is possible or taking the safe route and just picks Portman who is also not a trumpster back for the two year interim before a special election.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 2 hours ago, E Rocc said: Moreno was likely going to the Senate anyway, to replace Vance. With two junior senators, we won't have any committee chairs. We surrendered any seniority.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 5 minutes ago, Foraker said: With two junior senators, we won't have any committee chairs. We surrendered any seniority. We weren't going to have any anyway as the GOP is now in the majority.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 2 hours ago, Willo said: Will be interesting what DeWine does as he has not been a trumpster So Vivek is not likely and DeWine is tight with powerful Dolan family so that is possible or taking the safe route and just picks Portman who is also not a trumpster back for the two year interim before a special election. I'd like to see him appoint Sherrod Brown. Let the healing begin.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 13 hours ago, CMHOhio said: Pretty incredible how Bernardo Moreno, the child of wealthy, Colombian immigrants and educated at U of M no less, gets voted into an Ohio Senate seat by voters with a disdain towards immigrants, make less than the median national income, and who are fiercely loyal to Ohio State. That is a gross mischaracterization of the voters, especially with regards to immigrants. It's not a disdain towards immigrants, but rather, blatant and rampant illegal immigration.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 25 minutes ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said: That is a gross mischaracterization of the voters, especially with regards to immigrants. It's not a disdain towards immigrants, but rather, blatant and rampant illegal immigration. Right -- no hatred at all. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/20/us/haitian-immigrants-springfield-threats/index.html While you may be right that "immigration" was a strong voter-motivation, there's no evidence to support the claim that there is "blatant and rampant" illegal immigration. Particularly not in Ohio. Facts don't matter though, I realize that.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 4 minutes ago, Foraker said: Right -- no hatred at all. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/20/us/haitian-immigrants-springfield-threats/index.html While you may be right that "immigration" was a strong voter-motivation, there's no evidence to support the claim that there is "blatant and rampant" illegal immigration. Particularly not in Ohio. Facts don't matter though, I realize that. Yeah, it’s pointless to argue with people that have zero critical thinking skills, you could present them with thousands of pages of evidence proving their thought wrong and they will never believe it.
November 6, 2024Nov 6 1 hour ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said: That is a gross mischaracterization of the voters, especially with regards to immigrants. It's not a disdain towards immigrants, but rather, blatant and rampant illegal immigration. Unscreened illegal immigration. With no expectation of assimilation. With the intent of changing the nature of the American electorate because it doesn't support one party or ideology. Nevertheless, Moreno's campaign grossly mischaracterized Sherrod's record on same, as well as the transgender thing.
November 7, 2024Nov 7 21 hours ago, Cleburger said: I'd like to see him appoint Sherrod Brown. Let the healing begin. Obviously, that's not going to happen with the parties so tightly balanced. That said, convincing Portman to go back for the two year term makes a lot of sense. He left because things were getting so acrimonious. But he wouldn't run again, and I believe his seniority would carry over. By most accounts, Brown and Vance worked well together. Both are gone, and has been said two freshmen isn't a good thing for the state. That's a big part of why I ended up supporting Sherrod.
November 7, 2024Nov 7 25 minutes ago, E Rocc said: That said, convincing Portman to go back for the two year term makes a lot of sense. He left because things were getting so acrimonious. But he wouldn't run again, and I believe his seniority would carry over. I don't usually vote Republican, but I always respected Portman. I thought he was a good senator with Ohio's best interest in mind. It would be nice to get back to some civility and dignity in office. I'm also really hoping to see Sherrod Brown back in office after the 2026 special election. Like Portman, he was always one to put Ohio above party.
November 7, 2024Nov 7 DeWine could also take the job himself. Former Senator, he knows the ropes. And if he approves of his LtG as the next governor, he would be giving Husted a boost. I don't think this is likely, nor do I think it is likely that Portman returns. He's 69, he's moved on. Dewine is 77. Who did DeWine like in the primary - Dolan? That would be my bet.
November 7, 2024Nov 7 On 11/6/2024 at 2:51 PM, Foraker said: Right -- no hatred at all. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/20/us/haitian-immigrants-springfield-threats/index.html While you may be right that "immigration" was a strong voter-motivation, there's no evidence to support the claim that there is "blatant and rampant" illegal immigration. Particularly not in Ohio. Facts don't matter though, I realize that. Classic liberal mindset of telling someone that they are the opposite of their own beliefs. I have no issue with immigrants or immigration. Immigrants bring great value to our country with their customs and desire for an opportunity to flourish. Your link profiles an individual that has a protective status. Thus, he received asylum or some similar status and is not illegal or undocumented. This PEW research article, https://pewrsr.ch/3MNDkkW, states there are 11 million undocumented persons in the U.S. in 2022, close to the population of Ohio. It goes on to state that 8.3 million are in the workforce. Think of all those Social Security taxes that are not being collected on those workers. It weakens the trust fund that allows payments at Social Security and as these workers age, and eventually retire or become disabled, there is no money for them to collect from Social Security. This singular aspect has long term ramifications for themselves and for the country. They are missing out on potential Medicare and Social Security payments in the future and current Social Security recipients are told it will run out in a few years because not enough workers are paying into the system.
November 7, 2024Nov 7 ^ fyi Undocumented Immigrants' Payments Into Social Security Detailed in Report Published Jul 30, 2024 By Aliss Higham/US News Reporter Undocumented immigrants paid nearly $26 billion into Social Security coffers in a single year, a new report has found. New analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) found that undocumented residents paid £25.7 billion into Social Security funds and $6 billion into Medicare in 2022; both programs that they are not entitled to use. In total, undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion, or roughly $9,000 per person, in taxes in 2022. Altogether, undocumented people paid a total of $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022, with $59.4 billion paid to the federal government and the remaining $37.3 billion paid to state and local authorities. In 40 states, undocumented immigrants were found to pay higher state and local tax rates than the top 1 percent of households living in the same state. https://www.newsweek.com/undocumented-immigrants-social-security-payments-report-1931990
November 7, 2024Nov 7 ^ ITEP has a left-leaning bias and there are other (possibly right-leaning) studies that would state the opposite, including those outside of the US. I take any such articles/studies with skepticism and it's tough to find one without bias or an agenda. Anyway, didn't come here to get into a pissing match and post articles. I will say this election cycle ballot didn't do any favors to democratic party supported candidates or issues. They were victims of a national swing away from the democrats. I'm thinking Brown likely wins if this was a different election cycle. And probably more importantly the OH supreme court justices would have remained more balanced.
November 8, 2024Nov 8 ^ whats wrong with posting articles lol. 😂 anyhow the right leaning CATO Institute pretty much backs up those numbers on undocumented immigrant contributions.
November 8, 2024Nov 8 I think there's a lot of Rs that don't even know you and your employer pay into it. They think you just "get" it when you hit 65.
November 8, 2024Nov 8 5 hours ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said: Classic liberal mindset of telling someone that they are the opposite of their own beliefs. I have no issue with immigrants or immigration. Immigrants bring great value to our country with their customs and desire for an opportunity to flourish. Your link profiles an individual that has a protective status. Thus, he received asylum or some similar status and is not illegal or undocumented. This PEW research article, https://pewrsr.ch/3MNDkkW, states there are 11 million undocumented persons in the U.S. in 2022, close to the population of Ohio. It goes on to state that 8.3 million are in the workforce. Think of all those Social Security taxes that are not being collected on those workers. It weakens the trust fund that allows payments at Social Security and as these workers age, and eventually retire or become disabled, there is no money for them to collect from Social Security. This singular aspect has long term ramifications for themselves and for the country. They are missing out on potential Medicare and Social Security payments in the future and current Social Security recipients are told it will run out in a few years because not enough workers are paying into the system. Not disagreeing with you overall, but there were 20 million illegals in 2000 when Bush 43 was in office and people in the know thought that number was low.. The latest number about 11 million has been stagnant now for years. The truth of the matter is a former border control officer who might know more about this than I estimated there are closer to 50 million illegals in the country going back decades. Edited November 8, 2024Nov 8 by John7165
November 8, 2024Nov 8 I just didn't like being characterized with the phrase, "voters with a disdain towards immigrants." I think that happens with both sides, we tend to group all the voters on a particular side together and say they voted for this reason or the other. The biggest example is people say conservative voters didn't vote for Kamala because we are either racist or misogynistic, when the vast majority just don't agree with her views or feel she is an incompetent leader. Same for Brown, he might be competent, but I don't agree with most of his views. It's that simple for me and the people I talk to. Edited November 8, 2024Nov 8 by STRIVE2THRIVE
November 8, 2024Nov 8 2 hours ago, surfohio said: ^ whats wrong with posting articles lol. 😂 anyhow the right leaning CATO Institute pretty much backs up those numbers on undocumented immigrant contributions. Nothing wrong with that, but just wanted to be clear I wasn't trying to take a side. CATO is more of Koch Brothers open border thing (I find it ironic when some liberals cite this to make an argument). The Federation for American Immigration Reform would be the more obvious conservative bias publication arguing the opposite. And there are also various publications out there put forth by several states which make various conclusions. So I guess my point is that I don't really trust any such reports because there is an apparent political or corporate agenda behind just about any of them I've seen.
November 9, 2024Nov 9 20 hours ago, STRIVE2THRIVE said: I just didn't like being characterized with the phrase, "voters with a disdain towards immigrants." I think that happens with both sides, we tend to group all the voters on a particular side together and say they voted for this reason or the other. The biggest example is people say conservative voters didn't vote for Kamala because we are either racist or misogynistic, when the vast majority just don't agree with her views or feel she is an incompetent leader. Same for Brown, he might be competent, but I don't agree with most of his views. It's that simple for me and the people I talk to. Good point Brown is smart so he must have read the tea leaves on immigration/crime early but unfortunately chose unauthentic imagery as if he was either a full-time Border officer or standing with Po-Po as if filming an episode of COPS. We know Brown's policy wonk strengths over the decades but he may have turned off the new voting youths (or yutes) by introducing himself otherwise in seemingly round the clock ads.
November 9, 2024Nov 9 On 11/6/2024 at 8:29 AM, Willo said: Will be interesting what DeWine does as he has not been a trumpster So Vivek is not likely and DeWine is tight with powerful Dolan family so that is possible or taking the safe route and just picks Portman who is also not a trumpster back for the two year interim before a special election. I could see Dolan or Portman as a logical choice. I don't have any special insight, other than that I think it will depend on what Dewine's future plans are. I was curious who the betting markets are thinking are most likely. They don't seem to have Portman, not sure why. Timken is viewed as fairly likely, but I don't see being discussed above.
November 9, 2024Nov 9 Is Portman even interested in coming back? I'd rather run The Golden Lamb than be a senator too.
November 11, 2024Nov 11 Portman quit because things got to crazy. Why would he come back now when things are more crazy
November 11, 2024Nov 11 "Seniority calculation Seniority is calculated by: Number of total terms served (subtracting one term from the number of non-consecutive terms) Number of consecutive terms served Alphabetically by last name" So either Dewine or Portman would go in with one term of seniority.
November 11, 2024Nov 11 1 hour ago, mu2010 said: Portman quit because things got to crazy. Why would he come back now when things are more crazy I doubt he would. If he did it would be to help make things less crazy. They aren't even mentioning LaRose. Though he would be my choice, I'm good with Dolan. I don't see Dewine appointing anyone as MAGA as Timken.
November 11, 2024Nov 11 DeWine Yet to Name Replacement for JD Vance’s Senate Seat Ballots in some districts are still being tallied, but the broad strokes of the 2024 election are clear, and the results mean Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has a big decision to make. J.D. Vance is jumping from U.S. Senator to Vice President-elect leaving a vacancy DeWine needs to fill. Whoever he chooses will serve for the next two years, with the opportunity to defend the seat in the next federal election in 2026. And since Vance was elected in 2022, his replacement would have to turn around and do it all over again in 2028. “It’s got to be someone who wants to spend the next four years not just doing the job, but running for office,” DeWine explained at post-election conference hosted by the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. On the other hand, incumbency means DeWine’s appointee could enter the race with a bit of wind in their sails. And DeWine has important strategic factors to consider. The Republican party currently controls each state office in Ohio. But in each case — Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Auditor and Treasurer — the politicians occupying those offices are term-limited. That means a broad array of open seats, and several experienced candidates who can make a case reasonable for their nomination to a new post. That game of musical chairs could easily tip into an intraparty knife fight. DeWine’s pick for the U.S. Senate could help keep it from getting out of hand. But it’s not clear if that will work. One potential recipient, Attorney General Dave Yost, has already said he’d turn down the nomination. Yost is eyeing a run for governor, as is Lt. Gov. Jon Husted. More below: https://columbusunderground.com/dewine-yet-to-name-replacement-for-jd-vances-senate-seat-ocj1/ "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
November 12, 2024Nov 12 https://nypost.com/2024/11/11/us-news/two-frontrunners-emerge-in-race-to-replace-j-d-vance-in-senate-trump-will-make-the-call/ The NY Post thinks the appointment will be either Timken or Ramaswamy, with Dewine favoring Timken, and Trump favoring Ramaswamy. Their unnamed experts claim that if Trump pressures Dewine in favor of Vivek, he'll buckle. I'm not sure I buy that, but that's their reporting.
November 12, 2024Nov 12 5 minutes ago, Ethan said: https://nypost.com/2024/11/11/us-news/two-frontrunners-emerge-in-race-to-replace-j-d-vance-in-senate-trump-will-make-the-call/ The NY Post thinks the appointment will be either Timken or Ramaswamy, with Dewine favoring Timken, and Trump favoring Ramaswamy. Their unnamed experts claim that if Trump pressures Dewine in favor of Vivek, he'll buckle. I'm not sure I buy that, but that's their reporting. Bernie Moreno and Vivek Ramaswamy. How embarrassing for Ohio. We continue our nosedive to the abyss of flyover country.
November 12, 2024Nov 12 DeWine can be weak kneed, but why does he need to bow down to Trump? While he won't admit it publicly and toes the GOP line, I don't believe he is a major Trump fan. He also doesn't have to pander to the MAGA political base in Ohio since he won't face re-election. I hope for all our sakes he picks Dolan.
November 12, 2024Nov 12 1 minute ago, Htsguy said: DeWine can be weak kneed, but why does he need to bow down to Trump? While he won't admit it publicly and toes the GOP line, I don't believe he is a major Trump fan. He also doesn't have to pander to the MAGA political base in Ohio since he won't face re-election. I hope for all our sakes he picks Dolan. The ultimate FU to Trump would be to appoint Sherrod Brown, which will never happen, but at least Dewine would know he's nominating someone who cares about Ohio.
November 12, 2024Nov 12 1 hour ago, Htsguy said: DeWine can be weak kneed, but why does he need to bow down to Trump? While he won't admit it publicly and toes the GOP line, I don't believe he is a major Trump fan. He also doesn't have to pander to the MAGA political base in Ohio since he won't face re-election. I hope for all our sakes he picks Dolan. I believe DeWine will most likely appoint FirstEnergy to that senate seat. Corporations are people, my friend.
November 12, 2024Nov 12 1 hour ago, surfohio said: I believe DeWine will most likely appoint FirstEnergy to that senate seat. Corporations are people, my friend. True DeWine somehow escaped that mess like Houdini and if he wants pardons for his friends/donors who were not so lucky he will have to play ball with Trump and appoint Vivek- if that’s what Trump and Vivek want. Who knows…
November 12, 2024Nov 12 57 minutes ago, Willo said: True DeWine somehow escaped that mess like Houdini and if he wants pardons for his friends/donors who were not so lucky he will have to play ball with Trump and appoint Vivek- if that’s what Trump and Vivek want. Who knows… The irony is Timken has always been a Trump loyalist, that's even why she got the state chair to begin with, while Vivek was of course a Trump critic to the point of running against him for the nomination. Same with Rubio. We all know JD's history in this regard. Seems like he's favoring his former critics.
November 13, 2024Nov 13 6 hours ago, E Rocc said: The irony is Timken has always been a Trump loyalist, that's even why she got the state chair to begin with, while Vivek was of course a Trump critic to the point of running against him for the nomination. Same with Rubio. We all know JD's history in this regard. Seems like he's favoring his former critics. Looks like Vivek is out if he accepts the new position with Elon on Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. Guess DeWine can now go with his reported preference Timken as a placeholder for 2 years.
November 13, 2024Nov 13 12 hours ago, Willo said: Looks like Vivek is out if he accepts the new position with Elon on Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. Guess DeWine can now go with his reported preference Timken as a placeholder for 2 years. Yup, he confirmed as much. Personally, I think he may be eyeing Dewine's chair...
November 13, 2024Nov 13 17 minutes ago, Ethan said: Yup, he confirmed as much. Personally, I think he may be eyeing Dewine's chair... Ah yes, big shoes to fill. The dude didn’t do a single thing for Ohio Edited November 13, 2024Nov 13 by VintageLife
November 13, 2024Nov 13 18 minutes ago, Ethan said: Personally, I think he may be eyeing Dewine's chair... If you're right and he is going to make a play for governor this would seem like a short sighted decision... The Columbus Dispatch - Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy moving finance firm from Ohio to Dallas
November 13, 2024Nov 13 9 minutes ago, VintageLife said: Ah yes, big shoes to fill. The dude didn’t do a single thing for Ohio I didn't know he lived here until like 6 months ago
November 13, 2024Nov 13 6 minutes ago, Luke_S said: If you're right and he is going to make a play for governor this would seem like a short sighted decision... The Columbus Dispatch - Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy moving finance firm from Ohio to Dallas I didn't know about that. That doesn't rule out him running for governor, but it probably drops the probability a few points. Still might be more likely than not though. He's very popular with Trump's base, if he decides to run he's probably immediately the front runner. Anyway, it's a few years off, and for a different thread.
November 13, 2024Nov 13 On 11/7/2024 at 5:22 PM, STRIVE2THRIVE said: Your link profiles an individual that has a protective status. Thus, he received asylum or some similar status and is not illegal or undocumented. This PEW research article, https://pewrsr.ch/3MNDkkW, states there are 11 million undocumented persons in the U.S. in 2022, close to the population of Ohio. It goes on to state that 8.3 million are in the workforce. Think of all those Social Security taxes that are not being collected on those workers. It weakens the trust fund that allows payments at Social Security and as these workers age, and eventually retire or become disabled, there is no money for them to collect from Social Security. This singular aspect has long term ramifications for themselves and for the country. They are missing out on potential Medicare and Social Security payments in the future and current Social Security recipients are told it will run out in a few years because not enough workers are paying into the system. You seem to be misinformed about who pays into social security and who can collect. https://www.factcheck.org/2024/04/posts-misrepresent-immigrants-eligibility-for-social-security-numbers-benefits/ Illegal immigrants are not a detriment to social security or medicare. Social Security and Medicare would benefit from increased legal immigration.
