No surprise for those who live here (Columbus) but good news.

Bank of America’s last report of internal data had Cleveland included and not Columbus but had similarly very positive population news. With this added glowing population numbers for Columbus, I would think Ohio is doing very well at the start of this decade. Roaring 20s in the 3 C’s

2 hours ago, Gnoraa said:

Columbus, Ohio, and Austin, Texas, see biggest population gain: Report

 

"Columbus, Ohio, and Austin, Texas, saw the largest population growth among major U.S. metropolitan areas during the last half of 2023, a new report found."

 

"Both cities had a year-over-year population increase of a little over 1 percent between 2022 and 2023, according to the report from the Bank of America Institute."

 

well after all they are twinsies! 

14 minutes ago, bwheats said:

Bank of America’s last report of internal data had Cleveland included and not Columbus but had similarly very positive population news. With this added glowing population numbers for Columbus, I would think Ohio is doing very well at the start of this decade. Roaring 20s in the 3 C’s

 

thats good to hear too.

2 hours ago, Gnoraa said:

Columbus, Ohio, and Austin, Texas, see biggest population gain: Report

 

"Columbus, Ohio, and Austin, Texas, saw the largest population growth among major U.S. metropolitan areas during the last half of 2023, a new report found."

 

"Both cities had a year-over-year population increase of a little over 1 percent between 2022 and 2023, according to the report from the Bank of America Institute."

 

Here's the chart BofA created, based on their own internal data (however reliable that is). 

 

I like how the narrative is that Southern metros all performed well and everywhere else did poorly... and then you look at the numbers and see it was a lot more mixed than that. 

Also interesting to note how they show most of these metros slowing down in the 4th quarter, but Columbus maintained its rate.

2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

I like how the narrative is that Southern metros all performed well and everywhere else did poorly... and then you look at the numbers and see it was a lot more mixed than that. 

Also interesting to note how they show most of these metros slowing down in the 4th quarter, but Columbus maintained its rate.

 

Well, 5 of the 7 cities with growth were in the South, so that is notable. But yea, it's funny when that is the headline but then you look at the chart and Columbus is number 1 by a decent amount.

 

I'm surprised to Philly in the list though...

7 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

I like how the narrative is that Southern metros all performed well and everywhere else did poorly... and then you look at the numbers and see it was a lot more mixed than that. 

Also interesting to note how they show most of these metros slowing down in the 4th quarter, but Columbus maintained its rate.

 

I bet a lot of BofA's mortgages are in the South with them being in Charlotte and all. Swinging the towel.

2 hours ago, bwheats said:

Bank of America’s last report of internal data had Cleveland included and not Columbus but had similarly very positive population news. With this added glowing population numbers for Columbus, I would think Ohio is doing very well at the start of this decade. Roaring 20s in the 3 C’s

 

Do you have a link or more info? This is the first l'm hearing about population gains for us.

2 hours ago, cbussoccer said:

 

Well, 5 of the 7 cities with growth were in the South, so that is notable. But yea, it's funny when that is the headline but then you look at the chart and Columbus is number 1 by a decent amount.

 

I'm surprised to Philly in the list though...

My company/employer is in Philly and I visit on occasion.  From my co-workers that live there, this doesn't necessarily surprise me, they keep talking about how many people from NYC moved to Philly in recent years.  Still has a relatively NY feel yet considerably more affordable that NYC.  Just my two cents from people I know that actually live there.  They're not necessarily happy about it though because the NYC folks have a larger purchasing power and are making the home buying a bit more difficult for the longer time locals.

 

It's amazing, Columbus is the highest/fastest on this list, and I feel like we are still in the early ramp up stages of in Intel influx and their suppliers on the way.  I have a feeling we will be on this list for many consecutive years to come!!  I'm glad I bought my house when I did because it's already double in price in 5 years!!

2 hours ago, cbussoccer said:

 

Well, 5 of the 7 cities with growth were in the South, so that is notable. But yea, it's funny when that is the headline but then you look at the chart and Columbus is number 1 by a decent amount.

 

I'm surprised to Philly in the list though...

 

4 of the 7, Las Vegas is not Southern. It's also selection bias. It's not a comprehensive list of the largest cities or metros, just some of the largest with many absenses for some reason. Also, the South also had the largest group of cities on this list of the 4 main regions with losses. Why is that not equally notable? And no mention of Columbus at all. 

2 hours ago, cadmen said:

 

Do you have a link or more info? This is the first l'm hearing about population gains for us.

 

 

https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/housing-morsel-great-migration-continues.pdf

 

 

9 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

4 of the 7, Las Vegas is not Southern. It's also selection bias. It's not a comprehensive list of the largest cities or metros, just some of the largest with many absenses for some reason. Also, the South also had the largest group of cities on this list of the 4 main regions with losses. Why is that not equally notable? And no mention of Columbus at all. 

 

You probably need to read the whole report to understand why they are singling out "The South" in the chart I posted. This section was immediately before the section with the chart I posted.

 

 

Here's the full report: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/on-the-move-west-side-story.pdf

On 2/9/2024 at 4:42 PM, cbussoccer said:

 

You probably need to read the whole report to understand why they are singling out "The South" in the chart I posted. This section was immediately before the section with the chart I posted.

 

 

Here's the full report: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/on-the-move-west-side-story.pdf

 

I did. I was specifically talking about the metro graph. That said, the South's time of growth, IMO, will be limited. It's been benefitting from an aging population retiring, as well as what was cheaper COL. But COL has skyrocketed, and climate change will increasingly make parts of the South unbearable. All booms end, and the factors leading to the South's end are already here.

On 2/9/2024 at 4:35 PM, Dougal said:

 

 

https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/housing-morsel-great-migration-continues.pdf

 

 

Here as well estimates the Cleveland metro as growing these past 2-3 years (although not a large number, it’s a shock to the system to not see it negative!)

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22959/cleveland/population#:~:text=The current metro area population,a 0.06% increase from 2021.

I'll await @jonoh81 for the breakdown, here's some stuff:

 

Columbus MSA added 18,205 people

Cincinnati MSA added 12,854

Dayton MSA added 1,649

Akron MSA added 887

Canton MSA added 3

Springfield MSA lost -122

Mansfield MSA lost -197

Lima MSA lost -259

Toledo MSA lost -378

Sandusky MSA lost -644

Steubenville MSA lost -677

Youngstown-Warren MSA lost -679

Cleveland MSA lost -1,769

 

Delaware County led the state last year in population growth, with 5,110 new residents, followed by Franklin (4,333), and Butler (3,315) counties. Measured by percentage growth, however, Union County paced Ohio with 4.1% growth.

 

Source: https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/local/2024/03/14/columbus-ohio-state-population-growth-us-census-covid/72945989007/

 

Oh, and the state's biggest surprise is Athens County!

 

Micro Areas

 

Seaford, DE, had the largest U.S. micro area gain in population, adding 7,062 between 2022 and 2023, followed by Jefferson, GA, which added 4,606 over the same period.

 

The five fastest-growing U.S. micro areas between 2022 and 2023 were Jefferson, GA (5.5%); Clewiston, FL (4.2%); Lewisburg, TN (3.1%); Williston, ND (3.0%); and Athens, OH (3.0%). 

 

Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-more-counties-population-gains-2023.html

 

Way to to Athens!!!

 

Here's the data from the Census Bureau: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2020-2023/metro/totals/cbsa-met-est2023-pop.xlsx

 

Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland are ranking 30th, 32nd, and 33rd in the country. 

 

Here's the county data as well: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2020-2023/counties/totals/co-est2023-pop-39.xlsx

I was looking at the components of change and while this is a minor consolation, but it's worth noting in some areas that domestic migration is actually positive (even if small) in areas with overall population losses. What's striking is that among them are Youngstown and Steubenville - these areas have natural decline for decades and that's still a huge problem (there and increasing in a lot of the country), but Youngstown gained 2,800 people migration wise this decade. It had a net lose of 4,700 because deaths are double that of births. For many years though, migration was a loss as well.

 

Steubenville is a small metro. Its migration gain was well under a 100 during this period, but again, usually it's a decline. For many areas, births propel the area, but again, the deaths are hard to overcome. This impacted Akron too. I haven't look at all of the metros though.

The major issue with lots of eastern Ohio counties is just how darn old they are. Look at the median ages for the counties along the Ohio River and bordering Pennsylvania, most of them are 40+ years old. Deaths are going to outweigh births for a long time in those areas unless there is a new baby boom. Domestic migration may help stem the bleeding, but I don't see this trend reversing any time soon.

Eastern Ohio isn't cranking out the babies that bolt as soon as they turn 18 and can control where they live like the rest of Appalachian Ohio does.

Yeah, I'm going to have a problem with numbers that have Youngstown raking in domestic migration while Columbus loses almost 12,000. 

Considering that the birth rate for the US is well below replacement rate, the real growth is from migration.   Maybe Bibb should declare Cleveland a sanctuary city so Governor Abbott will ship a couple hundred thousand to Cleveland.  

Not just Cleveland but like 70 counties of Ohio.

14 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

Yeah, I'm going to have a problem with numbers that have Youngstown raking in domestic migration while Columbus loses almost 12,000. 

 

Youngstown is not "raking in domestic migration." It had a gain though.

 

Columbus only lost a little domestically and gained significantly overall in migration.

So is Columbus getting better at retaining natives then? Used to be people would want to go away to school but now they know they need the outstanding networking OSU provides.

I thought overall Columbus lost almost 12k in domestic migration but when all three years are considered, it was minimal. Regardless, I think estimates are wildly off and job growth would indicate that all three cities are plugging along, especially Cincy and Columbus due to positive natural rate.

4 hours ago, GCrites said:

So is Columbus getting better at retaining natives then? Used to be people would want to go away to school but now they know they need the outstanding networking OSU provides.

4 out of the last 5 new hires in our company are OSU grads from NE Ohio. They're deciding to stay in Columbus because they were able to find a job here and their friends are staying here too. Anecdotal, of course.

On 3/16/2024 at 7:14 AM, ohpenn said:

 

Youngstown is not "raking in domestic migration." It had a gain though.

 

Columbus only lost a little domestically and gained significantly overall in migration.

 

The Census is estimating a domestic loss for the metro of 1,602 2020-2023, but I was really talking about Columbus itself. While we don't have the latest 2023 number for the city alone, it's showing Franklin County losing almost 37,000 domestically over the same period, including almost 12,000 between 2022-2023, almost 2x that of Cleveland. I'm going to continue to call BS on that. 

ohio schools by the numbers 2022-23 

 

public schools enrollment increased since the oughties, although overall enrollment dropped from 1.8M to 1.6M currently (iow it seems there are more kids are going to public schools, but there are less school age kids overall) —

 

 

 

2024

Ohio Education
BY THE Numbers

 

The Thomas B. Fordham Institute is pleased to present the seventh edition of Ohio Education By The Numbers. This website provides an impartial, fact-based overview of K-12 education in the Buckeye State. We hope these data will help to inform conversations about improving education throughout the state.

 

https://ohiobythenumbers.com/#student-enrollment

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 20241 yr by mrnyc

Schools are now almost 100% dependent on kids born 2008 and after. Now the kids are born into poorer, less-educated families so also no surprise that interest in private schools is lower. People need good jobs right out of school -- not just when they are over 40.

Latest 2023 City Estimates

Top 25 Largest Ohio Cities 

1. Columbus: 913,175

2. Cleveland: 362,656

3. Cincinnati: 311,097

4. Toledo: 265,304

5. Akron: 188,701 

6. Dayton: 135,512

7. Parma: 78,951

8. Canton: 69,197 

9. Lorain: 65,337

10. Hamilton: 62,997

11. Youngstown: 59,108

12. Springfield: 58,082

13. Kettering: 56,876

14. Elyria: 53,117

15. Middletown: 51,478

16. Newark: 51,046

17. Cuyahoga Falls: 50,742

18. Lakewood: 49,337

19. Dublin: 48,923

20. Euclid: 48,212

21. Mansfield: 47,711

22. Beavercreek: 47,193 

23. Mentor: 46,929

24. Strongsville: 45,511

25. Delaware: 45,158

 

Top 25 Largest Cities Population Change since 2022 and 2022

1. Columbus: +7236/+4937

2. Delaware: +3831/+1176

3. Cincinnati: +1530/+1692

4. Newark: +1098/+262

5. Beavercreek: +663/+264

6. Middletown: +488/+262

7. Elyria: +450/+239

8. Mansfield: +170/-130

9. Lorain: +125/+11

10. Cuyahoga Falls: -377/+98

11. Hamilton: -388/+61

12. Dublin: -390/-90

13. Mentor: -512/-95

14. Springfield: -572/+13

15. Youngstown: -939/-109

16. Strongsville: -974/-209

17. Kettering: -993/-114

18. Euclid: -1473/-277

19. Canton: -1571/-348

20. Lakewood: -1604/-331

21. Akron: -1717/+229

22. Dayton: -2113/-316

23. Parma: -2172/-409

24. Toledo: -5576/-1046

25. Cleveland: -9940/-150

 

Top 10 Largest Increase 2020-2023

1. Columbus: +7236

2. Delaware: +3831

3. Marysville: +2838

4. Pickerington: +2156

5. North Ridgeville: +1785

6. Sunbury: +1730

7. Grove City: +1538

8. Cincinnati: +1530

9. Centerville: +1505

10. Obetz: +1488

Top 10 Largest Increases 2022-2023

1. Columbus: +4937

2. Athens: +1955

3. Cincinnati: +1692

4. Oxford: +1343

5. Marysville: +1279

6. Delaware: +1176

7. Obetz: +945

8. Bowling Green: +729

9. Pickerington: +729

10. Centerville: +625

Top 10 Largest Decreases 2020-2023

1. Cleveland: -9940

2. Toledo: -5576

3. Parma: -2172

4. Dayton: -2113

5. Akron: -1717

6. Lakewood: -1604

7. Canton: -1571

8. Euclid: -1473

9. Cleveland Heights: -1408

10. Westerville: -1236

Top 10 Largest Decreases 2022-2023

1. Toledo: -1046

2. Parma: -409

3. Canton: -348

4. Lakewood: -331

5. Dayton: -316

6. Cleveland Heights: -290

7. Berea: -287

8. Sandusky: -285

9. Euclid: -277

10. Barberton: -257

 

Finally, as with most new estimates, previous years were adjusted up or down. Here are the best and worst adjustments for the original 2022 estimate and the 2023 estimate for 2022. Since estimates can be off, adjustments can tell us if a place may be growing or shrinking faster/more slowly than estimates may indicate, or whether previous estimates were off more than thought. 

 

Top 10 Best Adjustments

1. Athens: +1898

2. Oxford: +1352

3. Cleveland: +1199

4. Granville: +361

5. Columbus: +267

6. New Albany: +223

7. Delaware: +87

8. Youngstonw: +73

9. Alliance: +67

10. Toledo: +49

Top 10 Worst Adjustments

1. Westerville: -308

2. Fairborn: -271

3. Berea: -186

4. Ashland: -171

5. Canton: -126

6. Dayton: -116

7. Cincinnati: -108

8. Tiffin: -83

9. Wilmington: -52

10. Massillon: -43

 

Overall, the 2023 estimates seem weird to me, but they've been weird for a while now. They were generally better for larger cities than in other post-pandemic years, generally bad for major suburbs, and very mixed for everywhere else. 

From Ohio Department of Development

 

 

https://development.ohio.gov/wps/wcm/connect/gov/a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf/State-of-Ohio-Population-Projections-Overview-2020-to-2050.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE.Z18_M1HGGIK0N0JO00QO9DDDDM3000-a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf-oTi9Hac

 

1 hour ago, GISguy said:

From Ohio Department of Development

 

 

https://development.ohio.gov/wps/wcm/connect/gov/a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf/State-of-Ohio-Population-Projections-Overview-2020-to-2050.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE.Z18_M1HGGIK0N0JO00QO9DDDDM3000-a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf-oTi9Hac

 

They’re just extrapolating the current rate of change forward, right? If so, big whoop. We know which counties are gaining / losing, and producing a report on “what if everything keeps happening just like it is now for 30 years” doesn’t tell you much.

1 hour ago, GISguy said:

From Ohio Department of Development

 

 

https://development.ohio.gov/wps/wcm/connect/gov/a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf/State-of-Ohio-Population-Projections-Overview-2020-to-2050.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE.Z18_M1HGGIK0N0JO00QO9DDDDM3000-a9ee6aa5-cb22-4c35-8154-cf633daa6daf-oTi9Hac

 

 

Quote

Population change: Ohio’s population is projected to decline by approximately 675,000 (5.7%) by 2050 if current rates of fertility, mortality, and migration remain unchanged.

FYI this is the methodology.  I can see how fertility and mortality are pretty predictable, but the uncertainty on migration rate has to be enormous.

Yeah based on year-over-year census data I've seen from a Cleveland perspective, especially in the counties surrounding Cuyahoga, something about this doesn't seem right...

Interesting data from The Brookings Institution. Immigration was responsible for 100% of Ohio's population gain over the last year. 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/immigration-drives-the-nations-healthy-post-pandemic-population-growth-new-census-data-show/

18 hours ago, KJP said:

Interesting data from The Brookings Institution. Immigration was responsible for 100% of Ohio's population gain over the last year. 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/immigration-drives-the-nations-healthy-post-pandemic-population-growth-new-census-data-show/

 

Are there any policies or programs that the cities themselves can do to increase immigration? I'd love to see Cleveland become a population magnet once again.

general census info —

 

ohio is #7 most populous state, but georgia, nc & michigan are on its heels —

 

 

 

For Immediate Release: Thursday, December 19, 2024

 

Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades

 

more:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-international-migration.html

If the incoming administration actually follows through with its threats, international migration is going to tank historically hard. And if so, Ohio's growth is going to be wiped out, along with that of many other states. So much is uncertain domestically and globally right now. 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/politics-policy/ohios-major-cities-drive-business-face-population-loss

Ohio's 'legacy' cities drive GDP but face growing population losses

 

TL;DR: Greater Ohio Policy Center comes to the *shocking* conclusion that the state needs to invest in the economies and population of cities/regions with steady/declining population (Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, Youngstown) to maintain GDP growth?!?! *mind blown*

This is a really cool tool to show the size of immigration populations in Ohio and the USA:

 

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/us-immigrant-population-metropolitan-area

Another fun "throwback" to 1920's and 1930's MSAs!

 

https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1930/metropolitan/03450421ch1.pdf

^ very cool finds.

 

i was wondering about ohio immigration lately. just glacing at the dots on the map it looks ok vs the rest of america. like hanging steady, but there is always room for improvement in that area to shake out stagnation and build attractiveness for new business.

 

and the old msa data is fun. geez the usa had only one third of the population of today back then.

Cuyahoga estimated to have grown in population, which the estimates are never favorable until the decennial census, good news. I’m sure the immigration restrictions will change Ohios fortunes for the worse regarding population in the near future.

Is that true? I'm seeing we either gained 1900 (Google AI) or lost 3900 (worldpopulationreview.com).

Census release as of 10am states growth.

Edited March 13Mar 13 by bwheats

Here are the metro area and county population estimate data sets.

 

MSA: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

 

County: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

 

To @TBideon's question, the Cleveland MSA was in fact estimated to have grown slightly between 2023 and 2024. The estimates say it grew by about 5k, although it's down nearly 14k since 2020 and has been passed by the Columbus MSA. 

13 minutes ago, bwheats said:

Census release as of 10am states growth.

Estimated population growth for Cuyahoga is +1,915 (0.15%) 2023-2024. It's still -24,181 (-1.91%) 2020-2024.

 

The whole of Ohio grew 59,270 (0.50%) 2023-2024. It's +83,851 (0.71%) 2020-2024.