Unemployment claims rise for second straight week; Columbus worst in Ohio

 

"Ohio is still in recession," Zeller said. "All of our local counties are still way over the number of weekly new claims that would signify job growth and a recovery. The figures continue to be worse out in suburban counties such as Medina and Lake than they are here in Cuyahoga County."

 

Despite the experience in Northeast Ohio, it pales compared with the Columbus area.

Columbus has the highest unemployment rate in the state.

 

"It is very rare to see Columbus being hit harder by a recession than Cleveland," Zeller wrote.

 

"In Columbus, some of the worst elevated levels of layoffs right now are in Delaware County," he wrote. "That is extremely unusual. Delaware County is probably the fastest-growing county in Ohio."

 

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2009/08/unemployment_claims_rise_for_s.html

I think they are talking about unemployment claims filed within the last couple of weeks is all.

^ Idk, we are down 6.7 million jobs yet the country keeps growing.

^ yes but at a much slower rate than before the recession began.

The sprawl in Delaware doesn't seem as intense as say Butler County by Cincinnati. It is also complicated by the degree to which the line between Franklin and Delaware is completely urbanized at this point - at least between Westerville and Dublin. The Delaware job market is small enough that a couple closures could bounce the numbers, I haven't seen many announcements so far.

Columbus will be hit much harder by this recession than Cincinnati or Cleveland before it's all over.  The artificial wealth example applies to Columbus (especially new Northern 'burbs), and retail spending will continue to fall until it comes in line with wages/income.  Just another example of a large city being propped up by home equity (though to a smaller extent), i.e. Phoenix, Vegas, Orlando..

 

In the housing area, Cleveland has and is performing comparitively well in the 20-city Schiller Index (in the top 3 over the past 15-18 months), yet Ohio overall is still slightly worse than the national average, much of it due to the Columbus metro (and central Ohio).

 

Cleveland has also already taken most of its lumps (manufacturing losses), and the medical industry is getting stronger by the month.  Cincinnati appears to be holding up well with its "recession proof" economy focused around P&G, Kroger, etc..  While Columbus and its Services sector (similar to many Sunbelt & Southwest cities) have and will continue to be impacted (going back to the artificial wealth example).

Columbus' economy has a fair amount of intrinsic recession resistance, too, particularly with the government and university presences there.  In fact, it's generally been the conventional wisdom that Columbus' economy is the most recession-resistant in the state.  The growth of the health care sector in Cleveland is promising, but Columbus also has a fairly strong presence in that sector.

 

The real estate industry in greater Columbus has taken a beating, sure.  Some condo projects have been indefinitely put on hold or scrapped altogether.  Some housing developments in the 'burbs have been abandoned midway through construction, leaving early buyers stuck with houses next to large numbers of high-priced vacant lots.  The hospitality and retail sectors have also taken a good-sized hit, but the Limited's numbers for the most recent quarter weren't bad.  Heck, even Glimcher Realty Trust (owner of Polaris) has seen its stock rebound reasonably well in the past couple of months.  Big Lots actually does better in recessions, in comparative terms.

I would say the retail sector Cbus is in danger especially the East side crowd that developed out of the Limited world, but the northern 'burbs have a gigantic buffer in the de facto national bank, J.P. Morgan Chase.

Good stuff.

Great historical data, ink.  In this short term world we live in, I really enjoy getting to see some of these long term trends. 

I am loathe to enter into the city vs. city discussion that is far too common here, but I just have to set a few facts straight.  So here goes. 

 

I have been hearing my entire life that "Columbus will be the largest city in Ohio", and I am 42 years old.  Yet, Columbus still remains far behind Cleveland & Cincinnati "metro's".  Cleveland is anywhere between 2.5 to 4.5 million, depending on what you count; Cincinnati is 2.2 to 3.5 million depending on what you count.

In ink's thread "Populations of Select Ohio Cities 1900 to 2008", Columbus passed Cincinnati in the 1970 census and passed Cleveland in the 1990 census as "the largest city in Ohio".  Rightly or wrongly, people living within the boundaries of a city is the definition of a city's population.  Now as for metro areas, Cincinnati and Cleveland are still more populus than the Columbus metro area.  According to the July 1, 2008 census data for metro areas, which can be found here, Cincinnati has 2.16 million, Cleveland has 2.09 million and Columbus has 1.77 million.  You can argue for Cincinnati and Cleveland being the 1A and 1B metro areas population-wise.  But you can't argue that Columbus is "far behind".  "In the ballpark" is more accurate.

 

As far as "cities" go, don't forget that Columbus is 3-times larger in land than Cleveland (210 sq. miles to 77 sq. miles).

True enough.  This gets thrown around all the time as if it is supposed to delegitimize Columbus as a city.  Is Columbus supposed to apologize that its highest growth occurred after 1950 instead of around 1900?  Is Columbus supposed to apologize for a lack of geographic boundaries that allows for growth in 360 degrees?  And finally, is Columbus supposed to apologize for having an enlightened annexation policy since the 1950's that captures growth areas within the City of Columbus instead of ceding that growth to suburbs?

 

Also, I would go along with what Gramarye and dmerkow posted about Columbus.  And I don't mean to slight the non-3C cities, but this reply is already too much for me just discussing the 3C's. 

Thanks!

 

Looks like the worst is over for Youngstown.

 

Population loss:

1970 - 15.5%

1980 - 18%

1990 - 17.1%

2000 - 14.3%

2008 - 11.1%

^ If you think that's bad, look at Houston's city boundaries and MSA land area! lol

Land area is an important factor when determining "city" populations.  If it's not a factor, then Columbus could say that it's a larger city than Boston or San Francisco, that would course be laughable.  This is especially true when a "city" claims population growth via annexation.

 

As far as MSA's, if the Columbus MSA includes Delaware and Groveport, then the Cleveland MSA should include Akron because it's a shorter distance between Cleveland & Akron (39 miles) than it is between Delaware for Groveport (or any southern Columbus 'burb).  I'm not even talking about CSA's where the Cleveland CSA is twice the size as the Columbus CSA.

 

I haven't seen anyone in the this thread try to "de-ligitamize" Columbus as a city, just trying to bring perspective to the numbers, because we all know that the "numbers" don't always tell the whole story.

Land area is an important factor when determining "city" populations.  If it's not a factor, then Columbus could say that it's a larger city than Boston or San Francisco, that would course be laughable.  This is especially true when a "city" claims population growth via annexation.

 

Why is city in quotation marks? Columbus city IS larger than Boston city. You can't just arbitarily say that because the latter is more densely populated in the land area that it occupies that it somehow negates the former's raw population numbers.

 

Also, why does the annexation issue always come up when Columbus' population is discussed? Once again, the majority of the land annexed by the City of Columbus was UNDEVELOPED at the time of acquistion. Columbus didn't gobble up existing communities in an attempt to pad its population numbers. That's why you see cities like Whitehall, Upper Arlington, Bexley, Grandview Heights, etc partially or completely surrounded by Columbus.

 

As far as MSA's, if the Columbus MSA includes Delaware and Groveport, then the Cleveland MSA should include Akron because it's a shorter distance between Cleveland & Akron (39 miles) than it is between Delaware for Groveport (or any southern Columbus 'burb). 

 

RE:

 

Is Columbus suppost to apologize for a lack of geographic boundaries that allows for growth in 360 degrees? 

 

Columbus speads out in all directions. Cleveland can only spread Southwest, South, and Southeast. And Delaware to Groveport? That's like asking why Lorain and Independence should be in Cleveland's MSA. It just doesn't make any sense.

LOL Arguments, augments. lol Come on guys it is what it is. It can't be changed. Focus on the positive.

LOL Arguments, augments. lol Come on guys it is what it is. It can't be changed. Focus on the positive.

 

AGREED! 

Akron and Middletown also had impressive growth early last century.

It is interesting to basically track the cities that are clearly industrial because their growth comes heavily in the first part of the last century, whereas the suburban cities have all their major growth after 1960.

Can you add number for the entire State of Ohio?

 

 

Wow! Cleveland has taken a beating! 914,000 to 433,000? That's more than half the population! Makes me want to cry.... :-(

 

I suspect that one positive that this very interesting chart doesn't show; is that a very large percentage of the people who the cities in Northeast Ohio have lost, have not actually moved out of Northeast Ohio. Many of the Cleveland and Akron/Canton Suburbs have absorbed a large chunk of these people. Why is this positive? The cities do have an opportunity to draw these people back in if they get their acts together. And the region, as a whole, is kept viable. There are still over 4 million people in Northeast Ohio, they just don't live in the corp cities anymore. Last I heard, which wasn't that long ago; the 50 mile radius surrounding Akron was still considered the 7Th largest Megapolitan Area in the country with approximately 4.2 million people within that radius vs. 4.5 - 25 or 30 years ago. So while the cities have taken a major beating; the area as a whole hasn't done nearly as bad. The Suburban Sprawl that has occured, has actually saved region. If not for that sprawl, all of those people would have left the state completely.

Sprawl is caused to some degree by new household formation, which is always going on. Inner cities could capture more of this, maybe. 

 

The outmigration issue is a bit more complex, as there could be stable population, but a lot of outmigration for young adults, say 18-35 or 20-40 cohorts.  So one could have an aging population and somewhat high birthrate, but the people born would leave the area as young adults. This would have economic consequences as young adults are also the cohort that start families and buy houses, so less of a market for consumer goods if this cohort is leaving.

I'm sorry to bring this back to Youngstown again, but I think it probably applies to our other industrial cities.

 

I've read stories that, in the 1920's and 30's, there were "hotels" on the east end of downtown Youngstown that rented a single room, with one bed, to three men.  When one guy got up for work, the next guy would take the bed.  When he got up, the third guy slept.  When the third guy got up, it was time for the first guy to sleep again.

 

I bring this up because it seems to indicate that our cities were overcrowded and dirty when the population was at its highest.  And, we should keep that in mind when dreaming about the "glory days."

I'm sorry to bring this back to Youngstown again, but I think it probably applies to our other industrial cities.

 

I've read stories that, in the 1920's and 30's, there were "hotels" on the east end of downtown Youngstown that rented a single room, with one bed, to three men. When one guy got up for work, the next guy would take the bed. When he got up, the third guy slept. When the third guy got up, it was time for the first guy to sleep again.

 

I bring this up because it seems to indicate that our cities were overcrowded and dirty when the population was at its highest. And, we should keep that in mind when dreaming about the "glory days."

 

I think this is a very good point. Before WWII, most northern urban centers were not particularly pleasant places to live. Maybe half of homes were hooked up to sanitary sewers, and air pollution was a major problem, as was overcrowding. I'm sure we'd all love to see CLE have 900,000 people again, but certainly not under the same circumstances as 1930.

 

These data clearly show that the 1970s were probably the worst decade for Ohio and its cities. By this point, most inner city neighborhoods were in disrepair, probably not seeing much investment since the Depression, and were being given over to "low income housing". I would venture that much of the urban housing stock was not intended to last a century, and was (and is) in need of renovation or rebuilding.

Wow Cleveland is the most striking thing here for me.  It's definitely a boom or bust type of population growth.

I'd put a finer point on the dark time for Ohio. The census obscures it a bit, but it is really 1973-1983 or so. Roughly from the beginning of the first oil shock through the beginning of economic growth and declining inflation after the 82 midterm election, the entire industrial midwest went through an economic dislocation that we essentially haven't recovered from.

^

If one graphs out metro area numbers one can see how things start to flatline after 1970, which indicates the move into a new era re economic and population growth. 

I'd put a finer point on the dark time for Ohio. The census obscures it a bit, but it is really 1973-1983 or so. Roughly from the beginning of the first oil shock through the beginning of economic growth and declining inflation after the 82 midterm election, the entire industrial midwest went through an economic dislocation that we essentially haven't recovered from.

 

I wonder how much this has to do with the baby boom generation too. They were coming of age in the late 60s and early 70s, and with increased mobility and college educations, primed for mobility. Perhaps Ohio kids were looking south and west for their futures, especially as the blue collar jobs were disappearing around them?

The baby bust runs roughly from 1965 to about 1980 - give or take a couple years on each side. I would guess Ohio would probably have had a harder bust than some other places due to the decline in the industrial economy and the high numbers of Catholics whose fertility patterns changed rather dramatically during that era.

Can you add number for the entire State of Ohio?

 

State of Ohio:

1900 - 4,157,545

1910 - 4,767,121

1920 - 5,759,394

1930 - 6,646,697

1940 - 6,907,612

1950 - 7,946,627

1960 - 9,706,397

1970 - 10,652,017

1980 - 10,797,630

1990 - 10,847,115

2000 - 11,353,140

2008 estimate - 11,485,910

 

 

What the data we have been discussing doesn't show well is that the biggest losses were actually in the Southeastern part of the state. That part of the state has really been losing population, whereas most of the rest of the state is stable to slightly growing. The towns of Ohio River and a lot of the old coal country has shrunk far more than even places like the old inner cities of the big cities. I guess Youngstown would be the northern edge of that development.

if all villages and towns were included and anything is active at all in an otherwise stagnant state population its going to be the march toward suburbia. ugh.

 

OK, I'm going to be out of the country (or at least state) for about the next 10 months.  For many little reasons, I want to make sure I am counted in the 2010 city of Cleveland census.

 

Could someone give me some info on how to go about this/who should I contact?

 

I'm really curious to see what the 2010 census shows though.  California has taken a beating and many are fleeing.  I don't know if families are moving back to Ohio, but they sure are showing up here in Milwaukee.  I can thinks of at least a dozen new families in my neighborhood who've moved from Cali. 

 

OK, I'm going to be out of the country (or at least state) for about the next 10 months.  For many little reasons, I want to make sure I am counted in the 2010 city of Cleveland census.

 

Could someone give me some info on how to go about this/who should I contact?

 

 

800-923-8282

I'm really curious to see what the 2010 census shows though. California has taken a beating and many are fleeing. I don't know if families are moving back to Ohio, but they sure are showing up here in Milwaukee. I can thinks of at least a dozen new families in my neighborhood who've moved from Cali.

 

 

I just rented out one of my houses in Cleveland to a family from Redondo Beach, Cali. 

I'm sorry to bring this back to Youngstown again, but I think it probably applies to our other industrial cities....

I bring this up because it seems to indicate that our cities were overcrowded and dirty when the population was at its highest. And, we should keep that in mind when dreaming about the "glory days."

 

I think this is a very good point. Before WWII, most northern urban centers were not particularly pleasant places to live. Maybe half of homes were hooked up to sanitary sewers, and air pollution was a major problem, as was overcrowding. I'm sure we'd all love to see CLE have 900,000 people again, but certainly not under the same circumstances as 1930. ...

In the teens, my immigrant grandfather lived in this neighborhood of substandard unhealthy housing that was referred to as "the monkey's nest".  It is a bit east the Rayen and Federal Street crossing and was cleared and turned into warehouse space. 

^

where did your grandfather immigrate from?

California has taken a beating and many are fleeing.

 

...this has been happening since before the reccession.  White Flight on a statewide scale.

The demographic decline of Appalachian Ohio.  One wonders how this parallels what happend in Kentucky and West Virginia. 

 

Probably a few things going on...automation and decline of mining employment in rural areas at first, then the industrial decline of places like Steubenville and Portsmouth later? 

^

where did your grandfather immigrate from?

Ukraine.  The Holy Trinity Ukranian Church is near Federal and Rayen.  The monkey's nest was actually west of there, not east,  I think they called that corner the "Westlake Crossing".  The rail line there ran on the old canal bed.

Honestly, I think Ohio has several things going for it, in the long run. One is ample water. I truly think there is a water shortage problem developing in the west. Also, Ohio has River, Lake, Railroad, Port access to the ocean, an already developed highway system and a major Trucking Industry Presence. Ohio also has International, Regional and Small Freight and Commercial Airports. Ohio has a top quality College Network that is heavily involved in Research and Development and of-course, World Class Hospitals who are also heavily involved in Research and Development. Add all this to a Low Cost of Living and I think Ohio will be making it's comeback, soon. I'm very optimistic.

The problem is that Ohio (and most of the Rust Belt) have industrial economy sized populations in a post-industrial nation. The challenge isn't that we can't do good things in the state, but that we no longer need the number of people we used to, to do the same things, which means we need to do a lot more stuff to keep the economy chugging along.

enlightened annexation? oh please. thats just sprawl without a suburb's name on it. don't paint a cats azz.  :roll:  :laugh:

 

and dont give me that acreage isnt important either, because urban density is way more important than total population.  :whip:

 

but more importantly, was it smarter? well if you look at the other two c's losses over the past 50 years of columbus annexation practice, then if not exactly enlightened hell yes it most certainly was smarter! columbus doesnt have to carp about regional cooperation, it already does it (and not just by controlling water or consolidated city services, but including additional agreements like win-win negotiations for the area schools too).

 

bottom line is its over and there is no turning back, columbus city will be sitting pretty on the 'top of the pops' in ohio forever. it wouldnt surprise me if the metro outgrew the other c's much sooner than people expect. and you can bet the columbus metro will most certainly outgrow the other guys in due time...maybe not until the city limits abut springfield, but it'll happen!  :laugh:

 

 

 

Seriously, the sprawl was going to happen.  There was no annexation policy or lack thereof that would have prevented it.  The only things that would have prevented it would have been direct, heavy-handed government intervention at the state or even national level.  Even had the interstate highway system never become a federal project, and no state ever undertaken their own version of it simply within their own borders, some sprawl would still have happened, though it would have obviously been lesser in scope.

When do they start counting? Jan 1st? When will it end and when will we see the numbers? 2011? What should we expect to find? Will Las Vegas had lost 28,000 souls since 2007 like some have said?

 

Interesting times.

You should start seeing teasers and volunteer information after Thanksgiving.

 

The census count starts on April 1 and  by December 31 it needs to be on the Presidents desk. 

 

In March 2011, the information is posted/distributed.

Sen. Brown Encourages Ohioans to be Counted at Cleveland Rally on 2010 Census

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) participated in the "Non-Profits Count!" rally in Cleveland on Monday. Sponsored by the Cleveland Foodbank, Greater Cleveland United Way, and Neighborhood Connections, the rally sought to raise awareness about the importance of all Ohioans being counted in the 2010 decennial census.

 

"In Cuyahoga County, if there is just a two percent undercount of the county's population, more than $300 million could be lost over ten years," Brown said at today's rally. "The Census determines the future of our state. It determines the resources, services, and funding we'll have available to ensure our children grow up with the education and medical care they need. It determines the funding we'll have to keep our communities safe and ensure our small businesses can grow."

 

http://www.bignews.biz/?id=849427&keys=SenatorSherrodBrown-Census-education-transportation

I would not be surprised to see a big push to count college students at their campi rather than their (parents') homes.

 

Here's why: this would increase the reported population of college towns, giving them more electoral impact. Since undergrads typically vote absentee at home (if at all), this will give the votes of professors and grad students (usually liberal), more weight.

 

I'd also expect to see some gaming involving foreclosures, with people counted both at their old homes (since vacated) and where they are currently living, and the homeless population greatly exaggerated.

 

Perhaps even some manipulation involving graveyards, a Chicago Machine tradition.

 

Illegal immigrants should not be counted....period.

 

It is not in the interest of the establishment to make it easy for college kids to vote. Just like it's not in the interest of the establishment to make one election day a year a national holiday.

I would not be surprised to see a big push to count college students at their campi rather than their (parents') homes.

 

I think college kids are counted at their campus.  Maybe i'm the only one here that was in college in 2000, but i was counted in my apartment, not at my home.  Remember, it's a snapshot...it reflects exactly where people live at that time.

 

I was pissed, because Michigan had recently passed a law requiring people to vote in the district where their driver's license placed them.  Now, mostly it's not a big deal...except it was written by State Senator Mike Rogers who was a republican running for Congress in a district dominated by a college campus.  Then i was counted in his district for census purposes (ie money) but couldn't vote there.