America’s luxury apartment boom is gentrification on steroids

WRITTEN BY

Christopher Groskopf

May 20, 2016

 

Across the country a wave of dual-income couples and down-sizing baby-boomers are skipping home ownership and choosing apartment living instead. These elective nomads are pushing rents in American cities through the roof. Meanwhile, other renters—who have a median household income less than half that of homeowners—are finding that fewer and fewer homes fit their budget.

 

Developers have responded by flooding the market with new apartments—nearly 250,000 were completed in 2015 alone. However, those who hope the building boom will provide shelter for the huddled masses are in for a nasty surprise: Three out of every four new apartment buildings are luxury designs targeted at high-end renters.

 

MORE:

http://qz.com/684561/the-luxury-apartment-boom-goes-way-beyond-new-york-and-dc/

America’s luxury apartment boom is gentrification on steroids

WRITTEN BY

Christopher Groskopf

May 20, 2016

 

Across the country a wave of dual-income couples and down-sizing baby-boomers are skipping home ownership and choosing apartment living instead. These elective nomads are pushing rents in American cities through the roof. Meanwhile, other renters—who have a median household income less than half that of homeowners—are finding that fewer and fewer homes fit their budget.

 

Developers have responded by flooding the market with new apartments—nearly 250,000 were completed in 2015 alone. However, those who hope the building boom will provide shelter for the huddled masses are in for a nasty surprise: Three out of every four new apartment buildings are luxury designs targeted at high-end renters.

 

MORE:

http://qz.com/684561/the-luxury-apartment-boom-goes-way-beyond-new-york-and-dc/

 

This pretty much falls under "no kidding".  I called the NYC supertowers "vertical sprawl" a long time ago and I doubt I was first.

 

There's been an effort to sell people on living in denser neighborhoods, and to a significant degree that's been successful.  What effort there has been to sell people on living near people with different values has been much less successful.  Developers have figured out that you can do one without the other, and sold people on it.  That's why certain neighborhoods (downtown and UC) are booming in Cleveland, but the rents are high and public accessibility is often limited.

 

The fact that it was Heinen's, not Dave's or Aldi's or even GE that located downtown is significant.

While Columbus may in actuality have passed Indianapolis already, Forth Worth and Charlotte could end up passing Columbus in the next 4-5 years based on growth rates since the 2010 census.  Columbus could pass San Francisco at some point, but that would almost entirely be because SF proper is only 47 sq miles.

 

Ohio as a whole had net migration of -10,604 (natural increase provided an offset so total population change was positive).  As Cleveland.com pointed out, basically all the substantial population growth is happening in central Ohio.

While Columbus may in actuality have passed Indianapolis already, Forth Worth and Charlotte could end up passing Columbus in the next 4-5 years based on growth rates since the 2010 census.  Columbus could pass San Francisco at some point, but that would almost entirely be because SF proper is only 47 sq miles.

 

Ohio as a whole had net migration of -10,604 (natural increase provided an offset so total population change was positive).  As Cleveland.com pointed out, basically all the substantial population growth is happening in central Ohio.

 

Austin and Charlotte are much bigger than Columbus in square miles, so it goes both ways, really.  Indianapolis consolidated with most of its home county, or Columbus would've past it decades ago.  Long term, Columbus will definitely pass Indy if it has not already, and then perhaps SF and Jacksonville.  Ultimately, it may end up in the same position is is now, 15th largest, or perhaps move up one to 14th.  We'll have to see how the growth rates change over time with Columbus and the cites that surround it in the rankings. 

 

Ohio's net out-migration is much better than it used to be, when it was regularly losing 3x that many people per year.  Also, in the 2000s Ohio was underestimated, and that is probably the case again now.

 

 

And actually, the Census does comparative population by area size.  Columbus would still easily be the largest city at 80 square miles.

 

 

 

how can that be true? cols has just over twice the population (850cols/388cle=2.2) and almost 3x the area of cle & cin (210/75=2.8 ). so if the cle population holds, and yeah thats a big if *sigh*, but if so, and if cols stops annexing, cols would have to go just a parma or so over a million in population to top that density. cinci is similar no doubt.

 

You are probably making the common mistake of assuming that much of Columbus' population is out near and along its boundaries, but the reality is the opposite.  Most of its population is closer to the core, just like in Cincinnati and Cleveland.  As the guy with the data mentioned earlier, I have personally gone over the numbers in numerous ways, from measuring different square mile areas to going down to the census block level.  In all the ways I have looked at in regards to city limits, I have found that just 1 way does Columbus not come out on top- in the CBD.  Columbus easily has the lowest Downtown population of the 3- or did so as of 2010.  Go just outside of that area, though, and the story is much different.  And if anyone feels like I have unfairly manipulated numbers, they are free to go do them themselves.  The Census offers all kinds of ways to do it if one is willing to put in the effort. 

 

At the current rate of growth, Columbus will hit 1 million before 2030- probably between 2026-2028.  The fact that Cleveland's population continues to fall, unfortunately, means that the density gap is closing all that much faster.  As far as Cincinnati, Columbus passed it sometime in 2014 or 2015.

 

What are you referring to Columbus passed Cincinnati back in 2014 or 2015?  I just looked it up and the MSA for 2015 Cincinnati 2,157,719 and 2015 Columbus 2,021,632 and 2015 Cleveland at 2,060,810.  Now if you want to talk CSA (combined MSA regions), not sure why, but Columbus' CSA 2,424,831 covers a huge amount of area in Ohio and covers 8 MSA areas.  The areas aren't even near the city of Columbus and very disconnected.  Then you have Cleveland's CSA which covers 7 MSA regions at 3,493,596 which is 1 million more than Columbus.  If someone wants to counts CSA's vs MSA's that number would be hard to cross.  Then Cincinnati's CSA is not much different than it's MSA at 2,216,735 because it only covers 3 MSA regions.  Although the Census Bureau stated that Cincinnati's and Dayton will be considered one area in the next 1-3 years (whenever it is updated) as they have already grown together as one metropolitan area.  The suburbs between Dayton and Cincinnati are booming areas. 

What are you referring to Columbus passed Cincinnati back in 2014 or 2015?

 

I think jbcmh81[/member] was referring to population density within the city proper,

 

CLE, 388,072 pop / 77.7 sqmi = 4,994 pop/sqmi

CIN, 298,550 pop / 77.9 sqmi = 3,832 pop/sqmi

COL, 850,106 pop / 217.2 sqmi = 3,914 pop/sqmi

The pitfall of viewing all urban issues (like gentrification) through the lens of about 5 mega-cities. https://t.co/pV9OPN2Ipo

 

Older data, but if anything, the disparities have worsened. Gentrification is not one urban Ohio's problems. https://t.co/O3GwaidIUz

I'm not sure where to place this question and it may not seem like a good question to some but when the square miles of Cleveland's land was determined (77.7 sq.mi) i'm certain that includes the highway for the city proper. That being said when it comes to livable land  the amount of square milage surely shrinks to a smaller level which would boost the density numbers to higher that the 4994. My only question is how many square miles of land does the highway cover? Does anyone know because I couldn't find anything on it. I would guess the amount of land that isn't covered by the highway is about 60-65 sq. miles.

Don't know why that would be relevant since the amount of land devoted to cars (streets, roads, parking etc) contribute to the decline of livability. BTW, in a typical American city, about 1/3 of its land is devoted to cars.

The typical population density comparison is number of people per square mile. It would be interesting to compare number of cars per square mile. Here's some data from the CIA world fact book.

 

United States

Population: 324 million

4,000,000 km of paved roads

 

Indonesia

Population 258 million

500,000 km of paved roads

and the correct answer is.... roads cover 246,341,312 square feet of the City of Cleveland!

 

This link may be of some interest to you:

http://www.countyplanning.us/projects/urban-tree-canopy-assessment/downloads/

Don't know why that would be relevant since the amount of land devoted to cars (streets, roads, parking etc) contribute to the decline of livability. BTW, in a typical American city, about 1/3 of its land is devoted to cars.

I really was just curious as to how much land in square miles is left that can be available for housing/commercial use. I always wondered how many square miles of land highways took up in Cleveland proper. Weird? Maybe. Pointless? Maybe. But it interested me but never knew how to find it. Thank you for telling me that answer though...

and the correct answer is.... roads cover 246,341,312 square feet of the City of Cleveland!

 

This link may be of some interest to you:

http://www.countyplanning.us/projects/urban-tree-canopy-assessment/downloads/

 

That's sick!

here is something i saw -- ohio is still doing right by its jews - losing some (to boca? lol), but continually holding down 8th place in the states since at least 1971:

 

 

Ohio – Jewish population

 

Total= 143,715 (2015) ; 158,560 (1971) ; chg (1971-2015)= - 9,945

Rank=8th

 

 

>1000

 

Athens

Lima

Hamilton-Middletown-Oxford

Zanesville

Marion

Mansfield

Lorain

Wooster

Elyria-Oberlin

Sandusky-Fremont-Norwalk

 

 

1,000-4,999

 

Akron-Kent

Canton-New Philadelphia

Toledo-Bowling Green

Youngstown-Warren

Dayton

 

 

Columbus-Franklin co (25,500)

Cincinnati-Hamilton co (27,000)

Cleveland-Cuyahoga co (80,800)

 

 

More:

http://www.jewishdatabank.org/Studies/downloadFile.cfm?FileID=3335

 

Cleveland's orthodox communities probably erase any other losses. They reproduce in large quantities it seems. Every family I see walking down Taylor or Green has like 5 kids

That's very interesting. I was curious to not see Dayton on the list, and my phone was taking forever to load the full report. I googled it and found a source that said 5,500 in the late 90s, maybe around 5,000 today? I know they don't have a huge community, but it's probably in the middle ground between the C's and the 1,000-4,999 group. NE Ohio really dominates though- unsurprising given the huge wave of Eastern European immigrants the region received in the early 1900s.

^Yeah, it seems Metro Dayton's has around 5,000 Jewish folks.

 

http://lubavitch.com/news/article/2022838/Jewish-Federation-of-Greater-Ohio-Awards-Chabad-Representative-For-Creativity.html

---

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/judaica/ejud_0002_0005_0_05001.html

whoops i had left dayton off, so i added it

this is from the bloomberg days dec 2013 & sez nyc is expected to grow the size of a columbus within 30yrs (783K) between 2010-2040 (!), or from 8.2M+ to 9M+:

 

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/data-maps/nyc-population/projections_report_2010_2040.pdf

That sounds like a low ball estimate that could get the city into trouble if they plan around that number. The population in 2015 is already estimated to be 8,550,405 people up from 8,175,133 in 2010, already surpassing their estimate for 2020 by nearly 100,000 people.

 

If that rate of growth were to continue that would mean in 2040 there would be 10,426,765 people in NYC. That's unlikely though as there are factors that resulted in higher than normal growth from 2010-2015 that aren't likely to be repeated.

 

If growth slowed to half what it was in that five year period the population would grow by 1,313,452 from 2010 to 2040 putting the population at 9,488,585 people which seems to be more aligned with cultural trends.

^Rest assured the city's demographers aren't still looking at Bloomberg-era population projections. In any case, there's no meaningful population-based planning in NYC, so wouldn't matter even if they were.

Correct population estimates will be critical to adding subway capacity into the future (because that will happen, yep).

 

It's crazy to me that the Bloomberg administration thought the 30 year period from 2010-2040 would see only around 2/3 as much growth as the period from 1980-2010. The city in the 80s and 90s had some seriously massive problems that hindered its potential growth and western culture hadn't truly dived into the "back to the cities" movement yet. If come 2040 there are 10,000,000 New Yorkers that wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.

If you want to think about something pretty depressing...Florida's population has grown from 2 million to 17 million since 1950 while Ohio's has only grown by 1 million.  So Florida has had roughly the population of the NYC metro area move there from mostly New England and the Great Lakes states, all to their detriment. 

If you want to think about something pretty depressing...Florida's population has grown from 2 million to 17 million since 1950 while Ohio's has only grown by 1 million.  So Florida has had roughly the population of the NYC metro area move there from mostly New England and the Great Lakes states, all to their detriment. 

 

Actually that is not true. Ohio had slightly less than 8 million people in 1950, and now has over 11.5 million, so that is a growth of over 3.5 million, not the greatest but much more than one million.

 

1970 figures would be closer to what you are comparing, with Ohio only gaining slightly less than one million people in the last 45 years while Florida has gone from 6.7 million to over 20 million per 2015 estimates.

 

Also not all of Ohio has grown (or not grown) equally. The Columbus metro area has just about quadrupled since 1950.

It's also not really worth anyone's time to compare states that grew at completely different periods of time. Sure, Ohio has only grown by about half since 1950 whereas Florida and the rest of the sunbelt have exploded in that same period, but that doesn't really mean much. Ohio was already a very large, established state by 1950. Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, etc. weren't at all. If Ohio had followed the trajectory (in terms of percentage of growth) Florida went through from 1950-2015 we'd have 58,127,213 Ohioans in this country. For very obvious reasons that sounds ridiculous.

 

If we HAD managed that impossible feat and our metro areas were proportional to what they are now, we'd have three Chicago-sized metro areas in the state.

I was going by memory with those numbers so I might have been off, but the bottom line is that Florida has seen explosive population growth at the expensive much of the rest of the country.  So all that electric grid an water and sewers and roads and all the rest is sitting idle, plus hundreds of thousands of homes and other buildings are sitting vacant or have been bulldozed so that a certain percentage can indulge in their Florida fantasy. 

 

Also, we might see a slight nudge of high-end citizens to vacation homes and retirement homes in Cuba in upcoming decades, but not a large-scale migration of the middle class.  Why?  Because the U.S. government and the states insure oceanfront property against wind and floods that no for-profit company will.  Then FEMA shows up and bails out everything that government insurance didn't cover. Florida, the Gulf Coat, and the Georgia and Carolina coasts would never have been developed to the extent that they have been if not for the government insurance the FEMA bailouts. 

 

I was going by memory with those numbers so I might have been off, but the bottom line is that Florida has seen explosive population growth at the expensive much of the rest of the country.  So all that electric grid an water and sewers and roads and all the rest is sitting idle, plus hundreds of thousands of homes and other buildings are sitting vacant or have been bulldozed so that a certain percentage can indulge in their Florida fantasy. 

 

Also, we might see a slight nudge of high-end citizens to vacation homes and retirement homes in Cuba in upcoming decades, but not a large-scale migration of the middle class.  Why?  Because the U.S. government and the states insure oceanfront property against wind and floods that no for-profit company will.  Then FEMA shows up and bails out everything that government insurance didn't cover. Florida, the Gulf Coat, and the Georgia and Carolina coasts would never have been developed to the extent that they have been if not for the government insurance the FEMA bailouts. 

 

 

I did not mean to come off as nitpicky in my response to your post, sorry if it came off that way. And climate change is gonna be rough for Florida and supporting the vulnerable development there sucks I agree.

 

But in a way, I would rather see a renewal starting in Ohio(maybe due to less risk from disaster/fresh water/etc) now...I mean if Ohio did have tons of growth in the 70's, 80's and 90's...what would that growth have looked like?-probably just tons of sprawl. Look at the sprawl that has happened with the low growth rate that we have had...populations barely growing or actually declining in areas but the built up area doubling in places. I think the cities would be in the same boat they are now, maybe not as bad, but just surrounded by even more and larger sprawling suburbs and exurbs exerting even more influence than what we have now. A would rather have an improving economy and a lower growth rate with smarter growth NOW. It is about the economy now in Ohio.

I think the Ohio cities would probably mirror Detroit, Chicago and Minneapolis. Those regions all grew pretty well during that period.

 

In general we'd probably just have double the number of  seventies split level and eighties colonial subdivisions and more mall and office park sprawl.

I think the Ohio cities would probably mirror Detroit, Chicago and Minneapolis. Those regions all grew pretty well during that period.

 

In general we'd probably just have double the number of  seventies split level and eighties colonial subdivisions and more mall and office park sprawl.

Again not to be picky, but that is not really the case, especially with Detroit. Metro was 4.5 million in 1970, 4.3 million in 2010. Using CSA, it is at about the same population as 1970, about 5.2  million.  This is more like Ohio cities really. The growth there was not in population but in sprawl.  Chicagoland and metro twin cities both had good growth post war and also post 1970.

 

 

According to the census bureau,the Cincinnati msa includes 4,800 square miles while the columbus msa is 3,169 square miles,the csa for columbus would be close in area to cincy but larger population.The latest estimates project the current msa areas to be cbus around 2.6 million and cincy 2.3 million in 20 years.Now even if the cincy csa includes the depressed counties of Montgomery and possibly Greene,to the csa,Clark county would be added to columbus csa.and cincy would have a huge less densely populated csa,which would still be smaller than the columbus csa in perhaps the next census.We cannot underestimate the growth and importance of the columbus region to ohio,the demographics also will favor central ohio.

 

 

Do we know how much of the columbus metro growth is from other parts of Ohio (rural + Cleveland & Cincinnati) and how much is from outside the state? 

I'd like to see those numbers too. If we could net out the other major Ohio cities/counties vs. rural that would also be nice.

According to the census bureau,the Cincinnati msa includes 4,800 square miles while the columbus msa is 3,169 square miles,the csa for columbus would be close in area to cincy but larger population.The latest estimates project the current msa areas to be cbus around 2.6 million and cincy 2.3 million in 20 years.Now even if the cincy csa includes the depressed counties of Montgomery and possibly Greene,to the csa,Clark county would be added to columbus csa.and cincy would have a huge less densely populated csa,which would still be smaller than the columbus csa in perhaps the next census.We cannot underestimate the growth and importance of the columbus region to ohio,the demographics also will favor central ohio.

 

 

 

Not sure where you're getting your information, but according to Wiki (which is pretty good on this), the Columbus MSA is already larger area wise than the Cincinnati MSA.  The Columbus MSA is 4851 Square Miles, and includes the following: 

 

Delaware (457 sq mi)

Fairfield (509)

Franklin (544)

Hocking (424)

Licking (687)

Madison (467)

Morrow (407)

Perry (412)

Pickaway (507)

Union (437)

 

The Cincinnati MSA is only 4464 square miles, and includes the following:

 

Hamilton (413)

Butler (470)

Warren (407)

Clermont (460J)

Brown (493)

 

KY:

 

Boone (256)

Bracken (209)

Campbell (159)

Gallatin (105)

Grant (261)

Kenton (164)

Pendleton (282)

 

Indiana: 

 

Dearborn (307)

Franklin (391)

Ohio (87)

 

 

If you move out to CSA, the Cincinnati CSA adds two counties:  Clinton in Ohio (412 square miles) and Mason in Kentucky (246 square miles).  The Columbus CSA includes Ross, Fayette, Guernsey, Knox, Logan, Marion, and Muskingum counties, adding over 3700 square miles. 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_metropolitan_area

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_metropolitan_area,_Ohio

 

Note, the math is wrong on the totals of these, unless the Census bureau is somehow only counting parts of the Columbus counties in the MSA (which I don't think they do).  It shows a higher land area for the Cincinnati MSA than is correct, and a far lower one for Columbus MSA than is correct, based on the underlying numbers.  I clicked through to each counties' page, got their land area, and added it up to get totals. 

 

Which makes sense; Ohio counties are typically about 400-500 square miles or so, and Columbus has 10 of those counties in the MSA. 

Do we know how much of the columbus metro growth is from other parts of Ohio (rural + Cleveland & Cincinnati) and how much is from outside the state?

 

It's a bit of a process to work it out.  The Census does a county by county domestic migration map, but they are estimates, and I think the last one available was for 2013.  I do know that the general breakdown for the Columbus metro is 50% natural growth, 25% foreign and 25% domestic, so right off the bat, about 75% of the growth has nothing to do with the rest of the state.  Let me work out the numbers for the other 25% and I'll post back.

 

 

Maybe take out Pickaway, Madison, Licking, Morrow and possibly Union, though. Nobody's moving to those counties from other rural counties (or especially the other 2Cs), except maybe Scioto to Pickaway. Their growth is going to be much more natural than say, Clintonville's and will skew things away from the parts of the metro that will actually be important to what we are curious about -- Franklin and Delaware Counties.

Do we know how much of the columbus metro growth is from other parts of Ohio (rural + Cleveland & Cincinnati) and how much is from outside the state?

 

Getting more detailed than this would take more time. (Note that I discounted all margins of error, assuming it's an overall wash.)

 

Estimated annual net migrations to Franklin County:

From other counties in Ohio to Franklin County:

6,115

 

From non-Ohio locations in the USA  to Franklin County:

-587

 

From Puerto Rico:

265

 

From foreign countries:

7,417* (Don't have numbers for emigration to foreign countries; assuming zero below, a bit optimistic)

 

So Ohio makes up 46.3% of the net in-migration to Franklin. This doesn't account for whether a county is in Franklin's MSA, and it's possible non-Ohio domestic migration to the MSA is in the black, but it's in the red for Franklin.

 

Source: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/2013/county-to-county-migration-2009-2013/county-to-county-2009-2013-ins-outs-nets-gross.xlsx

 

 

Ohio MSAs to Columbus MSA, net migrations:

Akron: 518

Canton: 483

Cincinnati: 1865

Cleveland: 3380

Dayton: 770

Lima: 630

Mansfield: -293

Springfield: 93

Toledo: 451

Steubenville: -145

Youngstown: 790

(Total: 8,024)

 

MSAs which include part of OH:

Wheeling: 51

Huntington: 158

 

Source: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/2013/metro-to-metro-migration/metro-to-metro-2009-2013.xlsx

 

Remember, the 8,024 is for the Columbus MSA whereas the 6,115 number is for Franklin County. Additionally, non-Ohio counties are included in Cincinnati's MSA, which could have some impact as those would be included in the non-Ohio USA migration in the top figures.

 

All of these calculations use estimates from the 2009-2013 American Community Survey.

 

Edit: I added the disclaimer that no data is included for emigration to foreign countries, so it's assumed to be zero. Which is a bit optimistic, but it's the best I can do without throwing foreign immigration out completely.

Nobody's moving to those counties from other rural counties (or especially the other 2Cs), except maybe Scioto to Pickaway.

 

How do you know this?

Nobody's moving to those counties from other rural counties (or especially the other 2Cs), except maybe Scioto to Pickaway.

 

How do you know this?

 

I know that there is virtually no population growth happening in at least Madison County. Probably very little in Pickaway. Not sure about the others though.

Do we know how much of the columbus metro growth is from other parts of Ohio (rural + Cleveland & Cincinnati) and how much is from outside the state?

 

It's a bit of a process to work it out.  The Census does a county by county domestic migration map, but they are estimates, and I think the last one available was for 2013.  I do know that the general breakdown for the Columbus metro is 50% natural growth, 25% foreign and 25% domestic, so right off the bat, about 75% of the growth has nothing to do with the rest of the state.  Let me work out the numbers for the other 25% and I'll post back.

 

 

Do we know how much of the columbus metro growth is from other parts of Ohio (rural + Cleveland & Cincinnati) and how much is from outside the state?

 

Getting more detailed than this would take more time. (Note that I discounted all margins of error, assuming it's an overall wash.)

 

Estimated annual net migrations to Franklin County:

From other counties in Ohio to Franklin County:

6,115

 

From non-Ohio locations in the USA  to Franklin County:

-587

 

From Puerto Rico:

265

 

From foreign countries:

7,417

 

So Ohio makes up 46.3% of the net in-migration to Franklin. This doesn't account for whether a county is in Franklin's MSA, and it's possible non-Ohio domestic migration to the MSA is in the black, but it's in the red for Franklin.

 

Source: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/2013/county-to-county-migration-2009-2013/county-to-county-2009-2013-ins-outs-nets-gross.xlsx

 

 

Ohio MSAs to Columbus MSA, net migrations:

Akron: 518

Canton: 483

Cincinnati: 1865

Cleveland: 3380

Dayton: 770

Lima: 630

Mansfield: -293

Springfield: 93

Toledo: 451

Steubenville: -145

Youngstown: 790

(Total: 8,024)

 

MSAs which include part of OH:

Wheeling: 51

Huntington: 158

 

Source: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geographic-mobility/2013/metro-to-metro-migration/metro-to-metro-2009-2013.xlsx

 

Remember, the 8,024 is for the Columbus MSA whereas the 6,115 number is for Franklin County. Additionally, non-Ohio counties are included in Cincinnati's MSA, which could have some impact as those would be included in the non-Ohio USA migration in the top figures.

 

All of these calculations use estimates from the 2009-2013 American Community Survey.

 

 

 

so we have 25% and about 45%..for domestic migration...which is correct?

so we have 25% and about 45%..for domestic migration...which is correct?

 

If it's true that 50% of the population growth is natural (births minus deaths), then we're looking at not 45% but 45% of 50%, or 22.5%...which isn't far from jbcmh's figure.

 

The 45% your addressing is 45% of net in-migration, not 45% of population growth (which is what jbcmh was talking about).

 

Edit: Also remember jbcmh was talking MSA and my top figures were for Franklin County, so there should be some difference there.

so we have 25% and about 45%..for domestic migration...which is correct?

 

If it's true that 50% of the population growth is natural (births minus deaths), then we're looking at not 45% but 45% of 50%, or 22.5%...which isn't far from jbcmh's figure.

 

The 45% your addressing is 45% of net in-migration, not 45% of population growth (which is what jbcmh was talking about).

 

Edit: Also remember jbcmh was talking MSA and my top figures were for Franklin County, so there should be some difference there.

 

OK thanks for clearing that up.

Ohio MSAs to Columbus MSA, net migrations:

Akron: 518

Canton: 483

Cincinnati: 1865

Cleveland: 3380

Dayton: 770

Lima: 630

Mansfield: -293

Springfield: 93

Toledo: 451

Steubenville: -145

Youngstown: 790

(Total: 8,024)

 

MSAs which include part of OH:

Wheeling: 51

Huntington: 158

 

 

What would compel people to move from these other place to Columbus? Are they attending Ohio State?

What would compel people to move from these other place to Columbus? Are they attending Ohio State?

 

Some are, probably.

 

But much more likely? It's because Columbus is a major metropolitan area with a fast-growing, diversified economy.

 

Basically: jobs, jobs, jobs.

A lot of natives leave Columbus since it has no rail transit. If you suggest this in places other than UO, a bunch of O-Tools swoop in and shout you down.

A lot of natives leave Columbus since it has no rail transit. If you suggest this in places other than UO, a bunch of O-Tools swoop in and shout you down.

 

A lot of Columbus is starting to get significantly more expensive than Cincinnati.  This is partly because there is half or less than half of the prewar neighborhoods that people now want to live in, but I understand that most of  the suburbs are getting more expensive, too.  At some point a couple with roots split between each city is going to choose to live in Cincinnati for lower housing costs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, California's population is expected to be retarded by water restrictions and sky-high real estate costs, but it's still going to grow like crazy as compared to anywhere in the east.  What's interesting to think about is that the California HSR, which won't be operating in any form before 2030, will turn the god-forsaken small cities of Bakerfield, Modesto, and Fresno into viable places to live and each might grow significantly.  It seems like 2035 at the earliest before HSR trains are in daily operation between San Francisco and LA. 

A lot of natives leave Columbus since it has no rail transit. If you suggest this in places other than UO, a bunch of O-Tools swoop in and shout you down.

 

A lot of Columbus is starting to get significantly more expensive than Cincinnati.  This is partly because there is half or less than half of the prewar neighborhoods that people now want to live in, but I understand that most of  the suburbs are getting more expensive, too.  At some point a couple with roots split between each city is going to choose to live in Cincinnati for lower housing costs.

 

 

 

Not necessarily. If a couple is split but the one in Columbus has a job that pays higher, is more stable, or has growth potential, they would likely pick Columbus. I expect the same for Cincinnati. It really depends on the situation. People don't necessarily land in a city due to cost of living, if that were true then cities like NYC, Boston, Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco would begin losing population. It all depends on economy and living preferences. I wouldn't expect to see Cincinnati to begin booming as a result of Columbus becoming more expensive.

 

I am a Chicago native who moved to Columbus for school and solid chunk of my friends are from outside the area as well. They represent  Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, and Denver. They all landed here for a job or school, yes they love where they are from but most have grown a lot of Columbus civic pride. Most of us have stayed despite rising cost of living, as wages and salaries seem to be increasing to meet the bar. Do I think this city is still as affordable as every article and city leader likes to tout? No but I do think it has a strong enough economy to keep up the influx of people despite rising costs of living.

A lot of natives leave Columbus since it has no rail transit. If you suggest this in places other than UO, a bunch of O-Tools swoop in and shout you down.

 

A lot of Columbus is starting to get significantly more expensive than Cincinnati.  This is partly because there is half or less than half of the prewar neighborhoods that people now want to live in, but I understand that most of  the suburbs are getting more expensive, too.  At some point a couple with roots split between each city is going to choose to live in Cincinnati for lower housing costs.

 

 

 

Pretty much everything is getting more expensive except Linden and the "Uncool Crescent" running from the West Side, down to the South Side and back up through the Far East Side. Even old town Groveport where I live, is getting out of hand fast. Even a year ago there was way more for sale under 130K than now. There are literally thousands of warehouse and light industrial jobs within 3 miles. Columbus feasted on the flesh of Ohio's small town assembly jobs leaving only the bones.

 

Oddly, Lancaster also has TONS of factory work available... almost all resumes I receive from males have entry-level factory work on them. It pays poorly since they can get away with paying people from further south and east in Appalachian Ohio nothing.

I ran the numbers in more detail. A net of an even 11,000 are estimated to annually move to Columbus's MSA from elsewhere in Ohio. And a net of 1,196 moved from Columbus to elsewhere in the USA.

 

So all of the Columbus MSA's positive domestic immigration is accounted for by intra-Ohio migration, with the rest of the country drawing people out of the metro.

 

Let me know if anyone has more specific questions, as I have a database set up where I can (likely) answer those questions fairly easily.

Something like this is selling for $100k more than the equivalent in Cincinnati in the same sort of area:

https://www.trulia.com/property/3094085606-1970-N-4th-St-Columbus-OH-43201

 

This one is similarly less than a mile from UC and has one fewer bedroom, but is $150k less:

https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1498839/2426-Fairview-Ave-Clifton-OH-45219

 

This is only comparing student rentals near OSU vs. UC, but I have seen many examples in recent years where a similar house or multifamily in a similar neighborhood is selling for significantly more in Columbus.