That is great news.  In other news, Illinois lost population is now #6, between Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The last time Ohio grew numerically that large from year to year was 1996. That happens to be the last year that the Cleveland Metro area achieved a statistically significant increase in its population. Fingers crossed.

Interesting article about population changes in the Sun Belt vs. the Snow Belt....

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/12/22/sun-belt-population-growth-hits-modest-snag-census-data-show/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

2017 State population estimates were released yesterday. Ohio increased by 36,055 - our largest year over year increase since at least 2010.

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/estimates-idaho.html

 

 

that is very good to hear --

 

i bet 35k of them moved in to columbus lol

most of the growth is comprised of new births outpacing deaths as opposed to people moving to ohio

Good for Ohio! It's interesting what is going on in Chicagoland and the rest of Illinois (population loss).

If that's true regarding new births vs. deaths, I'm a little worried about the accuracy of that number. Haven't we had a record number of heroin deaths each year for the last 3 years? It seems like that would have a pretty large affect on the death rate in Ohio.

More people have had access to health care recently.

As bad as things are, drug overdoses still account for only a small share of all deaths. Something like ~5%.

Drug overdose deaths in Ohio rose from ~2100 deaths in 2013 to 4050 in 2016, and that number is supposed to increase for 2017.

 

When there are about 25,000-30,000 94,000 deaths in Ohio every year, this is a very significant number of deaths, which makes me really skeptical that births are outpacing deaths in a greater margin than several years ago.

Also, drug overdose deaths are usually from younger individuals which lowers life expectancy higher than cancer deaths which tend to hit people on average much later in their lifetimes.

^^The best data I can find (CDC) showed 27K deaths in OH from heart disease alone in 2014, so I think the total number of deaths is much, much higher than your number.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/ohio.htm

 

Surprisingly hard to find 2016 data in an easy format to read. Looks like OH DOH website with death data was neglected by the Kasich administration: https://www.odh.ohio.gov/healthstats/vitalstats/deathstat.aspx

Looks like there might be ~94,000 deaths per year? These numbers are surprisingly hard to come by, but I found a death rate of about 810 per 100,000 people in Ohio. Not sure where I saw that earlier number. The increase in opioid/heroin/prescription drug deaths is still a very significant figure (at least an increase of about 2% in total deaths over the last 3 years) where it seems unlikely that increased births would offset that. But I obviously could be wrong.

 

EDIT: according to the spreadsheet linked on that census article for statewide breakdowns, there were 114,938 deaths in Ohio between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017

^According to the Census Bureau's estimates, the change from 2010 to 2017 is as follows for Ohio:

 

121,879 - Total Population Change

179,914 - Natural Increase

 

1,004,081 - Births

  824,167 - Deaths

 

  -54,642  Total Net Migration

137,973 - International

-192,615 Domestic

 

https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2017/demo/popest/nation-total.html

so the growth number does not take into consideration the deaths and people who moved out? i thought it was net growth.

Population growth/loss is fairly straightforward to calculate. Its

 

Population Estimate Year = Population Original + Natural Increase/Decrease + Net migration.

 

Natural Increase/decrease = Births - deaths

Net migration = People moving into subject area less people moving out of subject area.

 

Use these formulas to the numbers I posted two posts above.  If you want an average per year, divide by 7.

Ohio is essentially "treading water" because births are outpacing deaths in the state.

 

We're actually "losing" if you only look at migration (people moving into or out of the state).

 

My initial thought is that the rise in city populations (especially Columbus) is just a shift of the younger generations preferring to live in cities/urban areas vs. suburbs or rural areas.

Ohio is essentially "treading water" because births are outpacing deaths in the state.

 

We're actually "losing" if you only look at migration (people moving into or out of the state).

 

My initial thought is that the rise in city populations (especially Columbus) is just a shift of the younger generations preferring to live in cities/urban areas vs. suburbs or rural areas.

 

Columbus' metro growth is made up of a little more than 50% natural growth. 

Average annual net natural growth by decade:

1990-2000: +10470

2000-2010: +12331

2010-2016: +12668

 

The other roughly 50% is made up of a combination of domestic and international migration.

 

Average Annual Domestic Migration

1990-2000: +4400

2000-2010: +3426

2010-2016: +4861

 

Average Annual International Migration

1990-2000: +1230

2000-2010: +4170

2010-2016: +5935

 

Total Migration

1990-2000: +5630

2000-2010: +7596

2010-2016: +10796

 

Columbus is one of the only Ohio cities to both have increasing natural growth rates as well as domestic and international migration.  Whatever the case may be in the rest of the state, it's not happening in Columbus.

Columbus is one of the only Ohio cities to both have increasing natural growth rates as well as domestic and international migration.  Whatever the case may be in the rest of the state, it's not happening in Columbus.

 

Columbus's domestic migration is only positive due to intra-Ohio migration. Without it, it would be slightly negative. I think this helps explain your observation that what's happening in the rest of the state is not happening in Columbus; a significant portion of Columbus's growth comes from out-migration in the rest of the state.

 

https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,10856.msg824352.html#msg824352

People move to Columbus then have kids.

Columbus is one of the only Ohio cities to both have increasing natural growth rates as well as domestic and international migration.  Whatever the case may be in the rest of the state, it's not happening in Columbus.

 

Columbus's domestic migration is only positive due to intra-Ohio migration. Without it, it would be slightly negative. I think this helps explain your observation that what's happening in the rest of the state is not happening in Columbus; a significant portion of Columbus's growth comes from out-migration in the rest of the state.

 

https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,10856.msg824352.html#msg824352

 

I'm not sure why this matters.  Most cities get the bulk of their domestic migration from within their home states, contrary to what some might otherwise believe, even high-growth cities like Austin and Charlotte.  That said, Columbus' out-of-state domestic migration is growing.  The last time it was negative was the 2009-2013 period that is referenced in your link.  The very next period- 2010-2014, it had an out-of-state net domestic of +1,007, and has subsequently increased further since then.  Meanwhile, domestic growth from the rest of Ohio has actually decreased, from greater than 11,000 2009-2013 to under 9,000 2012-2016.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

Columbus isn't doing anything different than the other Ohio cities strategically. So there's nothing that city governments or economic development agencies can clone. They all try. Not only that, all of Appalachia  tries. Every Appalachian city wants to be Columbus very badly and they've been at it for 30 years plus. They can't figure it out because there is nothing to figure out.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Nobody knocked Columbus's growth at all.  At least I didn't take it as a knock at all.  Perhaps I missed something.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Columbus was noted because it has a positive net migration (ignoring births and deaths) while the state overall is negative (but overall population growth is positive because births are outpacing deaths).  I don't know the specifics on Cleveland or Cincinnati or anywhere else in the state, but I'm guessing Columbus might be the sole outlier in this regard.

That was the latest data I could find when I did that analysis. I wasn't trying to knock Columbus anymore than you guys are trying to knock other Ohio cities (at least I don't think you are). Since Columbus's positive domestic migration was mentioned in comparison to other Ohio cities, I was pointing out an explanation for Columbus's status as the Ohio-outlier in that respect. It's the one city drawing from all the others, leading to its positive domestic migration. Maybe it's not reliant on the other Ohio cities for that anymore, but it was the last time I looked into it.

Columbus isn't doing anything different than the other Ohio cities strategically. So there's nothing that city governments or economic development agencies can clone. They all try. Not only that, all of Appalachia  tries. Every Appalachian city wants to be Columbus very badly and they've been at it for 30 years plus. They can't figure it out because there is nothing to figure out.

 

So you're saying the Cincinnati and Cleveland have no hope for faster/rebounding growth because Johnstown or Wheeling can't get it's act together? And that there are no examples to take from Columbus/Franklin Co.? I don't believe either of those things.

 

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Nobody knocked Columbus's growth at all.  At least I didn't take it as a knock at all.  Perhaps I missed something.

 

That's a fair point. Looking back I was being a bit harsh and probably read too much into it. It's just that when Columbus is used as an example on many threads here there's always someone from a different part of the state trying to knock it down. I think it's part of the reason why people from Columbus don't frequent this site as much or at least don't post as much in the forums.

That was the latest data I could find when I did that analysis. I wasn't trying to knock Columbus anymore than you guys are trying to knock other Ohio cities (at least I don't think you are). Since Columbus's positive domestic migration was mentioned in comparison to other Ohio cities, I was pointing out an explanation for Columbus's status as the Ohio-outlier in that respect. It's the one city drawing from all the others, leading to its positive domestic migration. Maybe it's not reliant on the other Ohio cities for that anymore, but it was the last time I looked into it.

 

Yes, in the past, Columbus' domestic migration net was dependent on the rest of Ohio, but not anymore.  And even if Columbus didn't receive a single person from the rest of the state, it would still be the fastest-growing city in the state by totals just due to natural and international growth. 

 

As for those that say nothing can be learned from all this, I disagree.  In terms of domestic migration from Ohio, what makes Columbus virtually the only magnet?  Why do people move there?

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly.

 

Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave.

 

The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live)

 

 

^ that's a pretty decent synopsis.  Don't forget the advent of air conditioning as part of the sun belt growth as well.

People move there because there are a ton of jobs and young people. Cost of living is pretty impressive too.

 

And... well... the demographics there are conducive of a strong and desirable city with low crime relative to other major urban areas. 140'ish homicides in a city of over 860,000 is not awful.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly.

 

Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave.

 

The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live)

 

The Columbus area has been the fastest growing metro over the last half century. It's also been the least affected by recession. True, Cincinnati's growth is around Columbus's pace over the last few years but it's mostly been behind C-bus since Ohio's growth slowed down. Columbus's fairly steady economic expansion is impressive to me.

 

As Columbus gets larger and larger, it should increasingly offset ebb-and-flow problems in Cincy and Cleveland economies and allow the entire state to grow more consistently again. Not a bad thing.

 

As for Cleveland, it saw higher growth in the 1990s only to be offset by two recessions. It's growing again but still had many more jobs 1999 than it has today. At what point does the area actually expand? If the Cleveland area could grow at even half the rate of Columbus there's no doubt Ohio would be growing decently again.

 

 

Yes, in the past, Columbus' domestic migration net was dependent on the rest of Ohio, but not anymore.  And even if Columbus didn't receive a single person from the rest of the state, it would still be the fastest-growing city in the state by totals just due to natural and international growth. 

 

As for those that say nothing can be learned from all this, I disagree.  In terms of domestic migration from Ohio, what makes Columbus virtually the only magnet?  Why do people move there?

 

I don't think you can make this claim without justification. It could be that immigration from Ohio lit a fire that caused the rest.

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

^ that's a pretty decent synopsis.  Don't forget the advent of air conditioning as part of the sun belt growth as well.

 

absolutely!

 

I think comparing growth in Ohio or even the cities in Ohio to growth in Nashville, Tampa, Charlotte, Dallas, Austin, etc is not an apples to apples comparison.  Ohio is much more like New York as far as growth trends are concerned. We are doing a lot better than Illinois. New York is losing a heck of a lot more people than ever migrated out of Ohio and they are not replacing them with people going there for phenomenal jobs (yes there are some of that), but the bulk of the immigration is coming from overseas because it is a major port of entry and people stay there.

 

I would wager that the growth of most cities in the 21st century is not necessarily coming from young professionals who are moving to an area for jobs ( that is certainly part of the equation) but rather certain booms in ethnic groups who establish an enclave in these areas. For example, Columbus and Minneapolis have become enclaves for the Somali population, Detroit has become a hub for Middle Easterners, many cities in the Sun Belt has large Hispanic populations to support their growth. They come over in droves and they also tend to have more children and larger families than young professionals who have none or just one or two.  This is what leads to faster growth more than high paying jobs.

 

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

 

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

 

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years

 

1). Cin-Day isn't an actual metropolitan area (yet).  It is two adjacent metropolitan areas in SW Ohio.  Columbus will be the state's largest MSA.

2). If Cin-Day DID exist, it currently is around 3.4 million.

^ Yes but by the time Columbus would be expected to eclipse Cincinnati, Cin-Day would have already been a merged metro area.

People have been repeating that claim for the last 3 censuses. I'm not going to count that until it happens.

^ Yes but by the time Columbus would be expected to eclipse Cincinnati, Cin-Day would have already been a merged metro area.

 

It's currently a pretty large 'IF'. IF they merge, yes Cincy will take lead. However that likelihood of that happening? Who knows. So unless it does in 2020, Columbus will surpass Cincy soon to become the states largest metro.

Columbus isn't doing anything different than the other Ohio cities strategically. So there's nothing that city governments or economic development agencies can clone. They all try. Not only that, all of Appalachia  tries. Every Appalachian city wants to be Columbus very badly and they've been at it for 30 years plus. They can't figure it out because there is nothing to figure out.

 

So you're saying the Cincinnati and Cleveland have no hope for faster/rebounding growth because Johnstown or Wheeling can't get it's act together? And that there are no examples to take from Columbus/Franklin Co.? I don't believe either of those things.

 

 

Most other cities don't have flat cheap land with nothing on it all over the place. They also don't have OSU, the state capital, and a massive cargo-only airport next to important rail lines that was built with military money all in one place. That's what all the Appalachian cities want and they can't have it. There is no secret sauce. So the lesson for other cities is that there are some things they can't control.

 

I've noticed that some people are unwilling to accept an answer like that because they think everything is controllable, but a lot of things aren't.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly.

 

Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave.

 

The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live)

 

I still don't get this idea that international growth is somehow not as good as domestic.  Why?  Growth is growth, however it happens, and immigrants have value. 

 

Florida and other Sun Belt states get the vast majority of their domestic migration from other parts of the Sun Belt, NOT the North, just as Ohio gets the vast majority of its domestic migration from its own region rather than others.  In fact, the Sun Belt LOST population domestically to the Midwest 2012-2016 based on that period's migration tables.  When it comes to this issue, there are always all sorts of beliefs thrown about that aren't actually true.

 

Also, cost of living is now basically equal between the Midwest and South, and it's actually becoming more expensive in the South, regardless of tax policy.  On top of all that, the South is the worst region in almost every quality of life metric used, from education to upward mobility, obesity, poverty, etc.  Let's stop making the South as some kind of Utopia. 

^ that's a pretty decent synopsis.  Don't forget the advent of air conditioning as part of the sun belt growth as well.

 

The Census does mobility surveys on region-to-region moves.  Change of climate is often less than 1% of the responses as to why people moved.  People just don't move for weather.

Yes, in the past, Columbus' domestic migration net was dependent on the rest of Ohio, but not anymore.  And even if Columbus didn't receive a single person from the rest of the state, it would still be the fastest-growing city in the state by totals just due to natural and international growth. 

 

As for those that say nothing can be learned from all this, I disagree.  In terms of domestic migration from Ohio, what makes Columbus virtually the only magnet?  Why do people move there?

 

I don't think you can make this claim without justification. It could be that immigration from Ohio lit a fire that caused the rest.

 

Yes, I can.  Most Ohio cities have positive international migration, so it's safe to assume Columbus would.  Its natural growth rate has been very positive for decades, and there's no reason to think it would be all the different without Ohio's migration added considering that Ohio in general has an older population than many other states.  So why wouldn't Columbus continue to have the strongest total growth even without Ohio?  For the record, Columbus is receiving less from Ohio than Ohio sends out of state, so most people who choose to move leave the state altogether.

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

 

Why is density a problem for Columbus, but not Cincinnati, a city that Columbus currently has a higher density than? 

Also, with the proliferation of autonomous vehicles, a lot of building patterns may change- certainly car-oriented infrastructure.  I'm not sure any city is really ready for those consequences.

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

 

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years

 

1). Cin-Day isn't an actual metropolitan area (yet).  It is two adjacent metropolitan areas in SW Ohio.  Columbus will be the state's largest MSA.

2). If Cin-Day DID exist, it currently is around 3.4 million.

 

I suspect that if Cin-Day ever exists (and it's possible it never will), it will become a CSA rather than an MSA. 

Columbus isn't doing anything different than the other Ohio cities strategically. So there's nothing that city governments or economic development agencies can clone. They all try. Not only that, all of Appalachia  tries. Every Appalachian city wants to be Columbus very badly and they've been at it for 30 years plus. They can't figure it out because there is nothing to figure out.

 

So you're saying the Cincinnati and Cleveland have no hope for faster/rebounding growth because Johnstown or Wheeling can't get it's act together? And that there are no examples to take from Columbus/Franklin Co.? I don't believe either of those things.

 

 

Most other cities don't have flat cheap land with nothing on it all over the place. They also don't have OSU, the state capital, and a massive cargo-only airport next to important rail lines that was built with military money all in one place. That's what all the Appalachian cities want and they can't have it. There is no secret sauce. So the lesson for other cities is that there are some things they can't control.

 

I've noticed that some people are unwilling to accept an answer like that because they think everything is controllable, but a lot of things aren't.

 

There are plenty of successful, growing cities that don't match Columbus' circumstances.  Honestly, this just sounds like an excuse.  Even if a city doesn't have the same things, that hardly means they can't become successful based on their own strengths. 

Well it can't be denied that OSU and the state government are major assets for Columbus that contribute to its growth. But it should be noted that those two institutions are subsidized heavily by people outside of columbus, that are in Cleveland, Toledo, Cincinnati, etc. Probably 80-85% of the geographic subsidies to those organization come from outside of Columbus.

I think people are really underestimating Rickenbacker's shaping of the Columbus economy starting in the late '90s. What all those warehouse jobs have done is allow people on who live south of I-70 avoid fighting tooth and nail for jobs north of I-70. Without the Rickenbacker, West Side and Grove City jobs all the people born in those areas and people who move to town from Ohio's smaller cities and Appalachian counties would have a much tougher time finding work. Dublin, Worthington and Westerville aren't as likely to give those folks a chance as they are to someone from Boardman or Alliance.

If trajectories continue as they have been, Columbus will soon become the largest metro and largest economy in the state, and may continue to grow until it's the clear alpha city in the state (a title which I would say is currently up for grabs among all 3Cs).

 

My belief is Columbus is in a race against the clock to build transit in order to change its development patterns and densify. None of us may be around to see the negative impacts of the city not doing that, but all the annexation of low-density areas in the past was a gambit that must be dealt with before the outer city neighborhoods age.

 

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years

 

1). Cin-Day isn't an actual metropolitan area (yet).  It is two adjacent metropolitan areas in SW Ohio.  Columbus will be the state's largest MSA.

2). If Cin-Day DID exist, it currently is around 3.4 million.

 

I suspect that if Cin-Day ever exists (and it's possible it never will), it will become a CSA rather than an MSA. 

 

It will exist by 2020. City leaders from both areas are pretty much counting on this. With the growth in Warren county and areas like Springboro there are so many people commuting from Warren to Montgomery County. Springboro is becoming such an important part of the Dayton area that it is the chief job creator area outside of Wright Patterson. The combined MSA is inevitable, just like Columbus continued growth.

Instead of finding excuses to knock down the Columbus growth rate why not discuss ways to emulate the Central Ohio business environment throughout the entire state? Imagine if Cleveland and Cincy were growing as fast as C-bus. The state growth rate would be closer to the Sun Belt average than the Eastern Midwest.

 

People from Columbus should be proud.

 

Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly.

 

Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave.

 

The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live)

 

I still don't get this idea that international growth is somehow not as good as domestic.  Why?  Growth is growth, however it happens, and immigrants have value. 

 

Florida and other Sun Belt states get the vast majority of their domestic migration from other parts of the Sun Belt, NOT the North, just as Ohio gets the vast majority of its domestic migration from its own region rather than others.  In fact, the Sun Belt LOST population domestically to the Midwest 2012-2016 based on that period's migration tables.  When it comes to this issue, there are always all sorts of beliefs thrown about that aren't actually true.

 

Also, cost of living is now basically equal between the Midwest and South, and it's actually becoming more expensive in the South, regardless of tax policy.  On top of all that, the South is the worst region in almost every quality of life metric used, from education to upward mobility, obesity, poverty, etc.  Let's stop making the South as some kind of Utopia. 

 

Migration is migration whether it be international or domestic. However, when you have immigrants coming in from other countries, they often require more assistance because they 1) generally tend to be lower on the economic spectrum  2) are generally not working or coming to the area for high paid jobs in the growth fields and 3) have more children which requires more schools and other services.

Don't look at this as a good or bad thing but it is a reality of the situation.  There is a big difference between the growth of say Silicon Valley and the growth in Laredo, Texas in terms of the use of resources. You still want immigrants coming to the area however, initially, they will not build the wealth of the region up.