October 2, 20195 yr On 9/26/2019 at 4:24 PM, Pugu said: ^At last--a positive population change for Cleveland! Thanks jonoh81 for compiling. Could you do the same cities above, but using their counties instead of municipal boundaries? Also, 125k Columbus is big. How many of those are students at OSU? Wait, how is this a positive population change for Cleveland? I did a spreadsheet to make things a little easier to parse leaving out Toledo out for time's sake (sorry Toledo). Unless my excel skills are rusty (entirely possible), these numbers give a total 2018 population for Cleveland at 383.7k. And from what I could find over lunch, the 2017 population was estimated at 385.5k https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/cleveland-ohio And here's my spreadsheet: Not trying to be combative about it or anything, I hope my math is wrong or something, but I'm just curious where the positive population change comes from? Am I missing something here?
October 7, 20195 yr What’s everyone’s guesses for the population Columbus,Cleveland and Cincinnati for the 2020 census?
October 7, 20195 yr ^ well i wonder if columbus cracks a mil and if the bleeding stops and cleveland flattens out like cincinnati. all of that happening would be ideal for now. then growth for all three next decade.
October 7, 20195 yr Cranley thinks 310k for Cincinnati, I would guess 305k. I don't know much about Cleveland but looking at track 380k Columbus I would guess 925k
October 7, 20195 yr On 10/2/2019 at 12:52 PM, jonoh81 said: Foreign-born Population from North America and % of Total Foreign-born Population Given that "Mexico" I assume is part of the category "Latin America", does "North America" here refer to exclusively Canadians?
October 7, 20195 yr On 10/2/2019 at 1:49 PM, gpodawund said: Wait, how is this a positive population change for Cleveland? I did a spreadsheet to make things a little easier to parse leaving out Toledo out for time's sake (sorry Toledo). Unless my excel skills are rusty (entirely possible), these numbers give a total 2018 population for Cleveland at 383.7k. And from what I could find over lunch, the 2017 population was estimated at 385.5k https://www.biggestuscities.com/city/cleveland-ohio And here's my spreadsheet: Not trying to be combative about it or anything, I hope my math is wrong or something, but I'm just curious where the positive population change comes from? Am I missing something here? gpodawund: I was referring to the post immediately above where I made the comment. it was on 9/26. I was referring to this point: Total Foreign-Born Population and % of Total Population Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +38,676 Akron: +5,125 Cleveland: +4,099 Cincinnati: +4,061 Dayton: +2,209 Toledo: -2,521 Youngstown: -2,719 The number for CLE is positive. Usually we see negative numbers when looking at CLE population changes. That's the point i was noting.
October 7, 20195 yr 2 hours ago, Pugu said: Given that "Mexico" I assume is part of the category "Latin America", does "North America" here refer to exclusively Canadians? No. It would also include the Caribbean islands that aren't Spanish-speaking. So like the Bahamas, Virgin Islands, etc.
October 7, 20195 yr 4 hours ago, Ucgrad2015 said: What’s everyone’s guesses for the population Columbus,Cleveland and Cincinnati for the 2020 census? For Columbus, here was the estimated total year-over-year growth 2010-2018 (keep in mind, these are updated with each new year's estimate) Census 2010-July 1, 2011: +13,489 7/1/11-7/1/12: +12,189 7/1/12-7/1/13: +15,113 7/1/13-7/1/14: +13,916 7/1/14-7/1/15: +13,272 7/1/15-7/1/16: +11,906 7/1/16-7/1/17: +14,845 7/1/17-7/1/18: +10,770 Typically, each year's new estimates have raised previous years by a few thousand, so it's reasonable to expect that the 2018 number will also be too low. The average growth per year has been +13,188. Assuming that 2018's population will be adjusted upward, that will probably take us to around 895,000 for the 2018 revised estimate. And assuming a fairly consistent increase that follows the same patterns of previous years, we can expect a 2019 estimate of around 908,000 with a further adjustment of around 911,000. Ultimately, I would expect a 2020 figure to show higher growth than the estimates, as was the case during the 2000s with the 2010 Census. My guess is that Columbus will hit between 925K-930K in 2020. Realistically, the city has likely already surpassed Cleveland's historic peak to become the largest city in Ohio history. Edited October 7, 20195 yr by jonoh81
October 7, 20195 yr 2 hours ago, Pugu said: gpodawund: I was referring to the post immediately above where I made the comment. it was on 9/26. I was referring to this point: Total Foreign-Born Population and % of Total Population Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +38,676 Akron: +5,125 Cleveland: +4,099 Cincinnati: +4,061 Dayton: +2,209 Toledo: -2,521 Youngstown: -2,719 The number for CLE is positive. Usually we see negative numbers when looking at CLE population changes. That's the point i was noting. To be fair, i don't think that is actually a change. Foreign-born growth has been generally positive for many years, even in Cleveland. It just hasn't been nearly enough to cover the much larger domestic out-migration.
October 7, 20195 yr Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago. The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it.
October 7, 20195 yr 4 hours ago, mrnyc said: ^ well i wonder if columbus cracks a mil and if the bleeding stops and cleveland flattens out like cincinnati. all of that happening would be ideal for now. then growth for all three next decade. I think 1 mill is too high, given the city has shown pretty consistent, steady growth for awhile now. It would take some off-the-charts growth to get to 7 digits by 2020, imo. Very Stable Genius
October 7, 20195 yr ^ yeah i see at a glance i mistakenly took 2018 for 2010 -- but ok in the 900ks for sure -- and the mil will come in just a few years after the census.
October 7, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, jonoh81 said: Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago. The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it. can you post something about that news? it is really something impressive especially as i thought mpls initially started out with many more refugees.
October 7, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, jonoh81 said: Speaking of Columbus, the exploding population from Africa has well surpassed Minneapolis to become the largest in the Midwest, even vs. Chicago. The story in the Dispatch about the relative ease to get a green card there might explain some of it. Do you have the stats vs. Minneapolis/Chicago? I'm curious how large an uptick it has been. "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
October 7, 20195 yr here is something related from june --- it still says 45k somali and second largest though: https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190617/muslim-population-growth-shows-in-columbus-crowded-mosques
October 7, 20195 yr 4 hours ago, ColDayMan said: Do you have the stats vs. Minneapolis/Chicago? I'm curious how large an uptick it has been. Here are some Midwest comparisons for Foreign-born from Africa, City Only 2000--------------------------------------2018 1. Minneapolis: 12,765--------1. Columbus: 45,092 2. Chicago: 12,613---------------2. Minneapolis: 26,271 3. Columbus: 9,530--------------3. Chicago: 25,573 4. St. Paul: 4,697------------------4. Indianapolis: 14,965 5. Detroit: 3,249-------------------5. St. Paul: 13,594 6. Indianapolis: 2,650-----------6. Kansas City: 8,558 7. Kansas City: 2,192-----------7. Cincinnati: 7,113 8. Cincinnati: 1,781--------------8. Des Moines: 6,191 9. St. Louis: 1,500----------------9. Omaha: 5,474 10. Omaha: 1,497----------------10. Grand Rapids: 3,932 11. Milwaukee: 1,332-----------11. St. Louis: 3,777 12. Cleveland: 1,075-------------12. Milwaukee: 3,552 13. Des Moines: 1,038----------13. Lincoln: 2,942 14. Madison: 991-----------------14. Wichita: 2,752 15. Wichita: 946-------------------15. Madison: 2,599 16. Grand Rapids: 718----------16. Detroit: 2,081 17. Lincoln: 637---------------------17. Fort Wayne: 1,614 18. Dayton: 522--------------------18. Dayton: 1,573 19. Fort Wayne: 384--------------19. Akron: 1,312 20. Akron: 197-----------------------20. Cleveland: 622 Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +35562 Minneapolis: +13506 Chicago: +12960 Indianapolis: +12315 St. Paul: +8897 Kansas City: +6366 Cincinnati: +5332 Des Moines: +5153 Omaha: +3977 Grand Rapids: +3214 Lincoln: +2305 St. Louis: +2277 Milwaukee: +2220 Wichita: +1806 Madison: +1608 Fort Wayne: +1230 Akron: +1115 Dayton: +1051 Cleveland: -453 Detroit: -1168 Columbus added almost as many as the next 3 cities combined during the period. Edited October 7, 20195 yr by jonoh81
October 8, 20195 yr 5 hours ago, mrnyc said: here is something related from june --- it still says 45k somali and second largest though: https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190617/muslim-population-growth-shows-in-columbus-crowded-mosques I am talking about all African foreign-born, not just from Somalia, and only for the city. Minneapolis is still higher at the metro level. At the metro level, Columbus was 3rd in the Midwest for African foreign-born, but only about 300 behind Chicago and growing significantly faster than either other metro.
October 8, 20195 yr 17 hours ago, jonoh81 said: I am talking about all African foreign-born, not just from Somalia, and only for the city. Minneapolis is still higher at the metro level. At the metro level, Columbus was 3rd in the Midwest for African foreign-born, but only about 300 behind Chicago and growing significantly faster than either other metro. It is kind of shocking to me that metro Columbus is only about 300 behind Chicago metro in African foreign-born. That is just amazing to me. Good for Cbus. I hope that easier-to-get-a-green-card thing is helping and if so continues to do so. Might want to send these stats about migration(although it is mostly international probably)to a certain blogger and Manhattan Institute member.. ?
October 8, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, Toddguy said: It is kind of shocking to me that metro Columbus is only about 300 behind Chicago metro in African foreign-born. That is just amazing to me. Good for Cbus. I hope that easier-to-get-a-green-card thing is helping and if so continues to do so. Might want to send these stats about migration(although it is mostly international probably)to a certain blogger and Manhattan Institute member.. ? I wouldn't want to be just another "booster bro".
October 8, 20195 yr Still looking for someone to create a Booster Bro archetype so that I can easily identify them like the Columbus Barbies from 10+ years ago:
November 18, 20195 yr The NY Times recently looked at what percentage of the population in each county in the US is urban, inner suburban, outer suburban, and rural. Basically, if you're in the top 20% of density you're urban. Bottom 20% is rural. And the in-between is split between inner and outer suburban. Here are the top five for each category in Ohio. Urban Cuyahoga - 34% Franklin - 29% Athens - 22% Lucas - 20% Hamilton - 17% Inner-Suburban Lucas - 65% Hamilton - 62% Franklin - 57% Montgomery - 56% Mahoning - 55% Outer-Suburban Miami - 84% Geauga - 81% Clermont - 76% Warren - 70% Greene - 69% Rural Adams, Monroe, Morgan, Morrow, and Vinton all 100%. Holmes is next at 90%. And just for fun, I combined the urban and inner-ring numbers to get a total for medium to high density: Urban + Inner Ring Franklin - 85% Lucas - 84% Cuyahoga - 84% Hamilton - 79% Montgomery - 67% One thing that I think is interesting is that the population of Athens County is highly urban, coming in 3rd in the state. The students living in dorms and dense housing near campus obviously dominate that. Athens really is an urban planners dream for a city its size. Highly walkable, dense, and vibrant. Athens County also ranks fairly high on the Rural metric, so basically there are very few people in Athens County living at medium densities. Another thing that's interesting is how urban Lucas County is. On the Urban ranking it is higher than Hamilton, and on the combined Urban + Inner Ring ranking it comes in higher than both Cuyahoga and Hamilton.
November 18, 20195 yr I'll also add, here are the least rural counties: Cuyahoga - 0% Hamilton - 0% Summit - 0% Franklin - 1% Lucas - 2%
November 18, 20195 yr It would be interesting to see some stats like population within an MSA within a half-mile from a walkable (zero-setback, etc.) business district.
November 18, 20195 yr Toledo's the odd child of the second-tier cities since it never really sprawled to anywhere near the same extent as Dayton or Akron. A good 30% of the metro, and over half of Lucas County, lives in Toledo itself. “To an Ohio resident - wherever he lives - some other part of his state seems unreal.”
November 18, 20195 yr Seem to be just further evidence that Columbus is not just sprawl. However, I would like to see the methodology on what they are considering urban vs suburban.
November 18, 20195 yr 26 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Seem to be just further evidence that Columbus is not just sprawl. However, I would like to see the methodology on what they are considering urban vs suburban. They took every Census tract in the entire country and divided them into deciles based on density. The lowest two deciles were categorized as rural. The top two were categorized as urban. And the middle ones were divided between inner and outer suburban. So basically if you are classified as "urban" you are in the top 20% of density at the tract level.
November 18, 20195 yr 3 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: They took every Census tract in the entire country and divided them into deciles based on density. The lowest two deciles were categorized as rural. The top two were categorized as urban. And the middle ones were divided between inner and outer suburban. So basically if you are classified as "urban" you are in the top 20% of density at the tract level. So if I'm correct in my understanding, doesn't that mean that the definition of urban would change based on the city? New York's density would be much higher than Des Moines', so the deciles would be on a much different scale. 100K PPSM in New York may be top 20%, while 10K PPSM would be in Des Moines. If so, is 10K urbanity the same as 100K urbanity? Edited November 18, 20195 yr by jonoh81
November 18, 20195 yr It doesn't make much sense to make a land use classification based upon population density. You could have a 99% agricultural tract with a prison designated as urban and an office park designated as rural.
November 18, 20195 yr 16 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: So if I'm correct in my understanding, doesn't that mean that the definition of urban would change based on the city? New York's density would be much higher than Des Moines', so the deciles would be on a much different scale. 100K PPSM in New York may be top 20%, while 10K PPSM would be in Des Moines. If so, is 10K urbanity the same as 100K urbanity? No, it's national deciles. So its standardized across the entire country.
November 18, 20195 yr 11 minutes ago, Robuu said: It doesn't make much sense to make a land use classification based upon population density. You could have a 99% agricultural tract with a prison designated as urban and an office park designated as rural. They also divided pavement density into deciles and used the highest of the two measures for their classification, so the office park situation is rectified. They do, however, acknowledge, that there are some discrepancies caused by prisons but most are in rural areas with very large Census tracts that dilate the population density of the prison. I'll throw together some quick maps of their data for Cincy, Cbus, and Cleveland so you guys can judge their accuracy based on your lived experience.
November 18, 20195 yr Here is Cincinnati. Red is rural, light red is outer ring, light blue is inner ring, and blue is urban.
November 18, 20195 yr Also, looks like I slightly misinterpreted their scale. They divided the tracts into classifications between 1 and 10 and then made 9 and 10 urban, 1 and 2 rural, etc. But they rounded to the nearest whole number, so a tract in the 76th percentile would be classified as an 8. So that means their urban classification is roughly the top quarter of tracts and their rural is roughly the bottom quarter. Outer ring is then about the 25th percentile to the 54th percentile and inner ring is the 55th percentile to the 74th percentile.
November 18, 20195 yr Cool map thanks for posting! Kind of crazy how populated at least in SW Ohio the NKY, Cincinnati/Hamilton, Dayton/Middletown/Springfield corridor is. Almost connected on 70 to the Columbus metro by outer ring suburb. I don't know a lot about Columbus or if it is branching out west or not. In Cincinnati, Kind of crazy the huge amount of area on the west side considering outer ring suburb. It seems they are diong tons of development going out that way so I would be curious to see if it changes in 2030 to more inner ring suburb density. I think Jake mentioned before it was more to do with sewer and water lines impeding development going out west. It seems too the Harrison area is growing on the border with Indiana. Columbus seems like it isn't as spread out at Cin-Day but super compact within it's beltway.
November 18, 20195 yr 2 minutes ago, IAGuy39 said: Cool map thanks for posting! Kind of crazy how populated at least in SW Ohio the NKY, Cincinnati/Hamilton, Dayton/Middletown/Springfield corridor is. Almost connected on 70 to the Columbus metro by outer ring suburb. I don't know a lot about Columbus or if it is branching out west or not. In Cincinnati, Kind of crazy the huge amount of area on the west side considering outer ring suburb. It seems they are diong tons of development going out that way so I would be curious to see if it changes in 2030 to more inner ring suburb density. I think Jake mentioned before it was more to do with sewer and water lines impeding development going out west. It seems too the Harrison area is growing on the border with Indiana. Columbus seems like it isn't as spread out at Cin-Day but super compact within it's beltway. You're welcome! Yea, the fact that Cbus and Cin-Day may soon connect along the I-70 corridor stuck out to me as well. And I think topography has a lot to do with the way the development of these metros has turned out. Here is terrain for both Cincinnati and Columbus:
November 18, 20195 yr 1 minute ago, DEPACincy said: Yea, the fact that Cbus and Cin-Day may soon connect along the I-70 corridor stuck out to me as well. Unlikely going to happen due to the Big Darby Creek watershed. "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
November 18, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, DEPACincy said: Is this based on 2010 Census data? If so, the areas in the southern half of Delaware County and some areas east of Gahanna will certainly be blue once updated in 2020. Also, I find it interesting that the area around the OSU airport got classified as outer ring while the area that includes CMH managed to get the inner ring classification. The two areas inside 270, other than the OSU airport, that were classified as outer ring area giant quarry and parkland.
November 18, 20195 yr 12 minutes ago, ColDayMan said: Unlikely going to happen due to the Big Darby Creek watershed. Interesting. It looks like the parts of Madison County that are in the watershed are mostly already classified as "outer suburban."
November 18, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, DEPACincy said: No, it's national deciles. So its standardized across the entire country. Okay, gotcha. Do you happen to know what those deciles are?
November 18, 20195 yr 10 minutes ago, cbussoccer said: Is this based on 2010 Census data? If so, the areas in the southern half of Delaware County and some areas east of Gahanna will certainly be blue once updated in 2020. Also, I find it interesting that the area around the OSU airport got classified as outer ring while the area that includes CMH managed to get the inner ring classification. It's 2017 ACS data, but I still wouldn't be surprised if more of Delaware County move into the denser classification by 2020. As for the airports, I would imagine it is because CMH has more paved area so it makes it into the inner ring classification based on its pavement percentile, not population.
November 18, 20195 yr 16 minutes ago, cbussoccer said: Is this based on 2010 Census data? If so, the areas in the southern half of Delaware County and some areas east of Gahanna will certainly be blue once updated in 2020. Also, I find it interesting that the area around the OSU airport got classified as outer ring while the area that includes CMH managed to get the inner ring classification. The two areas inside 270, other than the OSU airport, that were classified as outer ring area giant quarry and parkland. If I knew what deciles- or density figures- these were based on, I could easily do a 2010 comparison to the latest tract density figures to see what tracts would've been classified what in 2010 vs say 2017. Just from looking at the Columbus map, I can tell that all the darker blue have densities of at least 5,000 or higher. Light blue looks like maybe 2500-4999 or something, light red maybe 1000-2499 and dark red less than 1000. Edited November 18, 20195 yr by jonoh81
November 18, 20195 yr 8 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: Okay, gotcha. Do you happen to know what those deciles are? I do not, but I'll try to find out.
November 18, 20195 yr 1 minute ago, DEPACincy said: I do not, but I'll try to find out. If you can't find them, I can just do a simple comparison. I have the 2017 ACS density figures for tracts, so it would just be a matter of matching them up to the color scheme to see where the cutoffs are.
November 18, 20195 yr 1 minute ago, jonoh81 said: If I knew what deciles- or density figures- these were based on, I could easily do a 2010 comparison to the latest tract density figures to see what tracts would've been classified what in 2010 vs say 2017. That would be very interesting to look at. I bet the area along East Broad between downtown and Whitehall would turn dark blue and many areas outside 270 would turn light blue.
November 18, 20195 yr For Cleveland, the one neighborhood I find very interesting is the Stockyards/Clark Fulton area. They have it ranked as inner ring, but it is far more dense than some of the East Side areas that are marked as urban. While not quite "trendy" I would argue that its' one of the most dense neighborhoods in the city, no? Edit: Nevermind...had my bisecting highways confused on the map. It does appear the majority of Clark-Fulton is urban. Stockyards still seems more dense than they are crediting it to be though. Edited November 18, 20195 yr by YO to the CLE Wrong info
November 18, 20195 yr 7 minutes ago, DEPACincy said: It's 2017 ACS data, but I still wouldn't be surprised if more of Delaware County move into the denser classification by 2020. As for the airports, I would imagine it is because CMH has more paved area so it makes it into the inner ring classification based on its pavement percentile, not population. Yea, at the rate Delaware County is developing it wouldn't surprise me either. That makes sense for the airports. I agree.
November 18, 20195 yr 4 minutes ago, jonoh81 said: If you can't find them, I can just do a simple comparison. I have the 2017 ACS density figures for tracts, so it would just be a matter of matching them up to the color scheme to see where the cutoffs are. This is based on 2017 ACS data, so you'd need to compare it to 2010.
November 18, 20195 yr 2 minutes ago, YO to the CLE said: For Cleveland, the one neighborhood I find very interesting is the Stockyards/Clark Fulton area. They have it ranked as inner ring, but it is far more dense than some of the East Side areas that are marked as urban. While not quite "trendy" I would argue that its' one of the most dense neighborhoods in the city, no? Without knowing which east side tracts you're referring to I can guess that maybe they got bumped up to urban based on their pavement cover percentile. The metric looked at both population density and pavement cover, so if it was in the top quarter of all tracts for either it would be classified as urban.
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