This Census couldn't come at a worse time.

1 minute ago, ryanlammi said:

This Census couldn't come at a worse time.

 

Why? Everyone is at home.

4 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Why? Everyone is at home.

I mean, census workers going door to door is a major obvious problem, no?

The last thing I want is to have people who may be contagious coming around to every door.

^Like this guy?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/census-bureau-worker-tests-positive-for-novel-coronavirus-11584284589

Maybe they just postpone the census how long does it last? I know it has already started!

21 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

I mean, census workers going door to door is a major obvious problem, no?

 

True. I was thinking of terms of just getting the mailer and going on-line to fill out the questions. But I'm too old/self-absorbed to remember that not everyone has a computer/Internet.

1 hour ago, ryanlammi said:

According to a random article I found, 24% of UC students live on campus. With 38,000 students, that's 9,120 people who wouldn't be counted, assuming they've all moved off campus. Add in the off-campus housing for students who have moved back to their parents' places, and you'll be looking at well over 10k people undercounted in Cincinnati from UC alone.

 

This shouldn't be a problem. The questionnaire makes it clear that you should be counted where you usually sleep at night, and specifically mentions that college students should be counted at their university if they live there. 

12 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

True. I was thinking of terms of just getting the mailer and going on-line to fill out the questions. But I'm too old/self-absorbed to remember that not everyone has a computer/Internet.

Yea, I'd guess there is also a sizable amount of people that DO have access to those things that still end up requiring a visit from an enumerator.

35 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

This shouldn't be a problem. The questionnaire makes it clear that you should be counted where you usually sleep at night, and specifically mentions that college students should be counted at their university if they live there. 

 

But if people have already moved home, they will likely be counted on their parents' Census form.

 

They won't respond to a Census questionnaire sent to their dorm because they aren't there. Dorms are closed.

27 minutes ago, ryanlammi said:

 

But if people have already moved home, they will likely be counted on their parents' Census form.

 

They won't respond to a Census questionnaire sent to their dorm because they aren't there. Dorms are closed.

 

When their parents fill out the form it asks at the end if anyone in the house is a college student who usually lives somewhere else. If you say yes, it'll ask you to identify which people. Then it'll ask you for their school address. That way they get counted in the right place. The paper versions of the form have this section too. So everyone should be counted in the right place. 

11 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

When their parents fill out the form it asks at the end if anyone in the house is a college student who usually lives somewhere else. If you say yes, it'll ask you to identify which people. Then it'll ask you for their school address. That way they get counted in the right place. The paper versions of the form have this section too. So everyone should be counted in the right place. 

 

I still think it is a real concern estimating what percentage of households will correctly handle the paperwork.  What you're saying sounds good in practice, but who knows what the level of compliance will be.  Let's say 80% of households fill it out correctly, that is still a decent percentage of college students not being counted inside our major city limits.   It seems inevitable Ohio cities will feel at least some effect on college student metrics alone, with Cincinnati, Toledo, Columbus, and Youngstown possibly hit the hardest (Cleveland comparatively has a smaller student population).   

 

COVID-19 will create other issues overall ...that's a whole other story and should be a major concern as well.  

Edited March 17, 20205 yr by MuRrAy HiLL

57 minutes ago, MuRrAy HiLL said:

 

I still think it is a real concern estimating what percentage of households will correctly handle the paperwork.  What you're saying sounds good in practice, but who knows what the level of compliance will be.  Let's say 80% of households fill it out correctly, that is still a decent percentage of college students not being counted inside our major city limits.   It seems inevitable Ohio cities will feel at least some effect on college student metrics alone, with Cincinnati, Toledo, Columbus, and Youngstown possibly hit the hardest (Cleveland comparatively has a smaller student population).   

 

COVID-19 will create other issues overall ...that's a whole other story and should be a major concern as well.  

 

Well, college students always get undercounted. Typically the problem is that parents don't put them on their form and the students never fill theirs out. I'm not sure that the undercount will be any higher because of this. Maybe some parents will put them on their form and not mark them as college students. But also, maybe some parents will think to put them on their form now and mark them as college students when they might not have before. Who knows what the effect will be, but I don't think there's any reason to believe the undercount will be higher. 

36 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

Well, college students always get undercounted. Typically the problem is that parents don't put them on their form and the students never fill theirs out. I'm not sure that the undercount will be any higher because of this. Maybe some parents will put them on their form and not mark them as college students. But also, maybe some parents will think to put them on their form now and mark them as college students when they might not have before. Who knows what the effect will be, but I don't think there's any reason to believe the undercount will be higher. 

I hope you are right. I think our cities tend to get undercounted enough anyway

College students living in university housing and student-specific complexes are counted as part of the Census Group Quarters Enumeration, which means one representative (e.g. the university) may register the count for the census.

 

From the census website:

 

-In general, students in colleges and universities temporarily closed due to the COVID-19 virus will still be counted as part of this process.  Even if they are home on census day, April 1, they should be counted according to the residence criteria which states they should be counted where they live and sleep most of the time. We are asking schools to contact their students and remind them to respond.

-Per the Census Bureau’s residence criteria, in most cases students living away from home at school should be counted at school, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/modifying-2020-operations-for-counting-college-students.html

24 minutes ago, ink said:

College students living in university housing and student-specific complexes are counted as part of the Census Group Quarters Enumeration, which means one representative (e.g. the university) may register the count for the census.

 

From the census website:

 

-In general, students in colleges and universities temporarily closed due to the COVID-19 virus will still be counted as part of this process.  Even if they are home on census day, April 1, they should be counted according to the residence criteria which states they should be counted where they live and sleep most of the time. We are asking schools to contact their students and remind them to respond.

-Per the Census Bureau’s residence criteria, in most cases students living away from home at school should be counted at school, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/modifying-2020-operations-for-counting-college-students.html

Good! Cbus needs it's college population to be counted.  

Well, look at it this way: As a result of schools closing nationwide, there will be more students returning to their “home” metro areas in Ohio than there will be leaving, at least for the 3-Cs. By the seat of my pants (and I’ll admit I don’t have the statistics to back this up, although they’re probably out there) I would bet dollars-to-donuts that this will result in a net gain for MSA populations, and in the case of Columbus, perhaps even the central city as well, than if student remained at their universities. 
 

At any rate, college student counting on the census may be so polluted anyway (some properly counting themselves in their dorms or off campus housing, some being counted at home, and probably a fair amount never properly counted) that this’ll end up being a wash. And really, the fact that we’re so dependent on having every last college student counted is illustrative of what we all know is a bigger problem in Ohio, outside of Columbus. 

 

**At least that’s my somewhat-uneducated view. 

Edited March 17, 20205 yr by brtshrcegr

It doesn't help when people don't respond.....

 

2020Census response rates so far as of 3/21/2020:
Cuyahoga County 20.1%
Cleveland 15.4%
Ohio overall 20.5%

 

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

 

^Pretty dismal result, with April 1 being only 10 days away (the last report 3/22)---but at least its pretty consistent across the country.

Given what is going on, while I am not pleased with the low response, I can certainly understand it-pretty low on most people's agenda right now.

23 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

Given what is going on, while I am not pleased with the low response, I can certainly understand it-pretty low on most people's agenda right now.

 

For reals...I did ours in 5 minutes.  Enter the code, answer a few questions and done!    It makes me hope for a secure voting system like this so we can increase turnout someday! 

1 minute ago, Cleburger said:

 

For reals...I did ours in 5 minutes.  Enter the code, answer a few questions and done!    It makes me hope for a secure voting system like this so we can increase turnout someday! 

Quote

secure voting system

Online...really...secure?  lol. Well it is a nice thought anyway.

 

Maybe with everyone holed up more people will be bored enough to think, "Well I could fill out this census stuff..."???-nah, just more netflix and video games probably. This is Ohio/US we are talking about here, right?  ?

Interactive maps with 2020 census response data: 

 

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/03/27/census-columbus-metro-gained-50-new-people-a-day.html

 

Quote

The Columbus metropolitan area gained 18,077 new residents in 2019, growing to 2,122,271 people, according to the Census' final metro population estimates for the year – which equates to just under 50 people a day. Columbus remains the 32nd-largest metropolitan area in the nation, and by numeric growth, is the 25th-fastest-growing metro in the nation, with 0.9% population growth.

 

By numbers, Franklin County gained the most people, adding 9,058 residents to reach 1,316,756 people, translating to 0.7% growth. Delaware County had the next highest level of growth, gaining 4,086 residents to reach 209,177 people, translating to 2% growth. Warren, Hamilton and Fairfield counties rounded out the top five Ohio counties for numeric population growth.

 

Quote

Also of note, the Columbus metro is closing on Cincinnati – the Cincinnati metro area gained 9,272 people last year, bringing its population to 2,221,208, but it's growing at 0.4%. Cincinnati fell to 30th-largest metro in the country, passed by a surging Austin, Texas, which is growing at 2.8%.

 

At the beginning of the decade, the Cincinnati metro held 234,000 more people than Columbus, but that has narrowed to about 99,000 people today.

 

Cleveland continued its trend of population decline, losing about 5,000 people to sink to a population of 2,048,449. It fell to 34th-largest metro in the country, being surpassed by Indianapolis, which is growing at 1.1%. Columbus surpassed Cleveland in size in 2017.

 

Cleveland metro gets short-changed because numbers do not include Summit or Portage Counties.

20 minutes ago, skiwest said:

Cleveland metro gets short-changed because numbers do not include Summit or Portage Counties.

 

You're the 80th person on here to make this point. You can go back and read the entire discussion about it on this thread. 

Dayton gets screwed over by not having Clark County or northern Warren County in our numbers but we don't cry about it. And I'd argue Springboro is more of a Dayton suburb than Hudson is a Cleveland suburb. 

1 hour ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2020/03/27/census-columbus-metro-gained-50-new-people-a-day.html

 

 

 

Even more significantly, most of Cincinnati's growth is 'natural increase' that is, births minus deaths. Very few people move to the Cincinnati metro. Most of Columbus' growth is in-migration. They are even more starkly different metros than the headlines numbers suggest. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/geographic-mobility/metro-to-metro-migration.html. Most in Cincinnati are simply unaware of their city's stagnation. They can't see it. The few who do see it blame it on wicked capitalists in distant cities (bwahhhhhhhhh!) You can't change if you won't even acknowledge there's a problem .

On 3/27/2020 at 3:24 PM, BigDipper 80 said:

Dayton gets screwed over by not having Clark County or northern Warren County in our numbers but we don't cry about it. And I'd argue Springboro is more of a Dayton suburb than Hudson is a Cleveland suburb. 

 

 

i would bet a haunted house you are incorrect.  ?‍♂️ ?

 

 

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by mrnyc

On 3/27/2020 at 3:24 PM, BigDipper 80 said:

Dayton gets screwed over by not having Clark County or northern Warren County in our numbers but we don't cry about it. And I'd argue Springboro is more of a Dayton suburb than Hudson is a Cleveland suburb. 

 

Hudson is very much a Cleveland suburb.  Stow (just to the south) is the first real Akron suburb.  But how about Macedonia, Twinsburg, and Aurora?  Those are good sized cities that are even more Cleveland suburbs than Hudson, and none of them count towards the Cleveland MSA.

Anecdotally, ALL of my old roommates in college (8 of them) were from Hudson and all of them identified with Akron more than Cleveland, though of course they attended Browns/Indians/Cavs games and went to downtown Cleveland occasionally.  They all were Akron-centric through-and-through (Swensons, Acme, Aeros, Rockne's, etc).  From all my travels there, they (and I) thought of Macedonia/271 as "the line" when you're in "Cleveland," much like Route 63 @ I-75 being "the line" in Southwest Ohio.

That's just how border regions work and there's no point in fussing about it unless the Census bureau switched to Census tracts or something to define MSAs. Especially with Portage County, we're talking about 162,000 people, and probably only half of that could realistically be considered "greater Cleveland". Is someone in Atwater Township really a "Clevelander"? Same with Summit County - I guess you can argue that Boston Township is reasonably part of the MSA, but as soon as you get to Cuyahoga Falls, you're in "Akron". Certainly nobody claims that Barberton is a Cleveland suburb. Hell, I bet most Clevelanders haven't even heard of Barberton style chicken.

On 3/27/2020 at 4:14 PM, Z said:

Even more significantly, most of Cincinnati's growth is 'natural increase' that is, births minus deaths. Very few people move to the Cincinnati metro. Most of Columbus' growth is in-migration. They are even more starkly different metros than the headlines numbers suggest. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/geographic-mobility/metro-to-metro-migration.html. Most in Cincinnati are simply unaware of their city's stagnation. They can't see it. The few who do see it blame it on wicked capitalists in distant cities (bwahhhhhhhhh!) You can't change if you won't even acknowledge there's a problem .

Actually the natural increase in the Cbus area is only slightly less than 50% of the growth so I would be careful about using that "most" since it really is just barely more than 50%  Columbus has a fairly low average population(far below that of Ohio as a whole and even below the US average). There is an above normal number of people in the childbearing/family starting age group.

 

Do you know what the percentage is for Cincy?

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by Toddguy

1 hour ago, ColDayMan said:

Anecdotally, ALL of my old roommates in college (8 of them) were from Hudson and all of them identified with Akron more than Cleveland, though of course they attended Browns/Indians/Cavs games and went to downtown Cleveland occasionally.  They all were Akron-centric through-and-through (Swensons, Acme, Aeros, Rockne's, etc).  From all my travels there, they (and I) thought of Macedonia/271 as "the line" when you're in "Cleveland," much like Route 63 @ I-75 being "the line" in Southwest Ohio.

 

That's interesting that you wound up living with that many people from one smaller town, but that's the kind of stuff that can happen. Because of college I wound up with an enormous Columbiana County personal network.

2 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Anecdotally, ALL of my old roommates in college (8 of them) were from Hudson and all of them identified with Akron more than Cleveland, though of course they attended Browns/Indians/Cavs games and went to downtown Cleveland occasionally.  They all were Akron-centric through-and-through (Swensons, Acme, Aeros, Rockne's, etc).  From all my travels there, they (and I) thought of Macedonia/271 as "the line" when you're in "Cleveland," much like Route 63 @ I-75 being "the line" in Southwest Ohio.

 

Also anecdotal, but one of my college roommates, my sister-in-law, and a few friends all either live in it grew up in Hudson, and all of them think of it as a suburb of Cleveland.  As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure I've been to Swenson's and Rockne's more than all of them combined.

2 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Anecdotally, ALL of my old roommates in college (8 of them) were from Hudson and all of them identified with Akron more than Cleveland, though of course they attended Browns/Indians/Cavs games and went to downtown Cleveland occasionally.  They all were Akron-centric through-and-through (Swensons, Acme, Aeros, Rockne's, etc).  From all my travels there, they (and I) thought of Macedonia/271 as "the line" when you're in "Cleveland," much like Route 63 @ I-75 being "the line" in Southwest Ohio.

 

Not so anecdotally, the Census Bureau considers Hudson (as well as Streetsboro, which I would also agree with) to be within the Cleveland Urbanized Area.

 

Akron: https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/dc10map/UAUC_RefMap/ua/ua00766_akron_oh/

Cleveland: https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/dc10map/UAUC_RefMap/ua/ua17668_cleveland_oh/

 

 

Akron:

 

 

 

Cleveland:

 

Edited March 30, 20205 yr by jam40jeff

1 hour ago, GCrites80s said:

 

That's interesting that you wound up living with that many people from one smaller town, but that's the kind of stuff that can happen. Because of college I wound up with an enormous Columbiana County personal network.

There's an unreasonable number of people from Putman County living in Dayton, and I think I know all of them. 

2 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Anecdotally, ALL of my old roommates in college (8 of them) were from Hudson and all of them identified with Akron more than Cleveland, though of course they attended Browns/Indians/Cavs games and went to downtown Cleveland occasionally.  They all were Akron-centric through-and-through (Swensons, Acme, Aeros, Rockne's, etc).  From all my travels there, they (and I) thought of Macedonia/271 as "the line" when you're in "Cleveland," much like Route 63 @ I-75 being "the line" in Southwest Ohio.

 

Just out of curiosity, when did you go to college?

 

I was born in Akron and grew up on the east side of Cleveland.  I feel like Hudson was more "Akron-centric" until the completion of the SR8 widening initially and upgraded interchange with I271 in the prior decades.  When I was a kid, Route 8 was a 2 lane road from 271 down to around Graham Rd in Stow.    The additional highway capacity has connected Hudson with Cleveland more than it has been in the past.  

 

 

 

I feel like the east-west divide plays a role in whether or not you view some of the Summit no-mans-land as part of Cleveland or Akron. Sam with Kent and Ravenna... definitely more Akron-y than Cleveland-y from my perspective growing up in NEO. I grew up practically on the Lorain County border and Akron was a world apart despite a relatively direct connection on the Turnpike. Hudson and Twinsburg feel a lot closer when you live in Beachwood than when you live in North Olmsted. 

I'm currently on the phone with coworker who graduated from Hudson in 2001. He thinks the Twinsburg/Hudson area relates more to Cleveland because the HS league they were in consisted of Solon, Brush, Mayfield, etc.

 

He wants it known on record that Stow is the beginning of Akron.

Macedonia, Twinsburg, and Streetsboro are no-mans lands.  Hudson is exurbia for Clevelanders like Solon because of the easy link to 480.  I would say North of the square people are living there so they don’t have to go through that awful 91-303 intersection. Same with the people that live South or West of it. 
   I do hang out at a pub quite a bit in the North of Hudson and most of those people never go to Akron and have little interest in going to Akron other than work for a few.  Most of my other friends from Hudson mainly live or hang out in Akron area. 

1 hour ago, BigDipper 80 said:

I feel like the east-west divide plays a role in whether or not you view some of the Summit no-mans-land as part of Cleveland or Akron. Sam with Kent and Ravenna... definitely more Akron-y than Cleveland-y from my perspective growing up in NEO. I grew up practically on the Lorain County border and Akron was a world apart despite a relatively direct connection on the Turnpike. Hudson and Twinsburg feel a lot closer when you live in Beachwood than when you live in North Olmsted. 

 

Kent and Ravenna absolutely are Akron suburbs.  I don't think there's much of a question about those.

2 hours ago, Cleburger said:

 

Just out of curiosity, when did you go to college?

 

 

The early 2000's (with @Gramarye!!!).

1 hour ago, audidave said:

I do hang out at a pub quite a bit in the North of Hudson and most of those people never go to Akron and have little interest in going to Akron other than work for a few.  Most of my other friends from Hudson mainly live or hang out in Akron area. 

 

That seems to be the consensus, from what I noticed.  Anywhere north of Hudson is basically "Cleveland."

26 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

 

That seems to be the consensus, from what I noticed.  Anywhere north of Hudson is basically "Cleveland."

I guess what i was saying that i feel that Hudson is split in parts by where they live. Actually I’ll change it again. People that live North of the Turnpike and West of 91 are more Akron centric. People that live North of the Turnpike and East of 91 are more Cleveland focused.  They are living close to a 480 entrance for a reason. That was mainly all part of Hudson Township and so has many housing developments in last 20 years because of that access. 

You all are a bunch of real Hudson Hawks!

On 3/27/2020 at 4:14 PM, Z said:

Even more significantly, most of Cincinnati's growth is 'natural increase' that is, births minus deaths. Very few people move to the Cincinnati metro. Most of Columbus' growth is in-migration. They are even more starkly different metros than the headlines numbers suggest. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/geographic-mobility/metro-to-metro-migration.html. Most in Cincinnati are simply unaware of their city's stagnation. They can't see it. The few who do see it blame it on wicked capitalists in distant cities (bwahhhhhhhhh!) You can't change if you won't even acknowledge there's a problem .

I forget where I saw a chart, but it helped explain the growth in Ohio. While there may have been an in-migration into Columbus, it was not like that in-migration in significant numbers was coming from other parts of the country. Columbus's in-migration was coming from other parts of Ohio, namely Northern Ohio (Youngstown, Akron, Canton, Toledo and some Cleveland along with some of the rural areas) It was also interesting to see that Columbus did not attract a lot of migration from the Cincinnati area as those residents tended to stay there more than other areas of Ohio. So while, cincinnati, may not have grown the same % as Columbus over the last decade, it is not as if Columbus is killing it on attracting a ton of talent from outside the area either unless you consider a consolidation of the smaller towns into columbus 

People don't have to leave Cincinnati because it is a major city that is very well-networked.

5 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

People don't have to leave Cincinnati because it is a major city that is very well-networked.

So is Cleveland but NE Ohio has been struggling a lot. Albeit Cleveland fared better than some of the neighboring cities but the burbs in Cleveland have been hit the last 20 years.

In cleveland, through the 1980s people went to Ohio State for college and then came back to settle and work in Cleveland. Now people leave NE Ohio and go to ohio State and stay. 

14 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said:

So is Cleveland but NE Ohio has been struggling a lot. Albeit Cleveland fared better than some of the neighboring cities but the burbs in Cleveland have been hit the last 20 years.

In cleveland, through the 1980s people went to Ohio State for college and then came back to settle and work in Cleveland. Now people leave NE Ohio and go to ohio State and stay. 

Anecdotally that has been my experience as well. I haven't kept up with my suburban cleveland high school friends much, but I think more ended up in Columbus than Cleveland.