Welp.

 

Inspired by Rich Exner of Cleveland.com's analysis of recent census data.  When looking at where people born in a Ohio currently live versus where people who live in Ohio were born, this is what we get in terms of net gain/loss in population.

 

Losses

 

Net Loss of 0-10k in Population

Maine, Mississippi, Hawaii, Arkansas, Delaware, Connecticut, Alaska, Vermont, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, New Hampshire, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Wisconsin, New Mexico

 

Net Loss of 10-25k in Population

Massachusetts, Missouri, Minnestoa, Michigan

 

Net Loss of 25-50k in Population

Maryland, Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Kentucky

 

Net Loss of 50-100k in Population

Indiana, Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado, South Carolina

 

Net Loss of 100-155k in Population

Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, California

 

Net Loss of 450+k in Population

Florida

 

Gains

 

Net Gain of 0-10k in Population

Nebraska, Iowa, Louisiana, North Dakota, DC, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Alabama

 

Net Gain of 10-25k in Population

Illinois

 

Net Gain of 25-50k in Population

New Jersey

 

Net Gain of 50-100k in Population

New York, Pennsylvania

 

Net Gain of 100+

West Virginia

you go wv --- via the unending readin, writin and the road to columbus.

I really thought the WV migration to Columbus slowed down significantly. I can't say where they're winding up; the traditional areas like the South and West Sides aren't exactly filling up.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it is a lot of military moves to Dayton.

Edited November 28, 20204 yr by GCrites80s

2 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

I really thought the WV migration to Columbus slowed down significantly. I can't say where they're winding up; the traditional areas like the South and West Sides aren't exactly filling up.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it is a lot of military moves to Dayton.

It very well may have.  This is essentially the migration of all living.  So this could be an 80 year old who migrated to Columbus fifty years ago.  And a person who was born in Cleveland moved to New York then retired in Florida would still count as a person born in Ohio living in Florida.

Oh I see. So it's not pegged to a certain recent period.

Thanks for putting that together @cle_guy90. Surprising to see such a relatively large net gain from PA. NY and NJ sure don't surprise me though - it seems like half of the east side of Cleveland is from NYC.

Are they trying to save money on living expenses? Or is there a company moving them to town? In Columbus we pick up New Yorkers due to Chase.

@cle_guy90 - cool analysis, thanks. Could you do the same analysis for cuyahoga county for county to county migration?

7 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

Oh I see. So it's not pegged to a certain recent period.

I was thinking the same thing (Over what period of time are these numbers). With the window of time being so wide none of it is that surprising to me especially that Ohio to Florida number. West Virginia being Ohio’s biggest feeder state is...... Interesting but also not surprising.

5 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

Are they trying to save money on living expenses? Or is there a company moving them to town? In Columbus we pick up New Yorkers due to Chase.

If I had to guess it’s a combination of both. I know for a fact in Cincinnati giant companies like Proctor & Gamble and Kroger- But Proctor in particular has drawn plenty of people from the Northeast. Sadly tho a lot of them don’t stay permanently, which explains some of Ohio’s population losses.

5 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

Are they trying to save money on living expenses? Or is there a company moving them to town? In Columbus we pick up New Yorkers due to Chase.

 

Cost of living. The Jewish community in NYC has been moving hear for years, though it seems to have really picked up in the last five or so. There are alot of family, religious, and professional connections between here and there. Sell your townhouse in Brooklyn for 1.5M and build a new, bigger house in Beachwood for 500-800k. You can live pretty large that way. 

Makes sense. And that reflects the change in what types of immigrants were allowed in during the immigration restrictions that started during the Depression and continued until about 1960. Open immigration was halted during that time but select groups such as Jews, top academics/scientists, people who married in (often through the military) and doctors were allowed in. That's why you see a gap of when established families in downstate Ohio migrated to the U.S. resulting in native Columbusites and Cincinnatians tracing their roots in the U.S. to 150 years plus. It was the restrictions!

 

A friend on another forum who lives in New York City and is of Greek descent is often asked "What is it about New York? You must love it there." he responds "When my folks came here from Greece in the '70s, New York was the only place we could afford to live. I neither love or hate New York. It's just where we ended up." Nowadays, New York is considered a choice for many unless you work on Wall Street or something. You have to make sure your wallet is ready.

5 hours ago, Pugu said:

@cle_guy90 - cool analysis, thanks. Could you do the same analysis for cuyahoga county for county to county migration?

 

I wouldn't mind compiling it but can't seem to find the data I need on the Census site.  If someone wants to send me a link that contains that data I would do the breakdowns.

Limited brands was trying to get a lot of the NYC people to move to Columbus for many years. That is probably over though.

 

On 11/29/2020 at 1:13 AM, metrocity said:

Limited brands was trying to get a lot of the NYC people to move to Columbus for many years. That is probably over though.

 

Based on my own analysis on migration data, New York was one of the primary feeder states into the Columbus metro in recent years, so not sure if it necessarily over.  They weren't just moving for the Limited.

On 11/28/2020 at 8:50 AM, GCrites80s said:

I really thought the WV migration to Columbus slowed down significantly. I can't say where they're winding up; the traditional areas like the South and West Sides aren't exactly filling up.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it is a lot of military moves to Dayton.

 

 

i wonder what a map like that looks like for other states surronding wv? are the people bailing out of wv for there too? 

ohio didnt do too bad lately for international immigration, its was ranked 18th in 2018-19 with 9k-ish. tennesee and minnesota were just below, but basically tied with that. however, at minimum ohio should be at 14k-ish immigrants, where michigan and indiana (of all places) are. actually the state should really be shooting for double its numbers, along with stemming the state outflow, to break out of that 1950s comparison rut. i dk if the will is there for the efforts to do that though, with the state politics ???

2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Based on my own analysis on migration data, New York was one of the primary feeder states into the Columbus metro in recent years, so not sure if it necessarily over.  They weren't just moving for the Limited.

 

Ummm Chase....

16 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

i wonder what a map like that looks like for other states surronding wv? are the people bailing out of wv for there too? 

 

Anecdotally, they head for the Mid-Atlantic states these days including the Carolinas. 

is there any estimate as to when columbus will pass peak cleveland in population?

 

based on what i have seen, its basically an aurora or streetboro way right now at 16, 255.

 

so would 2022 or 2023 sound right? or maybe somebody has a finer tuned guesstimate?

1 hour ago, wpcc88 said:

 

Ummm Chase....

 

Probably for them and other reasons.  New York has been losing people domestically for some time, and Ohio seems to be a beneficiary across the major cities.

 

Here are the top 10 feeder and taker states for the 3-C core counties 2014-2018, not including Ohio. These numbers are average annually, not total over the period.

Top 10 Feeders

Cuyahoga

1. Puerto Rico: +1,808

2. New York: +702

3. Mississippi: +208

4. Michigan: +196

5. New Jersey: +172

6. Virginia: +162

7. New Hampshire: +129

8. Massachusetts: +104

9. Alabama: +97

10. Oregon: +80

Franklin

1. North Carolina: +742

2. New York: +730

3. New Jersey: +709

4. Pennsylvania: +688

5. Virginia: +548

6. Michigan: +383

7. Illinois: +350

8. Idaho: +250

9. Puerto Rico: +221

10. Washington: +193

Hamilton

1. Texas: +297

2. Tennessee: +286

3. Pennsylvania: +222

4. Massachusetts: +214

5. Illinois: +189

6. Louisiana: +127

7. New York: +126

8. Oregon: +101

9. Arkansas: +88

10. Puerto Rico: +88

 

Top 10 Takers

Cuyahoga

1. Florida: -779

2. North Carolina: -398

3. Colorado: -382

4. Georgia: -316

5. South Carolina: -300

6. California: -282

7. Minnesota: -238

8. Washington: -236

9. Arizona: -219

10. Indiana: -211

Franklin

1. California: -1147

2. Texas: -1099

3. Florida: -1034

4. Georgia: -1016

5. South Carolina: -745

6. Kansas: -462

7. Maryland: -244

8. Missouri: -239

9. Oregon: -219

10. North Dakota: -132

Hamilton

1. Kentucky: -813

2. Georgia: -518

3. Florida: -502

4. Washington: -366

5. Wisconsin: -315

6. California: -271

7. Arizona: -232

8. Colorado: -166

9. Minnesota: -156

10. Virginia: -127

 

Overall Net Migration for the periods 2006-2010 and 2014-2018, not including Ohio

Cuyahoga

2006-2010: -5,282

2014-2018: -782

Franklin

2006-2010: -4,145

2014-2018: +4,628

Hamilton

2006-2010: -3,746

2014-2018: +1,282

 

So even disregarding Ohio domestic migration, all 3 core counties have improved dramatically between the 2 periods.

 

2 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

Top 10 Takers

Cuyahoga

1. Florida: -779

2. North Carolina: -398

3. Colorado: -382

4. Georgia: -316

5. South Carolina: -300

6. California: -282

7. Minnesota: -238

8. Washington: -236

9. Arizona: -219

10. Indiana: -211

 

I'm really surprised Texas isn't on this list.  I personally know about 3-4 families who moved to Dallas and Houston in the last few years.  

4 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

 

I'm really surprised Texas isn't on this list.  I personally know about 3-4 families who moved to Dallas and Houston in the last few years.  

 

Texas net migration did improve between the 2 periods- from -719 to -52 in Cuyahoga, -420 to +297 in Hamilton, and -1,238 to -1,099 in Franklin.  

Edited November 30, 20204 yr by jonoh81

@johoh81 - thanks for that list---was very interesting. For me, the surprise in Cuyahoga feeders was that Mississippi and Alabama were in the top 10 and that Pennsylvania wasn't on the list at all. Over 5 yrs, that's 1500 people from the Deep South into Cleveland!

Edited November 30, 20204 yr by Pugu

Yeah, I'm surprised I don't see Pennsylvania for the inmigration in Cleveland. See lots of PA plates parked on streets and driveways in Cleveland and Lakewood.

15 minutes ago, KJP said:

Yeah, I'm surprised I don't see Pennsylvania for the inmigration in Cleveland. See lots of PA plates parked on streets and driveways in Cleveland and Lakewood.

 

It's net though, so they're probably cancelled out by Clevelanders moving to Pittsburgh and Philly. Anecdotally, I know a lot of former Northeast Ohioans who live in Philly now.

Analyzing it further somethings seems off about the numbers.  For instance, if you take the top ten feeder and takers states for Hamilton County you get a net loss of 1728.  But we know during that period there was a net gain of 1282.  This means the other 32 states/DC/PR would have had to produce a gain of 3010 which would be an average of 94 people but that can't be the case otherwise they'd be in the top ten of Hamilton county.  @jon81oh any idea what is going on?

 

If the second set of numbers is not annual then that could explain the number difference (would change it to 25 people per year per state).

Edited November 30, 20204 yr by cle_guy90
Second paragraph

29 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

It's net though, so they're probably cancelled out by Clevelanders moving to Pittsburgh and Philly. Anecdotally, I know a lot of former Northeast Ohioans who live in Philly now.

 

The migration chart below shows Cuyahoga co had a +317 net migration from Allegheny and only lost 7 to Philadelphia county. 

 

https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html#

Edited November 30, 20204 yr by Clefan98

I know alot of it came from terrible reasons (the hurricanes), but it's nice to see Cleveland has such a growing Hispanic community. That's a gain of 9k over the 5 years from PR alone. 

1 hour ago, Clefan98 said:

 

The migration chart below shows Cuyahoga co had a +317 net migration from Allegheny and only lost 7 to Philadelphia county. 

 

https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html#

 

But a 288 loss to Bucks County in the Philly burbs. That's pretty big. Interesting that so many more people are making the Pittsburgh to Cleveland move than the other way around. That's good news.

 

Come to think of it though, all the people I know who made the Cleveland to Philly move went to college at OSU, OU, or Penn State first. So they wouldn't show up as direct migration to Philly County from Cuyahoga. There's a -92 loss to Centre County too, maybe catching some of that.

3 hours ago, cle_guy90 said:

Analyzing it further somethings seems off about the numbers.  For instance, if you take the top ten feeder and takers states for Hamilton County you get a net loss of 1728.  But we know during that period there was a net gain of 1282.  This means the other 32 states/DC/PR would have had to produce a gain of 3010 which would be an average of 94 people but that can't be the case otherwise they'd be in the top ten of Hamilton county.  @jon81oh any idea what is going on?

 

If the second set of numbers is not annual then that could explain the number difference (would change it to 25 people per year per state).

 

First, the numbers are definitely annual, as they are derived from the 5-year ACS.  The data is collected over the entire period, but represents the average annual change over that 5-year period.    

Second, you're forgetting Ohio.  I left it off the top 10s because it would easily be the #1 in all cases, and it's more interesting to find out data for migration from outside the state.  Ohio- outside of the other Cincinnati metro counties- provided a net annual average of 1,915 to Hamilton County, a significant source of growth.

 

Where did you get the 1282 from?  Is it just for 2014-2018 and only for migration, or is it total growth during that period?  If it's the latter, you'd also have to factor in international migration and births vs. deaths.  

 

The net overall for the 50 states including Ohio, DC and PR into Hamilton- outside the metro counties- 2014-2018 was -549.

 

I don't know if I've come close to answering your question.

 

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jonoh81

4 hours ago, KJP said:

Yeah, I'm surprised I don't see Pennsylvania for the inmigration in Cleveland. See lots of PA plates parked on streets and driveways in Cleveland and Lakewood.

 

Inbound from PA was +1,899 annually.  Outbound was -1,878 for a net of +21 annually.  Not nearly large enough to make the top 10.

That Flows mapper site is cool, but beneath it are GIANT margins of error. Here's the underlying data--the website has all of them but here are just the top and lowest 20 for Cuyahoga County. Many times the margin of error is greater than the actual datapoint:

 

    

 

 

  

 

https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html#

 

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, Pugu said:

That Flows mapper site is cool, but beneath it are GIANT margins of error. Here's the underlying data--the website has all of them but here are just the top and lowest 20 for Cuyahoga County. Many times the margin of error is greater than the actual datapoint:

 

    

 

 

  

 

https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html#

 

 

 

 

 

The MOE are always like that when talking about population estimates, even when talking about cities/metros, etc.  They're not gospel, but they show trends.  I will say, though, that the 5-year ACS estimates are generally considered fairly accurate, which is what these are based on.

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jonoh81

kinda surprized florida isnt at the top of all the lists.

 

14 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Inbound from PA was +1,899 annually.  Outbound was -1,878 for a net of +21 annually.  Not nearly large enough to make the top 10.

 

 

yeah i know a few people who moved from cle to pitts and back over the past few years.

 

there seems to be quite a bit of back and forth between ohio and  penn, not suprized it comes out a wash. 

 

1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

 

The MOE are always like that when talking about population estimates, even when talking about cities/metros, etc.  They're not gospel, but they show trends.  I will say, though, that the 5-year ACS estimates are generally considered fairly accurate, which is what these are based on.

 

If the MOE is larger than the actual datapoint, they are useful if they are generally accurate, but not so useful in showing trends if not.  But how would you know?  The data is only useful really 'usable' if the MOE is smaller. For example San Diego to CLE is identifiable as a trend as 235 people, plus or minus 153---so that's happening.   But Bexar County Texas (San Antonio)--who knows?  The data shows 188 people moving annually (net) from San Antonio to Cleveland, but plus or minus 233--so it could be zero, or worse, the migration could be the opposite, from CLE to Austin.

 

 

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by Pugu

Bexar County is San Antonio, not Austin.

23 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

If the MOE is larger than the actual datapoint, they are useful if they are generally accurate, but not so useful in showing trends if not.  But how would you know?  The data is only useful really 'usable' if the MOE is smaller. For example San Diego to CLE is identifiable as a trend as 235 people, plus or minus 153---so that's happening.   But Bexar County Texas (Austin)--who knows?  The data shows 188 people moving annually (net) from Austin to Cleveland, but plus or minus 233--so it could be zero, or worse, the migration could be the opposite, from CLE to Austin.

 

 

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/tech_docs/accuracy/MultiyearACSAccuracyofData2018.pdf

There's a lot that goes into creating the estimates.  This link provides the entire process in how these numbers come about, and goes into detail about the MOE, sampling errors, etc.  They're not exact, but there's a high degree of confidence.

 

 

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jonoh81

More fun with the dataset.  Curious to know where CLE stands with the main cities of the top 20 MSAs. I added the five counties of NYC into one line then re-ranked all the US counties to accommodate that change. Then listed the CLE-Top 20 in order of migration to CLE (Cuyahoga County). I included a 'total' line--this is the total of the top 20. Chicago is ranked 676---this is out of 689 lines.

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by Pugu

21 hours ago, mrnyc said:

is there any estimate as to when columbus will pass peak cleveland in population?

Slight chance, probably, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if the 2020 census number has Columbus close.  As of July 1, 2019, the census estimate was 898,553.  It wouldn't be surprising to see that number revised upwards.  MORPC claims that the city surpassed 900,000 at some point in 2018 according to this release: https://www.morpc.org/news/new-estimates-show-central-ohio-to-reach-three-million-people-by-2050/  If not, I would imagine definitely in 2021.  This all assumes that trends didn't suddenly change this year due to covid or something.

8 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Slight chance, probably, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if the 2020 census number has Columbus close.  As of July 1, 2019, the census estimate was 898,553.  It wouldn't be surprising to see that number revised upwards.  MORPC claims that the city surpassed 900,000 at some point in 2018 according to this release: https://www.morpc.org/news/new-estimates-show-central-ohio-to-reach-three-million-people-by-2050/  If not, I would imagine definitely in 2021.  This all assumes that trends didn't suddenly change this year due to covid or something.

 

I would've thought that migration and moves would've slowed down this year due to Covid, but the housing market has stayed hot anyway, so I really don't know.  I think you're correct, though, that it happened already this year or will next year at the latest, even assuming a slowdown of growth.

More info. I added up ALL of the counties vs. Cuyahoga.  Total migration was -11,791, MOE  +/- 47,361.  Of course, the other population factors are natural increases (births less deaths) and international migration. In those two categories, Cuyahoga should have positive numbers. (For 2020 and 2021, Covid could affect the natural numbers.)

5 minutes ago, Pugu said:

More info. I added up ALL of the counties vs. Cuyahoga.  Total migration was -11,791, MOE  +/- 47,361.  Of course, the other population factors are natural increases (births less deaths) and international migration. In those two categories, Cuyahoga should have positive numbers. (For 2020 and 2021, Covid could affect the natural numbers.)

 

Looking at regional migration is also interesting.  Here's for Cuyahoga.

South: -1840 (with PR, -32)

West: -1227

Northeast: +922

Midwest: -445 (with Ohio minus other metro counties, -8205)

 

It's pretty clear that Cleveland loses the vast majority to the rest of the state.  I guess that's better than Ohio losing those people altogether.

 

Franklin County/Columbus has long had positive Ohio migration, but now so does Hamilton/Cincinnati.  Both counties get the majority of their positive domestic migration from the state.  

 

None of this is really surprising, as counties nationally tend to lose or gain the most from their home states.

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jonoh81

Looking at Metro Cleveland, here are the six outer counties for migration TO Cuyahoga:

 

 

Not sure if Medina is so accurate.....

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by Pugu

18 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Looking at regional migration is also interesting.  Here's for Cuyahoga.

South: -1840 (with PR, -32)

West: -1227

Northeast: +922

Midwest: -445 (with Ohio minus other metro counties, -8205)

 

It's pretty clear that Cleveland loses the vast majority to the rest of the state.  I guess that's better than Ohio losing those people altogether.

 

Franklin County/Columbus has long had positive Ohio migration, but now so does Hamilton/Cincinnati.  Both counties get the majority of their positive domestic migration from the state.  

 

None of this is really surprising, as counties nationally tend to lose or gain the most from their home states.

 

Will be interesting to see, if we ever can, the impact of covid on population migration.

very interesting to see, but not surprizing for the regional migration. most out to retirement areas? i bet many cities in the midwest and the ne look similar for that for the major south and west migration, with much less between the midwest and ne. and just look at where those electoral college votes are changing to.

3 hours ago, Pugu said:

That Flows mapper site is cool, but beneath it are GIANT margins of error. Here's the underlying data--the website has all of them but here are just the top and lowest 20 for Cuyahoga County. Many times the margin of error is greater than the actual datapoint:

 

  

 

https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html#

 

 

 

 

 

 

lol wow they are really bailing out of lorain county.

 

but i mean what the heck, its really at the top of that list??

 

a lot of loss of industry and disgruntled people -- no wonder it turned trumpy.

8 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

 

 

lol wow they are really bailing out of lorain county.

 

but i mean what the heck, its really at the top of that list??

 

a lot of loss of industry and disgruntled people -- no wonder it turned trumpy.

That data is showing net migration between Cuyahoga County and other counties.  So, that number means that is the amount of people that migrated to Lorain County from Cuyahoga County, not the amount of people that left Lorain County.

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by TH3BUDDHA