9 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

That data is showing net migration between Cuyahoga County and other counties.  So, that number means that is the amount of people that migrated to Lorain County from Cuyahoga County, not the amount of people that left Lorain County.

 

oh good!

1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

None of this is really surprising, as counties nationally tend to lose or gain the most from their home states.

But, I've been led to believe that Columbus is the only city in the entire universe that draws heavily from it's own state and that this will lead to the eventual downfall of the city. /s

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by TH3BUDDHA

12 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

 

oh good!

 

No--not good. You want a strong central county, not a weak one. Movements from Cuyahoga to Lorain when Cuyahoga is not growing mean sprawl--and that's bad for everyone.

5 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

But, I've been led to believe that Columbus is the only city in the entire universe that draws heavily from it's own state and that this will lead to the eventual downfall of the city. /s

 

why will it lead to an eventual downfall?

Just now, Pugu said:

 

why will it lead to an eventual downfall?

Well, my comment is mostly sarcastic, but a lot of people like to shoot down praises of Columbus' population growth due to it drawing heavily from within the state, something that isn't actually unique to Columbus, as @jonoh81pointed out.

^Oh, okay.  It is true though that CLE, Cincy, Toledo, etc do subsidize Columbus--whether through OSU or state govt that props up the city, adding many jobs and growth. Many in Columbus dispute this though--they must not realize that everyone in the state pays state income tax, not just them.

9 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

No--not good. You want a strong central county, not a weak one. Movements from Cuyahoga to Lorain when Cuyahoga is not growing mean sprawl--and that's bad for everyone.

 

 lol no i meant good for lc as compared to it losing that amount.

 

in the meantime, cle city can continue to grow as a job center and sell itself to win back all suburbanites. i would hope 2500 cc loss to lc is less than it was in the years prior.

^Cleveland always had good international migration to the city which offset some of the losses to the burbs and outer counties. However, covid plus trump and his policies against immigrants (and his inaction on covid and his hurting America globally) likely hurt this. 

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by Pugu

 

40 minutes ago, Pugu said:

^Oh, okay.  It is true though that CLE, Cincy, Toledo, etc do subsidize Columbus--whether through OSU or state govt that props up the city, adding many jobs and growth. Many in Columbus dispute this though--they must not realize that everyone in the state pays state income tax, not just them.

This is an entirely different discussion than Columbus intra-state vs inter-state migration and what high intra-state migration ultimately means for the future of the city.  The different causes for migration to Columbus, whether from within the state or not, is a can of worms that I really don't think we should open.

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by TH3BUDDHA

^I agree. But my point was, the money CLE and Cinci send to Columbus props up the economy which then grows jobs---everything from McDonalds and cleaners to university professors and lawyers--the demand in new jobs creates population growth. But I agree, I'd rather not open that can of worms again! This is a good discussion on domestic migration.

I hear everyone in Florida is moving to Tallahassee 

19 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

I hear everyone in Florida is moving to Tallahassee 

Tha shade!!

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

^Oh, okay.  It is true though that CLE, Cincy, Toledo, etc do subsidize Columbus--whether through OSU or state govt that props up the city, adding many jobs and growth. Many in Columbus dispute this though--they must not realize that everyone in the state pays state income tax, not just them.

 

To continue making the tax argument, you would have to prove that taxes from those other cities go towards supporting Columbus institutions specifically, as well as pretend that Columbus residents also don't pay a state taxes or that Columbus taxes fail to cover those expenses.  You can prove neither and no one has ever been able to support that with data.  This debate has been around literally years, and every single time the argument is basically that everyone should simply assume it's true because it's so obvious rather than providing any supporting evidence.  

 

I've provided data- ironically from Cleveland.com- on county income and sales tax data contributions to the state.  Just 16 counties are net contributors to the state, so there are a lot of moochers.  

 

Here were the net contributions by metro.

Cincinnati: $465,044,791

Columbus: $464,783,998

Cleveland: $309,373,270

Toledo: -$33,635,840

Dayton: -$61,920,172

Akron: -$68,397,068

Youngstown: -$115,623,531

 

Cincinnati and Columbus- NOT NEO- are the state's biggest contributors and it's not even close.  But again, we don't know exactly where all that money is going, but clearly parts of northern Ohio are getting subsidized rather than the other way around.  Toledo can't even pay for itself, let alone Columbus.

 

Here were core counties.

Cuyahoga: $264,902,455

Franklin: $372,392,938

Hamilton: $410,468,394

Lucas: -$24,840,728

Mahoning: -$38,440,684

Montgomery: -$55,265,243

Summit: -$34,032,935

 

All this is for 2018.  This information should be qualified that is it not specifically total tax dollars, but as the information says that the numbers show estimates by county of how much individuals and businesses contribute to the state in income and sales taxes, over or under what would be the case if each county's share equaled its share of the state's population.  

This even more suggests that Columbus is more than paying its fair share.

Edited December 1, 20204 yr by jonoh81

Census 2015-2019 ACS data was released today. I haven't had a chance to dig into it yet, but thought I'd share that it was released.

On 12/1/2020 at 2:34 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

To continue making the tax argument, you would have to prove that taxes from those other cities go towards supporting Columbus institutions specifically, as well as pretend that Columbus residents also don't pay a state taxes or that Columbus taxes fail to cover those expenses.  You can prove neither and no one has ever been able to support that with data.  This debate has been around literally years, and every single time the argument is basically that everyone should simply assume it's true because it's so obvious rather than providing any supporting evidence.  

 

I've provided data- ironically from Cleveland.com- on county income and sales tax data contributions to the state.  Just 16 counties are net contributors to the state, so there are a lot of moochers.  

 

Here were the net contributions by metro.

Cincinnati: $465,044,791

Columbus: $464,783,998

Cleveland: $309,373,270

Toledo: -$33,635,840

Dayton: -$61,920,172

Akron: -$68,397,068

Youngstown: -$115,623,531

 

Cincinnati and Columbus- NOT NEO- are the state's biggest contributors and it's not even close.  But again, we don't know exactly where all that money is going, but clearly parts of northern Ohio are getting subsidized rather than the other way around.  Toledo can't even pay for itself, let alone Columbus.

 

Here were core counties.

Cuyahoga: $264,902,455

Franklin: $372,392,938

Hamilton: $410,468,394

Lucas: -$24,840,728

Mahoning: -$38,440,684

Montgomery: -$55,265,243

Summit: -$34,032,935

 

All this is for 2018.  This information should be qualified that is it not specifically total tax dollars, but as the information says that the numbers show estimates by county of how much individuals and businesses contribute to the state in income and sales taxes, over or under what would be the case if each county's share equaled its share of the state's population.  

This even more suggests that Columbus is more than paying its fair share.

 

Where does that data come from? And how does it square with Cuyahoga County and Greater Cleveland's GDP numbers being the highest in the state? Cincinnati's and Columbus' are pretty close behind... 

 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/02/cuyahoga-countys-gdp-tops-13-states-how-much-ohios-big-counties-power-states-economy-building-from-strength.html

I think jonoh81's numbers were pulled from 2018. In 2019, Cleveland's GDP (and most likely tax revenue) leaped both Cincinnati and Columbus.

7 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Where does that data come from? And how does it square with Cuyahoga County and Greater Cleveland's GDP numbers being the highest in the state? Cincinnati's and Columbus' are pretty close behind... 

 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/02/cuyahoga-countys-gdp-tops-13-states-how-much-ohios-big-counties-power-states-economy-building-from-strength.html

 

Cleveland.com had that data early last year.  For the record, though, GDP is not the same thing as state tax contributions.  

8 hours ago, Pugu said:

Census 2015-2019 ACS data was released today. I haven't had a chance to dig into it yet, but thought I'd share that it was released.

 

Been looking through it... it's really my favorite annual release as it's neighborhood level stuff- census tracts and blocks.

I'll be putting together some data for Franklin County over the next few days, but the estimates show 228 of 284 Franklin County tracts have had growth since 2010.  That's just over 80%.  In the 1950 core, 52 of 80 tracts saw growth compared to  just 21 of 78 between 2000-2010.    

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by jonoh81

^If you get a chance, could you do some data analysis for Cleveland & Cuyahoga County as well? would love to see it!

10 hours ago, Pugu said:

^If you get a chance, could you do some data analysis for Cleveland & Cuyahoga County as well? would love to see it!

 

Here are the 1950 boundary populations for the 3-Cs 2010 vs 2019

 

Cincinnati:

2010: 278,509

2019: 283,552

Change: +5,043

 

Cleveland

2010: 380,891

2019: 369,970

Change: -10,921

 

Columbus

2010: 234,582

2019: 245,672

Change: +11,090

 

 

5 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Here are the 1950 boundary populations for the 3-Cs 2010 vs 2019

 

Cincinnati:

2010: 278,509

2019: 283,552

Change: +5,043

 

Cleveland

2010: 380,891

2019: 369,970

Change: -10,921

 

Columbus

2010: 234,582

2019: 245,672

Change: +11,090

 

 

That seems about right.

Top 10 tracts with the highest population and the highest density in the 3 C counties in 2010 and 2019. 

Hamilton Top 10 Most Populated

2010

1. 24902: 7,858

2. 26101: 7,840

3. 24322: 7,679

4. 244: 7,524

5. 24321: 7,510

6. 25102: 7,469

7. 25002: 7,333

8. 20602: 7,121

9. 24303: 7,024

10. 20701: 6,881

2019

1. 26101: 8,584

2. 24321: 8,396

3. 24322: 8,107

4. 24902: 7,929

5. 25102: 7,562

6. 20602: 7,495

7. 24303: 7,316

8. 25002: 7,233

9. 241: 7,114

10. 244: 7,107

Hamilton Top 10 Highest Density

2010

1. 17: 16975.5

2. 26: 15800.0

3. 10: 15000.6

4. 9: 14172.5

5. 29: 13317.5

6. 25: 13101.7

7. 7: 11543.1

8. 16: 11232.9

9. 264: 11058.3

10. 94: 9655.0

2019

1. 9: 16145.7

2. 10: 15908.8

3. 26: 15456.8

4. 25: 14313.3

5. 264: 12010.9

6. 33: 11604.1

7. 17: 11317.0

8. 29: 9780.9

9. 30: 9456.9

10. 95: 9234.8

Franklin Top 10 Most Populated

2010

1. 102: 15,920

2. 9740: 13,583

3. 6230: 13,127

4. 7395: 11,281

5. 7396: 9,839

6. 8162: 9,125

7. 9450: 8,864

8. 6383: 8,813

9. 7393: 8,742

10. 7951: 8,386

2019

1. 6230: 18,883

2. 102: 17,489

3. 9740: 16,789

4. 7395: 14,699

5. 7396: 12,252

6. 7551: 10,714

7. 7921: 10,569

8. 9450: 10,565

9. 1121: 10,233

10. 7210: 10,046

Franklin Top 10 Highest Density

2010

1. 1810: 29075.4

2. 13: 24926.2

3. 1121: 20910.9

4. 12: 18610.6

5. 1110: 17868.2

6. 10: 16893.7

7. 17: 13649.7

8. 20: 12107.2

9. 6: 9976.2

10. 8163: 9870.9

2019

1. 1121: 29312.5

2. 1810: 27009.4

3. 13: 22139.3

4. 10: 17652.9

5. 17: 16365.5

6. 12: 16217.7

7. 1110: 13701.6

8. 20: 12658.2

9. 6933: 12136.6

10. 21: 11914.2

Cuyahoga Top 10 Most Populated

2010

1. 190504: 10,439

2. 184108: 7,433

3. 136102: 7,407

4. 1811: 6,814

5. 189111: 6,812

6. 175103: 6,705

7. 175201: 6,562

8. 186107: 6,148

9. 136101: 6,130

10. 175104: 6,034

2019

1. 190504: 10,684

2. 184108: 7,446

3. 136102: 7,320

4. 175103: 7,227

5. 189111: 6,988

6. 1811: 6,607

7. 175201: 6,543

8. 186107: 6,288

9. 1241: 6,069

10. 136101: 6,013

Cuyahoga Top 10 Highest Density

2010

1. 101101: 15096.1

2. 1053: 13791.9

3. 1617: 13695.3

4. 119502: 13292.0

5. 119501: 13277.6

6. 1023: 13004.9

7. 102402: 12922.7

8. 1068: 12720.7

9. 1610: 12620.5

10. 1602: 12193.3

2019

1. 101101: 18990.8

2. 102402: 15539.1

3. 119502: 14424.7

4. 1241: 13628.2

5. 1617: 13505.6

6. 1055: 13408.9

7. 1068: 13161.7

8. 1053: 13125.2

9. 1023: 12441.0

10. 102101: 12230.8

 

 

Top 10 Fastest Growing Tracts by County 2010-2019

Hamilton

1. 5301: 44.76%

2. 33: 38.83%

3. 30: 37.84%

4. 19: 34.60%

5. 20501: 30.48%

6. 80: 25.48%

7. 265: 25.15%

8. 110: 23.78%

9. 4604: 23.51%

10. 8502: 22.55%

Franklin

1. 7207: 93.29%

2. 7205: 61.91%

3. 9331: 60.40%

4. 7209: 54.61%

5. 7203: 48.50%

6. 7922: 47.43%

7. 6230: 43.85%

8. 32: 41.55%

9. 7721: 41.40%

10. 1121: 40.18%

Cuyahoga

1. 1147: 137.08%

2. 107701: 70.83%

3. 187105: 40.35%

4. 1043: 31.88%

5. 101101: 25.80%

6. 109801: 23.25%

7. 1241: 23.00%

8. 1031: 22.77%

9. 1055: 22.11%

10. 1516: 20.34%

Top 10 Fastest Shrinking Tracts by County 2010-2019

Hamilton

1. 16: -46.07%

2. 7: -45.60%

3. 17: -33.33%

4. 104: -26.86%

5. 29: -26.56%

6. 37: -24.54%

7. 103: -22.01%

8. 4702: -21.49%

9. 8501: -20.12%

10. 96 -19.23

Franklin

1. 42: -68.76%

2. 1110: -23.32%

3. 9336: -21.88%

4. 8330: -21.33%

5. 28: -18.90%

6. 7820: -15.51%

7. 103: -14.49%

8. 7520: -14.33%

9. 8241: -14.25%

10. 8242: -13.32%

Cuyahoga

1. 114501: -48.28%

2. 109301: -43.35%

3. 1162: -38.66%

4. 1196: -37.89%

5. 1410: -34.52%

6. 1184: -32.11%

7. 113101: -31.38%

8. 1939: -29.65%

9. 1135: -29.07%

10. 110801: -27.82%

 

Edited December 13, 20204 yr by jonoh81

I have begun adding new interactive census tract maps for Franklin County to my site, replacing the old ones.  Here's an example: https://arcg.is/arL5y

 

You can see the others here: https://allcolumbusdata.com/census-tracts/

 

The old maps will be replaced over time.

 

Edited December 14, 20204 yr by jonoh81

On 12/12/2020 at 8:39 PM, jonoh81 said:

Cuyahoga

1. 114501: -48.28%

2. 109301: -43.35%

3. 1162: -38.66%

4. 1196: -37.89%

5. 1410: -34.52%

6. 1184: -32.11%

7. 113101: -31.38%

8. 1939: -29.65%

9. 1135: -29.07%

10. 110801: -27.82%

 

 

Where are these tracts--could you map them?

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

 

Where are these tracts--could you map them?

 

You can type the tract number into censusreporter.com and see them all. Just add a period before any that end in 01, 02, etc. So 114501 becomes 1145.01, but 1162 stays 1162. Search query should be like "tract 1145.01, cuyahoga, oh"

 

Here's the first one:

 

 

 

CORRECTION: It is Censusreporter.org. Thanks to @cle_guy90

Edited December 14, 20204 yr by DEPACincy

8 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

You can type the tract number into censusreporter.com and see them all. Just add a period before any that end in 01, 02, etc. So 114501 becomes 1145.01, but 1162 stays 1162. Search query should be like "tract 1145.01, cuyahoga, oh"

 

Here's the first one:

 

 

 

Just tried it and figured out that it is censusreporter.org.  Thanks for the site!

^ @DEPACincy, @cle_guy90--thank you--will check it out.

15 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

 

Just tried it and figured out that it is censusreporter.org.  Thanks for the site!

 

Oops. Thanks for the correction!

On 12/12/2020 at 8:39 PM, jonoh81 said:

Top 10 Fastest Growing Tracts by County 2010-2019

Hamilton

1. 5301: 44.76%

2. 33: 38.83%

3. 30: 37.84%

4. 19: 34.60%

5. 20501: 30.48%

6. 80: 25.48%

7. 265: 25.15%

8. 110: 23.78%

9. 4604: 23.51%

10. 8502: 22.55%

Franklin

1. 7207: 93.29%

2. 7205: 61.91%

3. 9331: 60.40%

4. 7209: 54.61%

5. 7203: 48.50%

6. 7922: 47.43%

7. 6230: 43.85%

8. 32: 41.55%

9. 7721: 41.40%

10. 1121: 40.18%

Cuyahoga

1. 1147: 137.08%

2. 107701: 70.83%

3. 187105: 40.35%

4. 1043: 31.88%

5. 101101: 25.80%

6. 109801: 23.25%

7. 1241: 23.00%

8. 1031: 22.77%

9. 1055: 22.11%

10. 1516: 20.34%

Top 10 Fastest Shrinking Tracts by County 2010-2019

Hamilton

1. 16: -46.07%

2. 7: -45.60%

3. 17: -33.33%

4. 104: -26.86%

5. 29: -26.56%

6. 37: -24.54%

7. 103: -22.01%

8. 4702: -21.49%

9. 8501: -20.12%

10. 96 -19.23

Franklin

1. 42: -68.76%

2. 1110: -23.32%

3. 9336: -21.88%

4. 8330: -21.33%

5. 28: -18.90%

6. 7820: -15.51%

7. 103: -14.49%

8. 7520: -14.33%

9. 8241: -14.25%

10. 8242: -13.32%

Cuyahoga

1. 114501: -48.28%

2. 109301: -43.35%

3. 1162: -38.66%

4. 1196: -37.89%

5. 1410: -34.52%

6. 1184: -32.11%

7. 113101: -31.38%

8. 1939: -29.65%

9. 1135: -29.07%

10. 110801: -27.82%

 

 

How do you find the population by census tract.  I've been trying to find it on the census gov website but I can't find it no matter what I type into the search.

10 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

 

How do you find the population by census tract.  I've been trying to find it on the census gov website but I can't find it no matter what I type into the search.

 

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/advanced  Use this link.  Just use the filters on the left to choose the type of information you want and for what geographic locations.  This link will generally have data back to 2000.  To find data before that, you have to do specific census site searches.  I believe there is a link where you can download tract files for past decades, but keep in mind that census tract boundaries change every decade and you may not be able to see the population for a specific tract over time, as it may have  not existed yet or may have been under a different name.

Edited December 14, 20204 yr by jonoh81

https://www.nhgis.org

 

Just thought you guys might enjoy this link.  It contains population and demographic census data going back at least a century.  The data can be downloaded and mapped down to the neighborhood level, so basically it's all the data that isn't easy to find on the Census website.

12 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

https://www.nhgis.org

 

Just thought you guys might enjoy this link.  It contains population and demographic census data going back at least a century.  The data can be downloaded and mapped down to the neighborhood level, so basically it's all the data that isn't easy to find on the Census website.

 

This is a link to an interactive map of census tracts going back to 1910.  It is *very* difficult to find mapped tracts prior to 1990, so this is an incredible resource for those like myself who work with this type of thing.  It allows us to track specific population for an area down to the neighborhood level.  https://umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=ef554b42643141829f9e8c4b8001f93a

State estimates for July 1, 2020 came out today.

 

They have 16 states losing population since 2019, including Ohio.  

 

Top 10 Largest States

1. California: 39,368,078

2. Texas: 29,360,759

3. Florida: 21,733,312

4. New York: 19,336,776

5. Pennsylvania: 12,783,254

6. Illinois: 12,587,530

7. Ohio: 11,693,217

8. Georgia: 10,710,017

9. North Carolina: 10,600,823

10. Michigan: 9,966,555

 

2019-2020 Loss States

New York: -126,355

Illinois: -79,487

California: -69,532

Michigan: -18,240

Pennsylvania: -15,629

Louisiana: -12,967

Mississippi: -11,441

West Virginia: -10,476

Connecticut: -9,016

New Jersey: -8,887

Hawaii: -8,609

Ohio: -3,290

Alaska: -2,445

Massachusetts: -1,309

Rhode Island: -1,033

Vermont: -699

 

2010-2020 Worst 20

Illinois: -243,102

West Virginia: -68,207

New York: -41,326

Connecticut: -17,091

Vermont: -2,394

Mississippi: -511

Rhode Island: +4,558

Wyoming: +18,702

Alaska: +20,927

Maine: +21,780

Hawaii: +46,705

New Mexico: +47,140

New Hampshire: +49,805

Kansas: +60,687

South Dakota: +78,537

Pennsylvania: +80,875

Michigan: +82,915

Delaware: +88,875

New Jersey: +90,477

Montana: +91,162

 

I suspect that most of these state losses didn't actually occur, either over the last year or the entire decade.  The Census has been trying to get Ohio to lose population several times over the last few decades, and it has instead tended to beat estimates.  Furthermore, they're clearly estimating a very slow growth year overall, as almost all states saw annual growth rates below the rest of the decade, often significantly.  That said, It's probably true that it was a particularly slow growth year with Covid and the Trump administration's attacks on all forms of immigration coming to a head, which has previously been a lifeline for states that have low or no domestic growth.  

 

Good to see Ohio not on the 2010-2020 Worst 20 List.  As for maintaining Ohio as #7 how much growth is there for:

 

8. Georgia: 10,710,017

9. North Carolina: 10,600,823

 

Also--the official 2020 count is supposed to be delivered to the President on or by Dec 31, 2020.  When will that be made public---and at what level of detail---the full US, states, cities, etc.?

23 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

State estimates for July 1, 2020 came out today.

 

...

 

2019-2020 Loss States

New York: -126,355

 

 

Jeez, that feels too bad to be true, lol. That's more than half a percent in one year. 

 

Also have a hard time believing Ohio is losing population in any calendar year.

3 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Jeez, that feels too bad to be true, lol. That's more than half a percent in one year. 

 

Also have a hard time believing Ohio is losing population in any calendar year.

 

Not saying the estimates are definitely spot on, but I predicted in 2017 than by 2020 we'd see negative population growth in Ohio due to Trump's immigration policies. 

 

Sadly, it seems like I was correct. Hopefully Biden can get to work quickly reversing some of the worst stuff.

8 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Jeez, that feels too bad to be true, lol. That's more than half a percent in one year. 

 

Also have a hard time believing Ohio is losing population in any calendar year.

 

Remember the estimate is as of July 1.  Of course, things have changed since then.

 

Covid fatalities:

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Pugu said:

Good to see Ohio not on the 2010-2020 Worst 20 List.  As for maintaining Ohio as #7 how much growth is there for:

 

8. Georgia: 10,710,017

9. North Carolina: 10,600,823

 

Also--the official 2020 count is supposed to be delivered to the President on or by Dec 31, 2020.  When will that be made public---and at what level of detail---the full US, states, cities, etc.?

 

For Georgia, the estimate since 2010 is +1,022,364.  If that's accurate, it would pass Ohio this decade, probably around 2028-2029.

For North Carolina, the estimate since 2010 is +1,065,340.  Pretty much the same scenario.  This all assumes Ohio isn't growing at all- or is losing.

 

It should be noted that, again if the estimates are close to accurate, both NC and Georgia grew about half a million less the past decade than during the 2000s.  2019-2020's rate was down a further 22% in Georgia versus the other years in the decade, and NC's was down about 7%.  

 

As for when the real 2020 census data will be released... states are normally released sometime in March-April, cities in May, block/tract data several months later, but who knows if that will be the schedule this coming year.

Edited December 22, 20204 yr by jonoh81

None of that is surprising at all. Birth rates are plummeting all across the country, immigration is non-existent, and we even have a rising death rate now. All that adds up to more states losing population and the others growing much more slowly.

On 12/22/2020 at 2:17 PM, jonoh81 said:

The Census has been trying to get Ohio to lose population several times over the last few decades

What exactly do you mean that the census has been "trying" to get Ohio to lose population?

3 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

What exactly do you mean that the census has been "trying" to get Ohio to lose population?

 

Not literally trying, but rather predicting or estimating.  

Through erroneous extrapolation.

On 12/22/2020 at 4:31 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

For Georgia, the estimate since 2010 is +1,022,364.  If that's accurate, it would pass Ohio this decade, probably around 2028-2029.

Georgia has a very real water problem, which will eventually limit their growth.  Ongoing disputes with Alabama and Florida over how much river water Georgia can use are already pinching.

this has probably been mentioned here already.

 

i knew peak cinci was 500k, but i just noticed this -- holy toledo i had no idea:

 

 

cleveland pop estimate 2019 = 381, 009

peak toledo pop 1970 = 383, 818

 

cinci pop 1980 = 385k

columbus 1950 = 376k

peak akron = 290k

peak dayton = 260k

 

48 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

this has probably been mentioned here already.

 

i knew peak cinci was 500k, but i just noticed this -- holy toledo i had no idea:

 

 

cleveland pop estimate 2019 = 381, 009

peak toledo pop 1970 = 383, 818

 

cinci pop 1980 = 385k

columbus 1950 = 376k

peak akron = 290k

peak dayton = 260k

 

Meaning you didn't realize Toledo was as large as it was? Toledo was a top 30 city from about 1910 until the 1970s, keeping pace with Columbus until the 1940s, and of course larger than many sun belt cities of that time - Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix.

 

It also must be mentioned that Toledo annexed considerable suburban land in the 1950s and 1960s that masked overall decline that almost all Rust Belt cities were experiencing, and when annexation stopped, population declined. As a result, the city of Toledo is a larger part of the MSA population compared to most other cities in Ohio, again because of annexation. About a third of MSA residents live in the city, on par with Columbus and Indianapolis, and considerably higher than Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, which are at about 15% I'd guess. 

Migration study. Ohio has moved from balanced to outbound per Atlas van lines, not sure how accurate their data is compared to other moving companies. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2021/01/05/migration-study.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_6&cx_artPos=3#cxrecs_s

Edited January 5, 20214 yr by Ucgrad2015
Added info.

^ each ever lowering population rung lowlight is worrisome though.

 

same for toledo or anywhere.

 

annexations aside, at least toledo only lost a third of its people over that time vs two thirds like cleveland.

19 hours ago, westerninterloper said:

It also must be mentioned that Toledo annexed considerable suburban land in the 1950s and 1960s that masked overall decline that almost all Rust Belt cities were experiencing, and when annexation stopped, population declined. As a result, the city of Toledo is a larger part of the MSA population compared to most other cities in Ohio, again because of annexation. About a third of MSA residents live in the city, on par with Columbus and Indianapolis, and considerably higher than Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, which are at about 15% I'd guess. 

 

This got me curious about MSA population change from 1950 to 2019 for various different metro areas around the Midwest/Great Lakes region.

 

The list below gives a good sense of how cities like Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh were major metro areas in 1950, but have really struggled keep up (especially Pittsburgh) while also showing how Columbus, Indy, Minneapolis, and KC are Sun Belt cities of the Midwest. 

I pulled the population figures and 2019 ranking from Wikipedia, and I found the 1950 ranking from a PDF from the US Census. Note how Columbus somehow managed to maintain the exact same ranking nearly 70 years apart lol. 

 

Columbus MSA 1950: 503,410 (32nd)

Columbus MSA 2019: 2,122,271 (32nd)

Change: +1,618,861; +321.6%

 

Indianapolis MSA 1950: 551,777 (28th)

Indianapolis MSA 2019: 2,074,537 (33rd)

Change: +1,522,760; +276.0%

 

Minneapolis MSA 1950: 1,346,285 (13th)

Minneapolis MSA 2019: 3,654,908 (16th)

Change: +2,308,623; +171.5%

 

Kansas City MSA 1950: 814,357 (17th)

Kansas City MSA 2019: 2,157,990 (31st)

Change: +1,343,633; +165.0%

 

Cincinnati MSA 1950: 1,244,738 (15th)

Cincinnati MSA 2019: 2,221,208 (30th)

Change: +976,470; +78.4%

 

Chicago MSA 1950: 5,495,364 (2nd)

Chicago MSA 2019: 9,458,539 (3rd)

Change: +3,963,175; +72.1%

 

St Louis MSA 1950: 1,681,281 (9th)

St Louis MSA 2019: 2,803,228 (20th)

Change: +1,121,947; +66.7%

 

Toledo MSA 1950: 395,551 (43rd)

Toledo MSA 2019: 641,816 (93rd)

Change: +246,265; +62.3%

 

Milwaukee MSA 1950: 1,014,211 (16th)

Milwaukee MSA 2019: 1,575,179 (39th)

Change: +560,968; +55.3%

 

Akron MSA 1950: 474,016 (40th)

Akron MSA 2019: 703,479 (82nd)

Change: +229,463; +48.4%

 

Dayton MSA 1950: 545,723 (37th)

Dayton MSA 2019: 807,611 (73rd)

Change: +261,888; +48.0%

 

Detroit MSA 1950: 3,219,256 (5th)

Detroit MSA 2019: 4,319,629 (14th)

Change: +1,100,373; +34.2%

 

Cleveland MSA 1950: 1,680,736 (11th)

Cleveland MSA 2019: 2,048,449 (34th)

Change: +367,713; +21.9%

 

Pittsburgh MSA 1950: 2,213,236 (8th)

Pittsburgh MSA 2019: 2,317,600 (27th)

Change: +104,364; +4.7%

 

Buffalo MSA 1950: 1,089,230 (14th)

Buffalo MSA 2019: 1,127,983 (49th)

Change: +38,753; +3.6%

^are the MSA counties the same in 1950 and 2019 or do those numbers just reflect the MSA as defined in each of those years?