March 7, 201114 yr I know Toledo is in rough shape, but is it possible that it has gathered in more Detroit-escapees than we had assumed or more Hispanics who have settled in the city instead of continuing as migrants.
March 7, 201114 yr sir2gees I think you're right overall... the issues are many, and they're structural, and they won't be fixed in five years. I just don't think we bottomed out around 2000, I think we're closer to it right now, so 2010's figures should reflect 10 years of mass destruction. Not sure how much growth the county will see by 2020, if any. But it seems reasonable to believe that the bleeding will subside.
March 7, 201114 yr Losing 120k people over a decade is bad. The year-to-year figures are just estimates, right? I think it's rather remarkable that many institutions have stayed alive and even innovated through such high population loss. Another decade of that, though, and we're going to see serious collateral damage to one or more of the large Cleveland institutions. Sports teams, arts/museums, companies HQ'd here... I still want to see the demographic breakdowns. I'm very interested to see who is leaving and who, if anyone, is moving into the county.
March 8, 201114 yr I know Toledo is in rough shape, but is it possible that it has gathered in more Detroit-escapees than we had assumed or more Hispanics who have settled in the city instead of continuing as migrants. The rural to urban Hispanic migration has been a major buffer against population loss in Toledo for decades. No doubt that is the group that is growing significantly in Toledo (probably the only group that is growing right now). It's the same deal in Detroit too. Detroit, Toledo, Grand Rapids, and Milwaukee all have large Mexican barrios and a healthy stream of people moving in from the rural hinterlands. They were early to the game in the Midwest, the first major cities after Chicago. The impact of this cannot be overstated.
March 8, 201114 yr Even growing cities are coming in with slower growth than expected (the Pacific NW) and yeah the midwest towns to report have all come in under the previous estimates. I think the Chicago story will be more widespread - decent growth at the very center (but weakened by the fact gentrification driven by childless families does nothing for demographic shrinking), but the postwar edge of the cities were in freefall over the last decade. The growth was in the better parts of the distant 'burbs. Not all Midwest cities have come in under estimates. Indianapolis 2009 Estimate: 807,584 2010 Census: 829,718 Des Moines 2009 Estimate: 200,538 2010 Census: 203,433 Most of the Midwest has not been released yet, so it's hard to come up with conclusions as to how the rest will turn out. yeah but we could have guessed those. i'm afraid it wont be so rosy for the rest. although maybe the indy gain bodes well for it's twin sister columbus?
March 8, 201114 yr What's the point of releasing estimates when the Census Bureau has the official numbers that may be ready to be released in only a few weeks?
March 8, 201114 yr The County estimates were released today- http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-PEST2010-totals.csv Hamilton is up 10k, Franklin up 9k, Cuyahoga down 13k Wait, something seems off to me. I know these are estimates, but they are for July, 2010. The actual census count will be for April, 2010, correct? Does that mean that the census numbers come in somewhere between the 2009 and 2010 estimates? If so, then estimates, at least on the county level, were not too far off. Or will the actual census data show something different than both of those numbers?
March 8, 201114 yr Wait, something seems off to me. I know these are estimates, but they are for July, 2010. The actual census count will be for April, 2010, correct? Does that mean that the census numbers come in somewhere between the 2009 and 2010 estimates? If so, then estimates, at least on the county level, were not too far off. Or will the actual census data show something different than both of those numbers? Likely some other number. In Texas, Dallas county has a 2010 estimated population of 2,493,102 and an actual 2010 count of 2,368,139. That's about 100k lower than the 2009 estimate, too.
March 8, 201114 yr sir2gees I think you're right overall... the issues are many, and they're structural, and they won't be fixed in five years. I just don't think we bottomed out around 2000, I think we're closer to it right now, so 2010's figures should reflect 10 years of mass destruction. Not sure how much growth the county will see by 2020, if any. But it seems reasonable to believe that the bleeding will subside. I think you are right. If you look at Labor Statistic data (even the revised 2006 info) it shows the Cleveland MSA labor force bottoming out around June 2010. After that it starts reversing trends and by the end of the year growing at a fairly decent clip, in fact it shows growth not seen since the 1990's. I don't know if that's going to reflect in the Census data right away but I have a feeling the bleeding may at least abate with the 2011 data.
March 8, 201114 yr Tomorrow- http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb11-cn71.html
March 8, 201114 yr For Clevelanders, anyway, there's not a lot of suspense about whether the news will be bad. It's like waiting for your doctor to tell you if you'll lose the use of your whole hand or only four fingers.
March 8, 201114 yr I'm nervous about Cincinnati. There has been a lot of people moving into Downtown, OTR, Northside, and I think the already stable neighborhoods (Hyde Park, Mt. Adams, Mt. Lookout CT, Clifton) have probably stayed about the same, but I think the West Side neighborhoods have been bleeding people. Although there has been an increasing hispanic presence in Price Hill, which could help offset losses. I wouldn't be surprised to see a small loss for Cincy, but still greater than the 2000 census.
March 8, 201114 yr For Clevelanders, anyway, there's not a lot of suspense about whether the news will be bad. It's like waiting for your doctor to tell you if you'll lose the use of your whole hand or only four fingers. dumb.
March 8, 201114 yr I expect that several west side neighborhoods in Cleveland will show growth, from Puerto Rico and from the east side.
March 9, 201114 yr i dont think we will drop below 400. Having looked more closely at historical trends and even assuming the worst, I think I agree. The 2009 estimated was 430, so even assuming a terrible estimate and a horrible year, it would be unusual to fall below 400. Apocalyptic comment withdrawn.
March 9, 201114 yr Data for Ohio show that the five most populous incorporated places and their 2010 Census counts are Columbus, 787,033; Cleveland, 396,815; Cincinnati, 296,943; Toledo, 287,208; and Akron, 199,110. Columbus grew by 10.6 percent since the 2000 Census. Cleveland decreased by 17.1 percent, Cincinnati decreased by 10.4 percent, Toledo decreased by 8.4 percent, and Akron decreased by 8.3 percent.
March 9, 201114 yr The largest county is Cuyahoga, with a population of 1,280,122. Its population decreased by 8.2 percent since 2000. The other counties in the top five include Franklin, with a population of 1,163,414 (increase of 8.8 percent); Hamilton, 802,374 (decrease of 5.1 percent); Summit, 541,781 (decrease of 0.2 percent); and Montgomery, 535,153 (decrease of 4.3 percent). "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
March 9, 201114 yr Can't say that Cleveland's numbers are unexpected. My work requires me to be in the inner east side neighborhoods- and the amount of devastation within the last ten years is both amazing and sad. Oh well...
March 9, 201114 yr Yeah, none of these numbers should be surprising for anyone. "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
March 9, 201114 yr It's not terribly surprising, but unfortunate that so many are juuuuuust below the next hundred thousand mark. Cincinnati has for a while been at 300-something thousand, but now it's 200-something. The same goes for Cleveland, Akron, and Toledo. It's like how something that costs $2.99 is really not appreciably cheaper than $3.00, but all people see is the 2 and the 3 and that affects their perception markedly. Suddenly Ohio looks like much more of a backwater.
March 9, 201114 yr Data for Ohio show that the five most populous incorporated places and their 2010 Census counts are Columbus, 787,033; Cleveland, 396,815; Cincinnati, 296,943; Toledo, 287,208; and Akron, 199,110. Columbus grew by 10.6 percent since the 2000 Census. Cleveland decreased by 17.1 percent, Cincinnati decreased by 10.4 percent, Toledo decreased by 8.4 percent, and Akron decreased by 8.3 percent. Holy sh!t! Other than Toledo (I was almost right on the money with my estimate), that's even worse than I expected. I'm completely shocked by Cleveland and Cincinnati. I never thought Cleveland would drop below 400k or Cincinnati below 300k. This is terrible. Akron is kind of surprising too. I didn't expect it to drop below 200k. This is heartbreaking. Everything except Columbus was in freefall over the decade. We crossed just about every negative threshold we could cross. The effects of this will be far-reaching when it comes to federal funding and urban political clout.
March 9, 201114 yr When can we see the neighborhood breakdowns? And im surprised Cleveland dropped below 400,000 And didn't they estimate Cincinnati with a small gain?
March 9, 201114 yr When can we see the neighborhood breakdowns? And im surprised Cleveland dropped below 400,000 And didn't they estimate Cincinnati with a small gain? It may be inside the a 36mb zip file on their FTP site - http://www2.census.gov/census_2010/01-Redistricting_File--PL_94-171/ [can't check, at work right now] Otherwise, no later than April 1st.
March 9, 201114 yr For Cincinnati: Such a shocker, considering how much we were anticipating to gain - not a lot, but something to reverse the 40 year trend. I wasn't expecting to see such a steep loss.
March 9, 201114 yr ^Hell, they estimated Toledo at 316k after a census challenge! I knew those estimates were too rosy because I saw what was happening on the streets. I saw huge increases in abandonment and a general thinning of the residential neighborhoods. Too often people see only what they want to see (downtown, core neighborhoods). Cincinnati is downright shocking though. Almost every estimate model showed it had leveled off above 300k. To drop below 300k is gut-wrenching. No one saw that coming.
March 9, 201114 yr ^Well i saw all the for rent signs in the city. Something had to give. It's knocked down but not knocked out.
March 9, 201114 yr I hope this will be the end of the pain for our cities. It sucks when you realize that we wont live to see that many censuses
March 9, 201114 yr Looks like Pittsburgh dropped 8.6% to 305K. I was curious in their numbers since so many people like to compare how Pittsburgh has done so much better the Cleveland, etc. etc. Looks like Pittsburgh continues to feel the same sort of hurt that we feel here in Ohio.
March 9, 201114 yr A big problem is that people, even our own, have such a negative opinion about our cities. I just heard from a friend that goes to OSU that people down there talk a lot of sh!t on Cleveland. The scariest thing was that his roommate from Ada didn't even know Cleveland was on the lake. I think our schools should teach more of Ohio history and focus on the city it is in. Let people know all the good that has happened and the achievements of our cities. And just look at our newspaper websites like the PD. The posters sadly have the view of the majority of the people in these areas.
March 9, 201114 yr Published: 3/9/2011 - Updated: 28 minutes ago Census data shows Toledo population loss BLADE STAFF Toledo’s population has dropped below 300,000, according to the release of new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau Wednesday. Toledo has a population of 287,208, a reduction of 8.4 percent since the last census, of 313,784 in 2000. The new census figures mean Ohio will lose two congressional districts, from 18 to 16. Ohio’s population grew slightly, from 11,353,140 to 11,536,504 in the 2010 census, but not as much as other states in the South and West that will see an increase in congressional representation when the census data is used to redraw congressional district lines. http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2011/03/09/Census-data-shows-Toledo-population-loss.html Check out the county map. It shows some huge sprawl gains. So basically what happened were urban losses coupled with suburban gains all across the state (even Toledo's collar counties showed some slight gains, despite their weak economies). This make these losses even tougher to swallow: Census County Map http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/
March 9, 201114 yr I hope this will be the end of the pain for our cities. It sucks when you realize that we wont live to see that many censuses I think we all hope this is the end, however looking at the census numbers...it sadly looks like it will just be getting worse. A 17% drop is just something, especially after the declines seem in the mid-late 20th century. I don't think anyone was expecting a 17% drop. Sadly, these numbers will bring nothing but bad publicity to the city of Cleveland. Bad publicity causes businesses to stay away, ect. It's a vicious cycle.
March 9, 201114 yr Until Cleveland (& Cincinnati) become "cool" places to live, this will most likely continue to happen. College students want to go places like Chicago, Denver, Cali, NY, Florida, etc and I don't see the trend changing anytime soon. I've met many kids who grew up in the Cleveland metro area who said they don't ever plan on going back. The reputation is killing Cleveland in more ways than one. I think the "Cle tourism video" along with some other things really shined a bad light on Cleveland with regards to college kids whose opinions are very easily swayed.
March 9, 201114 yr But you need more than people who perceive a city as being "cool" to move into your inner cities. You need more than college graduates, yuppies and hippies moving in. You need working class folks - the middle class, to fill in the inner city, from (Cincinnati-based) Avondale to Over-the-Rhine and Bond Hill (and the other inner-suburbs). You can only rely on so many of a particular demographic before you exhaust your options. There is a trend towards what I am seeing a need for - organizations like LISC and Price Hill Will renovate houses in neighborhoods (e.g. Price Hill) for the middle-class, and make the properties affordable to that particular demographic. It just needs to happen much more often to stave off the decline in some neighborhoods.
March 9, 201114 yr 2000 2010 Columbus city 711,470 787,033 Cleveland city 478,403 396,815 Cincinnati city 331,285 296,943 Toledo city 313,619 287,208 Akron city 217,074 199,110 Dayton city 166,179 141,527 Parma city 85,655 81,601 Canton city 80,806 73,007 Youngstown city 82,026 66,982 Lorain city 68,652 64,097 Hamilton city 60,690 62,477 Springfield city 65,358 60,608 Kettering city 57,502 56,163 Elyria city 55,953 54,533 Lakewood city 56,646 52,131 Cuyahoga Falls 49,374 49,652 Euclid city 52,717 48,920 Middletown city 51,605 48,694 Mansfield city 49,346 47,821 Newark city 46,279 47,573 Mentor city 50,278 47,159 Cleveland Heights 49,958 46,121 Warren city 46,832 41,577 Lima city 40,081 38,771
March 9, 201114 yr Ink, where did you get the numbers from? I was trying to look on the website for a more complete list, but couldn't find even that.
March 9, 201114 yr Dayton city 166,179 141,527 Wow, worse than I expected. I knew it dropped below 150k, but I didn't expect it to drop that low. Percentage-wise, that's a 14.8% drop, so almost as bad as Cleveland and markedly worse than previous decades. Youngstown city 82,026 66,982 Not too bad. I was expecting Youngstown to be below 60k. Lorain city 68,652 64,097 Pretty good. Go Lorain!
March 9, 201114 yr I am much more interested in the metro numbers. I suspect that the majority of the inner city loss in Cleveland really wasn't that much of a "loss". I am glad to see that we are finally establishing what we didn't have in 2000 - residential areas for potential and sustainable growth in the inner city. I would rather have one stable neighborhood that is modestly populated than 10 unstable nabes flush with density.
March 9, 201114 yr Ink, where did you get the numbers from? I was trying to look on the website for a more complete list, but couldn't find even that. cincinnati.com, cleveland.com, and dispatch.com all have the complete list.
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