To me Cincinnati has always had its own, totally separate, German-Catholic, not quite Midwestern, not quite Appalachian, 'thing' going on, while Dayton always seemed to me to be straight Midwestern. I dated a girl who was from Oakwood and her and her family always seemed to be pretty well identified as Dayton people, they didn't talk much about Cincy but they liked taking me to all kinds of Air Force / Wright Brothers museums and stuff all the time. Anecdotal obviously.

 

Sounds about right.  Cincinnati is culturally distinctive; Dayton is rustbelt, through and through.  Most people in Dayton and Cincinnati, anecdotally, are quite ignorant of each other.  The average Akronite probably has more knowledge of the Cleveland area than a Daytonian with Cincinnati.  And vice-versa, of course.  We all share airports, Kings Island, Reds games, and the Air Force Museum.  That's about it.

I agree, Cleveland to Youngstown...

 

Agreed.  Adjacent metropolitan areas with their own market/culture sharing a region.

Interesting you said "Reds games" and not "Reds and Bengals." Because I have met more than a few Dayton people who were traditionally "Reds and Browns." This is probably changing in recent years, as the Browns are just so god awful unbearable.

 

On the general subject, I think media market definitely has its impact. Cleveland and Akron share the same local TV. Youngstown, Dayton, and Cincy have their own. Akron is more like a bigger Hamilton than a Dayton.

Actually, it hasn't changed.  Dayton is a huge Browns market still (WHIO Channel 7, the top station in the metro, plays Browns games) and yes, even Steelers have a large presence here.  Bengals, I believe, still have the largest market share but not nearly as it should be being only 45 minutes away.

harder to move the Bengals Beanie Balls at our Dayton store than I anticipated

harder to move the Bengals Beanie Balls at our Dayton store than I anticipated

 

You will with Ohio State.  It's more popular in Dayton than the Bengals, Browns, and Steelers combined.

I can't believe people ouside of NEO would be Browns fans by choice.

Polaris is actually in the city of Columbus so I'm not sure where you're going with this part. 

 

My point was that if Polaris is in the city of Columbus (being an exurb in another county), it is not far-flung to imagine something like Sagamore Hills could have become part of the city of Cleveland had Cleveland annexed land like Columbus.  If Cleveland had somehow been able to do this, the city limits of Cleveland would be partially in Summit County.  Would that mean part of the city of Cleveland would be in the Akron MSA or would this mean that Akron couldn't have its own MSA?

 

The real problem people in Cleveland have with the MSA boundary is that it's very unusal for a city much smaller than Cleveland to not have every collar county included in its MSA, but especially so for a city which can only expand in half as many directions as Cleveland can due to the lake.  There is very clear Cleveland suburban development being excluded from the MSA due to this, solely because there's also another city in that county.  Then you have MSAa like Atlanta's, that cover about half of Georgia and a bunch of rural counties 2 hours from the city included, that likely have much less of a connection to the central city.

 

Maybe the bigger problem is that county boundaries are used.  If commuter patterns were analyzed per city, Summit County would lose many cities to the Cleveland MSA, but Cuyahoga County wouldn't lose a single city to the Akron MSA.

I can't believe people ouside of NEO would be Browns fans by choice.

 

I can't believe people in NEO are still Browns fans.

harder to move the Bengals Beanie Balls at our Dayton store than I anticipated

 

You will with Ohio State.  It's more popular in Dayton than the Bengals, Browns, and Steelers combined.

 

 

They lost the OSU license a while back.

I can't believe people ouside of NEO would be Browns fans by choice.

 

I can't believe people in NEO are still Browns fans.

 

I bet a lot of the Browns fans in Dayton are from NEO. The public sector and universities love luring people to Dayton.

I can't believe people ouside of NEO would be Browns fans by choice.

 

I can't believe people in NEO are still Browns fans.

 

I bet a lot of the Browns fans in Dayton are from NEO. The public sector and universities love luring people to Dayton.

 

I think ex-pats are the most loyal fans.  I have out-of-state relatives that are still bigger fans than some of my former season ticket holding friends.

There ain't that many people in the Dayton area from NEO.  I'd say it's more of the rugged vibe the Browns and Steelers presented to the factory-worker types (which had children go into white-collar professions and Catholic schools).  That's just a guess.

I've hear Dayton described as a Northern Ohio city that happens to be physically located in the southern part of the state.  ;D

So apparently the Browns have a radio network all over Ohio except for Cincinnati.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Browns_Radio_Network

I've hear Dayton described as a Northern Ohio city that happens to be physically located in the southern part of the state.  ;D

 

Oh, NOW you like us! What, are we now the Bridgeport for your new Western Reserve state now? :D

The much bigger issue than MSA/CSA minutia is that of attracting new blood to the state.  I am a fan of the Bigger Pockets real estate forum and podcast and the question that comes up over and over again is "should I buy a 4-unit building in California or a 40-unit building in Ohio".  The expensive markets tend to win these debates.  People around the country aren't seeing a dramatic rebound for the state.

 

The state and its cities don't have a good image and the fact that you can buy a nice house here for $125,000 isn't compelling people to make the move. 

People in California are paying for predictability. Predictable weather; companies not constantly leaving.

There ain't that many people in the Dayton area from NEO.  I'd say it's more of the rugged vibe the Browns and Steelers presented to the factory-worker types (which had children go into white-collar professions and Catholic schools).  That's just a guess.

 

Oh right, that Dayton Manliness that I talked about years ago on here.

MSAs (and CSAs) exist in order to approximate apples-to-apples comparisons. They're the most objective tool available to do that.

 

Unless some of the MSAs are improperly defined.

 

....the easiest & most fair common-ground is sticking to those boundaries.

 

Unless they are wrong, as in the Cleveland case.

 

True, but in Cleveland's case, you'd have to go pretty far out to change the median.  The vast majority of Lakewood, East Cleveland, Cleveland Heights, and Shaker Heights were all built in the 1930s or earlier.

 

Average year of construction of a home in Lakewood is 1938. The city is trying to change by encouraging new housing construction wherever there's a vacant or underutilized lot. Have to have that to maintain the competitiveness of its housing stock and to maintain its population base and average income levels. Unfortunately, both are falling.

 

That's interesting because home prices and rents have been going up like crazy.

 

With the population growth being stagnant, I gotta ask what’s the ceiling on Lakewood’s housing prices?

^ good question.  I've been seeing some very high prices especially for homes that have been renovated with high end finishes.  There was a duplex converted to single on cordova that sold for 385,000.

I've hear Dayton described as a Northern Ohio city that happens to be physically located in the southern part of the state.  ;D

 

Oh, NOW you like us! What, are we now the Bridgeport for your new Western Reserve state now? :D

 

When we secede we'll give you favored city status.

^ good question.  I've been seeing some very high prices especially for homes that have been renovated with high end finishes.  There was a duplex converted to single on cordova that sold for 385,000.

 

Wow.

^ good question.  I've been seeing some very high prices especially for homes that have been renovated with high end finishes.  There was a duplex converted to single on cordova that sold for 385,000.

 

Wow.

 

It was a complete rebuild.

 

 

https://www.howardhanna.com/Property/Detail/1591-Cordova-Ave-Lakewood-OH-44107/NorthernOHSold/3939479

 

I have noticed the same thing in Shaker Heights lately.  Many houses are being remodeled and sold for a premium, although not quite as high $/sqft as some of the Lakewood houses I've seen.

Interesting..385K gets you a studio condo in many coastal cities, if that.

 

I just purchased a house for $350K in central Toledo, one of the highest prices paid for a house in the center city in the last 15 years. We felt lucky to get it for that price, even though it cost us only about $55/ft2. Prices are increasing rather rapidly here.

 

A local builder just announced new construction in downtown Toledo, prices from 300K-700K. I'll be curious to see if the higher priced homes sell quickly. The median price needs to increase to make new construction viable.

 

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2018/02/28/Developer-plans-to-build-upscale-townhomes-in-Toledo-s-Warehouse-District.html

I have noticed the same thing in Shaker Heights lately.  Many houses are being remodeled and sold for a premium, although not quite as high $/sqft as some of the Lakewood houses I've seen.

 

Great to hear about Shaker. And Toledo! Has Cleveland Heights had the same Momentum?

 

Even where I bought in the low rent district of Lakewood has suddenly come around. Here’s a new build.

 

https://www.howardhanna.com/Property/Detail/2111-Robin-St-Lakewood-OH-44107/NorthernOH/3875785

I have noticed the same thing in Shaker Heights lately.  Many houses are being remodeled and sold for a premium, although not quite as high $/sqft as some of the Lakewood houses I've seen.

 

That's what I'm doing on the side, flipping houses, only in central Cleveland Heights. Making some good profit too, but it is nothing like what I could get for that same house in Rocky River! The cost of entry into a distressed property is as much as I am selling my flips for! People want to get into that school system and are paying ridiculous money for just okay houses. The same 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 1940s colonials you see in Lee-Harvard, north Collinwood, Shaker and Cleveland Heights are going for $400K in some cases!

Wow--good to hear the investments being made in Toledo.

There ain't that many people in the Dayton area from NEO.  I'd say it's more of the rugged vibe the Browns and Steelers presented to the factory-worker types (which had children go into white-collar professions and Catholic schools).  That's just a guess.

 

I actually always assumed it was just because the Browns had a couple of decades head start on the Bengals. Once the Bengals were founded, they took root in Cincy but not in the rest of Ohio. Not so with the Reds who were the first pro baseball team.

So apparently the Browns have a radio network all over Ohio except for Cincinnati.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Browns_Radio_Network

 

Dayton used to lean towards the Browns market until the 90s when the team moved to Baltimore, now Dayton is a very large Bengals market. Part of it was the history of the Bengals not being around and it took a while for the Bengals generation to take root. The second factor was that the TV contracts and TV markets were not as controlled so the Dayton stations could show the Browns game if they choose over the Bengals games at the time (now they have to show the Bengals). Even if there were more Bengal fans there per capita, most of the Dayton market could pick up the Cincinnati stations over their antenna and Cincy residents could pick up the Dayton channels so it gave people in the market another option for viewing.

The much bigger issue than MSA/CSA minutia is that of attracting new blood to the state.  I am a fan of the Bigger Pockets real estate forum and podcast and the question that comes up over and over again is "should I buy a 4-unit building in California or a 40-unit building in Ohio".  The expensive markets tend to win these debates.  People around the country aren't seeing a dramatic rebound for the state.

 

The state and its cities don't have a good image and the fact that you can buy a nice house here for $125,000 isn't compelling people to make the move. 

 

It is compelling in the fact that larger investors are starting to invest in Ohio. Columbus is hot and so is Cincinnati, at least on the multifamily side. If you read on Bigger Pockets, there are a lot of out of town investors looking at the area. I was at a commercial real estate meeting the other day and they all said it would be a good idea to lobby your congressman to force the issue as soon as possible on the Cincinnati Dayton merger because it will lead to a lot more capital coming in to the region once that happens, especially for the long struggling Dayton market.

There ain't that many people in the Dayton area from NEO.  I'd say it's more of the rugged vibe the Browns and Steelers presented to the factory-worker types (which had children go into white-collar professions and Catholic schools).  That's just a guess.

 

I actually always assumed it was just because the Browns had a couple of decades head start on the Bengals. Once the Bengals were founded, they took root in Cincy but not in the rest of Ohio. Not so with the Reds who were the first pro baseball team.

 

Columbus story: I remember it was the 1988-90 era and some girl I sat next to at school had tons of Bengals stuff and was talking about them a lot. Obviously they were good at the time with the Super Bowl, the Ickey Shuffle and all that. She was one of those girls that thought that making fun of you and insulting you all the time would make you like her. I wasn't into girls just yet (4th grade) so I told her to buzz off on the way home from school one time then got forced to another school by the district since the one I was attending was over capacity. But I did end up paying attention to the Bengals more than the Browns which is my prerogative as a Columbusite.

The much bigger issue than MSA/CSA minutia is that of attracting new blood to the state.  I am a fan of the Bigger Pockets real estate forum and podcast and the question that comes up over and over again is "should I buy a 4-unit building in California or a 40-unit building in Ohio".  The expensive markets tend to win these debates.  People around the country aren't seeing a dramatic rebound for the state.

 

The state and its cities don't have a good image and the fact that you can buy a nice house here for $125,000 isn't compelling people to make the move. 

 

It is compelling in the fact that larger investors are starting to invest in Ohio. Columbus is hot and so is Cincinnati, at least on the multifamily side. If you read on Bigger Pockets, there are a lot of out of town investors looking at the area. I was at a commercial real estate meeting the other day and they all said it would be a good idea to lobby your congressman to force the issue as soon as possible on the Cincinnati Dayton merger because it will lead to a lot more capital coming in to the region once that happens, especially for the long struggling Dayton market.

 

How does combining the MSAs make the region more attractive for investor capital? On the surface it seems like more of an academic change. Of course, I don't know what these people know.

Because there are a lot of institutional investment groups out there, be it multifamily, or venture capital or whatever sector they focus on that are based on the coasts. They invest in opportunities all over the US, but some (if not many) focus on top 20 markets only. If you are not top 20, they are not interested in investing (There are hundreds of smaller shops out there that most people never knew existed). They don't have time to dig deeper and see that Cincinnati and Dayton are essentially one market or that Cleveland and Akron are the same market and only look at whether it meets certain demographic models before investing.

 

These people spend all day in their office on the coasts so they don't give a thought to stepping on the ground to examine if Dayton or Cleveland or Akron are worth an investment for them. All they see is that it does not fit their financial model. Now if you combine Cincy-Dayton and they are one market, they become a top 20 and now meet the investment criteria for many of these companies. That is why this is a big deal.

Oh, that's like chains only looking at local income, occupancy rate, maybe another metric or two and talking to the leasing manager on the phone before making a decision from 5 states away.

 

Now, if the development really has a lot of buzz then they get way more excited.

^ it is in a way, but again, when you are trying to frame an opportunity in market #16 market 29 or market 55 and you have 3 proposals with identical numbers, market 16 is going to get the first look and the most interest, all things being equal. When you are looking at dozens of opportunities in a week, they are not going to take the time to call the leasing manager or do local market diligence to determine that the market is actually bigger than the number. That is why it will naturally attract more capital and investment to the region.

Makes sense. I really drill down since I'm local and sometimes only get it half right. Ain't nobody got time for that! on the coasts.

Absolutely, we can drill down and see value in certain neighborhoods. We know that Hyde Park Near and Madisonville are effectively one in the same. We can determine that an investment property in Shaker Square or Van Aken is going to be more valuable than one off the beaten path in Shaker Heights. The out of town investor will never be able to get that specific in market intelligence. That is why they rely on the blunt instrument of market size. They may miss out on a number of gems, but it protects their downside better (at least in theory)

A few pages prior to this, somebody alleged that Akron lobbies against a unified Cleveland Akron MSA. What benefit would Akron have to stand in the way of the merger? Or is this simply foolish pride and literally nothing else?

Personally, I think it is foolish pride and the fear of lost identity. Yes, Cleveland would get the most benefit but again, people looking for value would look further out and discover the gems in Akron.

 

 

If you look at Minneapolis/St Paul they are not really much closer than Cleve/Akron

If you look at Dallas/Ft Worth - Cleve/Akron are a much closer defined market.

 

However, treating both those markets as one has really helped them with clout nationally and to punch above its weight.

 

I was at a meeting a few months back with a few NY private equity guys and they indicated that the only Midwest markets they were looking at right now outside Chicago was Minneapolis/st Paul and Detroit because they were both top 20 markets. Detroit is essentially a singularly defined market but separate Minneapolis from St. Paul and the region loses a lot of clout. 

If you look at Minneapolis/St Paul they are not really much closer than Cleve/Akron

 

Minneapolis to St Paul is right across the river.  12.4 miles from city center to city center.  Much closer than Cleveland to Akron.

 

That's interesting because home prices and rents have been going up like crazy.

 

There are many bright stories however.  Numerous rental duplexes in Lakewood are being rebuilt as single family homes for sale. And the asking prices for them are quite high (like $400,000+).

If you look at Minneapolis/St Paul they are not really much closer than Cleve/Akron

 

Minneapolis to St Paul is right across the river.  12.4 miles from city center to city center.  Much closer than Cleveland to Akron.

 

 

yeah no national park or water or other states dividing them either.

 

the thing about msp is the area between the two cities is already dense and is has the hottest properties around thx in no small part to the new rail line reconnecting the two cities that helped jack up that area’s boom. ahem, just sayin.

 

In a lot of ways, MSP is more like downtown Cleveland--University Circle but a little further apart. They're two functionally separate "downtowns" with different identities and specialties, but it's all effectively one city. As mrnyc pointed out, the light rail line helps link the two much like the Red Line links downtown CLE and UC. Cleveland/Akron are juuuust far enough apart, and there is a bigger size difference, whereas Minneapolis and St Paul are very close in size, with no suburban sprawl between them, just a continuation of the old urban-style street grid.

Yeah, MSP/Saint Paul are really intertwined.  It's interesting because I was born in the metro and my Dad grew up until he was about 15 there, and his brother grew up his whole life there.

 

They almost always identify as from Minneapolis and not St. Paul or the twin cities.  They grew up in Robbindale which was a first ring suburb just west of Minneapolis.  Which even more funny I just noticed it borders the Cleveland neighborhood of Minneapolis  ;D

 

When I talk to my grandparents or other people who grew up in Mason City, IA they always refer to it as the Cities in their Minnesotan twang.  My mom's first cousins live there in the suburbs of Eagan area which is kind of directly south between St. Paul and Minneapolis and they refer to it as the Cities too.  So I think if they are more closely linked to St. Paul people say the Twin Cities but if they are closer to Minneapolis they say Minneapolis and skip the Twin Cities.  There is definitely a real rivalry there on both sides, even though they are essentially one in the same areas.  St. Paul and it's eastern suburbs are also closer to Wisconsin and that may play a role, but I think if you compared it to Cincinnati and NKY they are a lot more cohesive and that is because same state IMO.

 

In regards to CSA and market size, I definitely agree with that and I also believe I have read once where the Feds also allocate a larger percentage share of highway and transport dollars to top 20 CSA markets.  That may be wrong but there is definitely advantages to being a top 20 CSA for a place like Cincinnati, and you would think at on of benefits if Cleveland and Akron had the same MSA.

A few pages prior to this, somebody alleged that Akron lobbies against a unified Cleveland Akron MSA. What benefit would Akron have to stand in the way of the merger? Or is this simply foolish pride and literally nothing else?

Probably has more to do with money from Uncle Sam.

 

That's interesting because home prices and rents have been going up like crazy.

 

There are many bright stories however.  Numerous rental duplexes in Lakewood are being rebuilt as single family homes for sale. And the asking prices for them are quite high (like $400,000+).

 

Two sides to that story, as it may qualify as a bubble and/or gentrification worth worrying about.  The latter issue has already been raised by local leadership and may become a flashpoint going forward.

Minneapolis and St. Paul have about 10 miles of shared border half of it in the river and half of it no more than an imaginary surveyor's line. They not only have separate and distinct downtowns, but also separate and distinct vibes, personalities and civic cultures. They take great pride in being from Minneapolis OR St. Paul, often disparaging the other. They tend not to think of being from The Cities -- its only called The Cities in the Outstate communities.