Here is some of the data. If you look through subsequent posts, I added more:

https://www.urbanohio.com/forum/index.php/topic,10856.msg824352.html#msg824352

 

To me it's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

It's not that clear. If you go into the Cleveland population discussion, you'll see maps and reports which show some areas of Greater Cleveland, including the inner city, are doing very well. Areas like Ohio City, Tremont, Gordon Square, downtown, University Circle, etc. are drawing people from throughout Greater Cleveland, around Ohio, many states (especially eastern ones), and even the world.

 

Because Franklin County has far fewer municipalities than Cuyahoga County, and the land area of Columbus is many times larger than Cleveland's, it is difficult for Central Ohioans to understand that Greater Cleveland hasn't lost population. Nor has Greater Youngstown-Warren. Nor Akron-Canton. Their core cities have lost population to older suburbs which has lost population to newer and expanding exurbs. No-growth sprawl means every home or business that gets built results in the abandonment of a home or business, usually in the older core city that represents a geographically small area compared to the metro area. The sooner we replace obsolete homes or businesses within the same neighborhoods rather than at the urban fringe, the sooner we can stop the horrific damage that no-growth sprawl is causing to Ohio's cities.

 

EDIT: regarding Northeast Ohioans leaving for Columbus for opportunity is not that simple either. Perhaps they can't find a job in their preferred field. But there are jobs in NE Ohio. A lot of them. And they're going unfilled....

 

Good-paying jobs in NE Ohio remain unfilled because workers lack credentials

https://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2017/05/good-paying_jobs_in_ne_ohio_re.html

I was up in Cleveland years ago and it just seemed like people from NE Ohio, more Akron/Canton/Youngstown were going to Columbus to seek more opportunity. You did not see as many people from Cincinnati matriculate to Columbus as you saw people in the NE Ohio area and even Toledo move that direction.

 

Partly a regional economy thing, but I'd imagine UC also has a fair amount to do with that. Cincy sends far fewer kids up to OSU than the rest of the state because of UC. The faster Cleveland State can turn into a real urban research university, the better NE Ohio will be.

 

 

Cleve State will not ever serve that purpose, at least not like UC and OSU do. Cleve State was a city college, just like NKU is in Cincy. The high level research is done at Case and Case pretty much takes those grants and money. I don't think it wants to compete with CSU for the same funding. I know Case is private, but research grants don't discriminate.

 

Partly a regional economy thing, but I'd imagine UC also has a fair amount to do with that. Cincy sends far fewer kids up to OSU than the rest of the state because of UC. The faster Cleveland State can turn into a real urban research university, the better NE Ohio will be.

 

 

CWRU has a stronger research/innovation curriculum. It's why it draws thousands of students from Asia each year. A walk around University Circle will reveal a stunning number of Chinese, Indians and others.

Cleve State will not ever serve that purpose, at least not like UC and OSU do. Cleve State was a city college, just like NKU is in Cincy. The high level research is done at Case and Case pretty much takes those grants and money. I don't think it wants to compete with CSU for the same funding. I know Case is private, but research grants don't discriminate.

 

I generally agree but I think CSU does a fair amount of public policy research out of the Levin College.  Perhaps it's not as robust as I think.

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "There’s support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, there’s no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

I get the Business Journal in the Youngstown area at work two times a day in my email and that article showed up.  It's an interesting read, and it goes to show you just how bad Southern Ohio is really doing.  Hopefully there is a slowdown with the more official numbers in the 2020 Census. Aren't the fastest growing areas in Cincinnati on the Kentucky side?

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water. 

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison? 

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water. 

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison?

 

It sure doesn't hurt to have one. I would trade OSU for CSU in a heartbeat.

 

To me it's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

It's not that clear. If you go into the Cleveland population discussion, you'll see maps and reports which show some areas of Greater Cleveland, including the inner city, are doing very well. Areas like Ohio City, Tremont, Gordon Square, downtown, University Circle, etc. are drawing people from throughout Greater Cleveland, around Ohio, many states (especially eastern ones), and even the world.

 

Because Franklin County has far fewer municipalities than Cuyahoga County, and the land area of Columbus is many times larger than Cleveland's, it is difficult for Central Ohioans to understand that Greater Cleveland hasn't lost population. Nor has Greater Youngstown-Warren. Nor Akron-Canton. Their core cities have lost population to older suburbs which has lost population to newer and expanding exurbs. No-growth sprawl means every home or business that gets built results in the abandonment of a home or business, usually in the older core city that represents a geographically small area compared to the metro area. The sooner we replace obsolete homes or businesses within the same neighborhoods rather than at the urban fringe, the sooner we can stop the horrific damage that no-growth sprawl is causing to Ohio's cities.

 

EDIT: regarding Northeast Ohioans leaving for Columbus for opportunity is not that simple either. Perhaps they can't find a job in their preferred field. But there are jobs in NE Ohio. A lot of them. And they're going unfilled....

 

Good-paying jobs in NE Ohio remain unfilled because workers lack credentials

https://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2017/05/good-paying_jobs_in_ne_ohio_re.html

 

Pretty much. 

 

A lot of people elsewhere in the state don't understand that NEO has pretty much remained stagnant with people just moving further and further out.  I work with several land banks in NEO and most of our demolitions are happening in the central areas of these cities.  Most land banks are getting their properties from their county's auditor through tax foreclosure.  Most of the homes in the outer rings or hot city neighborhoods are being bought up at sheriff sales (before land banks can acquire them) because most people see them as worthy of flipping mainly because of their locations. And if the land banks are doing rehabs, they are happening in the neighborhoods that are on the cusp of becoming a growing destination.  Even Cuyahoga County's land bank is doing new construction on some of their lots in Cleveland's hotter neighborhoods.  It's not all doom and gloom in NEO, and there's already the foundation for a lot of growth.  Just look at YNDC and the Mahoning County collaboration.

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.

 

To me the amazing thing about Nashville is that the data shows it really isn't actually growing much at all. The most recent estimate released today has it up a paltry 0.42% y-o-y or around 2,800 people - and that's even less impressive considering they have a consolidated city-county government. Columbus was up 1.8% or 15,500, with all of Franklin County up 22,000. So what is it that's driving the national narrative and development boom that says Nashville is growing like crazy?

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water. 

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison?

 

State capital doesn't seem to do it, and large uni doesn't seem to do it, but when you add them together it seems like a powerful combo.

Cleve State will not ever serve that purpose, at least not like UC and OSU do. Cleve State was a city college, just like NKU is in Cincy. The high level research is done at Case and Case pretty much takes those grants and money. I don't think it wants to compete with CSU for the same funding. I know Case is private, but research grants don't discriminate.

 

I generally agree but I think CSU does a fair amount of public policy research out of the Levin College.  Perhaps it's not as robust as I think.

 

CSU does research, all universities do. It is just that CSU is not strong in the STEM areas which drive the major research dollars. CWRU is the school that brings that to the table in Cleveland.

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "Theres support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, theres no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

I get the Business Journal in the Youngstown area at work two times a day in my email and that article showed up.  It's an interesting read, and it goes to show you just how bad Southern Ohio is really doing.  Hopefully there is a slowdown with the more official numbers in the 2020 Census. Aren't the fastest growing areas in Cincinnati on the Kentucky side?

 

 

In SOuthern Ohio, Warren County is the 2nd fastest growing county behind Delaware in the state. Clermont and Butler have solid growth too (not like Warren) . In Kentucky, Boone is the growth engine for the state because of the Airport. So while the other counties in the area grow meagerly, Boone and Warren are growing rapidly.

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "There’s support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, there’s no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

I get the Business Journal in the Youngstown area at work two times a day in my email and that article showed up.  It's an interesting read, and it goes to show you just how bad Southern Ohio is really doing.  Hopefully there is a slowdown with the more official numbers in the 2020 Census. Aren't the fastest growing areas in Cincinnati on the Kentucky side?

 

HUGE difference between Southwest Ohio and rural Southern Ohio. One of the faster growing counties in the Cincy area is on the KY side but the three fastest growing counties in absolute terms are all in Ohio.  What is happening in Adams County economically has nothing to do with what is happening in Cincinnati.

 

Population change between 2010 and 2017 for Greater Cincinnati area counties:

 

Warren County, OH +15,416

Hamilton County, OH +11,543

Butler County, OH +11,516

Boone County, KY +11,366

Clermont County, OH +6,624

Kenton County, KY +5,393

Campbell County, KY +1,877

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water. 

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison?

 

Context matters. All of those college towns are doing quite well compared to the surrounding areas. Most of them wouldn't exist without the college. Columbus would still have state government and be located in a very strategic position along major Interstates with lots of flat, developable land.

 

Partly a regional economy thing, but I'd imagine UC also has a fair amount to do with that. Cincy sends far fewer kids up to OSU than the rest of the state because of UC. The faster Cleveland State can turn into a real urban research university, the better NE Ohio will be.

 

 

CWRU has a stronger research/innovation curriculum. It's why it draws thousands of students from Asia each year. A walk around University Circle will reveal a stunning number of Chinese, Indians and others.

 

Ok, and? Case is not the answer for keeping local university aged kids in Cleveland.

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water. 

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison?

 

Large, urban, research institution. You cannot compare a college town to a real city that also has a large public university. This type of situation draws kids from all over the state, but then keeps them because they also have diverse economies.

 

Look at University of Minnesota, UCLA, Berkeley, University of Washington, UT Austin, and OSU for examples.

 

 

Ok, and? Case is not the answer for keeping local university aged kids in Cleveland.

 

Perhaps you didn't notice, but the question I was responding to was about university research activities in Cleveland.

 

The answer to the question you are posing are the jobs in health care, biotech, education, etc. available in University Circle and have been growing for 5+ years at rates more common in Austin and San Jose. University Circle is home to 60,000 jobs and is now the fourth largest employment node in Ohio, after downtown Cleveland, downtown Columbus and downtown Cincinnati.

^ You're totally missing the point. Brutus said that he noticed a lot of people from NEO go down to Columbus to seek better economic opportunities. I said that part of the picture might be the economy, but part of it also might be the fact that so many NEO students leave for Columbus to go to school, and they don't always come back. Cincinnati sends far fewer kids to Columbus than Cleveland, or really any other region of the state. That has the effect of keeping kids local, and develops a better pipeline of students --> local jobs. Case, while a great school, cannot fill the role of a UC in terms of keeping Cleveland kids in Cleveland.

 

Not sure why you brought up jobs in University Circle at all, tbh. We all know it's a booming part of the city and a major job cluster. What's your point?

Warren County, OH +15,416

Hamilton County, OH +11,543

Butler County, OH +11,516

Boone County, KY +11,366

Clermont County, OH +6,624

Kenton County, KY +5,393

Campbell County, KY +1,877

 

Hamilton County has a large state university but Warren County doesn't.  How is it possible that Warren County is growing faster?  Oh yeah, the state capital is there.

^ Also, keep in mind what the purpose of these schools are. CWRU is to bring in the top graduate students from all over the world to have them do a high level of research and create the next discovery that will drive the economy of the future. It serves as an incubator. Many of the startup biotech companies in Cleveland owe their initial founding to the research done at CWRU. CWRU has about 2-3000 undergrad students and is smaller than John Carroll or Baldwin Wallace. However, CWRU has around 15,000 grad students. that is where it makes its impact, and where most universities make their name.

 

Cleve State has a different mission. It is an undergrad school meant to serve the community by providing an affordable college education to area students. Not everyone is going to be the next top researcher but there is a need to provide a quality education to area students. Cleve State, Akron, Kent State all serve this role for NE Ohio.  Their job is to educate students in an affordable manner and provide the catalyst so the best and brightest can move on to pursue their dreams at a top research university like CWRU.

 

Both schools have entirely different missions. Both are important but both are intended to serve different purposes and that is a good thing for the area.

UC is able to serve the community of Cincinnati with that affordable education you mention, while still having a larger research function than does CSU.

^ You're totally missing the point. Brutus said that he noticed a lot of people from NEO go down to Columbus to seek better economic opportunities. I said that part of the picture might be the economy, but part of it also might be the fact that so many NEO students leave for Columbus to go to school, and they don't always come back. Cincinnati sends far fewer kids to Columbus than Cleveland, or really any other region of the state. That has the effect of keeping kids local, and develops a better pipeline of students --> local jobs. Case, while a great school, cannot fill the role of a UC in terms of keeping Cleveland kids in Cleveland.

 

Not sure why you brought up jobs in University Circle at all, tbh. We all know it's a booming part of the city and a major job cluster. What's your point?

 

Ohio State has always had a much stronger pull in Cleveland and NE Ohio than in Cincinnati. I think part of that is historical. Back when Cleveland was the economic engine of Ohio, kids in Cleveland would go to Columbus for school at OSU. At the time 50-60 years ago, Columbus was just not much of a city and the opportunities and jobs led them to naturally matriculate back to Cleveland/Akron/Canton/YTown. As the economy changed and new opportunities in Columbus opened and old opportunities in Cleveland dried up, people never went back.

 

It did not hurt that OSU was getting many of the same research dollars that Case was attracting back in the 60s and 70s. OSU started attracting the international students like CWRU and played a dual role in Columbus because there was no one else to do this. Same in Cincinnati, there was no one else to handle that role so it took on the dual role. Cleveland was so far ahead with case. It did not need the dual role.

UC is able to serve the community of Cincinnati with that affordable education you mention, while still having a larger research function than does CSU.

 

Yes, but who is there to fill the void if UC doesn't assume both roles. Same with OSU. At least in Cleveland, you have a high level functioning research university in place already. CSU does not need to assume that role in the market.

Honestly in terms of raw research prowess you're probably right. I think it's just that Cleveland, with all the brain drain problems it has, it'd be nice to have a marginally more prestigious/residential CSU to attract more moderate-to-high achieving local kids to stay in town. I grew up and went to high school less than ten miles from Case and I couldn't tell you anyone from my high school that went there, as most kids are going to big state schools. I'm all for Kent State and CSU and Akron but the reality is Ohio's more prestigious public universities are in Columbus or further south, and that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.

 

CSU does a fantastic job at educating the local community. As a matter of fact CSU just was recently ranked by Brookings as 18 nationally combining upward mobility with research, the only Ohio school to make the list. Any attempt to make CSU closed enrollment, tougher to get into, etc, would impact that mission negatively even if it benefited the city's economic development. I think for a lot of us it would just be nice to have ten or twenty thousand more undergrads move into Cleveland and stick around and maybe attract people from out of town.

I think another thing that has to be considered is whether or how easily that research can be spun off into the local economy. Case obviously does a lot of impressive things, but I have a feeling much of what they do is very high-up or theoretical, whereas over at Carnegie-Mellon you have a greater emphasis on robotics and programming, which can more readily be translated into startups or used to attract companies like Uber or Google. There's a similar effect with the University of Dayton Research Institute, which draws a lot of research dollars, but because most of the work they do is DoD related, other than providing jobs through the Institute or at Wright-Patt, there isn't much opportunity to take that tech and use it locally at a start-up, for instance. Cincinnati's ability to keep people in the metro is almost entirely related to the incredibly strong ties to regional businesses that UC has. Most of the research is benefiting places like GE Aviation and the like, and of course most of the students end up co-oping with one of the big regional firms, which ends up helping to keep talent.

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.

 

To me the amazing thing about Nashville is that the data shows it really isn't actually growing much at all. The most recent estimate released today has it up a paltry 0.42% y-o-y or around 2,800 people - and that's even less impressive considering they have a consolidated city-county government. Columbus was up 1.8% or 15,500, with all of Franklin County up 22,000. So what is it that's driving the national narrative and development boom that says Nashville is growing like crazy?

 

I'm not sure where you saw that statistic.  The metro area has grown by about 30,000 each year since 2015. 

 

9,000 hotel rooms have been built in Davidson County since 2010 and 2,000 rooms are under construction as we speak in downtown Nashville.  On some weekends, the cheapest hotel room in DT Nashville is over $500. 

 

There is a lot of construction in Columbus but what's going on in Nashville is crazy.  It's not just the hotels and residential towers downtown, it's all of the tear-downs and infill in the neighborhoods.

 

 

 

 

 

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.

 

To me the amazing thing about Nashville is that the data shows it really isn't actually growing much at all. The most recent estimate released today has it up a paltry 0.42% y-o-y or around 2,800 people - and that's even less impressive considering they have a consolidated city-county government. Columbus was up 1.8% or 15,500, with all of Franklin County up 22,000. So what is it that's driving the national narrative and development boom that says Nashville is growing like crazy?

 

I'm not sure where you saw that statistic.  The metro area has grown by about 30,000 each year since 2015. 

 

9,000 hotel rooms have been built in Davidson County since 2010 and 2,000 rooms are under construction as we speak in downtown Nashville.  On some weekends, the cheapest hotel room in DT Nashville is over $500. 

 

There is a lot of construction in Columbus but what's going on in Nashville is crazy.  It's not just the hotels and residential towers downtown, it's all of the tear-downs and infill in the neighborhoods.

 

 

I was very surprised too, for just the reasons you mentioned. But look for yourself - 2016 estimate was 664,762 and a year later 2017 is now 667,560

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2017/PEPANNRSIP.US12A

 

Edit: Maybe it's a problem with the estimates, and will be revised upward (I see the 2016 number is 4,000 more now than what was initially released last year), but still. I was also surprised to see that Davidson county is roughly the same size in sq miles as Franklin, but with half the population

 

Interestingly Austin also looks to have slowed in its growth considerably during the last year according to the latest numbers

^ You're totally missing the point. Brutus said that he noticed a lot of people from NEO go down to Columbus to seek better economic opportunities. I said that part of the picture might be the economy, but part of it also might be the fact that so many NEO students leave for Columbus to go to school, and they don't always come back. Cincinnati sends far fewer kids to Columbus than Cleveland, or really any other region of the state. That has the effect of keeping kids local, and develops a better pipeline of students --> local jobs. Case, while a great school, cannot fill the role of a UC in terms of keeping Cleveland kids in Cleveland.

 

Not sure why you brought up jobs in University Circle at all, tbh. We all know it's a booming part of the city and a major job cluster. What's your point?

 

Sorry you couldn't see how I addressed what I believed to be inaccurate or misinterpreted assumptions. Take care.

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.

 

To me the amazing thing about Nashville is that the data shows it really isn't actually growing much at all. The most recent estimate released today has it up a paltry 0.42% y-o-y or around 2,800 people - and that's even less impressive considering they have a consolidated city-county government. Columbus was up 1.8% or 15,500, with all of Franklin County up 22,000. So what is it that's driving the national narrative and development boom that says Nashville is growing like crazy?

 

I'm not sure where you saw that statistic.  The metro area has grown by about 30,000 each year since 2015. 

 

9,000 hotel rooms have been built in Davidson County since 2010 and 2,000 rooms are under construction as we speak in downtown Nashville.  On some weekends, the cheapest hotel room in DT Nashville is over $500. 

 

There is a lot of construction in Columbus but what's going on in Nashville is crazy.  It's not just the hotels and residential towers downtown, it's all of the tear-downs and infill in the neighborhoods.

 

 

I was very surprised too, for just the reasons you mentioned. But look for yourself - 2016 estimate was 664,762 and a year later 2017 is now 667,560

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2017/PEPANNRSIP.US12A

 

Edit: Maybe it's a problem with the estimates, and will be revised upward (I see the 2016 number is 4,000 more now than what was initially released last year), but still. I was also surprised to see that Davidson county is roughly the same size in sq miles as Franklin, but with half the population

 

Interestingly Austin also looks to have slowed in its growth considerably during the last year according to the latest numbers

 

Maybe they are undercounting combined with much of the growth being so sprawly that it is occurring outside the city limits. A number of Austin suburbs posted big gains. The metros also grew greatly, so the growth is happening there somewhere.

Edit: Maybe it's a problem with the estimates, and will be revised upward (I see the 2016 number is 4,000 more now than what was initially released last year), but still. I was also surprised to see that Davidson county is roughly the same size in sq miles as Franklin, but with half the population

 

I question the accuracy of that figure.  There are large apartment buildings under construction all over Davidson County.  Also, a large amount of the county can't be developed.  The Cumberland River's flood plains are quite large and the eastern half of the county is situated on rugged, super-hard rock.  Look at Google Earth and you'll see how there is almost zero development beyond the 2 mile point east of downtown. 

 

Also, these projections are kind of interesting.  Population growth in the outer counties is expected to be much higher than within Davidson County:

http://www.nashvillempo.org/growth/

 

 

 

 

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "There’s support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, there’s no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

Maybe in the rest of the state, but out of the 102 cities, towns and villages in the 10-county Columbus metro, 83 of them posted growth 2016-2017, with another 8 maintaining population.  I think that's pretty remarkable for Ohio.

In the last 20 years, it just seems like Cincy and Columbus have been carrying Ohio

 

Since the 2000 census, the state population has grown by ~305,000.  The Columbus metro area alone has grown by well over 500,000 in that same time.

 

I think it was in this thread that I went over the numbers, but Columbus only has a positive domestic migration due to in-migration from the rest of Ohio. Then you have births and foreign migration to boost that a bit, but the relationship with Ohio is clear: Columbus's gain is the rest of the state's loss.

 

That's actually not true anymore.  Columbus has received positive domestic migration from outside Ohio for several years now. 

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.

 

To me the amazing thing about Nashville is that the data shows it really isn't actually growing much at all. The most recent estimate released today has it up a paltry 0.42% y-o-y or around 2,800 people - and that's even less impressive considering they have a consolidated city-county government. Columbus was up 1.8% or 15,500, with all of Franklin County up 22,000. So what is it that's driving the national narrative and development boom that says Nashville is growing like crazy?

 

I'm not sure where you saw that statistic.  The metro area has grown by about 30,000 each year since 2015. 

 

9,000 hotel rooms have been built in Davidson County since 2010 and 2,000 rooms are under construction as we speak in downtown Nashville.  On some weekends, the cheapest hotel room in DT Nashville is over $500. 

 

There is a lot of construction in Columbus but what's going on in Nashville is crazy.  It's not just the hotels and residential towers downtown, it's all of the tear-downs and infill in the neighborhoods.

 

Columbus grew faster than Nashville... hell it grew faster than Austin last year, despite significantly smaller city limits.  It was the 8th fastest-growing city in the country by numerical change last year.  Regardless whether total construction is less than Nashville, the city is legitimately becoming a real boomtown.  It seems those Southern cities mostly see their growth in the far-flung suburban sprawl rather than in their cores, where the opposite is true in Columbus.  Franklin County sees almost 3/4s of the metro growth, and Columbus by itself about 50%.  And of that 50%, a little more than 60% of it has occurred close to the core rather than the suburban fringe.  I think people underestimate what's going on there.  If we're judging an area or city where growth is actually occurring, Sun Belt cities are very weak.  Remember in 2010 how Atlanta's city population was found to be significantly lower than estimated?  It's because people are largely avoiding the cores in these cities.

 

^ The thing about Nashville and It will always have this advantage over Columbus and Cincinnati is that Nashville has a much larger tourism business and also has the high profile music business to give it additional exposure.  Attending a number of real estate conferences, Nashville always has a lot more cranes in the ground and developments (especially apartments) than Columbus, Cincy, Indy, etc. and has been that way for 30 years.  The one thing that Nashville has and Columbus cant really compete with is that there are a number of people who get 2nd or 3rd homes in Nashville and use it as a trophy property whereas you don't have that in Columbus.  It is like the luxury housing market in NYC, LA, San Fran or Miami where luxury investors purchase property and it largely sits vacant most of the time. THis brings adds a few units to the market that otherwise should not be there but more so it brings exposure to a market from an investment front.  Given Nashville's position as a music town, you will have this much more than you could have it in Columbus.

Yeah no doubt Columbus seems to becoming a true boom town.

 

I was under the impression for awhile that it was growing like Indianapolis, and maybe that was just a short observation, but now it is really off on it's own in terms of growth in the Midwest, truly booming.

 

As for Cincinnati, it is great news that we are starting to grow a bit more, I think last year the city population gained 1,200 people according to these estimates which was the most of any year I believe since 2010.  It isn't great growth by any means but compared to where it was it is really good.

 

This board has been dominated by what Cincinnati can do, etc.  I think it is on the right path.  I think the big thing is getting the metro transportation part figured out.  If Cincinnati can do that then I believe it would be more attractive to more companies looking to expand.

 

Also, the continued redevelopment of downtown and OTR is important for the health of the region.  This is what would attract a lot of people from out of state and also in state initially to give Cincinnati a try. 

If we want to counter-act sprawl in Greater Cleveland and reduce poverty in Cleveland, we need to do more than link the immobile labor force in Cleveland's inner city and its inner-ring suburbs to the 15,000 unfilled jobs in Solon, and thousands more in other suburbs. We need to bring housing and jobs and services within a 5- to 10-minute walk of EXISTING high-capacity transit. Here are some policy tools to encourage that activity: http://smartgrowth.umd.edu/assets/documents/plcc/20140702_tod_policy_toolkit.pdf

 

The effort to develop around high-capacity transit has only just begun and is producing tangible results on the landscape....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sadly, this is just a drop in the bucket compared to what's needed to tip the scales. Population loss in the mother city of Cleveland has slowed but not stopped. Merely leading the region each year in new housing starts isn't enough. The replacement of obsolete housing stock and businesses has to be achieved almost entirely within the city of Cleveland and its inner-ring suburbs, not at the urban fringe. The time to start that is now, if not 60 years ago.

KJP[/member], do you think it would be more advantageous to selectively renovate and teardown/rebuild specific homes throughout the city and organically try to update housing stock that way, or does Cleveland need to go neo-urban renewal on these failed neighborhoods, clearcut the whole area, and then hand it off for cheap to a developer to do with it as he pleases? Obviously a lot of the former has been happening on the west side, and even more obviously the latter didn't work out too well the last time we tried it with Central, but I honestly am not sure how else to convince people to move to the east side without returning it to nature and trying again.

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "There’s support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, there’s no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

Maybe in the rest of the state, but out of the 102 cities, towns and villages in the 10-county Columbus metro, 83 of them posted growth 2016-2017, with another 8 maintaining population.  I think that's pretty remarkable for Ohio.

 

If you're from close to Columbus you don't have to leave. You may want to leave to live in a city with rail transit. Even if your small town has no jobs itself you can drive 15 minutes to Groveport, Obetz, Reynoldsburg or West Jeff for a warehouse job.

^ The thing about Nashville and It will always have this advantage over Columbus and Cincinnati is that Nashville has a much larger tourism business and also has the high profile music business to give it additional exposure.  Attending a number of real estate conferences, Nashville always has a lot more cranes in the ground and developments (especially apartments) than Columbus, Cincy, Indy, etc. and has been that way for 30 years.  The one thing that Nashville has and Columbus cant really compete with is that there are a number of people who get 2nd or 3rd homes in Nashville and use it as a trophy property whereas you don't have that in Columbus.  It is like the luxury housing market in NYC, LA, San Fran or Miami where luxury investors purchase property and it largely sits vacant most of the time. THis brings adds a few units to the market that otherwise should not be there but more so it brings exposure to a market from an investment front.  Given Nashville's position as a music town, you will have this much more than you could have it in Columbus.

 

Maybe not "Snowbirds" but instead "Boot Scooters".

KJP[/member], do you think it would be more advantageous to selectively renovate and teardown/rebuild specific homes throughout the city and organically try to update housing stock that way, or does Cleveland need to go neo-urban renewal on these failed neighborhoods, clearcut the whole area, and then hand it off for cheap to a developer to do with it as he pleases?

 

Some, or even many east side neighborhoods are emptying on their own, and that already has opened up land for development. This probably will continue. But clearing people out urban-renewal style is morally questionable and has never worked either. Where are you going to send the people you're clearing out? What east side resident will vote for a council member who is going to vote to clear out their own ward?

 

Another issue - the city has more empty areas than it can currently deal with, why empty out others intentionally? Just focus on current abandoned properties. If you look out the window while riding the HealthLine, some blocks it looks a trip through the great plains. Plenty of available land for when demand comes.

 

On the east side, the city needs to focus on economic development in the Euclid corridor and on connecting surrounding neighborhoods to jobs there. Residential development is starting to pop up around UC and that will continue.

KJP[/member], do you think it would be more advantageous to selectively renovate and teardown/rebuild specific homes throughout the city and organically try to update housing stock that way, or does Cleveland need to go neo-urban renewal on these failed neighborhoods, clearcut the whole area, and then hand it off for cheap to a developer to do with it as he pleases? Obviously a lot of the former has been happening on the west side, and even more obviously the latter didn't work out too well the last time we tried it with Central, but I honestly am not sure how else to convince people to move to the east side without returning it to nature and trying again.

 

Some areas got so bad that they probably had to wipe the slate clean (return to nature) and start over. But not all neighborhoods are like that. Even Hough, as bad as it was, never became an urban prairie and has seen a tremendous amount of housing development. And I disagree that it didn't work out in Central. I think there's a lot of decent housing in Central with more under construction -- including replacing warehouse-style public housing that dates to the 1930s. In 1940, Central had anywhere from 70,000 to 100,000 residents (depending on the source) and then dropped to 13,788 in 1990, slowed its drop to 12,107 in 2000 and actually increased to 12,378 in 2010. I would call that the first chapter in a possible success story. But I would hope that we could address the prevalence of obsolete housing with infill development and renovations, rather than clear-cutting, wherever possible.

KJP[/member], do you think it would be more advantageous to selectively renovate and teardown/rebuild specific homes throughout the city and organically try to update housing stock that way, or does Cleveland need to go neo-urban renewal on these failed neighborhoods, clearcut the whole area, and then hand it off for cheap to a developer to do with it as he pleases? Obviously a lot of the former has been happening on the west side, and even more obviously the latter didn't work out too well the last time we tried it with Central, but I honestly am not sure how else to convince people to move to the east side without returning it to nature and trying again.

 

That's what the plan is though I would hesitate to list Central as a success story.  Cleveland needs to decide what kind of city it wants to be.  We're guided by inconsistent visions while Columbus has settled on a path of mixed use and core density.  Columbus runs radio ads in Cleveland asking us to come experience their walkable neighborhoods.  Cleveland is still tearing them down and replacing with suburb.  No end in sight for that policy.  I'd like to see a clear and sensible plan established first, then demo.  Sensible plans might even involve less demo.

I think there's an interesting point in the fact that unlike Detroit and St. Louis, Cleveland has comparatively little swaths of urban prairie. I would definitely agree that "strategic infill and updating of housing stock" would be the most desirable but it's definitely tricky from a sociology perspective to get people to trickle back into these places when they're surrounded by blight and "bad influences" in all directions.

^ The thing about Nashville and It will always have this advantage over Columbus and Cincinnati is that Nashville has a much larger tourism business and also has the high profile music business to give it additional exposure.  Attending a number of real estate conferences, Nashville always has a lot more cranes in the ground and developments (especially apartments) than Columbus, Cincy, Indy, etc. and has been that way for 30 years.  The one thing that Nashville has and Columbus cant really compete with is that there are a number of people who get 2nd or 3rd homes in Nashville and use it as a trophy property whereas you don't have that in Columbus.  It is like the luxury housing market in NYC, LA, San Fran or Miami where luxury investors purchase property and it largely sits vacant most of the time. THis brings adds a few units to the market that otherwise should not be there but more so it brings exposure to a market from an investment front.  Given Nashville's position as a music town, you will have this much more than you could have it in Columbus.

 

Tourism maybe, but I think Ohio and its cities in general receives far more tourism than people think.  Ohio in tourism dollars beats almost all the South except I think Florida and Texas. 

And all that tourism hasn't translated to growth.  Nashville is incorporated into its county the way Indianapolis is, so its city limits are much larger than Columbus or any Ohio city.  Yet it had less than 3,000 people move there last year.  For all the supposed building, tourism and national reputation, it's consistently had weak population growth, especially for such a large area.  Tourism apparently doesn't translate to quality of life issues that are attractive to real movers.  Nashville is clearly being overrated by many.

Nashville doesn't have a major state university (the big 45,000 student UT campus is in Knoxville) and it's growing like crazy.  Knoxville is treading water.

 

This whole thing about OSU isn't true.  Population movements to non-vacation/retirement cities are following jobs.  A large state university does not necessarily create jobs.  UT Knoxville is one example.  There are plenty of others.  Is Ann Arbor booming?  Bloomington?  Urbana?  Athens, GA?  Athens, OH?  State College?  Madison?

 

 

I agree that UT hasn't turned Knoxville into a booming area, but that said, its metro has ok population growth.

 

 

From the metro estimates released earlier this year for TN's biggest metros...

 

 

metro - 2017 population - 1-year change -% change

Nashville...1,903,045...34,190...1.8

Memphis...1,348,260...3,067...0.2

Knoxville...877,104...9,234...1.1

Chattanooga...556,548...4,591...0.8

Kingsport-Bristol...306,659...766...0.3

Clarksville...285,042...4,199...1.5

Johnson City...202,053...710...0.4

 

I don't know much about Clarksville, but it seems to be close enough to Nashville's orbit to benefit from it.

 

Johnson City, is in the far eastern part of the state and appears to be a struggling smaller metro.

 

Knoxville should be doing better given its assets, but 9K ain't bad in a year for its size

 

Memphis, well, now that's treading water.

 

 

Why Do Americans Stay When Their Town Has No Future?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-23/why-do-americans-stay-when-their-town-has-no-future

 

Related to the population and economic trends in Ohio (specifically Adams County), I thought this was a super interesting read. When silver mining cities in Nevada became ghost towns that made sense, so should we let the coal towns in Southeast Ohio or West Virginia die as well?

 

To me the money quote is "There’s support on the left for public investment in struggling areas, but less so, he says, when it comes to communities that are increasingly voting Republican and whose decline is linked to fossil fuels. On the right, he says, there’s no appetite for public investment, period."

 

It's clear that many Ohioan's ARE leaving the smaller and more post-industrial cities to either Columbus or leaving the state entirely, as shown in the census today.

 

Maybe in the rest of the state, but out of the 102 cities, towns and villages in the 10-county Columbus metro, 83 of them posted growth 2016-2017, with another 8 maintaining population.  I think that's pretty remarkable for Ohio.

 

If you're from close to Columbus you don't have to leave. You may want to leave to live in a city with rail transit. Even if your small town has no jobs itself you can drive 15 minutes to Groveport, Obetz, Reynoldsburg or West Jeff for a warehouse job.

 

What's interesting is that there's some evidence that when Perry and Hocking counties were added to the Columbus metro, populations in their towns and villages stabilized and have even increased.  Yet proximity didn't change.  You're right that proximity to a good job market helps, but I really think that there may be some positive feedback in general about being part of the region. 

hand it off for cheap to a developer to do with it as he pleases?

 

Why do the developer gotta be a dude, smh

 

(Just messing with you :P)

 

That's what the plan is though I would hesitate to list Central as a success story.  Cleveland needs to decide what kind of city it wants to be.  We're guided by inconsistent visions while Columbus has settled on a path of mixed use and core density.  Columbus runs radio ads in Cleveland asking us to come experience their walkable neighborhoods.  Cleveland is still tearing them down and replacing with suburb.  No end in sight for that policy.  I'd like to see a clear and sensible plan established first, then demo.  Sensible plans might even involve less demo.

 

That's an overreaction and over-generalization. There are some very wonderful pedestrian-friendly developments in Cleveland, just as there are some monstrously car-centric developments in Columbus. All cities have their developments that are liked/not liked by urbanists.

 

I agree that UT hasn't turned Knoxville into a booming area, but that said, its metro has ok population growth.

 

It's sort of amazing that the Oak Ridge national lab hasn't resulted in a tech spin-off of any kind.  When I lived there in the late 90s, a small Knoxville start-up invented the photo stitching software that is now ubiquitous on camera phone panorama modes.  They initially invented it for online real estate listings.  I can't remember what they were called but I'm pretty sure they sold the technology in the early 2000s and disappeared.  I visited their office around 1999.  It was the classic dot-com thing -- old rehabbed building with ping pong and air hockey tables in the lobby. 

 

As for "trophy" homes in Nashville -- I suppose that there are some of those but probably just a few hundred.  I can't imagine that that phenomenon alone is putting much pressure on the market.  The residential prices are out-of-control for flyover country because a lot of people are moving there from more expensive markets, especially California.  So there are a lot of cash buyers plunking down $600k for flips.