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I know this is more Columbus-centric, but since we're on the subject, here was the average annual net breakdown by state for the Columbus metro domestic migration 2012-2016.

New Jersey: +1,048

Michigan: +989

New York: +767

West Virginia: +767

Virginia: +593

Washington: +530

Indiana: +475

Pennsylvania: +394

New Hampshire: +391

Alabama: +336

Alaska: +282

Massachusetts: +281

Puerto Rico: +264

Illinois: +257

Connecticut: +234

Rhode Island: +222

Minnesota: +191

Nevada: +184

Washington, DC: +142

Colorado: +141

North Carolina: +135

Maryland: +125

Delaware: +117

Arkansas: +92

Iowa: +92

Maine: +71

Wyoming: +23

Vermont: +17

Oklahoma: +14

Tennessee: -1

Kentucky: -4

Utah: -6

Kansas: -7

Mississippi: -26

Nebraska: -42

Montana: -49

Louisiana: -86

Oregon: -91

Wisconsin: -91

Hawaii: -96

South Dakota: -102

New Mexico: -105

Idaho: -137

North Dakota: -147

Missouri: -323

Arizona: -389

California: -501

Texas: -590

South Carolina: -767

Georgia: -1,189

Florida: -2,286

 

I can't say I approve of the Ohioan love for Florida, yet it alone attracts more net than almost the next 3 net loss states combined. 

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So 2018 county numbers aren't out yet but I thought I'd take a look at where growth has been happening from 2010 to 2017. Only 28 of 88 counties have seen positive growth. 

 

State of Ohio: +121,879

 

Top 10 Counties:

 

Franklin County, Ohio: +128,452

Delaware County, Ohio: +26,275

Warren County, Ohio: +16,049

Butler County, Ohio: +12,474

Hamilton County, Ohio: +11,434

Fairfield County, Ohio: +8,556

Licking County, Ohio: +6,956

Clermont County, Ohio: +6,862

Lorain County, Ohio: +6,555

Medina County, Ohio: +6,038

 

Bottom 10 Counties:

 

Scioto County, Ohio: -3,568

Montgomery County, Ohio: -3,634

Ashtabula County, Ohio: -3,681

Clark County, Ohio: -3,790

Richland County, Ohio: -3,887

Columbiana County, Ohio: -4,764

Mahoning County, Ohio: -9,011

Trumbull County, Ohio: -9,938

Lucas County, Ohio: -10,928

Cuyahoga County, Ohio: -31,595

 

Cleveland's job growth rate is almost double that of Columbus and Cincinnati thus far in 2018. The actual 2020 census numbers are going to shock some people on this forum.

36 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Florida: -2,286

 

I can't say I approve of the Ohioan love for Florida, yet it alone attracts more net than almost the next 3 net loss states combined. 

 

Florida has grown from about 4 million in 1950 to about 20 million today.  Some people who retire to Florida move back when they become too ill to take care of themselves, so we don't permanently lose some Ohioans, although when they move back, they only manage to bump the population for the short period they stay alive. 

 

16 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

Cleveland's job growth rate is almost double that of Columbus and Cincinnati thus far in 2018. The actual 2020 census numbers are going to shock some people on this forum.

 

Um, 2020 or 1920?

Edited by jmecklenborg

15 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

Cleveland's job growth rate is almost double that of Columbus and Cincinnati thus far in 2018. The actual 2020 census numbers are going to shock some people on this forum.

 

Source? I'm not saying you're wrong, I just haven't seen this data. 

 

Looking at job growth from 2016 to 2017 from the QCEW:

 

Franklin County - 738,559 jobs to 749,025. An increase of 10,466 or 1.4%.

Hamilton County - 509,034 jobs to 515,161. An increase of 6,127 or 1.2%. 

Cuyahoga County - 719,480 jobs to 720,084. An increase of 604 or 0.1%.

 

If Cleveland's job rate is really double that of Cbus and Cincy this year that would indicate a really stark change of direction. 

^Keep in mind that Franklin County statistics are a better indication of Columbus's overall trends than is Hamilton County. 

 

As we have discussed here previously, not only is 1/4 to 1/3 of the Cincinnati metro area in Kentucky, fully 1/3 of Hamilton County does not have sewers and/or is on a flood plain and cannot be developed. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.2255546,-84.7903974,3727m/data=!3m1!1e3

41 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

Cleveland's job growth rate is almost double that of Columbus and Cincinnati thus far in 2018. The actual 2020 census numbers are going to shock some people on this forum.

 

It's really not a bad thing to be positive but you have to be realistic, and this is not. 

 

I believe that population and economic growth rates are being undercounted but I think the Columbus numbers and Cincy numbers will be the shockers to be fair. If I had to guess, I'd say CBUS is being significantly undercounted and Cincy to a lesser extent. I expect 2020 results to show hefty boosts for Columbus, large boots for Cincinnati, and stable numbers for Cleveland. Stability isn't bad, but I really doubt it's going to shock anyone. 

15 minutes ago, DevolsDance said:

 

It's really not a bad thing to be positive but you have to be realistic, and this is not. 

 

I believe that population and economic growth rates are being undercounted but I think the Columbus numbers and Cincy numbers will be the shockers to be fair. If I had to guess, I'd say CBUS is being significantly undercounted and Cincy to a lesser extent. I expect 2020 results to show hefty boosts for Columbus, large boots for Cincinnati, and stable numbers for Cleveland. Stability isn't bad, but I really doubt it's going to shock anyone. 

 

Based on what? Estimates?

Edited by Clefan98

While the booster bros from central and southern Ohio were busy celebrating estimates, Cleveland's economy passed them by.

 

Cleveland economy outpaces Cincinnati, Columbus in 2017:

https://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2018/09/cleveland_economy_outpaces_cin.html

 

 

YOY job growth #'s as of Oct 18

Cleveland 2.5%

Cincinnati 1.8%

Columbus 1.9%

Minneapolis-St. Paul 1.7%

Chicago .7%

Detroit .7%

Pittsburgh .7%

Indy 2.1%

St Louis .8%

Dallas 3%

San Francisco 2%

 

*In previous months Cleveland had the other two C's double up until Oct


Source:

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.oh_cleveland_msa.htm

Edited by Clefan98

7 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Based on what? Estimates? Look at Cincy's estimates in 2009 vs the real numbers in 2010.  Everyone was wayyy off. 

 

Eh, the methodology of the Census estimates has been refined and there's more data. Talk to anybody at the Census and they'll tell you the numbers get more reliable over time. And the estimates get better each time they're revised. So the 2012 numbers from the 2018 vintage are much better than the 2012 numbers from the 2012 vintage, as an example. 

 

Anyway, this wasn't an attempt by me to get in a pissing match about which city is better. I love Cleveland and I hope the 2020 Census numbers are positive for all three of Ohio's big cities. 

49 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Um, 2020 or 1920?

 

Was that back when Cincy was still more relevant than Toledo?

that's Booster Brah to you

8 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

While the booster bros from central and southern Ohio were busy celebrating estimates, Cleveland's economy passed them by.

 

Cleveland economy outpaces Cincinnati, Columbus in 2017:

https://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2018/09/cleveland_economy_outpaces_cin.html

 

 

2018 YTD Job growth #'s as of Oct

Cleveland 2.5%

Cincinnati 1.8%

Columbus 1.9%

Minneapolis-St. Paul 1.7%

Chicago .7%

Detroit .7%

Pittsburgh .7%

Indy 2.1%

St Louis .8%

Dallas 3%

San Francisco 2%

 

(Previous months Cleveland had the other two C's double up until Oct)


Source:

 

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.oh_cleveland_msa.htm

 

Well neither of these two things are what you said they were. You said job growth in 2018. The first link is to GDP growth in 2017, which is great but a totally different thing. It's the value of goods and services, not jobs. Either way, Cleveland had a great year and that's awesome.

 

Second link is jobs, but those percentages are October year-over-year growth. Not October YTD. And monthly year-over-year growth isn't really an indicator of overall job growth because it jumps around a bunch. October YTD can be calculated from them though, but it wouldn't tell us much either because jobs fluctuate from month to month. To make an actual comparison you'd want to take the 2017 average and the 2018 average and compare them. And BLS doesn't provide a 2018 average until the end of the year.

 

So let's look at an actual good indicator, growth since 2010. I'll use annual average employment so that it smooths out seasonal variations and I'll grab data from 2010 to 2017 (latest full year available). Doing that, the job growth since 2010 looks like this:

 

Cleveland 0.9%

Cincinnati 7.4%

Columbus 13%

 

So there you have it. Job growth for the three metro areas since the last Census. Note that this is a different comparison than I made originally, as I was just comparing the three core counties of each metro.

55 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

^Keep in mind that Franklin County statistics are a better indication of Columbus's overall trends than is Hamilton County. 

 

As we have discussed here previously, not only is 1/4 to 1/3 of the Cincinnati metro area in Kentucky, fully 1/3 of Hamilton County does not have sewers and/or is on a flood plain and cannot be developed. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.2255546,-84.7903974,3727m/data=!3m1!1e3

 

This is true. The Kentucky thing is, I think, the more relevant fact. Covington and Newport are basically extensions of the Cincinnati CBD and so they contain a hefty chunk of the area's jobs (more so Covington than Newport). There's also CVG and its environs, which serves as another major job hub. So your point is a good one I think. 

^ I changed it to YOY right after I posted YTD...Nothing what you said changes the fact that Cleveland has outpaced both C's in job growth from OCT 17 - Oct 18.

 

And yes, I realized what my first link regarding GDP was about. It's important to note because Columbus and Cincinnati both exceeded Cleveland's GDP in 2016.

 

So, in summary, the estimates you posted are very accurate, but the YOY job growth numbers (which have already been revised) are not.

Edited by Clefan98

The link provided does show the YOY numbers for the last 6 months.  Each month Cleveland has been higher than Cincinnati or Columbus, most of the months being significantly higher.

 

The unemployment rate for Cleveland is still higher, though, so there's work to be done.

Edited by jam40jeff

YTD Job Growth Numbers

 

Cleveland Jan 18 1033.8 / Oct 1093.3 ~60k jobs added

Cincinatti Jan 18 1071.1 / Oct 1120.9 ~ 49k jobs added

Columbus Jan 18 1069.0 Oct 1111.9 ~  42k jobs added

 

I personally know people who track population/migration stats for a living. They believe Cleveland has already stabilized and is now showing signs of significant growth. These jobs numbers certainly support that theory.

 

 

Edited by Clefan98

10 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

The link provided does show the YOY numbers for the last 6 months.  Each month Cleveland has been higher than Cincinnati or Columbus, most of the months being significantly higher.

 

The unemployment rate for Cleveland is still higher, though, so there's work to be done.

 

And if you click on the charts listed under "Back Data" (first column) it goes all the way back to the beginning of the year. 

1 minute ago, Clefan98 said:

^ I changed it to YOY right after I posted YTD...Nothing what you said changes the fact that Cleveland has outpaced both C's in job growth from OCT 17 - Oct 18.

 

And yes, I realized what my first link regarding GDP was about. It's important to note because Columbus and Cincinnati had a larger GDP in 2016.

 

I'm not actually even sure that what you posted is YOY now that I go back and check the math. My own calculations using Oct 17 to Oct 18 give this:
 

Cleveland: 2%

Cincinnati: 0.9%

Columbus: 0.5%

 

So I'm not sure where you got your percentages but either way it looks like it was a good year for Cleveland. That's positive and I hope it is indicative of a long-term trend. 

37 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

YTD Job Growth Numbers

 

Cleveland Jan 18 1033.8 / Oct 1093.3 ~60k jobs added

Cincinatti Jan 18 1071.1 / Oct 1120.9 ~ 49k jobs added

Columbus Jan 18 1069.0 Oct 1111.9 ~  42k jobs added

 

I personally know people who track population/migration stats for a living. They believe Cleveland has already stabilized and is now showing signs of significant growth. These jobs numbers certainly support that theory.

 

 

 

I actually am a demographer and urban planner. I also believe that Cleveland has stabilized and is trending in the right direction. I don't think anybody is disputing that. It does, however, depend on your definition of significant. Either way, I don't think any objective person would argue that Cleveland is outpacing Cincinnati or Columbus. The preponderance of data just don't support that idea. 

 

And again, I'm not a "booster bro" or whatever. I would like to see all three C's grow and prosper. We'd all be better off if that happened. 

2 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

Cleveland's job growth rate is almost double that of Columbus and Cincinnati thus far in 2018. The actual 2020 census numbers are going to shock some people on this forum.

 

More like 40% better rather than almost 100% if you believe the BLS.  Still good, but not quite THAT good.  And I don't think you can use such numbers in relation to population, anyway.  It would be nice to see Cleveland growing or not losing as much, but jobs numbers aren't a great indicator either way.  After all, most years since the recession have seen job growth, but it hasn't translated to population increases.

What data other than population "estimates" are you using? According to the recent job numbers and GDP news, Cleveland is outpacing Cbus and Cincy in 2018, economically speaking.

 

Totally agree with your last sentence BTW..

 

Edited by Clefan98

Just now, jonoh81 said:

 

More like 40% better rather than almost 100% if you believe the BLS.  Still good, but not quite THAT good.  And I don't think you can use such numbers in relation to population, anyway.  It would be nice to see Cleveland growing or not losing as much, but jobs numbers aren't a great indicator either way.  After all, most years since the recession have seen job growth, but it hasn't translated to population increases.

Job numbers aren't the only statistics driving my opinion.  

56 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

The link provided does show the YOY numbers for the last 6 months.  Each month Cleveland has been higher than Cincinnati or Columbus, most of the months being significantly higher.

 

The unemployment rate for Cleveland is still higher, though, so there's work to be done.

 

To be fair, also, Cleveland lost more jobs than either of the other 2 Cs during the recession, and is only now barely above its pre-recession peak literally this year.  Cincy and Columbus have blown past their previous peaks years ago.  In that context, it kind of makes sense, as Cleveland has still been in recession recovery until now. 

1 minute ago, Clefan98 said:

Job numbers aren't the only statistics driving my opinion.  

 

I'd be curious as to what other indicators are making you think that, then.

^ The rise in Cleveland Public School enrollment, and number of building permits issued in the city in 2017/2018 vs previous years, are a couple of other indicators. The real estate market is another indicator. The number of houses being sold each month in the city of Cleveland are hitting record numbers.

Edited by Clefan98

1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

 

This is true. The Kentucky thing is, I think, the more relevant fact. Covington and Newport are basically extensions of the Cincinnati CBD and so they contain a hefty chunk of the area's jobs (more so Covington than Newport). There's also CVG and its environs, which serves as another major job hub. So your point is a good one I think. 

 

Campbell County has relatively few jobs as compared to Kenton and Boone. 

 

The Amazon Prime Air Hub is poised to employ about 3,000 directly, but the fact that CVG will almost certainly become the #1 cargo airport in the world means every ounce of developable land in Boone and Kenton Counties is going to become e-commerce-related stuff.  NKY is going to be loaded with 10,000 more lousy low-paying warehouse jobs by 2030 than it is now! 

14 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

^ The rise in Cleveland Public School enrollment, and number of building permits issued in the city in 2017/2018 vs previous years, are a couple of other indicators. The real estate market is another indicator. The number of houses being sold each month in the city of Cleveland are hitting record numbers.

 

Yes, I think those are better indicators, but at the same time, are these things happening across the city or only in certain neighborhoods?  I'm much more versed in Columbus demographics and population, but I've done enough comparisons over the years to believe that the rate of loss has slowed drastically this decade in Cleveland.  I'm just not yet convinced there's more to it than that yet.  You can have very successful, booming neighborhoods like UC and Downtown, yet still lose population from other parts of the city that more than make up for the gains.  The rising parts of Cleveland are still a relatively small part of the city.  I think we're still a good decade or more from any potential growth years, TBH.   

4 hours ago, MissinOhio said:

Well it took 4 posts until we had to hear about Columbus carrying the state.  That might be a record.  Glad to see Ohio is doing better than its competitors: Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It was a joke post referring to Aaron Renn's article on Columbus. Too bad people on here could not get that. smdh. 

The rise in enrollment is a citywide stat. So Cleveland is adding students overall. And even though most of the growth is contained to a small part of the city, those small areas are seeing LARGE gains. Downtown, UC and the near westside contain some of the fastest growing zip codes in Ohio.

Edited by Clefan98

25 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

The rise in enrollment is a citywide stat. So Cleveland is adding students overall. And even though most of the growth is contained to a small part of the city, those small areas are seeing LARGE gains. Downtown, UC and the near westside contain some of the fastest growing zip codes in Ohio.

 

The fastest growing zip codes in Ohio are some of the tallest midgets in the United States. 

4 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

that's Booster Brah to you

Bro, Brah, Bruh, plus some gender neutral/fluid term. Zro/Zrah/Zruh perhaps? lol

6 hours ago, DEPACincy said:

 

I'm not actually even sure that what you posted is YOY now that I go back and check the math. My own calculations using Oct 17 to Oct 18 give this:
 

Cleveland: 2%

Cincinnati: 0.9%

Columbus: 0.5%

 

So I'm not sure where you got your percentages but either way it looks like it was a good year for Cleveland. That's positive and I hope it is indicative of a long-term trend. 

 

I assume he's looking at Total Non-farm Employment, which does in fact give you 2.5% from Oct 17 to Oct 18 if you do the calculation manually.

Edited by jam40jeff

4 hours ago, Toddguy said:

Bro, Brah, Bruh, plus some gender neutral/fluid term. Zro/Zrah/Zruh perhaps? lol

 

 

Edited by jmecklenborg
Bruh

13 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

Downtown, UC and the near westside contain some of the fastest growing zip codes in Ohio.

 

So I was curious if this was true and did a little research. I pulled 2017 and 2010 population totals. Here are the top 10:

 

43026 (Hilliard): +7,642

43123 (Grove City): +5,912

43015 (Delaware): +5,745

43229 (Cbus): +5,354

43224 (Cbus): +5,200

43230 (Gahanna): +5,170

43054 (New Albany): +4,673

43110 (Canal Winchester): +4,427

43016 (Dublin): +4,367

43228 (Cbus/Lincoln Village): +3,857

 

So every single one of the top ten is in Central Ohio and every single one of the top 10 is suburban. You could call 43224 urban. But there are no downtown or near downtown zips on the list. 

 

So where do urban zips rank? A selection:

 

48... 43215 (Downtown Cbus): +1,532

49... 44114 (Downtown Cle): +1,489

51... 45219 (Uptown Cincy): 1,483

84... 45208 (Hyde Park): +932

89... 45209 (Oakley): +868

111... 43205 (Old Towne East): +641

115... 44113 (Ohio City/Tremont): +617

223... 43206 (German Village): +280

236... 45223 (Northside): +252

622... 44115 (Downtown Cle): -26

644... 45206 (Walnut Hills): -36

1,165... 44106 (University Circle): -1,060

1,188... 45202 (Downtown Cincy): -1,931

1,196... 43201 (Short North/University): -3,633

 

And just for fun, here are the bottom five:
 

43223 (South Franklinton): -2,250

43607 (Toledo): -2,398

44108 (Glenville/Forest Hills): -3,631

43201(Short North/University): -3,633

44120 (Buckeye-Shaker/Shaker Heights/Mt. Pleasant): -3,640

 

So the big takeaways here are that the fastest growing zips in Ohio are still overwhelmingly suburban and all in the Columbus area. Some downtown zips are growing, but a few have lost quite a bit of population. But that is actually to be expected. Gentrifying areas generally don't actually gain population, at least not until the late stages of gentrification. That's because folks who previously lived in those zip codes were living with multiple people in a household and the newcomers tend to be in 1 and 2 person households. So you can be seeing a building boom all around you and actually be losing population. 

 

12 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

48... 43215 (Downtown Cbus): +1,532

 

Jeffrey Park alone has added probably 750 people. Downtown was at 5,500 in 2009. EOY 2017 it was 8,400. Also included in 43215 is the dense new builds of Harrison West and Liberty Place in the Brewery District. In other words, I'd say 43215 is closer to +4,000 than +1,532.

I'm a bit baffled by the 43201 ~3,600 loss, unless the now mandatory "live on campus for your first two years" dropped the off-campus student population significantly.  It looks like nearly all campus housing is outside of 43201.

Edited by DarkandStormy

Very Stable Genius

16 minutes ago, aderwent said:

 

Jeffrey Park alone has added probably 750 people. Downtown was at 5,500 in 2009. EOY 2017 it was 8,400. Also included in 43215 is the dense new builds of Harrison West and Liberty Place in the Brewery District. In other words, I'd say 43215 is closer to +4,000 than +1,532.

 

Yeah, I agree, these number seem off. I don't trust estimate data that's been presented here.

33 minutes ago, aderwent said:

 

Jeffrey Park alone has added probably 750 people. Downtown was at 5,500 in 2009. EOY 2017 it was 8,400. Also included in 43215 is the dense new builds of Harrison West and Liberty Place in the Brewery District. In other words, I'd say 43215 is closer to +4,000 than +1,532.

 

So my initial reaction to the data was the same. And my own experience in downtown Cincy tells me that there's no way it lost population. But then I set aside my biases and put on my demographer cap and it becomes a lot more believable. As I said, a boom in households isn't the same as a boom in population. When you build a new housing subdivision in the suburbs you are building where nothing existed before and each new house has 3-5 people in it. When you build in 43215 or 45202 you are building in places where folks already lived. And in many cases those folks are leaving with their large households and being replaced by single person and two person households. One large housing project can hold as many people as all the new housing built in downtown Cincy or downtown Cbus this decade. 

 

So could these numbers be off? Sure. In some cases the MOE is quite high. But I'd trust them over my own gut reaction because they're based in a real scientific methodology and one that is the best available vs. my own "well I SEE new development happening" reaction. 

^ Can you post a link to your source?

19 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Yeah, I agree, these number seem off. I don't trust estimate data that's been presented here.

 

Why? It seems like you've claimed a lot of things (Cleveland is growing faster than Cbus/Cincy, Downtown Cle has the fastest growing zips) but when you're presented with the actual data you say it can't be right because you FEEL that it is wrong. But you haven't presented any data to the contrary. Your GDP data was interesting but it isn't jobs or population growth, and it was one year. Cincy and Cle have been trading places as the largest GDP this entire decade. And you jobs numbers didn't show what you initially said it did, and even then it is again only one year. You have to be willing to look at and analyze trends and put aside your biases. I really, really WANT downtown Cle, Cincy, and Cbus to be the fastest growing places in Ohio. I really want young people to flock here from all over the country and world and fill up our urban neighborhoods. But the fact of the matter is that the fastest growing places in Ohio are the Columbus suburbs, not our downtowns. 

I'm referring to what's happening in 2018, not 2010-2017.

1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

 

So I was curious if this was true and did a little research. I pulled 2017 and 2010 population totals. Here are the top 10:

 

43026 (Hilliard): +7,642

43123 (Grove City): +5,912

43015 (Delaware): +5,745

43229 (Cbus): +5,354

43224 (Cbus): +5,200

43230 (Gahanna): +5,170

43054 (New Albany): +4,673

43110 (Canal Winchester): +4,427

43016 (Dublin): +4,367

43228 (Cbus/Lincoln Village): +3,857

 

So every single one of the top ten is in Central Ohio and every single one of the top 10 is suburban. You could call 43224 urban. But there are no downtown or near downtown zips on the list. 

 

So where do urban zips rank? A selection:

 

48... 43215 (Downtown Cbus): +1,532

49... 44114 (Downtown Cle): +1,489

51... 45219 (Uptown Cincy): 1,483

84... 45208 (Hyde Park): +932

89... 45209 (Oakley): +868

111... 43205 (Old Towne East): +641

115... 44113 (Ohio City/Tremont): +617

223... 43206 (German Village): +280

236... 45223 (Northside): +252

622... 44115 (Downtown Cle): -26

644... 45206 (Walnut Hills): -36

1,165... 44106 (University Circle): -1,060

1,188... 45202 (Downtown Cincy): -1,931

1,196... 43201 (Short North/University): -3,633

 

And just for fun, here are the bottom five:
 

43223 (South Franklinton): -2,250

43607 (Toledo): -2,398

44108 (Glenville/Forest Hills): -3,631

43201(Short North/University): -3,633

44120 (Buckeye-Shaker/Shaker Heights/Mt. Pleasant): -3,640

 

So the big takeaways here are that the fastest growing zips in Ohio are still overwhelmingly suburban and all in the Columbus area. Some downtown zips are growing, but a few have lost quite a bit of population. But that is actually to be expected. Gentrifying areas generally don't actually gain population, at least not until the late stages of gentrification. That's because folks who previously lived in those zip codes were living with multiple people in a household and the newcomers tend to be in 1 and 2 person households. So you can be seeing a building boom all around you and actually be losing population. 

 

You should take these with a big grain of salt.  No one in their right mind should believe the Short North has lost population, let alone thousands.   The Census has unfortunately routinely mishandled the urban areas of Columbus for whatever reason.  I say this because the 2010 showed strong growth.  That didn’t reverse when you add dozens of large infill projects with very low vacancy rate.  That’s not bias, that’s a rational conclusion.

Edited by jonoh81

17 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

I'm referring to what's happening in 2018, not 2010-2017.

 

Convenient since we don't have data for 2018. But also not at all useful since one year does not make a trend. 

30 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

I'm referring to what's happening in 2018, not 2010-2017.

 

Well, 2018 isn't over yet, so how exactly would that work? 

23 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

You should take these with a big grain of salt.  No one in their right mind should believe the Short North has lost population, let alone thousands.   The Census has unfortunately routinely mishandled the urban areas of Columbus for whatever reason.  I say this because the 2010 showed strong growth.  That didn’t reverse when you add dozens of large infill projects with very low vacancy rate.  That’s not bias, that’s a rational conclusion.

 

I hear you. But 43201 is a large zip code. It's very possible that Short North has been gaining households (it has) and areas like this have been losing:

https://goo.gl/maps/ApSYpVAqfrQ2

https://goo.gl/maps/GTatENdgb942

 

And combine that with the household size paradox I've mentioned here multiple times and it is very believable that 43201 has lost population. Because, again, it is a very common phenomenon for rapidly gentrifying areas to actually lose a lot of population. Here is an example:

 

https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3619&context=all_theses

"Though seemingly paradoxical, the decrease in black residents and influx of white residents reflects a “back to the city” movement happening across the country. Population density decreases can be seen in downtown Charleston as young, white, middle-class residents begin to move in."

 

 

 

Edited by DEPACincy

Just now, DevolsDance said:

 

Well, 2018 isn't over yet, so how exactly would that work? 

Data that my organization has access to.

3 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

Data that my organization has access to.

 

Well, please share with the class then. When I say share, I mean actual data and not something based on "feel" or "some people you know" please and thank you.

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