Pretty crazy with all of the phenomenal growth down in Cbus during that time, its metro ranking remained exactly the same.

3 minutes ago, thomasbw said:

^are the MSA counties the same in 1950 and 2019 or do those numbers just reflect the MSA as defined in each of those years?

 

The counties will definitely be different. As the core city grows and holds more power within the region, more counties will be added to its MSA because more people are commuting there for work, shopping, etc. The Columbus MSA would probably have added more counties since 1950 than Pittsburgh, for example, but those counties that Columbus added probably had very tiny populations in 1950. 

41 minutes ago, PoshSteve said:

Pretty crazy with all of the phenomenal growth down in Cbus during that time, its metro ranking remained exactly the same.

 

Really interesting comparisons. Columbus is the only metro that grew enough to keep its ranking, every other MSA dropped during that time, even the "successful" ones. Wow. 

 

It also illustrates how small Cols and Indy were in 1950 - not much larger than metro Toledo, even though the Toledo MSA has grown faster than any other major Ohio MSA save Columbus and Cincinnati. 

Edited January 5, 20214 yr by westerninterloper

^ and that always bums me too. because toledo was the city that did things differently in that they didnt do suburbs. thats more in perception than reality of course.

Two things stand out for me in that list. 

 

One, Dayton being Ohio's 3rd largest MSA in 1950, edging Columbus, is interesting to me but makes sense. 

Two, Toledo MSA, in 1950, was smaller than Canton's MSA in 2010.  It shows how folks built "big" back in the early/mid 1900's, even with "smaller" populations by today's standards.  Hell, Chicago back in 1950 was around Phoenix's 2020 numbers.

Its fine to compare one city's MSA pop in 1950 with itself in 2019--but comparing Cleveland to places like Columbus or Pittsburgh isn't that meaningful as the Cleveland MSA doesn't account for all of Cleveland.

7 hours ago, Ucgrad2015 said:

Migration study. Ohio has moved from balanced to outbound per Atlas van lines, not sure how accurate their data is compared to other moving companies. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2021/01/05/migration-study.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_6&cx_artPos=3#cxrecs_s

 

It's honestly pretty useless, the Forbes list of migration data.

Edited January 6, 20214 yr by jonoh81

7 hours ago, Ucgrad2015 said:

Migration study. Ohio has moved from balanced to outbound per Atlas van lines, not sure how accurate their data is compared to other moving companies. https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2021/01/05/migration-study.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_6&cx_artPos=3#cxrecs_s

For what it’s worth, I saw that Uhaul had Ohio listed as one of the top 10 states for net inflow this past year. I’m sure both lists are equally useless. 

On 1/4/2021 at 7:14 PM, westerninterloper said:

Meaning you didn't realize Toledo was as large as it was? Toledo was a top 30 city from about 1910 until the 1970s, keeping pace with Columbus until the 1940s, and of course larger than many sun belt cities of that time - Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix.

 

It also must be mentioned that Toledo annexed considerable suburban land in the 1950s and 1960s that masked overall decline that almost all Rust Belt cities were experiencing, and when annexation stopped, population declined. As a result, the city of Toledo is a larger part of the MSA population compared to most other cities in Ohio, again because of annexation. About a third of MSA residents live in the city, on par with Columbus and Indianapolis, and considerably higher than Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, which are at about 15% I'd guess. 

 

Not quite correct about them only being a 3rd of their metros.  Columbus is about 42.3% of its metro.  Indy is about 42.2%, though it's not an apples to apples comparison because Indy includes most of its county as the city limits.  Toledo is 42.5%.  Cleveland is 18.6% and Cincinnati is 13.7%  

13 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Not quite correct about them only being a 3rd of their metros.  Columbus is about 42.3% of its metro.  Indy is about 42.2%, though it's not an apples to apples comparison because Indy includes most of its county as the city limits.  Toledo is 42.5%.  Cleveland is 18.6% and Cincinnati is 13.7%  

It's crazy how most Ohioans don't know this, especially people in Columbus. You bring up "MSA" or "metro pop" and they don't even know what this stands for or even what it is.

They keep adding counties that are too far away and too rural to the Columbus MSA so people don't take it seriously anymore. Morrow and Hocking for example. Do you know how much corn you have to drive through to get from Hocking Hills to the south end of Galion?

11 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

They keep adding counties that are too far away and too rural to the Columbus MSA so people don't take it seriously anymore. Morrow and Hocking for example. Do you know how much corn you have to drive through to get from Hocking Hills to the south end of Galion?

 

The distance between Galion and Hocking Hills is totally irrelevant. What's relevant is the fact that most people who live in Hocking Hills or Galion are driving into Columbus every day for work, shopping, recreation, etc. If this daily commute was not occurring at such a large level, these places would not be included in the Columbus MSA. This type of situation exists in every metro area in this part of the country. Also, the idea that Columbus is an outrageously expansive MSA is complete nonsense. There are many other MSAs around the country that encompass a much larger land area. Nashville, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Austin all come to mind.  

16 hours ago, Pugu said:

Its fine to compare one city's MSA pop in 1950 with itself in 2019--but comparing Cleveland to places like Columbus or Pittsburgh isn't that meaningful as the Cleveland MSA doesn't account for all of Cleveland.

Can you explain the arbitrary methodology you use to determine what is and is not within the Cleveland MSA, since it clearly differs from the official Census methodology?  You say stuff like this all the time, so I'm genuinely interested in your precise methods and how you personally choose what to include in the MSA.  I'm curious if it's anything other than it "feels like it should be in there."  Maybe you've explained it before.  If so, I missed that explanation.  I'm no expert in it, but according to @cbussoccer, it seems like the Census uses commuter patterns to determine this.  How do their numbers differ from yours?

Edited January 6, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA

 

14 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

Cincinnati is 13.7%  

 

And we like it that way.  Even if Cincinnati annexed the three small cities that it completely surrounds, it still wouldn't get much past 15%.  

It seems like the Cleveland and Akron MSAs will need to merge at some point as they are overlapping.  

2 minutes ago, skiwest said:

It seems like the Cleveland and Akron MSAs will need to merge at some point as they are overlapping.  

 

Dayton and Cincinnati's MSA's also overlap, but Cincinnati is gifted the entirety of Butler County, pop. 400,000, which should probably be 1/3 Dayton.  

1 minute ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Dayton and Cincinnati's MSA's also overlap, but Cincinnati is gifted the entirety of Butler County, pop. 400,000, which should probably be 1/3 Dayton.  

 

That's because they don't overlap *as much*.  There isn't even a county between Akron and Cleveland to gift to one or the other.

Edited January 6, 20214 yr by jam40jeff

6 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

I'm no expert in it, but according to @cbussoccer, it seems like the Census uses commuter patterns to determine this.

 

It's more than just that. But yes, in essence an MSA is simply a core urban area and the outlying areas that surround it and are economically and socially linked to it. There are statistical methods used to determine if an outlying area is economically and socially linked closely enough to the core urban area to be considered part of the MSA. Unfortunately, us common folk don't really have access to the statistics and thresholds used, so we end up with people making up their own reasons for different MSAs to be inflated or deflated to fit their own narrative. 

 

8 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

Unfortunately, us common folk don't really have access to the statistics and thresholds used

Well, it's a good thing we're about to get a statistics lesson from @Pugu, then.

9 minutes ago, jam40jeff said:

 

That's because they don't overlap *as much*.  There isn't even a county between Akron and Cleveland to gift to one or the other.

I think undeveloped/developed land is probably a more important factor than the number of counties in between cities. County lines can get weird depending on what county is in question. https://resources.ohiohistory.org/ohj/search/display.php?page=26&ipp=20&searchterm=Array&vol=36&pages=340-477

7 minutes ago, Cincinnatus said:

I think undeveloped/developed land is probably a more important factor than the number of counties in between cities. County lines can get weird depending on what county is in question. https://resources.ohiohistory.org/ohj/search/display.php?page=26&ipp=20&searchterm=Array&vol=36&pages=340-477

Not sure how that works as a measure here when it’s a National Park that separates the Cleveland and Akron Metros.

12 minutes ago, Sapper Daddy said:

Not sure how that works as a measure here when it’s a National Park that separates the Cleveland and Akron Metros.

I understand. It's not really important is my point. You have counties like Hamilton which is a thin rectangle or Franklin, which is like a square or Brown, which has a sliver of land in it. I'm addressing the "# of counties in between" comment.

The two Butler County cities, Hamilton and Middletown, don't lie in the direct path between Cincinnati and Dayton, and so were bypassed by I-75.  This meant 20~ miles of farmland separated Cincinnati and Dayton after I-75 was built but not before.  There was little break in the action if you rode a prewar passenger train between Cincinnati and Dayton via Hamilton and Middletown.  

 

Also, the Ohio Hub plan would have traveled the historic route through Hamilton and Middletown, which is a little farther distance-wise, but would have given a more "urban" character to the ride as opposed to the 1980s high speed rail plan through the then-undeveloped wilds of Butler and Warren counties paralleling I-75.  

Edited January 6, 20214 yr by jmecklenborg

Just heard a mid career highly professional couple, chicago refugees, moved to CLE as of Jan 1.  Dude is from CLE but both wanted out of chicago river north especially after the 2nd round of looting in august....I guess the open gun battles on the Magnificent Mile was the last straw.

 

This couple lived near the Ronald McDonald House in streeterville that was attacked at 3am leaving staff, sick kids, and their families terrified and cowering inside on the upper floors.

 

hopefully CLE can milk some more people out of CHI as many want outta there...and for good reason.

4 hours ago, Sapper Daddy said:

Not sure how that works as a measure here when it’s a National Park that separates the Cleveland and Akron Metros.

I never really bought into this argument. The I-77 corridor is pretty undeveloped despite not being in the national park. Clevelanders love to assert that the metros would be "joined if not for the park", but there's plenty of room in Richfield and Bath that could be used to join the cities, since all the sprawl along 271 and 8 apparently isn't enough according to Census Bureau standards. 

24 minutes ago, BigDipper 80 said:

I never really bought into this argument. The I-77 corridor is pretty undeveloped despite not being in the national park. Clevelanders love to assert that the metros would be "joined if not for the park", but there's plenty of room in Richfield and Bath that could be used to join the cities, since all the sprawl along 271 and 8 apparently isn't enough according to Census Bureau standards. 

I’m all about CSAs so when you have 2 adjacent MSAs like CLE-AKR with both center cities in directly adjacent counties, it’s about a CSA. 

 

If Dayton was in say Warren or Clermont counties, CIN would be saying the same thing.

6 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

They keep adding counties that are too far away and too rural to the Columbus MSA so people don't take it seriously anymore. Morrow and Hocking for example. Do you know how much corn you have to drive through to get from Hocking Hills to the south end of Galion?

 

It's just based on commuting.  There is at least a 25% rate of commuting between Morrow/Hocking and Columbus.  It's a hell of a commute, but significant.

5 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

 

And we like it that way.  Even if Cincinnati annexed the three small cities that it completely surrounds, it still wouldn't get much past 15%.  

 

I think a more interesting measure is how much population the core metro county includes, since it's not based on any annexation.

3 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

It's just based on commuting.  There is at least a 25% rate of commuting between Morrow/Hocking and Columbus.  It's a hell of a commute, but significant.

 

Did Hocking County get added when the Lancaster Bypass happened or shortly thereafter? It opened in 2004 I think and sawed at least 15 minutes worth of 3 and 4 phase signals off of the commute. Even more when the elimination of 3 lights in Canal Winchester and one at OH-327 plus several dangerous crossovers such all along the route.

10 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Did Hocking County get added when the Lancaster Bypass happened or shortly thereafter? It opened in 2004 I think and sawed at least 15 minutes worth of 3 and 4 phase signals off of the commute. Even more when the elimination of 3 lights in Canal Winchester and one at OH-327 plus several dangerous crossovers such all along the route.

 

Hocking and Perry were added after the 2010 census- I want to say in 2013.

20 hours ago, Sapper Daddy said:

Not sure how that works as a measure here when it’s a National Park that separates the Cleveland and Akron Metros.

 

Not really. If the CVNP was aligned east-west, I'd agree with you. But it's aligned north-south and surrounded by continuous suburban areas on both sides.

 

BTW, I don't consider the U-Haul (or Atlas) data useless. If it was telling me Wyoming was a top-10 destination for one-way moves, then I'd agree. But U-Haul's data aligns pretty well with my expectations of what would be destinations for do-it-yourself moves....

 

 

41 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

But U-Haul's data aligns pretty well with my expectations of what would be destinations for do-it-yourself moves....

 

 

The young up-and-comers move by UHaul. It's old crumblies heading to Florida (and other forms of purgatory) that use Atlas and United Van. I'd say those are very positive numbers.

Ah yes, young people have less stuff and aren't going to fill a semi.

15 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

It's just based on commuting.  There is at least a 25% rate of commuting between Morrow/Hocking and Columbus.  It's a hell of a commute, but significant.

 

A lot of people in those areas who work downtown usually leave early in the morning (around 5am or so) to beat a lot of the morning rush hour traffic. It ends up being about a 45-50 minute drive from Logan, which isn't much different than leaving Polaris at 7am to drive downtown. 

 

Even if you were to remove a county like Hocking from the Columbus MSA, it would hardly chnage the overall MSA population. Hocking County, which has an approximate population of 28,264, only accounts for 1.3% of the total MSA population. Hocking County and Morrow County combined only account for 3% of the total MSA population. Franklin County alone is growing fast enough to replace the population of Hocking and Morrow Counties combined every five years or so. So arguing about whether the two counties should or shouldn't be included is fairly pointless. 

The thing about the national park is that it is a GOOD thing that it is there. Sprawl between Cleveland and Akron would undoubtedly be worse without it. It's basically a greenbelt. And that means that the core cities are healthier than they would be without it.

45 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

A lot of people in those areas who work downtown usually leave early in the morning (around 5am or so) to beat a lot of the morning rush hour traffic. It ends up being about a 45-50 minute drive from Logan, which isn't much different than leaving Polaris at 7am to drive downtown. 

 

Even if you were to remove a county like Hocking from the Columbus MSA, it would hardly chnage the overall MSA population. Hocking County, which has an approximate population of 28,264, only accounts for 1.3% of the total MSA population. Hocking County and Morrow County combined only account for 3% of the total MSA population. Franklin County alone is growing fast enough to replace the population of Hocking and Morrow Counties combined every five years or so. So arguing about whether the two counties should or shouldn't be included is fairly pointless. 

 

I agree.  I think the only thing we can really say about the inclusion of such far-flung counties is that Columbus has a growing influence on such areas and that there is a significant economic crossflow.  It's not like Southeast Ohio has much going on.  Athens is only so big.

45 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

A lot of people in those areas who work downtown usually leave early in the morning (around 5am or so) to beat a lot of the morning rush hour traffic. It ends up being about a 45-50 minute drive from Logan, which isn't much different than leaving Polaris at 7am to drive downtown. 

 

Even if you were to remove a county like Hocking from the Columbus MSA, it would hardly chnage the overall MSA population. Hocking County, which has an approximate population of 28,264, only accounts for 1.3% of the total MSA population. Hocking County and Morrow County combined only account for 3% of the total MSA population. Franklin County alone is growing fast enough to replace the population of Hocking and Morrow Counties combined every five years or so. So arguing about whether the two counties should or shouldn't be included is fairly pointless. 

 

I agree.  I think the only thing we can really say about the inclusion of such far-flung counties is that Columbus has a growing influence on such areas and that there is a significant economic crossflow.  It's not like Southeast Ohio has much going on.  Athens is only so big.

Just now, jonoh81 said:

 

I agree.  I think the only thing we can really say about the inclusion of such far-flung counties is that Columbus has a growing influence on such areas and that there is a significant economic crossflow.  It's not like Southeast Ohio has much going on.  Athens is only so big.

 

Exactly. I've spent a decent amount of time down in Logan and I know some people from there. That area is very much part of Columbus and reliant upon Columbus. I just figured I would point out that even if they were removed, it really wouldn't change much of anything. 

Something a lot of people don't know about Hocking, Perry and southern Fairfield Counties is that they struck oil in the '60s. That's the other thing keeps them from looking more like Lawrence and Scioto counties and why every building in Lancaster looks like it was built in either 1850 or 1971.

On 1/6/2021 at 1:51 PM, cbussoccer said:

 

It's more than just that. But yes, in essence an MSA is simply a core urban area and the outlying areas that surround it and are economically and socially linked to it. There are statistical methods used to determine if an outlying area is economically and socially linked closely enough to the core urban area to be considered part of the MSA. Unfortunately, us common folk don't really have access to the statistics and thresholds used, so we end up with people making up their own reasons for different MSAs to be inflated or deflated to fit their own narrative. 

 

I would be shocked if the data isn't out there in a public form, the thresholds are definitely defined and available. Taken from the Federal Register on March 30, 1990—Vol. 55, No. 62, pp. 12154-12160:

 

EDIT

Found the commuting data too, data from 2011-2015 can be found at the link here, it's in table 1.

 

Quote

Section 1. Population Size Requirements for Qualification

Each metropolitan statistical area must include:

 

A. A city of 50,000 or more population, or 

B. A Census Bureau defined urbanized area of at least 50,000 population, provided that the component county/ counties of the metropolitan statistical area have a total population of at least 100,000

 

Section 2. Central Counties

The central county/counties of the MSA are:

 

A. Those counties that include a central city (see section 4) of the MSA, or at least 50 percent of the population of such a city, provided the city is located in a qualifier urbanized area; and

B. Those counties in which at least 50 percent of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s).

 

Section 3. Outlying Counties

 

A. An outlying county is included in an MSA if any one of the six following conditions is met:

 

(1) At least 50 percent of the employed workers residing in the county commute to the central county/counties, and either

(a) The population density of the county is at least 25 persons per square mile, or

(b) At least 10 percent, or at least 5,000, of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s);

 

(2) From 40 to 50 percent of the employed workers commute to the central county/counties, and either

(a) the population density is at least 35 persons per square mile, or

(b) At least 10 percent, or at least 5.000, of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s);

 

(3) From 25 to 40 percent of the employed workers commute to the central county/counties and either the population density of the county is at least 50 persons per square mile, or any two of the following conditions’ exists*.

(a) Population density is at least 35 persons per square mile,

(b) At least 35 percent of the population is urban.

(c) At least 10 percent, or at least 5.000, of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s);

 

(4) From 15 to 25 percent of the employed workers commute to the central county/counties, the population density of the county is at least 50 persons per square mile, or any two of the following conditions also exist:

(a) Population density is at least 60 persons per square mile,

(b) At least 35 percent of the population is urban,

(c) Population growth between the last two decennial censuses is at least 20 percent,

(d) At least 10 percent, or at least 5.000, of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s);

 

(5) From 15 to 25 percent of the employed workers commute to the central county/counties, the population density of the county is less than 50 persons per square mile, and any two of the following conditions also exist:

(a) At least 35 percent of the population is urban,

(b) Population growth between the last two decennial censuses is at least 20 percent,

(c) At least 10 percent, or at least 5.000, of the population lives in the qualifier urbanized area(s);

 

(6) at least 2,500 of the population lives in a central city of the MSA located in the qualifier urbanized area(s).

 

B. If a county qualifies on the basis of commuting to the central county/ counties of two different MSAs, it is assigned to the area to which commuting is greatest, unless the relevant commuting percentages are within 5 points of each other, in which case local opinion about the most appropriate assignment will be considered.

 

C. If a county qualifies as a central county under section 2 and also qualifies as an outlying county of another metropolitan area under section 3A on the basis of commuting to (or from) another central county, both counties become central counties of a single merged MSA.

 

Edited January 7, 20214 yr by dastler

1 hour ago, jonoh81 said:

Athens is only so big.

 

Small, but mighty in spirit. 

5 minutes ago, dastler said:

I would be shocked if the data isn't out there in a public form, the thresholds are definitely defined and available. Taken from the Federal Register on March 30, 1990—Vol. 55, No. 62, pp. 12154-12160:

 

If someone wants to go through the laundry list of criteria and statistically prove that such and such county belongs or doesn't belong in your beloved/rival MSA, knock yourself out lol. 

I don't get the feeling that the people who decide this stuff will be impressed with any hobbyist work either 

31 minutes ago, cbussoccer said:

 

If someone wants to go through the laundry list of criteria and statistically prove that such and such county belongs or doesn't belong in your beloved/rival MSA, knock yourself out lol. 

As someone who thinks this is mostly pointless, I think there is an argument to be made that Summit County should be included in Cleveland MSA rather than Akron because of item 3B... 35,941 commuters to Cuyahoga and 10,264 commuters to Portage.

 

Doesn't really seem like there's a data backed reason to merge Cleveland/Akron into a single MSA though. There's only 11,872 commuters from Portage to Cuyahoga which I don't think meets any of the qualifications in item 2.

 

I'm dumb. Akron is in Summit, not Portage. In that case Portage county should definitely be included in Akron's MSA... 19,750 commuters Portage->Summit and 11,872 commuters Portage->Cuyahoga

 

Edit

Because I was interested, I had to see if there was an argument for merging Akron/Cleveland (even though Akron has made it clear they prefer to be on their own).

 

14.15% of Summit's workers commute to Cuyahoga, so they don't quite meet the first qualifier of section 3. The population density is 593.8/mi^2  so if commuting ever ticked up above 15% there'd be enough people to merge the two.

Edited January 7, 20214 yr by dastler

2 hours ago, dastler said:

 

Because I was interested, I had to see if there was an argument for merging Akron/Cleveland (even though Akron has made it clear they prefer to be on their own).

 

14.15% of Summit's workers commute to Cuyahoga, so they don't quite meet the first qualifier of section 3. The population density is 593.8/mi^2  so if commuting ever ticked up above 15% there'd be enough people to merge the two.

 

Now that the massive (ridiculous) upgrading up 271 is wrapping up, I'm sure we will see more commuters coming up from northern Summit and Portage counties. Especially with development and job growth continuing along the 271 corridor between Beachwood and Mayfield. Alot of the folks commuting up from Akron ways seem to work around there. Passing the threshold and merging the MSAs could be a "good" thing to come out of that sprawl inducing highway megaproject I guess...

19 hours ago, PoshSteve said:

 

Now that the massive (ridiculous) upgrading up 271 is wrapping up, I'm sure we will see more commuters coming up from northern Summit and Portage counties. Especially with development and job growth continuing along the 271 corridor between Beachwood and Mayfield. Alot of the folks commuting up from Akron ways seem to work around there. Passing the threshold and merging the MSAs could be a "good" thing to come out of that sprawl inducing highway megaproject I guess...

This article talks about the topic, the pros and cons of merging, and substantiates my claim that Akron officials do not want to merge with Cleveland (though they do want to merge with Canton). The article also claims the threshold for commuters is 25%, so I may have been using an outdated MSA definition (it is from the 90's) or it could be a case of bad journalism.

On 1/6/2021 at 1:45 PM, skiwest said:

It seems like the Cleveland and Akron MSAs will need to merge at some point as they are overlapping.  

I read somewhere on another forum that cities(MSAs) can lobby against merging...not sure how true this is though.  They said that Akron has essentially lobbied against merging with Cleveland and Canton has done the same concerning merging with Akron .

Akron and Canton are not lobbying against merging now, both of their County, Cities , and business leadership are in agreement on becoming one Metro called the Akron/Canton Metroplex. We will see if it happens when the Census Bureau designates it soon.

Akron and Canton are not lobbying against merging now, both of their County, Cities , and business leadership are in agreement on becoming one Metro called the Akron/Canton Metroplex. We will see if it happens when the Census Bureau designates it soon.

Good to hear, now we wait to see if things stay as is, if Cleveland and Akron merge or if Akron and Canton merge .


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With all this talk about MSAs, I wonder how the drastic increase in work from home and online shopping will affect which counties remain part of certain MSAs....