But here's the problem -- as flying gets more expensive, it will still happen mostly in the bigger cities.  So we will go from our current 30-40 big airports down to 20, then 10.  Sure, cities like Cincinnati will still have airports, but the number of flights will be lower.  Meanwhile Chicago, NYC, Los Angeles, etc., will still have all the international flights and will be hubs of domestic air travel.  So if we do not take advantage of the full population that we do have in this region, the sooner flights will fall off. 

 

Also, for as much as we talk about public transportation here, I think airports are more important for economic growth because they enable types of business that can't exist without them.  Los Angeles had hardly any public transportation to speak of for decades but grew into a huge center of business because it has the best air service on the West Coast.  Airlines don't provide many international flights to San Diego, and as such it is at a huge disadvantage to Los Angeles.  Proximity to Chicago's huge airports giveth to and taketh away from Indianapolis and Milwaukee.   

 

 

If you are isolated from the world, you will be isolated from resources. Businesses would start to leave and I mean big ones. Chiquita is puny compared to some of the bigger companies in the area.

Also, jets aren't as loud as they used to be.  Much of the drive to build airports 20+ miles from city centers (Dulles, KC, etc.) was due to the noise from 1960's-70's commercial jets.  Also, 747's and the other large jets don't fly frequently out of CVG and wouldn't fly too often out of a new airport. 

It's definitely not my idea to build an airport between the two cities and connect them by rail -- I have heard it elsewhere and have even heard the talk radio losers talk about it in the last year.  To make it happen SW Ohio business leaders will have to get together, get the state to create some sort of new regional agency with the authority to tax, and the state give the project $1-3 billion with regional funding to pick up the rest of whatever the tab is.  You would want this agency to build the airport and the rail line and manage both, so it would be like how BART owns land in various California cities. 

 

Also, I don't think that this airport would have to be very big at the beginning.  You would just want the state to own all the land and to master plan what land might be needed in the future.

 

The rail connection to the airport is a great idea. One would think that the Chiquita move would have woken someone up in the region to the fact that airports matter.

 

 

But here's the problem -- as flying gets more expensive, it will still happen mostly in the bigger cities.  So we will go from our current 30-40 big airports down to 20, then 10.  Sure, cities like Cincinnati will still have airports, but the number of flights will be lower.  Meanwhile Chicago, NYC, Los Angeles, etc., will still have all the international flights and will be hubs of domestic air travel.  So if we do not take advantage of the full population that we do have in this region, the sooner flights will fall off. 

 

Also, for as much as we talk about public transportation here, I think airports are more important for economic growth because they enable types of business that can't exist without them.  Los Angeles had hardly any public transportation to speak of for decades but grew into a huge center of business because it has the best air service on the West Coast.  Airlines don't provide many international flights to San Diego, and as such it is at a huge disadvantage to Los Angeles.  Proximity to Chicago's huge airports giveth to and taketh away from Indianapolis and Milwaukee.   

 

^ A mega-regional airport is probably the most important potential project to come out of a Cin-Day Megalopolis. I don't know how it could ever happen because Dayton is quite happy with its airport and Cincinnati's seems doomed to forever sit in Kentucky.

 

Possible locations would probably be near the Lebanon-Middletown-Hamilton triangle. The Lebanon-Warren County Airport has a pretty good location in that there's plenty of land around it and it's not far from 75. The only problem with locations east of 75 is all the existing rail infrastructure between Cincinnati and Dayton is west of 75.

Well I think the rapid transit line would travel pretty much parallel to I-75, especially since there is the unused express lane median between Sharonville and the Butler County Hwy.  This is a 9-mile ROW with no need for utility relocation or any of that. 

^ Was the 3C rail going to use that or use exiting tracks?

3C was existing tracks.  It would be quite expensive to get from existing mains into that median, then back out, probably more than the entire $400 million 3C budget.   

 

I've never heard any official proposal for rail in the median, but its utility for that purpose is quite obvious.  Hell, you could do four tracks in an express/local configuration.  And it's something like 9 miles long (I'm going by memory), so not something to ignore. 

Cincy and Dayton will definitely start growing together, but a coherent region might take longer to develop.

 

I recently moved to Providence. It's 50 miles from Boston, but on the T commuter rail system. Providence is its own metro with its own identity, but is sort of a subsidiary of Boston in many ways. I see the two as a functional region with two poles, one dominant and one lesser. The downside of this is that Providence (much smaller than Boston) is a sort of "brown dwarf" metro. We sort of see the same thing in Dayton, which in my view lack the minimum scale to effectively compete in the marketplace.

 

We're seeing similar things in Chicago-Milwaukee, which are even further apart (with bad traffic to boot). There's quasi-commuter rail via Amtrak's Hiawatha. The OECD territorial review of Chicago highlighted the growing inter-connectedness of the region.  I'm even speaking at a conference at Marquette in a couple weeks talking about the Chicago-Milwaukee region coming together.

 

I don't think distance is an object, but with Cincy so much smaller than Chicago or Boston, it may make things more difficult. Definitely both cities should be pursuing collaboration.  The nearby effective population is a huge boost to Cincy for many things, and as I said I don't think Dayton is big enough or strong enough to go solo.

I have always said Dayton was the biggest benefactor of the 3C proposal. I'm not sure why the state reps from Dayton did not speak up more about it. Maybe they did, behind closed doors. Anyway, Dayton really needs a rail link to Cincinnati. And if they can get one to Columbus, too, they could become a much more attractive and enjoyable option for Ohioans who want a link to a bigger city, but for whatever reason have something pulling them towards Dayton. (People like Jeffrey, for instance.)

 

(And as a bonus Columbus could cease being the largest city without a link to the national rail network.)

 

Chicago-Milwaukee, Boston-Providence, Baltimore-DC...these pairs benefit greatly from rail connections.

I have always said Dayton was the biggest benefactor of the 3C proposal. I'm not sure why the state reps from Dayton did not speak up more about it. Maybe they did, behind closed doors. Anyway, Dayton really needs a rail link to Cincinnati. And if they can get one to Columbus, too, they could become a much more attractive and enjoyable option for Ohioans who want a link to a bigger city, but for whatever reason have something pulling them towards Dayton. (People like Jeffrey, for instance.)

 

(And as a bonus Columbus could cease being the largest city without a link to the national rail network.)

 

Chicago-Milwaukee, Boston-Providence, Baltimore-DC...these pairs benefit greatly from rail connections.

 

With the inevitable happening with the areas of Cincinnati metro and Dayton coming together, it would be very important to have the two areas connected by rail (and everything in between).  I used to think that it was vital that the Northern suburbs of Cincinnati connect with downtown Cincinnati, I was obviously not thinking long term (I admit that now).  Today I think very differently as there are many things that come into picture that should be thought of now rather than later.  My eyes have opened much wider.  The areas of Cincinnati and Dayton are definitely one region and there should be a light rail or high speed rail line (or both) that should connect the areas of Northern Kentucky all the way through Dayton.  We can all feed off of the success of having an area that is connected.

 

I had concerns over some of the conversation regarding building a new International airport between Cincinnati and Dayton, only because of what it's effects might have on the downtown areas of both cities, because having the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky airport close to downtown Cincinnati is a plus.  But then I started thinking about how this could be a very positive outcome to have an airport between the two cities and it just started making since to me.  If we had rail setup, this wouldn't be an issue.  If we had something that would compete with the other airports it might get better service for the entire region.  The new airport wouldn't have to start out large, but I'm sure it wouldn't be long before it would gain much momentum.   

^exactly. I was just thinking about the distances from each downtown to each airport. CVG is 20 mins to downtown via the interstate. On I-75 going north from downtown, 20 minutes of driving takes you to I-275 - not exactly an ideal location for an airport.

 

I-75/Rt 63 in Monroe (near the outlet mall, prison and Lebanon/Warren County airport) is midway between downtown Cincinnati and downtown Dayton. 38 mins to CIN and 33 to DYT.

 

The more I think about it the more I think that the Warren Correctional Institute is the best location. There is even railroad tracks near it:

 

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Warren+Correctional+Institute,+Lebanon,+OH&hl=en&ll=39.431652,-84.301915&spn=0.017999,0.042272&sll=39.436193,-84.311657&sspn=0.035995,0.084543&t=m&gl=us&hq=Warren+Correctional+Institute,&hnear=Lebanon,+Warren,+Ohio&z=15

 

You're right about Austin Landing - but it also is a symptom of Montgomery County's ongoing push to sprawl itself in a desperate, self-defeating contest with cheap townships.

 

Then competetion is with Greene County.  Mont. county and the two Mont. County localities invovled (Miamisburg and Miami Twp) see lost revenue due to sprawl along I-675 in Greene County and this is a revenue generator to compete with that.

 

Your sort of seeing the same thing with Centerville wanting to annex into Green County to tap into the the sprawl growth at the I-675/Wilmington Pk interchange.

 

This intel would probably not be seen by Cincy-centric posters, but the srpawl situation is a bit more complex than this bi-polar thing (or really---interchange sprawl---).

 

 

 

The more I think about it the more I think that the Warren Correctional Institute is the best location.

 

That would simplify land aquistion but probably a lot of site development $$$$  for grading cut & fill since the prison is on somewhat rolling terrain.  A flatter site (to accomodate runways) would be that flatland south of AK Steel, say btw AK Steel and the highway from Monroe. Same benefit being halfway and also close enough to I-75.  I think that land is zoned industrial, too....

 

 

 

 

^ not to mention, there's not enough space at the Correctional Institute site.  You'd need north-south alignment for proper wind coverage, and those rail lines along the southern edge are the very thing constraining the site.  Rail lines are exceedingly expensive to move, and require their own environmental review, assuming the track owners are amenable to moving. 

 

There are also high-tension power lines immediately north, which constitute a hazard to navigation and would penetrate the Part 77 surfaces, and are probably even more expensive to relocate.  And you'd need to relocate Route 63 about a mile north to fit in a 10,000 foot runway.

 

And this is all predicated by (1) the state being willing to move the prison, (2) Mason, Middletown, Lebanon, Springboro, et al. being amenable to an air traffic pattern overhead, (3) property owners of and the golf course at Shaker Run selling, (4) electing a governor and legislators willing to consolidate two fully-built airports into one at considerable expense, (5) getting the grant assurances at CVG and DAY repaid or revoked so the properties can be sold (don't forget the third runway at CVG opened in 2005, and the DAY tower opened last year, and thus must be kept operating until 2025/2031, or the pro rated construction costs must be repaid), (6) convincing the airlines that it's a good idea and retain service at an unproven location.

 

In other words, it's not impossible, but it's extremely improbable.

 

 

A flatter site (to accomodate runways) would be that flatland south of AK Steel, say btw AK Steel and the highway from Monroe. Same benefit being halfway and also close enough to I-75.  I think that land is zoned industrial, too....

 

I wonder what OHSnap thinks about that location.

^ not sure if there's sarcasm there, but I'll address it anyway--

 

I'm less familiar with the site, but on the surface it's probably big enough, but the runways are the wrong orientation.  It still appears to have rail lines crossing the property, but I'm unaware of whether they're active.

 

Other than that, the same flaws 1-6 as above.  In fact, they hold for just about any consolidated airport, or frankly for any new airport period.  Some useful case studies could be found in the as-yet-unbuilt south suburban airport in Peotone, IL, MidAmerica in Belleville, IL, Dade-Collier TNT Airport between Miami and Ft. Myers, the struggle to build a new airport in San Diego (a cross-border airport!), etc.  About the only example of a brand new airport in the last 30 years in the US that has been successful is DEN, and they had to go miles outside of the city to get the right location. 

 

DFW is an obvious comparison, but there was a false start with Greater Southwest International for twenty years, Love Field was tied up in the courts for decades, and Fort Worth would still like air service to return to Meacham.  The only reason DFW got done was that the FAA and CAB told Dallas and Fort Worth that it would no longer fund both Love and Meacham, and instructed them to build a new airport (never mind that neither ever closed and the FAA still funds both).  As far as I know, FAA has no problem with CVG and DAY as-is.

 

I understand this thread is not about actually proposing a new airport for the Cincinnati-Dayton region, and that the larger issue here isn't access to airports but the relative weakness of what already exists.  But it's a good idea to keep in mind exactly how high the hurdles are.

There need to be some regional master plan. Im sure if an airport was built in that area. The Brent Spence bridge may not have to be replaced. Just rehabbed saving 2 billion right there.

To Make This Happen they'd have to come in and just plain buy up some of the West Chester/Mason sprawl.  Keep in mind that $100 million -- the cost of the Cincinnati Streetcar project -- could buy 400 homes at $250,000, and I don't think they need 400 subdivision homes to make this happen. 

 

What's so frustrating is none of that crap was even there until about 1995. 

 

I'm less familiar with the site, but on the surface it's probably big enough, but the runways are the wrong orientation.  It still appears to have rail lines crossing the property, but I'm unaware of whether they're active.

 

...yeah...that flatland trends E-W, and if you need N-S orientation for the runways, that wouldnt work.  I think the rail thats down there might be serving AK steel?.

 

But, yes, ultimately this would be a project that would need an LOT of money and leadership.  Especially leadership, to tackle the various show-stoppers. 

 

And I'm wondering what the cost/benefit would look like....would both CVG and Dayton be closed and redeveloped?  Then you'd have to look at operational savings vs the cost to start up a new airport.  But would both airports shut down?  I bet not...I bet the pressure would be to keep one or both open as some sort of freight or general aviation airport.  So less operational savings if that was the case!

 

This central airport really does not make a lot of sense.

 

There is a 20 post discussion about this at a civil aviation discussion forum:

Cincinnati-Dayton Metroplex

 

 

 

@@@@@

 

 

Back to more generic sprawl discussion.  The improved accessibility to the Warren/Montgomery County line area due to the Austin Blvd interchange is spawning even more development, well to the east of the interchange. 

 

Witness this zoning battle to increase density on Social Row Road, which is the name of Austin Blvd when it crosses into the Centerville/Washington Twp area:

 

Centerville planners approve rezoning

 

Despite objections, the group reverses an earlier ruling...

 

more at the link.

 

And just down the road from that, at the intersection of Social Row and SR 48, the interchange developer RG Properties, is going to develope a large mixed use development.

 

So sprawl is happening in increments and the somewhat rural character is slowing eroding away in drips and drops.  Thought there is still quite a bit of open space left south of Dayton (nothing quite as intense as the Warren County developments north of Cincy).  This isn't California-type sprawl where it seems a carpet of highly planned subdivision development rollls open across the landscape. 

 

 

 

 

^ not sure if there's sarcasm there, but I'll address it anyway--

 

no sarcasm. i was being sincere - you sound like you know what you're talking about while im basically throwing darts

It's definitely not my idea to build an airport between the two cities and connect them by rail -- I have heard it elsewhere and have even heard the talk radio losers talk about it in the last year.  To make it happen SW Ohio business leaders will have to get together, get the state to create some sort of new regional agency with the authority to tax, and the state give the project $1-3 billion with regional funding to pick up the rest of whatever the tab is.  You would want this agency to build the airport and the rail line and manage both, so it would be like how BART owns land in various California cities. 

 

Also, I don't think that this airport would have to be very big at the beginning.  You would just want the state to own all the land and to master plan what land might be needed in the future. 

 

 

 

If your and jjakucyk's theories are correct (flights getting significantly more expensive and rare due to higher fuel costs, and concentrating at a handful of major airports across the U.S.), Ohio could be in a position to build a new "Wright Bros. International Airport" to serve not only Cincinnati and Dayton but Columbus as well. They could even use the Wilmington airport for this purpose -- just build a new terminal and add high-speed rail links to each city.

 

I'm not suggesting that this could happen any time soon, but in 30 years when the average cross-country flight costs $3500 (and the number of flights has dropped massively as a result) this will seem like the obvious choice.

Incidentally, I'd bet the influx of midwest and east coast expats to Southern California in the 1960s was a direct result of commercial jet flight and the ability to easily visit relatives back in the old country.  The thought of not being able to get on a jet at short notice to go to a funeral or other family event will have some effect on the practicality of moving to the opposite coast, and will contribute to the coasts maintaining independent cultures.

^Anecdotally, that's a big reason why I turned down a multi-year assignment on the west coast.

Some planning has already started.

 

http://www.thecincinnatiherald.com/news/2012-10-27/News/One_Urban_League_for_Cincinnati_Dayton_to_cover_la.html

A new federal designation was just formed.

 

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/business/region-wins-coveted-manufacturing-communities-desi/nf8dz/

 

 

 

http://www.eda.gov/challenges/imcp/files/IMCP_2_Pager_Handout_SOAR.pdf

If Cincinnati and Dayton do merge it would most likely be a Combined Statistical Area aka CSA and not an MSA. You see Dayton still possess it's own economic identity. It has it's own airport and media market, so Dayton will somehow always be separate from Cincinnati. Contrary to popular belief, Washington and Baltimore do not share the same metro area. They are still separate. Yes I know there's Baltimore-Washington Airport but Washington has two airports of its own. Dulles and Ronald Reagan. And both cities have their own media markets as well.

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/feature/5-things/2017/02/five-things-you-need-to-know-today-and-all-hail.html?ana=e_me_set1&u=mdqxSjVwpbwLHTa%2Bxb7xwQ0dc4b18a&t=1486754104&j=77348741&s=scroll

 

Apparently getting closer.  And according to this article, the criteria are met to merge the MSAs.  Interesting.  http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/02/09/it-s-time-to-take-the-cincinnati-dayton-msa-idea.html

 

 

Um, that is a popular article and not an official document, and I suspect Cincinnati-Dayton is more likely to become a CSA than a proper MSA, which would be comparable to Washington-Baltimore.

^Hey, don't shoot the messenger.  Did you read the article?  It references the census data as supporting the MSA designation.  Now, you can certainly suggest that the head of the West Chester-Liberty Chamber Alliance doesn't know what he's talking about (though I find these chamber types seem to be pretty on top of things like this). 

 

What is your basis for saying it's more likely to be a CSA?  Is it based on your own review of the relevant census data? 

Will let's look at Cleveland-Akron. That's a CSA, and yet Cleveland and Akron are closer to each other than Cincinnati and Dayton are. Also Dayton does possess it's own economic identity. It has it's own airport and media market, and that can be comparable to Washington-Baltimore.

^I understand what you're saying, but I think that the designation of MSA vs. CSA is not based on those factors, but instead is strictly dependent on the data compiled by the census (which I am not an expert on, but I believe centers primarily on commuting patterns and the like).  I don't know that data and the criteria well enough to really speak to how likely the designation is or isn't. 

 

 

^I understand what you're saying, but I think that the designation of MSA vs. CSA is not based on those factors, but instead is strictly dependent on the data compiled by the census (which I am not an expert on, but I believe centers primarily on commuting patterns and the like).  I don't know that data and the criteria well enough to really speak to how likely the designation is or isn't.

 

About commuting patterns, most people in the Cincinnati MSA don't commute to anywhere in the Dayton MSA, or vice versa. And as it stands out only a certain part of the Cincinnati MSA commute to the Dayton area, namely the West Chester-Liberty Township area. You see I live in the Cincinnati MSA, and I certainly do not commute to Dayton, nor do any people I know who live in my vicinity. Also about the article you cited, it really seems to be based on pure speculation because I found numerous articles dating back a several years ago, and it said it could happen in the next census, but it didn't actually happen, so again it all seems to be based on pure speculation. There could also but speculation that the metro areas of Los Angeles and San Diego could merge together, and the chances of Cincinnati and Dayton's metro areas coming together are as likely as that.

 

Let me cite an article:

 

*http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/1998/11/09/story3.html from 1998 and expected to happen in the 2000 census, but didn't.

 

 

^Anecdotally, I've known several people in Cincinnati and NKY that commute to Dayton. I think it's insane, but people do it. I'd assume the reverse is more common.

Nadnerb, there are a ridiculous amount of people that live in Cincy and commute to Dayton and the same goes for living in Dayton and commuting to Cincinnati. In response to your "I don't know anyone" ... just look up any significant/large company in Dayton on LinkedIn and then click on employees. You'll see where they reside. This isn't scientific by any means, but neither is "I don't know anyone that lives in ____ and works in ____."

 

Hell, I currently live in the Dayton metro at the moment, but work in the Cincy area. I make the drive everyday. So does one of my colleagues. It's not that hard or long of a drive. Also, for almost my entire drive, I'm driving through developed land.

"Significant/large companies" do not make up the majority of employment in the US however.  Even a supposedly "ridiculous amount" of people may be only a tiny fraction of either metro area.  Plus, there's a big difference between living in Kettering and working in West Chester, and living in Erlanger and working at Wright Patt.  Both are still metro-to-metro, but they're much different commutes.  Someone get actual statistics, not anecdotes or alternative facts.

^I understand what you're saying, but I think that the designation of MSA vs. CSA is not based on those factors, but instead is strictly dependent on the data compiled by the census (which I am not an expert on, but I believe centers primarily on commuting patterns and the like).  I don't know that data and the criteria well enough to really speak to how likely the designation is or isn't.

 

About commuting patterns, most people in the Cincinnati MSA don't commute to anywhere in the Dayton MSA, or vice versa. And as it stands out only a certain part of the Cincinnati MSA commute to the Dayton area, namely the West Chester-Liberty Township area. You see I live in the Cincinnati MSA, and I certainly do not commute to Dayton, nor do any people I know who live in my vicinity. Also about the article you cited, it really seems to be based on pure speculation because I found numerous articles dating back a several years ago, and it said it could happen in the next census, but it didn't actually happen, so again it all seems to be based on pure speculation. There could also but speculation that the metro areas of Los Angeles and San Diego could merge together, and the chances of Cincinnati and Dayton's metro areas coming together are as likely as that.

 

Let me cite an article:

 

*http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/1998/11/09/story3.html from 1998 and expected to happen in the 2000 census, but didn't.

 

 

 

I understand that it hasn't happened before.  I also am not particularly caring if it does happen or doesn't.  But I do know that the article says that the commuting criteria are being met, according to this guy.  Like I said, I haven't looked at the data (and I wouldn't know what to look at anyway), but just pointing out that people have talked about it in the past and it didn't get the designation doesn't mean that commuting patterns haven't changed. 

 

As jjakucyk said, it's all well and good to talk anecdotally--if someone knows what they're looking for in the data and takes a look at it, maybe we will see if this article has validity or not. 

I think this is fairly simple if someone wants to do the math.

 

https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/ (County to County Commuting Flows)

Go to link (Only from 2009-2013 though), go to all the counties in the Cincinnati MSA, add up all the commuters inbound from Dayton metro counties.

 

Find the percentage of commuters into Cincinnati MSA from Dayton MSA, then do the same vice versa.

 

What does the percentage need to be as percentage of workers?  I have no idea how to do the math on that, I could only figure out how many people are travling from Dayton Metro Counties to Cincy Metro counties and vice versa

 

Edit: I believe you do the math as for example Warren County (Cincy Metro) # of all inbound workers from Dayton Metro / # of all inbound workers total

 

Do that for each county (Hamilton, Warren, Butler, Kenton, Campbell, etc.) so total Cincinnati # inbound workers from Dayton Metro / # of all inbound workers total

 

That should give a certain % say 20% and then it has to equal what the MSA Designation needs to be which may be like 30%?

*To note on the excel spreadsheet, some of the numbers are seriously jacked up so they say for example Warren County has 10 commuters a day from Akron, OH metro but the error margin is 25, which makes no sense as it takes it negative.

 

I think you could do this as follows would be simple:

 

Cincy Metro inbound workers from only Dayton Metro Counties

 

Divided by

 

Cincy Metro inbound workers from only Cincy metro counties (including their own county itself) + Cincy Metro inbound workers from only Dayton Metro counties = Total Inbound workers to Cincy Metro

 

 

 

Then you can do the reverse.

 

There obviously is a lot of turnover for example Warren County (Cincy Metro):

 

Total inbound workers from Cincy and Dayton metro = 97,850

 

Total inbound workers to Warren County (Cincy Metro) from Dayton Metro Counties = 15,401

 

Percentage of Warren County (Cincy Metro) inbound workers from Dayton Metro Counties = 15,401 / 97,850 = 15.74%

 

*Quick View of Stats using eyeball test* Northern Cincy metro counties - Way more commuters from Dayton Metro than Northern Kentucky

 

 

NOW - This could be all wrong if the Census states from say Dayton's metro counties to the principal county in the other metro, then that would actually make all this math a lot easier.

 

"Significant/large companies" do not make up the majority of employment in the US however.  Even a supposedly "ridiculous amount" of people may be only a tiny fraction of either metro area.  Plus, there's a big difference between living in Kettering and working in West Chester, and living in Erlanger and working at Wright Patt.  Both are still metro-to-metro, but they're much different commutes.  Someone get actual statistics, not anecdotes or alternative facts.

 

Oh, I completely understand. I'll reiterate ... My comment was not meant to be scientific by any means. I'm just saying if you look at medium to large companies in Dayton/Cincinnati you will see a decent % of employees that live in the opposite city. Could be they don't want to take the kids out of their current school system, shared parenting issue, don't want to live in an urban environment, more income opportunity, better jobs, where they grew up, outside work obligations, ill parents, etc. There's a number of different reasons why people choose to commute. Again, it's not a bad drive at all! I can drive to 275/75 quicker than you can from anywhere within the 45202 zip code.

Warren County is sort of weird in how the northeastern part of the county is definitely more closely tied to the Dayton metro even though the whole county get counted as part of Cincinnati's MSA. Springboro is definitely Dayton exurban sprawl. It would be interesting to see with that census data how many are actually traversing the entire county for work, but I don't think it offers that level of fidelity.

I always think of Route 63 as the "border" between the metro areas.  It's appropriate the Cincinnati Premium Outlets is on the southside and the Miami Valley Casino is on the northside.  Also, that whole "Welcome to the Aviation Heritage Region" sign thing on I-75 kinda validates it (along with the Cassano's vs. LaRosa's line).

Serious question: Is there any significant benefit to the region if the two regions become grouped together in the same MSA? Like, will Cin-Day get more federal funds if classified as the same metro area, or is it more of just a Cincinnati hubris thing?

I don't know if it means much from a federal funds standpoint but it will better allow Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Dayton to compete for larger projects and get more national recognition because it is now the 18th largest region in the country instead of 32nd and 56th?? respectively.

 

A combined region will allow Cincy to better compete against peer cities like Charlotte who are growing faster but also boast a much larger MSA area than Cincinnati.

I don't know if it means much from a federal funds standpoint but it will better allow Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Dayton to compete for larger projects and get more national recognition because it is now the 18th largest region in the country instead of 32nd and 56th?? respectively.

 

A combined region will allow Cincy to better compete against peer cities like Charlotte who are growing faster but also boast a much larger MSA area than Cincinnati.

 

How exactly does increasing the area the MSA is pulling from help Cincy compete with somewhere like Charlotte? If Dayton and Cincy merge it doesn't automatically mean any more people live in any one place in the area. It doesn't change the demographics at all. The only thing happening is the area of the MSA is increasing as well as the population.

 

Merging the two is nice in terms of moving the Cincy MSA up in the rankings, but it really doesn't change anything about the city or region in reality.  It's not like it's a secret that Dayton and Cincy are in the same region of Ohio. Developers are well aware.  I'm struggling to understand how this would really change anything other than impacting the rankings of largest MSAs.

It is more first impressions are everything. Yes, it changes nothing substantive and developers can get the data when they dig into the numbers but it creates that first impression of a top 20 market instead of a top 40 market, even if it is the same market. For example, a developer gives a site selector a project to find suitable locations within top 20 markets in the Eastern time zone. Now Cincinnati/Dayton show up, where before they may have been initially overlooked.

I think this is fairly simple if someone wants to do the math.

 

https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/ (County to County Commuting Flows)

Go to link (Only from 2009-2013 though), go to all the counties in the Cincinnati MSA, add up all the commuters inbound from Dayton metro counties.

 

Find the percentage of commuters into Cincinnati MSA from Dayton MSA, then do the same vice versa.

 

What does the percentage need to be as percentage of workers?  I have no idea how to do the math on that, I could only figure out how many people are travling from Dayton Metro Counties to Cincy Metro counties and vice versa

 

Edit: I believe you do the math as for example Warren County (Cincy Metro) # of all inbound workers from Dayton Metro / # of all inbound workers total

 

Do that for each county (Hamilton, Warren, Butler, Kenton, Campbell, etc.) so total Cincinnati # inbound workers from Dayton Metro / # of all inbound workers total

 

That should give a certain % say 20% and then it has to equal what the MSA Designation needs to be which may be like 30%?

 

You can also find the data here if you know how to work it.

 

https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

 

Also many people at Ford in Sharonville where I work lives in the Dayton metro.

 

10.7% of Dayton workers(33,388) work in the Cincinnati Metro.

11.2% of Dayton workers(36,861)  live in the Cincinnati Metro.

21.9% is the exchange rate of the two metros involving 70249 workers. 

2014 data

 

 

I did not use all workers such as farming or the number would be greater. I used primary workers.

^those numbers are less than I thought they would be based on the hype but, I don't know what the threshold is for combining them.

 

I guess you could look at a place like Baltimore and DC to look, as that is a CSA by the Census Bureau.  If the rate of exchange is around 20% like this is, then I would say you can combine them into a CSA

I always think of Route 63 as the "border" between the metro areas.  It's appropriate the Cincinnati Premium Outlets is on the southside and the Miami Valley Casino is on the northside.  Also, that whole "Welcome to the Aviation Heritage Region" sign thing on I-75 kinda validates it (along with the Cassano's vs. LaRosa's line).

 

I think of it as Cincinnati metro including the Middletown exits. I guess it's debatable because it gets so fuzzy. Which is why we are probably really close to one metro now.

Yeah, I think Dayton and Cincinnati "share" Middletown in their respective local psyche.

Poor kid. Mom lost her job at NCR, and Dad has a heroin problem and built a model train in the basement but didn't want to spend more than $10 on it so it only goes in a circle.