I know I asked this before, but we have some new people signing on, so I wanted to ask this again.

 

How many people need to be living in downtown for it to be a functioning neighborhood?  And when do you expect that to happen in Cleveland?

 

Just wondering   

40k maybe?

Of course the magic number tossed about is 25K - I'm not sure who, how, or what decided that but oh well. Honestly, if Cleveland had 15K downtown I think we'd see a substantially improved street "scene". I guess it depends on how you define "functioning".

MayDay's right at 25k.  That's a standard based on the retail market for a typical full-service grocery store, which acts as an anchor for a standard neighborhood retail district.  Notice I keep saying standard.  These things can vary greatly depending on the specifics of a neighborhood.  Also, I don't know how well that applies to a downtown, because there are all sorts of workers and other visitors coming downtown, and also higher expectations for the level of activity one should see.  Basically, I'm saying that its anyone's guess, but 25k is as good as any.

for critical mass i always remember hearing a resident number and a worker number..........

The Warehouse District will benefit from both a resident and worker mass. All the Cleveland needs is momentum.  Momentum will bring business.  25k is a whiles off, but we still hear about grocery and book stores in the flats.  Just keep the condos coming.  If Disctrict Park comes around and is successful, it is only a matter of time. 

 

In a way, Cleveland is splintered. Ohio City, Cleveland Heights, Tremont, West Shore are all competing.  They are progressing nicely, but also are hindering each other.  Sure wish that we could fast forward..

A respected urban design consultant that looked at cities with vibrant downtowns/urban cores found that having 10 percent of the overall municipality's population living downtown was the benchmark for creating the critical mass you've spoken of. The consultant said only six U.S. cities met that benchmark -- Boston, Chicago, New York City, Portland (OR), San Francisco and Seattle.

 

But, 25,000 people living in downtown Cleveland would be a huge step forward. Don't forget there's an average of 2,000 people "living" at the county jail, which the Census includes in its tract counts.

 

KJP

 

How many people does Cleveland have living downtown now?  Are you anywhere near 25K?

I'm not sure, but I think it's somewhere between 6,000 and 8,000. That's why I say 25K would be a huge step forward. There appears to be a large untapped market for core city housing (especially for-sale housing), as each new development fills up pretty quickly. So, all the developments in the core (downtown, Tremont, Ohio City, etc) aren't competing with each other. Each offers different features and settings.

 

The problem with downtown is all those surface parking lots. They make too much money right now, and thus are too valuable for developers to make money at buying them and putting structures on them. And a tax placed on them could be viewed as punitive, which is unconstitutional, although the city could argue financial hardship if it taxed all of them as an opportunity cost to the community. Or it could seek to acquire them through eminent domain as the parking lots represent a visual blight, but the city hasn't been willing to go that route.

 

KJP

Wow...that is a very long ways to go.  Even something as big as the Pinnacle only has what, 80 units?  So it might add 160 people to the total.  I never really thought about that math before, but that kind of population growth would have to take an extremely long time...

 

And on the lots, the more surface lots you can take away to build on, the more valuable the remaining lots become - the task gets harder as you move forward...

The same problems pester Cincinnati. About 2 or 3 entities own 90% of the surface lots downtown. And, those guys would rather hold onto the cash cow parking lots than see something positive done with the land. For instance, the guy who rehabbed my apartment building tried to buy the ugly surface lot across the street in hopes of converting it to greenspace, but the guy who owns it refused to sell. He's holding onto the lot in hopes that he can sell it to Chichita at a high premium. I guess he thinks they're gonna build a second tower one day. Translation, the lot will continue to be a surface lot for many many years.

 

 

^ Robert Chavez, anyone?

Well, in Cleveland's case, for those in the know, are we seeing slow and steady growth, or a bit of exponential growth.

For instance, in 1990 what maybe 1000 residents, in 2000 maybe 2000 and in 2005, 6000.

 

being an enginerd, I plotted those numbers and made a linear trendline and an exponential.  The linear trend line had 8,000 residents in 2015, the exponential had 15,000 residents in 2015.  (I used excel)

 

yes, I am a geek.  If anyone has more accurate numbers I could refigure.  :-D

 

^ i'm not sure downtown growth is at an exponential rate yet. i think the numbers of the first few years are misleading as they were so low at the start. i'd still call it steady growth given the larger context of the continuing boom in the nationwide urban living real estate trend.

 

no, not fast enough for any of us, but in reality there is nothing wrong with that.

 

it will take a better economy and some big projects to come online like a revived district park, that new east 12th activity, the east flats and some others to give it enough kick to rachet it up to true exponential growth. if say two of those actually are built and fly, many many others will want to jump on board.

 

i am optimistic something like that could very well happen at some tipping point --- my example is something like downtown san diego. they've had enormous recent downtown residential growth. cleveland is tantalizingly close to getting some real residential energy like that going downtown --- even despite setbacks like district park.

 

ps--i'd say critical mass is like 15-20k, if its concentrated enough. gettin there!

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe the city can use some designation to steal land and get a developer to do something.

A respected urban design consultant that looked at cities with vibrant downtowns/urban cores found that having 10 percent of the overall municipality's population living downtown was the benchmark for creating the critical mass you've spoken of. The consultant said only six U.S. cities met that benchmark -- Boston, Chicago, New York City, Portland (OR), San Francisco and Seattle.

KJP

 

 

Having moved from Philly, I can say that consultant must not have visited Philly in a very long time.  The Center City district has more people living in it now than at any time in history, and it supports 6 (off the top of my head) supermarkets.  More philadelphians walk to work than in any other american city.  I just read that an estimated 90K people live in center city (1.4Million total) with thousands of housing units under construction.  just my $.02 since I spent a long time there.

I should have said the consultant, at that time, felt that only six cities met the benchmark. "At that time" was in the mid 1990s or so. I haven't done much traveling around Philadelphia since the late 80s, but I liked a lot of what saw then. I've seen pictures since, showing a lot of new development and restoration work.

 

KJP

Really though, is all of Center City downtown?  I thought that Center City would be the equivalent of downtown and all the immediately adjacent neighborhoods.

punch is right, Cleveland's come light years in a short period of time.  Let's not forget, Cleveland has not had people living downtown since we were a small town in the late 19th Century (like the 1880s and before).  For better or worse, the very industry that caused us to grow by leaps and bounds from that period to the Stock Market crash of 1929 fueled RE speculators like Pat Calhoun and the Van Sweringens to extend trolleys and rapid lines to encourage people to move up to places like the Heights (and to Lakewood, Rocky River and Bay Vill on the West Side) and to live away from the urban core.  Meanwhile, our downtown was (since the late 1800s)  ringed by a combo of freight rail lines and the deep, industrial valley we call the Flats.  All that development encouraged factories on rail sidings and industrialization that choked off the once upscale residential areas like upper Prospect (and those gorgeous row houses) and fashionable Millionaire's Row even way back in the 1920s.  We simply developed differently from other big cities, even industrial ones like Chicago.  And even sad-sack Detroit managed to maintain some luxury, high-density res development along it's east riverfront along Jefferson Street. 

 

Even in the halcyon/salad days of downtown KJP (and my parents) like to reminisce about, we were NEVER a downtown living town but always a commuter downtown with folks (like my family) going there to work, eat, see a ball game, etc. as opposed to living down there and walking out your door for all those things.  Simply put, the Cleveland downtown you see today is a Cleveland that has never existed before.  We are not reviving anything in our history.  Instead, we are emulating the Bostons, Torontos and Chicagos of the world and it's exciting to watch (if we could keep our collective eyes on the prize).  So I always stop myself when I knock our lack of downtown living situation.  It's always important to realize where you've come from as opposed to knocking where you are right now -- although few here are doing that -- you guys are too hip for that.

 

Good posts, Clvlndr.  Welcome to the site.

With the new projects about to break ground, anyone feel like pondering this again?

Punch,

 

You really dug this one up.

 

Assuming all the projects go forward and sell well, we will approach a critical mass. Still, most of these projects are somewhat isolated from each other.  I view Stark's as the one that has the greatest catalytic effect (West Bank as well, but that one seems more long term) because it will be located close to all of the housing units in the WHD. 

I remember reading that 15k was the tipping point for a downtown resident population.  Can't remember where I read that though!

A respected urban design consultant that looked at cities with vibrant downtowns/urban cores found that having 10 percent of the overall municipality's population living downtown was the benchmark for creating the critical mass you've spoken of. The consultant said only six U.S. cities met that benchmark -- Boston, Chicago, New York City, Portland (OR), San Francisco and Seattle.

 

But, 25,000 people living in downtown Cleveland would be a huge step forward. Don't forget there's an average of 2,000 people "living" at the county jail, which the Census includes in its tract counts.

 

KJP

 

I would like to add Philadelphia and San Diego and to a lesser extent Washington, DC but what are DC "downtown" boundaries?

Well, in Cleveland's case, for those in the know, are we seeing slow and steady growth, or a bit of exponential growth.

For instance, in 1990 what maybe 1000 residents, in 2000 maybe 2000 and in 2005, 6000.

 

being an enginerd, I plotted those numbers and made a linear trendline and an exponential.  The linear trend line had 8,000 residents in 2015, the exponential had 15,000 residents in 2015.  (I used excel)

 

yes, I am a geek.  If anyone has more accurate numbers I could refigure.  :-D

 

What downtown boundaries are we using?  I'm always confused.  Some people say Public Square to 24 Street;  the WHD to "the innerbelt" (which slopes);  Some say (east to west) the West Bank of the Flats to 30 Street and (north to south) from Bway/Orange (the main post office) to I-90.  what are the damn boundaries?

 

I've heard there are 9,500 (not including the 2k in jail) living in the WHD; 1000 in the West bank, 700 in Gateway/playhouse Sq and 2,000 on the East 13 Corridor, 1,000. in the artist loft/superior area and 500 or so up on prospect/Carnegie living  "downtown".  That right there is 14,700 people (not including the 2k in jail)

 

I think we're all interested in the boundaries/neighborhoods used to define "downtown Cleveland" and what the approximate number of people living in those neighborhoods right now!

 

I remember reading that 15k was the tipping point for a downtown resident population.  Can't remember where I read that though!

 

I vaguely remember when it was 20k (I think this was right after TC opened), then all of a sudden it was 25k.

 

When I was at SOHIO we had a initiative to help repopulate the city since we had such a vested interest.

 

:?

SOHIO=BP right?

SOHIO=BP right?

 

I will NEVER call SOHIO "that" word!

I believe the city considers downtown as being within the boundaries of the river, lake and Inner Belt.

 

Until the next census tract data comes out, a good way to figure out current and future housing is to take the number of housing units and multiply by them 1.5 people. Steve Strnisha says the Flats East Bank project will likely have about 500 residents in its 340 units. That works out to about 1.47 people per unit.

 

Strnisha also said downtown has about 10,000 residents (including the 2K in county jail). He believes downtown will see start to reach the point of critical mass when the population hits 15,000. It shouldn't take long to reach that.

I certainly don't dispute that 15,000 would be a great milestone, but the number I've been hearing lately is 25k.  That's from Ned Hill, economist and Brookings fellow at CSU.  Then again, that may just be what he considers the ideal, but not necessarily the "critical mass."

 

I also agree with what Wimwar said...if you have 15k spread from the Flats West Bank to CSU, that's not going to be nearly as critical as having 10k from Old River Road to E. 13th Street.

By the way, if you check out the Cleveland Neighborhood Market Drilldown (which I like to use), the Downtown Strategic Planning Area (as defined by the City of Cleveland) featured the following in 2000:

 

Drilldown                                                          Census

2,208 housing units                                            3,813 housing units

21 vacant housing units                                      1,255 vacant housing units

2,187 households (also the # of occ. units)            2,558 households (also the # of occ. units)

6,145 population                                                5,960 population

 

There's much more detail and data at http://www.nhlink.net/socialcompact/district3.htm

 

This is all on 2.91 square miles contained in the area demarcated in the following map...

 

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/cbongorno/CNMDDistrict3.jpg

How many housing units were added downtown since 2000?

 

And I assume that the 6,000 population is just in the downtown area, not in all of District 3 (which I also assume goes all the way down to South Broadway?).

^Right, the numbers above are for the portion of that map that is labeled as "Downtown," not for the entire District 3 area.  This "Downtown" is defined by the City of Cleveland, but the districts were created for the purposes of the Drilldown study alone.

 

Not sure about the number of new units added since 2000... that's the million dollar question, eh?

By the way, if you check out the Cleveland Neighborhood Market Drilldown (which I like to use), the Downtown Strategic Planning Area (as defined by the City of Cleveland) featured the following in 2000:

 

Drilldown                                                          Census

2,208 housing units                                            3,813 housing units

21 vacant housing units                                      1,255 vacant housing units

2,187 households (also the # of occ. units)            2,558 households (also the # of occ. units)

6,145 population                                                5,960 population

 

Uh, this may be a dumb question, but what is a drilldown? Looks like a different form of gauging population and housing, but where is it used and who sets the criteria?

Building on what KJP said, I got to thinking, what number of units will current projects add to the downtown population? (Numbers are approximate)

 

Avenue: 400

Flats East Bank: 340

Stark-Warehouse District Phase I: 300?

Eli Mann (E. 9th and Euclid): maybe 75?

Apartments above "The Corner Alley," E4th and Euclid: maybe 25?

(David Goldberg's 15-story tower at 515 Euclid seems a far-off dream.)

 

That's 1,140 new units. Assuming they'll have an average of 1.47 occupants (using the FEB figure), that's 1,676 people. Throw in CSU's Fenn Tower, with housing for about 400 students, and we're up to 2,076.

 

This is rather sobering. A couple thousand new residents will hardly "tip" downtown, even using optimistic current population estimates of 10,000. We'd only be at about 12,000.

 

Even if you add current and future units on the Flats West Bank -- which the city does not consider part of downtown -- we'd probably be at around 15,000, still not enough to anchor a full-service grocery store. And of course, none of these projects (except Fenn and E4th) have actually broken ground yet and could founder at any time, making downtown's immediate future even more tenuous.

 

Perhaps it's time we start thinking about a "Center City," rather than a downtown, as Philadelphia does. Then we could include traditional residential neighborhoods that are adjacent to the CBD: Ohio City and Chinatown and to a lesser extent Tremont. As the above numbers show, it's quite difficult and time-consuming to build a neighborhood from scratch.

^I agree that we need a way of measuring downtown and the surrounding neighborhoods as a "Center City" area.  Sadly, Steelyard Commons is the only entity I have seen attempt to do this.  It would be great if we could get the neighborhoods surrounding downtown to look to downtown (as opposed to Steelyard or the burbs) as the place to find things they can't get in their own neighborhood.  The city is currently leaving a lot of potential on the table in its leveraging of the economic impact of the population surrounding downtown.

 

As to the impact of upcoming projects, hopefully when we add the next 1,440 units, we will reach a tipping point making it that much easier to attract the next 5,000.  Maybe that is wishful thinking, but I have to hope that eventually we reach a point when folks start to jump on the bandwagon.  A project like Stark's could go a long way toward making that happen.

If Stark follows the Warehouse District's masterplan, the number of units in the "powerblock" could easily tip 600 (that doesn't include the parcel NW of the West 3rd/St. Clair intersection that's part of this). Look for a similar number of units in the block east of East 9th.

 

So delete that 300 number for Stark and replace it with at least 600 for the so-called first phase (which we're all assuming that it would be). And potentially could be 1,200 units for the area bounded by West 9th, St. Clair, West 3rd and Superior.

 

Should we add Lighthouse Landing to this? If so, that's another 228 units in the mix (instead of Wolstein keeping that property as a freaking parking lot!).

My estimate for Stark's project is significantly higher.

 

He has said that he wants to build 6 million sq ft of office/retail.  I don't know the mix, but say it's 50/50 for the sake of argument.  That's still 3 million sq ft of residential.  I'd guess that an average upscale apartment (averaging across number of bedrooms, as well) is somewhere in the range of 1,000 sq ft, so that gives us 3,000 units.  It could be anywhere up to 6,000 depending on the mix, or more if the units are smaller (or less of course if the mix is less that 50% residential or the units are really large). 

 

We could lose some units as well if he is giving gross numbers that include access and service space, but the point is basically the same- Starks' project is massive.

The city sure has come far in the year since this thread was started.  Hopefully the momentum will continue.

 

I think the critical mass will happen when there is are seemless transitions between neighborhoods / developments.  They are still islands to themselves a bit.

Tom Bier says the magic number is 1% of a region's population. For Cleveland, that's 25,000 to 30,000 people.

City’s slicker

More housing, amenities make downtown an enticing place to live

By CHRISSY KADLECK

6:00 am, August 28, 2006

 

Downtown living never sounded sweeter if you listen to the buzz of developers who are circling the Flats, Warehouse District and East 12th and St. Clair looking to land their residential projects and entice more to live, work and play in the city’s core.

 

http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-5806763/CITY-S-SLICKER-More-housing.html

 

 

Costas Mavromichalis, owner of Constantino’s Market in the Bingham Building on West Ninth Street in the Warehouse District, said he is encouraged by developers’ plans and has his own plan to expand his market within the next year, adding another 3,500 square feet to the 10,000-square-foot gourmet grocery. Constantino’s opened in January 2005.

 

The timing of the expansion will have “a lot to do with the further development of the downtown area,” he said, pointing specifically to Wolstein’s and Stark’s proposals. “But we have been so far encouraged by the traffic flow that we have in our store.”

 

“I am encouraged in that I am sensing a feeling of community down here that people are starting to feel that this is a residential area,” Mr. Mavromichalis said. “It is very important to see that amongst the residents and amongst the vendors.”

 

They got off to a slow rocky start but now it seems as though they have made a major impact on the area. I'm please to hear that they are thinking of expanding.

They always seem to be doing very good business.

yeah, especially if the expansion would involve some canned goods, more fresh food choices, etc. 

 

it is a perfect place for wine, prepared foods, cheeses, milk, beer, and picking up some random products.  but, there isn't a whole lot of overall product selection.

 

i wish that the reserve square market was run and was kept up like constantinos, and i wish constantinos had a liitle bit bigger selection of foods overall.

I was in there twice on Saturday and there were at least a couple customers ready to check out at all times.  It's not like Dave's or any other "super"market, though...I didn't see anyone pushing a cart around or walking out with arms full of groceries.  But that's not how they're set up.  I'm glad to hear they're doing well!

 

I'm also wondering about the following quote:

 

“The obvious benefit to living downtown is financial, with tax abatements,” said Barbara Reynolds, president of Realty One Real Living,

 

Perhaps it was a mis-quote, to say "THE" because she goes on to state what I think is even more important:

 

"You can walk to baseball, football, theaters, night life, and just that whole excitement about being in the central city, not the least of which many can walk to work.”

Yeah, the cool thing about downtown Cleveland to me is, a lot of the coolest residential neighborhoods don't even exist yet. That seems like a real perk to today's real estate developers who don't really value "the old."

here's the point that i was very happy to see in print:

 

If you ask Mr. Rains to name the single thing that could be done to improve the downtown housing market, he would tell you “build a school.”

 

i hope developers & the city are keying into that. nothing will take off like everyone wants it to until there is a place for families too.

That's where I see a lot of opportunity for the northeast part of Downtown.  Further down the road, it could be built out as a residential quadrant and have parks and schools and such...all inside the innerbelt and within walking distance of everything Downtown.

the tax abatement thread got me thinking about this discusstion.

 

 

"bump"

 

 

Mr. Cimperman acknowledged that the Warehouse District, which began a transformation over 20 years ago from an ignored commercial district to a place with about 3,000 residents living in rehabbed historic buildings and a few dozen restaurants and bars, needs to stay fresh. -from the Warehouse Dist. streetscape thread

 

I just wanted to check the scoreboard, is downtown at 10,000 residents yet?

3,000 in the warehouse district.

Reserve Square, Statler, Avenue dist, + public housing = 2000?

Gateway + E. 4th = 1000?

CSU + Asiatown = 1000?

 

Anyone have accurate numbers, or a more educated guess?

 

Gateway is creeping up on 2,000.

Does that include the theater district? 

In what district will 668 be?