I came across a joint planning document for Dayton and Kettering and it had some info that is not readily available to the public, but was mapped out in this study, so thought it would be intersting to share with the group (at least those of you interested in Dayton).

 

The document was for, I think, a housing or homeless avoidance plan of some sort, but it has some basic research on housing in the city and Kettering.  Kettering not so thorough, but pretty good coverage for Dayton.

 

Taking the information, and then overlaying some of it (based on Ian McHargs landscape analyses approach...which he also used for social pathology), might be a predictor of future declining areas in Dayton.

 

First a map of median housing value

 

 

....then, a very interesting map showing areas of decline or increase of average housing sales prices.  This doesnt measure how much, just whether prices went down or up, over a four year period

 

 

...then a map of foreclosures over a 2.5 year period:

 

 

Then assuming those foreclosed get evicted, the vacancy rate (which would also include apartments, of course). Assumption:  less demand means lower sales prices and more vacancys.

 

 

Then housing with structural deficiencies, implies where housing deterioration is happening...

 

 

 

...and elevated blood lead levels in children, showing the hazmat issues with old houses and apartments.

 

 

Then, the bottom of the market..."nuisance demolitions".

 

 

finishing up with the poverty rate.

 

 

Using the McHarg "overlay technique" (to some degree...he used bum wad and shades of gray felt-tips, this uses color, symbols, and .ppt):

 

Overlaying mortgage foreclosures, declines in sale price, and vacancys ("maket" factors).....

 

 

 

...and then structural deficiencies, blood lead level clusters, vacancys, and decline in sales price (more "condition factors" plus a market factor).

 

 

Putting it all together for a perfect storm of urban decline, with areas with a lot of overlapping factors + what I know of some of the areas, to predict the 21st century slums of Dayton.  I didn't circle areas that have extremly high vacancys and demolitions, as I figure these areas are bottoming out already.  I was looking at further out areas that might hit the skids over the next 20 years.

 

 

This doesnt look at sociological things like crime rate, drugs, unemployment, etc which also plays into things.

 

As this study also looked at Kettering, I will take a closer look at Kettering at a later date (and at Huber Heights..notice how that big gray area of declining average house sales price extends up into Huber).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting.

Interesting is a vast understatement.  This is fascinating stuff.  Excellent data to work from.  I'll have to look at it in more detail, but barring some major methodology problem, this is excellent work.

 

  Excellent work, again. Thanks for posting.

I'll have to look at it in more detail, but barring some major methodology problem, this is excellent work.

 

..if yr interested, here is more on that overlay technique.

 

Ian McHarg: Overlay Maps & the Evaluation of Social and Environmental Costs of Land Use Change

 

...and more of a critique of the method from a modern-day perspective:

 

Book Review:  Design with Nature

 

What I did wasn't exactley what McHarg did as I had limitations with .ppt, which is why you see the symbols and outlines as well as shades of color on my maps.

 

 

I find these sort of topics very interesting. I'm amazed how relatively well the east side of Dayton is doing currently (certainly not great though). Also, it would seem South Park might be a good investment area—home prices that are rising with a fair amount of foreclosure (time to find a steal!). Plus there are a lot of other factors going on in South Park right now.

 

Why is the Oregon District in the $80,000–120,000 range? Shouldn't that be much higher? Also, why is the vacancy rate so high?

When looking at the poverty rate map, this is definitely obsolete data as far as the CBD is concerned.  Most of the condos that have been built in the past 5 years are also the most expensive properties in the entire city.  In fact, many are more expensive per sq foot than most suburban properties.  I don't know of any low income or subsidized housing in the CBD besides the Biltmore Tower (old folks home), so I wonder what current data would show.

 

As for most of the rest of Dayton, this data is probably still accurate today.  I imagine things in many neighborhoods have gotten quite worse, especially with so much predatory lending and an explosion of foreclosures in the past year.  Sad...

 

 

Billy,

 

Just to add a bit of info to your post....

 

I certainly agree that many of the high-dollar residential properties in the City of Dayton are in the CBD/Webster Station area (Performance Place, Ice Av. Lofts, Cooper Lofts, etc.).  The other main area would be in the far northeast off of Kitridge Rd.  New houses there are going in the 250,000-300,000+ range.  Incidently (and unfortunately), a lot of the builders in those Northeast housing plats actually market themsleves as Huber Heights, althougth they're actually City of Dayton.  Some other City high-dollar homes also exist along the Dayton/Oakwood/Kettering borders in south Dayton.

 

As far as low income housing downtown, in addition to the Biltmore, we also have the Holden House at 211 S. Wilkinson, and Wilkinson Plaza at 126 W. Fifth.  A few other smaller low-income buildings also exist.  All of these, of course, are renter-occupied though.

^

That northeast area has Huber or Riverside schools, too, even though it is technically within the city limits of Dayton. so you don't have an underpeforming school district driving down housing demand.

 

The poverty rate map also shows a lot down in that tract south of downtown, along the southern city limits.  I can't account for that unless this is counting UD students. 

 

For downtown, back in 2000 I dont think all those lofts and such had come on line yet, and the Moraine Embassy was still open, so the numbers of people in higher density places like the Biltmore and those propertys on 5th and maybe Newcom Manor (a cool building that could be fun) could have really skewed the numbers, swamping the more upper income people in the Landing/YMCA.

 

Now, with those new downtown/Webster Station places online the income numbers will improve for downtown.

 

For that south of downtown corridor, Oregon/South Park/Fairgrounds/UD area (say, roughly, Brown Street), I think the fundamentals are there. Oregon is solid, and South Park will be getting there. Fairgrounds is already turning around after all that money that has been pumped in (as well as a lot of demolition).  Combine that with that big plan UD has for the old NCR site, and being close to Oakwood and the start of the Far Hills corridor, and this could be a hot in-town area

 

 

Combine that with that big plan UD has for the old NCR site...

 

I'd love to see the site map for that project once they get working on it.